BITCOIN The Gaussian giving one of the rarest buys you can get.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within the (now green) Gaussian Channel since the mid-August decline. It is no surprise that it held that low and trade basically sideways as once the Gaussian turns green historically, it has signaled the phase of the bull market before the Halving. It shouldn't turn red again before the new Bear Cycle.
Last time BTC dipped inside a green Gaussian Channel after breaking into while red, was in October 2019. December - January 2020 followed with a strong rise before the non-technical and outside of any model's reach Black Swan event of COVID (which is an irregularity and doesn't count on our models).
As a result, such Gaussian green dip and trade is a rare buy opportunity during a Bull Cycle while prices are still relatively low. For reference, such an opportunity didn't emerge in the 2016 - 2017 Bull Cycle. Perhaps a 1W RSI at 40.00 would be the most ideal buy entry (lowest risk/ highest return).
But what do you think? Is this Gaussian pattern good enough for you to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN May not face again a Resistance Zone as strong as this!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the last 10 days. This neutrality, this sideways price action may be directly attributed to the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the top of the previous Bull Cycle.
But it's not only that double hurdle level that BTC needs to overcome. Directly above it, we have the 31800 Resistance (July 13 2023 High), which is also the Mega Pivot Zone between the two Cycles, as it started as a Support Zone (closing all 1W candles from May - July 2021 above it with emphasis) and since May 2022 has been the Resistance to beat.
It becomes obvious that this is a quadruple Resistance level and quite frankly the strongest obstacle BTC has faced thus far during the 2023 recovery phase and quite possibly a Resistance Cluster the likes of which may not face again during this new Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Is this the most critical Resistance Zone for Bitcoin and if so, will it break now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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🚧Bitcoin will Go Down Again🚧🔨Bitcoin started to rise from the 🟢 Heavy Support zone($25,280-$23,900) 🟢 and was able to break the Downtrend line yesterday.
✅Also, Bitcoin has managed to form an Ascending channel .
🏃♂️Bitcoin is currently moving in the 🔴 Resistance zone($28,460-$28,000) 🔴 near the SMA(100) and near the upper line of the ascending channel .
💡Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Price and Volume.
🌊In terms of Elliott Waves , Bitcoin managed to complete the main corrective wave A at the 🟢Heavy Support zone($25,280-$23,900)🟢 and is currently completing the main wave B.
📚Since the main wave A is five microwaves, we have to wait for the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and the higher the end of the main wave B is at higher prices, we expect the main wave C to be weaker.
📚☠️ Death Cross Signal ☠️: The death cross appears on a chart when an asset's short-term Moving Average(MA) , usually the 50-day, crosses below its long-term moving average, usually the 200-day.
🔔I expect the microwave C of the main wave B to finish at the 🔴 Resistance zone 🔴 or at the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡, and then Bitcoin will ⚔️ Attack ⚔️ the lower line of the ascending channel.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), Daily time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Cycle mapping like you've never seen it before!On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study, we plot the historic Cycles on top one another, classifying them into different phases. This is an alternative but very useful way at looking in BTC's historic cyclical action as it offers a sound perspective regarding our current place on the Cyclical Scale.
As you can see, the 2011 - 2013 Cycle is displayed in blue, the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in orange, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle in black and the current one 2022 onwards in red. The phases are: Bear (red), Accumulation (orange), 1st Rally (blue) and 2nd Rally (green). The three most recent Cycles are plotted as they are in terms of duration but the 2011 - 2013 one is stretched in order to fit the phase classifications and relate to the more recent Cycles.
As a result, its Halving (1) is also moved to its respective spot. It is no coincidence then that all Halvings (1 through 4) fall close to each other on what we call "the Halving Belt". Now this Cycle display gives a sound sense of Bitcoin's Cyclical perspective in relative terms (for Cycle 1). The "we are here" vertical line reveals the respective place relative to the past Cycles. As you see, it is about to end the Accumulation Phase and as it approaches Halving 4, start the 1st Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Does this chart give a fair sense of where we are now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin will go UP to my 🎯Target🎯⏰(15Min)⏰🏃Bitcoin is running on 🟢 Heavy Support zone($27,600-$27,300) 🟢 and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🔔I expect Bitcoin to rise toward the 🎯 Target 🎯 that I specified in my chart after breaking the 🔴 Resistance zone 🔴.
❗️ Note ❗️: if Bitcoin goes below the 🟢 Heavy Support zone($27,600-$27,300) 🟢 we have to expect that Bitcoin will go down more.
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🌐➕ Positive News ➕🌐:
In general, October has been a good month for cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum Futures ETFs Debut on Low Volumes.
Grayscale Moves to Convert Its Ethereum Trust to a Spot ETH ETF
🌐➖ Negative News ➖🌐:
Peter Schiff: ‘We Are Still Early in the Biggest Bond Market Crash in U.S. History’.
Stablecoin Economy Sheds $1.52 Billion in September, Revisiting a 2-Year Low.
This Crypto Exchange Reportedly Suffered a $13 Million Hack
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Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Made a MACD Bullish Cross that opens the road to $40k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Bullish Cross on the 3D time-frame and that helped the price last week to start the short term rise that broke above the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since mid August. The previous 3 MACD Bullish Crosses have all delivered a Higher High within the 11 month Channel Up.
What's also interesting is how firmly the MA100 (green trend-line) held on the September 10 Low. Technically once BTC reclaims the MA50 (i.e. closes a full candle above it), the new bullish wave of the Channel Up will be confirmed. We expect it to test Resistance 2 at 40000, a critical psychological level.
Do you think this MACD Bullish Cross was what BTC needed to kickstart the new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- Back to support?On 27 September I recommended a buy trade for Bitcoin saying that the cryptocurrency could rise and test 28500 resistance.
This target was reached on Monday and BtcUsd started to drop again.
Although I had a short-term buy trade, my bearish medium-term outlook has not altered and after this new test of resistance I think Btc will roll back down to support
At this moment we have Bitcoin just above confluence support and a rebound could follow.
However, I will use this rebound for a short trade against the recent high.
My target is 25k support
BITCOIN Alt season started and going all the way to the Halving!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may have found Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded but for basically the last 6 months it has been trading sideways/ consolidating. On the other hand, this hasn't stopped the altcoin market (orange trend-line depicting dominance) from breaking above its Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line 6 weeks ago. Historically, when alts broke above that distinct Lower Highs trend-line in previous Cycles, BTC has always been above the 1W MA50 and (with the exception of the COVID crash) never lost it.
We have approximately 154 days/ 22 weeks until the next Halving (no 4) and on the same time range in the past 2 Cycles, the alt season had alreay started. Typically this extends to at least the Halving event. On Halving 2 it saw a huge price spike while during Halving 3 it had a steady rise that continued even after the event. We can therefore draw the conclusion that the alt season has just started and has at least another 5 months of growth ahead of it (until Halving 4). At the same time, BTC should stay supported by the 1W MA50.
So what do you think? Have we broken aggressively into a long alt season? If so, are you going light on Bitcoin and heavy on alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cycle unlocked with Angle Theory! Can we reach 140-150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a strong break-out day on the 1D time-frames and below but this is only on the short-term. Still it is a step in the right direction on the long-term after trading sideways in the last 6 months within the 1W MA50 (Support) and 1W MA100 (Resistance).
** Cycle Peaks and angles **
Today's study brings you the a multi-cycle depiction on the 1W time-frame of BTC since the peak of its very first Cycle at $32. Those that followed ($1250, $19800, $69800) all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
It appears that every peak-to-peak measurement is roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 38°, 19°, 10°. We estimate a 6° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
** Next Cycle peak? **
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 6° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 150000. It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 7° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
So what do you think? Can Bitcoin reach $140-150k during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN First close above the 1D MA50 in 2 months?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again today and is very close to registering the first 1D candle closing above it since August 01. At the same time it broke above the Lower Highs of the Falling Wedge pattern that started on the July 13 High.
If it succeeds today in closing above it, we hav e high probabilities of seeing the bullish extension of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) we discussed last week materializing. The target extends as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci at 30000. The short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 28000. Interestingly enough Resistance 1 (28150) and Resistance 2 (30220) are near those two respective targets adding to their importance as supply levels.
Note that the 1D RSI has been on a strong Bullish Divergence since August 18 (candles on Lower Lows). That is why the IH&S has increased probabilities of breaking above the 2-month Falling Wedge pattern.
