Bitcoinpriceprediction
Bitcoin Medium Term Outlook (March and April 2021) - UpdateThe price has been beautifully sewing up and down the uptrend line. The coming moves have been forecasted using extrapolation data from the previous oscillations around the trend line. Based on the analysis I am expecting the price to retrace to 128 daily ma in mid to late April and hopefully get support and bounce of the moving average.
Where does BTC go from here?This chart has been drawn out by looking at the 2014 and 2017 tops and looking at the % difference between the 2017 LOWS comparing to the 2014 top.
Taking this difference, we can say from 2017 top we have a potential LOW for where we should be sitting at for a bear season low.
From there we can say the rally between 2014 and 2017 was 1400% which puts us roughly at $306,000. Calculating the down side in the 2017 bear season, it fell roughly 87%, if we are saying $306,000 is the top, then 85% retracement would put us roughly in the $42k BTC range.
The 3.5 Million Dollar Question BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #CryptoHere we see our Bitcoin weekly long-term chart from Bitstamp . You can see where we are now , seemingly starting the Bullrun year of 2021 .Can you see that blue question mark on my chart ? That would be 4 years from now during the next Bullrun year of 2025 . And if we continued to follow this long-term channel up it would take us near 3.5 million dollars Bitcoin in December 2025 ! That's not guaranteed but this channel has been in play since the last two Bull cycles ( the 4 year cycles . ) And we're still in this channel . We haven't left it yet . That means it's a strong channel. It's crazy to think this is possible . But people thought it was crazy Bitcoin could see 100k this year , but we're very close to that. It looks like it will happen soon. End of year could see us over 250k Btc . It's sobering to think how this could change lives .But thanks for reading and have a great day .
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/02/26Hi guys! I will be sharing the trades that I take in real time, follow to see how my trades work out!
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Market Overview
Price Action: Bitcoin broke above the 200MAs, but unfortunately when it retested 200MAs as support, it failed to hold up, and price broke below the 200MAs once again, leading to a much larger selloff as price failed to rally to the upside. That opened the door for a test of the lows @ $45K, and perhaps even opening up the potential for a correction all the way down to $40K.
Patterns: N/A
Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for me are the lows @ $45K and the 200MAs @ $49.5K. Once price reaches one of these areas, I will monitor for entry confirmations. If the entry confirmations are aligned, I will take a trade and share the my trade in real time.
Trade Setups
Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading:
Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown
1. Price Action: Price breaks below the then rapidly climbs above $45K, forming a bear trap
2. Trade Entry Confirmations: A breakdown candlestick followed by a reclaiming candlestick, above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle, MACD bottoming
Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs)
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $49.5K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back down.
2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bearish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD topping out
My Recent Trades
2021/ 02/012:I had a losing trade. I entered into a long @ $47,810, SL @ $46,647, and trade hit stop loss.
2021/ 02/04: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $$36,819.0, SL @ $$36,528.0, price reached a high of $37,783.8, giving a risk reward ratio of 3.3:1.
2021/ 01 /31: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $33654 SL @ $33292, price reached a high of $34220, giving a risk reward ratio of 1.6:1.
About Me
I started trading in 2008, first got introduced to bitcoin in 2009, and have been actively trading cryptocurrencies since 2016.
I have worked on Wall Street trading bonds, stocks, and options.
I have taken hundreds of live trades, each recorded with over 50 data points, all meticulously analyzed, using data analysis and modeling to optimize win probability and risk reward.
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DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a financial advisor and this post is NOT financial/investment/trading advice. I will not be responsible for any actions you take based on the analysis and comments that I provide. I am simply sharing what I am doing, and is not meant to be investment or trading advice. What you choose to do with the information that I provide is your own sole responsibility! The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and you WILL lose all your money if you are inexperienced! DO NOT risk any money that you cannot afford to lose and always be cautious and manage your risk!
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Christmas Presents BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #btcHello , here we see our Bitcoin weekly chart from Bitstamp with the long view ! All the way from 2012 to present market . And you can clearly see the channel we have been in with the black lines on top and bottom . During Bitcoin's last 2 Bullrun cycles it touched up to the top of that line at some point and there is no reason why it shouldn't do the same this time . Why ? Because this is a channel that has held for many years now - it's a long standing and strong indication of possible targets for Bitcoin price later this year - possibly in December 2021 . What are the possible targets ? Well if we touch up to that black line in early December where that pink X is we should actually be over $250000 per Bitcoin. A 250k or more Btc ! Not guaranteed obvioulsy , but it definitely would be a lovely Christmas present ! Have a great day everyone .
