Bitcoin Today: Japan - stablecoins are not cryptocurrenciesPrice
The week opened a common pattern of low volatility and gradual lowering… Nothing changed a lot in the fundamental background, so without catalysts, the slow low-demand trading continues. October futures has expired on 26.10, this could have been pressuring on the price, so there are opinions that this week (the week after closure) could bring some movement on the market. For now, BTCUSD is trading at the lowest levels of correctional channel 6450 – 6500, a breakthrough below these levels could send the price to the support zone 5750 – 6250. 6800 and 100-days EMA are the main resistance levels now.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6450 - high downward risk.
Latest news
Japanese Regulator on stablecoins and why they are not cryptocurrencies
The Financial Services Agency of Japan (FSA) explained to Bitcoin.com how the current legislation of the country relates to stablecoins. The bottom line is that they are not considered as virtual currencies. Moreover, their issuers and dealers must go through the registration procedure.
“In principle, stable coins pegged by legal currencies do not fall into the category of ‘virtual currencies’ based on the Payment Services Act.”
Cryptocurrencies in Japan are governed by the laws "Fund Settlement Law" and "Payment Services Act", active since April last year. The first of these contains the definition of virtual currencies as a means of payment and exempts them from consumer tax. The second requires that cryptocurrency exchange operators register with the Financial Services Agency (FSA).
On October 9, the Japanese company GMO announced that it would “begin full-scale preparations for the release of virtual stablecoins.” GMO Coin manages one of Japan’s 16 crypto exchanges.
“Generally speaking, companies need to register as the ‘Issuer of Prepaid Payment Instruments’ or the ‘Funds Transfer Service Providers’ based on Payment Services Act, when virtual currency broker dealers trade stable coins.” - The FSA also explained to Bitcoin.com that "sometimes the complicity of stablecoins are such that it is not always advisable to offer them registration before they are released.
In accordance with the position of the FSA, there are two types of prepaid payment instruments: for your own business and for third-party companies. For each of them, there are separate requirements for reporting and registration.
As for providers of money transfer services in general, the Bank of Japan states: “under the Payment Services Act, those registered as fund transfer service providers may perform fund transfer transactions of up to one million yen ” without a banking license. “In other words, fund transfer transactions of over one million yen are still handled exclusively by banks, “. FSA elaborated, noting:
“When a person/an entity engages in exchange transactions of one million yen equivalent or less in the course of trade, registration as a funds transfer service provider is required. For exchange transactions exceeding one million yen, a license for banking business pursuant to the ‘Banking Act’ is required.”
Bitcointoday
Bitcoin Today: compressed springPrice
BTCUSD pair shows record-low volatility for the six days in a row, yesterday movement range was less than 1%. The main reasons for high uncertainty are considered the launch of ICE Bakkt futures (planned on December 12), likely recalling how the CME bitcoin futures launched last year are being blamed for the sharp drop that ensued since then; and a high degree of wariness associated with the Tether controversy. Such pattern of market behavior is often compared to the compressed string, foreshadowing big movements as soon as the price can break out of a narrow range. A downward breakthrough will send the price to test yearly low at 5750, a breakthrough above the wedge will send the price to 7000 level.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6500 - 6800. Breakthrough below the 6450 - high downward risk.
Latest news
Tom Lee opinion in more details
Tom Lee, the head of the Fundstrat and one of the most popular analysts in the cryptocurrency community, this week attracts media attention with optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin, despite the current price slump.
Tom Lee will soon be giving a speech at the BlockShow Asia 2018, which will be held in Singapore from November 27 to December 1. On the eve of this event, Lee expressed his point of view on the current situation in the cryptocurrency sphere and the future of digital assets and blockchain technology.
So, in an interview for the resource Crypto Chick, Lee said that Bitcoin has every chance to overcome the $20,000 barrier in 2019. According to his analysis, in 80% of scenarios similar to the current situation, the price of Bitcoin increased. Lee said that ETH also has a high chance of reaching a price level of $2,000, given its active distribution. According to him, even pessimists with respect to Ether have a chance for a profit if they buy tokens at the current price.
The analyst recalled that now the price of Bitcoin is very close to the average cost of mining, which makes it possible to predict a sharp price jump in the near future.
