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BTC Playing In The Sand No More? Well folks, it seems the inevitable has finally happened. With BTC's momentum shifting from Bearish to Bullish, we're likely to see higher highs and also higher lows going forward. I'll try to keep this one short. You may remember in my previous analysis I was still leaning a little more Bearish, but simply because we did not have any distinct evidence that a turn to the upside had happened YET. I emphasise YET, because I think we all knew that a shift upwards was on the cards, but when it comes to picking tops and bottoms, it's always 50/50. However, as mentioned, it seems BTC's momentum has now shifted upwards again, with the last close on the 4 hour chart slightly higher than the previous one. Now - what to look for? Pretty obvious right? Buy the dips, sell the highs, and repeat. Or, buy a dip and HODL if you want a long term position. On the 4 hour Chart you'll see BTC may already have formed a new support trendline upwards ( Line #1 ) and also a possible - (emphasize POSSIBLE) - upper resistance trendline ( Line #2 ). So my strategy would obviously be to buy on the dips, once you see the price bounce back up from a significant enough support level. There also seems to be a less significant support AND resistance line running along inside that upper trend channel between Lines #1 and #2 - I've marked it line #3. Hopefully that may give you just that extra little bit of insight into what we may expect within the current uptrend channel, which we can now see already started forming in early February. What's that saying again? - Hindsight always provides you with 20/20 vision. So that's it for now, I'm not going to call out any specific price levels here, but I'm sure the chart analysis would give you plenty of info. Once again, this is not investment advice - just a summary of my own technical analysis. You should always do your own research and trade carefully at your own risk. Happy weekend and happy trading everybody!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Jaco-Snyman
Bitcoin uptrend price forecast 11700 SELL and rebuy on RETRACTWhen talking about Bitcoin movement, its very important to state that we needed to determinate in which direction market is moving in order to make decision of potential investing or rebuying at the dips. Breaching 9,9 level was considered breaking of an upper trendline. When talking about retracement, if Bitcoin breached 8400-8800 level with tendency toward 7850 it would be considered as downtrend state. Now, Bitcoin looks pretty solid. BTC started bull run from 8800 ending up at 11.700 in first cycle, but price dragged to 11,700, without healthy consolidation, therefore we needed to thread it carefull, beucase of sudden dips which occured two times before 11.700. After consolidation, healthy fractal retracment, Bitcoin while retracing made tripple bottom (bullish sign) and we had technical rebounce from 9.400 value toward 11.7. During that sharp uptrend, Btc pierced easily 10.1 resistance and continued with healthy price consolidations. After consolidation, Bitcoin breached 10,5 level and started rebouncing between 10.500 and 10800 levels. Then, tried to breach 10800 level, reached price 10850 (false positive brakeout) and returned to channel (10.500-10800). In second attempt, it breached 11,1 and instantly retraced to 10.500-10800 level. Bitcoin has strenght for further upward moment, as trying to breach 11,1 and stay above 11.000 level which will enable further uptrend to 11,500-11.700 level. (maybe even 12). When talking about support levels and smart money, 10500 level was opressed heavily few times in a row and so far handled very good with a pressure successfuly regaining value even compensating last dip which pierced 10500 level, ending at 10350, but price was instantly recovered and Bitcoin movement is still above 10500 level, which is certanly one more sign of healthy support on 10,500, beucase by scenario, we should have strong rebounce from 10500 in order to pierce 11.000 level and possibly stay they preparing for next uptrend heading toward 11.700. One more thing. I'm not absolutely either bearish or bullish. We needed clear confirmation in this very unclear enviroment in order to make decision. That's why we joined after apparent technical rebounce. We are trying to adapt on market, using stop/loss as a precaution. This is not financial advice, therefore it can not be used like that. In order to support further analysis and of course If you find this information useful, or any other analysis before, please consider sending up donation : BTC address 1EeTCYPx7SG42jjttTgV7MESvHZPoqixz9 ETH address 0x746d3cdb0b30c0d78b26ddc7d9b7d6581be7d5de LTC adress LMCUJxZhPCKwyCEN65ugfAsqonXFgKrXSF Thank you in advance Good luck
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by milanjelic
16
"BTC/USD" Some possible scenariosAfter the 20000 usd run and the 70% retracement (6000 usd), btc rose to 12000 usd and retraced again. Is the retracement finished? Well, now we have different scenarios: 1) correction isn't finished, so the price could drop to the red rectangle (8500-8000 usd). Look at the RSI. If price drops to the red rectangle, rsi will drop to the red circlo-->oversold and could start a bull run. The price will reach the same level of the green rectangle or can raise up to the big resistance (big red rectangle). This is an important level. To see a bullish trend, btc has to break the red rectangle and the downtrend line (yellow dashed line). 2) btc could reach 11000-11200 usd, the drop to the 0.382 level of Fibonacci, or drop to the red rectangle= level 0.618 of Fibonacci. After the correction, will pump and will try to break the yellow dashed line. (BLUE ABC) 3) Btc will break the yellow dashed line and will retest the big resistance (big red rectangle). After this i expect a retracement to the green rectangle and then we will see a bull run. (GREEN ABC). In the chart I see some patterns and figures. It's hard to say what btc will do in the next hours, you have to watch volumes, rsi and other stuffs. Keep your eyes on rsi: if price drops and rsi drops to the red circle, would be a good opportunity to buy. I see a round bottom and a cup&handle in formation. These are bullish figures. Most important things: btc has to break the downtrend line (yellow dashed line) and has to break the big red rectangle: it's an huge resistance; if btc won't break it with huge volume, the price will drop again.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ale111