So what do you think? Is it time to break to the upside for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Don't expect any rebound as long as the USD is rising!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) failed again to break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), closing instead the 1W candle in red and is pulling back. Today's study is on the 1W time-frame and compares BTC's price action through the whole year to the U.S. Dollar's (DXY).
You would expect a correlation between the two but as you can see on these charts, it has gotten increasingly tighter lately. BTC's last two medium-term declines are the direct consequence of DXY's price increases. When DXY bottomed and started to rise, BTC topped and started to decline (vice verse DXY topping, BTC bottoming). Obviously a far riskier asset like Bitcoin is trading in a more aggressive pattern like a Channel Up while the more stable by nature currency is trading/ consolidating within a Megaphone.
DXY the approaching the top of that Megaphone pattern, in fact it is very close to the 105.900 High of March. Having broken above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) this month, while BTC is still supported on its own, we can't be realistically expecting Bitcoin to rebound as long as the DXY continues to rise, unless an outside catalyst such as very favorable (adoption) news hit the market. Until then Bitcoin should seek a Support confirmation on its 1W MA50, while DXY should start forming a top in October.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin rise irrelevant of what DXY will do, or we need to see a top on the latter first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Rejected on July's Resistance buy can this save the day?Last week we covered the Lower Highs trend-lines involved on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) medium-term price action (see chart below) and how each break-out would be a Resistance break targeting the next in line:
The Lower Highs 1 trend-line broke and almost hit our 27550 Target but the rejection on Lower Highs 2 (started on the July 13 High) has been so far rather emphatic. This was also a near 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection that pulled the price back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As discussed previously, the Fibonacci retracement levels play an important role on this price action. It should be no surprise that the 0.236 Fibonacci is holding so far this pull-back, while the rejection took place on the 0.382 Fib.
On the bright side, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) remains the long-term Support, while the 1D RSI is on a Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows as opposed to Lower Lows of the price). As a result, we may see Lower Highs 2 break especially if the pattern transitions into an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). Technically such patterns target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from their neckline. Surprisingly that is marginally below Resistance 2 (30220) and the 0.786 Fibonacci (30350). A straight 30000 target would be best for the medium-term.
We don't consider buying below Lower Highs 2 optimal, unless a new (last) pull-back towards the 1W MA50 occurs (excellent value entry). It would be more optimal to enter after a 1D candle closes above Lower Highs 2 or better yet a confirmed break of Resistance 1 (28150), which would be also a break above the 1D MA200.
So what do you think? Can this Inverse Head and Shoulders finally break above the Lower Highs and save the day for BTC? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Going for the Cycle's Lower Highs trendline and 1W MA100Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to test a major Resistance cluster, the Lower Highs trend-line from the Cycle's 2nd High and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter was the Resistance level that stopped the rally in July. The price has been essentially consolidating sideways within the 1W MA100 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since. The former (Lower Highs) is the trend-line that was a key Resistance in the past two Cycles and its break-out coincided with the break above the 1W MA100 as well.
Today BTC is only 30 weeks (210 days) before Halving 4 (April 2024). Going back to the past two Cycles, we can see that in both cases the price was exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on that respective date/time range and at the same time above the 1W MA100 (though only marginally). Today the price is roughly $5000 below the 0.5 Fib and below the 1W MA100. Can this be an indication that this Cycle may not be as aggressive? We can't be sure but what we do know is that a break above the Lower Highs and 1W MA100 trend-lines would be a strong medium-term bullish signal, at least until next year's Halving.
But what do you think? Are you expecting Bitcoin to finally break above the Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA100 on the current rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Above the 4H MA200 starting to test the Resistances.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 09. This was a critical Resistance as it made the emphatic August 29 rejection in the Greyscale aftermath.
With the 4H MA50's (blue trend-line) support, the price has now started to test the Resistance levels one by one with the first being the Lower Highs 1 trend-line that has been in effect since the August 08 High. If BTC closes a 1D candle above it, we will have the first bullish break-out signal and we will buy targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci level and Lower Highs 2 trend-line at 27550. This trend-line has been in effect since the annual High of July 13. Note that if this target is achieved, BTC will most likely form a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame (would be the first since June 22).
Beyond that, we will only engage in buying if a 1D candle is closed above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), a key level which is located slightly above Resistance 1 (28150) and slightly below the 0.5 Fibonacci. In that case our target will be 30220 (Resistance 2), marginally below Fibonacci 0.786.
