Bitcoin 2013 Cycle Lessons Learned for Projecting 2021 TargetPossible Indicators / Patterns / Observations
1. It took BTC 7 month longer to reach its predicted March 2013 stock-to-flow target. It stayed also fairly close to that initial trajectory and then had a parabolic run up.
2. there was only one down trend and then a long (4 month) rather side ways movement
3. dropping below upper Bollinger band is a clear signal for downward trend shift
Let me know if you would like more explanations. I tried to put the core of it into the chart.
Basically the idea is what can we learn from the 2013 cycle as it is our only more reliable data point to look at.
How did it behave towards the expectations towards reaching its stock-to-flow target and was it in the same time frame?
Could we predict the parabolic curve Bitcoin will take in 2021 based on 2013?
What indicators can we use to know when there are buy-in / sell signals?
Please see also link to related idea for some more background.
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Bitcoinpriceprediction
Bitcoin 2017 Cycle Lessons Learned for Projecting 2021 TargetPossible Indicators / Patterns / Observations
1. BTC stayed close or below its $5.675 stock-to-flow target
2. There were 3 up and 2 down trend week groups to reach that target
3. dropping below the weekly Bollinger upper band seems to signal a downward retracement
4. downward retracement to Bollinger baseline possible
5. drawing the $19.6 ATH target give a great guide to track the development, however for the 2020/21 cycle we do not know the target.
Let me know if you would like more explanations. I tried to put the core of it into the chart.
Basically the idea is what can we learn from the last cycle as it is our only more reliable data point to look at.
How did it behave towards the expectations towards reaching its stock-to-flow target and was it in the same time frame?
Could we predict the parabolic curve Bitcoin will take in 2021 based on 2017?
What indicators can we use to know when there are buy-in / sell signals?
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
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!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
Bitcoin $100k-300+ Target - Watch out for rising volatility IIWanted to update my idea and put some more data points on my charts.
According to those Bitcoin is very aggressively pursuing maybe a even higher target then the lower $330k range or it is due for some major 30% type pullback.
Reason being that the trend line from the break of the all-time-high in 2017 to the new ATH end of 2017 would have been a higher boundary that was never really touched back then.
But the current price action is touching the $300k trendline hence either higher target or we are more likely to see the first 30% type pullback.
Why 30%? We can see those type of pull back end of 2017. So buckle up, make sure you put your stop loss orders in.
I did extend the volatility channel from the top of the $300k trend line down to the parabolic $100k trend line. So much more potential volatility to look out for.
Very difficult to predict the next moves. I am still long / bullish until July-ish, but right now neutral and carefully averaging back into some Bitcoin positions.
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Bitcoin is clearly showing by it's path over the last 3 weeks where it is potentially heading and on what type of parabolic trajectory.
If you project the last Bitcoin cycles growth after the breaking of the then all-time high ( ATH ) of $1.175 and reaching a peak at around $19.891 that makes a ~16.00% gain,
so projected to breaking the ATH at $19.891 that gives a potential target for Bitcoin at $336.657 around mid-August 2021.
If you then also take a look at the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin you could derive another potential target at $100.000 around also mid-August.
That give us two trend lines and a volatility channel to watch for and use
The $300k upper trendline could be an indicator for resistance and the lower $100 target trend line a potential support level for each week.
Please note the massive potential increase in volatility each week as the trend lines between $300k and $100k spread out. Prices can rise or drop in a range of 20k, then 3 weeks later 40k and so on.
There is no guarantee (for anything) that Bitcoin will hover along on the upper trend line . And so far the initial pump buys above $30k maybe sending the wrong signals to some.
Also be aware nobody! really knows what the target will be and influences or black swan events (compare with Corona price drop in Q1 or the SECs suit against Ripple) could occur in 2021.
Bitcoin appears to be in the next complete madness cycles of ridiculous growth that pales all other asset classes.
I have shifted my assets accordingly and am also (of course) closely watching alt coins. For now particular ETH and LTC.
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* this is not financial advice, but my own personal opinion *
Bitcoin 1h Price Outlook 31 December 2020 — BTC DOWNHere we go, after reaching 29k target we starting to decline a little. Keep in mind small move, but be ready for everything. Stop loss recommend to keep above 29k for safety.
How do you think 2021 will be bearish year?
On the chart 2 potential support zones for take profits.
Best regards, and happy new year
Artem Shevelev
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY BUY&SELL TRADE SETUPS 2020/12/27Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear this week, congratulations to everyone hodling BTC.
For those looking for an entry/trade, waiting for price to pull back to the 200MAs for a successful retest can be a relatively safe way of entering. While price can definitely continue to run up from here, the risk is higher longing at highs.
