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BITCOIN The consolidation phase cheat sheetBasically, I've applied this methodology with the cyclical Fibs before but this time I've taken it a step further plotting all consolidation phases within a Bitcoin cycle based on the Fibonacci levels. Astonishingly, those are very consistent and tend to repeat themselves in each Cycle with high preciseness. As this chart shows on the 1W time-frame, each Cycle has once consolidation phase below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (green region), one above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (blue region) and the last one around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (yellow region). According to that model, BTC is currently on the 1.5 Fib consolidation phase, which based on the previous two Cycles, is the final accumulation before the ultimate parabolic rally to the peak of the Cycle. What price can that peak be at? Well this can be answered using the Fibonacci extension levels themselves. In the previous two Cycles, the Cycle Peak was priced at just above the 2.272 Fibonacci extension (measured as 0.0 Fib the bottom of the Cycle and 1.0 Fib the top of the previous Cycle). Oddly enough, this is roughly what the Fib measurements of the last consolidation phase indicate, which marks the peak on its 2.5 Fib extension (0.0 Fib the bottom of the consolidation and 1.0 Fib the top). Assuming that this pattern will continue to replicate itself as it did in the previous Cycles, we can project the next Cycle peak to roughly be within the 2.272 Fib extension of the prior peak and cycle bottom ($ 210k) and the 2.5 Fib extension of the final consolidation phase ($ 250k). How accurate do you think this model is? Do you also think that the new cyclical peak will be in the 210 -250k region? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BTCUSD bullish outlookHello traders, let's take a look at the technical aspect of BTC. BTCUSD was moving in a descending channel for weeks before reaching the low at around 32890.00. BTC surged on Monday and broke out of this falling channel after Tesla announced close to $2 Billion worth of holdings in Bitcoin. On 8 hour timeframe, we see that it got stopped at a 200 Moving Average. I expect bullish momentum to resume after some little retracement towards the 100 Moving Average. I will look for long positions with first target towards 50000. Please support this idea with likes if you find this helpful. If you have different opinion, please feel free to share in the comment section below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Forexintelligence_NA
BITCOIN This unique cyclical RSI pattern shows $100k by summerThis is Bitcoin on the 4D time-frame. I have used this chart frame as it accurately displays a unique RSI formation which since August 2017 can help at identifying some distinct recurring cycles outside of the traditional historic ones on its parabolic growth curve. As you see, the measurement from a unique RSI Higher Highs pattern which forms on BTC's last High before a price peak, is approximately within 570 and 590 days. If the same sequence is repeated then the next pre-peak High should come in mid-August 2022. Assuming a modest (for BTC's standards) rise is followed, then the price could reach the $100k psychological benchmark by then. On a (much) more optimistic scenario, if BTC follows the late 2020 rally pattern, we can see Fib 1.0 from the Fibonacci Channel break. In that case, even a extension on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level is technically possible, though much less likely within the current Halving Cycle. So what do you think about this unique 4D RSI pattern? Is $100k within reach based on this model? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
52
BITCOIN vs USDT shows exactly what is happening right nowThis chart displayes BTCUSD (orange trend-line) against the USDT Dominance (grey trend-line). Naturally it offers the strongest correlation, even a better display than the DXY comparisons that I normally do. As you see even though the patterns on the two are analogous and naturally symmetrical, Bitcoin is currently outpacing the same way it did in early January 2021 and early October 2021. This overperformance is the reason BTC made an All Time High (ATH) in November, while USDT.D didn't reach as low as the February 2021 low. When this divergence occurs, a strong rally follows. Are you expecting new All Time High based on this? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
62
BITCOIN Only the 1D MA50 left to break to confirm the uptrend.This is an update to last week's analysis on Bitcoin's potential to turn bullish again within its 12-month Channel Up: The buyers have made the first decisive move towards restoring the long-term bullish trend as the Lower Highs trend-line that is practically holding since the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) broke yesterday in emphatic fashion. Note that as we discussed, the correction phase since November has been very similar with that of April - July 2021 so far. During that sequence, after the Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC also broke the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the same week and that was the final barrier before the aggressive August - November rally to new ATH. So what's your take on this? Will the 1D MA50 break and if so will it confirm a long-term uptrend? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
