BITCOIN on the Sine Wave Buy Zone but won't last for long!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may be under a quite strong short-term correction since the August 27 rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but based on this 2-year Cyclical Chart, it has high chances of finding Support again and start a rally similar to the two it had over this time span.
Let's start with the long-term outlook which remained bullish after BTC hit and rebounded (August 06) on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), its long-term Support since March 13 2023. The formation of the 1D Death Cross may have offset some of this optimism but on this cyclical pattern it is not a bearish sign as last time it emerged (September 11 2023), Bitcoin formed its new bottom at the time.
In fact it was inside a short-term (dotted) Channel Up, the vessel pattern which took the price from the bottom to a new +100% rally. The key parameter was the fact that the 1D MA200 broke and later was retested and held as Support. This is most likely why we are having the recent pull-back, because even though the price broke above the 1D MA200, it failed to hold.
The 1D RSI also prints a similar pattern to the previous two bottom fractals on this chart and it appears that relative to those past sequences, we are currently after the first RSI peak and pull-back. On the price action, we illustrate the relative position of now and then with circles.
The Sine Waves do perhaps the most efficient depiction of the price cyclicality, clearly displaying where Bitcoin should be bought and where sold. At the moment we are just past the most optimal Buy Entry so it the opportunity still exists but may not last for long! Another +100% rise from August's recent bottom, will see Bitcoin test the psychological benchmark of $100k.
So what do you think? Is a new rally this close, potentially timed after the Fed cuts the rates in 2 weeks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
Bitcoin Analysis==>> Reversal Patterns==>UP/UP/UPBitcoin is moving near the Support zone($58,000-$56,600) .
Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in breaking the upper line of the Falling Wedge Pattern . It is also possible to form the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern .
Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) . This wave is part of Corrective Waves .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to go UP to at least the target of the Falling Wedge Pattern .
My previous post titled " Bitcoin Analysis==>> Pumping Again==>>Short term
" is still valid
Note: If Bitcoin loses the Support zone($58,000-$56,600), we should expect Bitcoin to fall to $55,000(at least).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
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BITCOIN Heavily supported by the 1WMA50. Rally can start anytimeBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been following very closely the structural patterns of past Cycles and one analysis we did on the similarity sequences with cyclical fractals has been the following (September 19 2023):
As you can see, BTC followed the exact path we plotted and did what was expected by breaking above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). With the price basically consolidating for the past 6 months (Bull Flag/ Channel Down), it is time to revisit this successful chart and see what lies next.
With some modifications, we can see that after successfully holding the 1W MA50 on the early August test, the price should (relative to the past 2 Cycles), start the new Parabolic Rally (green Arc). We are 147 weeks (1029 days) from the previous Cycle Top and 21 weeks (147 days) since the Halving. In past Cycles that was the exact point ('we are here') where Bitcoin initiated the aggressive rise.
In all cases the 1W MA50 held, so that is the market's goal now, to keep it intact so that buyers don't lose the psychological Support level. If it holds, breaking above the $100k should be a minimum expectation, especially ahead of this month's start of an Interest Rate Cut Cycle and the U.S. elections (traditionally markets are bullish post event) in November.
But what do you think? Do you share the same kind of optimism as this chart does? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> Pumping Again==>>Short termBitcoin moved towards the Support zone($58,520-$57,100) as I expected .
Bitcoin is moving in the Support zone($58,520-$57,100) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed another Zigzag corrective wave .
I expect Bitcoin to start rising again from the Fibonacci levels to my targets .
Note: If Bitcoin loses the Support zone($58,520-$57,100), we should expect Bitcoin to fall to $55,000(at least).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
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Bitcoin Analysis==>Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic PatternAs I expected yesterday , Bitcoin went towards filling the CME Gap($61,855-$60,485) , although the structure of the trend was slightly different .
Bitcoin is currently moving near the Resistane zone($62,920-$61,460) , Resistance line , Daily Resistance(2) and 50_SMA(Daily) .
Also, the 🦀 Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic Pattern 🦀 can be formed near the Resistance line and the Resistance zone .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin is completing corrective waves after completing five bearish waves .
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $59,400 after breaking the Support line , and if this level breaks, we should expect an attack on the Support zone($63,630-$63,200) .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($62,920-$61,460) again, we should wait for Bitcoin to attack $65,000-$66,000.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Filling CME Gap==>>Short termBitcoin was accompanied by increases and decreases ( high momentum ) in the past days.
Currently, Bitcoin has reacted well to the Support zone($63,630-$63,200) .
