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#BTC/USDT Weekend Update!#BTCUSDT: Not much is happening—just sideways price action on low volume due to the weekend. Expecting more volatility on Monday after the weekly close. For now, OB remains untested so be ready if that gets tested, possibly $63k-$64.3k. It will give us some good entries for scalp and swing in altcoins. With both the monthly and weekly closes approaching, these will be crucial. We’ll need a few confirmations for the anticipated "UPtober." I’ll be sharing more details on Monday. Alts? Alts might be choppy for now, but I expect strong rallies next month. Remember, dips are for buying! Have a great weekend folks! Do hit the like button if you like it and share your views in the comment section. Thank you #PEACE
by Cryptorphic
4
BITCOIN ULTIMATE PARABOLIC CURVE CHART | Insane $181,267 Target!🟢 Hello, fellow traders! I’m excited to share an update on Bitcoin price prediction and the potential implications of the Parabolic Curve pattern we witnessing at the moment! Today, let’s dive into the Parabolic Curve as Bitcoin approached the end point of Base 4. Understanding this pattern can help us evaluate future trading opportunities. The Parabolic Curve often surfaces near the culmination of major market surges, marking the end result of multiple base formation breaks. This pattern is typically seen in growth assets with innovative technology or visionary leadership — Bitcoin is a prime example. Last year, at the pivotal point of Base 3 , indicated by the "X" on the chart at $25,700 , Bitcoin doubled in a remarkably short timeframe. The hallmark of this pattern was its staircase-like formation, where the price created short-term bases before catapulting to new highs, repeating this cycle multiple times during its ascent. In my analysis using Fibonacci tools and Elliott Waves , I've observed that: Base 4 in the range between the $72,759 resistance and $55,257 support , with lowest spike at $49,000 . The anticipated sell zone for the parabolic move was positioned between $149,175 and $181,267 . This parabolic curve, reminiscent of a rocket's trajectory, has demonstrated significant persistence. However, as we saw, caution is a key as this pattern near completion; rapid upward momentum can conclude abruptly, resulting in price declines that outpace previous gains. What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's recent movements? Did you spot the Parabolic Curve unfolding as anticipated? Share your insights in the comments below — I’d love to hear your perspective! Your support means the world to me, so if you found this analysis valuable, please smash that like button and follow for more insights!
Long
by ArShevelev
33
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action + trade planTechnical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action with multiple indicators and a descending triangle pattern by Blaž Fabjan Chart Patterns Descending Triangle: This is a classic pattern that typically suggests consolidation, and in many cases, a breakout (especially when formed in an uptrend). The triangle seems to be nearing the apex, indicating that a breakout could happen soon. Breakout potential: Since it's forming within an overall uptrend, the triangle suggests the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend after the consolidation. Indicators VMC Cipher B: The VMC Cipher B shows wave-like movements indicating market momentum and divergences. It looks like the waves are approaching a positive curve, indicating a potential bullish movement if confirmed by momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 50.49, which shows a neutral trend at the moment. No overbought or oversold conditions are present, leaving room for upward or downward movement depending on the breakout direction. Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The stochastic shows a level of 43.32 (blue) vs 56.91 (orange), indicating a slight bearish momentum, but it could reverse if price continues consolidating and breaks upwards. HMA+ Histogram: The histogram appears to show bearish pressure with negative values such as -55.9, though it looks like it may start to shift upwards if there's enough buying momentum. Volume: The volume appears lower during consolidation, which is typical before a significant move. Watch for an increase in volume as the price approaches the end of the triangle. Support and Resistance: Support: Around 63,800 USDT (marked by the bottom of the triangle). Resistance: Immediate resistance appears at around 64,200 USDT, the upper trendline of the descending triangle. Trading Plan: Breakout Strategy: Bullish scenario: If BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, enter a long position after confirmation (e.g., after the price breaks above 64,200 USDT with volume). Place a stop-loss slightly below the triangle's bottom at around 63,500 USDT. Target price: A potential upward target could be around 67,000 USDT (previous high) based on the size of the triangle. Bearish scenario: If the price breaks below the triangle’s bottom (around 63,800 USDT) with volume, a short position can be considered. In this case, place a stop-loss just above the upper trendline of the triangle (around 64,500 USDT). Target price: A downside target would be around 62,000 USDT, depending on how strong the downward momentum is. Risk Management: Set a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:2, considering the uncertainty of the consolidation period. Adjust your position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your capital on the trade. In summary, BTC is consolidating in a descending triangle within an uptrend, and a breakout in either direction is likely. Watch for volume and confirmation before taking a position, and stick to a disciplined risk management plan.
