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Bitcoin's local perspective 30.09.24The nearest movement on BTC is now being described by the AMEXP model on the hourly timeframe, where we have two key target zones for the price: at least $62,027-$61,718 and if the impulse will be strong, it will be $59,893-$59,447. After reaching these zones, we can expect a rebound to at least ~$64,000 and as a variant of scenario - an attempt to update the high, but frankly, it is too early to talk about it. In the specified range of $62,027-$59,447 we will try to find a long with the aim to catch at least a rebound. Let's specify that the position will probably be a small size, as there are high risks of not stopping in the mentioned area.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TSFC
Strategic Bitcoin Accumulation & Market Insights: October 2024 Current Price : INDEX:BTCUSD $61,898 🚀 --- 1. Overview of Price and Market Dynamics Price Action : Bitcoin is trading at $61,898 , showcasing strong momentum. Market dynamics reflect a balance between whale accumulation 🐋 and short-term speculative movements 📊. The price has consolidated after breaking key support, with large holders dominating market activity. --- 2. Accumulation Zones 🛑 Whales have been steadily accumulating in the $55,000 - $58,000 range 🐋, signaling strong confidence in future price appreciation 📈. This zone will act as a significant support level in case of any pullbacks. - Accumulation Zone : $55,000 - $58,000 - Observation : This zone has the highest concentration of buy orders, making it a critical support area. --- 3. Distribution Zones 📈 The primary resistance zone is located between $65,000 and $67,000 . Sell-side pressure is expected to increase as short-term traders take profits 💰. Watch for increased volatility in this zone. - Distribution Zone : $65,000 - $67,000 - Observation : Significant resistance at this level could trigger a short-term pullback. --- 4. Accumulation Strategy 📊 Where : The ideal accumulation range is between $58,000 - $60,000 , where whales are heavily positioned. Large holders are removing Bitcoin from exchanges and storing it in cold wallets 🧊. When : Accumulate during periods of low volatility. Exchange outflows indicate fewer people selling Bitcoin, providing a strong buy signal 🔥. How : Use a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach between $58,000 - $60,000 to mitigate volatility. Set stop-losses below $55,000 to protect your capital. --- 5. Distribution Strategy 💡 Where : Consider selling around $65,000 - $67,000 , where strong resistance is expected 🛑. This area has previously seen significant sell orders, creating a potential distribution zone for traders. When : Look to distribute as Bitcoin nears the $65,000 resistance level. Failure to break this level will likely lead to a pullback 📉. How : Use limit sell orders slightly below $65,000 to maximize profits. Long-term holders can consider partial distribution to lock in gains while riding the next potential wave upward 🚀. --- 6. Whale Activity and On-Chain Metrics 🐋 Whales have been accumulating Bitcoin steadily between $55,000 - $58,000 . The reduced exchange inflows indicate large holders are moving assets off-exchange 🧊, preparing for a long-term hold. Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) have been increasing, further confirming long-term accumulation. Actions : - Accumulate with Whales : Buy within the whale accumulation zone between $58,000 - $60,000 . - Monitor Exchange Inflows : Decreasing inflows are a bullish signal for future price appreciation. --- 7. Key Technical Indicators 📊 - Support : $55,000 - $58,000 - Resistance : $65,000 - $67,000 Volume : Volume is building around the $58,000 - $60,000 range, indicating steady accumulation 📉. RSI : RSI is neutral, meaning Bitcoin is not yet overbought. Momentum is