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BITCOIN started a new Bull Cycle last time the Dollar did this.On this chart I've plotted Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1W time-frame. It is a simple comparison of time phases. As you see, the DXY (black line) has reached in recent weeks a symmetrical level which during 2019 it started forming a Channel Up. At the same time Bitcoin (orange line) made the bottom of its 2018 Bear Cycle and started the new Bull Cycle. Right now the pattern formed on Bitcoin is very similar to that of the December 2018 - January 2019 Bear Cycle bottom. I have made a case in previous publications that Bitcoin may be in a mini (I called it in fact the 'smoothest' ever) Bear Cycle since the April 2021 High. Now that seems to be very consistent with that fractal comparison on DXY. Do you think the symmetrical pattern that DXY is forming may be an indication that BTC has bottomed? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
49
Bear Market RoadmapThe bear market has been underway for a while now ever since the top in April 12th 2021 I believe we have been in a bear market and in a distribution phase, even though we did make a higher high later on the year I still have come to the conclusion that we are indeed in a bear market. The TA i posted a while back “The satoshi Prophecy” while still not technically invailded because in that TA my thesis is that May 2022 is the top for the cycle based on a Fibannaci time sequence of Chain Link, I still think it will eventually it will be invalided coming May 2022 as not the cycle top but as the bottom of the bear market ,you can check that out below. As soon as we lost the 8/1 Gann on Bitcoin I new things were about to get rocky but I still pushed and thought we were in a bull market because I kept finding things that backed my May 2022 cycle top case for example I posted the blue fibonacci log theory which you can check below . Weeks later we would break the blue fib log after that there was no case for the bulls anymore , historically breaking the blue fibonacci log confirms a bear market. In reality breaking the 8/1 Gann and not holding as support should have been the line but I was so focused on the Chain Link Fibonacci count that I did not see things coming, check out below on how we broke support the week of new year. Normally to trigger a Bull market or continue an uptrend we hold 8/1 as support and break higher like below in 2020. So what comes next, well looking at the golden multiplier trend lines we can see whenever Bitcoin follows below the last orange line we enter a bear market , right now we have been under it for a while now. Once below Bitcoin normally bottoms on an average of about 120days and breaks above the orange line in an average of 270 days which would put us in September to break out and amazingly May 2022 for a bottom , amazing that it lines up with May 2022 So what can we expect is a retest of the orange line at one point that ends up in a failed rally happens every time in history in a bear market 2011 2015 2018 Present Day Showing a possible outcome for this year 2022 So now we come to the most important piece of evidence that we are in a bear market and that would be the June 2018 bear market fractal that has played out 1:1 almost perfectly . Present Day with June 2018 Fractal June 2018 pattern Also cover this in the TA below It is a mirror pattern , mind blowing stuff and during June 2018 we also had a MACD bearish cross on the monthly which has happened now as well! So if the June 2018 bear market fractal plays out we retest 33k and create a double bottom sometime in the next 10days maybe and then have a rally to the orange line we talked about before which more or less lines with the 0.618 you can see that in the main chart above . There is this 3/1 Gann which I have been following for a while that Bitcoin can’t seem to break take a look at the TA below . I believe Bitcoin will most likely fail to break this gann line until we form that double bottom and finally to finish off volume , we had no capitulation volume come in , every time we have a major bottom or top there is a huge spike in volume. So how I think 2022 plays out 1- Revisit 33k form double bottom 2- Rally to 0.618 or orange line(Golden Multiplier) anywhere from 45k-56k to Mid-late March 2022 3-Get nuked down into May maybe capitulation wick down to 25/27k before closing at 30k 4- Come out of Bear market September 2022 5-Cycle Top June 2023
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sporia
1
