Bitcoinscenarios
bitcoin price prediction this summercreated by analyzing fib retracements (not shown in chart) and natural volume based and trend based support and resistance, we will fall anywhere between 7200-6350 before a recovery over the next 8-12 weeks. Could happen in a matter of days though. As you can see, my prediction from our wedge played out correctly as well. We are OVERDUE for a BIG correction in the 25-40% magnitude range from our first 1000$ candle or from the start of our parabola in early May. Which one depends on a number of factors including support, RSI etc which all point to a .618 retrace of our parabola to the $6000's then back up but slowly and in a healthy manner this time around. Sitting in overbought territory on the RSI on the daily and weekly is NOT a good time to buy. Good luck and be careful.
BITCOIN ROCKET ABOUT TO TAKE OFF!!! Hey Everyone,
I have been coaxed back here from the social media platforms I usually post on (links in bio)
If you follow me on those platforms you will know I have had the parabola (wayyyyy before other traders noticed it ;) ) on my charts since around $4,000USD, and also said if we broke $6300 we would see $10,000USD... GUESS WHAT? We are nearly there!
I have 3 targets coming up - the 2 pink lines are subwave Targets and the Upper Yellow Line our greater wave target.
Target 1: 9444
Target 2: 10162
Target 3: 10750 (overall Target 11)
The volume right now is being moved by Futures Expiring and Crypto Funds starting to invest more into the market.
If we keep an eye on the GLOBAL MARKET CAP, we can access when ALTs or BTC are about to move, it is quite an obsession of mine right now. Over the last 2 days BTC dominance has stabilized at 57.4% and had dropped as low at 55.7% in the preceding days which gave the ALTs the opportunity to bounce.
Since the start of MAY we have seen the Global Market Cap grow 100 BILLION DOLLARS that is massive when you think about it and the 24hour volume has been fluctuating between 90 BILLION peaking at around 110 BILLION to break key levels.
TO EXPLAIN HOW DOMINANCE WORKS
What happens is BTC dominance grows, and until we get new money flow in the markets, BTC grows and the money is taken from the ALTs which right now are standing fairly still. For a bull run to happen - the WHALES understand that BTC is the KING - BTC rules the market.
The reason being, the MEDIA do not pick up ALTs they ONLY look at BTC - once BTC is at a premium price, Mum and Dads and retails buyers think, I will buy the cheaper coin, I can have more and there is more chance I will get rich quick... at this point dominance settles, it will still be quite high. At least mid 60s.
Then this is where the greed sets in. The FOMO buys rush in, and BTC and ALTs at this point moon. Depending on how much media attention BTC gets, will depend on the All Time High being broken. Right Now I am seeing a fairly easy $10,750 on the charts. This could increase with media hype and greed.
THIS IS HOW DOMINANCE WORKS AND WHY I AM OBSESSED we can read market direction from dominance and money flow in and out. It is just another tool in your trading kit.
REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION
(minimise your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<3 Lisa
DISCLAIMER:
The Legal stuff - I'm not financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons...
PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
Bitcoin Pricing and Game of Thrones connectionStrange correlation between Bitcoin price and Game of thrones season airing. Since the inception of Bitcoin, we have never had a bear market during the GOT Season. Every season has had relatively positive movement as explained by the cycle. The biggest of them being in Season 7 in 2017 with a whopping 157% increase between the highs and lows during the cycle. Between Apri 14th, when the first episode was aired, BTC price was in the range of 5040 and between the 2 episodes, the price has already fluctuated to 5623 which is an increase of ~11% already during this season.
The percentage increase during each season from 2014 is detailed below,
63% - 2014 (Season 4)
15% - 2015 (Season 5)
78% - 2016 (Season 6)
157% - 2017 (Season 7)
11%* - 2019 (Season 8)
Call it strange coincidence, but when BTC was down from the all time highs last year, there was no Game of Thrones season, that would have probably broken the pattern. So looking at this trend, we can hope that we see a fairly bullish market during this Season of Game of Thrones as well. Even though this analysis may seem strange, but its nevertheless an interesting correlation. Valar Dohaeris!
