BITCOIN being pumped after China bonds macro cycle bottomIt is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the green trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
It is however the first time we add stocks (S&P500 with the blue trend-line) in the mix. We can see the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio as illustrated by the Sine Waves. Every time it bottoms, BTC and stocks bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see how the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on both Bitcoin and the stock market.
Since the bond yields ratio is already rallying hard with BTC/ stocks following, do you think that this is just the beginning? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN The next leg up can reach $40000Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to follow the pattern of February - June 2019. The consolidation on the Higher Lows 1 has now been succeeded by a consolidation on Higher Lows 2. On June 10 2019 that started the final rally, roughly symmetrical to the one that took the price from Higher Lows 1 to Higher Lows 2 (+75%), to the HKEX:13900 peak.
If BTC continues to replicate this, then the current Higher Lows 2 should give way to a +48% rise that can take the price to $40000.
Is this how high the next leg up can go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Will Bitcoin drop to $1,000 check ithello traders what do you think on bitcoin this is on monthly chart .many are expecting it to a 100k of course the fundamentals hold the prediction when it comes to long term than the technical but still for any market to be efficient it need to balance the book what is your thought on it let me know in the comment .
Bitcoin : Bulls are losing momentumSome divergence we are seeing on the higher time frame and it looks like that I will enter short position right after the price breaks below the support trend line anticipated. Also watch the area of .382 Fibonacci retracement level which is having an alignment with the strong support at $26700 level.
BITCOIN Don't sleep on this MegaphoneThe Megaphone pattern you see on this 1W chart certainly doesn't get enough attention as other, most cyclical and systemic patterns prevail. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) however has formed a similar structure during the previous Bull Cycle, right after the first rally top.
The moment that pattern broke to the upside (Fibonacci 1.0), the price spent as much time from the bottom (Fib 0.5) as the bottom did from the start (Fib 0.0). On the current pattern the bottom is on the November 07 2022 1W candle and that gives a projected break-out above the Megaphone on the week of June 03 2024. That isn't at all unrealistic as it times very well with the next Halving 4 event (scheduled on March 2024), which is the supply shock event that historically boosts BTC's price into the most aggressive Parabolic Rallies.
Do you think this pattern is of any importance? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Keep it simple. 1W RSI above 70 = rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame is about to see its RSI break above the 70.00 overbought barrier. A simplistic yet reliable historical way of viewing the current situation is that every time the RSI broke above this level, BTC was either starting a mega Parabolic Rally or was in the middle of a smaller rally. On five occasions the rallies were very aggressive, on four there were less, the kind of rallies we see at the start of a Bull Cycle.
What is it going to be this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN has started riding 'The Bollinger Wave'. Fullspeed rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) is witnessing a strong green week, following three straight weeks of flat price action that got many questioning the strength and durability of the rally since the start of the year. A simple indicator comes to give the answer on the 1W time-frame. It is the Bollinger Bands that display a very distinct characteristic during BTC rallies (similarly during downtrends as well).
We call that "The Bollinger Wave" and it is the upper Bollinger Band (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame that Bitcoin rides as a "wave" during a Bull Rally. The chart on the left shows the last two such rallies, with the current being the 3rd one as the price has been "riding" the upper Bollinger since the week of January 16.
The chart on the right shows all such rallies since 2010. It is easily noticeable that when such rallies start there is now easy or quick stop to them and they are supported by the Bollinger's Basis (orange trend-line). This is the exact same trend-line that offered the strong rebound of March 6th.
How high the current rally can go before getting exhausted is anybody's guess but two things are a fact: a) It has only just started and b) the Bollinger Basis has risen to 22435 and is now the long-term Support.
So what do you think? Will Bitcoin continue to "ride the Bollinger wave"? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- 30k next?Since 3 weeks, Bitcoin is consolidating in a range that is becoming tighter and tighter and formed a symmetrical triangle on our chart.
There are great chances for an up break and in such an instance the most obvious target for bulls is the 30k zone.
The medium-term trend is clearly up and only a drop under the 27k zone would put a pause on this tendency.
28k could be a good price for buying with an acceptable risk:reward
BITCOIN, NASDAQ, DXY all on Huge Pivot Zones! Tick tack..With the high degree of correlation among financial assets, it is not a coincidence that Bitcoin (BTCUUSD), Nasdaq (NDX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) all are on Huge Pivot Zone, the behavior of which is more likely going to determine the trend for the next several months.
