Risk/Reward favors downside shift to risk Off Sentiment.. BTC has reached a crucial point in which candles appear to be failing around 35K. We must consider potential scenarios to begin the new month of November. In One of these scenarios we may anticpate a retracement to capture fomo liquidity. Fomo liquidity is psychological concept in trading that refers to the chasing of price.
New Monthly candle retracement for liquidity purposes.
Current : 34775
33,372 TP 1
TP 2 30,300 Weekly Level
Trade idea Fakeout back below 35K
Bitcoinshort
BTC To $38830/highr or $37,500/lowerSo for waiting on either of 3 specific scenario to happen before taking an entry. It's a more refined strategy combining some keys things that provided me with high probability setups.
1. For long scenario my target would be $38,830 or as high as $40k. So wouldn't immediately close at $38,830 but would take 50% profit for sure. Entry would be around current price after I see a particular confirmation.
2. For 1st short scenario .
Entry around $38,700 area after a particular confirmation and target $38,200
3. Or Short Entry under $38,250 if bulls fail to hold and target $37,500 or lower
All scenarios offer Great risk to reward of at least 3:1 with good stop placements. No, need to go lower for sniper entry, if anything I'll go higher tf to glance at what's happening overall and just to keep in mind amount of time left in a particular htf candle but main focus will be on 30 minute tf.
Also, I purposely hide some stuff from my chart but no indicators, just some things I don't feel comfortable revealing. Call it gate keeping or whatever. Anyone trading for a good while might have a clue.
Risk for these trades is 0.25% Right now, I tend to size down from .5% If I have a few back to back losses and size up to max 1% when things are going well. So for all those people who think I'm going to get liquidated because of a few trades, am not your guy lol, I'll be here for a while Mfers.
Also Important news happening now. With a few more to come. So careful might get violent spikes.
Bitcoin Falling to $35,000!? The Ascending Wedge Calls for Doom.Bitcoin has fallen out of the 4HR bull channel and failed to break above the Weekly Resistance 3 times. This is a decent short-term sell signal that if your trade is managed properly, the probability of profit is on your side.
How do we trade this?
Bitcoins macro trend is bullish, so we must exercise caution when considering a short. While the trend is a major data point, we must also consider the rest of the picture in front of us. Bitcoin has failed three times to break Weekly Resistance, a reversal signal. We've fallen out of the 4HR bull channel, another signal to sell. There's a gap to minor support which has been tested twice and the RSI is below the Moving Average with room to fall; all data points in favor of a short.
It is reasonable to have a short-term sell bias on this 4HR timeframe but proceed with caution. The first sign of a bull reversal bar closing on or near its high means it's time to exit the trade.
Trade Idea:
Short Entry: $37,630
Stop Loss: $38,270
Take Profit: $36,350
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Key Takeaways
1. Fell out of Bull Channel, Now in Ascending Wedge.
2. Currently re-testing bull channel support.
3. Gap down to Minor Support at $36,200.
4. RSI at 48.00 below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
5. Short to Minor Support.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
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Bitcoin 4HR Triple-Top! About to Reverse to $34,500?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is testing the Weekly Bull Channel resistance and potentially forming a triple-top reversal pattern. If the price fails to hold above $38,000, we could be looking at a pullback to the 4HR 200EMA at $34,500.
How do we trade this?
We're in a bull channel, which means our bias should be to the upside. With the price levels being near the Weekly Bull Channel Resistance, that long bias has to be put on hold. RSI is around 63.00, and we may form a triple top. If that happens and we get a strong reversal signal bar and confirmation, a short to the $34,500 area is reasonable with a stop loss just above $38,000.
Longing at this price ($37,200) would necessarily include a stop loss just below channel support at around $36,000. A proper take profit would be at the Weekly Bull Channel resistance of $38,000, leaving us with a 2:1 Risk/Reward ratio. This could be an ideal scalp if you reduce your max position size by half, but the probability of profit longing is not high enough given the close resistance.
Key Points
1. Bitcoin is still in a Bull Channel.
2. Price is Near Weekly Bull Channel Resistance.
3. Potential Triple Top Forming.
4. RSI at 63.00, There's More Downside than Upside.
5. Wait for a Sell Signal to Short.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Bitcoin short term bear, long term mega bullI see that bitcoin and crypto currencies will move slowly down during coming 2-4 weeks. If bitcoin find support between 30-31,5k I see this as the last opportunity to get in "early" in this bullrun (would not necessarily recommend bitcoin though, but altcoins intead).
Bitcoin to continue moving downwards until tomorrow eveningthere was a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin as it experienced a sudden decline of $1000, bringing it down to $35,344 by the evening. This downward movement caught the attention of traders and market observers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a commonly used technical analysis indicator, also signaled a bearish trend, further supporting the notion of a potential price decrease.
During this period, Bitcoin exhibited a rapid decline, with the price falling by approximately $75 every 15 minutes. This swift descent created an atmosphere of heightened volatility and uncertainty within the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors closely monitored the situation, considering various factors that could have contributed to this particular market movement.
Events like these serve as reminders of the dynamic nature of cryptocurrency markets and the importance of closely monitoring price trends and utilizing technical indicators such as RSI to aid in decision-making. It's crucial to conduct thorough research, stay informed about market developments, and exercise caution when engaging in cryptocurrency trading or investment activities.
BTC 4HR Analysis - Bears Are Taking Control to 200EMA!Bitcoin has had three pushes up from its previous trading range ending with a failed break of the $37,500 resistance level three times, leading the price below the 30EMA. Per my Weekly Analysis, the $37,500 price area is Bitcoin's Weekly Bull Channel resistance. These data points mean a short is reasonable from the $37,000 price area with a stop just above the pin bar at $38,000. It's also reasonable to take some profits at the bull channel bottom (about 1:1 Risk/Reward) and the remainder just before the 200EMA around the $34,000 area.