Long
by elfabiiani
technical analysis and trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)Technical analysis and trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) by Blaž Fabjan Bullish Pennant Formation: The chart shows a bullish pennant pattern, which typically indicates a continuation of the prior upward trend. This suggests that once the consolidation within the pennant breaks to the upside, there could be a further rally. Support and Resistance Levels: Support Level: Around $61,758.48, which is holding the price within the consolidation. Resistance Level: The next significant resistance is around $64,591.15. If the price breaks the resistance of the pennant, it could target higher levels, potentially leading toward $68,556.87 as a bullish target. Volume: There’s a moderate amount of volume, but a volume breakout would be needed to confirm the movement in either direction. Indicators: VMC Cipher B Divergences is showing some green dots indicating bullish divergence, which further supports the potential for an upward breakout. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI value is around 53.94, suggesting that the market is in a neutral zone. It's neither overbought nor oversold, giving room for movement in either direction. Stochastic Oscillator: Around 36.45, slightly on the lower end, signaling that Bitcoin might be in an oversold position on the short-term, indicating a potential upward reversal. Trendline Projection: The image also indicates an upward price projection beyond $67,000 if the pennant breaks to the upside, aligning with the bullish sentiment. Trading Plan: Buy Scenario (Bullish Breakout): Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if Bitcoin breaks above the upper trendline of the pennant and surpasses the $64,000 resistance level with strong volume confirmation. Take Profit Levels: First target: $64,591.15 (immediate resistance). Second target: $68,000. Final target: $68,556.87 (upper resistance). Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the $61,758.48 support level or just below the lower trendline of the pennant. Sell Scenario (Bearish Breakdown): Entry Point: If Bitcoin breaks below the lower trendline of the pennant and the $61,758.48 support level, it might indicate a bearish reversal. Consider entering a short position. Take Profit Levels: Look for a price drop toward $60,301.68 or lower. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the pennant resistance level around $63,000 to limit risk. Conservative Strategy: Wait for a clear breakout from the pennant either way before entering any trade. Watch for confirmation through volume increase, as this would validate the direction of the breakout. Final Notes: The chart leans toward a bullish continuation, but confirmation from volume and a breakout from the pennant are key before making any trades. Always manage risk carefully by setting stop losses and taking partial profits along the way. I hope this information assists you in making more informed decisions during your trading activities. Enjoy! Blaž Fabjan
Long
by elfabiiani
The difficult path for Bitcoin: don’t Miss the Critical EntryGood morning and good afternoon, traders 🌅. Welcome back to Strategy Master, the only crypto newsletter that dissects market cycles and alerts you before major reversals 🔄. Quick summary before we dive in: ✍️ Bitcoin’s 60-day Cycle low hit on September 6th – what’s next? ✍️ Ideal entry points for 1D, 3D, and 1W Cycles explained 🕵️‍♂️ 🎯The 26-Week Cycle breakdown – what to watch for in 2024 📅 🔔 Why Bitcoin staying above $50k is key to the current cycle 💪 As anticipated, Bitcoin hit its 60-day cycle low on September 6th and has been climbing 📈 ever since. Interestingly, Bitcoin showed impressive resilience, starting its upward move even before reaching the expected bottom of the 1-week cycle. Ok, Strategy Master, this sounds great, but I missed the trade! Where are the best entry points according to Cycle theory? 🎯 No worries 😅—cycles give us the clearest signals for optimal entries. Here’s where to look: ⏳ 60-Day Cycle: The best entry comes near the cycle lows (see the pink box 📦 around early September). If you missed this one, your next chance will come in about 45 days. 📉 1-Day Cycle: Wait for the 1-day cycle to reverse from falling 📉 to rising 📈 (ideally when the indicator is below 20). The last time it flipped was on September 16th. Typically, after hitting 80, it takes ~7 days to return to 20 again. 📊 3-Day Cycle: The ideal time to enter is when the 3-day cycle indicator starts rising 📈, or when it’s below 20. However, the 1-day cycle must also be in the right position. If the 3-day indicator reverses upwards but the 1-day is still above 80 ⚖️, it’s better to wait for a cool-down. On September 17th, both the 1-day and 3-day cycles lined up perfectly. 🗓️ 1-Week Cycle: This cycle is more significant 🔑 than the 3-day because it reflects a longer trend (1-2 months 📅). You can enter once the 1-day condition is met—no need to wait for the 3-day confirmation. Again, September 17th presented a perfect setup (1-week reversal) 🎯. Strategy Master, you’ve previously mentioned Bitcoin’s 26-week cycles. How does that fit into this picture? 