22
*URGENT WARNING FOR BITCOIN!*Bitcoin is attempting for the third week to close a weekly candle below the .618 Fib level. We are also trading below the EMA Ribbons which is a sign of weakness. The TD Sequential displayed a red 9 roughly a month ago which often indicates a bottom. This time the bottom was not found at that exact level. It was easy to spot by viewing the descending MFI. Bitcoin is also trading in a large head and shoulders pattern which is a really bearish pattern. We also have a one-body weekly candlestick formation which is another bearish signal. If the week does not close above the previous week this pattern will be valid and the price of Bitcoin is most likely to plummet. The pain should stop at the .786 Fib level which is located at a large support level which is found at 29-24k. Bitcoin is also trading below large VPVR nodes which means that we lost large critical levels of support. This can be seen by the decreasing buying volume and the increasing selling volume. The fact that buyers aren't stepping in at this price level indicates that further downside could be highly likely. The only bullish divergence found in this chart is the weekly MFI which is indicating a buy signal. I do not take this signal seriously due to the fact that other indicators do not support it. Therefore this bullish divergence on the MFI is less likely to play out. If support is not mounted above the EMA Ribbons confirmed by volume and bullish divergence on the MFI Bitcoin is not bullish. I am looking at 29-24k$ for BTC. Best case scenario is a break of 40k which is less likely to occur. *WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Thank you for reading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Patriick2jz
5
BITCOIN - Weekly - More pain to come Bitcoin - Weekly - As previously posted bitcoin peaked around 69k and landed down to this nice weekly demand level of 30k.. On monthly and weekly chart, we can see a clean double top reversal pattern which is calling for further downside once 30k is broken. My analysis is based on technicals, correlations and fundamentals so just because I'm showing more downside for bitcoin coming on the charts doesn't mean this is all my analysis is based on. One of the key factors for my analysis is the coming fed rate hikes this year as inflation is getting out of control in the US and Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and other major investment banks are forecasting the federal reserve to hike rate more 6 times this year. In combination to that, I see the US dollar rising (for a short time) due to these rate hikes and cryptos are priced in US dollars so a stronger dollar will ultimately bring cryptos down. Additionally, the mass adoption of crypto's in general has caused a lot of people to recklessly invest in cryptos and become bias, complacent and greedy with their crypto investments. Markets has a funny way to humble people like that. Now I'm a big supporter of cryptos and I see them growing bigger in the near future but that doesn't mean cryptos can't drop down a lot for a deep correction. Doesn't matter if big institutions have bitcoin holdings or if El-Salvador keeps buying the dips.. they will suffer for their recklessness and FOMO. Patience is a virtue and only the calm, collected, unemotional, well-informed trader/investor can make and keep huge returns from any investment. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. I am patiently waiting for bitcoin to land into a monthly demand zone around 10-12k before loading up heavy on them, at the same time I will be waiting for the US Dollar to crash later this year, so once I see the dollar crashing and bitcoin reaching for its monthly demand zone.. and there's blood in the streets.. That's when I buy.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by abm-trading
2
BITCOIN & an old DOW fractal show holding the 1W MA100 is keyBitcoin almost hit last week the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and that was enough to provide a rebound, at least on the short-term. The importance of this trend-line as a long-term Support if BTC is to recover and post a really to a new All Time High (ATH) can be further emphasized by a similar fractal formed on Dow Jones in 1994. The periods of comparison is 2020 - 2022 on BTC and 1993 - 1995 on Dow Jones. As shown on their respective 1W charts, both started off after a flash crash and recovered initially on a Channel Up. Gradually they peaked, forming the 1-2-3-4 pattern, which eventually hit the 1W MA100. Notice how even the RSI sequences are identical. Dow Jones held the 1W MA100 as Support for 3 straight weeks and then after breaking the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it never looked back. Can we see a similar rally to ATH on Bitcoin as well? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
61
