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💥Bitcoin 2022 Roadmap to $19k & $16k#Bitcoin Update🔥 Technically, we are repeating the same movement as in 2017. Bitcoin dropped by -84% from all time high from $19,799 to $3,159. As displayed on the chart, the major zone that served as a strong support was violated and Bitcoin dropped by -47% from $6,000 support to $3,159 in 2017. This same setup is repeating itself. The current bear cycle started in November 2021 . So far, Bitcoin has dropped by -58% from all time high from $68,996 to $29,000. Price has been respecting the major support within $29,000 & $30,000 so far. Just as 2017, support got violated at the tail end, therefore I expect a similar reaction and a drop by -47% or less from major support at $29,000 to $16,000 or $19,000. Not a financial advice🙅🏼‍♂️ Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Long
by PetrockFxTrading
5
MKRUSD The striking similarities with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle.This is a remarkable resemblance between Maker's (MKRUSD) price action since the May 2021 High with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Bear Cycle of 2018. I've mentioned numerous times that the crypto market's price action in the past +12 months can be viewed as a smooth (for crypto standards) Bear Cycle as a whole. As for Maker's 2021/22 price action we see that it shares striking characteristics with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle: * The rebound after the initial crash that followed the Market Top, reached as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. * After that, both Cycles started a gradual decline under a Lower Highs trend-line. * That eventually led to a capitulation sell-off , where Maker is at today and where Bitcoin formed its December 2018 bottom and then started to slowly recover into the new Bull Cycle. * That capitulation sell-off is similar in both cases (-58% for Maker and -52% for Bitcoin). * Bitcoin made the Cycle bottom on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (measured from the initial crash's low). Maker's -0.5 Fib ext is around 935.00, not far from today's 1030 low. * Bitcoin's 2018 Bear Cycle from top to bottom lasted for exactly 1 year. Maker completes 372 days today from its May 2021 High. What do you make of all those striking similarities? Has Maker bottomed or is it about to and gradually start a new Bull Cycle? Why do you think it has copied so closely Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle after all? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BINANCE:MKRUSD
by TradingShot
4
Will Bitcoin Get to $1 Million?Highlights There is a -0.70 Pearson Correlation Coefficient between the supply of bitcoin and its price. This negative correlation is more logarithmic than linear. As the supply gets closer to zero the price will rise quicker in raw numbers. This logarithmic relationship extended forwards in time to zero supply gives a Bitcoin price of around $460,000 There is a 0.85 Pearson Correlation Coefficient between the transaction volume of Bitcoin in USD and its price. Showing a strong positive relationship Transaction Volume in Bitcoin in USD has been largely rising with the price, but the number of transactions has been relatively low in comparison, staying between a range of 200k and 400k in the last 5 years. Suggesting that big players are transacting in larger numbers but the quantity of transactions isn’t rising to the same degree. Most Americans have heard of Bitcoin, so how much more awareness is there left to drive up demand? A study found that the main determinant for cryptocurrency prices is the relative cost of production. If the mining cost for Bitcoin rises too high then the upper price estimations will become limited There is a fundamental problem with the argument that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. Introduction There have been many investors, large and small, who have claimed that Bitcoin could hit $1 million per bitcoin Jones, C. (2021). The timelines vary. Some don’t have one and others say in the next couple of years (Cuthbertson, 2022), Kharpal, A. (2021).  In this report, I will be discussing their claims and any merit they may hold. I will attempt to dispute these claims from a fundamental point of view. Just to point out before I begin, I accidentally deleted all the data that I used for the calculations after I had done the analysis. If you want the analysis and the data - just reply to this post. Background The reason some estimate Bitcoin reaching such a high price is the supply is limited. The problem with this argument is, that the supply of everything is limited. Yes, even the US Dollar. The magic money machine is limited. So, for this argument to work the limitations of the supply have to be meaningful. Supply and demand go hand in hand. But I would say, in my opinion, demand is more important than supply. If I create a painting, I then duplicate the painting into ten copies. The supply is ten. But to be frank, who would want to buy a painting that I have drawn? Nobody. So even though the supply is limited the demand is non-existent, so it doesn’t matter. The price of those painting would be determined by the market price. That is the last sold price on the free market. But I haven’t sold any since the demand is zero, so the price is also zero. Let’s look at it the other way round. If I don’t create any painting, but the demand for my paintings is extremely high, then the moment I create any painting the price will be very high as well. As I increase the supply, the price should eventually go down. The market's interest is first, in my opinion, that drives prices, second is the supply. Of course, to have a healthy market you need both to be sufficient. Supply on its own means nothing. It just means something exists nothing else. Demand on its