Bitcoin Roadmap!!!==>>Short termAfter the tension between Iran and Israel , Bitcoin started to fall and once again fell below 21_SMA(Weekly) and 200_SMA(Daily) .
In previous posts , I warned you about the fall of Bitcoin , and I hope it was useful.
Bitcoin is currently approaching the Resistance zone($62,860-$62,110) and 21_SMA(Weekly) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin is completing wave 4 . The main wave 4 structure is most likely a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) . If Bitcoin breaks the support lines , we can confirm the end of wave 4 .
I expect Bitcoin to break down to at least the Support zone($60,000-$59,100) in the coming hours.
Fundamental analysis : On-chain data shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses has recently dropped sharply . This decrease started in March 2024 and is the biggest drop since 2021 . This trend could be a bearish sign for Bitcoin .
⚠️Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($62,860-$62,110) and go above $63,460, we should wait for Bitcoin to rise again.⚠️
⚠️ Note: Tensions between Iran and Israel can still have an impact on Bitcoin and other assets. If Israel wants to react to Iran's attacks, we should expect a further drop in Bitcoin, so in these days, more than ever, observe capital management.⚠️
What is your idea about Bitcoin, more dump or, again, pump❗️❓
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
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Bitcoinsignals
Bitcoin's Bearish Momentum Builds: Could 55k Be the Next Target?On Sunday, I shared an article expressing my view that Bitcoin might remain in a range for an extended period. As expected, whenever someone suggests something other than Bitcoin rising, critics are quick to respond.
However, Bitcoin has since broken below its local support and dipped to the 60k level. Looking ahead, I expect the decline to continue, with BTC/USD likely to fall well below 60k.
Currently, the 63k zone is acting as resistance, and any rallies into this area present potential selling opportunities for speculative traders.
A reasonable target for this downtrend could be around 55k, with the invalidation of this bearish scenario occurring if Bitcoin breaks back above the 65k level.
BITCOIN The 'March-October' effect kickstarting an insane rally.Back in August we were first to discover and bring to you the 'March - October' effect (see chart below) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which is what every one is talking about now as we've started the month of October yesterday and the final quarter (Q4) of the year:
As you can see, this is nothing more than a consolidation that the market tends to make within this 6-month range that ends on October, which kick starts an aggressive rally. That was the case in 2020 (would be more flawless if the COVID crash hadn't distorted the chart) and more recently in 2023. Note that historically October shows gains of around +21.00%.
What we can additionally keep from this chart is that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held on three 1W candle tests since the August 05 Low and that provides the base for a potential October 2024 - March 2025 rally.
March 2025 has high chances of forming the peak of the rally as it historically tends to tops such Bullish Legs and then starts consolidation phases. That was the case on March 2024, March 2023, March 2021 and (as mentioned) if it weren't for the COVID flash crash, would have been most likely the case for March 2020.
All in all, even though the first two days haven't been ideal, we expect October to prepare the foundation for an incredible rally, especially on its last 2 weeks, a rally that might very well reach as high as $150000 before it enters a correction again.
But what do you think? Will October start such a rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>End of Rally!!Bitcoin moved as I expected in the previous post and started to rise after breaking the Resistance zone($64,140-$63,820) .
Bitcoin was accompanied by two pieces of good news in the last 24 hours:
PayPal Opens Crypto Trading for US Businesses.
BlackRock Sees Highest Monthly ETF Inflow as US Bitcoin Holdings Climb.
Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($67,380-$64,880) near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and in the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave C . ( Actually, I think Bitcoin is still in corrective waves ).
Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
The CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D chart is moving in the Heavy Support zone , near the Support lines and the lower line of the Descending Channel . I expect USDT.D% to attack at least the upper line of the descending channel in the coming hours.
As a result, I expect Bitcoin to decline to at least the lower line of the ascending channel and Fill the CME GAP CME:BTC1! , and if this line and Support zone($64,140-$63,820) are broken, we should expect Bitcoin to decline to at least $63,000 .
⚠️ Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance zone($67,380-$64,880), we can expect BTC pump to near $69,000. ⚠️
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bitcoin & some Sunday thoughtsAt this moment, I’m long Bitcoin, just like many others out there who are hoping for the next all-time high.
The dream of Bitcoin breaking its historical peak is alive, but there’s this lingering question I can’t ignore: what if it doesn’t happen?
It’s worth considering a scenario that no one really talks about — what if Bitcoin doesn't break out to new highs and instead stays in a range between $50k and $70k for the next few years?
