Spring is ComingThe last months in crypto markets have been firmly in the shadow of the looming US presidential elections. Whatever one's political stance, it was hard to argue that a Donald Trump victory would not be immensely positive for the crypto industry. The ongoing legal fights between US regulators such as the SEC and the crypto industry and the Biden administration's open hostility to the industry were a constant backdrop of the past years. In sharp contract, Republican candidate Trump had embraced the industry in early 2024. His appearance at a large Bitcoin conference in Nashville, his announcement to fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler on day 1 of a Trump administration and also his promise to build a national US Bitcoin reserve have been music to the ears of many a crypto trader.
No wonder that as soon as Trump started to take the lead on election night, Bitcoin rallied sharply. A new all-time-high of $75,000 per one Bitcoin was reached nearly effortlessly. Bitcoin has been trading above $76,000 for most of the post-election days. Across the industry, the drop in tension is almost palpable. No longer will a bad faith regulator pursue legitimate companies such as Coinbase, Uniswap or Consensys at will. No longer will Senate block common-sense crypto regulatory frameworks. The possibilities now seem almost limitless.
Coins of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects have seen some of the largest rallies since election days. Not only will these projects benefit from regulatory clarity, but their tokens might also start to receive genuine utility such as revenue shares. The fundraising environment for projects should become more open. Maybe more onchain projects will open up to American users. It is common practice for projects to geo-block American users for fear of the long arms of US law enforcement. It is nearly poetic justice that mainstream pollsters predicting a tight election were outperformed by Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that continuously showed Trump well ahead of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.
What will the next months hold? US presidential elections tend to be bullish for crypto markets. After Obama’s 2012 victory, Bitcoin rose nearly 2,400% within a year. In 2016, following Trump’s success, Bitcoin soared 960% over the following 12 months. One year after Biden’s 2020 win, Bitcoin rose another 360%. Of course, Bitcoin's large market cap means that much more new capital must enter to move the price substantially. Yet, the optimism in the industry right now makes everything seem possible. Sure, disappointment could always come next year, but for now, Spring has arrived early. Let's enjoy the party while it lasts.
Bitcoinprice
Crypto Prices Rally After US Election ResultsMarket Update - November 18, 2024
Donald Trump secured presidential win: The news is widely seen as a boon to the crypto space because of Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Bitcoin prices hit an all-time high.
Solana reached a record 123 million active addresses in October, up over 42% from September: The network’s user engagement is now reportedly surpassing that of Ethereum by some measures.
Spot bitcoin ETFs in the US reported $541 million in outflows on Monday, marking their largest daily decline since May: But they charged back on Wednesday to make up for the losses, pulling in more than $621 million.
Lawyers for Binance and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao have filed a motion to dismiss an amended SEC complaint: The motion argues that the SEC has failed to provide standards for defining crypto securities.
Mt. Gox transferred roughly $2.19 billion worth of BTC to unknown wallets on Monday: The move follows a recent repayment delay announcement, with creditors still awaiting funds from the exchange’s 2014 collapse.
Trump Wins Presidency After Securing Every Swing State
Donald Trump was re-elected president of the United States this week, defeating vice president Kamala Harris by securing the 270 votes needed to win the electoral college.
The win is widely seen as a positive for the crypto ecosystem. Over the past few months, Trump has pledged his support for digital assets. In July, he spoke at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, promising to set up a national strategic bitcoin reserve and to fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who has filed numerous lawsuits against a range of cryptocurrency exchanges. Additionally, Trump recently launched World Liberty Financial, a DeFi company that plans to sell $30 million in tokens.
Meanwhile, Harris never took an official policy stance on regulating crypto. And as vice president, the Biden administration largely had a hawkish stance against crypto companies, with Gensler taking a regulation by litigation approach that largely alienated an asset class that has become increasingly entrenched within traditional finance.
The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high this week, surging to more than $76,500 by Thursday afternoon. The crypto ecosystem received another boost earlier in the day when the Federal Reserve said it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.5%-4.75%.
