BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
Bitcoinshort
BTC MUST TO GO DOWNBased on my latest analysis using the Ichimoku system, I highlighted the levels that #BTC left behind without touching them. As a typical correction after forming a valid high, and seeing a red komu, BTC will see a correction up to 0.618 of the previous downtrend wave, and probably a hunt, and then continue its own way to $35k or finally hunting FWB:27K -$30k
BITCOIN Bearish Wyckoff Distribution 🚨 Supply in ControlWhales have been manipulating Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic since 12/5/23 (before the GBTC and FTX sell off.)
Currently:
🚨 Bitcoin dropped below bottom of Trading Range to create a Sign of Weakness in Phase D.
🚨 Bitcoin flipped the bottom of the Trading Range at $40,150 to resistance and created its final Last Point of Supply for shorts to enter.
🚨 With the CME Gap Fill, GBTC and FTX sell offs, Bitcoin is soon entering Phase E: Supply in Control where everyone realizes there is little chance of a bounce and everyone panic sells.
BTC Update - 25.01.2024 / Short setup4 hour chart:
I am observing the complete nucleation of a downside oof through liquidity withdrawal, rebalancing into FVG zones and internal liquidity withdrawal!
POIs from which to consider continuing shorts on bitokin:
1. From current (High risk but technical factors are all respected, there is rebalancing into 0.5 moves and daily imbalance with ind withdrawal)
2- Imbalance (43927.7 - 45460.2): More justified entry, but not completely sure if price is rebalancing into this POI.
From targets all compression from the lows (37468 - 33224) and monthly FVG as FTA (34076 - 27480)
Still observing patterns to enter, local accumulation phase in the market today!
❗️ Not financial advice, always think with your head
BTCUSD - DAILY SHORT STRUCTURE (TARGET 34K)8 Step Analysis:
1) Price broke out of its bullish continuation structure and pursued its rally onwards.
2) A range was formed following the breakout which accentuated the anticipation of the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by the SEC.
3) This anticipation was shown by leveraged longs that increased open interest through the roof obviously giving a lot of liquidating manipulation opportunities to market makers. You can see this with the multiple false breaks, liquidity grabs, resistance retests, etc (whatever you want to call it, it's all the same thing)…
4) Price retraced back into the range after breaking buyside which is crucial info. I think whales are already in their comfortable shorting pants ready to watch retail scatter in confusion. 'Why would BTC crash?! The ETF was approved!!!' Well they control the narrative and therefore what you think (except if you are one of the rare few in the crypto sphere with a sense of critical thinking).
5) One last bounce higher to build back hopes one last time just to liquidate more longs on the painful way down (or pleasureful way down if you also put on your comfortable shorting pants).
6) The descent should have started (at this point this may be far fetched to try and predict days or weeks in advance but let's try) and sellside should be taken out.
7) The last piece of liquidity I am interested in is below the (1) breakout structure (I refuse to call it a triangle lol). This to me really represents a juicy price to actually start building a serious swing position.
8) The trend continuation.
BTC is going to see 36K as the first target!Hi dear traders,
As we said in our last analysis on BTC, There is a need to correction for Bitcoin and this price falling is natural.
Everything is explained in the video, See my previous analysis on the BTC too, It helps you to understand current market situation.
Be free to ask your questions in the comments, Best regards, Zargar.
BTC zone for short positions?Hi friends, are you shorting?
Is it the right time or do we need to wait, the weekly looks good, the trend is strong, anyway the MFI is still low, the RSI MA is also low, isn't it more necessary to wait for a retest around 47500-48000?
Let us know your thoughts on when is the best time to short
ETH & BTC - OMG WHAT IS HAPPENING?! (CROSS ANALYSIS)Don't panic, this was expected. It's not the end of crypto, it's just a healthy correction that we need once and a while to justify a rally in the future. Price cannot always go up even though we wish it was that easy.
What is on the charts? (3 steps)
1) The consolidation that had us wonder what was going to happen. (Again we forget that there is also option trading amongst other things with Bitcoin and time plays a big role. In fact, time is so important that if you can control when price will drop just by being a big player, you can put everyone out of the money right at contract expiry. One of the many ways whales will f*** you. How do I know? I don't. But if I had the ability to move markets I'd do just that.)
2) Bearish structure that could have been a short entry but obviously I prefer a double confirmation. Double confirmations just put probabilities on our side. When money is on the table, you either gamble or play the probabilities game. That's what we're doing here: trading not gambling.
3) Sellside liquidity taken out. This is our signal. If not now then when? Again this isn't me telling you to short. Who am I? No one, do your own research.
So what now?