means there is interest. So, the potential is there. The moment supply matches the demand that interest turns into something and that something is valuable. So, the problem I have with this argument is, that the supply of Bitcoin on its own means nothing. Only when combined with demand does the argument have any potential merit. Assuming ceteris paribus, the only three ways the price of Bitcoin could go any higher is if the demand increases with the supply remaining constant. Or the supply falls with the demand remaining constant. Or the demand increases with the supply falling. The supply of Bitcoins is falling right now, it has since the beginning. So, the next thing to establish in this logic is, is the demand increasing, stagnating, or falling? This answer will tell us if the price carries on going up, Ceteris paribus and if that price will reach $1 million. Before I get to that, just out of interest I thought. Is there a correlation between the supply of Bitcoin and its price? Assuming demand remains stable, let's see if the supply will change the price. Supply Analysis I got the monthly close data for the Bitcoin price and the number of Bitcoins in circulation. The first assumption I had was the total supply of Bitcoin taken away from the total number of bitcoins in circulation is the left-over supply. That is a big assumption, since some long-term investors may not have their Bitcoins in circulation. Also, another problem is that quite a few Bitcoins in circulation may not even be accessible and may have been lost. So, the real leftover supply of Bitcoins would probably be lower than what I had calculated. Regardless this is just a simple analysis to find a correlation so these assumptions in my opinion are not that important. I doubt I would from, let’s say, a strong correlation to a weak one once the assumptions are violated. The data set was from 2014 to 2022 (finance.yahoo.com. (n.d.). There were in total 91 data values. During a Pearson Correlation, the value was -0.70. This suggests there is somewhat of a strong negative correlation between the leftover supply of Bitcoins and the price. However, there are a few problems. The first and most obvious one is, that this method of analysis assumes there are no other variables involved that, in this case, affect the price. Another problem is correlation doesn’t mean causation. So even though there may be a correlation between the supply and price that doesn’t mean one is affecting the other. This is more pronounced once you realise that the 2017 large price increase in Bitcoin may have been done by market manipulation (Rooney, 2018). The same may be said of the 2021 increase. If these price increases are due to market manipulation or even just a demand increase rather than the supply affecting the price, then the relationship between supply and price maybe even less pronounced than the data suggests. However, the main problem is that even though the correlation coefficient is -0.7. Once you look at both graphs plotted against their time. It doesn’t seem to be a correlation. The supply of bitcoins decreased from a high of 7.6 million in 2014 to a low of 1.97 million in 2022. That’s a -74% decrease. While the Price increased by over 10711% during that time. If we flip the supply data, we see a mere 289% increase. Once we do a scatter plot of the supply vs price, we see that the decrease in supply against price is not very linear. The supply decreases from 7.7 million to 4.8 million and in that time the price rose from $338 to $1071. But after the price rose above $10,000 in 2017 and then went on to $60,000 in 2021. The supply didn’t decrease as much. This decrease seems more logarithmic than linear. The R^2 value was 0.89. If I get the logarithmic line and extend it near zero. So, the supply of Bitcoins left is almost gone. The price of one bitcoin is only around $460,000. So, analysing the relationship between the supply of bitcoins and their price gives us an estimated maximum value of one bitcoin at around $460,000. Not $1 million. I must admit this analysis is very brief and basic, but the main point you should take is, that as the supply dwindles out, the price in raw numbers, would be expected to increase. So, smaller supply decreases will lead to larger price increases as the supply gets closer to zero. Demand Analysis Now it's time to analyse the demand for bitcoin and see if it is going up. The main measurement I will use for this is the transaction volume. I will then relate it to price the same way I did for the price. Looking at the transaction volume in USD for Bitcoin, we see that the chart seems quite similar to the price. Once you do a Pearson Correlation the coefficient comes out at 0.85. Suggesting a strong positive correlation between the two. If the transaction volume of Bitcoin increases would that be a strong signal for a price increase? The answer is Yes. However, the number of confirmed transactions per Bitcoin has never topped 1 million. Since 2017, the range has been between 200k - 400k (Blockchain.com, n.d.) Suggesting that the transaction volume increase has been due to larger USD volume and not the number of transactions increasing. This could suggest that people are transacting with bitcoin but just with higher amounts. This could also mean that the interest in bitcoin from a transaction point of view is not exactly going up. Also, another way to guess the demand for Bitcoin is the number of wallets created. Analysing this measurement, we see that the number of wallets is estimated to be over 100 million. However, the number of active wallets is most likely lower and those wallets that do exist probably do not have that much value. Furthermore, more and more people are becoming aware of bitcoin, but the real interest doesn’t follow suit. 89% of Americans have heard of Bitcoin but that number is not represented