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BITCOIN recorded the 3rd worst month ever! Bull or bear sign?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just recorded its third worst monthly closing in history amid high uncertainty not in just the crypto market but in the global economy as well, as the negative macro-economic outlook doesn't show signs of reversal yet. This chart is (naturally) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame and as you see, the June candle closed on a -37.32% loss, with only February 2014 (-38.87%) and August 2011 (-38.58%) having recorded worse monthly losses. That said, it tied September 2011 for the 3rd spot. With the exception of the first Cycle in 2011, which was the shortest one, such huge red monthly candles tend to form either at the very start of a Bear Cycle or exactly at the end of it where the bottom gets formed. For the current Bear Cycle (having that peculiar top in April 2021, slightly lower than November 2021), this is the second -30% candle. The first was the May 2021 (-35.38%) slightly after the Cycle Top. With the current candle coming a full year after that, it appears that the chances of that being near the bottom of the Bear Cycle and not the start are far greater. Especially considering the fact that the 1M RSI is trading exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line that has made three contacts prior to that. But what do you think? Do you feel this -37.32% monthly candle is starting a Cycle far worse than thought or it is close/ at the bottom of it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
22
BITCOIN An overlooked pattern and a Bearish CrossBitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy volatility as ever since the June 18 Low, the price attempted a short-term rebound only to be rejected on the 4H MA100. An overlooked parallel lines pattern as well as a Bearish Cross may give as a clue to where we are compared to the bottom of the previous Cycle. ** The peculiar pattern ** First of all, see the parallel trend-lines on this 1D chart. Those are of Higher Lows and Higher Highs. In 2018/19, Bitcoin had 4 perfect touches on the Higher Highs on its way to the final flush sequence of the Bear Cycle. Then had two contacts on the Higher Lows trend-line. The same pattern had the exact same amount of contacts made (4) on the Higher Highs and so far 1 on the Higher Lows. ** The CCI and RSI bottom sequences ** On top of that, the 1D CCI (black line) and RSI (light blue line) have formed sequences similar to the December 2018 bottom. This was the first contact on the Higher Lows trend-line of our pattern. Can a second and final contact be in hand here? Very possible especially if the price gets rejected on the 1D MA50 (one fake-out) as in 2018/ early 2019. ** The Bearish Cross ** Last but not least, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) broke today below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). Last time that happened was on December 30 2018, exactly after the first rebound on that Cycle's bottom. With all those indicators aligned perfectly to show that in comparison to 2018, BTC is currently past the Bottom, could it be the case that one last Higher Lows contact confirms this overlooked pattern? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
13
BITCOIN DOMINANCE giving us the right rally signalThis is an offer overlooked metric. The symbol BTC.D which represents the percentage of Market Cap BTC Dominance can be a reliable indicator for Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) long-term moves on a Cycle scale. As this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, during the previous Bitcoin Cycle (pane below displayed in orange), the rally coincided with the BTC.D breaking above its 1W MA100 (red trend-line). On June 12 BTC.D approached it but fell sharply again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), finding Support on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now the price is attempting another rebound, compared to late 2018 we can be anywhere within October - early December 2018, meaning that such volatility may be indicative of one last bottom before entering the new Bull Cycle. Regardless of that, crypto investors with patience in their mind can wait for the right opportunity to buy when the Bitcoin Dominance closes a week above the 1W MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by TradingShot
4
BITCOIN Scenarios for recovery based on previous Cycle bottomsFollowing the high interest that my most recent analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cycles comparison attracted, I decided to make one in the same tone on possible rebound scenarios based on the previous Cycle bottoms. Before I begin, I want to make clear that this work is based on the assumption that the current bottom was priced two weeks ago or at least that it will be formed soon as long as the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) holds. This analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame and I've divided it into four charts, each having a 'bars pattern' fractal of the first rally following a bottom, applied on the current price action. Apart from the obvious Cycle bottom fractals of Nov 14 2011 - Jan 02 2012 (black bars), Jan 12 2015 - Nov 02 2015 (red bars) and Dec 10 2018 - June 24 2019 (green bars), I've also included the recovery from the COVID crash of March 16 2020 - August 17 2020 (grey bars). Obviously the aggressive and highly volatile nature of the first BTC Cycle (black) projects a sharp recovery of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by August, which under the current macro