BITCOIN The 4 year Cycle of June - September..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) revisited last week more than 4-month lows and the market is again in anxiety. Righfully so but a quick look on the 4-year Cycles and what BTC has down throughout the June - September period, puts every thing again back into context.
As you can see those Jun - Sep periods of 2020, 2016 and 2012 have mostly been bullish with one correction under their belt on all three of them. More specifically, July has initiated rallies on all occasions but only 2016 saw a stronger correction and Lower Low after it.
On the current Jun - Sep period (2024), we've already made a Lower Low relative to May 01, so it is less likely to see a new one but of course it is possible. In any event, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) should technically support. As a result, the current levels for Bitcoin seem cyclically to be low risk buy entries especially on a DCA approach.
But what do you think? Will BTC make another Lower Low and replicate 2016? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN vs VIX. This is why it will rally!We usually consult the Volatility Index (VIX) when attempting to project movements on stock indices. But as recent price actions reveals, it can work equally well on predicting the trend on Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Take BTC's Channel Up for example on the 1W time-frame. VIX (black trend-line) has started a consolidation phase (green ellipse) following a strong decline in mid-April to mid-May. Since the November 2022 market bottom, VIX posts this consolidation pattern before it typically rallies.
That is technically not just some rally but the Bullish Leg of this long-term Channel Up formation. As a result, with VIX consolidating, it could only be a matter of time before Bitcoin starts the new rally to new All Time Highs.
What do you think? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this the pattern that will save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing yet another brutal sell-off today that is bringing it even closer to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As mentioned on previous analyses, the 1W MA50 is BTC's ultimate Support trend-line throughout a Bull Cycle and you can clearly see that on the right chart.
During all its Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has supported the Parabolic Rally, until it decisively broke and confirmed the new Bear Cycle. It is therefore a standard go-to signal for long-term investors.
On the 1D time-frame (chart on the left), there is an underlying Channel Up that supported the last major medium-term pull-back on September 11 and October 11 2023. We are only a few clicks from testing this Channel's bottom, which is still around $5000 above where the 1W MA50 is right now.
As mentioned previously, chances are that BTC turns sideways and approaches the 1W MA50 while it consolidates sideways and forms a bottom. Notice how the Megaphone pattern that started on the March 14 2024 High, would be ideal for materializing this scenario. Even a marginal break of the 1W MA50 doesn't constitute a long-term bearish reversal, as long as the 1W candle still closes above it (like on June 21 2021).
So while we do have our natural Cyclical Support level, do you also think that this Channel Up will save the day for BTC and stop further bleeding and the possibility of an early Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- The Good, The Bad and The UglyAs I mentioned in my previous posts, I am bullish on Bitcoin and expected a break above $71,000 with a rise to at least $85,000.
However, I always consider multiple scenarios.
In this post, I want to discuss all the potential outcomes I foresee.
The Good Scenario:
As shown in the chart, although the price dropped again from the all-time high resistance, the bulls have strongly defended the $67,000 support level that I've been emphasizing. If the price recovers and reaches the resistance level again, it is likely to break above, targeting at least $85,000.
The Bad Scenario:
In this scenario, the bulls fail to defend the $67,000 support zone. If this happens, the price will likely drop to the $60,000 zone.
The Ugly Scenario:
In this scenario, all the price action since mid-March could be viewed as a long distribution phase. If Bitcoin also loses the $60,000 support, we could see a significant decline, potentially down to around $45,000.
Bitcoin Can Go Up TemporarilyIt seems that Bitcoin has finally managed to break the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) as I expected in my previous Posts .
According to the theory of Elliot waves , the main wave 5 in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) has ended, and we should wait for corrective waves .
Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Bitcoin to rise, at least temporarily, to the target I specified on the chart.
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ), the scenario will change.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
HAPPY JULY 4th with BITCOIN hitting the 1D MA200 after 9 months!Happy July 4th everyone! A little break from the traditional stock markets but not for crypto. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in particular, just hit and broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost 9 months (October 16 2023)!
Naturally this is a very strong long-term Support level and it is even more obvious on this 1D chart, where BTC's current consolidation is similar to the one from mid- April 2023 to mid-July 2023 (blue Rectangle).
With the long-term pattern being a Fibonacci Channel Up and the 1D MACD forming a sequence similar to the bottom formation that started on August 27 2023, Bitcoin is most likely entering the long-term Support Zone.
The ultimate Support level is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but we expect to come close to that not straight away vertically but in the next month while the price might trade sideways in similar fashion to September 2023.