building for a potential breakout above $65,000 . --- 8. Derivatives and Open Interest Analysis 📈 Open Interest : Bitcoin open interest remains elevated in futures markets, signaling heavy speculative activity. A potential price move above $65,000 could trigger liquidations 🚨. Funding Rates : Funding rates are neutral, meaning long and short positions are relatively balanced. This suggests that traders expect further price gains, but not extreme volatility. --- 9. Take Profit and Stop Loss Levels 📉 Take Profit Levels : - $65,000 - $67,000 : Ideal take-profit zone for short-term traders 📈. - $70,000 : Secondary take-profit target for those expecting a strong breakout. Stop-Loss Levels : - $55,000 : Place stop-losses just below this level if accumulating around $58,000 . This ensures capital protection in case of a downside move 📉. --- 10. Final Observations and Strategy Summary 🔍 Why : Whale accumulation, decreasing exchange inflows, and strong on-chain activity suggest that Bitcoin is entering the final stages of accumulation. A breakout above $65,000 could drive prices toward $70,000 . Where : Focus on buying in the $58,000 - $60,000 range and aim to sell near $65,000 - $67,000 . Long-term holders should continue holding. When : Look for accumulation during periods of low volatility and outflows. Distribute near resistance zones and take profits at critical levels. --- Strategic Actions : 1. Buy : Accumulate between $58,000 - $60,000 . 2. Sell : Take profits near $65,000 - $67,000 . 3. Hold : Long-term holders should maintain positions, as whale activity points to future upside 📊.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradeGod_1111
Uptober Delayed?One often-shared myth among crypto traders is that of 'Uptober'. After a slow summer, markets tend to pick up in October. This is somewhat based on historical data. October is the third-best best performing month for crypto assets after November and April going all the way back to 2012. Expectations for this current October are set high after the long-awaited Federal Reserve rate cuts finally materialized. And indeed, Bitcoin's price had started slowly climbing from early September onwards. The scene was set for an acceleration during 'Uptober'. But as we know, reality rarely follows a trader's playbook. Escalating conflict in the Middle East has started to push up the price of crude oil. This throws additional uncertainty over what could be a worsening economic outlook, just ahead of a crucial American election. The number of unknowns is rising, and Bitcoin's price action continues to prove that it is still far from being seen as a 'risk-off' asset comparable to gold. As Bitcoin's price predictably retreated, Gold rallied. The BTC-Gold flippening is clearly a long way off. However, it is not all doom and gloom. Bitcoin recorded both a higher low in early September compared to the previous August low and a higher high compared to one month ago. Also, the impact of rate cuts is only slowly starting to impact markets. The rate cuts will certainly benefit Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols who will once again be able to compete with their higher yields against now lower-yielding, but far more secure Government bonds. The mood in markets has slightly shifted away from the misery that many participants felt earlier in the summer. The launch of the much-anticipated Eigenlayer token has so far played out better than some had expected. A slow renaissance of DeFi tokens is starting to register. And even a hippo-themed Memecoin rallied to $300m market cap in 2 days before retracing. Bullish traders continue to test the waters. Earlier in the year, the bulls had exhausted their buying power when the market rally fizzled out. Now it might be the bears who have nothing left to sell. Maybe not all hope is lost for an Uptober rally after all.
