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Bitcointechnicalanalysis

BTC DOUBLE BOTTOM!!Taking a look at Bitcoin on a daily timeframe i noticed something very bullish that ive somehow missed. a clear to the point double bottom has formed recently with price action showing some strength coming off of it, this overall if actually plays out is a big positive for the overall market in general! We are currently sitting inbetween the double bottom and the 0.6 FIB level, with heavy supports and resistances clearly above and below us! Keep in mind a push down below the 39616$ level invalidates the whole idea. Potentially some great buying and entry spots here for dollar cost averaging into different strong projects, Mid 39K seems like a very fair and reasonable bottom i personally would say. Looking at the bollinger bands we are currently trading in the bottom half but our first goal here to put us in a nice spot is getting back and above the midline which is currently acting as resistance, being in the top zone allows us the chance at climbing up to that top band, where as you all know by know can trigger quite the run to the upside, not only that but getting above the midline opens the door for us to reclaim the 0.6 FIB level which is a crucial spot at 44K. The Squeeze momentum indicator looks pretty good, we are coming out of a big short squeeze where soon enough we will be coming back to the midline (fingers crossed) This enables us to push into a bullish squeeze above the midline, due to us not getting a true bullish squeeze in quite some time throughout October to be exact, i think it is highly realistic that we could be seeing a massive bull squeeze soon enough, we need to see a strong push past the midline and into green territory, we need our green bars to increase day by day getting stronger and showing the rise in bullish momentum. Now the Wavetrend gives me good hope that we are going to be starting a decent leg up here soon, we recently bottom out in the buy zone and have since recovered, we currently are seeing what looks like to be a reversal happening, the wave came down slightly but is currently beginning to tick to the upside. Keep in mind that this moves slow and has relatively smooth transitions between waves, this means very minimal jagged movements and sharp turns, so what im saying in a nutshell is when we start to see a reversal play out we are not 100% but almost guaranteed to see price action respond to wherever the wave is headed, i should also point out here just like the SQZMOM we haven't seen a very strong bullish wave in quite some time, we had a decent wave but we only pushed upto the midline, what im looking for and expecting sooner than later is a strong bull wave pushing past the midline and topping out somewhere inbetween that and the sell zone! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Update!!Bitcoins really been struggling as of late and we are in some dangerous territory for price action, we are hanging out right above the 41K support level and the chances of us falling underneath here are rising everyday, realistically on this 4HR chart we don't want to see a close of course below 41K but also we dont want to see a close below our previous closes, i have marked out a box where we ideally would prefer to close in or above and we are a bit off this level but still have aprx 1 hour 20minutes until our next close. Closing below our previous closes gives some momentum to the bears and could ultimately bring us down even more, if we can't hold onto our 41K zone we are looking at 40K as our next stop. We did get our bullish cross on the MACD but its not looking so great, our MA's are pressed together and our blue MA is actually trailing into our orange now giving the bears an easy shot for a bear cross. Our histograms not looking ideal either, we are seeing a decreased green bar for this current 4HRs and thats not a great sign, its showing us that the bullish momentum is not really here and is fading out already, ideally we want to see the blue MA bounce off the orange one giving us that separation we need. The RSI however could be looking up soon enough, we are about to enter the oversold zone which is a good sign and this could give us that boost up that we need, we want to see a break up and above the yellow SMA as our first target but the main goal is getting back up and above that midline, being stuck below keeps us in a confirmed downtrend which of course isn't great. Getting back up and above this midline gives us the chance to reclaim a confirmed uptrend which is exactly what we want but keep in mind we have a ton of work before we make that happen. Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
Bitcoin - next move on 1D!Given our ground zero on 22 June 2021 at 28700 USD, Elliott waves on 1D suggest that 42000 USD was our correction point A. Based on that it is fair to assume that point B would be between 38.2-62.8% Fib that derives from ATH impulse to point A. However, I would consider to go Short at 50% Fib, around 55500 USD area. This where the price can be expected to bounce off the blue trend line and thereafter, drop down to 33300 USD which would be point C. Indicators support feasibility of point B Both RSI and MACD are at the bottom of a falling wedge. Stochatic RSI is in the position of growth. RVI is following an uptrend.