Bitcoin prepares for the ultimate liftoff to $20,000
Bitcoin is relentless with the fight for new all-time highs, especially now that bulls are in control.
The immediate support at the 50 SMA is key to the uptrend, therefore, it must be guarded at all costs.
Bitcoin bid farewell to the downtrend that came into the picture last week during the weekend. The flagship cryptocurrency built on the newly-established support at $16,200 and achieved significant gains above $18,000.
Bitcoin is ready for the final leg to $20,000
The king of cryptocurrencies is back in the trajectory eyeing new all-time highs. The slump to $16,000 was a temporary setback but again necessary for the continuation of the uptrend in bull markets.
Bitcoin is trading at $18,550 at the time of writing. The comeback from last week’s support has lifted most of the major digital assets upwards as well. Ethereum as discussed is almost hitting highs above $600 while eyeing $625.
On the other hand, Ripple is holding above $0.62 after gaining significant ground above the recent support at $0.45. The rest of the market is mainly green, considering the price action over the last 24 hours.
In the meantime, the bullish narrative has been validated by the liftoff above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. If the bellwether cryptocurrency stays above this level, its uptrend is likely to hold much longer.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence doubled down on the improving technical picture by making a comeback into the positive region. A bullish divergence above the MACD suggests that buyers will remain in control in the near term.
An increase in the trading volume could increase the tailwind and push BTC above $19,000. Trading above the resistance at $19,500 is likely to call for more buy orders as bulls speculate the final leg to $20,000.
It is worth mentioning that, the bullish outlook will be invalidated if Bitcoin corrects below the 50 SMA. Such a move is likely to lead to instability and panic in the market, similar to the breakdown last week. Losses may revisit the support at $16,200 and the 200 SMA.
Bitcoin intraday levels
Spot rate: $18,550
Relative change: 360
Percentage change: 2%
Trend: Bullish
Volatility: Expanding
New Monthly ATH (What this mean?)Hey there! Just shifting trough timeframes and notice this interesting fact.
Price on Monthly timeframe broke previous monthly Closing ATH at 13886 and now Monthly Closing price seems like will be higher than ever.
This is awesome fact, because in 2017 we can look at similar output from price.
In May 2017 price of btc broke 2013 ATH Monthly Close at 1102 and NEVER ever back to this price again (yet). I think this is impressive and gives thought about future of Bitcoin in 2021.
Let me know what you think, will price follow same shape this year and next?
Thanks for attention!
$4600 Bitcoin as 2021 low ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see that huge pink and blue regression channel on our 3 day chart . You can see we have reliably remained in this channel since 2018 even through highs and lows. It seems until All Time High is breached above 20k that we will remain in it . That means we will revisit the bottom pink part of the band at some point . If that happened , for instance , next summer of 2021 it would line up perfectly with our bottom trendline ( that thin purple line ) and bring us a $4600 Bitcoin price next summer . You can see it on my chart where the orange B is . Also that area is roughly where our .236 fib is from our full fib . This is a great collection of different indicators that we will see a great price sometime next year . I believe the price could always wick a bit above or below there though , say from 4200 to 5800 but for sure we should see sub 6k and as long as we don't break below our 2019 low of 3150 we are still long-term bullish .Good things ahead !
Bitcoin Complex Trading Zone. Hourly chart TA prior US ElectionsHey! Bitcoin price action gets more complex. In fact price forming Wedge, and now price bouncing of range 13900-13500. Now let's focus on two important places to open a trades:
13400 - breakdown from this level wil signalize of next possible down move, to 12800 at least (wedge trading strategy), which is good support for next period.
14100 - breakout up from this level will mean prices approaching higher levels, and will go to 15000+ zone.
Meanwhile US elections having very close race and only few states left to show who gon win. Remember, no matter who gon win, prices of the market will have it's own way in long-term perspective. Stay tuned.
Have a great day !
Bitcoin Higher High Incoming? BTC/USDT #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see our Binance Btc chart having hit 13300 (just like my chart from 5 days ago predicted , I'll link below ) and will probably see some retrace . But is this it ? Is that our high for 2020 or will we continue up after consolidation again ? I have to look at the big picture here . Our low last year in 2019 was around 3150 and then this year 2020 after our big dump out in March we hit a low of around 3760 . That's a Higher Low . Because our low this year is about 600 dollars higher than our low last year . A Higher Low is bullish , of course , when combined with Higher Highs ( as the chart moves up in a channel . ) So to be long term Bullish I believe we have to make a Higher High this year, and I think we will . Not higher than All Time High of 20 k , I mean higher than last years high of 13940. Now we have a fib right there at 13964 - you can see it in my chart written in black - that's our .65 fib . But if we hit up there and get rejected it would not really be a higher high , it would just be kind of the same level as last year . I don't think we are going for same level , I think we are going for Higher High from last year's number just under 14 k . So what is the next fib above there ? Above that .65 fib ? The next fib up is the .706 fib near 14879- see it written in red on my chart - this .706 fib is also know as a reversal zone fib and it seems like a good spot for Btc to top out this year ! Could happen in the next month . See the red arrow on my chart for possible area of 148xx price hit .
