Bitcoin Free Fall Starting Mid MarchMultiple negative divergences are seen here on daily.
-Ascending Wedge
-Broadening ascending wedge
-MACD Negative Divergence
-Money Flow Negative Divergence
I have a downside initial target at 17.5K -- I have to see from there where the market goes. If inflation is not under control by May / June, and the terminal rate nears 6-7 percent, Bitcoin will go into full-blown capitulation. Be careful if you are a long-term investor. I would sell everything at 25-26 on the next rally.
Bitcoinpriceprediction
Bitcoin Bottoms and Tops ( Future Price Movement)Hi Guys , i was interested to Bitcoin where the Tops and Bottom are,or why was the top at 19k in dec 2017 and not 30k or 40k well i analysed the chart a bit and im also surprised how it developed since the start. OK lets GO and i tell you what i found here in the Charts.
First the Chart is in log scale. Yellow lines are the halving events.
In the first cycle i looked into the date range oct 11 to january 13, it looks like Bitcoin settled up first nicely a uptrend (Green Trendline), no huge pumps and slowly rising. Finally after halving, it took some months to Massive Price movements for Bitcoin.
Well now we come to the interesting PART
The second and third cycle looks also similar, after breaking every Supportline(RED arrows) if it comes down from ATH we builded up the Bottom for Bitcoin, the range how much bitcoin takes to bottom out is different.(mostly 10-14 months) and started to build up a new uptrend with supportline, slowly till halving event. When the halvings finally happened it took generally some month to start massive Pumps. It looks like halving events are the real catalyst for massive Price Pumps and leading to new ATHs.
NOW, when we look ,where are the Tops and Bottom for Bitcoin ? we have to look into second cycle, we can see that the green trendline from the the first cycle acted in the second cycle the ATH top in dec 2017. when we came down to the uptrend line in the second cycle , we broke it, formed bottom, but rallied here to the previous support line from the second cycle which was the local TOP and acted here as RESISSTANCE. maybe coincidence?
well lets have a look into the third cycle. we broke the uptrendline from the second cycle. spent some time here at same levels but suddenly we pumped here again but the local top was again the previous trendline from the second cycle. it acted here clearly as ressistance and we dumped till the halving event. After this the real Pump occured on Bitcoin which was lead to over 60k. But why we stopped at 60k? well again the previous uptrend line from the second line acted here as ressistance.
The fourth cycle which we are in now , i think we formed the bottom. because the date range compared to previous cycles are similar 10-14 months.The next step is now the possible scenarios that i will write down.
What i think about Bitcoin is that, we cant really know how much Bitcoin can go down after we breakdown the trendline, but it looks like we formed now finally the bottom.
Possible scenarios:
1. Bitcoin pumping to the Third Cycle Uptrendline which will act as ressistance again and dumping till halving to form the new uptrend line. After Halving we see the real Pumps. Price target here would be : 60-75k, then we dump till halving, we rise after halving slowly and building up the new uptrend line and pump again to the previous Trendline from the third cycle which would be Pricetargets over 200k+
2. we rising slowly and building up now the new uptrend line till halving and then seeing Massive price movements above 200k.
Maybe this Idea answers you why we stopped at excactly 19k and 64k and not on different prices.
NFA
BTCUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #13!!! IT IS IMPORTANT TO READ THE DESCRIPTION !!!
Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
The previous goals were achieved, but under a different scenario. After the asset has been depreciated, we see a surge in volumes at the culmination of sales, followed by a false breakout of the level and the strength of the buyer. There is a setup that can be used to work with, I open a long and support the trade.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin
Bitcoin Consolidating to go Lower AGAINBitcoin/1H Doing another Pennant
We are also in a down trend channel that I draw which everytime it reaches the end of the channel it makes a move.
Worth noticing when SPX was consolidating btc went to 25K now that spx started to move down btc coming down with it.
We could perform a fake pump and grab some liquidity before further downside.bearish momentun is just starting and we yet have to see bigger red candles ~13%
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BTCUSD ( High Probability BUY Setup SOON )* Here we can see clearly from our analysis if BTCUSD don't break our support trend line, we're going to be looking for BUY Setups in coming days & weeks,
* If we see a down trend & it breaks our support trend line, we believe it's going to be forming Inverse Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern ( VvV ) before the big BULL run for BTCUSD this Summer,
* As for us we won't be looking to SELL BTCUSD this coming days or weeks, instead we'll be waiting for the BULL run on our favourite Crypto Currency to trade,
* We're using H4 time frame for a clearer view of our analysis, hence we can't predict the duration of our analysis to occur on the charts,
* Keep a close eye on Crypto Currency King,
* Happy pip hunting traders,
* FX KILLA.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #11.Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
Over the weekend, I expect the cryptocurrency market to form a trading range and move into a phase of redistribution or re-accumulation. The formation is not ready for this period of time, I need confirmation.