by WallStreetFox
4
BTC Update!Checking out our Bitcoin daily chart i mentioned we were trading inside of a bullish pennant and yesterday we had a false breakout and a close outside of this pennant, since then we have recovered quite nicely and are moving our way back into this bullish pattern! we do have a ton of work to do though, we are facing resistance at the midline of the bollinger bands, 49K, 50K, 51K and 52K, personally i think a great first step is making our way back and above the 51K mark, this gives us a great base of support and the ideal spot for us to start making some upside rallies, think breaking 50K is very bullish aswell but personally would like to see a break of 51 and 52K before we really jump the gun! A must break for us short term is the midline on the bollinger bands, we gotta get up and above here to gain that bull momentum, doing so effectively opens the door for a climb up the top band and an explosive upside move that is much needed right now. The RSI is coming up steadily and we aren't very far off of the midline, however we are facing resistance coming from the SMA (yellow), this is definitely a must break aswell before we can make that midline push. The reason our midline is very important here is due to the fact that being below it keeps us in a confirmed downtrend or sideways price action, getting up and above while holding this midline puts us back into a confirmed uptrend and relieves some of that downside pressure. now the Stoch RSI which goes hand and hand with the RSI and is also a faster mover, we notice we are on quite the fall to the downside but what interests me are the very possible reversal spots where we could see that upside bounce in turn bringing the RSI and price action along for the ride, we have a couple obvious spots where we could expect to see a bounce, uptrend support leading to the bottom of our zone and aswell as regular support slightly above that! Think the uptrend support is more likely due to it being in the oversold zone and its a bit aways away from the stoch rather than our horizontal support being just below the Stoch RSI! NFA Just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
Bitcoin local 4H scenarioBINANCE:BTCPERP According to news what we have got today from FED possible to see positive scenario in global trend and continuation this bull run till summer 2022. In local picture we formed 3rd bottom on 4H MACD usually its a sign for recover. If we are break out 49530 downtrend line and middle line downtrend channel since November we should retest once again 52400. Only after retest break out 52400 we can talk about global continuation for crypto at all. My scenario since post 10December IDEA still in play. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. Don't forget sub and join my channels under this idea!
by Crypto4light
Bitcoin - value of S2F model and TA on 1MMany bitcoin investors believe in the S2F (Stock to Flow) model and expect bitcoin to rise to 100,000+ USD any time soon. The model advocates that an asset has a production/supply limit, for example, like gold and silver and therefore, in the long run, such an asset will only grow in value. This is all true! Hard asset Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million. This makes it a hard currency, so by 2040 one can expect it to be worth 1 million USD per unit. By that time, Bitcoin will mainly be used as a banking transactions' instrument, while for investment purposes a new fork will be created most likely. What's the buzz? If you are a long term investor and time is on your hands, then simply wait another 15-20 years and you'll collect your jackpot. However, if you are a trader on 1D, then you should take into account that bitcoin is a high-risk asset due to its volatility, it runs in cycles that are determined by macroeconomic factors and its drop to 10,000-7,000 USD is more than real. If in doubt, then take a look at US Binance on October 21, where the price of bitcoin fell by 87% from 65,000 USD  to 8,200 USD within a minute. It's important to remember that the cost of bitcoin is primarily the cost of electricity used for mining + the cost of its farm's infrastracture. For large industrial farms, such as Poolin, Bitmain, Crypto Scientific etc. that make up the main share market - the cost per bitcoin is around 3000-5000 USD. Everything else is mere speculation and the belief in hard asset. So ask yourself - under what circumstances can the price of bitcoin fall in the S2F model? A simple example of a cycle Take any famous artist. During his life, he can create only a certain number of paintings. The price of a painting grows progressively as the artist becomes more famous and demand for his work increases. This is a S2F model. A painting's cost bottom remains unchanged - it includes the canvas, paints for drawing and the time it takes to create the masterpiece. All of a sudden a global war arrives. There is misery and hunger! This is a cycle. During this period, an artist's painting loses its value and is sold for a loaf of bread. Recession In this insance, bitcoin's war is a global recession that has already begun. This is confirmed by US bonds' price inversion. As in the last 9 recession cycles over the last 60 years such course was always followed by a market crash. Based on  previous cycles, the recovery of the US economy took an average of 9-16 months. Hence, we are looking into 2023 at least before any further growth! TA on 1M The blue curve is now flat at the top. The upward blue trendline was broken back in November 2018. In June 2021, the price exited the green wedge and bounced off it in October 2021. Two days ago the price broke through the second pink wedge, so far only as a shadow, but it is only the beginning of the month. RSI has a clear price divergence. MACD is at the peak of a rising wedge. RVI has broken through 50. Vertical volumes keep falling while price rises.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by WallStreetFox
