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BITCOIN Ascending Triangle on a 4H Golden CrossThis is a rather short-term Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 4H time-frame. There are three major developments: 1. The formation of an Ascending Triangle pattern similar with the one of February - March. 2. The break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 10. 3. The formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200. As you see, despite the break above the 4H MA200, the price still got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that started the correction after the March 28 High. That means that for now, the longer-term pattern of this bearish trend-line, overpowers the shorter term pattern of the Ascending Triangle. If the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, it should capitalize on the Golden Cross and most likely break above the Triangle itself. On the Feb - March Triangle, the break-out was limited to below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little over 34000. Notice that the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is slightly below the 1.236 Fib ext, so that is a major Resistance cluster right there. A 1D candle close above those can in my opinion complete the full bullish sequence to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (39300 roughly). On the other hand a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Ascending Triangle, should finally test the much anticipated 1W MA200 (green trend-line), which during the previous BTC Cycles, was the ultimate bottom formation. Keep an eye on the 4H RSI as well, the Lower Highs suggest that a pull-back to 27500 is technically plausible before the break-out is decided. What is more likely to happen for you first? Break of the Ascending Triangle upwards to 39300 or downwards to the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
Bitcoin Price Update 2022 Week 23BTC bounces from 0.618 Fibonacci level and continues consolidating between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels for the last 5 weeks. Following my prediction 2 weeks ago that Bitcoin has potentially reached its bottom we are seeing the second green weekly candle in 11 weeks after BTC made history with its 9 week decline since 21 March 2022. Bitcoins global technical analysis outlook continues to provide signals the bottom is in with consolidation and upside from here on. Should Bitcoins weekly candle close below the 0.618 Fibonacci we could see more downside till around $17500. 1. Horizonal trading volumes continue to rise from my last idea linked below and is on its way to become the second most traded price range which would signal this as a massive value area for buyers. 2. Trading volumes over the last 2 months remain at high levels showing good price conviction and demand. 3. Stochastic RSI trigger line has crossed over and is moving upward from the oversold zone showing upward momentum strength. 4. The two box areas which provided strong support previously in January 2021 and June 2021 continues to provide strong support in the third box area which going by previous durations would potentially last until end of June 2022 before we start to see a gradual increase in upward momentum into July 2022 and beyond. Legendary Investment Trader, Cryptocurrency & Web3 Master Boundless Lord
by boundless_lord
BITCOIN 1W Bearish Cross with Gaussian turning red.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just made a Bearish Cross between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for the first time since the previous Bear Cycle. In fact that is a technical feat only seen during Bear Cycles and most notably around the bottom. More specifically, in the 2018 Bear Cycle, this Bearish Cross took place 1 week after the market bottom, while in the 2014 Bear Cycle it took place 1 week before it. In addition to that Cross, another important historical indicator that is typically seen near bottoms, flashed a signal. The Gaussian Channel just turned red for the first time since July 2019. However, in both previous Cycles, when this indicator turned red, the price dropped around another -50% before making the market Bottom. We have to keep an eye on that, even though a symmetrical drop would pull the price as low as 16000, which isn't only below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also (considerably) below the Top of the previous Cycle (19800), which has never happened before historically (price in the new Cycle never re-tests the Top of the previous Cycle). With the 1W RSI rebounding on a Lower Lows patterns similar to the January 2015 bottom formation, it seems more likely for Bitcoin to consolidate there for a few weeks as part of an accumulation phase that will form the bottom and give way to a gradual price recovery by the end of the summer. So what do you think? Will the current 1W MA20/100 Bearish Cross form the bottom around the current levels or another -50% drop will take place as suggested by the Gaussian Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
34
BITCOIN The implications of this week's 4H MA200 rejection.Perhaps the biggest development this week for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the clear rejection exactly on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Typically when that takes place during an uptrend, it favors more the dominant (bearish) trend than prepares a switch to a bullish reversal. But let's see how similar patterns have developed price actions in recent cases going as far back as the 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. First I need to make clear that the RSI indicator on the panes below the chart is on the 1D time-frame and not the 4H. First case is the December 2021 pattern, which as you see had also a clear 4H MA200 rejection, then a marginal break above but that wasn't enough with the price extending the bearish trend all the way to 33000 before stabilizing. In June 2021 the price broke almost 2k above the 4H MA200 before being rejected to make a marginally Lower Low than the one that led to the 4H MA200 and then stabilize and gradually prepare a strong Bull run to a new All Time High. Now going back to the December 2018 Bear Cycle Bottom, the 4H MA200 test came just 5 days later with the price clearly breaking above the 4H MA200 but as with the previous cases, dropping back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This