Solana Hits Record 123M Monthly Active Addresses Amid Memecoin Boom
Solana achieved its highest monthly count of active addresses in October, reaching over 123 million, marking a notable increase from September’s figure and showcasing a recent surge in user activity. Analysts have attributed the growth to the popularity of memecoin trading, spurred by platforms like the token creation app Pump.fun.
Some industry reports have also been highlighting Solana’s rising engagement levels, noting there are over 100 million active addresses compared to Ethereum’s 57 million. Additionally, the rise of AI-linked memecoins have reportedly led to this increased activity.
With Solana designed as a lower-cost network in comparison to other smart contract compatible chains, this may be playing a role in increased engagement as well, as innovators have difficulty accepting comparatively expensive Ethereum gas prices.
🎈 Topic of the Week: Helium Network (HNT)
🫱 Read more here
Bitcoin Price Set for Rally as Falling Wedge Pattern Conforms In the latest bullish developments for Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the accumulation of $145 million in BTC by new wallets is driving market optimism, suggesting an impending rally. This fresh wave of buying has coincided with a technical breakout, solidifying sentiment that BTC could potentially soar to $100,000 by the end of the year. Here’s a deep dive into the technical and fundamental factors fueling this optimism.
Fresh Wallets Signal Strong Bullish Sentiment
According to a recent report from Lookonchain, 10 new wallets have collectively accumulated 1,910 BTC, valued at approximately $145 million, from the crypto exchange Binance. This massive purchase not only highlights heightened demand from high-net-worth investors but also signals broader market confidence. On-chain data shows a parallel drop in BTC exchange reserves, reflecting strong accumulation patterns—a bullish indicator that demand is outpacing supply.
This buying spree comes as the crypto market enjoys a wave of institutional interest, partly driven by recent inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Notably, Farside Investors reported that the US Spot Bitcoin ETF saw over $1 billion in inflows on November 7, marking a record since its inception in January. BlackRock’s BTC ETF accounted for $1.11 billion of this influx, underscoring increasing institutional faith in BTC as a long-term investment.
Macro Environment
Following Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election, hopes are rising for a favorable regulatory landscape. With his support for Bitcoin and digital assets, Trump’s administration could be instrumental in shaping clear regulations, which would benefit the broader crypto market. This political shift has sparked optimism, as it aligns with heightened activity from whales and institutional players who are eyeing BTC’s potential to reach new highs.
Technical Analysis
On the technical front, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has confirmed a falling wedge pattern, a formation typically associated with bullish reversals. This pattern suggests that CRYPTOCAP:BTC may break out to higher levels, with many analysts eyeing $100,000 as a near-term target, potentially by the end of 2024.
At the time of analysis, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is trading around $76,209, up 1.6% from the previous day, with an all-time high (ATH) of $76,943 reached in the last 24 hours. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 66—approaching the overbought territory—indicating strong upward momentum. Additionally, a doji candlestick pattern on the chart reflects indecision in the market; however, this is often followed by a breakout, particularly in an established bullish trend like the one BTC is in now.
Further strengthening the outlook is the potential formation of a golden cross, where Bitcoin’s moving averages (MA) have crossed above each other, historically a powerful bullish signal. This pattern, combined with increased whale activity and institutional inflows, paints a promising picture for BTC in the short and long term.
Market Sentiment and Price Predictions
Current trends and market sentiment are highly favorable for BTC. If BTC can maintain its crucial support level of $71,489, analysts expect it could rally to $80,000 in the coming weeks. Some even project a target of $88,000 by the end of November, bolstered by the steady increase in BTC Futures Open Interest, which has risen 1.7% in the last 24 hours. This rise in open interest is another indicator of strong market confidence.
However, the recent surge has brought sharp volatility into focus. While the rally is expected to continue, investors should remain cautious, as significant price increases can lead to profit-taking, which may result in price corrections.