Bitcoin Potential Growth over 40% this year and 2021.Fundamentals not even kicked in... Still low media attention to Bitcoin. Pretty soon things will change.
Price action very familiar to 2016/2017, current price printing First Signs of Parabolic. This could bring prices to ATH back again.
But hey, do not hodl blindly, use stop loss, and learn how to improve in trading/investing.
Stay tuned to Artem Crypto
Bitcoin Next Stop isBitcoin loves to make fast pumps and dumps?! :)
From what we see this year, bitcoin making good moves and returns from crypto sectors is pretty high. But if you falled in fresh defi coins at the top in August/September, you are probably facing hard surge in you account. But don't give up. Prices of defi coins will not back to ATHs, but Bitcoin...
Bitcoin can back to ATH... And so far Bitcoin gives more stable yearly income than any other shitcoins on the market. So if you planning to invest for next year, well for sure you have to buy bitcoin each month during dips for your investment plan.
Speaking about current price action: I have noticed very interesting fractal which appears in parabolic curve:
So what I expect from it?
Price action near 12600 and 13800 for at least next two weeks. Then sudden pump to 15000$ +++ zones.
Please make sure you following risk management, and not trying to guess you wins/losses. Stay tuned and have good profits!
This is Artem Crypto
NEXT BITCOIN TARGET UNTILL 2021Hey! Bitcoin printing another bullish pattern , which can lead us to 15000 in 2020.
Here is why:
My view is based on EW I did changed a bit map, found similarities in smaller sub 3-4 waves, which pointed to bigger wave orange ③-④ setup, which I thought will be alt. But after all it seems like it is main one. Now Alt 1 and alt 2 considered less probable.
Where to buy?
So my point is we are going to see price sub 12000 again or we will go near it at 11500... Buy the dip is a good point.
Where to sell and take profits?
I will expect rise up to 14k with dip down to sub 13-12.5k. Then another wave of rise up to 15k and possible extension to 20k... This might happen during christmas / Q1 of 2021.
What will be with coins and tokens (altcoins)
Usually alts dies during such moves, so be careful, and try to cut unnecessary positions. I will send holding signals for coins when such price action appears.
Stay tuned to Artem Crypto! Have a good profits!
Bitcoin Price Continuation PlanHey! Here you can see 1D chart of bitcoin, and what it takes to grow from here:
1. MA setup in bullish order
2. Next resistance shouldn't be very heavy to break
3. We all remember 10k Guardian :)
Good luck and nice profits. Do not run into trouble using wrong risk size. Contact me if you need any help
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC/USD Poised For Recovery
Bitcoin nurtures an uptrend after building on the support at $10,400 over the weekend.
The pioneer cryptocurrency looks forward to a symmetrical triangle breakout, targeting levels past $11,000.
Bitcoin is on its way to recovery towards $11,000. The reversal comes after the flagship cryptocurrency plunged to $10,400 last week. At first, price actions to the north were lethargic mainly due to the resistance at $10,600. However, BTC is currently exchanging hands above $10,700 amid a consistent push by the bulls for gains towards $11,000.
The bellwether cryptocurrency has stepped above both 50 Simple Moving Average and 100 SMA in the 4-hour timeframe. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights the uptrend as it closes in on the overbought area. The RSI indicates to the trader how strong a particular trend is and if the asset is overbought or oversold.
For now, the path of least resistance seems to be to the upside. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is used in technical analysis to signal either a breakout or a breakdown. A breakout takes place above the upper trendline and a breakdown happens beneath the lower trendline. Breakouts are characterized by an increase in volume. Therefore, if the uptrend continues, there is the likelihood of a breakout coming into the picture and sending Bitcoin significantly above $11,000.
Simultaneously, resistance is expected at $10,800. If bulls fail to break this hurdle, a reversal could occur and may revisit the support at $10,600. The 50 SMA and 100 SMA are in line to offer support, possibly prevent losses towards $10,600. In the meantime, holding above $10,700 is key to the uptrend and the potential breakout from the symmetrical triangle.
Bitcoin Intraday Levels
Spot rate: $10,705
Relative change: 28
Percentage change: 0.3%
Trend: Bullish
Volatility: Expanding