We want a retracement in the reload zone and the 0.702 + FVG is THE place to be. If it goes higher then I'd cancel the idea for now. Again the DAILY ANALYSIS supports the short and that's what matters.
As always, happy trading and stop gambling you ape. ;)
BITCOIN Weekly Outlook - 22/01/24 Hello everyone,
as I ment in last week idea, I am expecting BTC rather going LOWER then Highier,
prior to FED meeting which is next week.
Since we doesnt have much volatility last week, Im would expect bigger moves to occur later this week, when Market related reports start coming...
To understand further view I would suggest to first check this out:
As right now: I would suggest be very carefull with NEW trade opens , and manage them very carefully since there is potentionall for liquidity swept due to low range last week...
So, everyone who WAS Short before this post or decided to go Short after, should be in favorable position right now. (opening price at time of post is represented by purple dotted line)
Our Liquidity Sellside targets are same as was last week.
BUT what would I suggest to everyone, and doing myself is ↓↓↓↓↓↓
Create STOP LOSS order ABOVE weekend Highs
WHY? , - Have in mind, we are still in Monday PRE-MARKET, if we all of sudden reverse today, before late week news drivers, we can potentionally go to OTE targets from last week. And in that case we would LOSE on our trade... Thats Why we wanna create STOP LOSS order above weekend price BUT under our OPENING price. So even if market reverse, our position still be closed in very small profit but not end in loss!!!
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
The bleeding continues to get worse in Bitcoin!Bitcoin has been bleeding out like a deer on the opening day of the hunt, and there's no sign of it stopping, in fact, it's going to continue to get worse in the coming weeks.
Just like that old Motley Crue song from Dr. Feelgood (and this won't feel good for sh@tcoin, I mean Bitcoin holders at all), 'She goes down, she goes down, she goes down, down, down, down... all night long!
Bitcoin is heading to 35K.
BTC at a resistance from 2013, down to 1k-3kI have never doom posted on crypto but it's all coming together. We hit a strong resistance from 2013 and dropped exactly there, all the logarythmic guys are going to be thrown of. This is going to be a massacre, I keep trying to tell everyone but everyone seems comfortable just HODL'ing which I get but I have a very strong gut feeling this will change. Good luck out there, winter is coming.
BITCOIN Close timeframe analyses - 18/01/24Hello guys,
today Im back with close up on,
What do I expect from BTC, prior coming close to FED meeting Jan31'.
I will try make it clean and simple, since thats How I prefere to handle trades.
On chart I marked Liquidity boxes for each Buyside and Sellside, those are my main targets in IF scenario.
-- IF scenario is --> IF price come HERE, I do THIS! --
So right now I believe that we swept Highs of our Buyside liquidity and close to end of month we will be working on Sellside (marked Lq t1-t3).
But, it doesnt mean that we have to move right now, there is still potentional, that in next few days (1-4) we will move to Optimal Trade Entry t1-t2. Which are 3% resp. 7%.. Which is far away, if you decide to open Short position at this moment. Which, is far from Optimal open in my opinion.
So, what would I do, in case I didnt have Open position?
________________________________________________
For me,the Best option right now would be to Wait until Today Market news happen, and then react to what price do, with a plan...
IF I would have to do something now, I would open Short position, with SUPER thin STOP LOSS range at 1,25% from Price in which are we right now, that would be Close above Yesterday Highs around 43225.99$.. If I goes above, trade is abadoned and I sit on hands waiting till price reach Buyside t1-t2 to Open new Short trade there at right time.
WHY I think there is Highier chance of going Lower then highier NEXT Close to meeting is ,
When I ZOOM OUT, to check Price from Highier Timeframe Perspective
(edit. picture working only after DOUBLE-click openning)
There is Clearly to see that after EVERY move Highier there was Retracment to prior price levels With TIME close to FED events.
In last few Months BTC rallied without really going throuth this process of "backtesting" price, and since we coming to "uncertainity event", I would expect that we may "get it done right now". And just after that, IF there is NO CHANGE in FED policy market Can keep going back to Highs.
Note, I expect we reach at least Sellside t1, potentionally close to t2... Reaching t3 would be considered as "extreme" in this short time. And potentionally GREAT reverse AREA.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
BTC → Bitcoin Blasts Through Resistance Then Falls Down. Short?Bitcoin completed its measured move on January 7th and gave us some extra price action up to the $49,000 area. With a strong sell signal and now a follow-through bar reaching the Daily 30EMA, is it time to short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
To justify a short trade, we need a Daily candle close below the 30EMA. The other data points all support a counter-trend trade: Measured Move Complete, Strong sell signal above key resistance area, RSI below the moving average around 50.00 with room to fall.