15
Bitcoin - analysis on 4HRSI , MACD & RVI reached their resistance lines on 4H, therefore, it is safe to expect the price to go down to its TP1 at 57050 USD level. The price may still go up to 59300 USD before or after this correction. The chart shows main channels: the main one is in pink colour, the flat is in black colour that the price recently broke out off and the new potential channel is in green colour. Thereafter, it's best to watch the price action closely. In principle, the price could go all the way up to 65000 USD. However, it needs to stay in this area and bounce off the blue trend line first as a confirmation. Therefore, it would be wise to see how the candle on 4H and 1D closes at the end of today. I am more in favour of the price going down to TP2 at 55600 USD, followed back by a small correction and then proceeding with a dump to 50500 USD. Let's see how it plays out.
Short
by WallStreetFox
5
Bitcoin and Ethereum - what to expect in 2022?Logarithmic TA on 1W shows that the price has already exited the rising green wedge. The price is currently wandering within a second ascending wedge in pink colour. Once the price breaks out of the wedge, it should be expected to go down in proportion to the height of the wedge (thick line shown in purple colour). In support, RSI & MACD show divergence in relation to the rising price. RVI has already broken through 50 - which is the first sell signal. Vertical volumes also continue to fall while the price rises. I want to emphasize once again that this chart purely demonstrates a position perspective! Locally, on lower time frames, such as 4H, the price will continue to go up and down. Also, I want to point out that ETH has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. Its local movements may differ, but the global trends remain the same. Bitcoin is the defining cryptocurrency! Therefore, the analysis is based on bitcoin! ETH will follow Bitcoin's lead. What about the flight to the moon of 100,000 USD? The main argument for the price to rise is based solely on past cycles. However, this is not much of an analysis as it does not take into account macroeconomics. It's like saying my car has been driving 200 km without a stop and therefore, it should drive another 200 km. No, buddy! You need petrol before you can drive any further. In 2021 bitcoin's price went up as a result of hedging against speeding inflation in US, which from May remained above 5.4% on average. The only way bitcoin's price is going up is if inflation continues to grow towards 10-15% + a few more trillion dollars are invested into bitcoin capitalisation. If inflation starts to slow down or the interest rate is raised, there will be no need to hedge against further inflation and as a result bitcoin price will fall. Yes, it will reach 100,000 USD, but not in the nearest term. How does macroeconomics support the downtrend? 1. The FED has already made adjustments to its monitoring policy. Although the interest rate has not yet been lowered, the volume of purchases of financial assets (bonds) has been reduced, which will serve to slow down inflation. 2. There is a real estate bubble in China. Several large construction companies have already defaulted, and the largest Evergrande is already standing on its last breath. The company's shares collapsed. 3. The energy crisis in Europe is in full swing. 4. A recession is coming. Look at the SP500 index on 1W - the price is already at the peak of the rising wedge. No economic growth in 2022-2023 is to be expected! 5. Tether is not going to save the day by creating and pouring more USDT into the market. With their ongoing law suits for market manipulation, lack of auditing and USDT backed by only 2% cash and about 68% by securities and the remainder backed by thin air - is more likely to take a big hit. 6. Lastly, the bankrupted Mt Got (the largest exchange in the past), having lost a lawsuit, is expected to pay compensation to its depositors in the amount of 180,000 bitcoins. The exact date is not known, but it was stipulated to happen in February-March 2022. Would you allow some guy to get 100,000 USD per bitcoin in compensation only to crash the market? Conclusion I hope I got my message across. The herd is driven by greed while market makers are looking for liquidity. I will provide a more detailed vision of the price movement in my next article. If you are on the same wavelength - put a like, subscribe, comment!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by WallStreetFox
7
Bitcoin - technical analysis on 4HThis is TA based on 4H. I see two path options for the price action. 1. The price will follow the path in purple colour. Provided that it breaks the upper descending resistance line in pink colour and then bounces off it (use 15M for this confirmation), then we have a formation of the local H&S in purple colour and the price is likely to go towards the green rectangle area around 64500-65000 USD. This area represents a resistance based on horizontal volumes. Also, this will be the top point for the right shoulder formation of the global H&S in black colour. This is a good place to go short on 1D - where price may drop to its correction level of 50500-47000 USD. This option seems more logical, a perfect trap for hodlers and bulls, however, it is still a speculation. 2. If the price does not break the pink resistance line and drops below 55300 USD, then the path in light blue colour is most plausible.