BTC - Nice Bounce but What's Next?Well, unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball so I can only say what I feel may happen over the next few weeks. I have to say that I was somewhat impressed with the bounce that BTC made from the low of $6000 to almost doubling within two weeks. I find it kind of interesting that the price made almost a 100% retracement to where it was on Jan. 28th when the breakdown first occurred before reversing. As you can see in the chart below, for about the last 36 hrs. the price has been holding just below the 38.2% Fib retracement level however I don't believe this level to hold much longer and I expect the price to drop down to the 50% retracement level where there looks to be good support. It is also possible that the price could continue falling past 50% down to the 61.8% level which is just above $8000. If $8000 is breached I would then expect a re-test of the $6000 low possibly creating a double bottom situation if it holds or if it doesn't dropping to new lows, which could be $5000 or lower.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
5
Bitcoin regression after pump and potential break of upper trendI will write an opinion adiditonally regarding this situation. My opinion is that traders are aware of retracement (long expected, prolonged, but inevitable). No matter how long price is being pushed, it certanly cost money to maintain it. Traders, someone is waiting for you to " join and participate in rebounce". Be careful about one thing: Don't drive this "suckers rally" too long, othewise, you will certanly end up trapped. We are still berish. Bearish with reason, not because "we decided to be because it's fits with our plans and wishful thinking" Since price is being pushed and " placed" to 8800, that would be rebuy and possible lowest rebuy would be at 8400. With "smart money" and fresh investments, we could expect third attempt of breaking 11250 trendline (as previously failed to breach two times). Honestly spoken, we had on previous movement triple top (bearish sign), but, since wall is easily spoofed in 4th attempt of breaking, i do belive that after rebounce and REAL MONEY that third attempt of breaking be succesfull. Or maybe the next one, but we should have rebounce if we "experience price reversal" having in mind that on 4h price chart we already had strong bullish divergence and nothing happened (speaking of breaking upper trendline) which ended up failing. Speaking about altcoins, they will be affected as well. If this analysis works fine, whole market will retrace for 20%.
by milanjelic
5
Bitcoin BTC USD Forecast - Where is it heading?What we're looking at since 6 February is BTC making gradual bullish waves. On that day BTC started it's upward movement (2nd part of the Head) through the first sign of reversal i.e. Inverted Head & Shoulders. Now we are here trying to break $10,000. As you can also see ALTS are not making much progress. Some are but the majority aren't. This is mainly because of fear. Fear that BTC will drop. Although many predicted a drop in BTC, they did so following $9,500 testing. So this fear has cautioned investors that this is the moment BTC starts going rogue. A parallel channel has been drawn from highest point to the next significant lower high and below the lower lows cutting through noise mainly caused by excess FUD. A trend line is drawn from recent lower highs which cut through the $9,000 resistance level which is now support. Hence it's safe to say that if BTC cracks $9,000 support it could result in a free fall and would need to re-establish bottom. Parallel channel cut through our fib retracement at $11,300. When I say cut it means the one which makes sense the most. $9,000 (0.786 fib) was our support and the target price is at $11,300 (0.618 fib). This price target will help BTC keep above $10,000 and confirm the Inverted Head & Shoulder reversal pattern and see bullish days ahead. However investors like to camp (buy or sell) on "imaginary" resistance/support levels i.e. $10,000 / $11,000. This creates multiple resistance levels before our $11,300 target. BTC made one hell of a run and RSI stands at 72 on 4 hour chart meaning that it's currently overbought. I'd rather BTC makes gradual gains rather than spikes out of nowhere because spikes do not reflect true value and are usually followed by corrections. Hence if BTC has any hope of staying up, slow and steady is the way forward.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by itradearn
1
BTC/USD BITCOIN FEBEBRUARY 18TH UPDATEWe have compleated 5 sub-wave structure and finished 3rd wave. Everything going just as i tought, after finishing 3rd wave we will retrace to/around fibonacci 38.2% lavels and i will lot for entry in green box $10150-9975 for last wave 5. My first target for wave 5 is located just below fibonacci -23.6% and second below fibonacci -61.8%, however i think that we will see huge wall at $12000 and i just dont see passing that number and geting to second target. After completing 5 wave structure we will see A-B-C retracement (small downtrend), will update levels once i know exacly where 5th wave ends. it will be VERY important to stay (after ABC retracement) above peak of first wave ($9081) to ramain bullish, if it fails we will test main support around $6500 again. Good luck all !!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1091557