Bitcoin's Pivot Zone has been in effect since January 2021 and is just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Nasdaq's has been in effect since May 2021 and is also just above the 0.382 Fib. DXY's has been in effect since May 2022 and is right on the 0.5 Fib.
All are on the opposite side of their 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and their Cycle trend-line, indicating that it has been a while since the break-out hence the trend change from bearish to bullish (for Bitcoin and Nasdaq) and vice versa (for the DXY). The one with the biggest potential (downside) is the DXY as it is the only one having not touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) yet. This should have a sizeable bullish impact on both Bitcoin and Nasdaq.
So are all three assets on those Pivot Zone at the same time by coincidence? Will a DXY break lead the other two? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC DOMINANCE Massive alt season about to start?According to the BTC Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D), a huge alt season may be upon us if the Rectangle that has been ranging in since May 2021, breaks to the downside. The pattern is quite similar to April 2014 - June 2016. That was when Bitcoin (orange trend-line) was in a Bear Cycle and on September 2015 it was coming off of it. It appears that we might be where that fractal was around December 2015.
Is investing in alts a good idea here?
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BITCOIN Is 300k the true potential of this Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't backing down, withstanding to perfection so far any noise in the stock market, a development that establishes that its new Bull Cycle is well underway. Having broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and what will most likely be the 4th straight weekly closing above it, we can see that it is testing (and so far struggling to break) the key former Support of the Bear Cycle (Fibonacci 1.0).
The previous Cycle made an aggressive rally to the 2.0 Fib extension after it broke above the Bear Cycle's Support (Fib 1.0) and peaked 28 weeks after the bottom. In an amazing act of symmetry, we see that these last two Bear Cycles lasted for 52 weeks each. Since so far the moves are proportional, we cannot easily dismiss the probability of this '1st Rally Phase' being also 28 weeks and reaching as high as the 2.0 Fib, which is a little over $53k.
Beyond this, a year of basically ranged trading wouldn't be unrealistic, until the Halving 4 event (which is programmed for March 2024) that will inflict a huge supply shock and as it did in May 2020, initiate the final, mega parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle. That part of the previous Cycle, from the time BTC reached the 0.2 Fib until its November 2021 peak, lasted 124 weeks. The peak was achieved a little under the 5.0 Fibonacci extension.
A repeat of makes $300000 by October 2025 a plausible target. Does this reveal Bitcoin's true potential for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN About to wave goodbye to 30k for good if broken?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of a critical breakthrough on the 1W time-frame. The former Support of the first half of the Bear Cycle is around 30k and is currently being tested. History has shown that when this level gets tested as a Resistance and breaks during the start of a new Bull Cycle, it never gets retested (cannot count the irregularity of a once in 100 years event like the COVID pandemic in March 2020.
At the same time time, when it breaks the 9°Lower Highs trend-line, the Parabolic Rally starts and doesn't look back. All this while the 1W LMACD is on perfect symmetry with the previous Support tests.
Are we about to wave 'bye bye' to 30k for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders gives historic bull runs!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of completing a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on a bullish slope. This has historically been extremely bullish for BTC. For reference, we post the most recent such formation (June - August 2021) and the whole 2017 Parabolic Rise which contained 5 similar patterns. The technical target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little over $38000.
Do you think that's BTC's immediate target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN So much for Resistances...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another Resistance level, this time the Lower Lows Pivot trend-line that started from the Lower Lows of the Bear Cycle. When this happened during the previous Cycle in early May 2019, BTC skyrocketed to the next Pivot trend-line (upper dashed) and consolidated there before the next one (dotted). Of course the fundamentals aren't the same, and Bitcoin doesn't have the Libra euphoria to ride but still this technical symmetry is an indication.
Notice also now correlated the LMACD sequences are. Both bottomed around the same (2D tf) level at -0.18 to -0.16 and faced Resistance above the 0.00 mark on the previous Highs. Do you expect Bitcoin to continue rising and hit the next Pivot trend-line around $39000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN What happens if 30k breaks?A lot of market participants are calling for a firm end to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) rally around the 30k mark. Who can blame them? Bitcoin has been on a very aggressive rally since the start of the year with its price in the low 16000s at the time. As we pointed out at an earlier analysis however, the breaking and closing of a 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), set in motion the 2nd phase of this rally towards $30000.