by WallStreetFox
Bitcoin - ascending triangle is formed on 15MBased on the formation of the triangle it is plausible to expect the price to go to its resistance level in light red colour. The height of triangle's formation also supports the distance of the price action. Also, the last 3 candles including the one today on 12H show a local trend reversal, which also support current Long. Once the price reaches the green rectangle area around 59200 USD, it will be at the top of its ascending wedge beteeen two green lines. Therefore, a drop to a local support line in pink colour would be expected.
Long
by WallStreetFox
Bitcoin - speculation to go Long on 1D!Yesterday's candle on 1D closed as a pin bar and RVI broke its resistance line and reached 50. Provided that RSI and MACD bounce off their support lines, then it it plausible to expect the price to follow its path as presented on my chart. This is a potential price action for a local correction that may take up to couple of days to complete. The green rectangle represents a good entry point to go SHORT. If price action begins to follow the path then two TP may be available for grabs: 1) TP1 at 62500 USD - first level of correction. 2) TP2 at 65000 USD - this is where we have a 61.8% correction on Fib, ascending resistance line in blue colour, a resistence level based on horizontal volume, as well as a potential formation of H&S (displayed in black colour).
Long
by WallStreetFox
1
Bitcoin - to be or not to be?The last 2 weeks of flat had both bulls and bears sliced and diced. MM having a blast while deposits get liquidated. Where is the market heading to? The price did make its new ATM yesterday. MM got their SLs from shortists. This may seem like a continuation of a bullish trend no doubt. However, the price is at the top of an ascending wedge on 1D. RSI resistance line has not been broken yet. RVI is still below 50. Vertical volumes are still declining. The bullish trend may well continue, but it's best to wait for confirmation from the indicators. I have tried to get some constructive arguments from chats and articles on why the price is expected to go up and reach 100,000 USD other than on the fool's theory where the price goes up until the last fool buys. Some prefer to call it a parabolic price increase. However, nobody seems to offer any logical explanation. I'll make an attempt on their behalf. 1. Bitcoin is a hard asset, the price will go up and reach one million eventually. 2. Tether volume has increased, therefore, bitcoin cap is well justified. 3. Bond price is rising, yields are falling, cash is moved from bonds into bitcoin. 4. Bitcoin is a commodity, a digital gold, gold price is expected to rise. I can make a constructive argument. 1. While bitcoin may well reach the moon, it may crash a few times on its way. Regardless of being a hard asset, it is still a highly risky asset due to its volatility when it comes to futures. It can crash at any time up to 80-100%. US Binance 1 minute crash on 21 October 2021 is a perfect example.   2. Tether Ltd has not been audited still. Tether's assets that support USDT, do not exist, at least partially. In May 2021, Tether published a report showing that only 2.9% of Tether was backed by cash, with over 65% backed by commercial paper. New volume that has been put into  circulation in October has been spent already. I am not going to go into the details of the law suits that claim almost 1.4 trillion USD in fraud damages as well as a relationship with the exchange Bitfinex, which turned to Tether for financial help after the exchange was robbed of 850 million USD in 2018. The bottom line is that Tether is just an ordinary money laundering scam, which is already on the verge of a bubble. 3. FEB is decreasing asset purchasing by 15% at least on monthly basis, which will slow down inflation rate. Lower inflation will decrease Long hedging contract volumes and hence, reduce bitcoin price. At the end of a day, bitcoin is used as a hedging instrument from negative bond yields, which are now at their rock bottom. 4. Although botcoin is a commodity, it has a greater correlation of around 73% with SP500 on 1-10D in 2021. Therefore, it is not clear why would bitcoin should rise if equity market falls. Also, check out gold chart on 1M. There is an obvious divergence on MACD and RVI from around June 2011. What's the plan if you are trading futures? 1. To minimise risk, it would be smart to go Short around the navy blue resistance line from 73500 USD to 77500 USD depending on where the price hits it. The second entry point for Short order where you may double your lot can be at the crossing of a dotted black line. Make sure you also have your Long orders at 52500 and 47500 USD. These entry points do not suggest a trend reversal at this time, but merely a profit making opportunity from short/medium term impulse reversal. 2. If you already have an open postion and your nerves are catching up with you, consider hedging, make a lock, and wait for the price to hit either resistance or support level. Then either close the lock or continue with a lock and enter the market with a double lot in relation to the original size position to either break even or take profit. Remember that bitcoin had no correction still and that it can happen at any time. MM will need that liquidity shortly.
