BTC → Bitcoin Blasts Through Resistance Then Falls Down. Short?Bitcoin completed its measured move on January 7th and gave us some extra price action up to the $49,000 area. With a strong sell signal and now a follow-through bar reaching the Daily 30EMA, is it time to short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
To justify a short trade, we need a Daily candle close below the 30EMA. The other data points all support a counter-trend trade: Measured Move Complete, Strong sell signal above key resistance area, RSI below the moving average around 50.00 with room to fall.
I frequently reference the 4HR chart when trading the Daily timeframe. As you can see in the chart below, the 200EMA on the 4HR chart overlaps with the 30EMA on the Daily chart. Using that same point of reference as a key support level, we can look for a close below the 4HR 200EMA to justify our short. That also allows us to get an earlier entry into the position:
Once we get that candle, we can justify a short scalp to the previous trading range/measured move mid-support at a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $42,650
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,950
✅ Take Profit: $38,350
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move Completed Into Key Resistance Area.
2. Strong Sell Signal Above Measured Move Resistance.
3. Strong Sell bar falling to 30EMA
4. Wait for Daily Candle to Close below 30EMA.
5. RSI at 50.00 and below Moving Average.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance to the top of the breakout will happen again above the top of the breakout.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Bitcoinshort
Bitcoin : Why the ETF News is BEARISH for BTCHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
The Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to be announced any day now - but wat does this mean for the price of BTC?
When there's an unprecedented event that will affect the markets, it's helpful to return to the basics:
👉 Buy the rumor, sell the news
👉 Macro Analysis
👉 Candlestick analysis
👉 Buy the rumor, sell the news
If the ETF should be declined (which seems unlikely), the price will definitely react negatively. But if the ETF is approved (as most widely anticipated), the price will likely also drop as the classic dump after good news.
👉 Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for a correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave.
👉 Candlestick analysis
BTC has made 5 consecutive green candles in the MONTHLY. A red one is definitely overdue. This will support as a "fundamental reason" for the ETF news.
NOTE that I am still BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting one around the time of the ETF news.
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CryptoCheck
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
DXY Reverse H&S and Trend Channel Breakout as BTC Loses $45kAfter the ETF hype and $48.5k Golden Pocket selling pressure...
The DXY has been consolidating sideways, technically breaking it's downward trending channel.
As of today, Bitcoin has lost the $45k support level and heading lower towards $38k - $40k.
Fueling the selloff were hotter than expected CPI and inflation data, and the realization that the new approved ETF's were not immediately deploying their bags en masse into the spot market.
A big question remains...
Will most of the money flowing into institutional ETF's lead toward higher spot Bitcion prices directly from buying in the open market, or will most of this happen OTC, and not push retail prices higher.
This remains to be seen.
Regardless, Bitcion has been on a tear since the September relative lows and hitting the upper range of it's upward sloping trend channel. To sustain a larger rally later, and to sustain the strength to break past old highs, and past the proverbial '$100k Bitcoin' level and beyond..
A pullback to $38k support would make sense, which would be roughly a 20% pullback from the recent highs and which we've seen 2x before this year.
However, a deeper 33% correction to retest the $32k support / resistance level is also in the cards, and would present an excellent DCA buying level to re-accumulate Bitcoin.
What do you think?
Bitcoin may be heading south for the winter!At least temporarily. When I look at this chart, I see imbalanced price action all over the place (purple boxes). And as we know with the smart money strategy, price will sooner or later make its way back into these areas.
So, my thinking is, if we get a break of structure (dotted line) followed by a re-test somewhere close to the imbalance above that area, or the manipulation candle (solid red line), then we may be looking at a temporary change in direction.
That said, Bitcoin has been in a strong bullish environment since Nov. 2022, so it’s riskier than a similar set up moving in the opposite direction. Manage your bankroll accordingly!
Will it hold?Bitcoin is retesting (again) my trendline. I see everyone calling for new highs, and last time that everyone was greedy... You know what happend. Now you are all greedy again, what could happen? I personally sold half of all my spot bags, and added more to the BTC shorts. I am short on BTC only. Of course my trendline can't hold forever, but i think we are closer to the drop. Big funds want to buy bitcoin, do you think they will buy it at this price when they can buy lower dropping it? Are you serious?