BITCOIN closed 1st green month after 3straight red! Buy or sell?So Bitcoin closed yesterday its 1st green month after a series of 3 red monthly closings since the November All Time High (ATH). Is this bullish or bearish on the long-term? One way to answer this is to see how the price moved after a similar monthly pattern. This chart is obviously on the 1M time-frame with the blue trend-line being the 1M MA50 but with the red being the MA50on a different time-frame, the 1W. To have a larger sample, I've included the cases where a green 1M candle appeared after 3 or more straight red. Other than the current, these parameters return 7 other such patterns: * The most recent being the July 2021 1M green candle, which formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new High after that with the 1W MA50 supporting. * The October 2019 1M green candle was also formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as the 1W MA50 failed to support. * The February 2019 1M green candle was formed after 6 straight red. This was slightly after the bottom of the 2019 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting the start of the new Bull Cycle with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. * The June 2015 1M green candle was formed after 3 straight red. This was also slightly after the bottom of the 2014/15 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting next Bull Cycle with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. * The November 2014 1M green candle was formed after 4 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as it failed to break above the 1W MA50. * The May 2014 1M green candle was formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as the 1W MA50 failed to support. * Finally, the December 2011 1M green candle was formed after 5 straight red. This was slightly after the bottom of the 2011 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting the start of the new Bull Cycle, which came after BTC broke above the 1W MA50. Check this series on the snapshot below, if you don't want to scroll the main chart to the left: So as you can calculate based on the sample above, historically when a green 1M candle has formed after 3 or more straight red, BTCUSD moved on to a new High more times (4) than a new Low (3). The key here seems to be the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which every time it broke to the upside after such a pattern, it always delivered a new High (3 times) relative to when the red streak started. Basically all of those 3 times it did, Bitcoin had just priced the bottom of a Bear Cycle and was at the start of a Bull Cycle. I've included the 1M RSI indicator on this chart to show that, based on this, with it being on Lower Highs and currently below its (RSI based) MA (yellow trend-line), the price action since the April 2021 High looks more like a Bear Cycle. That is a subject I've touched in more detail in previous analyses of mine, one of which you can find below. So how do you think BTC will trade following this 1st green monthly candle after 3 straight red? Is this buy or sell signal? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18
Bitcoin/USDT - Russia/UkrainFebruary ended with a very bullish closure which was surprising for many with the current economic climate and uncertainty surrounding humanitarian risk coming out of Eastern Europe. Last week majority of the globe imposed sanctions on Russia including the ban of Swift payments but it doesn't appear this was something which caught Russia off guard as they had already moved towards making Bitcoin legal tender two weeks previously. These sanctions pushed Russia into a position where buying Bitcoin was their best and possibly only way of being able to continue with any possible trade deals. Additional to this millions of $'s were ploughed into Bitcoin and used to provide donations towards those affected in Ukraine. Now we understand what caused Bitcoin to gain great momentum in the latter part of February we can now enter March with a clearer picture of what is most likely to lie ahead, at least in the short term. Bitcoin closed on 28th February finding resistance on the daily and monthly level circa to $43,400, leaving the most likely outcome to be a reversal over the coming days back down towards $36,000 with the strong possibility of breaking through to head towards $30,000, wicking as low as $28.000. The market is being held afloat by the potential of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine but any positive outcome from this is very unlikely after the damage which has already been caused. In other news, Ebay are rumoured to be considering the possibility of integrating cryptocurrency payments into their platform. So whilst we have a short term bearish play in mind, the bigger picture is very bullish and considering how government bodies naturally moved towards Bitcoin as their economy was collapsing it shows that the consideration for Bitcoin to become an underlying store of value for GBDC's in the future is highly possible. Short trade signal - BTC/USDT Entry: $43,800 Stop Loss: $46,200 Take profit levels (50/50 split): $36,700 and $30,680
Short
by ZeroGravityGB
1