In any case, since the November 2022 market bottom, this kind of distance from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has been the most optimal buy entry and including the current one, we've only had 4 such opportunities.
But what do you think? Is this the right opportunity to buy heavily again on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Roadmap==>>(Update)Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100) and close to the 21_SMA(Weekly) .
According to the Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 . (The Maximum of wave 4 can be up to $65,080 , and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) can continue.)
Before the better result, let's take a look at Market Cap BTC Dominance% (BTC.D%) and Market Cap USDT Dominance% (USDT.D%) .
It seems that BTC.D% has managed to complete 5 impulse waves in the Heavy Resistance zone(60%_57%) , and we should expect BTC.D% to fall in the coming days and weeks.
USDT.D% has managed to break the Important Downtrend line , and this indicates the increase of USDT.D% and possibly the break of the Resistance zone(5.54%_4.97%) in the following days, which also confirms the fall of Bitcoin .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) again after the completion of wave 4 , and then Bitcoin will fall and at least fill the CME Gap($62,085_$60,400) .
Note: If Bitcoin can touch $65,580, the scenario will change.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin RoadmapBitcoin started to fall for the umpteenth time with the news that the Mt.Gox exchange would return Bitcoins to the losers , as if the Mt. Gox exchange would start refunding BINANCE:BTCUSDT and BINANCE:BCHUSDT from the beginning of July 2024 (almost 6 more days).
After a few months, the Fear and Greed index entered the " Fear " range again. But I think it will also enter the " Extreme Fear " range.
Bitcoin is currently moving near the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100) , the 21_SMA(Weekly) , and the lower line of the Failed Falling Wedge Pattern . ( pullback is probably being completed )
Note: Bitcoin has come below the 21_SMA(Weekly) after almost 250 days.
Note: When a reversal pattern fails, it will play a continuation role.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing the microwave 4 of the main wave 3 . If the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) breaks, we can confirm the end of wave 4.
Before concluding, let's take a look at the Market Cap USDT Dominance% (USDT.D%) chart.
USDT.D% has managed to break the Important Downtrend line , and this indicates the increase of USDT.D% and possibly the break of the Resistance zone(5.54%_4.97%) in the following days, which also confirms the fall of Bitcoin .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($61,100_$58,700) again after the completion of the microwave 4 of the main wave 3, and the break of the Heavy Support zone can coincide with the news of the refund of the Mt.Gox exchange .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($63,450_$62,100), the scenario will change.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN History rhymes and calls for as high as $300k!This is a post Halving update to the 'Fibonacci Channel blueprint' analysis we've made almost a year ago. The price action has been even more aggressive than what we expected so relevant adjustments had to be made.
On this chart, we yet again rely on the long-term time-frames of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for a more meaningful illustration of its historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price has completed 4 months of consolidation following the early March All Time High (ATH), always above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This consolidation is consistent with all previous post-Halving price actions as BTC always traded sideways and accumulated in the weeks after the Halving, in preparation for the Parabolic Rally, the Cycle's most aggressive phase.
The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
At the same time, another condition that it 'needs' to fulfil is being just below the 0.0 Fib of the Blue Channel, similar to what happened in December 2017 (just below Fib 0.0 of the orange Channel).
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib is currently a little under $300000, and as we mentioned after the consolidation of each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $300k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
As you can see, the orange (2013) and black (2020 - 2021) lines are more aggressive than the purple (2016 - 2017) but the latter is the one that, as we've posted numerous times, the current Cycle has the most similarities with. If Bitcoin follows the purple price action within the black Fibonacci Channel, then it should reach $100k by December 2024 and $300k by August 2025. If instead it transitions to the more aggressive Cycle models, then it could reach those levels much earlier.
But what do you think? Is $300k realistic within the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will people regret not buying at this stage?Around this time last year (see chart below), we analyzed yet again the similarities of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle with the one in 2014 - 2017. In fact we were among the fist channels in late 2022 to bring that up as a strong possibility and as you can see Bitcoin didn't fail to deliver:
We have entered however a stage where, as the title says, people could regret if they haven't bought already as it might be the last opportunity to do so on such low prices. The time-frame on both charts is 3D and as you can see, the MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the most optimal buy entry throughout the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle.
If the similarities continue to unfold between the two Cycles, then last week's breach of the MA50, should be the best buying opportunity at this stage. As you can see, we are proportionally at the end of the blue elliptical pattern which in early 2017 consolidated around and mostly below the former All Time High (ATH) level and then started the Parabolic Rally.
Do you think the current MA50 touch has marked the start of this rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Time to Recover?!