by Coinrule
Bitcoin/USDT on 1-hour timeframe Binance. TA+Trade plan by B.F.Descending Channel Pattern: The price is trading within a descending channel. The upper boundary (resistance) and lower boundary (support) are clearly defined. Descending channels typically indicate a bearish trend, but if the price breaks out of the channel, it could signal a trend reversal. Possible Breakout to the Upside: The chart highlights the possibility of a breakout above the descending channel, supported by a bullish blue trendline. The breakout area is noted around the 61,758.48 USDT level. If the price moves past this level, it could lead to further upside momentum. Volume: Volume appears moderate, indicating that the market has yet to show a strong momentum surge. A breakout on higher volume would confirm the upside move. Indicators: VMC Cipher B Divergences: This indicator shows multiple green dots, suggesting bullish divergence and potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is in neutral territory around 58.66, indicating no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. If it crosses above 60, it may confirm the bullish breakout. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic shows a bullish signal, with the %K line at 90.29 and the %D line at 88.42. However, it’s approaching overbought territory, suggesting caution as there could be short-term pullbacks. HMA Histogram: Shows a slight downtrend in the short term (negative values). If it turns positive, it could confirm the breakout move. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance 1: 61,758.48 USDT (upper boundary of the channel and key breakout level). Resistance 2: 64,591.15 USDT (previous high, and next major resistance zone if the breakout happens). Support 1: 60,301.68 USDT (lower boundary of the channel). Support 2: 59,000 USDT (psychological support and lower range of the broader consolidation). Trading Plan: Long Position: Entry: Enter a long position if the price breaks and closes above 61,758.48 USDT with a confirmation candle (preferably on higher volume). Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the descending channel or at the 60,301.68 USDT support level to limit downside risk. Take Profit: The initial target would be the next resistance at 64,591.15 USDT. Partial profits can be taken here, with further upside potential if momentum remains strong. Short Position (in case of failure to break out): Entry: If the price fails to break above 61,758.48 USDT and falls back into the channel, consider a short position targeting the support at 60,301.68 USDT. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above 61,758.48 USDT to protect against an unexpected breakout. Take Profit: Target the lower boundary of the channel and potentially below, near 59,000 USDT. Conclusion: The overall structure indicates a potential breakout from a descending channel. A confirmed breakout above 61,758.48 USDT could signal a bullish reversal and upside toward 64,591.15 USDT. However, if the price fails to break out, it may continue to trade within the channel, offering short-term trading opportunities. Monitoring volume and key levels (especially 61,758.48 USDT) will be crucial for confirming the next major move.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
BITCOIN ONCE MORE ON THE RISE!!Hello and welcome back friends i have some exciting cooks for the next crypto PUSH of 2025. Bitcoin is looking great despite the world events which is nothing more than a reason to set up bitcoin for its spring to the upside. After a war there's always profits once it resolves. Indicator (1). Donald T. Speculation if he wins it will push crypto, he is pushing a crypto narrative and wants to make the USA a BTC/Crypto Hub. Indicator (2). Banks are having innovation coming in 1-2 years through company SWIFT for adaptation of Digital Currency. Indicator (3). XRP just received greenlight for adaptation as one of DUBAI's currencies. Check your own facts so that you can correlate to this post as ive done my research to. Its just funny, as well as interesting to notice how the chart TELLS US where the market will go, and then the world events make it happen. Absolutely amazing to have conviction through these markets at these very moments we are in a bearish dip for BETTER BUYS. This baby will continue to pump thorugh 2025. Now..... For the Analaysis haha. As we can see from the chart BTC seems to have a strong floor here at the 60,000 Price range. i have it marked up by a green textile box that price has a great level of support and resistance if you notice to the left. Currently sitting on the 0.236 of our Fibbs from a swing low to swing high out look, and as the jingle goes from low to high we're looking for buys at key levels of the fibb. If she decides to dump a little further for reasons of war & fear, but as stated earlier thats actually a good thing for a higher push in economies. Black swan events despite being unfortunate bring prosperity in goods overtime. This level would be the 0.382 or price at 51,500 of BTC. this will be another VERY strong floor for BTC to quickly recover from notice the wick Monday 5 Aug. We're in for some Bullish runs team Lots of love keep yourselves well and DCA through this crypto market build your portfolios and HODL for 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IJackPips
The Bitcoin Dilemma: To Go Long or Not to Go Long?Let me share my observations on Bitcoin, starting with the obvious. On the 4-hour chart, any trader with more than a week of experience can see that Bitcoin is moving in a widening descending channel. To put it simply, the price action is forming a "trail" that fits perfectly within this channel. Over the past few days, prices have been "testing" the $60,500-$60,000 level, which suggests a potential move lower, aligning with the direction of the descending channel. Ok, fine. Meanwhile, on the CME and other major crypto exchanges, options with strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000 are being traded a lot with an expiration date in December 2024. That's a far cry from the current price, and it's anyone's guess what the future holds. Will we see a "tothemoon" or a multi-month bottom? Personally, I'm "sitting on the fence" and won't be going long until I see some confirmation on the chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ClashChartsTeam
Elliott Wave Analysis: Bitcoin Consolidation ResumesBitcoin is turning to the downside as the US dollar recovers alongside US yields, which have risen nicely since mid-September. With further dollar strength possible, potentially pushing towards the 102.50 or even 103 levels, this is likely to be bearish for Bitcoin, at least in the short term. Bitcoin has also turned down impulsively from above $67,000, signaling that it remains trapped in a large consolidation phase. While I believe there’s potential for Bitcoin to eventually break to the upside, we will need to be patient until some key levels are taken out. Grega
CME:BTC1!