** Former Support Zone turned into Resistance **
This is the level that most are afraid of and rightly so as the broader range of 29500 - 32500 is the former Support Zone (now Resistance) of the Bear Cycle, the Zone that initially supported the first sell-off and closed all candles above it for many months. When it finally gave in in May 2022, BTC entered the 2nd, most aggressive but final phase of the Bear Cycle. In fact, such Zones were present in BTC's previous Cycles. The Resistance Zone in 2019 was within 5800 - 6200 while in 2015 with 350 - 410.
** The 0.5 Fibonacci **
What's perhaps more important than this Zone itself, is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level since the Cycle's top. On the current Cycle that's at $32800. In these past two Cycles, when Bitcoin closed a 1W candle above the 0.5 Fib, the price rallied and hit the 0.786 Fib in 6 and 8 weeks respectively! The 0.786 Fib on the current Cycle is at $50000.
But why do we give more weight to the 0.5 Fib instead of the Resistance Zone around the 30k mark? Because even though in the previous Cycle on the week May 06 2019, BTC broke above it and aggressively extended the rally, in the Cycle before on the week of November 02 2015, it broke (even above the 0.5 Fib) but got sold massively only to close the 1W candle back below it. As a result, a closing above the 0.5 Fib would be a more accurate signal.
Notice also that by the time the post 0.5 Fib rally reached the 0.786 level and peaked, the 1W RSI was at or slightly above 80.00 (obviously massively overbought). A strong medium-term sell/ take profit signal.
But what do you think will happen if 30k breaks? Will it rally to 50k and the 0.786 Fibonacci or pull-back and and consolidate for a multi-week period until it does so? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN closed below the 4H MA50 and can drop lowerBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with both the 4H RSI and MACD under their neutral limit. This indicates short-term weakness and as with the February 05 and February 22 4H MA50 break-outs, we may see a re-test of the 4H MA50 as a Resistance where a new rejection may cause a bigger pull-back.
The previous two break-outs made a Lower Low within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. Of course the March 10 low on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) took place in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, a fundamental event outside of the technical sphere. Better us the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the targeted Support, by early next week it should be within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fib Zone.
The 4H RSI also has a clear Support Zone. Technically a Low within 25300 - 25000 seems a fair technical value with a Higher High at 30000, representing a solid short-term target. Do you also think such a pull-back would be healthy at this stage? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cycle comparison and how China bonds initiate new Bull!This is not the first time we incorporate the Chinese bond yields element (CN02Y/CN20Y) to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, but it is the first time we do so in such an illustrative way by displaying all Cycles from a common starting point. We have made a case in the past how strong of a correlation the Chinese bond market has with Bitcoin and how efficiently that can predict its Cycles.
As you see on the chart, each Cycle portrays a certain period: Red = Cycle 1 -2 (2010 - 2014), Blue = Cycle 2 - 3 (2015 - 2018) and Orange = Cycle 3 - 4 (2019 - now). The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is displayed in Grey. A key characteristic is that all Cycles have a common start, the bottom of the previous one. We see the effect of diminishing returns as each Cycle is less aggressive (naturally) from the previous one.
We also see the strong connection with CN02Y/CN20Y, as when the ratio starts declining, BTC enters a Bear Cycle, and once the ratio starts rising, BTC initiates a Bull Cycle. Right now it appears that we are at the point where the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio typically peaks and consolidates, which for BTC is translated to the time it breaks above its 1W MA50 and practically starts a new aggressive rally, the first of the new Bull Cycle.
Based on this model, Bitcoin should extend the rally it started this year. Do you agree? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is repeating late January. Small rise and consolidation Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in terms of RSI and MACD on the 4H time-frame, is replicating the formations of late January. We have applied the Pitchfork tool since January's Low and is shows a highly accurate pattern whose Fibonacci levels form Resistance/ Support lines.
The 4H MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross and on January 20 that was the start of a mini price jump before a 3-week consolidation. This is portrayed by the green Rectangle. As long as the 4H MA50 holds (blue trend-line), it is not unlikely to see another mini pump. The Support is located within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibs, assuming it follows January's sequence.
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BTCUSD consequtive analysis. UpdatePlease see linked ideas for more context.
❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
📉 Text marks:
🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL.
🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse.
🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse.
🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup.
🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation.
🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action.
BITCOIN $50000 is a realistic target by November!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) satisfied those that kept comparing the 2022/23 Cycle to the 2014/15 one as after the a clear rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded on the Cyclical Lower Highs trend-line and since last week it closed above it as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This symmetry is remarkable and it doesn't stop here. Right now we are 101 weeks after the Cycle's true technical top on the week of April 12 2021. Notice that the 2nd week following the first 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 in 2015 was on the October 26 2015 candle. That was 100 weeks after the Cycle Top!