BTC - Bullish SignalsI have been somewhat skeptical of the recovery we have been witnessing from Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole but I am now seeing some signs that make me wonder if I have been a little too skeptical. Looking at the Bitfinex price chart on the hourly time frame it looks to me as if BTC is in the process of completing an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Time will tell if this is truly as bullish of a sign as it appears, also we will see if BTC can break above the neckline and continue the uptrend or if it will fail and head lower. Another bullish sign that I see is on the weekly time frame, to me, it looks like a morning star reversal pattern. Typically with other morning star reversal patterns, I have seen on stocks, there will be a gap down on the "star" day and sometimes also a gap up on the bullish candle (3rd candle of the pattern) but because the crypto markets never close gaps rarely if ever happen. I realize this might not fit the textbook definition but it looks pretty good to me. I also realize that this week has a way to go before the candle will close so although it looks pretty good right now, if BTC fails to keep pushing higher here and heads lower the pattern would change dramatically. I will be watching the progression of both patterns to see if they really are as bullish a sign as they appear to be right now. DEFINITION of 'Morning Star' A morning star is a bullish candlestick pattern that consists of three candles. The first bar is a large black (bearish) candlestick located within a defined downtrend, the second bar is a small-bodied candle (either black or white) that closes below the first black bar, and the last bar is a large white candle that opens above the middle candle and closes near the center of the first bar's body. 1) The longer the black candle and the white candle, the more forceful the reversal. This demonstrates a more severe change in investor sentiment. 2) The more indecision that the star day illustrates, the better probabilities that a reversal will occur, such as a Doji signal. 3) A gap between the first day and the second day adds to the probability that a reversal is occurring. A gap before and after the star day is even more desirable. 4) The higher the close of the third day, coming up past the middle point of the black candle of the first day, reveals more potential in the strength of the reversal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
3
My thoughts on BTCOkay, so was that it? Was the low set on Feb. 6th the bottom? I wish I could tell you with definite certainty yes or no. Unfortunately, as I have said before no one really knows for sure. Since BTC set the low of $6000 on Feb. 6th it has bounced to a high of just under $9075. But what worries me is that BTC came down with such speed and momentum that I have to wonder if this recovery is nothing more than just a dead cat bounce, It is possible that BTC could roll over here and head back down to retest the low. If it does retest the low, the low holds and BTC starts moving higher again forming a double bottom that in my opinion would signal the bottom. On the other hand, if BTC rolls over and the Feb. 6th low does not hold I would see that as a very bearish signal, telling us that we have not yet found the bottom. On the other hand maybe the low of Feb. 6th was bottom and BTC continues to move higher from here.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin next moves and price levels-HIGH VALUED/UNDERESTIMATEDBitcoin is still rebouncing in a channel (7800-8400), it could stay there for a couple a few days, but when breaks trendline market will be pulled downwards with 40-45% price drop which might cause panic sell and lower the price (5800 level even deeper). Everything with Bitcoin would maybe look fine (if we deny fact that sinked already from 19.000 level to 12.000 level, some rebouncing, dropped to 10.000 level and continued to go with downward pattern all the way down to the price 6.000 level making him lose 70% of it's ATH value. Then rebounce to 8,500 level. So, what now? People are talking that this correction is finished, but it seems they are actually confused in general, because EVERYONE WAS BULLISH TILL WEEK or TWO and now suddenly EVERYONE IS BEARISH. How come? What that means? That means that people who are trying to predict either Bitcoin movement or some other altcoin movement (which 100% depends on Bitcoin) DON'T UNDERSTAND movement in general, because whenever some big green candle appears in downtrend they state " correction is finished" " Bitcoin to the moon" etc. They would not be changing their minds or statements in the matter of day or week if they would be able to see bigger picture. This is bussines enviroment and in situations like this you better don't take advices from a guy who had C- from STOCKS :). No matter people don't understand stock exchange, they can see if they portfolio increased or did not in past few weeks. I belive drasticaly decreased. That happends because when people are uncertain, they take advice from someone who stands out as "high reputated" or "expert" in order to make decision in their name. And fails few times in a row, losing for example 50.000$ money. What i m trying to say is don't bait stories about some big rebounce, some non realistic prices, because that WON'T HAPPEND ANYTIME SOON. Bitcoin