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Bitcoin Daily Update - It is now the STRONGEST ASSET The FED tells us that borrowing will remain as expensive as it was before, No change and so now, we see traders relax and BTC PA rises. Bitcoin is now showing Huge strength, bang on time The Blue Dashed line above is the current ATH and we may end up near there in the next few weeks, providing we keep momentum. Before this, we may see PA slide down the top side of this red 236 Fib circle, using it as support while the Daily MACD cools off. The Daily MACD is not oversikd tghough, so can push higher yet. PA also broke over the 2.628 Fib extension. It may not want to loose that. We wait again but in confidence. But that is not All - Look at this Chart This is a 4 hour chart of Bitcoin - Gold DXY $ - S&P500 What is highly unusual here is how Bitcoin and the $ BOTH ROSE at the same time ! I will write more about this in another post but THIS Alone shows a Vast market swing and possibly a lack of faith in the $. BUY BITCOIN AND HOLD
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin Dominance - the two scenarios!Bitcoin dominance continues to rise after breaking out of a rising wedge pattern on the weekly chart. It has now also broken through the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Next stop is Rectangle 1, where Bitcoin dominance is expected to reach 68% — and most likely, this will mark the top of dominance before it starts to drop, triggering a historic altcoin season. Scenario 2: Dominance keeps pushing higher toward Rectangle 2, potentially surpassing 70%. At that point, many altcoins may form new lows, and weak projects could get wiped out. Fear in the market will hit extreme levels — but that could signal the beginning of an altseason and the collapse of BTC dominance. Best regards Ceciliones 🎯
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by ceciliones
8
Bitcoin showing itself to be the STRONGEST ASSET right nowThsi is a VERY Bold statement but there is a saying that we need to understand CHARTS NEVER LIE This chart is the 4 hour charts of Bitcoin - Gold DXY $ - S&P500 There are a number of things to see here. The First and strongest sign is simply that Bitcoin has risen over the last 36 hours alongside the $ Rising. This in itself is a huge sign. 80% of the time, these 2 assets go in opposite directions. To me, this is showing a weakness in Faith in the $, With Lower interest rates, less return on Holding. However, the USa will not want to see the $ drop much further and so I imagine it is being bought up to safeguard its price. Next week, on the 13th, we have inflation figures published. We need to watch that Closely. The $ is currently Lower than it has been for a long time and while this can be seen as a Negative, it has also made American goods cheaper to buy to Foreign Markets, while it has increased the value of other Currencies. Making the $ cheaper is potentially a Good idea. At the same time, we see the Global traditional "Safe Haven" Selling off. The Daily CFD on Gold chart above it has formed a double Top, that usualy creates a draw down. It is also overbought on a daily after its recent pushes higher. But more than anything, with interest rates remainiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing static, this has released pressure of investers and so Risk appetite is returning. Again, we need to watch what happens around the 13th when USA inflation figures are released. And then the S&P500 Overall, it has been dropping since Feb This Daily chart shows us It made a recovery but this may not be to go to ATH again but more part of the ABC correction. There is a possibility it could be forming an inverse Head and Shoulders...so, again, we watch So, over all, what we see is BITCOIN taking on all the markets and making the biggest gains It has certainly been the least volatile with Dips and Troughs shallower than the $ and S&P500 which is Stunning if you have ridden Bitcoin for the last 10 years.... Bitcoin has Matured in to a REAL Asset Class.. For me, it is NOT Crypto anymore. .IT IS BITCOIN
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
The 4 Crypto Dominance charts and 4 x TOTAL charts -ALT ? There are some charts we should always refer to in times where we feel change may be upon us. The chart above are Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) - Ethereum Dominance ( ETH.D ) Others Dominace ( OTHERS.D) and USDT Dominance ( USDT.D) ( I use USDT as it remains the largest Stablecoin by market cap) The RED line in these Daily charts is the 50 day SMA In most of my posts recently, I have been mentioning how Strong BITCOIN is remaining while under a Lot of resistance. But we really should not forget the rest of the market. THE ALTS The Fabled ALT Season has been running away from us, making many wonder just what is happening. To explain, while BTC.D remains high, it shows us that the Money remain invested in Bitcoin. When this Dominance Drops, in the past, it has signalled the rise of investment into ALTS. Called ROTATION, the money rotates from one asset to another. Due to the corporate investment in Bitcoin, this rotation has not happened. BUT IS IT ABOUT TO ? Let look at a