by ew-forecast
3
2 years of BITCOIN PA and the options we now haveHere you go, Just over 2 years of #Bitcoin and pointers to whats next. We can all make Guesses and predictions about where BTC is going but at the end of the day, a Chart will NEVER Lie and shows the options available. So, Here we are, Near Mid channel, Just above support. This line has held PA 4 times since Jan 2023 and failed Once only. And we are just above it again now, having bounced off it 3 weeks ago. Current Price at this support is around 58K usdt ( Grey Arrow) Should that fail to hold, if we test it again, then we will likely Visit the Lower trendline of channel, currently around 50K - 53K usdt, depending on speed of Drop. It is the upper Trendline that holds all the power. It has rejected PA 5 times since September 2022 and acted as support only Twice. ( Thin Arrows) This line of resistance si Strong and added to this we have the "Local~" range high that is also strong Resistance. This all adds up to a Ceiling of strong resistance that ends around 76K. So where does this leave us ? The Path of Least resistance is simply to continue in Range till we hit the lower trendline in Dec 2024 ( White Arrow) with a price around 54K. From there, a bounce higher is highly likely and the need to break through Strong resistance is eased by doing it in 2 separate Goes and could lead to a new ATH around March time ( assuming continued Trend speed Etc ). For me, this is becoming more likely now given world events. Another possibility is that PA crashes down low in the near future, to around 48K, and hits Lower trendline. From there, we would have to see if the Bulls could keep PA on the line, which I am sure they would. From there, PA may range along lower trendline to recover confidence before pushing higher again. And the last possibility is obviously that PA bounces from current Area and attempts to punch through the wall of resistance in one go and break over 76K and Holds it. Which it may struggle to do. We shall find out soon enough. So many charts pointed towards a New ATH a round Dec..that may have changed. Time Will Tell
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Corrective Phase and RegainOur current outlook for Bitcoin suggests that, over the coming days, the asset may experience a short-term correction down to the key support level of $59,500. This level has previously acted as a significant zone of buying interest, and we anticipate it could serve as a strong foundation for Bitcoin to establish new upward momentum. Such a correction would allow for consolidation, enabling market participants to accumulate at a lower price point, which often leads to a healthier and more sustained uptrend. Following this corrective phase, we expect Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum and start a new upward move. The initial targets for this movement are projected in the range of $64,000 to $66,000.