needs to SINK and SINK ONLY in order to restore confidence on some price levels. Even that this Bitcoin apparently seems stable, (doesn't sink suddenly as it did for a few times so far which results pulling entire market down) but in general doesn't seem reliable at all. Bitcoin may remain on this price level for a few more days , but, trendline will be "tighter" which will lead to to break trendline. When that happends, it will go all the way down to 5.800 level (there is a posibility that it drops even deeper), but we should see how strong 5800 level of support "reacts" in a situation of sudden dips as we could see few days ago (dip to 6000 level and rebounce to 8500 level). Conclusion : -Don't buy stories about bullish Bitcoin -Price will go to 5800 level (maybe even 5400 level, then 7500 level, then will bleed out all the way down to 3000 level -Rebuy either on 5400 level, buy high volatile coin (XRP,XLM), when price reach 7500 level, cashout and wait for future dips -If not doing so, most probably people will lose some percentage of their portfolio, because if they get caught in downtrend, if not cashing out, traders might lose around 40% of their portfolio. -Don't let you self sink with Bitcoin, cashout on time, rebuy on next dip, liquidate (cashout) after rebounce, and wait -So far this Bitcoin doesn't let altcoins to grow, but even if it remains calm, it may happend that altcoin could be " cut off" on half on uptrend which depend only if Bitcoin will decrese fluctuation and apparently acts stable). -It's a deceptive situation, this Bitcoin movement, don't let your self to sink with Bitcoin (or any other altcoin) -Cashout before dips occur
by milanjelic
56
Warning-unsustainable price of Bitcoin-drop below 5.000 $Regardless it rebounced from 6.000 level and regained 2500 in value, Bitcoin showed many sign of weakness so far, on the first place after rebouncing from 9300 back to 11,700 none of the candles weren't closed near that price (prices were closed at 11.000 level, that means he can not pressure that price range trying to form his price on higher level, because, on the first place, things were downtrending back then while rebouncing in a chanel (9300-11700) as they are now. When Bitcoin needed to show strenght and confidence (in a scenario of healthy rebounce from 8200 level that did not happend, it just continued to drop further IGNORING 8000 level and going easy to 6000 level which is one more sign of serious weaknes at this point, therefore, my opinion is that Bitcoin will continue to drop further even below 5000 level. Do not be suprised if you see price of Bitcoin around 3000 level (let's say) 10 days from now (we are just speculating, it's my personal opinion). Anyway, having in mind that Bitcoin is worth over 8000 now, common sense says that this main support (8200 level) could possibly "hold" above this value for a couple more days (while rebouncing over 8000 level). If manages to handle so, Bitcoin will "let" your altcoin to grow stronger over Bitcoin (if remains stable on 8000 level), but you should remember that 8200 level has been TESTED and FAILED TO HOLD in the moments when Bitcoin had downtrend to all the way down to 6000 level. Considering it was healthy rebounce, it may hold on there levels for a couple of more days, but it will certanly continue to drop further. Think about buyback around 3000 level, not now, don't let your self sink with Bitcoin 4th time in a row. This could possibly be the good timing for altcoins as stated earlier, but this Bitcoin is "unhealthy" and it could drop any time soon (we are speculating, but it doesn't seems reliable at all) as we speak.
Short
by milanjelic
35
The BTC (Crypto) Bear MarketBitcoin and the crypto market as a whole have been in a bear market ever since the Dec. 17th high. How long will it last? Where is the bottom? The truth is no one knows for sure, all we can do is look at the charts and to be honest come up with an educated guess. IMO I don't think we have bottomed yet, I would not be surprised if BTC made a 100% Fib retracement and retested the low set on Nov. 12th. As we have seen so far, where BTC goes so goes the rest of the market so IMO it will be a while (weeks/months) before we see an end to this bear market. Long term (years) I remain very bullish on the whole crypto market, IMO what we are experiencing right now is a very healthy thing for the long-term sustainability of the cryptocurrency markets. I am sure that many of the critics who have called cryptocurrencies a fraud, Ponzi scheme or said they are just a bubble like tulip mania which will eventually pop are celebrating this price correction. As I stated in the blog post below, these individuals are using the bubble label too loosely, most likely in an attempt to discredit the cryptocurrency markets. IMO a true bubble is driven by nothing but hype, the asset really has zero value and when they pop there is no recovery, its lights out - end of story. Just looking at Bitcoin alone we have seen numerous times where the price has run up to (at the time) extreme levels only to experience severe pullbacks. In every one of these instances if you had bought after the pullback you would have done very well, this just does not happen with true bubbles. Hell, if you had bought at the top of any one of these "bubbles" you also would have done very well, again that wouldn't happen if it was really a bubble! When all is said and done I believe the same will be true of this price pullback, at some point it will be a great buying opportunity. So no matter how bad things seem right now IMO this is a time to be creating your shopping list because this very well may be the sale of the century. saveandinvestforyourfuture901.blogspot.ca
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto