BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is basically on its first strong pull-back since the July 14 All Time High (ATH), as it is the 3rd straight red day going from roughly $120300 to below $115000 as of this moment.
Technically this Channel Down pull-back looks like a Bull Flag to the uptrend that started following the June 22 Low. The 1D RSI pattern is similar to the May 22 - 30 fractal, which was also a correction that started after a Channel Up and initially hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to rebound a settle for a last dip lower closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If the 1D MA50 fails to contain the current correction, we may again be faced with a slightly more prolonged pull-back, which may be translated into an Accumulation Phase that could eventually lead to prices above $130000 by September.
Do you think that will be the case or we will see an instant rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: The Key Buying Level Near $112K Liquidity ZoneFenzoFx—Bitcoin consolidation extended into the bullish FVG, trading near $115,470.0. The 4-hour chart shows an indecisive candle, while the 200-day MA points upward, signaling bullish control.
The bullish outlook remains intact if price holds above the critical $112,000.0 support. However, current bearish momentum may drag price toward this level, potentially filling nearby FVGs.
Traders should monitor $112,000.0 for bullish setups, including break of structure and long-wick bullish candles.
BITCOIN Former Resistance turned Support!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating right above the December 17 2024 Pivot trend-line, a level that started off as a massive Resistance delivering two strong rejections but has now been turned into Support, holding this consolidation.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will soon cross this Pivot trend-line and will confirm it as a Support with the price technically looking for a new Bullish Leg towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at least ($138000), similar to the April - May uptrend, which also consisted of an Accumulation Phase much like the current.
Can the Pivot trend-line provide the necessary support for such a rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Isn't even overbought yet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been rising strongly within a structured Channel Up pattern but even this consistent and steady uptrend since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been enough to touch the Pi Cycle's overbought trend-line (red).
Throughout BTC's historic Cycles, all Tops have been priced after the overbought level was breached, which currently sits around $180000 (and rising). Given that the 4-year Cycle Theory won't change, even a repeat of the 'weaker' +136.49% last rally of the previous Cycle (Jun-Nov 2021), would take us to $180k exactly but still will be below the overbought trend-line. This just shows the immense upside potential of the market even at the current stages.
So do you think we will get that kind of rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Accumulation Phase almost completed. Higher from here?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is making a strong rebound on the bottom of its 1-month Channel Up and this analysis is in direct response to the one we published last week (July 15, see chart below), where we called this one-week consolidation:
We won't be going into too much detail then, as you can see the price made the Accumulation 2 Phase, after an identical +25.9% Bullish Leg, same as April's and by breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
As per the May 05 fractal hit, as long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) supports this Channel Up, the market should start Bullish Leg 3 towards Accumulation Phase 3 and eventually peak at around +43% from its start at $140000.
Do you think the pattern will continue to be repeated in the exact same order? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- 175-200k by year's endEvery major Bitcoin move over the last decade — whether a jaw-dropping bull run or a brutal crash — has shared one silent macro trigger.
It’s not the halving.
It’s not ETF hype.
It’s not Twitter sentiment or TikTok FOMO.
👉 It’s global liquidity.
And right now, this powerful force is expanding fast — the same setup that previously drove Bitcoin from $5K to $70K in under a year.
But here’s the twist: as of today, Bitcoin is already trading near $120,000, not $20K or 30k.
That means the engine is already roaring — and if this macro thesis holds, the next stop might just be $175,000-200.000 by year's end.
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🧠 What Is Global Liquidity, Really?
Global liquidity = the total money sloshing around the financial system.
It’s often measured through M2 money supply, combining:
• Cash
• Checking/savings deposits
• Easily accessible liquid assets
The most comprehensive view comes from Global M2, which aggregates liquidity from 20 of the world’s largest central banks.
Right now, Global M2 is not just rising — it’s breaking to all-time highs.
And if history repeats itself, Bitcoin tends to follow this wave closely.