PS: The author of this article doesn't advocate buying and selling based on such indicators and this is purely intended only for data correlation purpose. Readers are advised to do their own analysis before investing money.
Too Much Bitcoin Euphoria?Traders who have already been burnt and learnt the experience know not to get too much carried away by the general euphoria in the market especially when its a bit too much. Agreed that BTC has started a bullish trend and the sentiment is quite positive everywhere, but this is where we have to be careful. Now seeing the price action where BTC jumped 1000 points in a day, even though its not unusual, but all such rallies are always followed by eventual market corrections.
So lets look at the technical outlook of BTC, at the time of writing this the price has bounced from the lows of 6800 and has recovered to 7100 which still means that the investors are still lapping on to Bitcoin. The RSI Indicator is clearly in the overbought zone but this is not new to Bitcoin as historically we have had such scenarios. The MACD chart gives a bit more idea that the momentum is waning and there is a probability that Bitcoin might try to break the 7400 resistance level tomorrow before it starts of with a correction.
So the trade call would still be to partially book profits and then see if there is a new high that is being tested tomorrow where you can book some more profit.
Please note that the trade calls are the authors opinions based on technical analysis and hence readers are requested to do their own in depth study before investing.
BTC FA vs TA who is strongerFrom TA point of view we need correction but fundamentals are really strong. They can push price much more higher! social media definitely can help it.
"Fidelity Investments’ new cryptocurrency company will offer trading for institutional customers in a few weeks, Bloomberg reported Monday MAY 6
Betting that the cryptocurrency bear market will turn around, Fidelity created its cryptocurrency platform Fidelity Digital Assets in October. The new company began a custody service to securely store bitcoin for its customers in March, CNBC reported. Now, it will be letting customers buy and sell the cryptocurrency in the upcoming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
Fidelity, a roughly 72-year-old family controlled firm, is primarily known for managing retirement plans and mutual funds. But it also spends $2.5 billion per year on technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain.
Forty-seven percent of institutional investors think digital assets are worth investing in, according to a survey released by Fidelity on May 2.
Further, of the 450 institutions interviewed by Fidelity for research for its new company, everyone from wealthy families to hedge funds to pensions, 22% of respondents already owned a cryptocurrency." CNBC
Epic short opportunity? 1.618 Fibo extension is key!Sometimes we need to see things in a new format to feel it from a different perspective. As much I research about Bitcoin being bottomed out in December 2018, much arguments I find that tells me that I have to be careful. So, this is not a FUD or pessimistic post, this is just information to be shared with you guys, so any of you together with your personal research can take the decision they consider is better for his investment strategy. The Fibonacci extensions circles, show us in a easy to understand way how the price reacted to Fibo levels.
Being all this said, let´s have a look again at what the 3 biggest Bitcoin corrections ever:
Firs crash, June to November 2011: -93%
From June to November 2011, Bitcoin dropped from a ATH of $29 and almost 1 month after if crossed the 1.618 Fibo extension, they were playing around with the price to finally bottomed out at $2. The biggest catalyst for this crash in my opinion was the hacking of Mt.Gox (I lost 0.45 BTC that time because of them), being the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time. This is the official legend "the exchange was compromised by a hacker who gained access to customer accounts and artificially pushed the price of Bitcoin on the exchange to $0.01".
December 2013 – January 2015: - 84.6%
In October of 2013, Bitcoin started a sick rally, and surpassed the previously established all-time high of $260 in November. Bitcoin showed no signs of stopping and broke the $1,000 psychological milestone in the same month, eventually peaking at about $1,150 on December 4. I remember perfectly that time when Gold was at 1200 and Bitcoin went to 1150. I converted $200 into $600, I was more than happy lol.
The trend changed in December 2013, and from April/May 2014 Bitcoin back to life again, but exactly at the 1.618 Fibo extension, the price started again to fall.
On February 10, Mt.Gox announced that it was halting all Bitcoin withdrawals from the platform due to “transaction malleability”, which Mt.Gox alleged was caused by a bug in the Bitcoin software (who in the world believe that amount of BS). While other exchanges resumed operation, Mt.Gox was still down, prompting speculation on whether the exchange was insolvent. Although there was a rally that started in May of 2014 which saw Bitcoin grow from about $440 to around $650, the second half of 2015 was decisively negative and BTC bottomed out at around $177 in January 2015. It took Bitcoin until April of 2017 to surpass its previous $1,150 all-time high.