We've seen this play out before in other markets. Take gold, for example, between 2020 and 2024. After its big run-up, it stayed in a range, teasing breakouts but taking years before finally breaking through its previous all-time high.
What If Bitcoin Enters a Prolonged Range?
The idea that Bitcoin might simply range trade between key levels for a long period is not that far-fetched. The fact that we now have Bitcoin ETFs isn't necessarily a bullish argument. After all, ETFs exist for gold too, and that didn’t prevent gold from ranging for several years.
Similarly, the argument that institutional investors are buying Bitcoin also isn’t a guarantee of a breakout. Big players have been accumulating gold for years, and yet, the price didn't explode immediately. Instead, it moved in a sideways range, frustrating long term bulls, until it was ready for a sustained move.
The Danger of Fake Breakouts
Bitcoin is notorious for its spike-like moves that give traders hope of a breakout, only to reverse in the opposite direction shortly after. It’s entirely possible that in the coming months or years, we could see multiple fake breakouts to the upside, triggering excitement that "this is it," only for Bitcoin to quickly retrace, leaving traders caught off-guard.
The same thing could happen with downward spikes that make people think the bull market is over, only for Bitcoin to bounce back into its range.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s potential to enter a prolonged range, despite the ETF and institutional buying, is a real possibility. The key takeaway is that traders and investors should be prepared for both scenarios: the explosive breakout everyone hopes for, but also the chance that Bitcoin could just as easily trade sideways for years, keeping everyone guessing.
As always, the market will do what it wants, and our job as traders is to remain adaptable, keep emotions in check, and make the best decisions based on what we see, not just what we hope for.
BITCOIN When Yuan gains Bitcoin shines. And it's already startedBitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started to break-out last week as it closed the first 1W candle with a Lower High in 6 months. Since the August 05 bottom, we've been seeing a strong bullish build up on BTC and the reason may be simpler than you thought.
As this 1W chart shows, historically when the USDCNY pair (red trend-line) tops by forming Lower Highs and starts declining (aggressively), Bitcoin always initiates its Parabolic Rally phase.
This basically means than when the Yuan gains strength, Bitcoin shines. The USDCNY's previous Cycle in particular, is virtually identical to the current one (2022 - 2024). All the above indicate that we may be on the verge and witnessing the start of BTC's most powerful part of the Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Will a continuous fall on USDCNY fuel an aggressive rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN making a huge break-out as we speak.A little more than a week ago (September 17, see chart below), we made clear that if Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above July's Lower Highs trend-line (the Descending Triangle's Top), it would be a major bullish break-out for the long-term:
And so it did and today we witness another strong daily rise as the price broke above the August 25 65000 High, cementing and confirming all bullish break-out bias.
** Similar break-out happened 1 year ago **
What's even more interesting is that we saw almost the exact same break-out a year ago on October 01 2023, when BTC again broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just after the Lower Highs break-out of an identical Descending Triangle.
It is remarkable that the market was also on a 6-month consolidation phase at the time, with a clear Resistance and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The bottom was priced exactly when a 1D Death Cross was completed, just like the current phase did on August 05.
** 6-month Resistance break leading to +200% rise **
After a quick 10-day consolidation following the Lower Highs break-out, the 2023 fractal then 'attacked' the 6-month Resistance Zone and broke it aggressively, confirming the emergence of a violent Channel Up that, after almost a +200% rise, it would take Bitcoin to March's All Time High.
** Fed and U.S. elections immensely bullish **
With the Fed having started a new Rate Cut Cycle last week with an aggressive -0.50% cut and the U.S. Presidential Elections in November historically being a huge bullish event (as explained in one of our recent publications), there is no reason not to expect a similar rally.
We are expecting to see $95000 towards the end of the year.
So what do you think? Is this a huge bullish break-out for Bitcoin and if so, can we experience a an October 2023 - March 2024 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin could finally make a moveBitcoin has been trading in a very tight range for the past week, showing little volatility and movement. This period of consolidation typically suggests that the market is indecisive, with neither bulls nor bears managing to take control. However, today there seems to be a bit more momentum, and it looks like Bitcoin might be preparing to break out of this range, potentially breaching the upper boundary.
If the price manages to break through this resistance, we could see an acceleration towards higher levels, with a potential target around 68k.
Bitcoin Analysis==>>Bull Trap==>>Short termBitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($64,140-$63,820) and 200_SMA(Daily) .