BITCOIN close to fulfil the conditions for a new 3 month ralllyFollowing last week's update on the 1W time-frame where the argument was made why Bitcoin would most likely make a bottom at the Higher Lows trend-line of this long-term Channel Up, the price has indeed made a Low and started to rebound: Currently, this 1D chart, shows how close BTC is to fulfil the conditions of a new 3 month rally as per the last June - July bottom sequence. As you see, there is a Lower Highs trend-line involved, which in both cases started before the 1D Death Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)). In the case of July, when the price broke above this trend-line, there was only the 1D MA50 left to break and confirm the rally, which is where our focus should be, as Bitcoin has been trading below the 1D MA50 since November 17 2021. Another test of the Channel Up bottom before the bullish break-out, wouldn't be unrealistic at all. So what do you think about the importance of the Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA50? Will Bitcoin start a new rally once it breaks those levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
3
BITCOIN's LMACD model from 2020 was spot on. 100k still in play?This is an update to a May 2020 analysis that I posted when Bitcoin was still valued at $9000, recovering from the March 2020 COVID crash. It offered great insight on the concept of Diminishing Returns and even though at the time quite a few were familiar with the Theory of Lengthening Cycles, I introduced the LMACD model that put everything in context. Click play and draw your own conclusions: First of all look at how accurately the price got rejected in April 2021 at the top of Bitcoin's historical Parabolic Channel. The reason was that within the current Cycle, the late 2020 - early 2021 rise was 'a little too high too soon'. The recovery after July 2021 and the new All Time High in November 2021 confirmed this idea, that April was not the top of the Cycle but got rejected because BTC outpaced itself due to the high media-exposure and reached the top of its growth Channel. Now the price, after trading practically sideways for almost a full year, is now normalized and the current levels represent again its fair value. The LMACD on this 1W chart, truly puts everything in context. For a more detailed analysis, click on my May 2020 post. The idea behind it is that the Diminishing Returns are illustrated on the LMACD which tops and bottoms each time on a different Triangle while BTC tops and bottoms within its Parabolic Channel. See Triangle 1 (blue), Triangle 2 (red) and Triangle 3 (yellow), which the LMACD entered in February 2021. There is still a pending top to be made on this Yellow Triangle 3 and the LMACD is still far from it, meaning that the Cycle could indeed be lengthened once more with returns diminished and it may very well top towards the end of 2022. That means that BTC's psychological landmark of $100k may still be in play and may not even be the Cycle's Top. So what do you think about the LMACD Model? Does it 'owe' Bitcoin one last top at $100000 before the Cycle peak? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BNC:BLX
by TradingShot
38
₿ITCOIN - BEGINNING OF AN UPTREND OR MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME 💸Bitcoin bounced off the support zone which coincides with an ascending trendline and is now retracing towards the short-term resistance zone. A break above the resistance will confirm bullish bias and the price will rally towards Target 1 (55,000) initially. There is still a possibility that the price could drop back to the trendline support before gathering bullish momentum to break the resistance and rally towards our target. Should the price break below the trendline, we could see 26000 before initiating new buy setups.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DennisDims
Bitcoin vs S&P: Is Bitcoin Leading The Market?There has been a lot of talk about the Bitcoin correlation with the S&P. So, I wanted to see what the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P has been over the last few months. Here is what I saw: The scale of this charts comparison isn't super important. But the general movements and relative time frames are super interesting. imo Sept 29th - Oct 20th: Bitcoin started a 21 day move to the upside. This move took Bitcoin to a new all time high on Oct 20th. For the first 14 days of this run, the S&P remains range bound. Oct 13th - Nov 8th: S&P makes a 21 day run to new all time high. During this time Bitcoin generally ranges. However it briefly peaks to a slightly new all time high on Nov 8, 9 and 10. Nov 10th - Present: Bitcoin maintains a downward trajectory. Nov 10th - Jan 4th, 2022: The S&P is generally range bound, but trends upwards, peaking into new all time highs a few times. Reaching its peak on Jan 4th. Jan 4th - Present: S&P begins and maintains a downward trajectory; 55 days after Bitcoin began its downward move. It could be argued that Bitcoin is actually leading the S&P. But how? It raises some fascinating questions: Could it be that the crypto market is evolving rapidly enough, that it actually now moves in front of a behemoth like the S&P? Is Bitcoin becoming a rapid bellwether of global market sentiment? Will we see another diversion in the short to medium term, with Bitcoin leading the recovery move, while the S&P continues to correct?