BITCOIN Will 20k happen?A lot of talk has been happening lately, whether Bitcoin has found a bottom or if the June 2021 breaks will see even lower prices such as 20k. Well, we can never rule out anything in the investing world, everything is open as a possibility. Based on BTC's historic price action though, we can get a fair understanding of the probabilities involved. ** The Green Zone and the Black Swan that broke it ** As you see, this is BTC on the 1W time-frame from 2012 to 2022. Since mid January 2022, the price entered the long-term Buy Zone (green area) and immediately reacted with a rebound. However, due to the recent events in Ukraine, we've been seeing a pull-back, which is still a Higher Low though. Wars are considered a Black Swan event, similar to the COVID flash crash in March 2020. As shown on the chart, that event was enough to make the price break below its multi-year Buy Zone and only find Support one Fib extension lower (2.0 Fib). As a result we can assume that if the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates more aggressively into a war involving more countries, it could turn into another Black Swan event. The probabilities for that though depend on each person's understanding of reality. ** Previous Peak never re-tested ** Realistically that event doesn't have the highest probability to happen. As a result, it is most likely that the current levels are the new bottom of the long-term price action. At the same time historically, Bitcoin has never hit the Peak of the previous Cycle. Anything can happen of course, but it is a fact that the $32.00 peak "never happened", the $1250 peak "never happened", so most likely we won't see BTC hitting the $20000 peak of the previous Cycle either. In fact, the 1W candle action since the November High, and in particular that since the mid January low, resembles the price action of every single Bear Cycle bottom: November 2018 - January 2019, July - October 2015 and January - May 2012 (Circle inside Blue Pattern). So what do you think? Will 20k happen for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
38
BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders short-termI rarely publish a short-term analysis on Bitcoin but a very structured pattern is being formed on the 4H time-frame and thought it'd best to share it with you. As you see this is an Inverse Head & Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a structure technically formed on market bottoms, with the trend changing from bearish to bullish. However there are several other dynamic parameters to consider: * The price got rejected yesterday on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and today on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This means we have a successive double MA rejection in a few hours. * Those rejections come straight after the formation of a 4H Death Cross, which is a technical bearish pattern. However such crosses haven't been that accurate lately as the 4H Golden Cross (the opposite of a Death Cross) on February 08, was formed on a short-term Top. We have to acknowledge however that this is the first 4H Death Cross since November 19 2021. * There are three Lower Highs trend-lines involved. The latter 2 have already been broken but Trend-line 1 remains (which happens to be perfectly aligned at the moment with the 4H MA100 (green trend-line)) and is the one that started after the February 15 High. * On the positive side though, the 4H RSI has been on a Higher Highs and Higher Lows Megaphone since for the past 5 days, indicating buying pressure. As you realize, even though the IH&S pattern and the RSI point towards a recovery, BTC has to get past and close above the 4H MA50 and MA200 first and then the final Lower Highs trend-line 1, which at the moment apply selling pressure. The technical target of the IH&S pattern typically is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is currently at 44350. This aligns almost perfectly with the 44800 Resistance of the February 15 High. Which formation do you think will prevail? Let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BITCOIN, CRUCIAL FORMATION Can Be Catalyst For NEXT IMPULSE!Hello Cryptocurrency Community, Welcome to this pivotal crucial Bitcoin analysis about the 12-hour timeframe perspectives, the recent events, the current formational structure, and what we should expect in the upcoming times. The main potential inverse head-shoulder-formation that I mentioned in my previous analysis has now been invalidated to the downside and activated scenario 2 for Bitcoin, if you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend watching it as this analysis is coherently building upon it. Therefore as Bitcoin now invalidated this bearish scenario due to the volatility that recently increased the paradigm has shifted and in this case, I detected important formational factors that are important to take into account right now. Structural Formation And Incoming Determinations: Looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin since recently increased with bearish volatilities has moved into the crucial 34.400 USD support marked in my chart in blue and has now tested this support, this support was already tested previously and the more often Bitcoin tests this support the weaker it gets. Nevertheless currently on the more local timeframes Bitcoin is also building this broadening-wedge-formation that