few things BTC.D has been rising continuously for Months now, It is way above that 50 day SMA. PA could fall a Long way before the support of that 50 SMA is required and I notice as I type, that is is beginning to drop. It's local support may help ETH.D has begun to Rise but we need to pay attention to this as it could get rejected once again by the 50 SMA. Ethereum has had a very hard time this cycle and has yet to show any sustained recovery OTHERS.D - Now OTHERS is the one I watch most. Others is the Top 125 Coins MINUS the Top 10 by market cap. This shows us the Mid to Low cap Alts coins. This is also rising right now but once again, we need to wait and see if it breaks through the 50 SMA that has rejected it many times. The USDT.D has been dropping. This shows that USDT has been rotated into other assets. Bullish but I have to say, that as I write this, I have just noticed that this has begun to rise also though only on a 1 hour chart so maybe just Noise but it is worth watching. So, on these dominance charts, we see a potential start to a rotation but with the likely hood of rejection of the 50 SMA, It could be the First step of a bigger move.....But with potholes in front. The Next Logical thing to do is to look at the TOTAL market Cap charts, to compare this dominance. This chart shows us the Daily charts for TOTAL Crypto market Cap - TOTAL2 ( minus BTC ) TOTAL3 ( Minus BTC & ETH ) - OTHERS ( Top 125 coins Minus top 10 by Dominace ) SMA;s in chart are RED= 50, BLUE = 100, GREEN = 128, YELLOW = 200 The TOTAL is the ONLY one that has PA above all the SMA's, potentially offering Support on many fronts. It has also had the most sustained Rise. Hence the high level of Dominance in the Market. TOTAL2 is above the 50 SMA that has rejected it previously and is about to hit into the 100. We need to see if this will be rejected or not. Remember how the ETH.D is also facing rejection off the 50SMA - ETH is under pressure TOTAL3 is above the 50 and appears to have broken through the 100. This is VERY Bullish for the ALT coins and could show us some potential for a continued rise as sentiment continues to turn positive. But we should watch that 200 as a potential problem OTHERS has the largest and strongest rise and again, is above the 50 and appears to have broken through the 100. This chart has the largest gap between current PA level and the next SMA that may reject it. This is the same on the Others.D chart SO, in conclusion, The potential for a Rotation does exist but it is going to be hard fought. There is the possibility of a HIGH volitle state for the next few days, possibly Weeks. If you are going to rotate out of Bitcoin, Be VERY CAUTIOUS until at least the next SMA have been claimed on both sets of charts. The nest bets are on the Mid to lower Cap ALT coins. BUT I will say this. I cannot See BITCOIN Selling off to invest in ALTS. I also see Bitcoin continuing higher against the USD. IF we get an ALT season now, It will be Quick, Volatile and possibly with Quick Pump and Dumps on most ALTS. The larger ALTS will survive this better than the Meme, small caps in my opinion For me, the ROTATION that creates an ALT Season will occur with the rotation of money from ALT to ALT and NOT BTC to ALT What ever you do, Remain in Peace and Safety
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Orriginal
Ether-Bitcoin Ratio Signals ETH Is 'Extremely Undervalued,' The cryptocurrency market is a realm of intricate signals, complex metrics, and often-conflicting narratives. Among the myriad indicators traders and investors scrutinize, the Ether-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio holds a prominent place. This metric, a simple division of Ethereum’s price by Bitcoin’s price, serves as a barometer for the relative strength and market sentiment between the two leading crypto assets. Recently, this ratio has dipped to levels that historically signaled significant undervaluation for Ether, sparking debate about a potential upcoming rally. However, a confluence of factors – notably surging ETH supply, stagnant network demand, and a weakened token burn mechanism – casts a considerable shadow over this optimistic outlook, suggesting that past performance may not be a reliable guide in the current, uniquely challenging environment. Understanding the ETH/BTC Ratio: A Barometer of Relative Strength At its core, the ETH/BTC ratio reflects the market's perception of Ethereum's value proposition relative to Bitcoin. When the ratio trends upwards, it indicates that ETH is outperforming BTC, suggesting growing investor confidence in Ethereum's ecosystem, technological advancements, or utility. Conversely, a declining ratio signifies BTC's relative strength, potentially due to factors like "digital gold" narratives, safe-haven appeal, or specific Bitcoin-centric catalysts. A low ETH/BTC ratio, such as those observed in recent times, is often interpreted by analysts as a sign that ETH is "cheap" or "undervalued" compared to Bitcoin. The logic is that, over time, capital flows within the crypto market tend to seek out assets with stronger growth potential or those perceived as lagging behind their fundamental value. If ETH is indeed undervalued, the expectation is that it will eventually catch up, leading to a rally in both its USD price and its value relative to BTC. This potential for "mean reversion" or a "catch-up trade" is what excites many market participants when the ratio hits historical lows. Historical Precedents: When Undervaluation Sparked Rallies The argument for an impending ETH rally based on the current low ETH/BTC ratio is not without historical merit. There have been several instances where a depressed ratio preceded substantial upward movements for Ether. 