I expect Bitcoin to rise from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and fill the upper CME Gap($61,445-$60,485) .
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
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BITCOIN The 'March-October' effect..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is taking a hit on a weekly basis as, despite last week's green candle that extended the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and hyped hopes for a new 70k test, the last two days are resetting the momentum.
Still, there is no cause for alarm as BTC has been practically consolidating since the March All Time High (ATH). And in fact, the market is no stranger to such consolidations as just as recently as last year, it was also ranged from March until October 2023, before starting the massive rally that led to the ATH.
Even in the previous Cycle, we can somewhat see a rough consolidation pattern, which if it weren't for the COVID crash 'anomaly' of February 2020, the market would again be ranged from March to October 2020. As a side-note, check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences of those fractals are, trading around the same price levels as well.
For title catchers, we can call this 'The March - October effect' and if it plays out again the exact same way it has historically, then as soon as September ends, we can be expecting one of Bitcoin's brutal Bull Cycle rallies (green Channels).
Practically we are only a month away and as you can see in the previous Bull Cycle, the main two rallies have been fairly symmetric. If the one that might start in October is proportionally as strong as the October 2023 - February 2024 one, we might be looking for at least a $150000 Target.
But what do you think? Is a massive rally only a month away and if so, could it reach $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Why holding this Support Zone for 6 months targets $100kBitcoin (BTCUSD) will close the month of August this week and the 1M candle not only rebounded aggressively on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but also held the Symmetrical Pivot Zone for the 6th straight month.
This Zone is critical because during the previous Cycle in late 2021 it served as Resistance and since the recent March 2024 break-out, it has been acting as Support.
The Bullish Waves on the 2-year Channel Up indicate that after this month closes, $100000 is well within reach.
Do you think this is the start of the 100k rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> PumpingBitcoin began to pump after Jerome Powell's speech and the possibility of interest rate cuts .
⚠️First of all, I must say that we must always keep up with the news and new events in the market, and all the analyses will never be correct; otherwise, there is no need for capital management, so we should always follow capital⚠️
Bitcoin seems to have managed to break the Resistance zone ($58,500-$57,000) , 200_SMA(Daily) , and 50_SMA(Daily) .
Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , the Bitcoin pump has invalidated the Rising Wedge pattern . The Rising Wedge pattern is a Reversal Pattern; if it Fails , it will become a Continuation Pattern .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing the main wave 4 , and the structure of the main wave 4 can be a Contracting Triangle .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $65,000 after breaking the upper line of the Contracting Triangle .
Note: Wave 4's structure is likely to change; overall, I expect the maximum correction or end of wave 4 to be at the Support zone.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> Bearish Flag PatternBitcoin pulled back to the broken Support zone($60,520-$60,120) , as I expected ( in yesterday's post ).
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
Regarding Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin seems to have formed a Bearish Flag Continuation Pattern .
I expect Bitcoin to fall again after breaking the Ascending Channel's lower line and the Support zone($58,500-$57,000) .
Bad News: Since yesterday, 785 million dollars of Bitcoin and 75 million dollars of Bitcoin have been moved by the Mt.Gox exchange, which is a significant volume.
Note: If Bitcoin goes over $60,700, the Scenario will change.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin- back to channels resistance?Since March, Bitcoin has been trading within a clear downward channel, making lower highs and lower lows. While this suggests a downtrend, it should be viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend that began in early 2023.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin needs to clear the 68k level to aim for new all-time highs. In the short term, the sharp reversal from just below 50k has been significant, and it’s possible that a higher low has formed around 56k.
However, for the next upward move to gain traction, bulls must break through the local resistance at 61.5k.
If this resistance is cleared, the price could once again test the falling trend line, which currently lies around 68k.
BITCOIN The Volatility Index is showing the way to 100kBitcoin (BTCUSD) undoubtedly shares a relationship with the Volatility Index (VIX), even though not 100% tight, being a speculative financial asset. Naturally the two are on a negative correlation, meaning that when volatility hits the market and VIX rises, BTC rises and vice versa, similar to what happens against stocks.
Following the massive volatility spike on the weeks of July 29 and August 05, VIX quickly corrected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been its pivot line since the Channel Down started 2 years ago.
Bitcoin on the other hand is already significantly above its 1W MA50, as on the week of VIX's aggressive volatility, it managed to test it and held. Opposite to VIX, Bitcoin has been trading on an upward trend, illustrated on today's analysis by a Fibonacci Channel. Initially the 1.0 Fib has been its top but then when broken, it topped on the 1.5 Fib extension.