I expect Bitcoin to at least drop to the Support zone($62,720-$62,350) after it passes a Bull Trap. And if the Support zone($62,720-$62,350) breaks, we should wait for Bitcoin to attack the lower line of the ascending channel .
Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance zone($64,140-$63,820), we can expect more pump to the next Resistance zone($66,130-$64,900)
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Trump or Harris?? For BITCOIN the elections only need to happen!Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.
As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections but in fact it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican).
Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result. That was on all Cycles the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way' etc, so it makes sense.
What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections:
November 06 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later
November 08 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later
November 03 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later
This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it. And based on the November 05 2024 elections, historically the minimum time it could time for BTC to reach a new Cycle top, would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to get the boost of its life after the U.S. elections? And if yes, is it realistic to expect a top around November 2025?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT / BREAKOUT THE DESCENDING CHANNEL - 4HBTCUSDT / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
1. August Price Movements:
- Early August: The price declined by 29.54%.
- Mid-August: The price increased by 32.55%.
2. September Price Movements:
- Early September: The price declined by 18.96%.
- Mid-September: The price increased by 14.37%.
Technical Analysis:
1. Current Market Condition:
The asset is under bullish pressure following a breakout from a channel , As long as the price remains above 60.767, the bullish momentum is expected to continue.
2. Upward Condition:
- Target 1: If the price trades above 60.767, it's expected to rise to 65.015.
- Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 65.015, the next target is 69.573.
3. Downward Condition:
- If the price falls below 60.767, it suggests a potential decline:
- Target 1: A decline to 56.154.
- Target 2: If it breaks below 56.154, further decline is expected to 52.679.
Bitcoin Needs Correction==>>Filling CME GapsBitcoin started pumping after the announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate ( The Federal Reserve lowered the US Federal Funds Rate by 0.5% to 5.00%. ).
Considering that lowering Funds Rate is potentially good for the cryptocurrency market, lowering Funds Rate while the US government continues to print and spend money is a big mistake. I predict that investors may prefer bonds to riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies as interest rates fall.
Bitcoin is currently moving in the Resistance zone($63,500-$61,460) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , near the 21_SMA(Weekly) and 200_SMA(Daily) , Yearly Resistance(3) and upper lines of the Ascending Channel .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
Before drawing a better conclusion, let's take a look at the USDT.D% and BTC.D% charts.
USDT.D% is moving near the Support zone , the lower line of the Descending Channel and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . I expect USDT.D% to rise at least to the Resistance zone again, bringing down the Bitcoin price .👇
BTC.D% is moving in a Heavy Resistance zone. According to Elliott's wave theory , BTC.D% seems to be completing the main wave 5 with the Ending Diagonal . I expect BTC.D% to start its downward trend soon, which could cause Bitcoin to fall more than other tokens .👇
Based on the above explanation, I expect Bitcoin to at least drop to the Support zone($60,000-$59,100) and Support lines and fill the CME Gaps .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($63,500-$61,460), we should expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $65,000.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN: This May Be Your Last Chance Before Exploding to UpsideBitcoin can go up to 65k to complete the wedge, but every uptrend has to be corrected, that's the nature of the market . if wedge broken i expect the price can falling to 61K !
And we have to wait for failure so that the wedge is not broken, as if there is no wedge!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin Analysis==>> Pump to $59,000==> Short termBitcoin is currently moving in the Support zone($55,780-$54,550) near the Support lines and 100_SMA(4H-TF) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin is completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $59,000 after breaking the Resistance line .
Note: We can expect more dumps if Bitcoin breaks the Support zone($55,780-$54,550).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN ahead of a major bullish break-out with 90k targetBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today forcefully above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern since July.
With buying pressure coming aggressively after the 2nd rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in just 1 month, if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs, we will have a strong break-out buy signal for the rest of the year at least.
In that case, we see the emergence of a Channel Up similar to the one that preceded March 2024, as a real possibility to test the 6-month Resistance Zone before the U.S. elections, then technical pull-back going into the event and then resuming the uptrend for the rest of the year.
The Target can be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at $90000.
But what do you think? Can this potential Lower Highs break-out be the golden ticket to break out of this 6-month consolidation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Bearish Harmonic Patterns==>>Crab & SharkBitcoin moved as I expected in yesterday's post .
Bitcoin is currently moving in the Resistance zone($60,080-$59,400) , near the Resistance lines and the 50_SMA(Daily) .
It also seems that Bitcoin can potentially form the Bearish Crab Harmonic Pattern and Bearish Shark Harmonic Pattern .