Key Points
1. Bitcoin is still in a Bull Channel
2. We have three pushes up ending with a strong bear pin bar
3. Three failed attempts to break and hold $37,500.
4. Gap from Current Price to 4HR 200EMA
5. RSI is just above 40.00 with Room to Fall
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Potentially good opportunity to buy BTC soon !#4 Newsletter: Week 12.11.23 - 19.11.23
Updated Fibonacci level to recent top 3800
1. Signs of Bearish Divergence on RSI, MACD
2. $38k was the price when LUNA collapse so expected decent stop-loss, profit-taking here
Trade Ideas
1. Short above $37.5 at ½ size (no auto stop – we manage accordingly under $40)
2. Always target 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci level under $34k, hence around +2 R/R
*Just to be clear, I believe this is a start of the bull market and “follow the trend: buy when uptrend, sell when downtrend ” will make our life so much easier i.e less hustle, higher hit rate, even bad entry will become an accumulation. We rather wait for Bullish Divergence entry than Bearish Divergence entry
A short for profit is unnecessary, too much work and uncertainty for too little money (small size at best). The point is for me personally to feel the market as I will start buying BTC soon and mostly spread across level and timeline
More interesting opportunities would be on ETH and Alt Market, but
1. I’m not a big fan of Alt market now, price can pump 20-40% but can crash the same as quickly and easily. My goal is to establish my exposure into the market for the coming months so I need size, not a profit
2. ETH is a better choice consider that it is more fundamental and a benchmark for alt season etc... ETF news would help too. But again, finding an entry on BTC should be my priority now
#btc #bitcoin has liquidated shorters and now to liq longers?..A clear deviation you' ll see on the chart i highlighted round area. The high leveraged shorters are now liquidated. There are plenty of liquidations downside especially 33900 - 31200 - 23500 and 20250 area. What now? We' ll see..
This NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
BTCUSDTBTCUSDT
We are currently seeing some interesting BTCUSDT price action. The second time the price is trying to break through the strong resistance at $31162. We consider two scenarios.
Bearish scenario: If BTC fails to break through the indicated resistance and bounces off of it, we may see a reverse bounce down. Our green trend line may come under pressure and if the price moves lower, the next support levels are in the $23345-$19942 range.
Bullish scenario: In the event of a breakdown and holding positions above the $31162 resistance level, this may open the way for further growth. Here our targets will be in the range of $33900-37100
Our recommendation: We advise you to keep 10-20% of your deposit in BTC in case the 2019 scenario repeats.
Good luck and good deals!
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Bitcoin Runs into Strong Resistance on the Weekly.Recently, INDEX:BTCUSD has been having a bit of a bull run. This is probably because most people were and are still expecting a Spot ETF to be approved. That is, according to mainstream sources.
I'm not sure whether the bull run has finished yet, however, we do have some chart statistics that show Bitcoin will probably have a pullback.
Firstly, the RSI is showing >80 on the Daily at the moment, which is very overbought. In fact, during the bull run, Bitcoin hit an RSI number of 90+ temporarily. To put that into perspective, that is the same RSI number Bitcoin hit when it had its late 2021 bull run.
RSI on the Daily
Secondly, there are two strong trend lines on the weekly chart that Bitcoin has just run into, and its clear they're strong resistance.
Weekly Chart
I have shorted KUCOIN:BTCUSDT at this level, and I'm expecting the price to go down soon. Although, I could be wrong.
#bitcoin #btc What Now? ;)#btcusdt is now testing the top of the channel. This means:
+ Breaking up will start the bull run.
- Declination will dump btc price.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
BTC DO NOT DOING THIS, I WILL TRY All this has been stretched out for me for a long time, at 29700 I was not berish, I tried the scalp and that's it. Somehow I believe we can capture this and win a nice profit. Very risky but tempting for me.
We are waiting for spikes and place the order as you like, if I am wrong let the price deny me.
If anyone knows how to post a closed order through the exchange, feel free to contact me, because I don't know how else to do it except for the link
Is the rally over for BITCOIN???In my opinion , any consolidation here can be a sign that those big players are loading shorts. Personally , I wont be taking any long setups until we break this weekly FVG , until then I am expecting a sideways move for few days and possibly short setups after that .
Always manage your risk and capital .
SteadyCompound #1 Newsletter: Week 23.10.23 - 29.10.23Welcome to SteadyCompound 1st Newsletter,
A few notes about my approach to nowadays trading
- I am a retired trader (2008-2018). I day-traded high frequency time-frame across Stock (2008), Bond Futures (2010), Forex / Gold (2012), Commodity e.g. Brent, Gas (2015) and Crypto (2017)
- I turned start-up cofounder (2020) and recently gained financial freedom (2023), which define my approach to now "trading as a hobby": refrain from over-trade and opt for high probability trade only with high R/R, clear indicators and peace of mind
- My goal is to steadily compound wealth and accumulate Bitcoin long-term
Trade Ideas for Week 23.10.23 - 29.10.23
1. Range has been stable for 6 months within 25K - 31K territory so we can exit our long at high 30k - low 31K
2. Taking Short Position at high 31K e.g 31600 is our SC "SteadyCompound" trade:
- short into the down trend / RSI oversold +75 / year-high 31K resistant / low volume spike for 2.7 R/R ratio, targeting above 27K
- hard-stop of 5% at right above 33K e.g 33113 (there is another resistant range at 31K - 33K formed during 2021-2022 which possibly allow us to scratch / take small loss on our short position)
#steadycompound #financialfreedom #tradingstrategy #systematic #bitcoin
p/s repost for Binance Exchange