by MonoCoinSignal
BTC/USD: Testing Support LevelsFollowing a strong September rally that lifted the price from the lower boundary of the bull flag, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a retracement, with the price hovering around key support levels. If this support holds, it may set the stage for a potentially bullish October. Investors with a bullish outlook may consider entering the market at current levels, although it is essential to acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the price movement. The outcome is not guaranteed, and the price may either bounce back or break through the support level. Further updates will be provided as the situation develops.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by MCFractalStudies
Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure: Analysis Based on USDT.DAs of October 2024, Bitcoin appears to be entering a period of heightened bearish pressure, with USDT (Tether) market cap dominance signaling significant shifts in investor sentiment and risk management across the cryptocurrency markets. The USDT.D (USDT dominance) chart reflects market behavior that points towards reduced confidence in speculative assets such as Bitcoin, with the increase in USDT dominance indicating that traders are moving funds into stable assets. Let’s explore this in further detail, combining technical analysis with fundamental and geopolitical factors. Sentiment Shift: USDT Dominance on the Rise The chart indicates that USDT dominance is currently trending upward, hovering at around 5.7%. With a clear upward trajectory from its lows of 3.8%, this suggests that more market participants are parking their capital in USDT. This rising USDT dominance is often interpreted as a bearish signal for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as it implies that investors are seeking safety in stablecoins, rather than taking on the risk of volatile crypto assets. Notably, the price action of USDT dominance is testing key Bollinger Band levels. The red bands, indicating higher volatility zones, suggest that there is a heightened probability of a further spike in dominance. As USDT dominance pushes higher into the Bollinger Band range, Bitcoin and other speculative assets face selling pressure. The chart shows a growing preference for stability, which coincides with Bitcoin's decreasing speculative appeal in the current environment. Rising ATR: Volatility Building in the Market The Average True Range (ATR) percentage on the chart points towards increased volatility, sitting at 32.6%, and climbing to a peak of 46.9%. This heightened volatility, indicated by the widening ATR band, signals increasing uncertainty in the market. Historically, such volatility is often followed by bearish moves for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. As volatility grows, traders and institutions typically seek refuge in less volatile assets, pushing them towards USDT or other stablecoins. The increase in ATR% suggests a continued trend of traders reducing their exposure to Bitcoin in favor of more stable investments. The consistent rise in the ATR percentage alongside the growing USDT dominance strongly suggests that the market expects a period of heightened turbulence for Bitcoin. Fundamental Analysis: Stubborn Inflation, Central Bank Tightening, and Institutional Pullback Bitcoin’s bearish sentiment can be linked to broader macroeconomic factors, where persistent inflation and tight monetary policies continue to hamper speculative markets. Inflationary pressures remain a concern globally, especially in regions like the United States and Europe, where central banks have adopted a more aggressive stance to tighten monetary policies. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have made riskier investments like Bitcoin less attractive. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of speculative assets, as borrowing costs rise and liquidity contracts. The shift to USDT reflects the broader flight to safety as investors await a clearer signal from central banks regarding future economic stability. Institutional interest in Bitcoin has also tapered. Many firms that entered the space during the 2021 bull market are now pulling back, reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies. Institutions are becoming more risk-averse as concerns about tightening financial conditions, higher bond yields, and slowing global growth take center stage. This reduced demand from major market players further adds downward pressure on Bitcoin. Geopolitical Factors: Global Uncertainty Geopolitical instability is another critical factor weighing down Bitcoin's outlook. Ongoing conflicts, notably in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have led to considerable uncertainty in global markets. Investors are now factoring in geopolitical risk alongside economic risk, leading to a preference for safer assets. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrency markets, particularly stablecoins and decentralized finance, has escalated over the past year. US regulators, for example, are increasing oversight on Tether and other stablecoin providers, but ironically, this has not diminished the market's reliance on USDT as a safe haven. The market's trust in Tether amid rising scrutiny indicates a broader retreat from volatile assets like Bitcoin and a preference for liquid, USD-pegged stablecoins. Moreover, China’s continued crackdown on cryptocurrency activities and Europe’s regulatory frameworks have dampened enthusiasm in the space. These geopolitical tensions contribute to the bearish outlook, as regional instability and regulatory pressures keep risk appetite low. Bitcoin's Path Forward Considering these factors, Bitcoin faces significant headwinds in the near term. The chart analysis, with rising USDT dominance and escalating volatility, presents a clear bearish picture. Coupled with the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin is likely to experience downward pressure as market participants continue to seek safety in USDT. The combination of central bank tightening, heightened global risk, and regulatory challenges makes it difficult for Bitcoin to regain the speculative momentum it enjoyed during previous bull markets. While Bitcoin has historically shown resilience, its ability to recover in the current environment looks increasingly uncertain. In conclusion, the growing dominance of USDT in the crypto market reflects a broader shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. With rising volatility and macroeconomic challenges, the bearish pressure on Bitcoin is likely to persist in the coming months, barring any major shifts in the global financial or regulatory landscape. Investors should remain cautious and consider hedging strategies as the cryptocurrency market enters a more uncertain phase.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by LordGiorgioCapital