by WallStreetFox
4
BTC Dominance Fake Breakout!!?Checking on how are bitcoin dominance is doing and we find something most wouldn't have expected, a breakout to the upside of this historically bearish pennant, but it may not be what it seems and i think this could be a fakeout scenario, we are currently breaking up above the 42.37% heavy resistance line and will be fast approaching the 42.62% heavy resistance line if we continue. But what im noticing from many indicators is that technically we are looking very bearish as you all are aware, ive been talking about this hidden bearish divergence continuation pattern and bearish pennant pattern a lot over the past week. First lets look at our RSI, we are once again up and around the previous highs resistance line and we could definitely still see a bounce off and fall down like we recently just saw, we aren't in a confirmed uptrend yet it is just way too close to call plus we haven't spent much time above the midline yet. Now check out the MACD we are sort of looming on a bearish cross and have been for some time now, we are seeing a very flat and even sometimes decreasing green histogram showing bull momentum trickling away and our MA's are very very close together slowly moving upwards, but one move could trigger a huge bearish cross which i personally think is likely after this long drawn out green period. Now lets take a look at the bulls and bears power, we clearly see much greater bear power on BTC's dominance, we however are seeing a slight pop up in bulls power likely due to the couple solid green days we just had, we notice our black trend line is approaching the midline and we definitely want to watch this as we could see a shift in power coming up soon, or we could get a strong bounce and continue of where we currently are! Overall i think we are still going to see a big crash in BTC dominance due to many factors but the biggest being the clear hidden bearish divergence which is a continuation of trend pattern, and when this pattern popped up we were in a clear strong downtrend signaling a continuation of that, and keep in mind sideways movement can play out for a little bit and usually always leads too a strong move and once this sideways action is over i personally see us falling to the downside, could be tomorrow could be in a week, the divergence patterns almost never play out right away and can take some time so keep that in the back of your mind knowing that we could be in for a fall sooner than later, and as i said before and i will say again if we do see a big drop in dominance bitcoin will feel that fall and therefore altcoins will for sure take a hit initially, but afterwards we can expect some big gains! Not financial advice just my opinion!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by JacobR905
3
Bitcoin's reversal in play!!As you all know i recently came out with a TA regarding the bullish divergence for BTC and we have since seen bitcoin make some nice moves to the upside starting our path to this trend reversal to an uptrend after a strong short term downtrend. We are currently facing some heavy resistance at 48K aprx as we expected, this level over the past year has been either very strong support or really strong resistance pending which side we are on, now my thoughts are that we are due for a little couple day cooloff after making 5 strong green candles and posting a % gain of 19.5% from the bottom of our first green candle to the top of our current candle, plus due to the fact that we are really struggling to take back this level, we have had 4 touches and attempts at 48K and we have been unsuccessful, now we will have to see about todays daily candle at close but even then i think we could see a little cooldown for even a day than get back to business. A retest of 47.3K and 47K could be a likely scenario and a healthy one for sure if we can hold without breaking down and would strengthen these supports, we have many many under laying support levels so i wouldn't count on going to far if we do see a red day soon. On the other hand we do have many overhead resistances but honestly i don't think these levels will be much of a problem once we really start gaining momentum. Now looking at the pivot bands, many traders or TA guys may look at the bollinger bands and think we are easily going to keep pushing up to grab onto that top band but i don't think this is the case yet, thats why i put on the pivot bands, we notice we are constantly poking into that red zone and what usually happens shortly after having a few touches we see a little bit of a pushback from the bears, vise