in transaction volume or even wallets in existence (Buy Bitcoin Worldwide, n.d.). To conclude, the transaction volume can be a very good indicator of the future price of bitcoin. However, the real interest in bitcoin isn’t following the awareness and acknowledgement of bitcoin. In my opinion, the average person has heard of bitcoin but doesn’t seem to be interested in working or transacting in bitcoin. This doesn’t much from a price point of view but questions the future usage that many bitcoin investors claim. This would mean the demand is not necessarily going up to a significant degree. Especially to a degree that would allow for $1 million per bitcoin. To explain why this doesn’t mean much from a price point of view, many people think that buying power means the price will go up in a certain asset but that’s not the case. There could be 10,000 buyers in a particular asset and one seller. If the seller has more monetary power, then the price of the asset would most likely go down. So even though the number of people using bitcoin may not reach the level many bitcoin investors want, that doesn’t mean the price won't. Also, though the the demand for bitcoin does seem to be increasing, it is largely been driven by larger investors who are transacting in very large volumes, hence why the transaction volume in USD I increasing but the number of transactions isn’t too the same degree, this may not be a problem for the price, since the large investors would have big buying power. But these large investors will not be able to manipulate the market since they will most likely be regulated. So the interest from the general public doesn’t seem increasing to the degree bitcoin investors want and even though big investors are getting into bitcoin, I doubt they will be able to pump the price up to $1 million. Study on what determines cryptocurrency price One interesting thing to note is, that there was a very good study (Hayes, 2017) investigating what drives the value of a certain cryptocurrency. This study found that the main determinant for prices is the relative cost of production. If the cost of mining bitcoin rises too high, then it will not be profitable for miners to mine and that would increase the transaction cost and time of bitcoin - leading to a price fall. This means to get to $1 million per bitcoin, the transaction costs need to be dramatically reduced for miners. If you do not see that happening, then you also shouldn’t see the price getting to $1 million. Main Argument Now to my main argument as to why bitcoin may never get to $1 million per bitcoin. Let me set the stage, if we have a company that has one million shares to sell at $1. If I buy all the shares the company's market cap is at $1 million, but more importantly I have effectively “pumped” one million dollars into the asset, in this case, the company's shares. Using this logic, we can see why Bitcoin may never get to one million. The current market cap is 619 billion dollars. At 32,546 dollars per Bitcoin (coinmarketcap, 2019). For the price to get to one million the market cap would have to grow by almost 30 times. This means the market would be around 19 trillion. So, using the logic above, for Bitcoin to get to one million there must be almost 18.5 trillion dollars pumped into Bitcoin. A question now arises, is that viable? It took Apple almost 40 years to get to a market cap of just 2.47 trillion. Google, 15 years to get to around 1.5 trillion. The value of all gold ever mined is around 9.6 trillion (www.goldeneaglecoin.com, n.d.). So, to me, the market cap of Bitcoin getting to 19 trillion seems very unlikely, there just isn’t enough interest in the asset to get it there. One may say, well what if it isn’t seen as an asset but rather a currency. That would mean more people would buy into it to use for transitions, but the problem is if the price keeps rising then the currency applications go down. Why would I sell my bitcoins to buy a car, let's say, if a week later the price of bitcoin may go up 10% next week? The more volatility in bitcoin the less the viability as a currency, the less volatility means the harder it will be for the price to reach one million. So, the argument, that the currency applications will lead to one million is very weak. The logic is also very extremely weak, if the price rises then the currency applications are lowered, so how can one say currency application will lead to a large influx of capital that will drive the price to $1 million. Conclusion To conclude, the is a good relationship between the supply of bitcoin, the demand for bitcoin and its price. But even though I do see Bitcoin being a part of our future, these relationships do not point to $1 million per Bitcoin. I would keep an eye on the transaction costs for Bitcoin and how profitable it is for miners to get a good idea of where the market could be heading in the future. Also, I would stay away from the very high and unsubstantiated claim of $1 million per Bitcoin. References Cuthbertson, A. (2022). Bitcoin price passing $1 million means society has collapsed, early investor warns. The Independent. Available at: www.independent.co.uk . Jones, C. (2021). One Analyst Has Bitcoin Reaching $4 Million. Forbes. Available at: www.forbes.com . Kharpal, A. (2021). Bitcoin at $1 million? Some analysts are bullish but others warn of risks ahead. CNBC. Available at: www.cnbc.com . finance.yahoo.com. (n.d.). Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Finance. Available at: finance.yahoo.com . Rooney, K. (2018). Much of bitcoin’s 2017 boom was market manipulation, research says. CNBC. Available at: www.cnbc.com . Blockchain.com (n.d.). n-transactions. Blockchain.com. Available at: www.blockchain.com Buy Bitcoin Worldwide (n.d.). How Many People Own, Hold & Use Bitcoins? (2022). www.buybitcoinworldwide.com. Available at: www.buybitcoinworldwide.com . Hayes, A.S. (2017). Cryptocurrency value formation: An empirical study leading to a cost of production model for valuing bitcoin. Telematics and Informatics, 34(7), pp.1308–1321. doi:10.1016/j.tele.2016.05.005. coinmarketcap (2019). Bitcoin. CoinMarketCap. Available at: coinmarketcap.com www.goldeneaglecoin.com. (n.d.). Value Of All The Gold In The World | Golden Eagle Coins. Available at: www.goldeneaglecoin.com .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BlackbearTrader