Among all this, notice the significant Bullish Divergence that has been unfolding on the RSI, which has been on Higher Lows while Bitcoin traded on Lower Lows.
So what do you think about this critical test of the 4H MA200? Is it the first Resistance to break and many more will follow? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 1D Death Cross formed and its ugly! How bad can it be?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) couldn't avoid the Death Cross formation on the 1D time-frame as a result of August's decline. This is technically a bearish pattern, where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). So how bad can it be?
To answer that, we can look into the historic price action of course through past occurrences of the Death Cross pattern. On this analysis you see the last five (5) crosses (included the current one). Let's look into them with more detail one by one:
a) September 2023 (current)
The Death Cross was formed while the price is still above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is supporting since March 13 2023 (6 months).
At the same time, the 1D LMACD hit -0.03 and is rebounding following a Bullish Cross.
b) January 2022 (Bear Cycle)
The Death Cross was formed while the price had already dipped below the 1W MA50, indicating the confirmed transition to the Bear Cycle.
The 1D LMACD was already declining after a pre Death Cross hit at -0.06.
c) October 2019 & March 2020 (Bull Cycle)
The 2019 Death Cross was formed while the price was above the 1W MA50, but eventually hit it. The 1D LMACD was rising on a Bullish Cross after a pre Death Cross hit at -0.06.
The 2020 Death Cross was formed while the price was below the 1W MA50 and after the actual bottom. This was due to the COVID global asset wide market flash crash, which of course was an irregularity, a Black Swan event that can't offer any meaningful conclusions to our current analysis.
d) September 2015 (start of Bull Cycle)
The Death Cross was formed while the price was below the 1W MA50 (which was still unbroken throughout the Bear Cycle) and after the actual bottom. This was due to the Bitfinex flash crash. That was the actual bottom of the Bear Cycle and the start of the new Bull Cycle, which was confirmed by the breaking of the 1W MA50. The 1D LMACD was rising on a Bullish Cross after a pre Death Cross hit at -0.06.
** Conclusion **
This is a mix of results but we can agree that the key here will be the 1W MA50. As long as the price holds it or even at the event of a marginal break, rebounds immediately, BTC most likely avoids a new Bear Cycle. If not, then the price action in the following weeks/ months will most likely draw more comparisons with the January 2022 Death Cross.
So what do you think? How bad do you feel this Death Cross pattern is? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin is Ready to ⚔️Attack⚔️ the Support line⏰(15_Min)⏰✅As I expected, Bitcoin is completing the waves that I shared with you in the last few days. (I suggest you follow the previous posts to get a better understanding of the Bitcoin roadmap .).
↘️Bitcoin came back below the Resistance line and attacked the 🟢 Support zone($25,840_$25,600) 🟢.
🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin is completing its 5-wave downtrend;it seems to be completing wave 4 in 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🔔I expect Bitcoin will attack the Support line .
📚Of course, it should be noted that wave 4 may continue on Saturdays and Sundays , the reason being that the Volume Trading is generally low on these days.
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🌐➕ Positive News ➕🌐:
Nearly Half Of Institutions Are Holding Digital Assets For Clients: Report.
JPMorgan moves into deposit tokens for settlements: Report.
🌐➖ Negative News ➖🌐:
Bitcoin liquidates $23M in shorts as BTC price tags new September high.
CFTC Goes After Opyn, Other DeFi Operations in Enforcement Sweep.
IMF Releases New Paper to Address Crypto’s Risks to Financial Stability.
11,196 Years Jail Sentence for Faruk Özer, CEO of Collapsed Turkish Crypto Exchange Thodex.
Bitcoin worth $128 million sent to exchanges.
FED Statement on Stablecoins!
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Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
🚨 Bitcoin Ready to Fall Again🚨⏰(1-Hour)⏰✅As I expected in the post a few hours ago, Bitcoin was able to break the Resistance line(1) and reach the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.👇
🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin managed to complete the Double Three Correction(WXY) waves at the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and the Resistance line(2) .
💡Also, we can see a Regular Divergence(RD-) between Volume and Price between two consecutive Peaks .