SP:SPX
by white_fox_crypto
BITCOIN Are we inside a mini cycle?I will keep this post short as it is just speculation between fractals. However as you see the whole 2021 price action for Bitcoin is similar to the two years of 2018 - 2019. Higher Lows (green bases) with the last Low breaking an MA supportive trend-line to fake potential for an even bigger correction but eventually that formed the Bottom and kick-started a rally. The 1D RSI sequences are also quite similar. A noticeable difference is that 2018 - 2019 was on Lower Highs, while 2021 on Higher Highs. What do you think? Are these two fractals comparable? If so, is BTC inside a mini cycle that has reached its bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
53
Fractal of Doom Part 2Check out the TA below first . At the time didn't think of it much but then I took a closer look and what I found is the most amazing mirror fractal from the 2018 Bear market. God dam its hard to swallow this one , seems we have been in a distribution phase all along. Mirror fractal with the double top divergence exactly the same unreal question is do we get the retrace up to 0.618 before dumping again , if so Febauary will be a green month followed by dump mid March 2022. The fractal from 2018 -_-
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sporia
4
BITCOIN ChannelUp & bearish MACD. How has it traded in the past?The talk of the week in the cryptomarket from a technical perspective is the fact that the current weekly candle (time-frame on the chart is 1W) made direct contact with the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the long-term Channel Up that started after April's high last year (2021). Since that High the MACD has been descending on Lower Highs. Interestingly enough, this very same pattern (price on Channel Up with a descending MACD), has been formed another 3 + 1 times in the past. Let's see how BTC performed under this set of conditions. The most recent example was the May - October 2020 Channel Up on a descending MACD. That resulted in a bullish break-out. Before that, the January - April 2017 on a descending MACD. That also resulted in a bullish break-out. The third long-term Channel Up on a descending MACD was formed within November 2015 - March 2016. Even though the break-out traded sideways for another 2 months, the price eventually broke higher. On the other hand, the April - June 2014 Channel Up, broke to the downside but a major difference is that the MACD was ascending and not descending. In summary, we have 3 times in the past that a similar BTC Channel Up on a descending MACD broke to the upside, and 1 time when it didn't but the MACD was ascending. As a result we can argue that the only time such Channel Up pattern failed was not when the MACD was descending. Historically then the probabilities lean heavily towards making a new All Time High and not a Lower Low. What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN nightmare fractal to $23000 and below. Realistic or not?Few words on Bitcoin's latest fall as the new week seems continues with the same kind of mass selling as the previous. As the stock market is tumbling too, I run into an S&P500 fractal that might be applicable to BTC's price action since the April High. This S&P fractal take us back to the January 2018 High. That was the time when the U.S. and China started a trade war with tariffs and bands imposed by both sides. As the S&P chart on the right side (both on the 1W time-frame) shows, the index entered a 2 year Megaphone pattern. On its first sell-off it was initially supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), then the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and finally the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which broke though during the March 2020 COVID flash crash. Bitcoin (left side) has been trading inside a similar pattern since the April 2021 High. The 1W MA50 supported in June - July 2021 and currently the price is approaching the 1W MA100. A break there could set in motion another flush crash towards the 1W MA200 similar to S&P500's December 2018 crash. If that holds, it would largely confirm those long-term Megaphone bias. Do you think this comparison is realistic and a Lower Low leg is expected near $23000 or even below? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
Is this the time to buy Bitcoin?Bitcoin has collapsed at least with more than 50% from its all time high of 69000 and at the time of writing Bitcoin is trading around 34400.00, ahead of its the 30000 historical support level. We could see Bitcoin reacting at this level send price back up. From my point of view, Bitcoin is just ranging and resting from its bull run and very soon we would see the bulls roar again. I will wait patiently for bullish reversal signs before buying Bitcoin. This may take days or even weeks to develop. One mistake to avoid is jumping in immediately when it approaches the support level. That is like trying to catch a double edged sword that is falling. We need to wait for it to cool off and see if there are some sort of bullish reversal signs. I made an example what happened in May 2021 when price hit the same level (30000), price hesitated to rise and it consolidated around the level for almost 70 days before rising. In the similar way, I will give it days or even weeks before making any decision. For sure Bitcoin Hodler's patience had been put to the test and what is ahead will not only test our patience but it will also test our discipline and self control to be able to wait for the right time to get in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Forexintelligence_NA
BITCOIN hit the 1W EMA100!Is this the smoothest Bear Cycle ever?Bitcoin hit yesterday the EMA100 on the 1W time-frame (blue trend-line), ringing bells of April 2020. Why? Because this was the last time (on the April 20, 2020 1W candle to be exact) that BTC hit that level. That was a special time in history as Bitcoin (along with the rest of the global markets) was recovering from the March 2020 COVID led crash. Excluding this pandemic crash and under non-irregular events market conditions, the last time Bitcoin hit the 1W EMA100 from above was on the November 18 2019 1W candle. Along with the MA100 (green trend-line), they held as Supports and by January 2020 the market started to recover until the eventual COVID crash. ** The importance of the 1W EMA100 and MA100 ** It is easy thus to understand the important of the 1W EMA100 and MA100. The current chart very clearly displays their significance as pivot agents of Bear Cycles. During the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018), a break below (better yet a full closing of a 1W candle) was followed by the despair sell-off. That sell-off was in both cases (January 12 2015 and November 19 2018 1W candles) the closing sequence of the Bear Cycle that made the eventual bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). What is equally useful to pay attention to is a potential MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross, i.e. the MA100 crossing below the EMA100. This formation during the previous two Bear Cycles (2014 and 2018) took place 3-4 weeks before the eventual Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200. Looking closely to this pattern will offer us a practical advantage to fairly accurately time the bottom. ** So is this a Bear Cycle ** Well the 1W RSI would certainly provide the basis to regard this as a Bear Cycle. As you see the RSI topped in the past two Bear Cycles on the November 25 2013 and December 11 2017 candles. In the current cycle, that RSI top took place on the January 04 2021 candle. ** It may be the smoothest Bear Cycle in Bitcoin's history ** So treating this with Bear Cycle status, it may indeed be the smoothest ever. Why? Well apart from the fact that the previous two corrected roughly -85% from their peaks and currently the 1W MA200 is less than -70% from the current peak, we had basically two tops with more than 200 days between them one in April 2021 ($65000) and the other in November 2021 ($69000). Another interesting fact to consider is that the previous two Bear Cycles lasted for 59 and 52 weeks (413 and 364 days) respectively, with their start being the absolute price peak which coincided with the RSI peak. ◾ The most recent RSI peak was on the January 04 2021 1W candle. If we use that as the starting point of the Bear Cycle then a maximum of 59 weeks (duration of the 2014 Bear Cycle ends on February 21 2022. ◾ If we count the start of this Bear Cycle from the April 12 2021 1W candle (first top), and use the 59 week max, then the Cycle ends on the May 30 2022 weekly candle. ◾ If instead we take the 52 week minimum duration of the 2018 Bear Cycle and model it on the April 12 2021 top, then the Cycle ends on the April 11 2022 1W candle. Another critical mark to consider is the 1W RSI 30.000 level. On both previous Cycle bottoms (January 12 2015 and December 10 2018 candles respectively) the RSI marginally broke below the 30.000 level and rebounded immediately to mark the end of the Bear Cycle and the start of the new Bull Cycle. ** Conclusion ** Bitcoin is currently testing the 1W EMA100 (blue). A closing below that trend-line will most likely follow with a breach of test of the MA100 (green). Keep an eye for a weekly close below those. If it doesn't take place then we may see a rebound similar to January 2020. If the price does close below, then look for the MA100/ EMA100 Bearish Cross that may be followed by the eventual market bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and an RSI value of 30.000. So what is your opinion on this analysis? Do you think this Bear Cycle is the smoothest ever in Bitcoin's history and could we see a bottom on the 1W MA200 if the MA100 pair fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
78
Bitcoin heading towards 30000As I mentioned in previous analysis Bitcoin has some support near 40000 Bitcoin respected the support and bounce about 10%. Now in previous trading session it closed below 40000 and stated trading below the same. Based on current price action 30000 level should be target of this fall. Getting any pull back signal near 30000 will be good for long term investment. On the flip side further breakdown below 30000 will crash bitcoin and you will see 20% to 30% correction near future. 30000 level is the key now.
by nmcapital44