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📅 Past Performance: Bitcoin and Liquidity Walk Hand in Hand
Let’s break it down:
• 2016–2017: Liquidity surges → BTC +5,000%
• 2020–2021: Post-COVID easing → BTC $5K to $69K
• 2018 & 2022: Liquidity dries up → BTC crashes ~70%
It’s a recurring pattern:
Liquidity drives the crypto cycle.
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💡 Why Liquidity Moves: Interest Rates and Central Banks
Central banks control the tap.
• 🟢 Cut rates → Easier credit → More lending → More liquidity
• 🔴 Raise rates → Tighter credit → Less spending → Liquidity contraction
In 2022, the Fed tightened hard.
🧊 U.S. money supply shrank.
📉 Bitcoin fell from $70K to $15K.
But starting August 2023, the Fed paused, then pivoted.
Since then:
• 🟢 The U.S. M2 supply rebounded
• 🟢 Global M2 began expanding again
• 🟢 Over 64 global rate cuts were made in just six months — one of the fastest global easing cycles in history
The last time we saw this much cutting? 2020.
And we all know what happened to Bitcoin then.
U.S M2
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🟢 Today’s Setup: The Engine Is Already Running
Fast forward to mid-July 2025:
Bitcoin is no longer at $30K — it’s already testing $120K.
Intraday highs have touched $123K, with a current consolidation zone between $117K–$120K.
This isn’t a "recovery rally" — we’re already in price discovery territory.
The question now becomes:
Is $150K and above next… or are we topping out?
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📈 Charting the Path: Bitcoin vs Global M2
When we overlay Bitcoin price over global liquidity trends, one thing becomes crystal clear:
📊 Bitcoin tracks liquidity direction.
• When money supply expands, Bitcoin rallies.
• When money dries up, Bitcoin tanks.
Given that global M2 is at record highs, and liquidity conditions are easing globally, the chart suggests there’s still plenty of fuel in the tank.
And if we follow the same growth, Bitcoin could realistically reach $175,000 before 2026 kicks in.
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Technically:
As we can clearly see from the posted weekly chart, you don’t need to be an expert to recognize the strength of the current uptrend.
While last week printed a small bearish Pin Bar, this alone shouldn’t raise major concerns — especially considering the presence of multiple key support levels, starting from the 110K zone.
In the context of a strong and well-established trend, such candles often reflect normal short-term profit-taking, not a reversal.
🎯 Conclusion – Don’t Fight the Tide
This isn’t about hopium.
It’s not moon talk.
It’s about macro flows and monetary velocity.
Ignore the noise.
Watch what the central banks are doing.
Because Bitcoin moves not on wishful thinking, but on waves of liquidity — and the tide right now is rising fast.
Whether $175K comes by year-end, one thing is clear:
We are in the middle of a liquidity-driven expansion phase, and Bitcoin is already responding.
Stay focused, manage your risk, and don’t chase — ride the wave. 🌊
BITCOIN Entering Cyclical Profit Zone. Risk should be limited.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered the first level of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) Resistance Zone, which is the light pink band. The Top of the previous Cycle was priced at the top of the band just above this.
In fact every BTC Cycle had this as the 'Profit taking Zone'. The market marginally touched that also within December 2024 - January 2025 but got rejected, almost in similar fashion as January 2021, which was a Double Top approach of the peak formation during the previous Cycle.
This Cycle Top is expected to be within October - November 2025, so we call this the 'Profit Taking Zone' for a reason. Risk exposure from now on should be getting more and more limited. Peak range (depending of the nature of aggression of potential Rate Cuts in September) could be anywhere within $140 - 200k.
Do you think this is the time to start limiting BTC exposure, perhaps moving some of the huge profits to alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Should we still trust the Stock to Flow model??It sure worked perfectly during Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) first Cycles, but the Stock-to-Flow model has greatly diverged from the current price action since March 2024.
Right now the model sits at around $750000, which is vastly above the current market price of $119000. It's been trading sideways actually since June 2024 and all of the times that it was ranging, Bitcoin eventually caught up and closed the gap.