conditions seems unrealistic. Same goes for the March-Aug 2020 fractal (grey), which also has it by the end of August. The 2015 fractal (red) has this target hit by early April 2023 and is the most pessimistic of all, while the remaining Dec-June 2019 (green) offers a more moderate projection by expecting a 1W MA50 contact by November 2022. It is interesting to mention though that March-Aug 2020 is the only one that shows rejection and consolidation under the 1W MA50 for 2.5 months before a break higher a scenario that would be realistic too as the 1W MA50 is the initial Resistance of Cycles as they transition from Bear to Bull markets. Below is an illustration of all fractals on top of each other: As mentioned above, all these are mere projections based on past data. What matters most now is seeing the 1W MA300 hold and make all weekly candles that follow, close above it in order to maintain buying accumulation. Failure to do so, can make the price test the 13000 level as illustrated on a previous Fibonacci analysis. So based on the original bottom assumption, which fractal do you feel offers the most realistic projection of a recovery? Or you think the bottom is way past the 1W MA300? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
23
BITCOIN Consistent to previous Cycles. The ultimate comparisonThis is a complete mapping of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first) all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The current Bear Phase is the longest in history, as so far it is 4 weeks longer (time-frame is on the 1W) than Cycle 4. ** Halvings ** It is well known that the Halvings are the catalysts in each Cycle that start its most aggressive part, the Parabolic Rally. The next one is projected for March 2024. This could mean that we may have almost 2 years of limited action and volatility (in Bitcoin terms) until the real rally begins. Of course this doesn't mean that the All Time High won't break until then, most likely it will and most likely a strong mini-rally may follow after its bottom is achieved. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. Right now it is converging to Cycle 4 and if it is modelled after Cycle 3, the price will most likely turn sideways for the next two months in an attempt to converge and make contact with Cycle 4. This delay is because, as I've first mentioned in the crypto space, the current Bear Market is the 'smoothest' in history. In conclusion, Bitcoin tends to follow the steps of the previous Cycles. A bottom here is very likely, as is a smooth sideways transition to September and Q3. Depending on the global macro-economic conditions in the markets, we should re-evaluate at the time, as a favorable environment may give a rally similar to February - June 2019, while a negative environment (depression) may break the model downwards. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might bottom and trend in the future? Is Cycle 3 the greatest fit for the current one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
58
BITCOIN The Resistance that every Cycle broke to start the rallyFollowing the 'back to basics' analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the reminder that the Parabolic Growth Channel is still dictating its long-term cyclical trend, I thought it would be useful to extend it a bit with new parameters. ** The Parabolic Rally and Bear Cycle Resistance elements ** As you see, I've incorporated new measurements on Each Cycle, namely the Parabolic Rally (green) measuring the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle and the Bear Cycle Resistance (red), which is the Lower Highs trend-line that keeps all price action (practically the whole Bear Cycle) below it until it breaks and the Bull phase starts. ** Angles' symmetry ** What those factors show is that each move holds a certain symmetry. Every Parabolic Rally has so far been roughly on a 60° angle (or at least this is on my chart adjustments, if yours are different it will change but again the angle will change proportionally on all trend-lines). Similarly, the Bear Cycle Resistance has been approximately on a 25° angle. We can see that this analogy held perfectly for the previous Parabolic Rally (October 2020 - April 2021) therefore enabling us to assume that the pattern could continue for the Bear Cycle Resistance. I have applied that Resistance and this gives us a slight idea of when to take a confirmed Buy position once it breaks after the bottom is priced and the trend starts moving upwards again. As you see, the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level from Cycle Top to previous Cycle Bottom, has always been a good estimation as to where the new Cycle may price its Low and right now we are trading exactly around it. ** Cycles comparison ** Also, for better illustration purposes and a cleaner comparison, I've put all prior Bear Cycles (including the current one) on top of each other, drawing the same Bear Cycle Resistance. You can see with this analogy just how proportionate each phase is and how close the bottom might be. So do you find this approach useful? Based on that are you willing to buy now or after the Resistance breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