2
BITCOIN entered the 1D oversold zone for the 3rd time in 1 year.Last time Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke the 30.000 oversold barrier on the 1D time-frame, was on January 21 2022 and May 19 2021. Practically today marked the third time in the last 12 months that this event took place. During both of those capitulation candle sequences, Bitcoin formed a Support and turned sideways for around 2-3 months. During this process, it hit certain trend-lines. First, it took 10 and 15 days respectively for those events to hit the basis (red trend-line) of the Bollinger Bands (green pattern) and from that point another 56 and 65 days respectively to hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Given the max scenario in each case, Bitcoin could reach the Basis line of BB by May 24 and then the 1D MA200 by July 28. In addition, we are just above the Support Zone formed of the May 19 2021 (30100) and June 22 2021 (28600) lows. There is also a Lower Lows trend-line involved with a max extension around 27000. Do those indicate a bottom? And if so, will Bitcoin enter a 2-3 month consolidation on its way to the 1D MA200 yet again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
47
🔥 BTC / USD — Bitcoin Trading Mid-May 2022🔥Hey there, its Artem and here is update for upcoming week for Bitcoin. After Bitcoin breaking below $37,000 it making impulsive moves down. Now taking $34,000 zone and might take a short recovery week during mid-May. Expectations near $37,000ish and possible continuation down to $29,000 and $24,000 support regions in next 6 months. Currently waiting in cash and taking small risk trades counter-trend (long) to $37.000 to see whats happening next. Stay safe Pray for Ukraine Best regards Artem Shevelev
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
5
BITCOIN and stocks during rate hikes. Is a bottom being formed?On this unique analysis, I am cross-examining the behavioral pattern of Bitcoin (BTCUSD / candles) as compared to the stock market (S&P500 / blue trend-line) during the last time that the Fed starting raising the interest rates (green trend-line). ** Late 2015 pattern. The start of the previous rate hike phase ** The pattern from this sample is quite clear. Last time the rate hike started (December 2015), the stock market was already on a strong correction that bottomed 1 month later. At the same time, Bitcoin was volatile but didn't correct that much and instead started a new Bull Cycle. Notice that the stock market peaked and started its correction 5-6 months before the first rate hike. Obviously the bearish news that dominated the market at the time was China's slowdown (August 2015) and before that a potential Grexit but keep in mind that a potential rate hike was already being discussed before implemented and the markets tend to price in the news long before the event takes place. ** 2022 pattern. The start of a new rate hike phase ** Similarly coming to today, this week's aggressive 0.50% rate hike, the strongest since 2000, catches the stock market already in an ongoing correction. Notice that as in 2015, the stock market peaked and started to fall 5-6 months before this week's aggressive hike. As in 2015, this could have very much been related to the stocks pricing the rate hike months ahead of the actual event. At the same time, Bitcoin has had a low point in January 2022 (and an even lower (bottom) in July 2021), being volatile these past 5 months but with the strong correction already behind it from November 2021 to January 2022. Can all these be a coincidence? Or do all three form again the same pattern as in late 2015/ early 2016? As we mentioned numerous times from our channel here, Bitcoin's price action since the April 2021 High can be seen as a new form of Bear Cycle, much like the one in 2014/15 that preceded the rate hike. The current volatile range (circle on the chart) looks a lot like the one in November 2015 - January 2016, which kick-started the parabolic rally of 2016/17. Does all this mean that the stock market is about to price a bottom on this 5 month correction and Bitcoin to start a new Bull Cycle as the Fed moves into aggressive rate hiking (as per their announced plan) in an attempt to win the battle against a raging inflation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BITCOIN Short-term analysis on the Falling WedgeBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within Falling Wedge pattern on the short-term ever since April 11. The pattern is close to exhaustion point as the upper (Lower Highs) and lower (Lower Lows) trend-lines are getting too narrow. The direction to which the price breaks, should determine the trend of the next 2 weeks. The MA periods on the 4H time-frame play a critical part to this as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) rejected the price on April 21, while the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has done so on Apr 26 and 28. Right now the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the 4H MA100, which is the first Resistance and happens to be almost exactly on the Falling Wedge's Lower Highs (top) trend-line. A candle close above it, should be enough to extend the rise to the 4H MA200 even intra day but it is the potential break above the 4H MA200 that should really have our attention. In that case we may most likely see a strong rebound to the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which caused the rejection on March 28 and practically started this correction, that could happen converge on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that while the price action was on Lower Lows (of the Falling Wedge naturally), the 4H RSI has been rising on Higher Lows, posting therefore a Bullish Divergence. That gives more probabilities to a break-out to the upside. If the Wedge breaks to the downside though, the next level of Support to look for should be the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at around 34900. So what do you think? Do you expect the Falling Wedge to break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