It has always been a 'story' of divergence and convergence but it sure seems unrealistic to catch up this time, especially during if this Cycle continues to follow the 4-year model.
So what do you think? Should we still trust what seems more and more like an 'obsolete' model as mass adoption kicks in? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will it go lower?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) pulled back rather aggressively yesterday after marginally breaking above $123000 and making a new All Time High (ATH).
We've mentioned before the similarities of this Bullish Leg to the April - May structure and so far the current pull-back having already touched the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, resembles the late April pull-back.
However, besides the 0.236 Fib, that pull-back also hit its 4H MA50 and rebounded, so that's a condition that hasn't been fulfilled. If it does, we are potentially looking for a Low around the $115k mark. Notice also how both fractals are supported by a Higher Lows trend-line exactly on their respective 4H MA100 (green trend-line) levels.
If BTC continues to replicate this pattern, we expect to see $140000 (+43.05% from the bottom) by early August.
Will the Support levels hold and push it that high? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Support at $112K Holds Key to Bullish ContinuationFenzoFx—Bitcoin is bullish, trading above $112,000.0 after forming a new all-time high at $123,231.0. The current dip may offer a strong reentry if $112,000.0 holds as support, aligning with a bullish fair value gap.
Price remains above the ascending trendline, reinforcing the bullish outlook. If momentum continues and BTC breaks past $123,231.0, the next target could be $130,000.0.
A fall below the trendline would invalidate the bullish setup.
BITCOIN High after High going for the Cycle Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today, just north of $123000 and shows absolutely no signs of stopping there!
The brilliantly structured 2.5-year Channel Up (blue) that has been dominating the entirety of the current Bull Cycle since the November 2022 market bottom, has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1W MA50 has been the Cycle's natural Support level since the March 13 2023 bullish break-out, never broken after, just like it has been for the 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle (excluding of course the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash).
In fact the similarities of the whole 2022 - 2025 Cycle are strong with the 2018 - 2021 Cycle. Similar Bear Cycles of -80% on average, followed by strong Lower Highs break-outs and subsequent consolidations within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, takes us to today with the April 2025 1W MA50 bounce resembling the July 2021 one.
Eventually, that Bullish Leg led to the Cycle's Top a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The market seems to be only one step away of completing that past pattern and if it does, BTC may hit $170000 before the Cycle peaks.
Do you think that is a likely scenario after today's new fresh ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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NETFLIX 1D MA50 test is a new buy opportunity.Netflix (NFLX) has been rising non-stop since the April 07 bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This bottom has been the latest Higher Low of the 3-year Channel Up that started on the June 14 2022 bottom.
This kickstarted its third long-term Bullish Leg. The previous two have been fairly similar (+210% and +195.93%) so we can assume a minimum total rise of +195.93% until the next top (Higher High of the Channel Up).
We can also see that on each Bullish Leg, after the initial rebound, the stock always tested the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. That has always been the best buy opportunity of that stage.
As a result, we believe that the recent short-term correction is a buy opportunity in disguise, targeting a Higher High at $2200.
Check out our previous analysis on Netflix:
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BITCOIN hit new ATH above $118k and isn't stopping there!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above its previous All Time High (ATH) Zone and the buying pressure accelerated so much that it even crossed above the $118k level early in the E.U. session.
Technically the bullish trend doesn't seem to stop there as following the Bull Flag (we've analyzed this extensively the previous days) break-out of mid-May to June, the long-term Bullish Leg that started on the April 07 2025 bottom, is looking now for its 2nd Phase (extension).
Based on the previous two Bullish Legs since 2024, we should be expecting at least a +91.12% rise from the April bottom, as so far the symmetry among all three fractals is remarkable. Equally strong Bearish Legs (around -32%) of roughly 112 days each, gave way to the Bullish Legs, which supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) pushed the market higher.
If this pattern continues to be replicated, we should expect this Leg to peak a little over $140000 before the next correction.
Do you think we'll get there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The Final Parabola: What History Says About Bitcoin’s July MovesIf you’ve been following here for a while, you know we’ve been nearly pinpoint in calling all the moves for Bitcoin. The altcoin market, not so much, but check out previous TAs to catch up on my perspective.