As a result, we expect that when VIX finally closes below its 1W MA50, it will seek its 1-year Support, the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line and that will propel Bitcoin to its 1.5 Fib extension again. If that takes place towards the end of the year, we expect $100k to have been reached.
Do you think this correlation model will materialize 100k for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>FallingBitcoin was rejected from the Resistance zone($58,500-$57,000) , 50_SMA(Daily) , Upper line of the Ascending channel , and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
I expect Bitcoin to Go down to at least the lower line of the ascending channel , and maybe Bitcoin will break the support zones .
Note: If Bitcoin goes over $63,000, we should wait for Bitcoin to pump to $65,000 (at least).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin Analysis==>> Attack to Downtrend line==>>Short-termBitcoin is moving in the Support zone($58,500-$57,000) near the Downtrend line .
According to the Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its 5-wave downtrend in the 15-minute time frame .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to rise again to at least $59,200 .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $57,000, we should wait for Bitcoin to fall to $55,000 (at least).
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN 5month correction is over. Is 200k the minimum Target??Almost 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following idea on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as $400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, indicating that BTC should now resume the long-term bullish trend and make a new All Time High soon. Needless to say, the 1W MA50 has to hold, in order to support this bull trend as in all previous Cycles.
But what do you think? Has the market started the new bullish wave and if so, will it reach at least 200k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> Reversal Patterns==>>(Short term)Bitcoin moved as I expected in the previous post .
Bitcoin is currently moving in the Support zone($60,800-$56,700) and near the Support lines .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in forming a Falling Wedge Pattern , and an Inverse head-and-shoulders Pattern is possible .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least near $60,000 .
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Can it reach at least 150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last month (July) in green and even though August started on a very strong decline, the market has managed to recover most of its losses before the middle of the month.
This shows incredible buying force right on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021 All Time High (ATH). Today's study is centered around the 1M time-frame and the Bullish Crosses of the MACD. In the past 10 years, we have had this formation only 5 times, all of which during Bull Cycles.
The most recent one was in June 2023 and needless to mention, BTC had a remarkable rally (its first of the Bull Cycle) after it. From a time perspective within the Cycle, the June 2023 Cross, resembles the Bullish Crosses of November 2019 and December 2015. They were formed 25 and 23 months respectively after the High of the previous Cycle and following their formation, BTC peaked exactly 24 months (731 days) later.
The June 2023 MACD Bullish Cross was formed 19 months after the previous Cycle High, so if it follows the previous peak patterns, then Bitcoin should peak around June 2025. Symmetrically, it appears that we are currently in a above 0.786 Fib consolidation phase (blue circles) as November 2020 and February 2017.
The bullish break-outs that followed after such consolidations, initiated the Bull Cycles' 2nd rallies to the eventual ATH. If we were to make a rough projection on that high, we can look into the Channel Up since 2014. That pattern formed the Cycle Highs above it every time (red arcs), so technically we could be looking at values between 200k - 300k.
However even if we follow a 'conservative' path within the Channel Up, if BTC hits the top of that dotted Channel, it will reach a price as high as $150000, which in our opinion is a very desirable level to start taking long-term profits.
But what do you think about this whole scenario? Is the 1M MACD Bullish Cross symmetry about to start the 2nd rally of this Cycle and if yes, can it reach 150k at least? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is right on track and even stronger than previous CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has experienced a sharp drop over the past 2 weeks, causing a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which as explained in a previous analysis, this has only happened once during a Bull Cycle.
As today's idea shows though, what caused massive panic and liquidations recently, can be seen as merely a technical attempt of the market to re-adjust and harmonize what was a very aggressive bull run up until March, towards the mean, relative to past Cycles.
More specifically in the last 2 Cycles, as you can see, 630 days after the Cycle bottom, Bitcoin was trading just below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, while on the current Cycle the recent drop took place just over it. This means that the current bull run came closer to the trend of the last two, but remains more aggressive.
As a result, we expect BTC to resume the rally and continue on a more aggressive tone than in the past and by early 2025 break above 100k and possibly by next Summer reach the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level that was achieved during all past Cycles.
So what do you think? Has this BTC Cycle been normalized after the recent drop and is now ready to resume the uptrend? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Last ChanceBitcoin started to rise after the announcement of the Unemployment Claims rate and Putin's signing of the crypto mining law . However, the factors I mentioned in the post below can still cause Bitcoin to decrease.👇
Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($60,800-$56,700) and near 50_SMA(Daily) and 200_SMA(Daily) .
According to Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing the Triple Double Correction(WXYXZ) .