BTC Daily Long (still)We all know the rebound was coming, now it's time to reassess and move on. Still bullish on the Daily chart. I'm going to do some analysis on the 4hr and smaller to find myself another rebuy position.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Kihon Suchi Study possibility 1 & 2
Price closes no lower than the bottom edge of the box which is even with Kijun Sen
Potential ranging within the box prior to upward movement
Possibility 3 & 4
Price drop is supported successfully by Kumo without closing inside. No trades within the Kumo.
Potential ranging within the cloud if the candles close inside.
Capped the top at $60k as it's a milestone - reversal upward range? who knows, 70k?
Let's see what happens!
As always comments and ideas are greatly appreciated!
-Doc
This information is not trading advice, only my personal opinion on potential market movements, and is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin Medium Term Outlook (Mid Feb to Mid April 2021)The price has been beautifully sewing up and down the uptrend line. The coming moves have been forecasted using extrapolation data from the previous three oscillations around the trend line. Based on the analysis I am expecting the price to retrace to 128 daily ma in early and hopefully get support and bounce of the moving average.
72k incoming levels ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #btcHere we see our Bitcoin weekly chart from Bitstamp . I called 52k a couple weeks ago based on our fib extensions . 52k was near the 2.618 fib and sure enough it hit . I'll link that idea below. Can you see that white star on my chart ? That's sitting right next to our 3.618 fib extension . And this one now sits at 72220 area , that's our 3.618 fib . Above that is the 4.236 fib near 84500k . These would seem to be eventual targets above us but it's impossible to know how long this will take to get there. Keep in mind our Bitcoin Dominance chart could see downside first as alts may take a run . But let's see !
Bitcoin Plinko!These fib speed resistance arcs are probably not precise or correct, but I can't stop looking at it.
Tradingview skews it when I publish so see below.
I am mostly posting this so I can see how it works out over the next 2-3 months. I am fascinated with the geometry of markets.
How will we get to wear we are going?
Owhooooo!
Next Stop Bitcoin 52k ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTCHere we see our weekly Bitcoin chart which earlier hit close to 45k which was a previous level I predicted in a recent chart of mine I'll link below . But if you see that black arrow on my chart it is pointing at the 2.618 fib near 52264 which seems like it could be our next stop before further moves up . This isn't necessarily a straight line up ! But seems we will break above 50k soon enough . The swings are big now that we are in the Bullrun year . Also notice the 3.618 fib extension above that which sits at 72k ! That's a target too though it could definitely take a bit longer to reach these targets . Everything is looking good though . Don't assume this is happening today though , it could take some time . I'm just noting that an obvious target above us is the 2.618 fib . We should eventually we go there.
Bitcoin - Where are we going? To the moon of course!What a year for Bitcoin folks... There are some milestones before Bitcoin hit 100K But I truly believe Bitcoin will hit 100k still in 2021. Let's talk about the next step that is the 69k range. After a sharp correction into the 38.2% of Fibonacci, now we have this next milestone for our beloved Bitcoin. It won't be easy, but I don't see many issues to reach that.
I was very conservative in my approach. If we consider a wider range we can easily go through 150k USD. Although, let's walk one step at a time.
Bitcoin getting ready for another liftoff! $62K potentialHello! Here is my latest research on the price action. Found very close situation on the Bitcoin during late December 2020, you can see it on left screen. On the right screen we see current price action prior major breakout.
This comparison I marked in 3 stages, where
Stage 1 — Descending Triangle ABCDE
Stage 2 — Wedge Compression
Stage 3 — Breakout Impulse
In stage 1 we are watching for tricky correction in Descending Triangle with 5-zig-zag pattern (Elliott waves ABCDE)
Prior breakout from Stage 1 we can see Moving Averages Crossover and price start Impulse wave up.
In stage 2 we are watching for mostly bearish Wedge, price sloping up and selling pressure decreased so eventually price breakout to upside, crossing Level of resistance of Fibonacci 1.618 at $29885 on 02 January 2021.
Stage 3 is mainly impulsive wave 3 and 5 making sharp moves up and down and up again. In stage 3 you can see wave 4 retraced to level of resistance at 1.618 fib $29885 to retest the breakout.