🔔I expect Bitcoin to come back below the Resistance line(1) in the coming hours, and this time it is likely to break the 🟢 Support zone($25,840_$25,600) 🟢.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Pay attention to VIX. Big gap upwards for BTC.On today's analysis we compare Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to the Volatility Index (VIX) on the 1W time-frame. An often neglected instrument, which measures the market volatility (decline = risk on conditions, increase = tension), VIX has been trading within a Channel Down for the past 12 months. Almost for the same period of time, BTC has been trading within a Channel Up, showcasing the negative correlation of the two instruments, as a decline on VIX favors investment on risky assets.
Naturally, if this trend continues on VIX, Bitcoin should extend its Channel Up. Even more so, we can notice a big divergence in the past 3 weeks, with VIX on 3 red candles having tested the June - July Support Zone, while BTC is on 3 flat red ones at the bottom of its Channel and June Support Zone. As you can see the gap to fil is almost a respectable $5000.
But what do you think? Will it catch up to VIX and even more so break higher, if the Volatility Index declines on new Lows? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Classic Bullish Pattern ₿
Bitcoin is stuck on 25200 - 25500 horizontal support for 3 consecutive weeks.
With the last 2 tests of that, the price formed a double bottom pattern.
The neckline of the pattern was broken with a bullish engulfing candle.
We may expect a bullish movement now at least to 27000 level.
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BITCOIN The importance of the 1W MA50 for reaching $250k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains under heavy bearish pressure for almost 2 months, making market participants anxious to say the least. In times like this, it is always best not to lose sight of the bigger picture and look for clues on the wider time-frames. This chart is on the 1W time-frame and illustrates a very unique pattern that splits BTC's historic price action into 4 phases that can potentially not only reveal the next cyclical Top but also give us an idea whether the recent correction can endanger the new Bull Cycle or not. This is practically the framework of a previous study we've conducted but we some new updates.
** The Two Phases **
As you see, the Cycles are divided into Bear-to-Bear (blue) and Bull (green) Phases. The Bear-to-Bear begins at the start of the Bear Cycle and ends at the bottom of the next Bear Cycle. The Bull Phase starts on that bottom and ends at the top before the Bear begins. We are currently on the new Bull Phase, which in accordance to the previous Bull Phase, the price is pulling back (ellipse shape) through consolidation towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) that is technically the long-term Support during this part of the Cycle.
The 1W RSI has been pulling back after turning overbought since April, similar to what happened on December 14 2015. It is easy to understand that the 1W MA50 is the most critical Support right now as it never broke downwards during the previous Bull Phase. Technically we have to assume that as long as it holds, BTC remains on a long-term bullish trend.
** The RSI symmetry **
The 1W RSI is particularly helpful when it comes to mapping those Phases and identifying identical spots in time, as the symmetry between Phases is astounding. The Cycle Top is easily revealed by the RSI, followed by Lower Highs that drive it to an oversold state, where investors can start buying again. Another distinct characteristic is the Overbought Volatility of the RSI as the price rises within its Bull Phase.
Technically the RSI remains on a bullish trend as it just hit this week the Higher Lows trend-line that started after its bottom. This is again a similar behavioral pattern as with the previous Bull Phase and the Higher Lows test in February 2016. If the 1W MA50 is indeed the long-term Support again, then we should see the 1W RSI bouncing now on this Higher Lows trend-line and approach the overbought territory by the end of the year.
** The Cyclical Pivot **
What is perhaps the most important part of this cheat-sheet, is the Cyclical Pivot trend-line. That starts at the bottom of the Bear-to-Bear Phase, supports all the way and then gets broken near the start of the Bull Phase. The key attribute is that when BTC hit it again on December 11 2017, the Bull Phase's Top was formed. As a result, we can argue that when BTC hits the new Cyclical Pivot trend-line again, we could have the new cyclical Top.
** The Fibonacci Time levels and Halvings **
Since the Phases appear to be getting longer, we can use metrics that incorporate this sense of proportionality, such as the Fibonacci Time Zones. The first Bull Phase peaked just after Fib Time extension 1.8. Halving 1 was a little before the middle (Fib 0.5) of the Bear-to-Bear Phase, while Halving 2 was at the middle of the Bull Phase. On the last Bear-to-Bear Phase, Halving 3 was almost on its middle. If the nw Bull Phase extends as long as Fib 1.8, then Halving 4 will also fall exactly on its middle. Indeed an interesting symmetry, a behavioral pattern that BTC often follows.