BITCOIN On Max Fear territory. Time to buy?This feels like a 'back to basics' chart for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as I'm displaying the classic Parabolic Growth Channel but given the amount of negativity in the market, it might be the perfect time to look back into it. First we all know that the 1W MA200 broke last week and the ultimate MA that supports the Parabola is the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is now around 16650. This analysis is on the 1M time-frame though with the 1M MA50 being displayed as the blue trend-line. ** The Parabolic Channel ** As far as the Parabolic Channel is concerned, we can see that since last week the price entered its Growth Zone. That is the territory within the bottom and the dotted line that acted as a Resistance during the Accumulation Phases of 2012, mid 2015 - 2016 and early 2019. As you see on the chart when a monthly (1M) candle enters this Zone, the action has always been a Buy historically. ** The LMACD and RSI ** Perhaps the most interesting aspect on the monthly chart is the LMACD that is about to touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle it has been trading in since the beginning. That is the Triangle that I've coined years ago as the pattern leading to Diminishing Returns and lower volatility. On this month it appears that the LMACD has entered into its 2-month Max Fear territory, which is always before it reverses. Also the 1M RSI indicator just hit the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since the start. Both previous Lower Lows have coincided with BTC's Cycle Bottoms. To conclude this, the current monthly candle (June) looks like the capitulation candles of January 2015 and November 2018 that shaped the bottoms of the previous two Bear Cycles. Whether there is some more room left to drop to the 1W MA300 or the June 2019 High (to make contact with the bottom of the Parabolic Channel), by all historic indicators this looks like a favorable Risk/ Reward level to buy for long-term investors. But what do you think? Do you treat this Max Fear time in the market as a Buy opportunity? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
Pinpointing the Cycle BottomPinpointing the cycle bottom is pretty much impossible but we will give it a go anyways. This Gann Fan you see on the chart has had amazing reactions in the past : 1. Covid crash bottom hit 8/1 Gann perfectly 2. Covid weekly candles closing on 3/1 Gann 3. Price hovering over 2/1 Gann before starting the bullrun. Amazing reactions last couple of years so hopefully we can still use it as a template for things to come. So I have narrowed down a possible timeframe and price where Bitcoin could bottom , somewhere inside this red circle price could find a cycle bottom, between 14k -16.5k. Could we wick lower than the 3/1 Gann yes but to close under it I highly doubt it. Also there is a Fib Date coming up week of 18th July 2022 , last two times we had moves to the upside infact the last one was amazing and pinpointing that massive pivot up last july.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
GOLD/BTC ratio Time to sell Gold and buy Bitcoin again?This is one of the most accurate ratios in the book for the the two assets. Practically last time we updated this on October 30 2020, it helped us catch the exact time that Bitcoin started its parabolic rise (when it was close to testing the 2017 ATH) and began to outperform Gold heavily once again: Right now the price of GOLD-to-BTC ratio is yet again very close to its Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 2015 High. At the same time the 1W RSI of the ratio is being rejected near its own Higher Highs trend-line that started on that date as well. What's very interesting is when we add the DXY (green trend-line) to the mix. You can clearly see that the ratio's big sell-offs took place when the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) topped and started to fall sharply as well. It is obvious that a cheaper USD favors the riskier nature of Bitcoin against Gold. What do you think is going to happen next? Is this an early signal that we should start converting Gold to Bitcoin again? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN Ultimate Buy Signal just flashed on 2WAs analyzed on our previous post, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is the line that formed the bottom during the March 2020 COVID flash crash as well as August 2015. This time the strongest Buy Signal flashes one time-frame higher, where on the 2W chart the RSI reached the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since it first started trading. This trend-line formed the bottoms on all three previous BTC Cycles. A confirmed buy would be when the RSI breaks above its MA (yellow line), which just so happens to match the 1D MA100 (blue trend-line) break-outs on prior Cycles. That is the earliest buy signal the market gives before it starts a rally and the new Bull Cycle. Also watch that the price is approaching the 1.75 Fibonacci extension from the High of the first BTC Cycle (June 2011). While the 2nd Cycle marginally broke below the 1.25 Fib extension before making its Bottom, the 3rd Cycle didn't hit its +0.25 ext i.e. 1.5 Fib. This is consistent with the Theory of lower volatility over time during each Epoch as the price stability is achieved through maturity and higher adoption. Is this signal enough to make you buy on the current levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BTC New Entries + Exits (Best Reverse Strat Ever)The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately. All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated! How to play my chart: Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there. The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ExclusivelyFX
18