If this amazing symmetry continues to hold, then we can expect BTC to reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level in 33 weeks from now, i.e. on the 1W candle of November 06 2023. That gives an exact target of $50000.
Do you think this pattern will hold until then? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The cyclical cycle continues (Part 2)Take look at part 1 first below :
Bitcoin is starting to make big moves and even though I think we have seen this move mostly play out already , this is only the beginning of a much larger shift to the upside.
Last TA I presented this Bitcoin model with time markers showing that the cycle is in fact repeating in time and patterns , this analysis will be going over what could happen the rest of the year if we carry on mirroring.
If we take a look at the main chart we can see that Bitcoin is printing a weekly candle very similar to 2019 after the cycle low was in.
The question is now if this is the start of a relief rally then where does it top out? This is where we will be using the Gann Fan , for price to reach all time high again price must break the last Gann band which is marked as 8/1.
Last cycle we had a perfect 8/1 hit at 14k that signalled the top of the relief rally at 13.8k and once we broke the 8/1 Gann years later the bull market started.
So if the cycle keeps mirroring we have a top somewhere between 4/1 or 8/1 which would be anything from 38k-51k Bitcoin. The rally will only last about 140-160 days this time estimate based on previous cycles , so would put a top sometime late June 2023.
That's it folks 140 days you have because if we get close to the 8/1 Gann come June 2023 and we start getting divergence , I will be extremely bearish, that will confirm to me that there is a very high chance we have a second capitulation event that marks Bitcoin signature marco double bottom.
Bitcoin always puts in a double bottom before hitting all time highs and they always happen around Halving , sometimes it's before , sometimes it's after but it happens every cycle.
Sometime between November 2023 and the next Halving which is in March 2024 we could expect a big crash that takes out all the way back down to 15.5k , it is at this moment which I will flip extremely bullish and go all in.
So now we go over the most important piece of evidence that we have , the USDT dominance chart :
This chart has been amazing in 2022 catching all the big moves in the market and all year I have been waiting for this marco (White)support line to break.
It finally broke and this is the primary reason why this pump is not like the rest and why you should be paying attention because it's time to prepare.
At the bottom of this marco channel we find Bitcoin tops and at top of it we find Bitcoin bottoms , we have never closed out of this channel , in June and Nov 2022 there were two major crashes in Bitcoin and the USDT dominance hit exactly the same level and never closed out of the channel.
These are the facts , this channel is golden , using this macro and micro channel we know where we are in the cycle and what moves are coming next.
Last TA we knew that the chances were very high of a upside move based on the rising wedge that USDT D was in .
Rising wedge broke and Bitcoin shot up , USDT D one step ahead time and time again.
This is why I said at the start this move is most likely done because we reached the bottom of this micro channel .
This micro channel is where Bitcoin likes to form a base and consolidate before a much larger move , which could take anything between 30-45 days.
So is anybody ready for a move to 48k? I don't think so most of the market is in disbelief with nearly 1 billion dollars in short liquidations.
Since I got into this space it has been "over" for Bitcoin more times than I can count and every single time Bitcoin finds a way to shock you and fight back , this cycle it will be no different.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible"
Satoshi Nakamoto
BITCOIN Knocking on the massive 2-year Liquidity Zone's door.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week the first 1W candle above the 1W MA50 since March 2022, ending a full year of intense selling pressure. This closing opens up enormous long-term bullish possibilities as the new Bull Cycle has just started and the first challenge is the massive Cycle Liquidity Zone (green range) that goes back to January 2021!
As you see this zone, which sits around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and within the 0.382 - 0.618 Fib range, has provided long-term Support three times but when 2 straight 1W candles closed below Fib 0.5, it turned into Supply and opened the way for the May-June 2022 collapse.
It is easy to understand therefore the importance of this Cyclical Zone. BTC is about to enter it and most likely will test Fib 0.5 (32750) and provide us with the direction. A double candle closing above it, could be what fuels Bitcoin to even higher Highs. Don't neglect also the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which most likely will be on the 0.5 Fib by the time of a potential test.
It is worth noting that all the time the Liquidity Zone was tested, were with the Supertrend indicator in red. This time the indicator is in green, showing that Bitcoin has indeed started a new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think this Liquidity Zone test has in store for Bitcoin? Will it be bullish or bearish? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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