I will link here, when this formation completes Bitcoin has the ability to breakout and initially move into the remaining resistances where Bitcoin has strong resistances within the 38.600 to 40.000 USD area that is marked in my chart in red, therefore, when Bitcoin reaches out there it will be a highly likely origin of a bearish pullback to the downside. Upcoming Destinies To Consider: Taking all these factors into the consideration now when Bitcoin pulls back off the massive bearish-resistance-cluster as marked in my chart this is just one step forward for completing the huge massive bearish indicated descending-triangle-formation that Bitcoin forms here marked in my chart with the coherent wave-count within which will complete when Bitcoin finalizes the wave-E in the triangle and once this happened with Bitcoin breaking below the lower boundary it will activate the bearish continuations and Bitcoin reaching out lower levels, therefore, the 24.500 USD zone as marked in my chart will be a likely target to be reached once this whole formation has been completed, therefore it is highly necessary that we keep patient and prepare on such increased volatilities upcoming. Local Broadening-Wedge-Formation With The Resistance-Pullback-Scenario Indicated: In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
20
BITCOIN The OBV indicator says we're still accumulating.This is a simple yet very effective projection provided by the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. I've charted Bitcoin on the 1W time-frame on this one in order to include all of its historic price action. This one year sideways (though the margin is wide, it is still sideways for BTC's standard volatility) price action based on the OBV is nothing more than an Accumulation Phase. This is similar to June 2016 - April 2017 on the previous Cycle and with July 2012 - December 2012 on the one before. As you see, the OBV also provides clear patterns for the Cycle's final rally towards the Peak and the Bottom. Right now the closest pattern this past year looks like is the Accumulation. This approach indicates that by the end of this year or beginning of the next, we should see the current Cycle making a peak. Where that can be? Well since each of the past two Cycles peaked on a +.382 Fibonacci progression (2.382 in Dec 2013 and 3.382 in Dec 2017), then the 4.382 Fib should be the next candidate for a peak, which is around $280000. So what do you think about this OBV approach? Is it reliable in suggesting which part of the Cycle we're currently at? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
33
BITCOIN is exactly where 3 tech giants have been in the past!Bitcoin has been consolidating for almost 1 year within a wide range that many market participants consider nothing more than a long-term Accumulation Phase. Well there is nothing better to strengthen this notion than this new analysis I present to you, based on how three tech giants (Amazon, Google, Apple) traded during a similar pattern. First of all, in order to make the sample as diverse as possible, I've included fractals during time periods that are very different from each other. Amazon in 2009/2010 just after the subprime mortgage crisis, Google in 2014/2015 during the first major consolidation of the post crisis recover and Apple in 1998/1999 during the last years of the build up of the DotCom Bubble. This is a diverse enough sample to provide as an unbiased evaluation as possible. So as you see, all tech giants made a bottom after the price broke below their respective 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) period and the Ichimoku Cloud. Then they started a rise, which evolved into a very aggressive rally. Even though all 4 fractals are similar, Bitcoin looks a little bit more like the Apple late 90s pattern, while Amazon and Google are more similar as the bottom below the 1W MA50s was a Lower Low. Bitcoin's (so far) and Apple's second corrective waves are Higher Lows and not Lower Lows. On the other hand though, Bitcoin and Google are the only fractals whose second waves broke below the Ichimoku Cloud, with that turning red for a short while, and the 1W MA50 turning sideways. Due to that, Google consolidated for around 4 months more around the 1W MA50 before rallying into a new All Time High. What do you think will be the case for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
58