Bitcoin Slips Amid Israel-Iran ConflictBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) faced a sharp drop on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, triggering a significant sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. Investors, seeking refuge in safer assets, moved towards bonds, gold, oil, and the US Dollar, leaving Bitcoin and altcoins under heavy selling pressure. Despite historically strong performance in October, this sudden market disruption has put the cryptocurrency’s best month under early threat. Geopolitical Tensions Cause Sharp Sell-off The price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) fell by 3.16%, reaching $61,715 levels. Altcoins, including Ethereum, suffered even more, plunging between 5-10% as the war tension escalated following Iran’s launch of over 200 ballistic missiles on Israel. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), which historically has seen an average gain of 25.81% in October, is now struggling to maintain its bullish seasonal trend, dropping by 4% in the first two days of the month. Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets, described the drop as a "momentary setback," stating that October's favorable trends for Bitcoin are "alive and well." However, the broader market is expected to stay on edge as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises retaliation. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $242 million, breaking an eight-day streak of inflows. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) appears weak but is beginning to show signs of recovery. After testing the critical $60,000 support level, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has rebounded 0.75% in Wednesday’s market session, trading at $61,715. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47.49, reflecting neutral conditions but indicating a slight bearish tendency. Bitcoin’s recent recovery, however, may be short-lived if geopolitical instability persists. The critical $65,000 resistance level remains a barrier to any significant upward movement, and a failure to break through could see Bitcoin revisiting $57,000, as some analysts predict. Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical behavior post-Fed rate cuts could lead to a larger correction. If the pattern holds, the cryptocurrency could drop further before resuming its upward trajectory, targeting a potential low of $50,000 by mid-November. Safe Haven Shift & Mining Pressure The conflict in the Middle East has driven investors to flock to safe-haven assets, causing a temporary withdrawal from riskier assets like Bitcoin. The flight to safety has boosted the US Dollar, bonds, oil, and gold, while applying downward pressure on the broader crypto market. Additionally, a report by JPMorgan highlighted declining revenues among Bitcoin mining companies, with September seeing the lowest levels recorded in recent months. This drop in miner profitability could trigger another wave of selling pressure if the mining sector experiences further capitulation, exacerbating the downward trend in Bitcoin’s price. Despite the current challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. McNulty and others believe that as tensions in the Middle East cool down, Bitcoin’s historical performance in October could lead to a rally that pushes the cryptocurrency back towards its all-time high (ATH) of $73,000. Historical Trends & Future Projections: Uptober Rally in Jeopardy? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has enjoyed an average 25.81% gain in October when preceded by a green September. In line with this, data from BTC Archive suggests Bitcoin could surge to as high as $80,500 this month, as the crypto has consistently posted green candles in the last three months of the year. Similarly, trading firm QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has seen a 22.9% gain in eight out of the last nine Octobers. If this trend continues, BTC could rise to $78,000 or higher. However, for this to happen, Bitcoin will need to clear crucial resistance levels and weather any additional shocks from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Analysts have also pointed out that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, and perp funding rates are approaching levels reminiscent of the early 2023 bull run. If these inflows persist, Bitcoin could see the support needed to break through to new highs before the year ends. Conclusion While Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has the potential to rally to new highs this month, the path will be far from straightforward. The Israel-Iran conflict, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as the US PMI data and Fed rate cuts, could create further volatility in the market. Still, Bitcoin's technical and fundamental strength may help it weather the storm and rebound toward its ATH as the year progresses. At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is trading at $61,715, up 0.73%, with momentum beginning to build for a potential rebound if market conditions stabilize. However, investors should remain cautious, as further geopolitical shocks could lead to more downward pressure in the short term.