After breaking the small Support zone , I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($58,000-$56,600) again.
Note: We can expect more pumps if Bitcoin breaks the Resistance line (over $61,000).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Wake me up when September ends...Yes. Green Day's famous song suits Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just find under these circumstances. What are they?
Well, it is pure seasonality along its Cycles. This chart is simple. After every Halving since July 2016, Bitcoin enters a phase of choppy trade, with high volatility but it manages to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact and support.
Then on the first week of October, it starts the Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. This has been confirmed on the past two Cycles and so far on this one, we have already got the Post Halving Chop, while the 1W MA50 was tested and held twice. With October only 3 weeks away, it appears that (if this model keeps repeating itself) we are preparing for a very strong rally that will be difficult to catch if you don't position yourself now.
But do you think? Is October ready to deliver? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> Bullish Flag PatternBitcoin started to rise well from near the Support line and the Support zone($55,780-$54,550) again.
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin completed the main wave 4 with Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin has succeeded in breaking the upper line of the Bullish Flag Pattern .
We can also see the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern , which can be a sign of the completion of Bitcoin correction or the main wave 4 .
I expect Bitcoin to break the Resistance zone($58,000-$56,600) and 100_SMA(4-hour TF) in the coming hours and rise to at least the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below the Support zone($55,780-$54,550), we should expect Bitcoin to dump to $51,000(at least).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Will the negative correlation with DXY make it rally?Exactly a year ago (September 25 2023, see chart below) we published a comparative analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
** Negative correlation and the Fed next week **
We argued of the natural negative correlation the two have and BTC rose immediately to its impressive October 2023 - March 2024 rally, just when DXY got rejected at the top of its Megaphone pattern.
We believe that, only a few days before the Fed cuts the Interest Rates next Wednesday for the first time in years, it is useful to update this chart.
** Not just about the DXY **
As mentioned, this correlation shows principally the negative nature between the two financial assets but there are other parameters involved also. You can see that from late January 2024 to mid-March 2024, DXY started rising but BTC didn't decline, instead it posted an insane rally, which was solely attributed to the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs.
As this move cooled down, the market started correcting the rally's mania and even though the DXY started a strong decline in late June, BTC didn't raise but instead entered a 50k - 70k range because of the strong correction on the stock market.
** So what's next? **
So the obvious question that arises, is 'what's coming next for Bitcoin'? Well as you realized, that can be answered only in relation to the stock market and DXY moves. BTC is sitting currently on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while the DXY on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Technically, if the DXY rebounds on its 1W MA200, Bitcoin should decline and vice versa if DXY breaks its 1W MA200 (would be the first time since January 10 2022), Bitcoin should rally. However that also depends on what the stocks do.
As a result, we believe that if the stock market rises, BTC will follow it upwards, regardless of what the DXY does (unless it accelerates so fast upwards that will break above the 107.370 Resistance). If the DXY rebounds while stocks rise, there should be a BTC rally but just a moderate one. If DXY breaks below its 1W MA200 while stocks recover, we expect the rally to be much higher than most anticipate.
On the other hand, a further decline on stocks combined with a DXY rebound, would translate into an aggressive sell-off on Bitcoin. If however stocks keep falling while the DXY makes the historic break below its 1W MA200, we expect the July - September consolidation on Bitcoin to be extended, so the trend should be sideways until one of those parameters/ condition changes.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to take place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN It's all about the global liquidity every single time!As the Fed prepares for the first rate cut next week since it begun the cycle of hikes in February 2022, it would be very eye-opening to observe the global monetary supply and what more money in circulation could mean for Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
The light green and red candles (top) illustrate the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) comprising of the FED, TGA, RRP, ECB, PBC, BOJ, BOE and other Central Banks. It tracks and measures exactly what it says, the liquidity/ monetary supply/ money in circulation around world economies.
When central banks cut rates, they essentially print more money, flooding the system with cash that devalues the currency already in circulation. When that happens, it is easier for corporations and/or individuals to access more money through loans etc, thus increasing their spending/ buying/ investing capacity. Principally, this means that it is easier for investors to buy riskier assets, which lead to value increases. In that category fall stocks and cryptocurrency.
As this chart shows, it is no surprise that every time the GLI starts rising, Bitcoin (candles at the bottom) rallies. More specifically, when Liquidity drops and flattens, it creates BTC's Bear Cycle and when it breaks above its Resistance, BTC starts the rally phase of its Bull Cycle.