What are your thoughts on this asset?
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #12Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
And in continuation...
In this phase of the market, we have upthrust, which may indicate that we are witnessing a distribution, but there is no confirmation at this time.
I expect the price to be in the range of 25300 - 25600 , after which the market will settle everything.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn.
Bitcoin 2023 Bearish Expansion TriangleBITCOIN WEEKLY CHART PATTERN
As per last year first Downtrend starts in June 2022, the complete wave moves on Bearish Expansion Triangle Pattern, that's last cycle will be complete on May-June 2023 with last Lower-Low of $13.5k - $12.5k and after that big #Bullish wave starts from Aug-Sept 2023, and after October #Bitcoin will Moves forward with full #BullRun mode.
Bitcoin Catastrophic Move On FOMC DayBTC/1H forming a parallel downwards channel
After 3rd touch at 25.2 and jebating everyone with that Ascending Triangle. bitcoin invalidated the triangle and started bleed down slowly to ~24K showing Bears are comin into the market again and bulls are running out of fuel.
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There are some buy pressure still which I think bulls can try to push the price back to 24.8 for the last time before a catastrophic move to the downside ~22.4 or even a capitulation candle to 21.1
Detailed explanation with lot more to covered on video
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Bitcoin Macro Bullish IdeaIdea here on just this pattern thats fairly obvious for the past few bull runs in BTC. Takes about 1k days to cool off enough to flip trend and regain the ATH. Takes essentially a85% retrace of price to gain enough stopping power to finesse and flip it. Taking that into account we should dip to about 10k or so before takeoff around nest august when we push back towards the BTC ath. Once it breaks its Moon - ville. stay hydrated out there folks. ggs
Will Bulls push bitcoin higher ??BTC/4H Ascending Triangle with yellow uptrend line and white horizental line
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With the ascending triangle that btc formed and the consolidation at the high of its range showing the bulls might want to push it higher ~26849 then hopefully bears will enter and smack it down.
Another possibility is to hit ~26849 then do another bull retest and fill the gap from ~27400 to ~28900. The fact that we are holding here indicates we could fill the gap tomorrow on FOMC
we could consolidate today as well due to tomorrow FOMC meeting.Also Liquidity wise there are some high leverage liquidity to the downside
Detailed explanation and more information on video
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#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #10.Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
I continue to accompany this asset with a subjective vision.
In my opinion, a deeper correction is needed to continue the asset's gains.
All trading patterns should be searched for on the younger time frames (15 minutes, for example).
But in any case, the market will equalize everything, because it is always right .
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #9Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I am pleased to welcome everyone who wants to get acquainted with my vision of the current situation on this assets .
At this stage of the situation, we see this algorithm being clearly worked out. When an asset shows a strong movement without corrections.
The current situation only suggests that we need to wait for a possible corrective movement or flat movement.
Dear colleagues, I sincerely thank you all for your attention and wish you success!
And remember one thing:
"sometimes you win , sometimes you learn ".
Entry point
#Btc
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #7Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I am pleased to welcome everyone who wants to get acquainted with my vision of the current situation on this assets.
Why long?
As we discussed in the previous opinion, we saw how the price followed the stop loss.
At this stage of the situation, professional operators need to lock in profits and buy the asset at more favorable prices to continue moving up. Due to the stop losses, retail traders fill buy orders and it is possible to re-enter the position for further upward movement, because we need fuel to move further. But there is one thing: if there is not enough demand in this range and professional operators are not interested in continuing to move up, we will most likely see a depreciation of the asset.
Dear colleagues, I sincerely thank you all for your attention and wish you success!
And remember one thing:
"sometimes you win , sometimes you learn ".
#Btc
Evening trading at profit taking.Market participants take profits and close positions due to stop orders from weak market participants.
Warning, you need to be prepared for a false breakout of local highs.
If you have any questions, leave them in the comments and I will be happy to answer them.
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the trend!
BTC Bitcoin Double Top this month ! Price TargetI expect CPI data will come better than expected on Feb 14.
The medium forecast in 6.2, I expect 6 - 6.1.
The market will be exuberant afterwards and SPY will reach $431 by March 1st, thinking that the FED won the fight against inflation.
BTC Bitcoin will make a Double top at $24280, just to go lower by mid 2023 after SEC banning crypto staking in the US!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #8Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
I am pleased to welcome everyone who wants to get acquainted with my vision of the current situation on this assets.