🤔 Bitcoin operates on 60-day cycles, with three such cycles typically making up one 26-week cycle. In bull markets 🐂, the first 60-day cycle is usually the strongest 💥 and tends to be “right-translated” (the peak occurs in the second half of the cycle). The final cycle, however, is often “left-translated,” with the top appearing in the first 30 days. In early 2024, we saw the 26-week cycle bottom in January 🏞️, followed by a strong rally from February to March 🏁. However, after that, two left-translated 60-day cycles led us to the 26-week cycle low in July. It’s important to remember that 26-week cycles don’t always last exactly 26 weeks ⏱️. Since 60-day cycles can vary from 45 to 68 days, 26-week cycles can stretch from 20 to 30 weeks 📅. Rarely, they can even deviate beyond that, as we saw in August 2023 when the 26-week cycle lasted just 13 days before kicking off the current bull run 🚀. To better time these cycles, use the 1W Cycle Indicator or the Weekly Stoch RSI (set RSI and Stoch Length to 9) to identify 26-week cycle bottoms 🔻. Ok, Master, what if the first 60-day cycle of the 26-week cycle is bearish 🐻, like it was this time? When the first 60-day cycle is bearish 😓, the odds lean heavily toward a bearish 26-week cycle. Look back at previous bear markets 📉 and their weekly cycles to see the pattern. If the start of the 26-week cycle doesn’t surge upward 🛫, it’s usually a signal of a bearish cycle ⚠️. In such cases, it’s often wiser to wait for the next 26-week cycle low before entering the market ⏳. So, is the current 26-week cycle starting bearish too? Correct! ✅ That’s why I’m not allocating heavily 💡 right now. Based on traditional weekly cycle patterns, it’s better to wait for the 26-week cycle bottom before making any major moves 📉. Bitcoin could reverse its trend by the end of 2024 The market is in an unusual state 🌀. Both the Stoch RSI and the 1-week cycle indicator aren’t giving clear signals ❓ for the next cycle, and Bitcoin has had two failed weekly cycles in a row 🚩 (when the cycle fails to hit 80 and reverses downward). This makes it a particularly risky time ⚠️ to enter the market for the short to medium term (1-2 months 📅). But wait … we can’t break the $50,000 level, right? 💵 We can, but if it happens, the break is likely to be brief 🌬️, making it a great buying opportunity 💼. Given the current conditions, it’s improbable that we’ll slide into a full-blown bear market 🐻 just yet. In the most likely scenario, Bitcoin will stay above $50,000 for the remainder of this 26-week cycle, showing just how resilient it is 💪.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by TheStrategyMaster
Bitcoin Approaching Critical Support: Prepare for a Big MoveBitcoin is entering a decisive phase this September, with a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern forming on both the weekly and daily charts. This pattern typically signals potential volatility, and we are now approaching the descending support trendline, which also aligns with the wick from the sharp price dump on August 5th. This region, around 48K, is likely to be tested in the coming days as the market seeks to sweep liquidity. Key Support Zones to Watch: Crucial Support Zone 1: The first line of defense. If Bitcoin holds here, we could start seeing signs of bullish momentum returning. Crucial Support Zone 2: A deeper level of support. Breaking below this zone could lead to a more extended bearish trend. In the event that these levels are broken and confirmation bearish candles start forming, we could see Bitcoin testing 42K, 40K, and even 36K in the weeks ahead. However, if Bitcoin holds these zones and begins to print higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), it would be an early sign that the downtrend might be over. Also an important element in this setup is the 100-day EMA, which aligns perfectly with Crucial Support Zone 2. This adds a layer of confidence that the price may find strong support here. The confluence of the 100-day EMA with this key support level suggests that a touch of this zone could trigger the next major move, potentially kickstarting a rally. Strategy for Traders: Swing Traders/Spot Traders: Pay close attention to the support zones, as these levels could present excellent buying opportunities. A bounce from these areas might indicate the start of a new rally, so it’s time to prepare and fill your bags. Scalpers: Be mindful of the resistance zones. The price may spike slightly before retesting lower levels, providing potential shorting opportunities. Watch closely for a "soft" or "hard" landing around 50K-48K. Caution: Bull Trap Alert If Bitcoin encounters a pump in the near term, be cautious about falling into a bull trap. All signs currently point to a retest of the 50K and 48K zones as highly probable, so don’t get caught up in premature optimism.