Sec will reject all etf bitcoin today.Today marks a critical point for Bitcoin, as the ETF is set to announce their decision on the Bitcoin ETF. There's a strong likelihood that the ETF will be rejected, a decision that could trigger a substantial market reaction. We're potentially looking at a significant price dump, where Bitcoin could plummet to the $3,000 to $1,000 range, and it might even go below $1,000.
This drastic decrease, however, presents a unique opportunity. For investors and traders looking to capitalize on market movements, this zone is poised to be an exceptionally lucrative buy zone. The potential for recovery and a surge to new highs is substantial, making it an ideal time for strategic investment decisions.
Keep a close eye on market trends and be ready to act as this scenario unfolds. Remember, market dynamics are unpredictable, and it's crucial to approach with caution and do thorough research before making any investment decisions. Stay updated and prepared for a significant shift in the Bitcoin market landscape.
Bitcoin: Quick BreatherSpeculations
I believe Bitcoin is coming due for a "steep" correction but not in an unload your wallets and get out of the game kind of way. It has rallied hard over the last few months and despite experiencing significant increases in value, Bitcoin's volume has slowly dwindled. It is for those reasons and -- more in the following paragraph -- that I believe Bitcoin will most likely see a drop to around $35K.
Trend Analysis
On the 1D and hourly charts, I have drawn out a symmetrical triangle (yellow) that envelops the $35K support which rests around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I utilized Fib retracements in both the up and downtrends to find what I believe will be a reasonable bottom; the downtrend Fib levels place 61.8% too low in my opinion.
Bitcoin's current value is consolidating within a smaller symmetrical pennant (white) and appears to be on the verge of breaking down. Using the volume indicators and Fibonacci levels to support my theory, I believe that selling pressure will increase as we approach the Bitcoin ETF decision. I think that many traders will exit their positions out of fear of an ETF rejection which will cause a cascade to the 61.8% Fib level.
Speculative Projections
Because of the crypto market's overall bullish sentiments, I feel comfortable projecting a double bottom pattern that may develop within the symmetrical triangle. However, once an ETF decision has been made I don't believe the current patterns will remain valid. I am expecting that there will be a premature breakout or breakdown at this time.
BITCOIN MAY FALL TO 15KBITCOIN has been bullish and many traders are predicting it to reach 100k this year, which is more likely, but from the current price action ,it is showing some sign of weakness on daily chart, if it will fail to break FWB:48K there is a chance for bitcoin to drop to 15k-20k ..
Bitcoin Top and 27% Pullback Likely To $32k Support?Looking like Bitcoin topping out here and in need of refresh and retest of lower support.
Since BTC commonly has 25%-27% pullbacks to support, this is looking more like a 'Sell the News' setup for when the BlackRock ETF likely gets approved in early January.
For this rally to sustain and hit our higher projections of $100k, $155k, or even $210k, Bitcoin needs to retest support around $32k level in my opinion.
At least a pullback to $38k before resuming the push higher to the FWB:48K - $50k Golden Pocket.
What do you think Bitcoin goes next?
Severe short term downside risk in BitcoinTransaction fees have reached surreal levels in Bitcoin with almost 17 Mio USD spent in transaction fees daily. Although there is not a direct correlation between transaction fees and the price of Bitcoin periods with high fees usually, sooner or later, resulted in a negative price reaction for Bitcoin.
At this point I would not be surprised to see a price reaction down to 34,000 to 38,000 USD short term! Long term I am still very bullish, but the short term risk is (for me) evident at the moment. So better be careful with using leverage for BTC long swing trades at the moment.
BTC Macro UpdatesBTC make perfect Bearish Shark at 35900$ as i have already share chart regarding this.
As you can see BTC spot has no volume since March as mentioned in chart.
It is just manipulation and grapping liquidity
According to onchain analysis Upside liquidity has been grab almost 1.5B$ has been liquidate.Everyone is bullish now which means big move is coming.This senerio is remindering about recent crash when BTC touch 50k$ from 30k$ in May 2022.
Becaregul with your trade on larger tf.
Trendline has also been broken and just retesting here.
If BTC cross 37000$ with full candle it will invalidate this pattern.
This is macro analysis based on weekly tf.
If you like this kindly follow me and like this Idea
Thank you
Bitcoin Weekly TFBitcoin has maintained a bullish trend for 84 consecutive days, displaying an 80% increase. Anticipate a response in the range of 46650 - 47350, followed by an expected pullback of approximately 30%. Various indicators, including the descending trendline, ascending trendline, reversal point, overbought conditions on RSI, and structural considerations, suggest that this correction may occur during any session by the end of next week.