I expect Bitcoin to continue falling to at least the Support line after completing the corrective pattern .
Considering the Situation of Bitcoin, a Short Position is definitely better than a Long Position. Do you agree with me!?
Note: If Bitcoin can create a 4-hour or daily candle above the 200_SMA(Daily) and 50_SMA(Daily), we should expect Bitcoin to go up again.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Amazing 'Golden Ratio' correlation showing the way!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately, basically it has paused for the past 5 months the uptrend that started in late 2022. We have discovered a remarkable correlation with Gold (XAUUSD) and Russell 2000 (RUT) in the form of the GOLD/RUT ratio (blue trend-line). This correlation, which is a negative one (i.e. when BTC rises the GOLD/RUT ratio falls and vice versa), is present on a cyclical basis.
This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common. That is the following:
When the GOLD/RUT ratio peaks and starts falling by forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin tends to start its parabolic rally (green arc) of the Bull Cycle, above previous All Time Highs. This usually takes place a little before the Halving.
Right now it appears that it happened on the last Halving (mid April), assuming we see the ratio forming Lower Highs from now on. If it does, BTC will most likely start the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle. The Sine Waves that track the GOLD/RUT peak, suggest that indeed the April High may have been the new peak. It remains to be seen if Lower Highs will be formed.
What do you think will happen? Can this be BTC's "Golden ratio" that reveals the parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Short-termBitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($60,800-$56,700) and the Downtrend line .
According to the theory of Elliott Waves , Bitcoin seems to have completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) near the Resistance zone.
From a Classic Technical point of view, Bitcoin seems to have formed a Double Top Pattern .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $52,600 .
Bitcoin analysis on the daily time frame 👇
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN priced the new bottom. Strong evidence of new ATH ahead.With tensions and volatility continuing among the markets, we revisit a chart that we published almost 1 year ago (August 14, see chart below) when the market was again in a time of high volatility and was consolidating within a wide margin for a rather long period of time (April 17 2023 - August 21 2023):
Back then we stated that a huge rally was in the making and only one week later, the market delivered and BTC rose from 25k to +70k in a span of 6 months. It was the unique Bullish Cross on the 3W KTS indicator that only happens once in every Cycle that cemented our bullish projection.
BTC is now on a consolidation phase similar not only to the 2023 one (Apr - Aug) but also to the past Cycles that followed the KTS Bullish Cross. It is noticeable that there are two such consolidation phases in every Bull Cycle and currently we are inside the 2nd.
This is strong evidence suggesting that we are about to experience multiple green months in the coming quarters.
Do you agree or you feel the economic slowdown fears will prevail and break this structure? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Death Cross!?The fall of Bitcoin in the last 3-4 days has shocked everyone, first, let's take a look at the reasons for this fall :
The publication of the US employment report and the increase in the unemployment rate to the highest level in the last 3 years .
Tensions in the Middle East , the possibility of a confrontation between Iran and Israel in the coming days.
Rumors of selling Jump Trading's assets .
The Nikkei index of the Japanese stock market today fell 3,595.30 units , equivalent to -10.01% , to experience the heaviest daily decline in its history since October 1987 .
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index hit its lowest level since early July , indicating panic in the market. However, I think the Fear and Greed index will enter the Extreme Fear zone in the coming days.
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Now, let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart on the daily time frame .
Bitcoin managed to break the Support zone($60,800-$56,700) which is shown on the chart with the Resistance zone. Also, Bitcoin has broken 200_SMA(Daily) , 100_SMA(Daily) , 200_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly) , which is NOT a good sign for BTC.
Most likely, the Death Cross Sell signal by Bitcoin will happen.
Death Cross Signal : The death cross appears on a chart when an asset's short-term Moving Average(MA), usually the 50-day , crosses below its long-term moving average, usually the 200-day .
From the point of view of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that according to the momentum of Bitcoin's fall in the last 3-4 days, the continuing Descending Broadening Wedge pattern will fail, which could be a sign of the further fall of Bitcoin .
Looking at the USDT.D% chart , we can see that USDT.D% will probably increase again after a correction and attack the Resistance lines .👇
According to the explanation above, I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($49,000-$38,500) again after the correction , probably near $59,000-$60,000. If the Support line is broken, we should expect Bitcoin to fall to $42,000-$43,000 .
Note: If Bitcoin can stabilize above the resistance zone, we can expect Bitcoin to rise again, but due to possible tensions that will happen in the Middle East in the coming days, this scenario is less likely to happen.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), Daily time frame ⏰.
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