versa on in the green zone as you can look and backtest, we are on our forth touch in this zone and that is part of the reason i believe we are going to see a red day or two but like i said before there is absolutely no need to panic, this would be natural price movement after getting these 5 green candles in a row. Also to add to our support we have the PB midline which is currently acting as support just like the bollinger bands, so we have quite the solid floor below us. Now lets check out the RSI, as we can see we are currently facing some longer term downtrend resistance coming from back in early august, we look too be getting a bounce off here but the main thing is that we are once again above the midline back in uptrend territory, i've highlighted the midline because as most of you are aware we have to continue to hold this level we don't want to break below here and get stuck because like i said we are in uptrend territory and don't want to loose that already. Now the MACD is looking fantastic we are seeing steady increases in the green bars on the histogram showing a rise in bullish momentum and we are getting some great separation from the blue MA, we are quite a ways away from a bearish cross and that brings me to my final point. If we do happen to see this more than likely day or two of red candles that realistically shouldn't affect this MACD cycle due to the fact that we have big spread in the MA's and the Blue can afford to fall a little bit without even coming close to a bearish cross! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
Very important close for Bitcoin!!!As i talked about a couple times recently this hidden bullish divergence has really played out perfectly with us starting to see some upside momentum with us taking out 2 key resistances with ease! We are currently struggling to get up and above the midline coming from the bollinger bands but we are very close to doing so! I think there is definitely a chance we see a strong push before close tonight hopefully able to regain that midline and turn it back into support, we are still quite a ways away from daily close (8PM EST) and if we manage to climb above we are looking very bullish, and don't get me wrong either way we are looking very bullish! We are facing multiple resistance spots in the 48K area but with some strong momentum we should be able to cut right through, probably not today but in the coming days so lets just focus on the midline of the bollinger bands for now! Now the MACD looks very exciting to me and looks very healthy, we have had 2 periods of bearish momentum (red) and we are finally coming to what looks like a reversal, we are continuously decreasing in red bars on the histogram and thats exactly what we want too see, it means the bearish momentum is trickling away. Now i really really doubt this would happen but have to say it so everyone is aware, there is always a chance no matter how slight that we see a fakeout bullish cross and continue for another bearish cycle, but i really doubt that and if i was a betting man i would say its not going to happen! But what we need to see is of course a bullish cross which looks like its coming soon but aswell as separation in the MA's, we want to see almost right off the bat an explosive bullish cross with the blue MA on top and starting to separate from the orange, and keep in mind the bigger the spread the more momentum and less chance of a near sight bearish cross or reversal. Also like we have talked about many times, don't overlook the histogram it tells you much more than you may think, we want to see everyday increasing green bars, doesn't even have to be a huge increase just a slight one works too, this shows growing momentum in the current cycle and how much strength the bulls have, once we start to see bars flatten out and then start to decrease we can expect a chance at a reversal once the bars return to the midline of the histogram. But also like i just said just because they are shrinking and coming back towards that midline there is always a chance we see a fakeout and then a return to the current trend we we're just in. Overall i think we have lots of upside potential here with lots of space to move up, especially because first of all we haven't even seen a bullish cross yet and we are already moving to the upside and also because the stoch RSI is pretty close to the bottom still with us just now starting to see that bullish crossover, we are just making our way out of the oversold zone! NFA just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Flash Crash Update!As we talked about this morning i thought a cooldown or retest was bound to happen but instead we got a flash crash which we have since significantly recovered from, took off the bollinger bands but if you check out the last TA and load new bars you will see that we actually have recovered all the way back up above the midline which is acting as support. Now we talked about the RSI