Long
by DEXWireNews
2
Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W40/2024) // AlgoFyre🔶 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 🟢 In the bullish case, Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of an Elliot Wave structure, which typically signals a strong upward movement. Over the next few weeks, this wave could drive Bitcoin’s price to targets between $120k and $140k, based on Fibonacci extensions. 🟢 For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to break through key resistance levels and trendlines. If it does, we could see a significant and rapid rally toward the projected price targets. 🟢 In this scenario, even if Bitcoin encounters minor pullbacks or consolidations, the overall momentum would remain upward. Any brief corrections would likely be seen as opportunities for further upward moves, with Bitcoin maintaining its bullish structure. 🔶 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 🔴 In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin could fail to break the critical resistance levels and trendlines. If Bitcoin shows weakness or rejects off these key areas, we may see a period of consolidation or a pullback instead of a rally. 🔴 In this case, Bitcoin could begin to test lower support levels, which might result in a short-term correction. If the support holds, Bitcoin could continue to range-bound between key levels, but if it breaks down, the price could head lower before finding new support. 🔴 A short-term correction could see Bitcoin retest previous lows or critical support areas. While this wouldn’t necessarily lead to a long-term bearish trend, it would delay the upward movement for the coming weeks. 🔶 Key Takeaway In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could rally to $120k to $140k over the next few weeks to months if it breaks key resistance levels. In the bearish scenario, failure to break resistance could lead to a consolidation or short-term pullback as the price tests lower support levels before making any significant upward moves. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin follows through on its bullish momentum or takes a step back.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AlgoFyre
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4h timeframe TA+Trade plan by BFDescending Broadening Wedge Pattern Description: This is a bullish reversal pattern. As shown, the price of Bitcoin is testing the support line of the wedge, which typically suggests that a breakout to the upside might occur after the completion of the pattern. Potential Breakout: The chart indicates a potential breakout above the upper boundary (resistance line) of the wedge, possibly signaling the beginning of an upward move. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: 60,301.68 USDT: This is a near-term support zone where price could find buyers if it revisits these levels. 53,988.89 USDT: A deeper support level shown on the chart, which might come into play if Bitcoin faces a significant sell-off. Resistance Levels: 64,591.15 USDT: A strong resistance zone that Bitcoin would need to surpass for a sustained upward move. 68,556.87 USDT: A higher resistance level that could become the target in the case of a breakout. Indicators Analysis VMC Cipher B Divergences: It appears to show divergence. A green dot below indicates potential bullish divergence, suggesting price may increase soon. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 31.48, which indicates oversold conditions. This level usually implies that the asset is undervalued, signaling a potential buying opportunity. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic reading is at 23.61 (blue line) and 20.43 (red line), indicating oversold conditions as well. This adds further strength to the bullish argument, aligning with the RSI's signals. HMA (Hull Moving Average): The HMA histogram shows green bars, suggesting a bullish trend might be forming or momentum is starting to shift to the upside. Trading Plan Long Position Setup Entry: A breakout above the resistance line of the descending broadening wedge would be the ideal entry signal. You may consider entering around 61,750–62,000 USDT. Take Profit: First take-profit target could be around 64,591 USDT (resistance zone). If momentum is strong, a secondary target can be set around 68,556 USDT. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the recent low at 60,000 USDT, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish wedge pattern and signal further downside. Alternative (Cautious) Approach Wait for confirmation of a breakout with a strong candle close above the wedge's resistance line, paired with bullish indicators on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour chart). Risk Management: Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio on this trade, adjusting position size accordingly. Final Considerations Monitor for any false breakouts as Bitcoin could retest the wedge's resistance line before confirming the breakout. Keep an eye on volume; a breakout with strong volume increases the likelihood of the wedge pattern playing out successfully.
Long
by elfabiiani