December 2017 – unknown: -81.8%
2017 brought the new era, a fundamental change to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and Bitcoin’s iron grip on the cryptocurrency market began to slip. At the start of the year, BTC dominance was at roughly 85%. In March, however, BTC dominance started to decline drastically as Ethereum ETH began taking significant chunks out of Bitcoin’s market share.
Bitcoin reached its current all-time high of just below $20,000 in December 17th of 2017. After that and exactly at the same Fibo position than the past crash in 2013 within 1 and 1.618 extension, Bitcoin started to decline heavily and the cryptocurrency market entered a strong bear market and prices were declining for the majority of the year. This time, there was no real catastrophic event that triggered the downturn, I personally remember 2018 as a year full of good news, top tech people getting involved. Banks, institutions and governments stopped talking shit about cryptos but the market just stopped in last December, leaving a $1600 ETH in $85, a gorgeous LTC from 360 to $22, and our beloved Bitcoin from ATH at $20k to 3.2k.
If you think that the corrections are getting smaller every time, you are in a mistake. I named the 3 biggest corrections in Bitcoin, have a look at the 5 biggest corrections.
June to November 2011: -93%
August 2012: - 56.7%
April 2013: - 73.3%
December 2013 – January 2015: - 84.6%
December 2017 – unknown: -81.8%
As we did in 2014, we are having what it could be the beginning of the new bull era and as a trend trader, if the opportunity is being long, I´ll be there. As you can see in my last post, I have my ideas quite clear and I saw this pump coming, as well as I´m seeing the next correction coming just in a few days, so no long operations during the next weeks. Is Fibo 1.618 a key level to watch? Definitely.
Once again thanks for watching and join us at our Telegram channel, I´m are sending daily signals and updates on Bitcoin an Cryptos. Don´t forget to like and follow if you appreciate this :)
Bitcoin Network Momentum (BNM) and Halving Cycle ProjectionsBitcoin Network Momentum (BNM) and Halving Cycle Projections
Intro
To do your own analysis/follow along, the script is in public library and can be found here . Briefly - BNM is a view created by PositiveCrypto which looks into the value transmitted through the Bitcoin blockchain denominated in BTC value plotted against Bitcoin's price. It serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin bull markets. Sufficiently high levels of value throughput is needed drive bull markets.
Description
Here we can see some correlations in market cycle timing and structure. Of course the question currently, is do we have the needed momentum yet to kick off another bull cycle? I think we will likely be in this range for some time to come. But BNM seems to agree that the bottom is in. I believe there will be rejection soon and another buying opportunity in the 4.4k to 4.9k range.
Ideas
Bull > Bear > Transition cycles. I used the previous cycles to project the next bullrun cycle with price targets.
Abbreviated length
I stupidly typed this up in the publish window instead of my word processor. My computer rebooted and I lost approximately 2k words I had further written. I will not be reconstructing in unfortunately as I have more pressing things to work on. You will have to draw your own conclusions!
BTC Price Moving in the Predicted DirectionBelow was the last prediction done in the previous article
Next predictions : Bitcoin might now try to breach the 5900 in the next ten days and might again fall back to 5400 before moving ahead. It might take another cycle before BTC price tries to breach the crucial 6400 path. Link to the Analysis
Now the line that was drawn on 29th April where the prediction was said that BTC movement will probably reach around the range of 5900 seems to be inline with the prediction. So far there has not been a big breakout of the prices, there might be another dull day before the price of BTC makes a considerable movement to the target. This analysis is based on the previous cycles which have normally taken the same amount of time.
So let's see how the price follows the prediction, the prediction will be invalidated if the price drops considerably below the marked upward line.
Please note that the trade calls are the authors opinions based on technical analysis and hence readers are requested to do their own in depth study before investing.
Bitcoin - simple ideaHi, my first ever publised idea, hope you guys like it...This chart looks simple to me, dropping to g-cross and to the strong fib level at one time,
comment with your ideas.