Economic Indicators and Future Outlook
Upcoming U.S. inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), may influence market sentiment. Positive inflation data could create further tailwinds for BTC by reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation. Furthermore, political support from Trump’s administration is expected to provide a regulatory boost, potentially fostering a more robust digital assets market in the U.S.
Conclusion
With technical indicators aligning with strong fundamental factors, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) appears poised for a substantial rally. The recent accumulation by new wallets, coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions and strong institutional support, sets the stage for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to potentially reach the highly anticipated $100,000 milestone.
As always, investors are advised to monitor the market closely, as rapid price changes can trigger volatility. Yet, the ongoing surge in institutional interest, whale activity, and positive regulatory developments suggest that CRYPTOCAP:BTC could be on the brink of a historic rally.
FBTC: Break Out After 12 Months of Sideways - DCA TradeAll the white lines are buys. My weighted average price per share would be somewhere in the middle. I Dollar Cost Averaged into the position from basically the launch of the product on exchanges earlier this year, Say March 24. The trade looks to finally be playing out.
Long Term Hold position for me, and will add on higher timeframe (1 Day, 3 Day, Weekly) oversold conditions outside a normal standard deviation.
Fun time to be a trader at the moment.
Bitcoin: Step-by-Step Action Plan for 2025
Bitcoin has just reached its 60-day cycle low, coinciding with the conclusion of the U.S. election—a critical moment in both markets. If this cycle follows a "right-translated" pattern, we could see BTC maintaining bullish momentum for the next four weeks.
In trading, two types of participants tend to profit: those who spot and act on trends using indicators, market structures, or other strategies, and those who rely on luck by buying at the right time. While luck might bring gains in a market with Bitcoin’s history of strong growth, relying on it is often short-lived. Without the skill to analyze the market, "lucky" traders often lose out in the long run, especially when conditions turn.
For sustainable success, understanding the 60-day cycle and recognizing right-translation as a bullish sign can make all the difference. Watch for potential upward movement in Bitcoin over the coming weeks, but remember to keep an eye on key indicators and manage risk carefully!
What Are the Cycles Telling Us About Bitcoin and Altcoins Right Now?
Bitcoin Confirmed 60-Day Cycle Low: Bullish Setup for the Next 40 Days
Bitcoin's price is showing signs of upward momentum. Our 3-day indicator, which we aimed to see below 20, has started turning upward, suggesting a bullish short-term pattern. Currently, the daily indicator sits around 46—potentially a good entry signal. Over the next 3-4 days, we could see a strong price push, potentially followed by a brief consolidation.
The ideal buying opportunity came at the last cycle bottom of $56,000, with the next best entry at the recent low around $70,000. Now, with Bitcoin confirming its 60-day cycle low at $68,000 and beginning its ascent, a right-translated cycle could mean a climb over the next 40 days, providing ample time for gains.
While the 1-week indicator (red line) is above 80, it’s holding steady, indicating a continued bullish phase. Although this weekly indicator may dip to 20 within the next month or two, bringing another buying opportunity, strong uptrends can mean that waiting could result in missed profits. Stay alert for potential pullbacks, but the momentum is favoring the bulls!
Don't sleep on open profits - always take profits on the cycle tops!
Bitcoin: Cup and Handle Pattern.BTCUSDT (weekly chart) technical analysis update
BTC's price has formed a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart and the price has been moving within the handle for the last five months. Once the price breaks the cup and handle neckline, we can expect a strong move with the potential to reach $100K in a few months.
Regards
Hexa
BTCUSDT: Small Correction Possible Before UptrendBTCUSDT(Day Chart) Technical analysis update
BTC's price has been trading within a broadening wedge pattern for the last 160 days. Recently, it bounced off the wedge's support and is now trading at the GETTEX:59K level. We can expect a small correction before the next upward move, with the price possibly touching the $55K level before resuming a bullish trend.
Regards
Hexa
Bitcoin standard in progress..This idea is more of a message than an investment speculation. And a reset of my previous ideas with shitcoins reminding me of where I was.