37
Bitcoin And U.S. Interest Rates: A Historical Examination!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin and the comparison to the U.S. interest rates history. When looking at the current market situation it has to be marked that the global economy is shifting heavily and changes occur in a dramatic manner. These dynamics began since the Corona Pandemic shocked global financial markets, global supply chains, and global government policies in a manner bearly comparable to what has happened before. Since these devastating occurrences, Bitcoin and other assets managed to recover, for Bitcoin an accelerated technical and fundamental adoption has taken place with countries adopting Bitcoin as a legal tender and Bitcoin getting acceptance on a broader scale. All these factors drove the price of Bitcoin upwards till it now reached a high-base while in the stock market the floods of cheap money drove the prices simultaneously the real economy is still damaged by the disruptions and is long not at the point it has been before these historical alterations. Now the Federal Reserve Decided upon increasing the interest rates to tackle ongoing inflation, for the stock market the reaction, in this case, is historically given by a decline however for Bitcoin the story needs to be assessed differently, therefore I am explicating these dynamics. The FED Interest Rate Hikes Together With Bitcoins History: Since Bitcoin was founded in 2009 by the infamous Satoshi Nakamoto it has shown up with a massive expansion and disruption within financial markets creating a boom around Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency which formed the first initial wave. After that till November 2015 Bitcoin moved into a correctional phase till the FED decided upon moving forward with increasing the interest rates from zero upwards. This decision also simultaneously marked the Bitcoin bottom in 2015 as it is seen in my chart and from this point on Bitcoin showed up with its massive bull market. The Bitcoin bull market moved simultaneously with the interest rate increases as it is seen in my chart and from the beginning on Bitcoin printed a whooping 65X till it peaked in 2017. According to these factors now there is an indication given that Bitcoin does not react negatively to interest rates like it is the case in the stock market, in fact, the complete difference holds true. The interest rate hikes were positive for Bitcoin as Bitcoin served as a hedge against fiat depreciation and declines in the stock market. Gold In Interest Rate Hikes, Bitcoin In Interest Rate Hikes: When comparing Bitcoin to other assets it becomes clear that Bitcoin is a similar asset to precious metals, mainly Gold, not without reason Bitcoin is called the digital Gold and in fact, there are many similarities. As gold has a 5000+ years-long history it gives a good indication on what is likely to happen during rate hikes. As it is shown within the chart below this text Gold also reacted similarly during rate hikes like it is the case with Bitcoin. From 1954 to 1981 a massive bull-market showed up in Gold with a huge expansion and the exciting thing is that the interest rate increases moved exactly simultaneously with the Gold price action showing a clear correlation. After that when the rates decreased again Gold also decreased again. The same dynamic can be watched with the rate increases in 2004 and 2015, always when the rates increased Gold also increased. Therefore, when considering this second crucial indication it gives a sight on what is likely to happen with Bitcoin during this next rate hike period, according to the factors Bitcoin is also likely to increase with these determinations. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "There are many roads to prosperity, but one must be taken." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
14
BITCOIN This Falling Wedge decides the trend.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the March 28 High, always within the wider outlook of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is right below as the long-term Support, and hasn't been that close since the COVID crash months. A similar Falling Wedge was formed when the price was bottoming on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The OBV indicator between the two patterns are fairly similar. The Falling Wedge will most likely determine the trend of the next months, perhaps even for the rest of the year. A break upwards will most likely be a bullish signal for a price jump towards 55-60k similar to that of August 2021. On a different occasion, with break downwards, we need to wait for a weekly (1W) candle closing. Below the 1W MA100, opens the way for the low 30s even the higher 20s levels. Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will the Falling Wedge break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN accumulation to June, then rally. 