1. Post-2018 Crypto Winter: After the ICO boom and subsequent crash, the ETH/BTC ratio languished for an extended period. However, as the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) ecosystem began to gain traction in 2020 ("DeFi Summer"), ETH, as the foundational layer for most DeFi protocols, experienced a resurgence. The ratio climbed significantly as capital flowed into Ethereum to participate in yield farming, lending, and decentralized exchange activities. 2. The NFT Boom (2021): The explosion of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) in early 2021, predominantly on the Ethereum blockchain, provided another major catalyst. The increased demand for ETH to mint, buy, and sell NFTs pushed its price and the ETH/BTC ratio upwards, as Ethereum's utility as a platform for digital collectibles and art became undeniable. 3. Anticipation of The Merge (2021-2022): As Ethereum moved closer to its pivotal transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) – "The Merge" – market sentiment turned increasingly bullish. The promise of significantly reduced energy consumption, coupled with the "ultrasound money" narrative (where ETH issuance would drastically decrease and potentially become deflationary due to EIP-1559's burn mechanism), fueled strong buying pressure. The ETH/BTC ratio saw notable gains during periods of heightened Merge anticipation. In these instances, the low ETH/BTC ratio acted as a tinderbox, and specific fundamental catalysts served as the spark that ignited significant rallies. Investors who recognized the undervaluation signal and anticipated these catalysts were handsomely rewarded. This historical pattern underpins the current optimism among some analysts who see the present low ratio as a similar buying opportunity. The Complicating Factors: Why This Time Might Be Different Despite the compelling historical precedents, the current market environment for Ethereum presents a unique set of challenges that complicate the simple "undervalued, therefore rally" thesis. These headwinds stem from fundamental shifts in Ethereum's tokenomics and network dynamics. 1. Surging Supply: The Post-Merge Issuance Reality While The Merge successfully transitioned Ethereum to a more environmentally friendly PoS consensus mechanism, its impact on ETH supply has been more nuanced than initially portrayed by some bullish narratives. • Staking Rewards: Under PoS, new ETH is issued as rewards to validators who stake their ETH to secure the network. While the rate of new ETH issuance is significantly lower than it was under PoW, it is still a consistent inflationary pressure. The annual inflation rate from staking rewards is currently in the low single digits. • Net Issuance vs. Deflation: The "ultrasound money" thesis largely depended on the EIP-1559 burn mechanism (discussed later) consistently burning more ETH than is issued through staking rewards, leading to a net deflationary supply. However, this has not always been the case post-Merge. There have been extended periods where ETH has been net inflationary. • Unstaking and Liquid Staking Derivatives: The ability for validators to unstake their ETH (enabled by the Shanghai/Capella upgrade) means that previously locked supply can re-enter the market. Furthermore, the proliferation of Liquid Staking Derivatives (LSDs) like Lido's stETH or Rocket Pool's rETH, while enhancing capital efficiency, also means that staked ETH is not entirely removed from liquid circulation, as these derivative tokens can be traded or used in DeFi. This consistent, albeit reduced, issuance contributes to sell pressure, especially if demand does not keep pace. The narrative of ETH becoming a deflationary asset has been weakened, impacting one of the key bullish arguments that previously supported a higher ETH/BTC ratio. 2. Flat Demand: A Stagnant Network Picture For ETH's price to appreciate significantly, there needs to be robust demand for the token, driven by network usage and adoption. Currently, several indicators suggest that demand is, at best, flat, and in some areas, declining. • Network Activity Metrics: Key on-chain metrics such as daily active addresses, transaction counts, and total gas consumed have shown periods of stagnation or even decline. While Layer 2 scaling solutions are processing more transactions, this activity doesn't always translate directly into proportional demand for ETH on the mainnet, especially if Layer 2s manage their own fee markets efficiently. • Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi: While DeFi remains a cornerstone of Ethereum's value proposition, the growth in TVL has slowed considerably compared to the explosive growth