Targon
Everybody says short. I say long and put a tight stop lossBitcoin is still in the triangle. Best profit/loss ratio for long. This is the bullish scenario. If it breaks from the triangle next stop is around 3300.
I expect BINANCE:BTCUSDT to stay in the triangle at least for 3-4 more days.
BTCUSD - Lower high after lower high - Really to the moon???Last time i expected "...an additional move to the area of 4.260/4.330$" but we stopped at 4.230$ and broke down to the current level of 3.620$. Are still sure that we are goin to the moon??? I don´t want so sit in this rocket.
We didn´t create a higher high and the only conclusion is that we are still in a bearish trend. I see a high probability bitcoin will test the december lows. That will be very interesting because the "200 weekly moving average" is in this area and it is very important that we have a weekly close above that line. If we break this level we have to look for the next resistances
For the next few days i expect a bounce near the december lows.
Don´t get me wrong, i am a supporter of bitcoin but there is no reason to buy at the moment, it is just speculation.
BTCUSD Bitcoin - Shortterm bullmode - I am still bearishAt first i will clarify that i am a believer in bitcoin. I don´t think bitcoin will die or anything people outside say about it.
In my opinion bitcoin is still in a bearish trend and we see a bullish reaction of the last days/weeks. All the way down we saw this and i think it is just the same. This bullish reaction is limited to the price area of 4.5/4.6k. I expect a range mode for a few days (maybe weeks) between 4k and 3.1k and then a strong and brutal bearish move to new yearly lows.
This isn´t an investment advice, i just wanna publish and share my thoughts about bitcoin.
Bitcoin long term wave extrapolation Let's assume we have a mirrored wave pattern to the previous two large impulse waves on the long term, and we have this fun chart, 12k btc in April 2020 and 180k bitcoin in January 2021. This chart is fun.
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is not the one!
But Long-Squeeze is not what we are here for.
Just as we didn't come for Short-Squeeze in 2017, eh?
BTC - Possible Future Price Action?Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! Are you still out there? Of course, you are, you are not going to let a 40% to 50% dump in the price of cryptos scare you off! Having survived this bear market will only serve to make you stronger in the future.
I am once again going out on a limb here to speculate about the possible future price action for Bitcoin. The last couple of weeks have been pretty rough with Bitcoin finally breaking through the 2018 low of $5755 (Bitfinex). Not only did it break the 2018 low Bitcoin also blew right through $5000 with relative ease and then eventually the $4000 level failed also.
So, I feel that the old support zone was so strong and held for so long that I believe Bitcoin at some point in the near future will rise up and re-test that zone which now will act as resistance. I see this zone as running from the old 2018 low of $5755 up to about the $6400 level. My personal feeling is that this re-test will fail and the price of Bitcoin will once again fall into the $3000 to $4000 level.
Having broken the 2018 low which held for so long I now feel that this will extend the bear market for many more months, possibly through the end of next year. Obviously, at some point, Bitcoin will find an ultimate bottom but how much lower will that be? I think that it is very possible that Bitcoin eventually could re-test the 2013 high of $1175. Having said all of that I want to reiterate that I still remain very bullish on cryptocurrencies long-term, we just have to withstand this bear market to see the rewards of the next bull market. I wish that was not the case and who knows I could be totally wrong and believe me nothing would make me happier but being realistic I feel that we have to be ready for more pain before things get ready. If we do indeed have many months to go before the next bull market, one positive aspect will be that it will give us plenty of time to accumulate our favorite cryptos or additional time to save up fiat to buy our favorite cryptos.
Bitcoin - Low Volatility and ConsolidationHello fellow crypto enthusiasts! I wish I could tell you exactly what BTC is going to do in the days and weeks to come but sadly I can't. One thing that is apparent is how much the volatility has dropped. Since setting a low of $6119.50 (Bitfinex price) BTC has been in a slight uptrend. Zooming out to a long term view, compared to the wild swings we were seeing in the past BTC looks to almost looks to have flat lined.
I can't say for sure that BTC has bottomed although it does feel like it has to me. I will go out on a limb here and say that I believe BTC is now in a consolidation phase and has been since it set the low on June 24th.