time however it didn't make a Lower Low, holding the December bottom which gradually gave way to the accumulation that paved the way for the May - June rally. Notice how on all cases, the 1D RSI printed the same pattern. And practically it was only when BTC broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) that a recovery was established (though in the case of 2021 didn't last for long, even though it made Higher Highs). The 1D MA50 is currently at 34390. What do you think? Do you expect Bitcoin to make one last push lower based on this model? Or reverse to a bullish trend if the 1D MA50 breaks first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BTC Analysis - Keep An Eye On The Ascending Trend LineHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. Tonights post is going to be short again, there really haven't been any new major developments so my technical analysis from my prior posts are still applicable. The only change from yesterdays analysis is that BTC is now trading on an ascending trend line. As you can see price has bounced from the trend line 3 times which is a good indicator that traders are playing this trend line. - As long as BTC bounces from this trend line the trend is intact. - If price drops below the trend line then the trend is no longer valid and we will need to re-asses for the next trend. - If price did drop below, this trend line could potentially act as resistance later on so keep that in mind. That's it for tonight's analysis, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
BTC Analysis - Understanding Price Action Within ZonesHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. I'm sure a lot of you are concerned after the large drop in price BTC faced today. At the moment there is nothing to worry about... - As traders we let the chart guide us - The key support levels are still intact and have not broken. Until that happens BTC is still in a position to make the next move up. Use the chart as a guide to help you understand any future price movement and what it could potentially mean. - As long as BTC holds the Support Level around $28.5, there is nothing to fear. That would just be more "Consolidation". - If BTC breaks below $28.5K then be slightly more cautious however BTC could still retest the low around $25K and create a double bottom before getting a bounce and making a move back up. **The "line in the sand" is if BTC breaks the $25.2K support level. This is where I would become far more Bearish and would expect BTC to dump. That's it for today's BTC post. Remember, the market is designed to push people to the brink of fear and anxiety to extract as much capitol as smart money can from the pockets of inexperienced traders. Read the charts and don't let the FUD affect you. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
2
BITCOIN The Channel that is dominating the trend since 2019Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now on the third week (1W candle) after the May 09 weekly low and the first week (so far at least) that is green after a historic streak of 9 red weeks. For this analysis I am using the 1W time-frame as it better displays what I want to show you today and that is a Fibonacci Channel on the log scale that started after the June 24 2019 1W High. This Channel has so far four perfect touches, the June 24 2019 (Higher High) 1W candle, the March 09 2020 (Higher Low) that was the COVID crash, the March 08 2021 (near Higher High) and the recent May 09 2022 1W candle as the new Higher Low. Or at least if it holds it will be classified as a Higher Low because as the longer term Cyclical models show, Bitcoin tends to price a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now at 22190. The similarities both in price and RSI terms between the two sequences within the Channel are remarkable. The 2019/ early 2020 pattern started rising within a Channel Up after an aggressive correction. Then as the price turned bearish and broke below the the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the new correction started with the 1D MA100 rejecting, which only broke once in both cases. That was the last break (where also the 1W RSI broke above its (yellow) MA line) before the final capitulation. In March 2020 that was the COVID crash, in 2022 it remains to be seen if the May 09 1W candle is the equivalent. There is a Resistance formed be the last break above the 1D MA100 in both cases. In 2020 when the price broke above it, the new Bull Run started. We can also claim that it was when the 1W RSI broke above its MA trend-line that the trend entered into long-term bullish territory again. Do you think this Channel will hold and continue to dictate the price action? Or Bitcoin will eventually hit the 1W MA200 as prior Cycles did? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29
BITCOIN Summer 2021 Déjà vu?Just a quick Sunday fractal analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Since the late March 2022 High, the price has dropped to a little more than -47%, trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 1.5 month. The sequence I compare this to is the drop from the May 10 2021 High, which initially bottomed at a little more than -49% then made a Lower Low shake out on June 22 2021 and after trading sideways, the consolidation/ accumulation ended on July 25 2021 when the price broke above the 1D MA50 again. A similar 62 day consolidation puts a potential end to a sideways trend on July 13 2022. The LMACD being already on a Bullish Cross and the RSI rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier, are identical between now and 2021. DO you think as this model suggests, that a break above the 1D MA50 will kick-start a new uptrend and if so can this be achieved in a deja vu manner by the end of July again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BITCOIN The huge significance of the Cyclical Pivot Trend-lineSince my recent analysis on the 'Buy Zone since April 2013' attracted so much interest and reactions by the community, I've decided to extend it. On the current idea, you see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 2D time-frame with the Buy Zone and 1W MA200 (red trend-line present). This time, I've designated the current and past two Cycles with a Pivot line that I'm calling 'The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line'. ** The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line ** This trend-line starts as a Resistance on each Bear Cycle. Then after the 1st Half of the Cycle is completed (red Triangle), the price breaks above the pivot and trades within a pattern that resembles a Channel Up (blue shape), but always above the trend-line, until the bottom is made. ** The 2D RSI ** In the past two Cycles, this bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200, which is currently around 22000 and rising. With the 2D RSI having reached below the 30.000 oversold level and rebounded, that bottom is certainly close. If the RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line, more particularly the (3) leg before the 1W MA200 is hit, then that would mean that the Bear Cycle's Bottom is already priced. This could mean trading sideways within the blue Channel Down as Bitcoin did in late January - early February 2015 and late December 2018 - January 2019. So how important do you think this Cyclical Pivot Trend-line is at the moment? Do you think the bottom will be priced on the 1W MA200 or will the RSI break upwards meaning it's already priced in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
39
BITCOIN The Golden combo Bottom rule. Are we that close?This isn't the first time I use the time Fibonacci levels along with the horizontal retracement levels when comparing past Cycles on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), but it may be more relevant than ever to refresh your memory as we are getting close to the desired buy levels on the long-term. This chart is on the 1W time-frame and first and foremost is dictated by the Halving events, where I've also included the next one (Halving 4 in March 2024). The time Fibs start from one Halving event and end on the next one. The horizontal Fib retracement levels measure from the bottom of the Bear Cycle to the top of the next Bull Cycle. As you see, the bottom on each of the past two Cycles has never been priced below the 0.382 horizontal Fib or after the 0.618 time Fib. At the same time, a confirmed buy on a cyclical basis, was always when the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross. Right now, the 0.382 Fib is roughly around 21300, just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 0.618 time Fib is on September 19 2022. That means that based on this model, it is very unlikely to see a price bottom below 21300 or after the coming September. Is the price already good for you to make a long-term buy or will you wait for the 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross and the 1W RSI 30.00 reading? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
45
BITCOIN The accurate LMACD bottom projectionOn this analysis, I am looking into Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W and 1M time-frames and how a certain LMACD level has previously revealed the bottom. ** The LMACD's Triangle ** The chart on the left is on the 1W time-frame. This isn't the first time I approach the LMACD (MACD indicator on the logarithmic scale) using this method, I've mentioned this a couple years ago, but as you see, the LMACD has been trending within a Triangle pattern. The indicator is very close to the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Triangle. If you notice, the price bottom of BTC's Bear Cycles has always been marked before the LMACD touched the Higher Lows trend-line on every Cycle. In fact, in January 2015, it didn't touch that trend-line and before it made a Bullish Cross, the bottom was already priced in. This Cycle's LMACD final correction phase is much more similar to 2014/15 then the other Cycles. ** The LMACD bottom trend-line and the RSI Support ** Perhaps the most important indication that the LMACD can give us in long-term Cycle analysis is on the 1M time-frame, which is the chart on the right. As you see, every Cycle bottomed before the 1M LMACD hit the Higher Lows of the Triangle. That trend-line is common on every Cycle and happens to be the 0.7 Fibonacci retracement level (0.14). That was the level that the 1M candles of January 2015 and December 2018 made bottoms on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Most likely, the LMACD will touch this level by the end of this month. Also it is interesting to point out how symmetrical the Highs and Lows are in this Triangle. Naturally the first High and Low were on the 0.0 and 1.0 Fib respectively. The ones that followed were on the 0.1 and 0.9 Fibs, while the last High was on the 0.3. If this symmetry continues, the current Low should be on the 0.7, so besides its historical importance, we have another reason to expect a bottom there. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the 1M RSI, which is approaching the 43.70 - 44.50 level, which has been its long-term Support Zone since its inception. Most likely by next month the latest, the RSI will make contact with that Support. Note that in January 2019, which was the last Support test, the price bottomed the month before. ** Conclusion ** This is an indicator that has never failed so far and for those who remember or have been following me here, it was the indicator that helped me project the bottom of the 2018 Cycle. Do you also think that Bitcoin will price the bottom by the end of this month? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
Which support zone does BTC have to reach on to recover up?On 5th of may bitcoin was trading at $39600.Decreasing from that point,it had fallen to the lowest of $25600 on 12th of may.this all happend between just 7 days.then,bitcoin surged a bit next day and since then bitcoin is trading between $29000 and $31000 till now.it has been seven days so far. I am not a professional trader,but according to my perspective,if bitcoin breakes the resistence of $31000 it can go back to the price of $40000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by aashumaan
1
BTC Update - Next Target @ $25,000The 4 Hour chart is over bought. Momentum is dying and it looks like BTC will be on its way down soon. Opening longs here might not be the best idea while inside this bear flag / pennant however you want to look at it. Small bounce expected once it hits #5. Entry Between: $30,791.00 - $29,414.00 Take Profit: TP 1 - $26,736.10 TP 2 - $25124.80 Stop Loss: $31,262.00 If you'd like me to analyse any other crypto send me a message or leave a comment 👍🏽 Happy trading! Not Financial Advise. Do Your Own Research.