earlier and i said we could see either of these supports catch and we actually have held up on the lower slightly downtrend support as i was saying, now the test is definitely to hold this level and if we can't a crucial level will be holding the midline on the RSI, this does act as support but more importantly if we stay above this line we are in a confirmed uptrend! Now check out the parallel ascending channel i drew, we are currently sitting right on the bottom part of the channel which acts as support just like the mindline on the bollinger bands, the key here is to see a recovery and push back up into the middle part of the channel, if we breakdown we could expect a strong push down to the 47.4K support level. Now looking at the MACD like i said earlier on that fakeout bullish cross i said we need to see a confirmation with the MA's starting to spread out and we did not see that confirm and soon afterwards we saw that bearish cross and the flash crash. Same thing goes for this bearish cross we aren't seeing any separation in the MA's an the histogram is pretty flat, if this leads into another bearish MACD cycle we will have to see bigger spread in the MA's and bigger growth on the histogram! My thoughts are that billions of dollars we're liquidated today and lots of investors & traders got shaken out because they have weak hands, me on the other hand i bought the dip today and added to one of my bags! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC Hidden Bearish DivergenceFound a hidden bearish divergence on the BTC 4HR timeframe and if you aren't familiar with divergences, regular ones signal a reversal and hidden signal a continuation, so what i am thinking is that this could lead into the much talked about possible pullback i have been mentioning. As you can see coming from our recent high we have been in a little bit of a downtrend and this divergence could be signaling a continuation or lead into a pullback! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BINANCEUS:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC bearish ascending wedge 4HRBitcoins moving within this bearish ascending wedge pattern and is also getting held up by some resistance levels. We are seeing a struggle to get above this 49.2K resistance level, we also notice the ichimoku cloud is getting a flip into bearish territory, we could see a pullback coming up soon here, especially if we get rejected off this level for our daily close and due to the bearish ascending wedge. Also looking at the RSI we are getting held up at this resistance that is slightly above the midline, this could pose an issue for us to keep climbing up aswell. Like i have been saying in my recent BTC analysis's we could be in for atleast a 5% pullback which would land us around the 0.5 FIB, now if this happens there is a chance the pullback could go on longer and could see an upwards of 18-24% to the downside, but we will have to dive into that later on and even if that happens. Looking at the MACD we are actually looking pretty good, we have gotten a tiny bounce when it looked like we were going to see a bearish cross, keep in mind we still could for sure if we see a bearish daily close tonight or even some slight downside in PA, since the MA's are so close together it is pretty hard to determine where we are headed on the MACD, we gotta watch it closely, and if we continue bullish like we currently are or even if we see a bearish cross we have to watch for separation in the MA's if we are going to see a real bull/bear cross. Also the histogram shows you a lot especially the momentum the bulls or bears have in that specific MACD cycle! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
WILL BTC HOLD THIS CRUCIAL LEVEL??!BTC has recently seen a lot of upswings with a couple little red days not really pulling back much, as you guys know i personally think we are due for a decent pullback before we really get going and im thinking we could possibly see this soon. We have lost bull momentum after failing to break above 50K we had multiple touches but couldn't seen to hold onto it and now we are seeing a little bit of downside, im currently looking at this 47.3K support level that we keep testing, if we see a close below here today or in the next couple days i think we could see a fall down to the 45K level. We got 3 pullback targets, the 45K level we just talked about is slightly more than -11% from the recent top at 50K, next we have a likely level due to a little momentum shift into the bears hands and thats the 0.3 FIB (i believe is the most likely target for a decent pullback) Next we have the 38K level which is a solid floor IMO, this also could be likely and i think so because, before we go on the next leg of this bull cycle the big players will be looking to liquidate long positions, shake out weak hands and overall put fear back into retail investors, remember they want you to miss out. Looking at the MACD, like i talked about before we