seen in 2020-2021. Capital inflows into DeFi protocols on Ethereum have been less aggressive, partly due to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory concerns, and the emergence of competitive DeFi ecosystems on other blockchains. • Competition from Alternative Layer 1s and Layer 2s: Ethereum faces increasing competition from other Layer 1 blockchains (e.g., Solana, Avalanche, Aptos, Sui) that offer higher throughput and lower transaction fees, attracting users and developers. Moreover, Ethereum's own Layer 2 ecosystem (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon zkEVM, Starknet, zkSync Era), while crucial for its long-term scalability, also fragments user activity and can, in some ways, reduce direct demand pressure on ETH for L1 transactions if users primarily operate within these L2 environments. • Macroeconomic Headwinds & Regulatory Uncertainty: Broader economic conditions, including inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession fears, have generally dampened risk appetite across financial markets, including crypto. Additionally, the ongoing regulatory uncertainty in key jurisdictions like the United States creates an environment of caution, potentially hindering institutional adoption and large-scale investment in assets like ETH. • NFT Market Cool-Down: The NFT market, which was a significant driver of ETH demand, has experienced a substantial cool-down from its peak in 2021-2022. While innovation continues, transaction volumes and average sale prices have fallen, reducing the ETH velocity associated with this sector. Without a significant uptick in genuine network demand – more users transacting, more capital flowing into DeFi, a resurgence in NFT activity, or new killer dApps emerging – it becomes harder for ETH to absorb the ongoing supply issuance and stage a sustainable rally. 3. Weakened Burn Mechanics: The Diminished Impact of EIP-1559 EIP-1559, implemented in August 2021, was a landmark upgrade for Ethereum. It introduced a mechanism where a portion of every transaction fee (the "base fee") is burned, permanently removing that ETH from circulation. This was a key pillar of the "ultrasound money" narrative, as it created a deflationary pressure that could, under conditions of high network demand, outpace new ETH issuance. However, the effectiveness of this burn mechanism is directly tied to network congestion and the level of the base fee. • Lower Network Congestion: In periods of lower network activity and congestion (as has been observed more frequently recently), the base fee required to get transactions included in a block decreases. A lower base fee means less ETH is burned per transaction. • Impact of Layer 2s: As more transaction activity shifts to Layer 2 scaling solutions, which have their own, typically much lower, fee structures, the demand for block space on Ethereum Layer 1 can decrease. While L2s do periodically batch transactions and settle them on L1 (consuming L1 gas and contributing to the burn), the overall L1 gas consumption directly attributable to individual user transactions might be lower than if all those transactions occurred on L1. • Periods of Low Burn: Consequently, there have been extended periods post-Merge where the amount of ETH burned via EIP-1559 has been insufficient to offset the ETH issued as staking rewards. During these times, ETH's supply becomes net inflationary, undermining the deflationary narrative that was a strong catalyst in previous cycles. While EIP-1559 remains a crucial and beneficial upgrade for Ethereum's fee market predictability, its power as a consistent deflationary force has been tempered by the current realities of network demand and the evolving Layer 2 landscape. Synthesizing the Outlook: A Tug-of-War The current situation for Ethereum is a complex tug-of-war. On one side, the historically low ETH/BTC ratio flashes a compelling "undervaluation" signal, suggesting a potential for significant upside based on past market behavior. This attracts traders looking for relative value plays and those who believe in Ethereum's long-term fundamental strengths. On the other side, the fundamental picture is clouded by persistent, albeit reduced, supply issuance, a lack of explosive growth in network demand, and a burn mechanism whose deflationary impact is currently muted. These factors create genuine headwinds that could prevent ETH from easily replicating its past ratio-driven rallies. For ETH to truly capitalize on its apparent undervaluation relative to Bitcoin, several things likely need to occur: 1. A Resurgence in Demand: This could come from a new "killer app" or narrative on Ethereum, a significant rebound in DeFi or NFT activity, increased institutional adoption (perhaps spurred by clearer regulation or new investment products like spot ETH ETFs in more jurisdictions), or a general improvement in macroeconomic conditions that boosts risk appetite. 2. Successful Maturation and Value Accrual from Layer 2s: As Layer 2 solutions mature and gain wider adoption, their success needs to translate into tangible value accrual for ETH itself. This could happen through increased L1 settlement demand, the use of ETH as a primary gas token on L2s, or innovative mechanisms that tie L2 economic activity back to the L1 token. EIP-4844 ("Proto-Danksharding") is a step in this direction by aiming to reduce L2 transaction costs, potentially fostering more L2 activity and, consequently, more L1 settlement. 