5 year cheat-sheet.Today I am presenting to you a hidden phase cheat-sheet on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that I've been working on this week. The time-frame is the 1W (weekly). As you see, since the 2017 rally, Bitcoin has gone through three Phases of Rally - Accumulation - Bear. The astonishing fact is that time-wise all have been symmetrical to each other: * The Bear Phase lasts 44 weeks (308 days) while the Accumulation Phase lasts 15 weeks (105 days). Every time the Accumulation ends, the Rally Phase starts. * Approximately, we can estimate the peaks of the Rallies and end of the Bear Phases using the Fibonacci Time Extensions. Starting measuring from the Peak of the first Rally (0.0 Fib) and the end of the first Bear (1.0 Fib), we can see on the 1.5 Fib extension, the Rally roughly peaked (was just 2 weeks after the extension). The end of the Bear Phase was +1.0 Fib after, i.e. the 2.5 Fib extension. The peak of the next Rally was roughly on the 3.25 Fib ext and +1.0 Fib after was the end of the third Bear Phase. Based on this model, we have been within the third Accumulation Phase since the February 21 1W candle. Assuming that symmetry continues to hold, this phase should last again 15 weeks, which times its end on the June 06 1W candle. Then the fourth Rally Phase should start and it would be a good idea to sell around the 5.0 Fibonacci Time Extension, even though the model's progression suggests it can go as long as the 5.25 extension. Note that the RSI indicator on the 2W time-frame (below the chart price action), can offer an additional estimate with regards to when to have a confirmed buy. That will be when the RSI breaks above the MA line (yellow) again (for the 2nd time in the Cycle). Keep in mind that in Phase 2 that took place while the price was still within the Bear Phase, as the March 2020 COVID sell-off distorted the data short-term. That was a Black Swan event that is very unlikely to take place again at least that soon. Still, it gave a very accurate buy signal. So what do you think about this 5 year old model? Does it offer enough evidence to you that the market is accumulating, and is on the best buy levels before an upcoming Rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
63
BITCOIN correlation with stock market volatility and Halvings.As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the cryptoworld struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. The current analysis depicts exactly that notion in terms of Growth and Volatility while incorporating a key parameter of BTC, the Halvings. ** What is a Halving? ** First of all, in case you are a newcomer in the cryptospace, what is a Halving? It is the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain and is when the payout for mining a new block is halved. This induces inflation in the price, reducing the number of BTC in circulation, thus increasing demand. It happens after every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years). Because of increased demand, Halvings historically tend to create aggressive price rallies after the event. ** Stock market Growth and Volatility phases ** This chart is on the 1W time-frame and as mentioned displays Bitcoin (orange trend-line) against the stock market in the form of the S&P500 index (blue trend-line). The stock market since 2011 has gone through clear phases of Growth (green zone) and Volatility (blue zone). Out of the past three Bitcoin Cycles, two of them make almost exact matches: BTC's Bear Cycles with Stocks' Volatility Phases and BTC Bull Cycles/ Rally Phases with Stocks' Growth Phases. Slight exception was 2013/14, where BTC peaked in November 2013 but the stock market Growth Phase continued for another year. By the time the stock market volatility started, BTC had already made the bottom of its Bear Cycle. We may have a similar situation with the current BTC Cycle as well. Assuming that BTC's peak was in April 2021 and not November 2021 (slightly higher high), then as in 2013/14, the stock market Growth extended almost 1 year after BTC's peak. If that's the case and the correlation continues to hold, then BTC's bottom was priced early this year as the stock market volatility has started since the start of 2022. Another interesting element is that the middle of the Stock market volatility phase has always been very close to BTC's Bear Cycle bottom level. Technically, that appears the most optimal level overall historically to buy with confidence for the long-term. If the current Stock volatility phase lasts 84 weeks as in 2015, then its middle should be around October 2022. If however the volatility phase lasts as long as 2018/2019 (107 weeks), then its middle should be around January 2023. Note that a Volatility phase that long would match almost perfectly with the next Halving of March 2024, which as mentioned at the start of the analysis, kick-starts BTC's Parabolic Rally. Do you think this is a good correlation to time a solid buy entry on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN A correlation with US10Y and EURUSD hints to a rallyThis is a simple yet very insightful correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD orange trend-line) with the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the EURUSD (green trend-line) pair. The analysis compares the 2014 - 2018 era with 2018 - 2022. As you see, when the EURUSD pair peaks, BTC tends to form (or be close to form) a top on its Bull Cycle, hence starting its Bear Cycle. Similarly, when the EURUSD pair bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive rally of its Bull Cycle (note that normally it is well past its bottom formation). At the same time, when the US10Y peaks, BTC makes (or is around) the bottom of its Bear Cycle and starts its Bull Cycle. Similarly, when the US10Y bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive part of its Bull Cycle (as in the case of the EURUSD). Currently, on this 1W chart, the US10Y is on a small pull-back. Based on the above, if this pull-back is sustained, we may see Bitcoin form the bottom of