The two wave counts you see on the main chart have been in place for many months, I believe since around October 2024. As you can see, things have been playing out perfectly so far. The four year cycle continues to follow its path.
If the same thing happens this cycle like the last two, we should see a top sometime between October and December 2025, anywhere from 185K to 225K, followed by a cycle low somewhere around 48K in October 2026.
Bitcoin’s Julys
Every July during the 4th cycle year, Bitcoin begins its final parabolic run. This has happened without fail since the beginning of the Bitcoin Index chart. July consistently marks a major bottom, and then it's off to the races. The “only up” period that follows typically lasts 4 to 6 months and happens just once every four years like clockwork.
Here we are once again, the 4th year of the cycle, in July. Bitcoin has just hit all time highs and we've had a Hash Ribbon buy signal.
The perfect storm is brewing. Like always, the stars align in the second half of the 4th year of the Bitcoin cycle.
Time Cycles and Fibs
Looking at this time wave chart, we can see that every two waves like clockwork have marked a top. The next major wave appears to land in December 2025.
If we zoom into this smaller time wave, it has pinpointed the bottom of every small wave so far. The fact that we are once again at a bottom in July during the 4th year of the Bitcoin cycle is just another sign of the magical stars aligning.
This smaller Fibonacci sequence I’ve been tracking has already hit twice and predicted two major moves. The next dates to watch are August 2025 and January 2026.
There’s plenty of talk about an extended cycle. But during the last bull run, many traders and analysts said the same thing. In the end, Bitcoin topped out at exactly the same timeframe as the previous cycles.
If we reach the top of this model in Q4 2025, and we see a Pi Cycle Top signal along with a Mayer Multiple over 2.0, that will be our trigger.
If you've been sidelined this entire time, it's now or never. You don’t want to be the one buying in at 185K in Q4 2025 when everyone is calling for a million dollars. The time to act is now.
BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN turning the Bull Flag into Support??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading sideways, almost flat, since the July 03 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Perhaps the strongest development of the week though is the fact that this consolidation has been taking place at the top (Lower Highs) of what we previously identified as a Bull Flag pattern.
Together with the 1D MA50, this Lower Highs trend-line forms a formidable Support, which as long as it holds, can technically fulfil the technical expectations out of this pattern and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168500.
Is this one step closer to our 'fair valued' $150k Target for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is there enough time for another parabolic rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is practically consolidating on the short-term, having just recently been rejected off its new All Time High (ATH). Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook is still a very strong, structured uptrend, a Channel Up pattern that is now technically aiming for its next Higher High.
Incredibly enough, this Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, has been almost entirely within the Buy Zone (green) of the Fibonacci Channel Up going back all the way to April 2013!
As you can see during the previous two Cycles, every time BTC got above that Buy Zone, it started a parabolic rally. So far, we haven't got such rally on the current Cycle and with time running out (assuming the 4-year Cycle model continues to hold), do you think we will get one this time around?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Short-term Target = $117kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming off a 4H Golden Cross, attempting to hold the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as its short-term Support. The early hours of the E.U. session today show that this might be a difficult task, however comparison with May's Bullish Leg, gives positive signs.
Almost the entire month of May sequence has been an uptrend, which looks very similar to today's. Almost identical rises from their bottoms (+13.60% against +12.60%) until the first top, with similar 4H RSI fractals also, we can expect the current uptrend to make a second top soon near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $117000.
Are you expecting such an outcome in the coming days? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Roadmap => Short-termBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is moving above a Heavy Resistance zone($110,720-$105,820) , Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($110,300-$111,177) and is approaching All-Time High(ATH) .
Do you think Bitcoin will create a new All-Time High(ATH) in this rally?
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin's rise over the last two days appears to have been in the form of wave 5 .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks.
I expect Bitcoin to start declining in the coming hours. Targets are marked on the chart.
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $106,750-$106,202
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $111,223
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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