This time, having experienced the dramatic FED rate hikes that brought us back to pre 2008 Housing Crisis levels, the GLI experienced a stronger drop and instead of flattening, it created a Wedge with Lower Highs as its Resistance.
GLI is now exactly on this Lower Highs trend-line and if broken, we might have a break-out similar to the Resistance break-outs of the previous Cycles, thus initiating the Parabolic Rally on Bitcoin.
Do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin is Ready to Attack to Resistance zone==>>Short termBitcoin is currently moving in the Resistance zone($55,720-$54,550) .
According to the Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed main wave 4 with the Double Three Correction(WXY) .
Also, in terms of Classic Technical Analysi s, Bitcoin is moving in a Symmetrical Triangle on the 15-minute time frame. The symmetrical triangle is the Continuation Pattern .
I expect Bitcoin to break the Resistance zone($55,720-$54,550) in the coming hours after breaking the Upper line of the Symmetrical triangle .
If you want to know more about Bitcoin, please look at the below post:
Note: If Bitcoin breaks the uptrend line, we can expect more dumps.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN The Ultimate Cyclical Buy & Sell Blueprint! MUST SEE !!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been basically trading sideways for the past 6 months following the massive surge at the start of the year due to the introduction of the BTC ETF. There might be no better way to illustrate this 6-month ranged trend than the current chart on the 1W time-frame.
** Buy-Hold-Sell Zone **
On this chart we depict BTC's Cycles in terms of Zones of BUY-HOLD-SELL. As you can see the first two Cycles placed their previous tops just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, while the most recent one just below the 0.382 Fib.
** When to Buy **
We've found that the 1.0 - 0.786 (Green) Fib Zone is usually the best Zone to Buy, despite the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) investors may have at the time due to the concluding Bear Cycle. All these emotions are normal to have under those circumstances but it's those that traders need to filter out and make the cold decision to buy.
** When to do nothing **
The 0.618 - 0.382 (Blue) Fib Zone is where investors are encouraged to do nothing and just Hold BTC, despite the temptation to sell and take profits after the first strong rallies of the new Bull Cycle or at times when volatility hits the market and disbelief of Bull Cycle continuation makes its presence.
** When to Sell **
The 0.236 - 0.0 (Red) Fib Zone is the best Zone to Sell, even if successive rallies hit euphoria to very high levels making investors expect/ hope that the Bull Cycle will continue to higher and higher levels.
** So where are we now? **
So assuming that the current Cycle will have the previous top just below its 0.382 Fib (such as the previous Bull Cycle 2019 - 2021), we can clearly see the potential Zones of Action.
The 1.0 - 0.786 Fib Zone (Buy) was from the moment of the 15.5k Bear Cycle bottom until Bitcoin roughly broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again. Then it flashed its Buy Signal every time the March - October 2023 consolidation bottomed and pierced through the 0.786 Fib.
It becomes also obvious that the recent 6-month consolidation (March 2024 - now) we talked at the start is nothing but the usual cyclical Hold Action (0.618 - 0.382 Fib) for Bitcoin. In fact, as you can see, this sideways trading has been taking place at the upper level of the Hold Zone within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fib.
** Start selling at 100k? **
With the 1W MA50 tested again last week (2nd time since the first week of August) and so far holding, the market is making a case that we are in cyclical terms on the 'No-Action' region of the Cycle, and most likely shouldn't sell despite the disbelief and fear that the recent 6-month ranged trend may have caused. The time to start selling, if the model is materialized, will be at exactly $100k (0.236 Fib) and potentially lasting up to just below the $200k mark (0.0 Fib).
But what do you think? Do you like this Buy-Hold-Sell Zone classification? Are you expecting this model to repeat the cyclical activity of past Cycles and if so, will you start selling at $100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin's Price Struggles: A Bearish Short-Term OutlookAfter dipping to 50k in early August, Bitcoin staged a recovery and climbed to 65k. However, the bullish momentum lacked follow-through, as buyers were unable to push past the resistance of a large flag pattern that has kept Bitcoin in a corrective phase for months.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s price pulled back down from 65k, initially forming what looked like a falling wedge—a potential bullish reversal pattern.
Unfortunately, this formation did not hold, and Bitcoin experienced another breakdown.
Currently, the short-term outlook is bearish, with resistance around the 55,500-56k zone.
Short-term traders may consider selling in this range, targeting a move back to 50k if a new leg downward materializes.
This bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price stabilizes above the 58k level.