BITCOIN Getting closer to the 1W MA300. Short-term perspective.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a historic first in Cyclical terms as it broke yesterday the Top of the previous Cycle (Dec 2017). It did so within a Channel Down pattern on the short-term 4H time-frame. So what's next for the immediate price action? Well as long as the Channel Down is intact, BTC should trade lower within it. As I mentioned on my previous analysis, the level to look for once the 1W MA200 broke was the 1W MA300 (red trend-line on the current analysis). If broken, we can technically experience another massive sell-off to the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 12250. There are however high chances, at least from a 4H perspective, that the Channel breaks upwards as there is a bullish divergence on the RSI being on Higher Lows as opposed to the candle action being on Lower Lows. Technically, if the price closes above the Channel Down, we can expect a quick test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken, then in turn a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, which at the moment is just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension that happens to be on the last 4H Resistance (28300) before the June 12 sell-off started. Again we have to state that this is a short-term technical outlook on the price action. Right now there are fundamentals on the bigger time-frames that tend to overshadow short-term patterns. Attention and careful risk management is needed. What do you think BTC will do next? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
Bottom startingThis is the full EW analysis since 2021. Classic Zig Zag correction with over extended B wave or some may classify this as expanded flat neglecting one wave in wave A back in May 2021. We have completed the 5 waves down of wave C. Personality of the wave was confirmed with volume expansion and fear in the street. The last lower timeframe wave 5 was extended which gave a target of 16800 which is yet to come...in any case crumbles do not matters. Now we are about to flirt with the bottom of the 10 years trend. if we violate this, dark times are ahead, meaning something fundamental has changed in the space. Nevertheless, these are my expectation for the near future. The two levels to e reclaimed are the 22k and 32 k, both with clear 5 waves move. These will give the trigger signal a new cycle has started. The best entry would be on the retracement after the 5 waves move up to 22k. Now any entry is at maximum RR but it could lead to capital erosion due to SL hitting multiple times. Just play safe and wait for a clear trend reversal as these are risky times. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CFcryptoTA
1
BITCOIN The Ultimate Support Band. 1W MA300 coming into play?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. As I've mentioned numerous times, that has been the trend-line that marked the bottoms on both previous BTC Bear Cycles (all candles closed above). On this analysis, I am extending my previous publications on this Support by adding a variety of elements: 1) The 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that got hit, supported the price and initiated the rally on the March 2020 COVID crash. 2) The Mayer MA , which fits perfectly on this Support Zone charting I want to make clear with the MA200 and MA300. 3) Mapping of all previous Cycles 4) The Halvings ** The 1W MA300 ** First, it is critical to acknowledge where the 1W MA300 is. On this INDEX BTC chart, it sits around 16590. That is way below the Top of the previous Bear Cycle (19800), which if broken it will be the first time in history. If the current 1W candle closes considerably below the 1W MA200, a trader should acknowledge that as a possibility. Notice however that this is the top of the Mayer MA Support Band (green zone), which was last hit on the August 17 2015 candle. ** The Halvings can time the Bottoms ** The good news come when we incorporate the Halvings on the chart. As you see, the previous Bear Cycle bottoms have been 882 and 791 days after the previous Halving for the December 2018 and the January 2015 bottoms respectively. Or alternatively 518 and 539 days before the next Halving. Right now that creates a potential Bottom Phase within the July 04 and October 03 2022 1W candles. ** The 1W MA50/MA100 Cross ** On top of that, there is a pattern that when formed, it basically confirms that the Cycle's Bottom has been priced. That is the 1W MA50/MA100 Cross (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line)). I've analyzed that before but it fits very well on the current idea. If the MA50 and MA100 don't diverge from their current course, the Cross is projected to take place within the Bottom Phase as illustrated by the Halvings. ** Cycle mapping ** Even though the current Cycle has been an odd one, especially when thinking about its top, which not only it didn't make a blow-off top above the upper Mayer MA Zone (red zone) but also made a slightly higher top in November, it hasn't diverged much from the previous ones. As you see if we divide the Bear Cycles into phases, they all tend to follow the same pattern: a) Blue Triangle = Blow-off phase but with price still supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). b) Green Rectangle = Price consolidating, below the 1W MA50 but supported by the 1W MA100. c) Orange Channel Down = Final sell-off/ price collapsing below the 1W MA100 but finds support and contained above the 1W MA200. We are currently on Phase C. Whether or not BTC hits the 1W MA300 now or in a later stage of the new Bull Cycle, as it did on both previous Cycles (see red circles), that remains to be seen. Until then, what's your view on this complete Cycle mapping? Do you agree that we are in Phase C and if so, do you expect the 1W MA200 to support and close this week above it or make a sharp fall to the 1W MA200 if it fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