the Bear Cycle of the past 12 months and gradually start rising again. The final confirmation of an upcoming parabolic rally can be when the EURUSD bottoms out, but as mentioned EURUSD bottoms a bit later than BTC. How accurate do you think those correlations are? Do you also agree that if the US10Y reverses, BTC will start a new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BITCOIN A medium-term update on the Channel Up.This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) update on my April 06 analysis on the Channel Up structure: With the price getting rejected last Thursday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but holding and closing all 1D candles above the First Support of Higher Lows (green trend-line), Bitcoin has entered a strong consolidation phase on the short-term. The longer it goes, the more that looks as a bottom formation, even though the hard Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up is a bit lower. As the 1D RSI has formed Higher Lows, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 would translate into an immediate rise towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price got rejected on the last Channel Higher High on March 28. A closing above that level further opens the way for a technical new Higher High formation, which has an upside limit on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, currently around 50650. This price action should continue to trade the Channel Up pattern until either the 52150 Resistance (December 27 High) or the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) break (long-term bullish and bearish break-out respectively). Which break-out do you think will come first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN 743% profit doneHow can you become a successful trader ? To be a successful trader , - you must enter from a valid entry point - you must set a correct stop loss - have to set a target to get out if you stick to these rules you will be super rich soon you must be patient and stay away from greed and you must have experience this market is not based on feelings this is a war and you have two choices win and make your life wonderful or lose and surrender So stay smart and patient and stick to the 3 rules above and Stop wasting your precious time ------------------------------------------ futures signals 5 scalping signals was enough to earn 743% profit ( leverage was between x5 - x12 )
by WHALE_SIGNALS_ALERT
16
Crypto Winter has begunIf this is indeed a major bear market, I think we can speculate about the returns for a potential fifth cycle. Cycle 2 was ~600x ($2 bottom / $1,200 top) Cycle 3 was ~100x ($200 bottom, $20,000 top) Cycle 4 would be ~20x ($3,000 bottom, $60,000 top) The returns seem to be diminished by a factor of 5-6, as the cycles move on. So if it turns out that that: a) We capitulate to the $20,000 region this year b) This becomes the new market cycle bottom Cycle 5 diminishing by the same factor would implicate ~4x returns, and the next major top could be around $80,000. Basically, volatility reducing and Bitcoin becoming just another traditional asset.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ViriyahLangkaviket
1
BITCOIN, Major BROADENING-WEDGE To APPOINT BREAKOUT!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin and the 4-hour timeframe perspective. In the recent times, important and crucial changes have occurred within the whole market and we can watch here institutional interest is increasing for Bitcoin, furthermore, there are countries such as Mexico looking to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender, and institutions such as Micheal Saylor with MacroStrategy buying further Bitcoins. These factors indicate a continued increasing positive sentiment moving on for Bitcoin while adoption is still moving on. Nevertheless, it is also necessary to watch for the technical factors and see where Bitcoin is likely to heat within the upcoming times from a short-, middle-, as well as long-term-perspectives. In this case when watching on my chart we can see there that Bitcoin is building this main broadening-wedge-formation with the coherent wave-count within the formation almost already completed with the waves A to C and now as Bitcoin bounced within the lower boundary this is actually building the setup from where Bitcoin has the ability to build upon and continued to setup finally developing a breakout. Once the breakout happened above the upper boundary as marked in my chart this will be the setup from where Bitcoin has potentials to continue with and this will activate the target-zones within the $47,000 level marked in blue in my chart. Once this target-zone has been reached the situation needs to be elevated again and Bitcoin needs to show how it continues from there on and if a possible further formation can lead to a continuation, it will be an interesting development. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "Good fortune is when opportunity meets preparation." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
24
BITCOIN The USD is approaching a level of historic BTC rallies!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned again lower on the short-term following yesterday's pull-back on the stock markets due to Powell's remarks on a May 50 basis points hike. The long-term outlook however remains intact and is further enhanced by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is approaching a critical Resistance trend-line. As this 1W chart shows, every time the DXY (bottom chart) hits its 5 year Lower Highs trend-line, it gets rejected towards the 90.000 level or lower. At the same time, as the USD is devalued against major currencies, Bitcoin starts an aggressive (parabolic) rally. The last two times it was the 2017 rally and the post COVID crash 2020 rally. As you see, I've drawn BTC's own Higher Lows Zone that acts as a Support since 2017. In fact if we ignore the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash, we see that the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line offers an absolute Support since 2017 with multiple contact points that sustained the long-term logarithmic uptrend, and is now very close to the current price action. So what's your opinion about this potential rejection of DXY? Will it be enough to start a new parabolic rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