We can expect the new Bull Phase to last up to 187 weeks (1309) days, which is where the 1.8 Fibonacci Time extension is. If so then it is possible to hit the Cyclical Pivot trend-line at a price of $400k by January 2026. If it is as long as the previous Bull Phase, i.e. at least 152 weeks (1064 days), then by that time a technical contact with the Cyclical Pivot can be at around $250k.
That's at least how the model develops itself so far, but what do you think? Can the 1W MA50 hold and lead BTC to at least a $250000 new Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Needs to break the 1W MA100 to confirm bullish extensionBitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding after hitting the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the June 12 1W candle, which provided a rise. Technically on the 1W time-frame, the trend has been neutral basically with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) as the Resistance, having the July 10 rejection. In fact, the 1W MA100 has been unbroken ever since the May 02 2022 bearish break-out that started the final and more aggressive decline of the Bear Cycle. If BTC reclaims it, technically it should turn into Support until the next Bear Cycle.
At the same time the price continues to respect the 1M Support/ Resistance Zones, which is part of an analysis we conducted in June. The Resistance Zone (red), was previously a Support in 2022 having closed all 1M candles up to April 2022 above it, despite some large wicks that broke much lower but where bought back aggressively in the end. That Support Zone is now the new Resistance Zone, in a similar way as the Resistance Zone of July - August 2022 (green) is now the new Support.
The 1W MA50 is within that Support Zone, in a similar way the 1W MA100 is trading within the Resistance Zone. All this while the 1W RSI is within a Channel DOwn since it hit the 70.00 Overbought barrier on April 10 but is close to the Higher Lows trend-line of June 2022, which is the current Cycle's Support.
As a result, the price is currently within a huge Neutral Zone that although based on the 1M candles closings, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100, will be the first bullish break-out signal towards 45900 - 48500, which is the next Resistance Zone ahead and our medium-term target.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin break above the 1W MA100 (Resistance) or the 1W MA50 (Support)? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Grayscale prevails against SEC! Ready for +30% rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is already more than +5% for the day after Grayscale prevailed against the U.S. SEC in a historic ruling over the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot Bitcoin ETF in a lawsuit. This legal win could be a pivotal step towards having the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF authorized in the United States.
Technically the price reclaimed the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with ease after breaking below it 12 days ago. A 1D candle closing above it would confirm this sentiment. After all, the August 22 low was exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, making a Higher Low sequence. On top of that, the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross, the 4th such formation these months.
As a result, BTC has both the fundamental and technical backing for a new medium-term rally. The previous two rallies to a Higher High have been around +29% so we are expecting at least $32500. Interestingly enough they both took only (around) 30 days to be completed since their bottoms (Higher Lows).
But what do you think? Is this the start of a new +30% rally for Bitcoin or just a fake-out move based on news? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin is getting Ready to Break the 🟢Support Zone🟢(15Min)💡After coming below the Resistance Line , Bitcoin violated the scenario of re-attacking the 🔴 Resistance Zone($26,980-$26,350) 🔴.
📎Bitcoin has formed a Descending Channel in the last few hours.
🌊In terms of the structure of Elliott waves , Bitcoin is completing its 5 descending waves inside the descending channel so that the 3rd wave was completed in the lower line of the descending channel.
🌊Bitcoin is currently completing wave 4 .
🌊Most likely, wave 4 will be completed in 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🔔I expect wave 5 to be completed below the 🟢 support zone($25,870-$25,720) 🟢.
📚 Educational Tip : When wave is extended, wave 1 and wave 5 tend toward size equality ( 100% ) or 61.8% relation.
📚 Educational Tip : Since the structure of wave 2 was simple ( Zigzag ), we can expect the structure of waves in wave 4 to be Complex or Triangle (time break).
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🌐➕ Positive News ➕🌐:
Whales and Sharks Accumulated $300 Million in BTC Since the Mid-August Crypto Crash.
Bitcoin (BTC) Should Hit $135,000 After Halving, Says Pantera Capital.
Bitfinex Turkey offers zero-cost deposits via local banking giant.
Ripple Emerges Among Top 100 Companies That Care About Employees.
🌐➖ Negative News ➖🌐:
Bitcoin (BTC) Will Crash Like the Stock Market in 1930, Bloomberg Analyst Predicts.
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Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
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