Short
by priitzzy
1
BITCOIN entered a Buy Zone holding since April 2013.On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, I am bringing to you a fresh long-term perspective on the 1W time-frame using the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement/ extension levels. It is a Channel Up as you see and its start is on the Low of the April 08 2013 1W candle. ** Creating a 9 year Buy Zone ** The Top of the Channel is on the November 25 2013 peak of that Cycle. As you see, all the Cycles and price action that followed since then has seen the Zone within Fib 0.0 and Fib 0.236 as the ultimate Buy Zone being valid for 9 years running. In fact during the previous Bear Cycle (2018) the price dipped only marginally below the 0.236 Fib as its was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that provided the necessary Support and formed the bottom. It was only during the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID global meltdown that the price pierced through but still rebounded just above the Fib 0.0 (bottom of the Fibonacci Channel Up) and the 1W candles closed only marginally below the 1W MA200. That was the case also with the Jan 12 2015 and August 24 2015 Lows, they broke but closed on or above the 1W MA200, showcasing why it is the ultimate buy spot within this 9 year Buy Zone. Notice that, excluding the COVID crash of March 2020, the 0.236 Fib has made perfect hit and hold actions as Support 5 times since December 2018. ** The Zone of Frustration ** Since the January 03 2022 1W candle, Bitcoin has been trading (closing) entirely below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). I have labelled the periods of price action within the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 as the 'Zone of Frustration' where traders start to get confused at best or lose complete faith in the market. Right now it seems that we are approaching the end of this period. Notice how this is normally marked by a strong rejection on the 1W MA50 (March 28 2022 and July 30 2018 1W candles. In 2014, it was a near rejection on the November 10 2014 candle). ** The Rally Zone ** The 0.236 Fib is also key on another aspect of this Channel. In 4 times during these 9 years, it has marked all major rally phases. Basically it is at least the 0.236 - 0.618 Fib Zone that is dominating most parts of those rallies. Naturally that means that, if it holds, it can give a new rally in the coming months towards the 0.618 Fib. ** Conclusion ** This model shows that 1W candle closings above the 0.236 Fib of the Channel most likely indicate that this will be the new Support. Last week's bounce above it, adds more weight to this argument. Regardless of that, Bitcoin successfully entered this Buy Zone since 2013, so based on the above parameters, it is already a strong long-term buy with the only condition left to fulfil is hitting the 1W MA200. Do you think this is bound to happen in the next few weeks? Are you waiting until then or do you consider the break into this 9 year zone as a good enough buy opportunity for you on the long-term? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
36
BITCOIN Comparing 2 year corrections. Conditions for a bottom.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has seemingly recovered from the correction of the first 2 weeks of May and is trading +20% higher from the May 12 Low. However the question remains, can this recovery be sustained or the bottom isn't yet in? A comparison with the corrections of 2020 and 2018 can help us draw meaningful conclusions. Let's see the similarities and differences between the 2020 and 2018 corrections. ** 2020 vs 2018 ** Similarities: Both confirmed their recovery and started a new uptrend when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line form the last Top. That roughly matched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Differences: While the 1D RSI broke well below the 30.000 oversold level in both cases, in 2020 it achieved a price bottom for BTC, while in 2018, a price Lower Low was made for the bottom despite the fact that the RSI was rising. That bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while in 2020 the price dropped considerably below the 1W MA200. ** Today ** The correction since late March resembles so far that of 2018 in terms of the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and in terms of the total drop percentage as so far it has completed a -47%, not far off the 2018 -52%. A -52% would be approximately around $23150, just over the 1W MA200, which in 2018 formed the bottom. However it terms of RSI, it resembles more the 2020 correction, as the RSI is rising along with the price. So where does this leave us in terms of speculation? The common parameter in those past corrections, is that the market confirmed a sustainable rise when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line, which is also roughly where the 1D MA50 was. Right now the 1D MA50 is at $38623 but dropping fast due to May's aggressive correction. Long-term traders and investors have much better chances buying once BTC breaks above this trend-line. Our thesis is that, we will most likely see sideways price action before the Lower Highs/ 1D MA50 break, meaning that we may see a 2 month consolidation. Can this be this Bear Cycle's Accumulation Phase? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
