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Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
5
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Breakout Potential and Targeted Upsidehello guys! The Bitcoin (BTC) price chart shows a strong upward trend after breaking out from a key resistance level. The breakout occurred around January 20, 2025, when the price surged through a horizontal resistance zone. The bullish momentum suggests that the price is headed toward the next significant resistance level near $110,000, marked by a potential target zone highlighted on the chart. what I see: Breakout Confirmation: BTC has successfully broken out from a consolidation zone, as indicated by the strong upward movement after the breakout. Bullish Channel: The price is trading within an upward-sloping channel, with the breakout occurring near the middle of the channel. This suggests that the market has significant upward potential. Potential Resistance: The next critical resistance lies at the $110,000 level, and if the price continues to gain momentum, it could reach $115,000, as seen in the forecasted range. Support Level: A major support level lies near $99,000, which could provide a strong base for any short-term pullbacks.
Long
by melikatrader94
4
Skyrexio | Bitcoin BTC Has Cancelled The Bear Market!Hello, Skyrexians! Last month BINANCE:BTCUSDT has clearly broken $100k. Most of people think that it's too late now to buy Bitcoin because price is too high, but our analysis tells us that it was only one half of the potential bull run. Let's take a look at the monthly time frame. We can see the new Elliott Wave structure. Earlier we had a chance that this bull run could be the wave 5, but recently the Awesome Oscillator broke the previous high. The potential bearish divergence has been broken as well. Moreover, Fractal Trend Detector shows that this bull run is strong and no single sign of weakness now. This is large wave 3 which has the target at least at $125k, but most likely it will hit $190k in 2025. Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Long
by Skyrexio
BITCOINUSD TECHANICALL ANALYSIS FOR H1 (READ CAOTION)hello trader's. what do you think about bitcoinusd current price: 105000 Today BitcoinUSD Just Touch The Last High Area 105700 We See Some Retestmint in BitcoinUSD it can be good Retest in BitcoinUSD Now we Have H1 Channel Pattern So bitcoinusd going to toching Resistance zone 106500 then bitcoinusd Fall Down side to Support 101500 then expected 97500 support 95500.94500 resistance zone. 10580o . 107000 please like comment and follow
Short
by THE_WINING_HUB
10
Bitcoin - Lofty Promises, Disturbing Results: My Crypto Journey.I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change. Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here: November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin? January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout. May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists. December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run. April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle? October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated? February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue. March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic. September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems. February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon? Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now. December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over. January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me. May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work. July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market. January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera. August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created. November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high. January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented. I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market. Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. studio.glassnode.com It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating. Now for a little TA: This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks: This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top. The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k. This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period: Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence: The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week. If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again. Let's see what happens! Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
Buy When Others Sell, Sell When Others Buy – Time to Reflect.The current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish. The anticipation surrounding Trump’s inauguration and the potential for pro-crypto regulations has created massive optimism for continued upside. But isn’t this the perfect time to ask – is now a good moment to lock in some profits? On the chart, I’m showcasing two of my custom indicators: PrimeMomentum Long Term Signal BTC and Weekly Peak Finder. Both indicators are based on long-term analysis and have historically been extremely reliable at identifying key market turning points. Current Situation 🔸 Both indicators have flashed simultaneously. Historically, such occurrences are rare and have consistently signaled significant downward movements. 🔸 Historical correction analysis: For Weekly Peak Finder, after a bearish signal: - The first correction resulted in a 25% drop. - The second correction saw a 65% drop. - Now, with both indicators flashing together, the market has only dropped by around 5%. This is the smallest correction in history following such combined signals. Is this really it, or is the market preparing for a larger move downward? Can we assume this time is different and the correction is over? Or is the current euphoria and optimism masking a potential larger drop? My Decision Considering the historical reliability of these indicators and the fact that both are flashing simultaneously, I’ve decided to lock in 50% of my BTC position. This approach allows me to secure profits while still leaving room for potential further upside. Is the market gearing up for a historic rally, or is this the perfect setup for a deeper correction? I’d love to hear your thoughts – what’s your take on this setup?