We need to learn from the past and put it behind us, looking to the future because our actions affect our future, not our past. Much has changed since my first experience with cryptocurrencies (early 18). Yes, it usually starts with cryptocurrencies, rarely bitcoin only. And when bitcoin only, few can resist the lure of shitcoiners, the potential profit. In short, I don't think a bitcoin maxis can grow without proof-of-work, without cutting through the jungle of scammers. But if the individual in question is a thoughtful creature and occasionally examines the arguments for/against, why yes/no, and is not lazy to verify the arguments in question, to read something, they will come to the inevitable conclusion, that's my opinion. My opinion is that we are very lucky that bitcoin was created, we have the hope of freedom, versus the inevitable inflationary, monetary and tax bullying, surveillance by the state. We are fortunate that it came into existence as it did - naturally, anonymously. That is unrepeatable in this day and age. That alone is a bulletproof foundation and a guarantee of my peaceful sleep. I could list dozens more. But I won't prolong it.
Thanks for bitcoin , for the hope of a better future.
Always and forever bullish , there is no ceiling. Dips are discounts, that's all. Volatility is a feature, not a flaw. Welcome volatility , learn to work with it. It's a game for the long term. Forget fiat profits, only increase the stack of bitcoins owned. Use HW wallets for your savings! Once the bull market hits, it's time to reward yourself, enjoy life, send some of that bitcoin back out into the world for some fine goods, services. Bitcoin is money that makes sense to save in. Simple.
Satoshi thank you!
The Case for MinersBTC is now entering its final form. As I see it, the period beginning now and progressing over the coming months is likely to be the most rapid and vicious ascent of this entire market cycle beginning from the post-FTX lows. This cycle shall also culminate in Bitcoin's long-awaited rise to its greatest potential: accumulation on a global sovereign scale.
Thus, the time to pay attention and allocate to BTC beta, especially miners, has reached its apex. I'm a bit late to this post as I have already positioned in several miners, namely CLSK and WULF, but plan to finish accumulating shares and long calls rapidly. The best entries tend to be on daily closes above previous monthly or quarterly highs, especially when the previous monthly candle was a doji or hammer, indicating accumulation and downtrend exhaustion. This is precisely what we just saw with the candle of the month of September 2024, and I entered on the first daily close above its $10.47 high.
This post is generally for made for posterity and on the eve of a possible daily close confirming a textbook H&S bottom. While the measured move of this patter coincides with the yearly POC around ~$16-17, and it may well see some trouble accepting there, I plan to hold the majority of my longs into the 1st fib extension at $35, and, depending on conditions, will leave some to run to the 2nd extension around $52. RSI indicates that we haven't even entered the bull market phase of this run. Have fun and good luck to all - exciting times lie ahead!
Bitcoin to 100k this year?Hey guyys!
So Trump won the election and we have new BTC ATH!
And I think we all wondering where we can go now?
Let's check the chart and daily we have bullish MA cross, huge volume on this election day.
But, another day volume is not pretty nice and looks like more manipulative movement.
So I think if we will stay long at the ATH level without moving up with descending volumes, we could potentially see some correction.
If we stay above 69k, most likely after this short correction we can go up, if we're not holding this level we can go to 59-63k level.
Cause real rally for me, will happen in 2025.
What's your ideas, guys? Let's discuss in the comments? Are we going to 100k this year or only in 2025?
BTC UpdateAs expected, the price continued its upward movement by hitting the Fibonacci golden zone and forming a hidden divergence in the RSI. The candle that hit the golden zone is a pin bar candle and this week's candle is the confirmation candle of that pin bar candle. So we have to wait for the closing of the weekly candle, and if the candle closes in the form of a momentum candle, it can be said that the price is still interested in moving up.