40
Bitcoin good setup for uptrendIn the hourly timeframe, the Bitcoin is showing correction signs for at least the next 12 hours: 1) Bullish Divergence 2) Bullish Inverted H&S 3) Strong Support at 29200 4) Many engulfing green candles starting from the support line 5) Buyers coming in and pushing the price up despite the big red candle at the left MA Cross (green dotted hairline, A big movement in this area) 6) Trendline counts as another support 7) The hourly 9ma crossing above the 21ma is even better. A continuation of the last uptrend is highly likely. We will retest the 31000 line and if we break through it, we may see the 32199 which is a bit hard to go through. In case we pass the 31000 resistance and get rejected at the 32000 one, we may go sideways for a long while. This is not financial advice. Please do your own homework.
Long
by Casablanca05
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple 0.67!A reminder to everyone that Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is at 0.67! that is a very rare buying opportunity. www.buybitcoinworldwide.com Now is the time to load up on Bitcoin as of May 8th 2022 we turned purple a period in Bitcoins cycle that has only happened 5 or 6 times in all of its history , indicating that we are extremely under valued. There is even extreme cases where you can see a dash of black in the middle of some purple periods showing actual bottom of cycles.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
3
BITCOIN Closed 7 straight red weeks for the 1st time in history!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed this weekend its 7th straight red weekly (1W) candle, which is a feat seen for the first time in history. More specifically, the last time we had 6 straight losing weeks on Bitstamp was from August to September 2014: ** Healthy stock market needed ** Needless to say, this development is very negative for BTC, especially from a psychological standpoint as the market being full of weak hands and late buyers during corrections, it tends to be dominated by fear, uncertainty and doubt. That accelerates more selling until the market stabilizes and high capital investors (whales, big institutions etc), enter the market again methodically. Much will of course depend on the outlook of the stock market. Once the correction that began at the start of this year ends and the disappointing macro-economic environment stabilizes, institutional investors can again enter the riskier crypto-market. Until then we can expect more of that volatility at best. ** First week below 31600 since Dec 2020 ** However there is a certain basis we can work on and a few patterns to relate to. First, last 1W candle wasn't just the 7th straight red but was also the first weekly closing below 31600 since the December 21 2020 1W candle, thus reaching levels of almost 1.5 year back. The 1W MA200 is now at 21960 and as I've mentioned in previous posts, it is the weekly Support of the typical Bear Cycle. ** The importance of the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA200** Also last week's candle, left a big wick below as it rebounded strongly from roughly 25400. Such candles were last seen on November 29 2021 and May 17 2021. Both of those started a consolidation of at least 1 month. The difference was that the November one failed to break its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, thus kickstarting further decline, while the May one eventually broke above the 0.5 Fib, shifting the trend to bullish. The 0.5 Fib is currently a little over 35000. A weekly close above it, could be enough to restore the long-term bullish bias, even though technically there is still the massive Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider which rejected last time the uptrend (March 2022). A weekly closing below last week's low, should deliver the, much anticipated by the majority of market participants, capitulation blow on (and even slightly below) the 1W MA200, where Bear Cycles bottom out and typically consolidate for 4-6 months before initiating the new Bull Cycle. So what do you think will be the case this time? Will the market deliver the 1W MA200 to us? Or if the 0.5 Fib breaks, a new Bull Phase will start regardless? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. The last time the 1W RSI has been that low was on the March 09 2020 1W candle, which was the bottom of the COVID crash. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18