3. A Shift in Broader Market Sentiment: Often, major altcoin rallies, including for ETH, occur after Bitcoin has established a strong uptrend and market sentiment becomes broadly bullish. A sustained Bitcoin rally could create a "wealth effect" and encourage capital to rotate into ETH and other altcoins. Conclusion: Caution Warranted Despite Undervaluation Signals While the ETH/BTC ratio strongly suggests that Ether is trading at a significant discount compared to Bitcoin, historical precedent alone may not be enough to guarantee a rally in the current market. The fundamental challenges posed by ongoing supply, relatively flat demand, and a less potent burn mechanism are significant and cannot be ignored. Investors and traders eyeing ETH must weigh the allure of its apparent undervaluation against these tangible headwinds. A potential ETH rally is likely contingent not just on the ratio mean-reverting, but on a demonstrable improvement in Ethereum's core demand drivers and a favorable shift in the broader market environment. The "extremely undervalued" signal is a call for attention, but thorough due diligence and a clear understanding of the current complexities are more crucial than ever. Ethereum's long-term vision remains ambitious, but its path to reclaiming relative market dominance against Bitcoin in the near term appears more challenging than in previous cycles.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
#Bitcoin's long-term road plan!-396 days Processed Between 2013 High and 2015 Bottom! -365 days Processed Between 2017 High and 2018 Bottom! -365 days Processed Between 2021 High and 2022 Bottom! -1065 days processed between 2015 Bottom and 2017 Peak! -1065 days processed between 2018 Bottom and 2021 Peak! -1430 days Processed Between 2015 Bottom and 2018 Bottom! -1430 days Processed Between 2018 Bottom and 2022 Bottom! If the 1065 model is processed between 2022 Bottom and 2025 Peak, I think we will see a local peak in October. If the 365 days Model is processed, I think we will see a 2025 Peak in October and a 2026 October Bottom. I will be grateful if you appreciate...
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by EtherNasyonaL
1
Bitcoin Fibo Levels - next step 150kSo by looking at Fibo levels, one can see that in the previous cycle (2017-2021) Bitcoin top was around 3.618 fibo level with respect to the previous ATH. Now, in this cycle we can see every leg up is also following Fibo levels: First leg from fibo 0 to 0.236 Second leg from fibo 0.236 to 0.5 Third leg from fibo 0.5 to 1 FOurth leg from fibo 1 to 1.618 So next leg could take us from 1.618 to around 2.618, which is 157k USD. Now it may be a bit more higher, aorund 180k, which would take us to the orange / red zone of the bitcoin rainbow pricing model. Now the timeframe to achieve that price level should be around July to September if we follow a similar pattern to previous legs, which would also coincide with the timing of peaks of previous cycles, following the rainbow model and halving cycles.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnderstandingBitcoinPrice
Bitcoin Daily - heading towards resistance with strength Bitcoin is continuing to head towards that red 236 Fib circle while being Kept below the 2.618 Fib Extension This could see PA Drop back to the 92K area where it will bump into the Cup shape it has created. This Cup has strength . It has been tested 3 times previously and on each occasion, PA Bounced well off it The overhead resistance and the Daily MACD are two reasons why this may happen As you can see, the Daily MACD is touching its signal line, potentially Bearish but most likely only on a short term basis But we should be ready incase things continue to turn Bearish, as it did before. See the rise in MACD on the left. Not the similarity in the Histogram on both occasions. Today, we have the DXY support group, otherwise known as the FED reserve, announcement on Rates. This could trigger a move in either direction, depending on the choice. Expectation is for Rates to remain unchanged PA has the ability to move in both directions,. We need to wait and see
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN BEARISHGigaAlgo BTC Market Outlook – May 7, 2025 Sentiment: Still bullish overall, but short-term timeframes are starting to weaken. Price Action: BTC recently tapped into a key premium supply zone and is showing signs of rejection. Structure: The trend remains in a bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows, but a minor break of structure has occurred near the recent high. Support Zones: If the current support level fails, the next major support lies at the equilibrium zone, with stronger demand lower in the discount area. Volume Analysis: Heavy volume was seen near the highs, indicating potential exhaustion or smart money selling. Oscillator Insight: Momentum is slowing, suggesting a possible consolidation or deeper retracement before any further move up.