Bitcoin : The Next Bull Run Is ConfirmedBTCUSDT Long-Term Bull Run Confirmed (Monthly)
Current Price: $65,700.98
Target: $100,000+
After analyzing the lower timeframes, I can confidently say that the next bull run is confirmed. The current consolidation on the monthly chart is part of a bullish pennant, and we are on the verge of a breakout that will push BTCUSDT to new highs.
Key Insights:
Bullish Momentum on Lower Timeframes: The consolidation visible on the lower timeframes aligns with a strong breakout signal. The pullbacks are healthy and forming a solid base for the next major move.
Price Target: My projected target is above $100,000, with the long-term potential reaching $140,000 by 2026-2028. This is based on both technical patterns and historical trends.
Support Zones: If the price dips, strong support lies around $58,000-$60,000, ensuring that even in a retracement, the bull run remains intact.
Market Sentiment: The overall market is showing signs of strength, and institutional interest continues to grow, further confirming this upward trend.
Conclusion: The bull run is already in motion, and Bitcoin is expected to break out of its current consolidation soon. $100,000 is just the beginning, and I’m confident that we'll see higher prices in the coming years.
BTC - 4H fall for nowWhen it comes to market sentiment, a popular saying is, “When everyone is on the same side, it’s time to go the other way.” This concept aligns with the contrarian trading strategy, where savvy traders often position themselves in the opposite direction of the majority. Currently, with widespread excitement and optimism about a potential BTC bull run, it’s possible that we’re setting up for a correction rather than a sustained rally.
Historically, markets tend to pull back when optimism reaches a peak. For example, in 2017, as BINANCE:BTCUSD neared $20,000, the market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish, yet that’s when BTC took a sharp downturn. Similarly, in early 2021, when Bitcoin was approaching $64,000 with much hype around institutional buying, we saw a significant correction that shook many investors.
In this context, the chart here shows MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN touching a strong resistance zone around the $76,000 level. With sentiment bullish and many expecting a breakout, BINANCE:BTCUSDT may likely trap some of this optimism and head lower first to “clear out” the overly crowded long positions. This potential pullback could lead to a more sustainable rally later after the excess sentiment has cooled.
BITCOIN (BTCUSDT) Hits All Targets! Massive Gains - 20x LeverageBITCOIN (BTCUSDT) Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin surged on the 15-minute timeframe, delivering stellar results as it smashed through all marked targets. The trade, taken on 20x leverage, provided a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for traders utilizing the Risological Swing Trader Indicator.
Trade Summary:
Entry Point: $68,454.9
Stop Loss (SL): $67,631.4
Targets Achieved:
TP1: $69,472.6 ✅
TP2: $71,119.5 ✅
TP3: $72,766.4 ✅
TP4: $73,784.2 ✅
Highlights:
Flawless Execution: Entry was timed to perfection using the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming a strong bullish momentum.
Leverage Power: The 20x leverage magnified gains exponentially, showcasing the potential of well-executed high-leverage trades.
Strong Trend Support: Bitcoin continued to respect the trendline, providing consistent confidence to hold the trade to its full potential.
Risk and Reward:
While the high leverage trade amplified profits, it also carried significant risks. Only traders with a clear risk management strategy and confidence in the Risological Indicator should consider such setups.
Recommendation:
Book Profits: With all targets hit, locking in gains is prudent.
Monitor Retracement: Bitcoin may test support zones, presenting fresh opportunities for re-entry.
Stay Updated: Use the Risological Swing Trader to stay ahead of market moves and identify the next big trade.
Conclusion:
This Bitcoin trade showcases the power of strategic analysis and disciplined trading with the Risological Indicator. For traders willing to take calculated risks, the results speak for themselves.
$BITCOIN Analysis: The market retreats, Ignoring the good news?My answer to the topic is that MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN might have a short-term pullback from technical analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD soared 9% yesterday since Trump won the presidential election. And then, it be rejected by the resistance level of the bullish channel upper edge.
Therefore, the price might continue to go up after a short-term pullback. And the support level for this pullback could be previous high area.
Staying LongI haven’t posted in a while. Anywho. Still holding since $45 sadly. I have averaged down a good bit, but yeah. Still here.
Weekly chart, strong upward support from the early days. Should be coming to a breakout by January. Knowing Bitcoin, it’ll probably happy thanksgiving or Christmas. Who knows.
We are getting closer and closer to the magical 18 months post-halving. I think it’ll happen sooner.
MARA makes no sense. Largest and best Bitcoin miner, yet underperforming. My theory is now that there are ETF’s, funds will choose those as a more direct correlation to BTC rather than miners.
My investment advice, stop trading and start investing. Throw some in an index fund and manage your risk with the rest. Wealth isn’t built overnight. For a quick win often results in a quick loss. But a win that is built over years will not be lost in one night. The pain and endurance will not let that happen.
*none of this is investment advice.
Post Election Bitcoin and Crypto Market UpdateThis is a shorter version of my video yesterday, just recapping what I've been seeing and forecasting in these markets.
Didn't expect to see the rally to new ATH so quickly.
Or the DXY to push up higher at the same time...
But here we are breaking and apparently holding new ATH, so I do think we continue to push higher. Even if we get one more sell off, to re-test the ATH as support.
Yesterday's pump was part short-squeeze, and part SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in BTC ETF inflows.
In this video we look at BTC and SOL, which I believe will lead the next leg of the Bull.
Also an interesting speculative study on the Pi Cycle Top, and the idea we could see a double top or dual-cycle in the next 12 months, like we did in 2013.
As well as recapping why my targets are $100k (conservative), $150k (base case), and $200k (aggressive) along with confluent targets based on measured moves from the Bull Flag breakout.
Let me know what you think, and if I missed anything!
Brett
Bitcoin BTC Forecast: Trump Wins, What’s Next for Crypto?Hello, Skyrexians!
Earlier this year we made the predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum. We assumed that price has finished the wave 4 for Bitcoin and wave 2 for Ethereum. Here you can find predictions:
Today it looks like our forecasts are playing great. Trump won the elections in USA and cryptocurrency showed us the significant growth in one day. Bitcoin was even able to set the new ATH, some altcoins are also feel good. In today's article we are going to discuss if Trump really triggered new wave of bull run, or this is just a fake pump and soon we will see huge crash.
Navigating Bitcoin bull run: where is the final target
First of all let's take a look at the entire bull run which started at $15k. We can see on the chart below the beautiful impulsive wave.
This bull run shall consists of 5 Elliott waves. Maximum Awesome Oscillator value corresponds to the wave 3. Then we have seen the corrective wave 4 to 0.5 Fibonacci level. Look at this perfect touch! Do you remember the panic on the market on August 5? But we were sure that this is the end of dump. Awesome Oscillator crossed zero line also at this period of time. It was the early indiction that all this annoying correction is almost done. Then we saw the growth with the new ATH for Bitcoin.
Now price is printing the wave 5. Where is the target? Using our methods we predict the finish of bull run in the range between $85k and $107k. If you noticed - targets are unchanged! So, we suppose that bull run for BINANCE:BTCUSDT is almost over. It will continue climbing up on this optimism, but not so far. Now let's try to understand more global price action.
Bitcoin's Unstoppable: The next U.S. President won't matter!+67%COINBASE:BTCUSD NASDAQ:IBIT
🚀 Bitcoin’s Unstoppable: The next U.S. President won’t matter! +67% Potential! 🚀
In this video GEM, we dive deep into Bitcoin: Private Link below breakdown!
Disclaimer: The video is long, but it is thorough and informative. Worth a full watch, IMO!
1️⃣ A detailed look at the "High Five Setup" with MASSIVE Multi-Year Cup & Handle and Bull Flag Patterns.
2️⃣ A historical review of CRYPTOCAP:BTC to uncover the characteristics of TOPS and BOTTOMS. Spoiler: We haven’t TOPPED yet!
3️⃣ Potential trade insights, including entry/exit points and price targets.
PRIVATE LINK TO TV VIDEO:
Drop your 2025 Bitcoin predictions in the comments below!
LIKE | FOLLOW | SHARE
STAY TUNED 🔔
Not financial advice.
BTC Reaches New All-Time High as U.S. Election Excitement SpikesBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has surged to record-breaking highs, exceeding the $73,800 mark on November 6, driven by growing excitement surrounding the U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency experienced a robust 8.63% gain over the past 24 hours, briefly touching $75,011.06, as per CoinMarketCap data. This rally marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), reflecting both fundamental shifts and robust technical momentum.
Election-Driven Momentum and Investor Sentiment
The U.S. election has played a significant role in this surge, with Bitcoin’s price mirroring heightened market anticipation. During early New York trading hours, CRYPTOCAP:BTC climbed more than 3%, hitting $70,577. We attribute this performance to political forecasts, many of which favor Republican candidate Donald Trump. On decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket, Trump's odds of victory surged past 60%, driving speculative interest in risk assets like Bitcoin.
Investor sentiment also appears split amid this rally. Prediction markets have become a focal point for traders eyeing short-term price shifts, and a boost in Trump’s winning odds correlated directly with Bitcoin's breach of the $70,000 threshold. However, uncertainty persists: major Bitcoin spot ETFs, including Fidelity and Ark Invest, have seen outflows totaling $541.1 million, while BlackRock's IBIT ETF stood out with $38.3 million in inflows.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) exhibits strong upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 67.76, indicating that CRYPTOCAP:BTC is nearing overbought territory but still has room for further gains before reaching extreme levels. Moreover, a bullish crossover has occurred: the 9-day moving average has risen above the 21-day moving average, signaling sustained bullish sentiment.
Support levels also highlight the strength of Bitcoin's price action. BTC’s current support at $69,000 has been tested multiple times, acting as a reliable floor for price movements. If Bitcoin were to pull back, analysts identify $64,000 as the next critical support level. On the upside, resistance at $75,000 is significant, but breaking past this barrier could propel CRYPTOCAP:BTC to a target range between $80,000 and $85,000, setting new benchmarks for price stability.
Fundamental Factors: Halving and ETF Developments
Bitcoin’s impressive rally builds on fundamental developments, including the April 2024 halving, when mining rewards were reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have constrained Bitcoin's supply, often triggering significant price appreciation. This year’s halving has once again underscored Bitcoin's deflationary nature, contributing to its ongoing seven-month upward trend.
Additionally, the emergence of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has catalyzed further interest in the cryptocurrency market. Since their debut in January, these ETFs have amassed over $450 billion in daily trading volume, with inflows reaching $22.5 billion in 2024. Nevertheless, ETF performance has shown mixed signals. Notably, on November 5, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $72.67 million, marking a three-day streak. Fidelity’s FTBC ETF recorded a substantial single-day outflow of $68.24 million, suggesting some investors remain cautious.
Options Market Insights and Leverage Risks
The options market reveals bullish sentiment for key November dates, with many traders targeting price levels between $72,000 and $75,000. However, caution is also evident, as one trader placed $64,000 worth of put options, hedging against potential downside risk. The stakes are high, as CoinGlass data indicates a price drop below $68,000 could liquidate roughly $484 million in long positions. Conversely, a breakout above current levels may trigger forced liquidations of $215 million in short positions, underscoring the volatility driven by leveraged trading.
Leverage plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's market dynamics. Should BTC’s price move sharply, liquidation cascades could amplify price swings, heightening market turbulence. This setup remains a double-edged sword, promising either rapid gains or significant losses for traders.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's ascent past $75,000 showcases its resilience as a digital asset, bolstered by election-driven sentiment, favorable technical indicators, and a foundation of growing institutional adoption. While uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election outcome and ETF flows present risks, Bitcoin’s robust support levels and bullish momentum signal a promising outlook. As market participants watch for the next breakout, CRYPTOCAP:BTC remains a focal point in the ever-evolving digital economy.