by MadeByAK
Remember! Remember! The 5th of November!Thursday... the 5th of November 2020... CRYPTOCAP:BTC pumped nearly 7% in one day. We were 30ish days into the parabolic phase of the 3rd bull cycle for #Bitcoin. It was trading at $14,911. The holders had no idea that CRYPTOCAP:BTC would continue to climb an additional 335% over another 5 months, reaching a local ATH of $64,895 on April 14th 2021. Here we are on September 6th, 2024. CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped to $52,546 or (-3.8%) for the day. Septembers are a sore subject when it comes to financial markets and Bitcoin in particular. Across the Post-Halving years, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will drop -2% historically. Considering CRYPTOCAP:BTC has tested local lows across the 5th and 6th of the last 3 months; July 5-6th low: $53,499 August 5-6th low: $49,050 September 5-6th low: $52,546 (so far) It is almost like someone is trolling the Holders... The focus of this chart is to consider the above and the following. Have we found our local bottom this early in September? ($52,546) How will Bitcoin react to the upcoming 25 bps Fed Rate cut? ($50,000 vs $60,000) Will our price position entering the parabolic phase affect the overall gains over the next 6 months? (90% vs 480%) Where will our new ATH fall next April/May? ($100,000 vs $305,000) Let me know how bearish or bullish you think the future of Bitcoin is.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
$IBIT Gap Filled As Forecast (New Leading Bitcoin Indicator?)Proof that this works? So far it's 100% accurate. Every single 'Gap' on the NASDAQ:IBIT 4-Hour chart has filled. Refer back to my prior videos showing this, and while this does NOT mean it will continue to work forever... It's certainly a curious anomoly. And likely works based on the same principals as the CME gaps which typically fill 99% of the time (There's still an unfilled gap on the Bitcoin CME at $9750 as I recall). But who's counting. Going forward, I'll be using this as an additional guide to where price may be heading and potentially reversing to, before resuming trent. Like and share this with your other trader friends, as this has been very interesting to monitor!
NASDAQ:IBITShort
by BrettFogle
1
Bitcoin’s Rounded Top [Wyckoff Distribution]: 5 Phases to KnowHello, Trading Community! Today, we dive into the fascinating world of the Wyckoff Distribution model as it applies to Bitcoin's current market structure. Please remember that this article is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as trading advice. While we explore potential scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin heading down to $30,000 or even $25,000, these claims are speculative and should be considered hypothetical. The Wyckoff Distribution Model: A Roadmap for Market Tops The Wyckoff Distribution model offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how major market players distribute their holdings before a significant downturn. It is divided into several phases: Phase A: The market begins to show preliminary signs of selling pressure after an extended uptrend. This is the first hint that the balance of power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Phase B: The market enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways as large investors gradually distribute their positions. Phase C: A deceptive breakout, known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), occurs here, often trapping unsuspecting retail traders. Phase D: The onset of a decline, marked by clear Signs of Weakness (SOW), indicates that the distribution phase is nearing its end. Phase E: The final phase, where the market confirms the distribution and continues to fall, marking the completion of the process. Breaking Down Bitcoin's Key Price Points Let's take a closer look at the crucial price points that have defined Bitcoin's current structure within the Wyckoff Distribution model: Buying Climax (BC) - $73,660 This is the pinnacle of buying activity, where demand reaches its peak before supply starts to dominate. For Bitcoin, this level marked the highest point in the current cycle before a significant sell-off began. Automatic Reaction (AR) - $60,795 Following the Buying Climax, the market experienced an Automatic Reaction—a sharp drop as sellers stepped in. This level is critical as it signifies the start of the distribution process. Upthrust (UT) - $71,180 The Upthrust represents a rally that tests the resistance near the Buying Climax. However, it fails to sustain those levels, hinting that the market's upward momentum is weakening. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) - $71,680 The UTAD often serves as a bull trap, where the price makes a final push above the resistance only to quickly reverse. This move confirms that distribution is taking place. Sign of Weakness (SOW) - $54,344 After the UTAD, the market drops significantly, signaling a clear Sign of Weakness. This level demonstrates that sellers are gaining control, pushing the price to new lows. Last Point of Supply 1 (LPSY 1) - $70,040 The first Last Point of Supply (LPSY 1) is a weaker rally that fails to reach previous highs. This is a key indicator that the market's bullish momentum is fading, and distribution is nearing completion. Last Point of Supply 2 (LPSY 2) - $65,105 Currently, Bitcoin is in Phase E, at the LPSY 2 point. This level is crucial as it typically marks the final confirmation of distribution before a sustained downtrend. Navigating Phase E: The Final Act of Distribution As Bitcoin navigates through Phase E, the LPSY 2 level becomes a focal point. This phase is characterized by further price declines as the market confirms the distribution. Here’s what to watch for: Lower Highs and Lower Lows: Expect the price to continue forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish trend. Volume Patterns: During this phase, volume analysis becomes critical. Look for decreasing volume on upswings and increasing volume on downswings, which confirms the presence of distribution. Final Thoughts The Wyckoff Distribution model provides a structured way to understand how markets transition from bullish to bearish trends. With Bitcoin currently exhibiting a Rounded Top structure and sitting at LPSY 2 in Phase E, the evidence suggests that we may be on the cusp of further declines. By staying vigilant and analyzing key price levels and volume patterns, traders can better position themselves to navigate this challenging market environment. In this complex market phase, understanding the underlying forces at play can be the difference between protecting your capital and being caught off guard by the next big move. Stay tuned for more!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
5
"Powell and Trump's Pump" & New Study Showing BTC Fractal TargetWe had a nice pump in the markets today, stemming from J Powell's comments from Jackson Hole signalling not only one rate cut coming in September, but likely multiple (not priced in). RFK also kinda sorta endorsed trump but still kept the Hail Mary option open for him to still get elected (Don't hold your breath, although I'd love to see that. RFK had a great speech at Bitcion 2024 and is a good man, but doesn't have the votes). Markets reacted positively and some are boldly saying 'The Bull Run is Back'. 🚀 We shall see. Students of Hurst's Market Cycles will also note that this week (tomorrow the 24th preciely) should be the weekly cycle low, so that could also be a contributing factor. In this video, I briefly review the NASDAQ:IBIT chart showing one open unfilled gap lower (this can take awhile and so this is still on the table) as well as the new BTC fractal study I mentioned. (But I forgot to share the DXY chart showing that we're testing the important 101 level, which is looking like it's going to cut right through it like a hot knife through buttah). Most interesting... Check out this fractal overlay I pulled from earlier in the year, showing the possible path of Bitcoin higher, and that almost exacly lines up with current / previous trendline S&R as well as my Fibonacci price target of $150, which you can review in some of my other posts here... Finally seems like we'll have the wind at our back soon. While this was a nice breeze, I'm going to remain cautious and wait for confirmations higher to go 'all in'. For me, that's seeing confirmed closing price action above $74k. See the video for some specific / excact entries. If you'd like me to cover anything in future videos, leave a comment below. Thanks again to the TradingView team for choosing my last video as 'Editors Pick' today! 🚀🚀 Keep up the good work guys!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by BrettFogle
2
New IBIT Downside Gap To Fill Signaling Bitcoin RetracementWe have been following the BlackRock NASDAQ:IBIT 1 Hour and 4 hour chart since it was released earlier this year, and noticing that... Like the CME chart gaps, the IBIT chart gaps also similarly seem to fill. EVERY ONE SO FAR. So I'm now eyeing this lower gap to fill, and since the IBIT tends to be a leading signal to Bitcoin price, I'm expecting Bitcoin to drift lower to re-test recent lows before heading higher again.
NASDAQ:IBITShort
by BrettFogle