This time seems like we are in the middle of Stage 2, almost finished Wedge compression. Looking forward breakout from resistance of 1.618 fib at $49724 and impulse leg up to $62100+ as stage3, and there I will expect major pullback to $49k.
Thanks for your attention, stay safe and use risk management.
Best regards
Artem Shevelev
THE BEST BITCOIN POST HALVING PREDICTION CHART ON TRADINGVIEW This is a continuous updated chart that I began creating once I discovered the power of numbers in particular the power of the Fibonacci Sequence. Please note the following:
-I kept each fib retracement tool on the same dollar amount 12.71 don't ask why lol but it has a great significance to my charting.
- Fib level .236 1.618 and 4.618 are very important levels and are constants in my charting. They display a pattern that is irrefutable which has a 90% accuracy no cap!
-I'm a novice at trading and desire to spread awareness of the crypto currency space so of possible please share this knowledge with others
It's near time for Bitcoin to flyWarning: our thoughts are ours and ours alone; not financial advice.
Bitcoin is ready to fly. The next stop will be between $47K - $48K. However, we need to see a close above the 21 MA soon.
Bitcoin is still holding the uptrend channel really well, that's a good sign.
If things change, we'll notify you. But for now, HODL those bitcoins.
SUPER CLEAR PLAN FOR A 3-4 THOUSAND DOLLAR LONG ON BTCWith fibonacci time and pivots from waves I have predicted the downward move to our 1-1 we have just completed before the bounce. we now have completed leg 1 and 2 and im preparing to get in on the 4th wave for a extended push up to the 1.236 and we will top and exit around the 1-1 time fibonacci. LONGING WHERE I PUT THE GREEN HIGHLIGHTED BOX. ENJOY MAKING $$$
Failure Is Not An Option in 2021 BTC/USDT #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see our Bitcoin daily chart from Binance . You will notice a blue line that shows where our previous All Time High was from 2017 near 19800 . Will Btc repeat it's performance from last time and rise almost 18 times up ? Why 18x ? Well back in early 2017 when Bitcoin revisited it's previous All Time High from 2014 near 1100 that ended up rising about 18 times up to 19800 at end of 2017 . We just revisited that 19800 high in December 2020 and we've blown past it . If we went 18x from there , where would that take us at end of 2021 ? Well 18 times 19800 is 354600 ! Could that even be possible ?? I don't know . We could be seeing diminishing returns here as Bitcoin matures but even 10x up from our previous All Time High would take us near 200k . And that would be excellent too ,if it happened. Let's see where this goes . See attached idea regarding Bitcoin's last Ath.
Next Extension Top 45k ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #btcHere we see our Bitcoin 3 day chart from Bitstamp . Can you see our Fib drawdown on the far right of the chart ? And the top fib that is visible says 2.618 at 45424 ? There is a pink arrow underneath it . That's the probable next stop on the way up for Bitcoin. As you can see we already hit the 1.618 fib extension at 29500 so the next one up is the 2.618 fib extension . And that's near 45k ! Looks great though of course there can always be some up and down on the way . I wish these charts let you see above this area! But still you can see this chart is looking good for near future .
But how long will it take to get there ? It's hard to say . It could be weeks or even months , of course no one knows exactly because alts may have their first run. Let's see what happens .
Bitcoin Price Today Full Analysis & What To Expect in New weekLike & Subscribe(Thanks for the support).
OH! Bitcoin Trading Ranges can be very Mean, especially if you are new to trading because in so many ways it can lead to you loosing your mind if you are ever caught in such trading conditions.
You feels like you always miss the pump and when you finally see a pullback, and jump straight in (FOMO) that is when the trading ranges always begin🤯
price starts acting funny, going up and down the same price range for days, 😰You tried to hold on but each time price moves, your heart moves with it.
Finally you decide to give up, take the loss, only for price to sprint back above your entry. Sounds familiar?
To understand trading ranges, I will start by Explaining what a trading range is.
What is a Trading range?