Amazing Unseen BTC Short Setup / Fake Breakout of WedgeThis Chart makes a lot more sense on the daily because the breakout on daily 1 candle
Daily Chart Here:
However the rejection and inability to clearly breakout of 41,639 made me want to post this as it could possibly be a fake breakout from the rising wedge on the daily chart.
I was positive if it hit 41.6K it sky rocket... but it doesn't look to be that way, but time will tell
Resistance 41.6K
Old Resistance - Wedge Line 39K ish follow the cahrt
Older Resistance - 37.9K
New Support and Resistance for BTC Breakout or CrashI'm posting this at the pico top after seeing it failed to breakout. It could still break the current resistance line, but I wanted to post now for people for the best possible short setup and areas to take profits
Currently Tested & Failed Resistance $41,639
New Possible Support / Old Resistance: Hard to say around 39.5K (see wedge)
New Possible Support / Old Resistance: 37.9K from initial break out
BTCUSD (Bitcoin vs United States Dollars USD) Shorting Chance Technical Analysis:
There are several signaling settings that indicate a shorting bias. These include:
1. Bearish Divergence of Price with MACD: Bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator forms lower highs. This pattern indicates a potential reversal in the prevailing trend and signifies a bearish bias in the market.
2. Abundant Fibonacci Confluence Levels and Pivot Points between Bullish and Bearish Cycles: This refers to the occurrence of multiple Fibonacci retracement and extension levels aligning with key pivot points in the price action. These confluences indicate areas of potential resistance, strengthening the bearish bias.
3. Candle Triangle Pattern with a Significant False Break: This pattern occurs when the price forms a series of lower highs and higher lows, creating a triangle shape. A significant false break happens when the price briefly breaks out of the triangle pattern but quickly reverses back within it. This false break suggests a potential reversal and supports a shorting bias.
Bitcoin Peaks at $42,000 - What's Next? Bitcoin Peaks at $42,000 - What's Next?
In a new surge of momentum fueled by widespread optimism that the U.S. securities regulator may soon approve a spot bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin briefly surpassing $42,000 to reach a 20-month high.
There is a sense of optimism in the space regarding the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. securities regulator. Such approval would likely enable a new type of investor to enter the cryptocurrency market through the regulated stock exchange, leading to an influx of capital into the digital asset. In October, SEC Chair Gary Gensler alluded to the agency's consideration of up to 10 bitcoin ETF filings.
Additionally, falling inflation in the US is making higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin more attractive.
This sounds like a certain bullish environment, right? Well... nothing is certain in crypto so some downside projections might be appropriate to consider too. So, with that in mind, the gap on Sunday still needs to be filled, starting with approximate prices at $39,600 and $39,000.
BTC SHORT - 42K to 31K "Bitcoin has reached a significant and crucial point (42k). Bitcoin has not faced much resistance lately. However, it appears to be reaching a point now where it will need to reverse to retest the breakout of (31k). This will also result in the closure of various gaps, including those on XRP."
Please tell me in comments what you think!
Feeling Brave?! Sell Bitcoin Now at 50% FibJust under 42K in BTCUSD is the 50% Fib of the entire drop from record highs to the 2022 low. It is also the objective from the recent triangle breakout.
Note: this is very counter momentum - which are usually works out pretty quickly - either in profit or loss! Also - the triangle is probably part of a bull pennant in which case the upside objective is more like 49K.
BITCOIN REVERSAL RISING WEDGE - DONT MISS THISWhat is a Rising Wedge? What helps us look at it and confirm it?
✅ Upward Trend: The pattern typically forms during an upward price movement.
✅ Converging Trendlines: Both the support and resistance trendlines slope upwards, but they converge as the pattern matures.
✅ Volume: A declining volume accompanying the formation often strengthens the pattern's bearish signal.
✅ Breakout: Confirmation of the pattern occurs when the price breaks below the lower support trendline, where we short
I've been calling this reversal since November 17 on X
WHO AM I?
- New to chart here, but a20K Followers on X @dogdaddevan constantly posting
- MEXC Official Partner
- I bought ATL SHIB Nov 2020 (only vol that day) and sold early like a bozo.