Short
by gigaalgo
Bitcoin Hits $100K: Bull Run IgnitesWhat Tariff Shock? Bitcoin Surges Past $100K as Market Recovery Continues The cryptocurrency market has been making headlines again as Bitcoin (BTC) surges past the $100,000 mark, signaling a robust recovery and potentially the start of a new bull cycle. In an environment marked by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating central bank policies, Bitcoin’s remarkable resurgence has captured the attention of retail investors, institutional participants, and financial analysts alike. This article delves into multiple facets of Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, including its recent rebound after a sharp drop, the role of whales in fueling the push toward $100K, the realized cap hitting a record high, and whether aggressive profit-taking by investors signifies a local top. Additionally, we’ll explore the implications of Bitcoin's return to $100K and why it hints at a "significant price move" that could shape the broader financial landscape. ________________________________________ Bitcoin Rebounds After Sharp Decline: The $100K Push Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 has been anything but smooth. After experiencing a sharp correction earlier in the year, many market participants feared that the cryptocurrency's bull run was over. However, Bitcoin's ability to rebound from its lows with renewed vigor has defied expectations. Whales Drive the Rally One key factor behind Bitcoin’s resurgence is the activity of "whales," large-scale investors who hold significant amounts of BTC. On-chain data reveals that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin during periods of lower prices, effectively acting as a stabilizing force during market downturns. By reducing liquidity in the market and concentrating their holdings, whales have created conditions conducive to a price surge. In addition, whale wallets have been observed transferring large sums of Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold storage, signaling a long-term bullish outlook. This withdrawal pattern reduces the supply of Bitcoin available for trading, increasing upward pressure on the price. ________________________________________ Realized Cap Hits Record High: A Bullish Signal Another notable development supporting Bitcoin's rally is its realized capitalization (realized cap) hitting an all-time high. Unlike market capitalization, which multiplies the total supply of Bitcoin by the current price, the realized cap calculates the value of each Bitcoin at the price it was last moved. This metric provides a clearer picture of the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders. The realized cap reaching a record high indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin has changed hands at higher price levels, reflecting increased investor confidence. This metric aligns with the narrative of accumulation, as both retail and institutional investors appear to be buying Bitcoin at higher prices in anticipation of future gains. Accumulation Continues On-chain analytics reveal that accumulation trends have persisted throughout Bitcoin's recovery. Wallet addresses holding between 1 and 10 BTC have grown substantially, showing that smaller investors are also entering the market. This broad-based accumulation not only adds to Bitcoin's bullish momentum but also reduces volatility by distributing supply across a wider range of participants. ________________________________________ Profit-Taking and Local Top Concerns While Bitcoin's surge past $100,000 has been met with enthusiasm, some analysts caution that aggressive profit-taking by investors could signal a local top. Short-term holders, in particular, have been selling their Bitcoin to lock in gains, as evidenced by the increasing Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Signs of a Local Top? A high SOPR indicates that investors are realizing profits at a significant rate, which often coincides with price corrections. However, it’s important to note that profit-taking is a natural part of any market cycle and does not necessarily signal the end of a bull run. In fact, periods of consolidation and minor corrections can strengthen the foundation for a more sustainable rally. Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has also entered the "Greed" zone, suggesting that bullish enthusiasm may be running high. Historically, extreme greed has preceded short-term pullbacks, making it crucial for investors to remain cautious. ________________________________________ New Bull Cycle? Bitcoin’s Return to $100K Hints at Significant Price Move Bitcoin’s return to the $100,000 milestone has rekindled hopes of a new bull cycle, with analysts pointing to several factors that support this narrative. The cryptocurrency market has historically moved in cycles, driven by supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and technological advancements. The current environment appears to align with the early stages of a new bull phase. Institutional Adoption and Macro Tailwinds Institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown exponentially over the past few years. Major financial institutions, including hedge funds, pension funds, and publicly traded companies, have embraced Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. This influx of institutional capital has not only validated Bitcoin’s role as a legitimate asset class but also provided a steady source of demand. Moreover, macroeconomic tailwinds such as high inflation, declining confidence in fiat currencies, and geopolitical instability have enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset. Central banks’ monetary policies, including quantitative easing and low interest rates, have further eroded the purchasing power of traditional currencies, driving investors toward Bitcoin. Supply Shock and Halving Cycles Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its halving cycles play a crucial role in its price dynamics. The most recent halving in 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. This supply shock, coupled with growing demand, has historically preceded significant price rallies. On-chain data shows that long-term holders, who typically accumulate Bitcoin during bear markets, are now distributing their holdings during this bull phase. This redistribution of supply suggests that a new wave of investors is entering the market, further fueling the rally. ________________________________________ What’s Next for Bitcoin? As Bitcoin continues to defy expectations, the question on everyone’s mind is: What’s next? While predicting Bitcoin’s price movements with precision is challenging, several scenarios could play out in the near term. Scenario 1: Sustained Bull Run If accumulation trends persist and institutional interest continues to grow, Bitcoin could maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching new all-time highs. Key resistance levels to watch include $120,000 and $150,000, which could serve as psychological barriers for further price appreciation. Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction A short-term correction is always a possibility, especially given the aggressive profit-taking observed in recent weeks. However, such corrections are often healthy for the market, allowing for consolidation and setting the stage for more sustainable growth. Scenario 3: Macro-Driven Volatility External factors, such as changes in monetary policy, regulatory developments, or geopolitical events, could introduce volatility to the market. While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges, it remains sensitive to major news events. ________________________________________ Conclusion Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, signaling a robust recovery and the potential start of a new bull cycle. Driven by whale activity, record-high realized capitalization, and persistent accumulation, Bitcoin has defied skeptics and reasserted its dominance as the leading digital asset. While concerns about a local top and profit-taking are valid, the broader trends suggest that Bitcoin is preparing for a significant price move. Whether this rally leads to sustained growth or faces temporary setbacks, one thing is clear: Bitcoin remains a transformative force in the financial world, offering a decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative to traditional assets. As we look ahead, the combination of institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and Bitcoin’s unique monetary policy positions it for continued success. For investors and enthusiasts, the journey to $100,000 and beyond is more than just a milestone—it’s a testament to the enduring promise of blockchain technology and the future of decentralized finance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
A Table to show you Money Flow when BITCOIN DOMIANCE MOVES A Simple Rule of Thumb can be followed when BITCOIN DOMINANCE moves up or down and it can save you a fortune if you use it properly. BTC.D - BTC - ALTS increase - increase - Decrease increase - Decrease - Decrease Rapid increase - Stable - Stable Decrease - Increase - Increase Rapid Decrease - Decrease - Decrease / Stable Decrease - Stable - Increase Currently we are seeing BTC.D Decreasing and yet the BITCOIN Price in Increasing and ALTS are INCREASING Tjhis is Great BUT you need to watch BTC.D like a Hawk now because when that changes and begind to rise again, as it will do one day, maybe soon maybe in a month....then the likly hood of ALTS dropping Quickly is high Bitcoin is now in heavy resistance and pushing through. Pay attention to how long it can do that The table above is your Saviour
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Total Market Cap Update – Strategic Scenarios AheadAs of May 8, 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at approximately \$3.012 trillion, reflecting a 2.17% increase from the previous day . Bitcoin's market cap is around \$1.962 trillion, with a current price of \$98,798.11 . Given these figures, we are considering the following potential scenarios for the crypto market: --- 1. Break Above \$3T and Hold ✅ (30% Probability) * The market breaks through the \$3 trillion level. * Retests it as support. * Continues the bullish momentum from there. --- 2. Rejection and Consolidation 🔁 (50% Probability) * Price gets rejected at \$3T. * Moves sideways between \$2.8T and \$3T. * Eventually breaks out and retests \$3T as support before resuming upward. --- 3. Bearish Turn Below \$2.8T 🔻 (20% Probability) * Rejection at \$3T. * Market loses \$2.8T support. * Retests \$2.8T as resistance, followed by further downside pressure. --- Key Levels to Watch * \$2.8T and \$3T are critical zones. Movements between these levels indicate uncertainty and should be approached with caution. --- Our Perspective A retest of \$3T as support could present the strongest buying opportunity of this cycle. We urge everyone to stay alert, analyze carefully, and prepare accordingly. Golden Cross is looming — remain focused and disciplined. --- Stay updated and connected: With best regards, Team ProCryptoEdge Educate. Empower. Elevate.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by kripalsingh381
Bitcoin and the 2013 - 2017 Fractal Update - Have we left it >? For now, I am going to say YES but maybe not completely. If we look at the shape of the Fractal and what BTC PA is currently doing, it could be said that we have just completed 2 ranges in one go..the little one that Took us below the fractal and the other one that is next up the Fractal line. But it is the next 8 weeks that will define this fully and for now, so as to not get caught short, literally, I am looking to that Dashed Arrow that comes off the circle. Noe, I drew that circle back in late Feb ( posted in March ) and PA has just entered it, as can be seen on this Daily version of the same chart ( but with candles and not a line) The fact that we have even entered this area tells me that the dashed Arrow is the path PA will take as a route of least resistance and with a possible ATH in Dec of around 322K USD. That ATH is on the line of resistance drawn from the 2017 ATH and has rejected every Cycle ATH since. ( The line shown on the chart irons out detail but be assured, that line passes throgh the 2021 Nov ATH ) The possibility does exist, thogh gettign slimer, that PA could climb back over the top of the Fractal, though the push to do that would take a LOT of investment... possibly to much now. So, I will sit happy, looking forward to a 370K -> 322K ATH later in the year.. And it MUST be said, as I always say, Look on both sides. There is a possibility that PA could Drop back to the 80K - > 72K line though I feel this is highly unlikely but we are now entering a zone of strong resistance Things may get Volatile Soon. But I would just like to say "THANK YOU" to the 2013 -2017 Fractal. You have taken us on a ride since Nov 2021 and shown us how to do things properly. And so now.........New Adventures and Horizons await........Onwards and upwards
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC/USDT Update – GigaAlgo SMC | May 6, 2025 Price action continues to respect the previous analysis — BTC remains in the premium zone, now showing clear rejection with back-to-back bearish candles. Although overall sentiment remains labeled as BULLISH, the multi-timeframe JASMINN AI and Regression tools reflect short-term downside momentum, especially below the 94K zone. Key updates: 94K has turned into immediate resistance — failure to reclaim could signal a deeper pullback. Support at 93K remains critical. If that fails, BTC may retrace to the equilibrium zone around 85K, consistent with earlier charts. Watch for volume shifts — bearish volume is now increasing (25%), reflecting stronger sell-side interest. Structure Breakdown: BOS (Break of Structure) has been followed by a lower high, hinting at a potential shift if a lower low forms next. Still within the overall bullish market structure, but correction looks imminent unless bulls step in above 94.5K.
Short
by gigaalgo
Bitcoin Weekly Long Term Chart showing realistic Cycle ATH Bitcoin PA taking a breath of Air having pushed up off the lower trend line Currently facing short term resistance as mentioned in the Daily chart just posted. The Weekly MACD has yet to Croos its signal line ( red) There is currently little reason to expect this to not happen. PA currently sits Mid point of its rising channel with strong support below. We may well stay in this area till Mid Month, depending on the Macro influences. The projected ATH in the circle top right of chart is on the ATH line created sine the 2017 ATH top. It is a projection and an Expectation but there is confluence with many charts as to this Cycle Top price range. There are charts that show a Much higher price, though I feel they are possibly more pointing towards the Next cycle Top in 2029 ( If the cycle pattern continue as they have since 2017 ) We are on the edge of moves higher and we just need to remain patient......
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Bitcoin Daily Bullish CUP pattern but with resistance coming in Please excuse the number of lines here but this is my working chart and I am short of time but I wanted to share this. Bitcoin Daily has printed a Bullish CUP and is back on the Rim but we have still to reach the edge of the Cup, which is expected around 15th May, 10 days. When PA entered thhis Cuo, it also ranged sideways for a while..... Something that PA has to face in the near future is that red 236 fib circle. And PA may be already reacting to that. Look to the left and see what happened last time we hit a red 236 fib circle. I think we are in a stronger position this time though but a Drop to the Long term rising trend line is a very real possibility That is around 92K - > 87K -Not a Major drop and it would actually play into the Bulls hands by resetting the Daily MACD that is already beginning to turn slightly Bearish This is NOT a reason to PANIC or Sell but is more an opportunity, maybe the last one, to Buy BTC at around this price. I think a drop back down to the 2.272 Fib extension at 77K is highly unlikely but we should have a plan should this happen. We do have the DXY support group, sorry, THE FED announcing the Next decision of Rates on 7th and it is very likely that PA will Drop till then, slowly hopefully, resetting the MACD as previously mentioned, and then push through that 236 Fib circle after the continued Freeze on Rates is announced. We have to wait and see......
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN BULLISH BTC/USDT Analysis – GigaAlgo SMC | May 5, 2025 Price has recently tapped into a premium OB zone with strong volume rejection. Although JASMINN ML flags bearish sentiment, the structure still supports bullish momentum up to 96K unless the 93K support fails. If that breakdown occurs, the next significant support lies around 83K, aligning with previous volume zones and the STATION marker. The GigaAlgo Oscillator shows a deep red bar print, hinting at increasing bearish pressure short-term, while multi-timeframe sentiment shows a mix of red and green — signaling indecision and potential range-bound action.
Long
by gigaalgo
Bitcoin Price Action Analysis – Bearish Correction Toward DemandHello Guys! Let's analyze btc! Rising Trendline Break: The bullish structure has broken down as the price failed to hold above the key support region around $96,000–$96,200. Targeted Demand Zone: The highlighted purple box between $94,200 and $94,700 represents a demand zone that has previously shown strong buyer interest. The current structure suggests Bitcoin may revisit this zone for a potential bounce. Bearish Momentum: A large arrow indicates the directional bias toward the downside, aligning with the correction and market sentiment. Fake RSI Divergence: The RSI panel indicates a “Fake Divergence” pattern, which may have misled early bulls. RSI has since dropped and currently hovers in the neutral zone, with no strong bullish signals yet. _____________________________ Conclusion: Unless a strong bounce occurs around current levels, Bitcoin looks poised to correct further toward the $94,200–$94,700 demand zone. Traders should watch for reactionary price action and bullish reversal patterns before considering long entries.
Short
by melikatrader94
24