A trading range simply represents the period of time in a market when buy power is equal to sell power thereby forcing price to be compressed in a particular area on the chart this is also known a s consolidation or sideways movement.
but what could be the cause of this you may ask, it is simply because of confusion in the minds of traders if they should be buying or selling at that price area, this leads to a form of dragging between buyers and sellers of who will take charge of the next direction of price. The price is then contain between two walls(trendlines), The first is located above the price by connecting the top of the candlesticks called "resistance" this act as a roof or Barrier stopping price from moving further, The second trendline is located below the lows of the candlesticks connecting the low of the candles called a "Support" acting as a floor area where price bounce of after hitting the roof.Here Volume play an important role for a break off the trading range to occur.
in other words this is like a battle front where the buyers and seller clash, you can call it area of pure confusion,
For a trader to make profit he/she has to first determine who will be in charge of the next price move direction , in other to successfully trade to make profit, this only means that if buyers win, everyone will jump in a buy trade position leading to more upside but if sellers win instead, then everyone will focus on selling.
This simply means that only one of the two can succeed in any trading range, this is the major cause of uncertainty in the market during a consolidation Trading ranges which mostly occur after a stretched trend move in price, it can last for short time and long term sometime close to a year or more depending on the move that precedes it.
When a trading range occur, one of this is playing out in the back scene
* Accumulation(means buyers are buying more than sellers and even though price has not move it shows clear buy pressure and and price will end up breaking
Here is a view on 1hr chart of a short time sideways move
Here is an example of a long time trading range
* Distribution(here sellers has the upper pressure which only means the supply(sell) power is greater and price is likely going to break to the down side)
The bitter truth is that Over 75% of the time market will be in a range and only less than 25% you will see a clear trend, This is the tiring part that always lead to loss simply because most traders lack the patients.
How do you trade a trading range?
Many investors look at the duration of a trading range. Like I mentioned, large trending moves often follow extended range bound periods. What this simply means is that as a result of the compression of price in one area for so long, the price breakout , out of that area(range) will be explosive and is most likely to follow the direction of the preceding trading range.
Most Day traders frequently use this trading strategy by observing the trading of the first half-hour of the trading session as a reference point for their intraday strategies.
Here are my three ways of trading :
*1st strategy is to buy the lower trendline area that serve as support and sell the upper trendline that serve as resistance ,here you are expected to exit on the hit of the resistance until a clear breakout is seen,
( the disadvantage of this first option is that when price gets to the resistance you are most likely goin to fail to take profit as chances are high you will expect a breakout.)
*The Second strategy is by absolute patience and this requires you standing aside watching carefully to observe and wait for breakout, you buy the breakout( The downside of this strategy is that most times without proper observation or experience, most traders likely end up buying a fake or a tease line breakout only for price to get pullback into the range by the next open candle, because price is always being pulled to the center of every range by some sort of magnet kind of, I call it a vacuum which only increase the confusion in ranges). Here volume most play a very importance role in the confirmation of price move to avoid flash breakout signal.
*The third is probably the most secured Strategy with good higher probability of success up to over 65%,
here a traders maximum patience is fully required, by waiting for a breakout retest to trade in the first breakout direction.
What will happen here is that you allow price to clearly break the barrier then wait for it to come back to that same barrier but then this time form a higher low on the the broken barrier which will now prevent price from falling through . (when there is strong volatility in the market price will skip a retest but 85% of the time, price will retest a breakout area)
In the current case of bitcoin, Price is currently in the middle of the range which is acting as our vacuum,
This is the vacuum on 1hr chart
This vacuum will lead to price seeking support of the lower trendline support at 33k to 32500 support which will be Institutions and market makers hunting stop loss
this is how this will most likely happen
The support at 32k is likely going to be missed as a result of market makers and institutions buying that support.
From this support we could see a clear upside breakout that will crown this bull run all the way to $50K - 54k price range area.
Thanks for Reading.
Bitcoin 2013 Cycle Lessons Learned for Projecting 2021 TargetPossible Indicators / Patterns / Observations
1. It took BTC 7 month longer to reach its predicted March 2013 stock-to-flow target. It stayed also fairly close to that initial trajectory and then had a parabolic run up.
2. there was only one down trend and then a long (4 month) rather side ways movement
3. dropping below upper Bollinger band is a clear signal for downward trend shift
Let me know if you would like more explanations. I tried to put the core of it into the chart.
Basically the idea is what can we learn from the 2013 cycle as it is our only more reliable data point to look at.
How did it behave towards the expectations towards reaching its stock-to-flow target and was it in the same time frame?
Could we predict the parabolic curve Bitcoin will take in 2021 based on 2013?
What indicators can we use to know when there are buy-in / sell signals?
Please see also link to related idea for some more background.
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