wouldn't really know if this was a legit bearish cross until we saw the MA's starting to separate and the histogram producing bigger red bars each day, and what do you know! We are seeing that exactly starting right now, the MA's are starting to take off from eachother and the histogram is making a bigger red bar today! Checking out the RSI we are seeing some downslope here coming out of the overbought zone but we haven't really moved much in the past day and we haven't broken through this support level either, the most important thing is that the RSI stays above that midline so we can stay in a confirmed uptrend, this midline also acts as support. Now the Stoch RSI which goes hand and hand with the RSI, we are seeing a bearish crossover and we are heading almost straight down, so from the technical side of things it really appears we are going to have a pullback and im hoping its a significant one so i can load up some bags, keep in mind too if we do cross this first support level and close below here than these indicators will follow, like the RSI breaking through the support line and the MACD starting to fully separate and have a decent fall as the bears get a little momentum! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by JacobR905
How Much Will BTC Fall??!Looking at BTC again today after daily close and i was onto something when i mentioned earlier, about the bearish looking transition candle. Thought this sort of scenario was likely looking at how we couldn't break 50K and hardly the R2 resistance, Now we are seeing some support coming from February holding us up, it is really hard to say where i think BTC could land but i imagine it would be more than 5% from the recent top. We could see ourselves at the 45K level or even lower at the 0.3 FIB, im thinking due to the growing numbers of longs and being in extreme greed mode we are in for a decent sized pullback, to liquidate long positions, shake out weak hands, mess with emotions. Looking at the RSI we're seeing downward movement coming out of the overbought area and soon coming up on some support from the beginning of this month, we could see a hold up here for sure but keep in mind all that i just mentioned, also some support from the 50. point midline. Looking at the MACD we are seeing a bearish cross that recently printed and the overall structure of both of the MA's is falling slopping too the downside. keep an eye on this though, we have seen similar action like this like i talked about previously, we will know for sure when we start to see the histogram printing bars, if we see growing red bars we are likely in a pullback scenario especially if the orange MA is on top and we start to see big separation in them, the further they spread out the further away a bull cross is. Now the Wavetrend similar to the RSI we are starting to make a downwards move coming out of the sell zone, there's not much indication here on whether we are going to catch support or not, personally i hope we can see a dip i would love to scoop up some bags, Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC Pullback in Sight!!?BTC bulls are clearly loosing some strength and momentum here after failing to breakthrough the 50k level at the 0.2 FIB, we poked a wick above here slightly but it was not enough! we had a nice close yesterday with us slightly above the R2 resistance but couldn't keep the momentum going, now we are seeing a darth maul candle as i like to call it and aswell known as a transition candle! I think at this point we are due for a little bit of downside like i have been talking about previously, i think likely we could see anywhere from -18% to -24% as shown on the rectangles, keep in mind these are drawn and measured from the top wick above 50K so the pullbacks could be slightly less if we look at it from today forward. The wave trend has been chilling up in the sell area (top zone) for quite some time now and we are just starting to see a curl slightly pointing to the downside! We could see a sort of reset for our indicators hopefully looking at a potential drop to the bottom of the wavetrend before we start heading back up! Also the MACD has been moving very very flat recently and we are not seeing nearly enough momentum, we notice the MA's are in and out of bull and bear crosses moving flat and unpredictable, this is where i think a bear cross and pullback are going to come into play. The histogram doesn't really look good at all we are seeing tiny flat green candles which followed by the same sort of red candles, we are seeing no growth in our bars this MACD cycle and is a clear sign of momentum slowing way down! Im personally really hoping we see this pullback/dip i think its going to provide a very nice buying opportunity and a possible great long entry, will be looking to add to my bags if we see something like this play out! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by JacobR905
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