After yesterday's impulsive movement, I expect the price of the asset to rise further. Yesterday, we witnessed professional operators testing the strength of the buyer, which was followed by an impulse movement. Today, the area of interest is 21600 - 21700 for further upward movement. But this is not the final price, it may fall even lower, because everything I write here is my subjective opinion, as the market will settle everything by itself, because the market is always right.
Dear colleagues, I sincerely thank you all for your attention and wish you success !
And remember one thing:
"sometimes you win , sometimes you learn ".
#Btc
Bitcoin just hit a massive BUY signal to $23,643Cup and Handle has formed on Bitcoin.
We have finally had the break above the brim level.
Now that the buyers and demand are streaming in we can expect upside.
7>21 Price >200 - Bullish
RSI>70
Target 23,643
FUNDAMENTALS
There seems to be a strong correlation for when the Global markets rally, Bitcoin tend to follow. I don't know if it's because they are so tied up in central businesses and with the government, but I can make some assumptions why:
Increased Investor Confidence
When global markets are performing well, investors tend to have more confidence in the economy and, in turn, more confidence in investing in various assets, including Bitcoin.
This can lead to an increase in demand for Bitcoin, which can drive its price up.
Increased Institutional Investment
We also tend to see institutional investors becoming more interested in alternative investments like Bitcoin.
Strengthening of the US Dollar
When global markets perform well, investors may move their money into the US dollar, which can drive up its value.
As Bitcoin is often traded against the US dollar, a strengthening dollar can lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
Similar to the gold standard, there is some effect with the Bitcoin US dollar standard.
Better Economic Activity
When global markets go up, it tells us that there is strong economic activtity which is picking up GDP and consumer and producer spending.
This extra money that investors have will then go to investments like Bitcoin, which will help with the increase in demand and price.
Trusting the big boys
Last year was a confidence destroyer with crypto currencies. We had companies failing, becoming bankrupt and price heading to zero. People lost billions of dollars and now they have no idea who to trust...
When it doubt, buy Bitcoin I guess.
When there's trouble in the crypto market who are you gonna call?
Bitcoin price, "FUD around BUSD", U.S. Economic Data This Week:The trading week started with a rather "active news background":
"Paxos (BUSD miner) will face a lawsuit from the SEC in connection with the issuance of unregistered securities (stablecoins).
With a total capitalization of $16B, BUSD is the 3rd largest stablecoin, with 90% of the stablecoin concentrated on Binance.
BUSD also accounts for 21% of all customer reserves on Binance.
The issuance of new BUSD has been suspended, and exchange for fiat dollars is still possible."
"Such a "regulatory raid" on Binance's partner may be a retaliatory operation by the US authorities to try to destroy the business of the offshore exchange Binance, after CZ became the starting point of the FTX fraud disclosure in November 2022 and refused to cooperate with USDC."
At the moment, it looks like another batch of FUDs "to bring" the market down to the desired levels. Securities are bought with the aim of making a profit from the asset's appreciation in the future, and the essence of stablecoins is a stable exchange rate, a stable trading deposit, without profit. The US dollar is not considered a security, right?)
In recent months, the cryptocurrency market has been strongly correlated with the SP500, which is directly dependent on US macroeconomic indicators.
U.S. Economic Data This Week:
- CPI Inflation (Tues.) 🔥.
- Retail Sales (Wed.)
- Ny Fed Manufacturing Index (Wed.)
- PPI Inflation (Thurs.)
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thurs.)
- Jobless Claims (Thurs.)
- Housing Starts (Thurs.)
We are most interested in the new inflation rate that will be announced tomorrow, Tuesday, February 14, 2013. After all, it's one of the main indicators that the FED wants to take control of and talks about at every speech is inflation at 2%.
Last month, the inflation rate dropped to a projected 6.5% and the cryptocurrency market exploded with growth on 12/01/2023.
Our expectations for tomorrow, 14.02.2023:
- inflation at 6.2 percent or more - falling prices on the crypto market
- lower-than-expected inflation < 6.2% may cause smooth growth.
Anyway, the crypto market has been growing very well for more than a month. Against the background of the previous downtrend for more than a year, the growth in January can be called phenomenal.
Personally, we do not have enough price correction to continue the growth.
There are two fractals on the chart:
1. We published the white one last week, and it is now working well and indicates that a drop to the liquidity zone of $18900-20400 is possible. For us, this is currently the main scenario, and it is in this liquid zone that we plan to buy long positions.
2. The blue scenario is in case super-positive CPI figures are announced tomorrow. Accordingly, the buy zone for long positions will be $21200-22300.
Which trading scenario for the coming week is more to your liking? Share your thoughts in the comments below the idea
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