BITCOIN, Develops CRUCIAL BEAR-FLAG, Determining Objections Now!Good Day Cryptocurrency Community, Welcome to this pivotal analysis about the Bitcoin situation on the 2-hour timeframe perspectives. Since Bitcoin recently managed to hold the $42,000 area we have seen an initial bounce of $2,600 here with Bitcoin moving into the $44,600 level and confirming as at an important resistance, in fact, Bitcoin still had resistance in this area developed by past price actions. While Bitcoins technological adoption goes forward with the institutional interest growing exponentially since the beginning of 2022 as the SEC filings that mention "Bitcoin" accelerated heavily and other old economy investors such as Warren Buffet investing into Bitcoin-friendly startups there are still increasing regulatory and restrictionary pressures that burden Bitcoin such as governments freezing Bitcoin wallets. In such environment it is necessary to distinguish between the short and long term perspectives. As I already mentioned in posts and on my YouTube channel Bitcoin has still solid fundaments for a bullish destiny on the more long term perspectives however from a short term and trading perspectives it is necessary to zoom in and see where Bitcoin is heading to have a proper trading lineup in the market, in this case I detected the central factors and upcoming determinations that are pivotal now. As when looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin since bouncing off the $42,000 area Bitcoin moved on into this highly crucial descending resistance line which is marked in red in my chart, besides that Bitcoin has formed this main ascending channel and in this channel tested the $46,600 area from where it now several times pulled back and confirmed this area as a respected resistance. In this case now there is a increased likelihood that Bitcoin completes the ascending channel as a bear flag below the lower boundary as it is seen in my chart from there on a continuation to the $42,055 level is indicated, it is also possible that Bitcoin firstly bounces and makes a new structure high above the $44,750 level before moving into this initial bear flag target zone. Once the initial target zone has been reached it will be highly determining on if Bitcoin holds this level substantially or just sets up for a bearish continuation, in this case, when Bitcoin moves below the $42,200 area this will lead to the wave C extension and Bitcoin reaching out the final bear flag target zone. In any case it is necessary that we keep prepared on upcoming volatilities and shifting dynamics to do not overspeculate the market in this critical phase, it will be an important dynamic ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
12
BITCOIN The correction is coming to an end. Fractal with 2019/20A month ago I first suggested the idea that the current correction may be another Bear Cycle and that as Bitcoin gets more institutionalized and achieves further adoption, these 'smoother' Bear Cycles may be the norm from now on: This time I take it a step further and compare the 2021/22 correction with that of 2019/20. Now, I need to state the obvious before we begin, that 2020 had the Black Swan of the COVID outbreak, an (anomaly) event that only happens once in 100 years and can't be comparable to anything we have in our samples. However even if we filter this out, we find interesting similarities between the two periods. Using the Gaussian Channel, we get a better sense of the cyclical behavior of phases and the net volume indicator on the stages. Both fractals initially made a slight break below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), recovered but later broke again below it significantly. Only when the price recovered both the 1W MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), was the recovery confirmed and the new parabolic rally of 2020 could begin. At the moment it seems BTC is in that stage of attempting to break above this MA zone. Notice also the importance of Net Volume in all of this. Even before they reached their respective peaks, the volume started to descend. In 2020, the big volume spike started around the time Bitcoin broke about that MA zone I mentioned (1W MA50 - 1D MA200). It seems like such a big volume spike is needed in order to say with some degree of certainty that Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend towards new All Time High. So what do you think about this analysis? Are such corrections the new norm of a Bear Cycle and if so can 2020 be a guide for 2022? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders target $56k based on the passBitcoin has bottomed out, completing the correction that started after the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) as it recently broke above not only its 1D MA50 but also the natural barrier of the Lower Highs trend-line as I showed on this analysis 10 days ago: The 1D MA50 is holding as a Support and this is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a formation seen on market bottoms. In BTC's recent history on the 1D time-frame, when similar patterns broke out to the upside, they targeted the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. In particular, this chart shows three prior formations (not all exactly core IH&S but we can use the analogy) that after the Resistance broke, hit the 2.0 Fib extension. This level is currently at $55900. Notice also how on all four patterns, the break-out leg displayed the same aggressive 1D RSI sequence (Channel). We can go even further back and see a November 2020 formation that also reached its 2.0 Fib on an aggressive leg: So what do you think? Do you agree with this pattern that Bitcoin's next medium-term target is its 2.0 Fib at $55.9k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN What if we're just in the 2nd historic cycle?This is an idea I've been meaning to do for some time as I was going through some comparisons of Fibonacci levels within Bitcoin's long-term Cycles. The one rough constant I found within Cycles historically that may change the scene as we know it is the number 2.6. Until now, this appears to be the number of times that the phases since August 2015 are longer than their respective before that date. I will go into more detail what I mean by that. * The 1st rally phase from July 2010 to the June 2011 High can be compared with the 1st rally phase of August 2015 to the December 2017 High. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former * The Pull-back phase of June 2011 to October 2011 is comparable to the Pull-back phase of December 2017 to December 2018. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former As a result we can assume that these two form the start of two separate MEGA CYCLES, instead of the traditional notion that BTC is already on its 4th Cycle. If we keep the same constant of the Cycle 2 separate phases being 2.6 times longer than their respective phases of Cycle 2 then we can assume that: * Bitcoin is currently on the 2nd Rally Phase of Cycle 2 which will be 2.6 times longer than the one of Cycle 1, thus lasting until June 2024! How how can it go? Well based on Cycle 1, whose peak was within the 1.382 and 1.5 Fibonacci extensions, that can be anywhere within $125k - $220k! * The Bear market of Cycle 1 is from December 2013 to August 2015, which is longer that the pull-back phase, thus 'feeling' more natural to be called 'Bear market'. Similarly the Bear Market of Cycle 2 should be 2.6 times longer and extend up to December 2028! I know this is the first time it is argued that Bitcoin might be in just its 2nd historic Cycle but in my opinion it does offer a fresh perspective and certainly food for thought. Do you agree with such a theory? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
33
BITCOIN repeating the July-Aug 2022 recovery. 50k next?Since the end of January, I've been comparing the correction since the November High to that of May 2021: That chart was on the 1W time-frame. Using the 4H time-frame this time, we can see how the recovery that started on the January 24 bottom is very similar to that of July - August 2021. As you see, both broke above their 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and made a top on the 1.1236 Fibonacci extension level from their last High of the correction sequence. That peak led by a Head and Shoulders pattern broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has been supporting on the long-term. This is as far as the current recovery sequence has gone as it brings us to today. The July - August recovery, consolidated within its Ichimoku Cloud but eventually formed the new Support that took it to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back occurred. The MACD sequences are so far equally similar. Does this mean that BTC can once again find Support on its Ichimoku? And if so is the 1.5 Fibonacci the next target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN The consolidation phase cheat sheetBasically, I've applied this methodology with the cyclical Fibs before but this time I've taken it a step further plotting all consolidation phases within a Bitcoin cycle based on the Fibonacci levels. Astonishingly, those are very consistent and tend to repeat themselves in each Cycle with high preciseness. As this chart shows on the 1W time-frame, each Cycle has once consolidation phase below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (green region), one above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (blue region) and the last one around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (yellow region). According to that model, BTC is currently on the 1.5 Fib consolidation phase, which based on the previous two Cycles, is the final accumulation before the ultimate parabolic rally to the peak of the Cycle. What price can that peak be at? Well this can be answered using the Fibonacci extension levels themselves. In the previous two Cycles, the Cycle Peak was priced at just above the 2.272 Fibonacci extension (measured as 0.0 Fib the bottom of the Cycle and 1.0 Fib the top of the previous Cycle). Oddly enough, this is roughly what the Fib measurements of the last consolidation phase indicate, which marks the peak on its 2.5 Fib extension (0.0 Fib the bottom of the consolidation and 1.0 Fib the top). Assuming that this pattern will continue to replicate itself as it did in the previous Cycles, we can project the next Cycle peak to roughly be within the 2.272 Fib extension of the prior peak and cycle bottom ($ 210k) and the 2.5 Fib extension of the final consolidation phase ($ 250k). How accurate do you think this model is? Do you also think that the new cyclical peak will be in the 210 -250k region? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24