70
BITCOIN The MACD showing its a scalper's paradiseA lot of talk is being made lately on whether or not Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a bottom. Until the market shows a clear sign for that, the MACD indicator on the 4H time-frame is flashing a very reliable scalping signal. As you see, every time since late February that the 4H MACD hit or marginally went below the distant Support Zone and made a Bullish Cross, BTC turned sideways into consolidation within the 4H Bollinger Bands. So what the market is telling traders is that until BTC bottoms, good scalping opportunities exist on the short-term for those who can apply sensible risk management. Take advantage of this MACD signal. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
Mayer Multiple Extremely Rare signal!The Mayer Multiple has officially turned black! Let's go over how rare this signal truly is! October 2011 / 85days - Price 2.13 Dollars January 2015 / 9days - Price 178 Dollars December 2018 / 11days - Price 3300 Dollars Average of 35days with 2011 included without 2011 we talking about 10days average , this is by far the rarest Bitcoin oversold signal you're going to get. Now the lowest Mayer Multiple Band is 18.2k which is in line with the last CME GAP! Last time we hit the lowest band was March 2020 covid crash which tapped it perfectly! This could be the key at pinpointing the bottom. The question is when , well it could very well happen this week since bitcoin has never closed under a 200 weekly moving average. If Bitcoin did hit 18.4k close to the CME GAP then close the week above 22.3k which would be the 200 weekly. something like this playing out CME TA - Mayer TA- Mayer's ratio is at 0.55 ,very interesting times!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
BITCOIN hit the lowest 1W RSI ever! All eyes on the 1W closing!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) finally hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which as I outlined on numerous analyses previously, has been the Support and bottom formation on every Bear Cycle, hence the ultimate buy level. What's also very interesting this week though, is that the 1W RSI hit the 27.40 mark, which is the lowest ever recorded level! On the bright side, the 1W LMACD continues to form a sequence that is similar to all past Bear Cycle bottom formations. What we should be focusing now is how the current 1W (weekly) candle will close. As you see, all prior 1W MA200 tests that broke below (even marginally), they managed to recover within the same 1W candle and close the week back on the MA200. Even the March 09 2020 (COVID crash) candle that extended 1600 USD (from $5500 to $3900) below the 1W MA200, managed to close the week on it. The next few days are crucial, as the Bitcoin market is naturally affected by the disappointing performance on the stock markets that are even calling for a recession, especially if the Fed raises the interest rate more than expected. As a result, BTC investors that are looking for confirmation before buying, may do so when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In prior Cycles that has happened in the middle of the bottom/ accumulation phase, so the lower that happens the cheaper price investors can get. So what do you think? Do you deem the current 1W candle close as important as I described? Where do you expect the candle to close, below or on the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
51
BITCOIN getting closer and closer to the 1W MA200Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing a very disappointing start to this week's (1W) candle. This development however is making the price getting closer and closer to fulfil the strongest technical condition of Cyclical behavior: the bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level is now around 22290 but perhaps an even more interesting technical feat is that the current Cycle is approaching the end of the 67 week count, which is how long the previous two measured from their High to the moment the Parabolic Rally started. As you see on the chart, the Cycle that started on the December 11 2017 1W candle, ended 67 weeks after on March 25 2019, when a 13 week Rally started. The rather Phase not Cycle that started after the June 24 2019 High, also ended 67 weeks later on October 05 2020, when a 27 week (almost 2 times the previous) Rally started. The current Cycle started on the April 12 2021 High (though not the absolute High) and if it is proportionate to the previous, the 67 weeks count ends on July 25 2022. By that time, the price 'should' have made contact with the 1W MA200. The question is will the Parabolic Rally that will follow measure 13, 27 or 54 weeks (assuming that each Rally is twice as long as the previous)? Well all three projections are illustrated on the chart. Note that these are not projecting the price (i.e. how high) but rather the duration (how long). Also assuming that the new Rally will be basically only the start of a new hyper Bull Cycle, we can very well see the whole projection with the green double curve pattern. Note that historically, Cycles post their strongest Rallies after each Halving. See the true extent of the Rally after the May 2020 Halving (3). The next Halving (4) is projected to be around March 2024. Finally, an interesting piece of information is the Bullish Cross that the 1W STOCH RSI has posted. When those are made near the oversold 0 level towards the end of the 67 week Phase, they tend to be market bottoms. So what do you think? Does BTC have really only a month or so before a new Parabolic Rally? Or "this time is different"? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19