50
BITCOIN Can it rise that fast that quickly?As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, following a Higher Low two days ago on the 2022 Channel Up, it is time to look into the bigger picture again and see where we are at on the long-term Channel Up that started after the April 14 2021 High, which is a pattern that I first introduced on this channel on January 25 2022: ** Is this a near perfect symmetry ** First of all let's start by pointing out that so far, the time period between the Channel's two Higher Highs and two Higher Lows has been almost the same (210 days against 216 respectively). Assuming the next Higher High has the same distance from the previous, that times it on June 08 2022. Even if we use the distance from the Higher Low to Higher High measurement (which however so far gives only one event), which is 140 days, that places the next Higher High on June 13. Can Bitcoin rise that high that quickly? ** Where are we in relation to the last bottom? Ichimoku, RSI and MACD approaches ** One way to answer this is to determine where we are based on the last bottom/ Higher Low of the Channel Up. The March 28 High got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A similar but only near rejection was made on June 15 2021, so that is too soon on the previous fractal. On the other hand, the fact that since April 11, the price entered and stayed within the green Ichimoku Cloud, brings us to the similar September 20 - October 01 2021 stage. That is matched fairly well by the RSI of the two periods. Perhaps the most important is the MACD indicator, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame, in order to put emphasis on the Bullish Cross. That happened on March 30 2022 and August 19 2021, roughly when the Ichimoku Cloud turned green. That was just before the March 28 2022 High (1D MA200 rejection) and the September 06 2021 High. Now the MACD is about to cross again into a Bearish Cross, which needs to be avoid in order to keep the fractal intact. Same as it was avoided on September 26 2021, while the price was trading inside the green Ichimoku Cloud. ** What if we are still forming the bottom? ** If the above indicators are the case, then this suggests that this time the uptrend to a Higher High is much less aggressive than in 2021. That is to a big extend justified by the fact that the Ukraine - Russia war kept BTC and the whole market low in February - March, as the (highly correlated) stock market had a strong correction. As a result BTC may not be at its full potential right now and fairly underpriced in relation to the 2021 leg. However, since the 1D MA200 hasn't been broken (yet), we may assume that it is possible to still be forming the bottom and the recent pull-back be similar to that of August 01 - 05 2021, which was half-way through the first phase of the rally that got Bitcoin out of the bottom's consolidation. In that case, there is still enough potential to make a new Higher High (and All Time High as a matter of fact) but could take longer, roughly end of July. Bonus fact: See how important the Fibonacci retracement levels of the Channel Up are. The recent 1D MA200 rejection took place on the 0.382 Fib, the Sept 21 2021 low stopped on the 0.236 Fib, the Sept 06 2021 High on the 0.618 Fib and many other examples. Based on the above facts, do you think it is realistic to expect Bitcoin to rise this fast that quickly? Or are we just getting out of the new bottom formation of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BITCOIN spot market bottoms and reversals using DOW's Stoch RSII've made countless analyses in the past pointing out the high correlation between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the stock markets. In that context, I was running a few regressions of BTC against Dow Jones (DJI) in particular and found an indicator that has spotted all of Bitcoin's historic market bottoms with 100% accuracy. That is the rather undervalued Stochastic RSI. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, the 1W Stoch RSI of Dow Jones is currently on a slight pull-back having made an absolute bottom on the 0.00 reading in late February. Notice how all Stoch RSI swings at or near 0.00 have been market bottoms for Bitcoin: September 11, August 2015, January 2016, December 2018 and March 2020. When the RSI broke above the 20.00 level again it started a consolidation phase, which never looked back and eventually led to a parabolic rally. As you may see, all initial breaks above the 20.00 Stoch RSI level, posted a pull-back soon after (red and green arrows). Once the pull-back was completed on the green arrow, the Parabolic Rally on Bitcoin started. This is strong evidence that the market has made its bottom on the current Cycle. What we need to pay attention to now is when Dow's Stoch RSI will reverse again. That will be the time that Bitcoin breaks upwards and won't look back. From a long-term investors perspective, Bitcoin's current price level is a good of a buy as it can get. Wouldn't you agree based on this correlation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! * NOTE: I don't know why Dow's price chart also shows up. Drag the Stoch RSI pane in order to maximize it over Dow's price and better see the correlation with Bitcoin. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
31