This is why Bitcoin went Parabolic - Technical Analysis Prevails"History repeats itself", as they say - especially in the case of a market as predictable, albeit volatile, as Bitcoin.
During the recent parabolic move in Bitcoin, most indicators have been screaming overbought and calling for a selloff. Despite these warnings, BTC has continued to move higher leaving most people scratching their heads and saying that technical analysis is "broken" and "doesn't work for crypto markets". What is the reason for it? Manipulation by whales? FOMO? Moon bois? Ironically, we can find the answer if we are vigilant and follow the most basic of technical teachings.
As you can see back at the beginning of the 2014 bear market, Bitcoin was in a descending pennant formation, indicated by the dotted blue line. It then broke out as expected, only to give back the entire move and continue forming new lows.
Similar to what happened in 2014, but on a larger scale, Bitcoin has been in a descending pennant formation since January 2018 - though this time the price has been "manipulated" in a way to conceal the descending pennant pattern that was forming. It's my hypothesis that BTC was artifically held up around the $6200 level during the second half of 2018, until it finally collapsed in November. This would also create "fake" resistance around the $6200 level, which would allow BTC to easily pass through it on the way back up. But I digress.
Breakout of the pennant formation around $4000 saw Bitcoin explode upwards in a parabolic move to complete the technical pattern.
So where do we go from here?
Similar to the 2014 bear market, I expect Bitcoin to give back the entire parabolic move to revisit $4000 to $4400. As you can see, the NVT indicator is screaming for a sell off and I believe it will come swiftly.
I do not know where the top is but I would say we are relatively close to it. I do NOT think Bitcoin will continue on as the 2014 bear market did to reach new lows, as we are too far into the bear market cycle.
I am not trading at the moment and awaiting further confirmation of market direction before I enter into any trades.
**WARNING - This is only speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Make trades based on your own analysis and opinions**
Bitcoinpricetrendanalysis
UPDATE: Revised Lazy Trader for #Bitcoin profit $11,126,800.14Here are the NEW rules
1. We only use Weekly chart for buy and sell signals
BUY:
Weekly candle must be above the 20MA
Stochastic RSI upward but not above 80
MACD at least 3 histogram bars in a reverse swing buyers momentum
if all rules are met buy on the week start
Sell:
Sell 50% if Stochastic RSI has been above 80 and drops below - sell into the 2nd week of it being triggered
this changes the outcome to $11,126,800.14 from $8,299,810.26
(buy back in if ALL BUY RULES ARE MET)
if the candle closes below the 20MA sell the rest of the 50% or all
#NOTE this can be highly more profitable with a bit of tweakingChanging
Bitcoin testing $3500 , Bullish or Bearin long term trend line it is getting support around $3500 - $3600 , It tested it 3 times in last one month, Tried to break but bounced back if it holds here then we can see quick bounce back if not then we can se downfall to $100 to $200 more from here & we can see it to $3400 - $3200
Again $3750, it is facing resistance in long term trend line , tried to break but couldn't able to sustain thr for long term and felt, Now its like a Ping Pong game or a kind of spring, getting more and more squeezed to the end.
$4000 is a resistance in short trend line and whenever it go thr then get rejected. So need to watch this also and trade, If it breakout after $4k then $4400 - $4850 will be the next resistance
It just broke short trend line and felt from there which is not good sign but if compare to the long trend line BTC getting support which is quite bullish.
BTCUSD been repeating the downtrend retracement at 61.8% fiboFrom the chart, the 61.8% fibonacci level on the downtrend has been acting as the major resistant for bitcoin for the entire year so far. The next 61.8% fibonacci level will be at 6910 which is just around the current downtrend trendline, breaking this resistant could signal a major uptrend move.
Currently strong support at 6000 USD so watch out for the entry around there and HODL if it manages to break the next 61.8% fibo at 6910. Breaking below ~6000 USD could signal a continuation for downtrend, but a failed break low could be a signal for a long position.
I'll remain neutral at the moment and wait to see the price action for either side which should happen pretty soon.
Bitcoin might just be relaxing a bit, to continue down further..Bitcoin has shown some strength in the recent days, but it also has no reason to go up, except for a Short Squeeze. Why wouldn't I call it a reversal yet? Cuz we still need to cross previous resistances (as high as 10k) to say we're in bullish territories. Also, the strength if the green candles is quickly sizzling off, and the bears are probably just resting for sometime... I'd look to short in the range of 7800 - 8250.