Short
by SetKryptoBalans
4
Public trade #11 - #BTC price analysis ( Bitcoin )At the moment, the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price is making an A-B-C correction within the channel quite harmoniously. The idea is as follows: 🔽now the market is correcting for a few days and the lower the better. 🔼And then on January 20, Trump will be inaugurated and, as the “messiah,” he will “make life easier” for crypto investors by some decree and the market will break out in growth. 1️⃣ So the first stop of the OKX:BTCUSDT correction should be around $93-94k, and from there, growth can break up to $110k. 2️⃣ The second option is a correction of the #Bitcoin price around $86-87k. ❗️ It's also worth remembering that 29.01.25 is the announcement of the “fresh” Fed Funds rate. And given the fact that inflation has increased this month, the Fed's rate cut is in jeopardy, at best it will be left unchanged. P.S: Please excuse the fact that there are so many levels on the chart, but they work well and can be used in trading!) _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
by P_S_trade
12
Bitcoin Falls Back to $104KThe slight surge in confidence driven by the rise of cryptocurrencies $Trump and $Melania pushed Bitcoin’s price up by more than 5% to a new high of $109K . However, the volatility caused by Trump’s inauguration day has pulled the price back to the barrier of $105K in the short term. Short-Term Sideways Range A consistent sideways range continues to form between the resistance at $105K and the support around the $90K zone. Recent buying oscillations have been significant in bringing the price back to the top of the lateral movement, but so far, no major breakout has occurred to invalidate the current formation. ADX Indicator The ADX indicator line remains below the neutral level of 20, indicating a lack of a clear trend in the current price movements on the chart. Oscillations that continue to stay below 20 could prolong the potential sideways formation in the coming sessions. RSI Indicator The RSI line continues to move consistently above the 50 level. However, it is now nearing the overbought zone at 70, which could pose challenges for bullish movements around the current resistance area. Readings above 70 on the RSI may signal the onset of bearish corrections on the Bitcoin chart. Key Levels $105K: This is the most important resistance zone at the moment. Persistent oscillations above this level could reinforce buying momentum and initiate a new phase of previous bullish trends. $90K: The closest support zone, corresponding to the lower boundary of the current sideways range. Oscillations near this level could consolidate the current lateral movement and dampen confidence in a new sustained upward trend. By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
Bitcoin breakout as USDT.D breaks down, is it happening now?Refer to previous analysis in links below. As you can see USDT.D is now trying to break below the trendline that caused 3 flash crashes in a row. Will it be confirmed by the end of the day's candle or will this be a bull trap and the candle wicks back above the trendline and then a flash crash? We watch and see. Easy trade for both short and long here with stop loss that cuts off the loser and the winner runs. Don't forget to smash that rocket like button or give me your take in the comments below.
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
February's Bitcoin Advantage: A Month Traders Can Count OnWhat Does February Tell Us? As we zoom in on February, it stands out as one of Bitcoin's strongest months historically. Positive Trend: Over the past 10 years, 90% of Februarys have been positive! This is one of the highest success rates across all months. Average Return: February has delivered an impressive average gain of +15.51%, making it a standout month for traders. Low Volatility: With a standard deviation of just 16.17, February tends to be less volatile compared to other months like March or October. What Can Traders Expect in February 2025? While no pattern guarantees future performance, February's strong historical record suggests a high probability of gains. Traders should watch for potential bullish setups and prepare to capitalize on upward trends. Keep an eye on broader market conditions and fundamental catalysts, as these could amplify February's seasonality advantage. With February just around the corner, this data offers a strategic edge—don’t miss the opportunity! Note: Studies are for educational purposes only. We will not be responsible for any of your Profits & Losses. Please trade with a proper risk management strategy to avoid huge capital loss.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by teakfinance
BTC Volatility Hits 6-Month High, Options Trading ExplodesImplied and realized volatility indexes hit the highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has always been synonymous with volatility. However, recent market activity indicates a significant surge in price fluctuations, with both implied and realized volatility indexes reaching levels not seen since August of the previous year. This spike in volatility coincides with a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant price swings in the near future. Understanding Volatility In financial markets, volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a trading asset over time. High volatility implies that the price of an asset can fluctuate dramatically over a short period, while low volatility suggests relatively stable price movements. Volatility can be measured in two primary ways: 1. Realized Volatility: This is a historical measure of how much an asset's price has fluctuated in the past. It is typically calculated by looking at the standard deviation of price changes over a specific period, such as 30 days. 2. Implied Volatility: This is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset's price to fluctuate in the future. It is derived from the pricing of options contracts, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. Current Market Trends The increase in implied volatility suggests that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of significant price swings in Bitcoin. This could be due to a number of factors, including: • Increased Institutional Participation: The growing involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has led to larger trading volumes and potentially greater price swings. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in many jurisdictions continues to create uncertainty and contribute to volatility. • Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards Bitcoin can also play a significant role in its volatility. Positive news and developments can lead to rapid price increases, while negative news can trigger sharp declines. Options Market Frenzy The surge in Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market. Options contracts provide traders with a way to bet on future price movements without having to directly buy or sell the underlying asset. The recent increase in options trading suggests that traders are actively seeking to capitalize on the expected price swings in Bitcoin. One notable trend in the options market is the increasing demand for call options, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a specific price. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases in the cryptocurrency. Potential Risks While the current market conditions may present opportunities for some traders, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with high volatility. Rapid price swings can lead to significant losses for those who are not adequately prepared. For latecomers to the Bitcoin market, the risk of immediate unrealized losses is particularly high. If the price of Bitcoin were to suddenly decline, those who recently bought in at higher prices could see their investments quickly lose value. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge in volatility, coupled with the frenzy in the options market, highlights the inherent risks and opportunities associated with this digital asset. While the potential for significant gains exists, traders must also be prepared for the possibility of substantial losses. As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Crypto Alpha Report - January 20, 2025Happy Monday, friends! It’s Trump’s Inauguration Day, and the markets are exploding. Let’s dive in and see how far we can go. Over the past week, we’ve seen a complete flip of ETF inflows. A clear trend has been established; while it seemed that many were fading the market in anticipation of today, that sentiment appears to have flipped moving into the end of last week. While Trump’s inauguration was initially seen as a ‘Sell the News’ event, it’s now being viewed as a ‘Buy the News’ event. Primarily for Bitcoin, I believe much of this hinges on the possibility of Trump signing an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Bitcoin has now broken out of its consolidation wedge formation, and with three strong days of ETF inflows, I favor a spot Bitcoin long position. Ultimately, price is unfolding as we have expected throughout all of January. We anticipated prices rising following a dovish inflation print; we expected price to pump into Trump’s inauguration. Moving forward, we expect some headwinds into January’s FOMC on the 29th, where I expect Powell to remain hawkish on inflation. However, I’m now less concerned with the market reversing in any significant way following that, and I am more confident about the rally continuing. Ethereum is concerning, and I might parlay my ETH positions into short calls or another play as activity on ETH continues to drop. Ultimately, market structure and flow suggest a continuation of this rally. At the same time, catalysts, depending on what Trump signs into action today, could significantly ignite pumps moving into the end of January.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by CrackingCryptocurrency
Bitcoin’s Symmetrical Triangle Signals a Major Move AheadThe Bitcoin 1-day chart is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern, a strong signal of consolidation before a significant move. With Bitcoin’s prior bullish trend, the pattern suggests a likely breakout to the upside. If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance level near $108,000, it could head toward the $127,000 range, continuing its bullish momentum. On the other hand, a failure to hold support could lead to a move lower, with critical levels around $92,000 and $89,000 potentially coming into play. This move is expected to set the tone for Bitcoin’s next big trend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
DXY - OVERBOUGHT = Risk On in Near Term = GainsThe DXY RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. Don't need to over think this one. I'm looking for a mean reversion. On average, it appears a DXY pull back is +/-12%. $102-$98 is the level I'm watching for the short/medium term for the DXY. I imagine it strengthens again in the future, but it's offside at the current moment. Stonks, BTC, & Crypto are looking prime for a risk on environment & substantial gains - for at least the short to medium term - if the DXY sells off. Either way, it's looking like the DXY will need to mean revert in the near term. BULLISH.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitInfo12