BITCOIN Breakdown of Whats Going On - 06/02/2024Hello everyone,
I have to update on update of previous post, to break it down little clearer for some of you, to explain why RIGHT NOW Im very causious...
For that purpose Im going from Highier to Lower timeframes, to get clearer picture of what is the MOST possible at this moment..
So, If we go from 5Day to 4h timeframe, its clearly to see that we are "stucked" in consolidation of last 5D candle, which was our "top" of 2023 and we are in process of "accumulation/distribution" either shorts/longs before moving further (as stated yesterday, longer we stay highier, chance of continuation of going highier increasing)...
So as you know, I WAS of opinion, that we should go lower to swept Sellside liquidity, before moving further... but since FED meeting changed nothing, I HAVE TO stick with my Highier TimeFrame perspective...
And thats it, as presented in Q1 update - Due to previous experience in similar market conditions I should suggest that until nothing change & FED start cutting rates, market will move Highier with Time until this change come!
Breakdown :
5 DAY -
to
1 Day -
On 1Day, we can see much better, that we first swept Buyside liquidity of that 1st Rectangle consolidation, before we processed to swept Sellside liquidity... BUT NOW, we came EXACTLY BACK where we WAS, which SHOULDNT be CASE if we continuing LOWER with confidence...
So, we HAVE TO go to 4hr, to make "better and clearer" guess of whats happening...
4h -
So , I added 1 more layer of rectange... which is LAST WEEK RANGE...
You can see, its relatively tight with its own "consolidation" (i put green cut line between for better visibility)... and YESTERDAY, we firstly swept highs, then lows and now we proceeding to going back up.. in this case, IF WE ARE ABLE to MOVE ABOVE that FED HIGH I would expect with high probability of moving further up, ONCE WE GET ABOVE OUR CONSOLIDATION BOX, both of them!
-- One more 4hr chart with SMA , which I do not use as "trading tool", but in my obsertvation-> When they are stacked like now and we moving in tight range in same time.. WHEN Price BREAK above/under them with "test" - in most cases it continuos in that direction for pro-longed period of time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoinpriceprediction
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
BTC When will the Bitcoin selloff end??I've previously mentioned in a BTC (Bitcoin) trading idea that the ETF approval would be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event:
Now, we observe a continuation pattern with bearish divergences on the RSI.
A bearish divergence is a term used in technical analysis to describe a situation where the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. In particular, it occurs when the price of the asset is making higher highs, but a related indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is making lower highs.
My current price target is FWB:39K , representing the next regional support.
Weekly DXY Breaking Down Below 103 = Bitcoin and Crypto RallyThis is a great looking chart of the DXY on a weekly time frame.
We have a huge Bearish engulfing candle forming on the DXY and breaking down below the 103 support level.
This is looking very Bullish for Bitcion and the Total Crypto Market Cap.
Also notice what happened after the last Bearish engulfing candles in October and November.
This is great to see, after 11 straight weeks of Bullish Green weekly DXY candles prior to that.
This is starting to look very interesting, and as we know as the DXY falls, Bitcion goes up.
Also see my recent analysis on how we could see new highs by January, and $100k BTC by or before the Halving.
Let me know what you think!
BITCOIN BEAR to test $30,000. Prepare your ...ahem....self.Bitcoin has been in a sloppy rising channel for over a year.
It tried 4 times to break out of the channel recently and is now back testing the bottom of the channel.
If it closes below the channel on the daily, look for Bitcoin to fall to the support zone which is around $30,000. It's also the midline of a long term VWAP.
Selling volume is much stronger than buyers and MACD is taking a dive.
COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTCUSD Bitcoin - Jan to Jan , what's next?! 22.1.24The common assumption is that Bitcoin is crazy and unpredictable.
But if we look at the big picture - A technically perfect picture appears, predictable looking at roughly a year and a half of trading.
Connecting the lowest and highest points creates an ascending (rising) tunnel with parallel lows and highs.
The current floor of the long-term trend is around 32,000 per coin.
The current roof of the long-term trend is around 50,000 per coin.
A daily weekly candle close below 40,000 could mean 38,000 to 32,000 would be the next targets to come.
A daily weekly candle close above 40,800 could mean immediate target would be back to
42,000 following with 44,000 and 48,000.
ETF news provide turbulent movements which provide attractive entry points in the bigger picture view of up-trend since beginning of 2023.
A weekly close below 32,000 would be the sign of the picture shifting, but until that happens bitcoin is overall expected to have a very bullish year.
Bitcoin Next Move ?Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from the Upper Trend Line. It has completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and making its Correction. We have Strong Divergence we can Look for Short If it Breaks Lower Trend Line Otherwise Trend is your Friend
Will it hold?Bitcoin is retesting (again) my trendline. I see everyone calling for new highs, and last time that everyone was greedy... You know what happend. Now you are all greedy again, what could happen? I personally sold half of all my spot bags, and added more to the BTC shorts. I am short on BTC only. Of course my trendline can't hold forever, but i think we are closer to the drop. Big funds want to buy bitcoin, do you think they will buy it at this price when they can buy lower dropping it? Are you serious?
SEC's Jan 10th BTC ETF deadline ("buy the rumor, sell the news")The adage "buy the rumor and sell the news" might apply to Bitcoin with BlackRock and Fidelity’s potential Bitcoin ETF approval on the horizon.
In the event that the SEC denies the ETFs, market participants might eye downside targets below $41,500 and $41,250 if we get a wild swing to the downside.
Conversely, approval from the SEC may pave the way for an immediate targets of $48,250 and $48,700, with a sustained bullish sentiment propelling trading into the 50-55K zone. However, lingering questions persist about the market's reaction, raising the possibility of countering recent optimism and lending credence to the "sell the news" adage.
Bloomberg reports suggest that approval for Bitcoin Spot ETFs could materialize as early as this week, with the SEC's decision deadline set for January 10. Insiders speculate that the regulator might leverage this deadline to announce decisions on nearly a dozen Spot Bitcoin ETF applications simultaneously, including those by BlackRock and Fidelity.
[BTC/USDT] Potential accumulationsince Dec 5th 2023 bitcoin has been in a trading range sometimes even creating new higher highs (45879 high) but no follow through until Jan 3rd market did the strongest down move with the biggest volume signature but the result of it was not that bearish since it closed near it's high that, that move made me think that the market is still supported by buyers and therefore a potential accumulation
BTC Bitcoin ETF "buy the rumor, sell the news"BTC Bitcoin Price fell today amid speculation of ETF rejection.
Employing the strategy of "buy the rumor, sell the news," traders strategically capitalize on market movements by entering positions based on speculative information. This approach involves opening positions on rumors and closing them when the anticipated news is officially announced, typically resulting in a profit.
However, it's crucial to note that this strategy is often driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO). The surge in buying activity prior to the news can lead to heightened selling pressure from market participants once the news is confirmed. Consequently, the price of the asset is susceptible to a decline as traders liquidate their positions, emphasizing the speculative nature of such market dynamics.
My price target for BTC is about FWB:36K in this situation.
Will Bitcoin see 65K$Now Bitcoin is near $47K. $47K is the next resistance level for Bitcoin. If it passes this level, I predict that it can arrive at $60K and then FWB:65K in the near future. However, if it shows a reaction to $47K, I predict a correction till $37K. The correction can continue till $32K too in a pessimistic mood.
Anyway, I'm optimistic about Bitcoin's price in the near future because of some news about its ETF. In 2024, I hope it will see high prices.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #12Good evening from Ukraine!
Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you!
Work plan.
Because it is necessary.
There may be a slight deviation.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win/sometimes you learn.
- thoughts out loud
- thoughts out loud
- thoughts out loud
P.S.
...Think positive)
BTC Macro Cup & Handle Forming w/Golden Pocket Breakout?Bitcoin rejected at the $45.5k level as we forecast in prior weeks live classes and we can see the sell order block at this level as well.
Right now it looks like BTC is forming a macro cup & handle pattern, which would be a good thing here -- for Bitcoin to retest recent support (the handle) and then bounce off of this.
I'm targeting the FWB:48K - $50k level as the next resistance level before heading higher (which is the macro Fib Golden Pocket retracement zone).
The next buy order blocks are around $38k but the likely support levels are the 21 and 50 week EMA's around $30k and $35k respectively.
Hard to say what happens next, with all eyes on the BlackRock and other ETF expected approvals.
If for any reason ETF's are NOT approved 1st week of January, we could see a 50% drop and the Bitcoin CME gap potentially filled around $20k and as a final shakeout of retail investors.
#BTC/USDT Update, Be patient!!While Bitcoin seems to be moving sideways, Altcoins are showing some promising momentum.
I am spot-long on both Altcoins and BTC.
However, I'm playing it safe and waiting for confirmation on the Weekly chart before making any major moves.
BTC needs to break that $44k resistance to hit FWB:48K which is my final target in the short term.
The current weekly candle is very important so be patient and stay cautious.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #11Good evening from Ukraine!
Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you!
Work plan.
Because it is necessary.
There may be a slight deviation.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win/sometimes you learn.
- thoughts out loud
- thoughts out loud
- thoughts out loud
P.S.
...Think positive)