I frequently reference the 4HR chart when trading the Daily timeframe. As you can see in the chart below, the 200EMA on the 4HR chart overlaps with the 30EMA on the Daily chart. Using that same point of reference as a key support level, we can look for a close below the 4HR 200EMA to justify our short. That also allows us to get an earlier entry into the position:
Once we get that candle, we can justify a short scalp to the previous trading range/measured move mid-support at a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $42,650
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,950
✅ Take Profit: $38,350
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move Completed Into Key Resistance Area.
2. Strong Sell Signal Above Measured Move Resistance.
3. Strong Sell bar falling to 30EMA
4. Wait for Daily Candle to Close below 30EMA.
5. RSI at 50.00 and below Moving Average.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance to the top of the breakout will happen again above the top of the breakout.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Bitcoin : Why the ETF News is BEARISH for BTCHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
The Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to be announced any day now - but wat does this mean for the price of BTC?
When there's an unprecedented event that will affect the markets, it's helpful to return to the basics:
👉 Buy the rumor, sell the news
👉 Macro Analysis
👉 Candlestick analysis
👉 Buy the rumor, sell the news
If the ETF should be declined (which seems unlikely), the price will definitely react negatively. But if the ETF is approved (as most widely anticipated), the price will likely also drop as the classic dump after good news.
👉 Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for a correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave.
👉 Candlestick analysis
BTC has made 5 consecutive green candles in the MONTHLY. A red one is definitely overdue. This will support as a "fundamental reason" for the ETF news.
NOTE that I am still BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting one around the time of the ETF news.
If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢
👍Hit like & Follow 👍
CryptoCheck
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
DXY Reverse H&S and Trend Channel Breakout as BTC Loses $45kAfter the ETF hype and $48.5k Golden Pocket selling pressure...
The DXY has been consolidating sideways, technically breaking it's downward trending channel.
As of today, Bitcoin has lost the $45k support level and heading lower towards $38k - $40k.
Fueling the selloff were hotter than expected CPI and inflation data, and the realization that the new approved ETF's were not immediately deploying their bags en masse into the spot market.
A big question remains...
Will most of the money flowing into institutional ETF's lead toward higher spot Bitcion prices directly from buying in the open market, or will most of this happen OTC, and not push retail prices higher.
This remains to be seen.
Regardless, Bitcion has been on a tear since the September relative lows and hitting the upper range of it's upward sloping trend channel. To sustain a larger rally later, and to sustain the strength to break past old highs, and past the proverbial '$100k Bitcoin' level and beyond..
A pullback to $38k support would make sense, which would be roughly a 20% pullback from the recent highs and which we've seen 2x before this year.
However, a deeper 33% correction to retest the $32k support / resistance level is also in the cards, and would present an excellent DCA buying level to re-accumulate Bitcoin.
What do you think?
Bitcoin may be heading south for the winter!At least temporarily. When I look at this chart, I see imbalanced price action all over the place (purple boxes). And as we know with the smart money strategy, price will sooner or later make its way back into these areas.
So, my thinking is, if we get a break of structure (dotted line) followed by a re-test somewhere close to the imbalance above that area, or the manipulation candle (solid red line), then we may be looking at a temporary change in direction.
That said, Bitcoin has been in a strong bullish environment since Nov. 2022, so it’s riskier than a similar set up moving in the opposite direction. Manage your bankroll accordingly!
Will it hold?Bitcoin is retesting (again) my trendline. I see everyone calling for new highs, and last time that everyone was greedy... You know what happend. Now you are all greedy again, what could happen? I personally sold half of all my spot bags, and added more to the BTC shorts. I am short on BTC only. Of course my trendline can't hold forever, but i think we are closer to the drop. Big funds want to buy bitcoin, do you think they will buy it at this price when they can buy lower dropping it? Are you serious?
Sec will reject all etf bitcoin today.Today marks a critical point for Bitcoin, as the ETF is set to announce their decision on the Bitcoin ETF. There's a strong likelihood that the ETF will be rejected, a decision that could trigger a substantial market reaction. We're potentially looking at a significant price dump, where Bitcoin could plummet to the $3,000 to $1,000 range, and it might even go below $1,000.
This drastic decrease, however, presents a unique opportunity. For investors and traders looking to capitalize on market movements, this zone is poised to be an exceptionally lucrative buy zone. The potential for recovery and a surge to new highs is substantial, making it an ideal time for strategic investment decisions.
Keep a close eye on market trends and be ready to act as this scenario unfolds. Remember, market dynamics are unpredictable, and it's crucial to approach with caution and do thorough research before making any investment decisions. Stay updated and prepared for a significant shift in the Bitcoin market landscape.