Bitcoin formed an inverted cup & handle formation
and broke its neckline on a daily time frame.
Such a violation is a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH)
and indicates a local bullish reversal.
The market may start recovering and reach 65000 level soon.
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BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- Could it be so simple?Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped to the crucial 60k zone and, after briefly dipping below it, quickly reversed.
Although this is a positive sign from a technical standpoint, could it really be that simple?
In my opinion, it will not be that simple.
In fact, looking at the chart, we see that Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern with the neckline just below the 60k zone.
A break below this level of support could lead to panic, causing Bitcoin to drop below 50k, where real liquidity lies.
BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>>Cup & Handle PatternBitcoin is moving near the upper line of the Falling Wedge Pattern .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in forming a Cup & Handle Pattern . ( continued pattern )
After breaking the neckline, I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the target I've specified on the chart.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin can touch $67,000 SoonBitcoin is moving in a Heavy Support zone($65,730_$64,240) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in forming a Leading Diagonal .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $67,000 after breaking the upper line of the Leading Diagonal.
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Has the ride to $250k started?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for the past 3 months (since the March High) but it is no stranger to such consolidation sequences. Since the start of the current Bull Cycle after the November 2022 bottom, consolidations have been the name of the game, as these served as accumulation phases in the absence of stronger corrections.
BTC has in fact seen similar consolidation phases historically during all previous Bull Cycles. Using the 1M RSI (black trend-line) in particular, we can see that the current consolidation, even though it happens on the All Time High (ATH) level, it is very similar to June - August 2020 and June - August 2016. During all those sequences, the 1M RSI peaked and pulled-back aggressively, even though the price was just trading sideways.
On an amazing display of symmetry, all this happened around 81 weeks (567 days) after the Bear Cycle bottom. The fact that the current consolidation is taking place on the ATH level and the two previous didn't, has to do with the fact that:
a) the last Bull Cycle was less aggressive, peaking at 'only' the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level but also because
b) the current Bull Cycle is more aggressive than expected due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF.
As you can see the Fibonacci Channel Up has been very consistent since late 2013, with the 0.0 - 0.236 Fib range serving as the Buy Zone, which is where BTC continues to trade, despite the uptrend, showcasing its enormous upward potential.
The December 11 2017 Top has been on Fib 1.0, the April 2021 on Fib 0.786, so even a mere Fib 0.5 (not even 0.618) contact at the end of the current rally, would push Bitcoin to $250000. Incredible as it may sound, this validates even the scenario of BTC following the less aggressive, recent Channel Up (blue) that started on Dec 2017. A $250k top would make an ideal technical Higher High.
But what do you think? Is $250k as easy as this model shows for Bitcoin during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Analysis==>> FallingBitcoin once again started to react strongly after entering the Resistance zone($73,800_$71,900) . Although it tried to break this zone😊.
According to the Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the Main wave 5 .
In the chart, we can also see the Sell signal between 50_SMA(Daily) and 100_SMA(Daily) (it is a Bearish sign ).
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Bitcoin to continue falling at least to My targets .
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin is Ready to Attack the Heavy Support zone!!!Bitcoin managed to break the Support zone($66,080_$65,860)(15-minute time frame) .
I expect Bitcoin to continue its decline to at least the previous low of $65,000 and likely break the Heavy Support zone($65,730_$64,240) .
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin Roadmap==>>FallingBitcoin is breaking the Important Support line .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 .
I expect Bitcoin to fall at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and attack the Support zone($65,730_$64,240) .
Note: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN Underlying trend-line coming into play.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been holding so far the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, which was the primary objective, closing all 1D candles since Friday above it, but now an underlying trend-line is coming to center stage as it got tested also on Friday successfully.
That is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the March 13 High and rejected BTC on Lower Highs initially, before transitioning to a Lower Lows Support on May 23. If that holds, the chances of a rebound towards the Resistance Zone, are amplified greatly. Practically, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, a bullish signal will emerge when the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), in which case we have a target at 72000 (bottom of Resistance Zone).
If on the other hand BTC closes a 1D candle below the underlying trend-line, prepare for 61000 (top of Support Zone) and potentially a long-term bottom formation on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that on the previous Bearish Leg (April 08 - May 01) of this 3-month consolidation structure, the price remained bearish as long as it stayed below the 1D MA50. The 4H MA50 never broke to the upside while the price was above the 1D MA50. That is why it will be a bullish signal if it breaks while BTC is above the 1D MA50.
But what do you think will happen next on the short-term? Will we see 72k or 61k first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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