As I said I am not sure what BTC will do from here but my feeling is that we could stay in the consolidation phase for a while yet, trading in a range from around $6000 up to 7500 or even $8000. Looking at the daily chart right now there are a couple things that I like. I like how the lower trend line is still being respected (at least so far) and I like how the 100 SMA has started to curve upward slightly toward the 200 SMA that is still trending downward. The spread between them is the closest since they crossed back on April 15th. As long as the bottom does not fall out, they should continue to creep closer to each other. At that point a nice sustained push higher by BTC could potentially get the 100 SMA back above the 200 SMA which would be very bullish. In my opinion besides BTC breaking out above the long-term downtrend trend line, getting back above and staying above the daily 200 SMA is a critical milestone that BTC has to accomplish before the next bull market can begin. I feel like the days and weeks ahead are going to be a very critical time for BTC and although I feel pretty confident that BTC has bottomed I also realize that anything is possible and as such BTC could still at some point take out the 2018 low and head much lower.
Bitcoin finishing a symmetrical triangle.After a boring weekend full of bots with a very low real volume the price continue inside of a symmetrical triangle which regardless the SEC decision, looks quite ugly.
The announcement whether they delay or denny the current ETF´s, have to be released in a period of 24-48 hours maximum, and the deadline for the price leaving the triangle is depending on that decision. In my opinion we won´t see an ETF approved until end of December or May-June next year. But if we are extremely lucky and the SEC comes with positive news, leaving the triangle with such power, could most probably anticipate the end of the bearish season, and the beginning of a new era for the crypto space.
However and despite the good news we can hear everyday about the adoption of Bitcoin and blockchains technologies, there is much more involve. First of all the technical prevails before the fundamental, and a symmetrical triangle in a bearish trend use to have a very bad end. Secondly, chances that the SEC comes with an open mind regarding the new licenses for the ETF´s just now, are small.
Being perms-bull like many others here helps the whales to liquidate longs, to have more followers here on Trading View and to give hope for holders. But hope is not a good indicator for this business, just a realistic technical analysis based on solid arguments can help us to understand what is going on behind the scenes, and what have the best chances of becoming real.
With all this being said, I´m seeing the bulls pushing the price up to around 6700, and a probably hard short back to the base of the triangle around 6330 with a high probability of breaking down the triangle looking the last yearly low at 5.8k, but that´s depend pretty much on the SEC decision.
My vision continue being close to the bears, however having some approves from the SEC and breaking out around $7500, will change my mind for sure.
BTCUSD Yearly Descending TriangleSo i have been keeping an eye out for this yearly descending triangle and waiting for the right postion. I see that we have some higher lows formed but i have not been sold on the highs yet if they have played out the full move or not. I feel at this point it made its move up and we will maybe retest again somewhere near the recent high but im looking to get in a short if that happens. Lets keep an eye out for now and see.
If there are any coins or patterns/indicators anyone would like me to check out please let me know! Im still trying to learn all the tools for making the charting pretty for everyone. "Long way togo"
Enjoy your weekend talk with you all soon!
Expectations on BTC Bull FlagUpdating my targets to look for.... Could be a good time for some of those altcoins...?
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NO MATTER THE TIMING OF YOUR CHART:
15min - RSI / Stock RSI
30min - RSI / Stock RSI
1h - RSI / Stock RSI
4h - Stock RSI
It looks like a Bull Flag is definetely happening!
& all longs seem to be concentrated on XRP...
Next Bitcoin high & dropFor my first (ever) idea I draw dotted lines from the previous tops. As some thought the last top was a bit early, I estimated a next drop to come early again. (Light gray vs red dots to give the dark dotted line).
I used the ribbon (4h) with the RSI to consider this reversal. Checking the last time price got through the ribbon (green ray), I draw the last uptrend (purple line) which is surely my weakest point... Then cloned to estimate the next move.
I'm considering the next top being between the red dotted line and the dark gray one. I expect the RSI to confirm by a divergence as seen on the 2 lastest reversals.
I'm currently looking at those indicators:
-RSI
-Ribbon
-Bollinger
-Supertrend
-TD sequential
If anyone has other indicators to advise it would be very apreciated. I'm really just starting so be gentle in your comments, my idea may be totally idiotic who knows ^^