He also noticed that he expects to see Bitcoin as the most profitable cryptocurrency in 2019:
“Bitcoin is preparing to break out. It has found support around the $6,000 level, which equals the breakeven for mining costs … In the past year, we saw the best performing cryptocurrencies have had the best growth in active users (e.g., EOS, XLM, BTC, and DOGE). I at least expect Bitcoin to be one of the most profitable cryptocurrencies next year.”
Answering the question on Tether, Lee stated that he has no doubts in USDT and trusts the company.
Bitcoin Today: Tether burned 500 mlnPrice
The absence of positive developments in SEC politics, which were revealed in a recent meeting with VanEck lowered the price to 6450, but the pair met demand on these levels, which pushed it above 6500. Overall, the lateral movement continues, in awaiting of strong catalyzers, which will be able to push the price away from the 6450 – 6800 range.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6450 - high downward risk.
Latest news
Tether Limited burned 500 million USDT
Tether Limited burned 500 million Tokenized American dollars USDT. Details for transaction permissions are available.
“Tether has just destroyed 500M USDT from the Tether treasury wallet with the following tx:…” - @Tether_to
The official statement said that approximately 466 million USDT remained in Tether treasury "as a preparatory measure for future USDT issuances". The company insisted that the process of destruction and release of new tokens is clearly prescribed in the whitepaper.
During the past two weeks, 680 million USDT were transferred to the controlled by Tether Limited wallets (treasury wallets), most of these transfers came from an address controlled by Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange that overlaps with Tether in terms of ownership and management.
Bitfinex's cold wallet's balance has fallen by around 100,000 bitcoins since early September, leading some to speculate that the exchange has been spending bitcoin in order to take tether off the market – perhaps to return USDT/USD rate towards the $1.00 mark.
As a result of transactions to Tether treasury, the supply of USDT in circulation has dropped by around a quarter, to approximately $2 billion. Now many of these tokens, in addition to having been taken out of circulation, have been "burned" or destroyed by the company.
Kasper Rasmussen, Bitfinex's director of communications, said the action "does not have anything to do with defending dollar parity," since both the exchange and Tether guarantee 1-for-1 redemptions. He denied that Tether is intentionally scaling back supply.
Tether tokens are redeemed "when the amount circulating exceeds the amount required for e.g. Bitfinex or Tether to operate," Rasmussen said, and the reason most of the destroyed tokens came from Bitfinex's wallet is that "Bitfinex is one of the main customers of Tether."
The 2016 white paper specifies that USDT holders can redeem their tokens for U.S. dollars directly with the company. Tether maintains that every USDT token is backed by a U.S. dollar deposit.
The anonymous anti-Tether campaigner "Bitfinex'ed," however, disputed Tether's characterization of transfers to the Treasury as a "redemption," writing: "Not one person can come forward and say that they converted Tethers to dollars and got wired money from Tether."
Rasmussen, the Bitfinex spokesman, claimed otherwise, telling CoinDesk: "Yes, direct customers of Tether are able to redeem USDT through Tether Ltd."
Still, a lot of people allege that it is not possible to redeem USDT tokens for dollars with Tether, though, the company has never agreed to for the audit.
Bitcoin Today: How Tether is doing?Price
No major changes in the fundamental background during the latest day, as well as in the price behavior. BTCUSD stays in the narrow lateral channel inside 6450 – 6680 zone. Too-long lull will weaken supporting levels and lower the price eventually. Current situation needs to see any fundamental feedback to change the faze, otherwise, the price will continue gradual lowering to more significant support zone 5750 - 6250.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6500 - high downward risk.
Latest news
How Tether is doing
Recall that a week ago there was an anomalous growth of Bitcoin on Bitfinex, against the background of which the USDT price dropped to $ 0.92.
Researchers at CoinMetrics.io note that over the past two weeks, the capitalization of the most popular stablecoin Tether USD (USDT) has decreased by $ 730 million.
“Stablecoin update: Tether has suffered about 730m in outflows from its peak; competitors have added about 120m to their combined supply. So a considerable amount of USDT outflows were not into other stablecoins” - @coinmetrics
Over the same time, the capitalization of stablecoins competing with USDT increased by a total of 120 million. This suggests that a significant part of the capital was probably directed not to “new stable coins”, but to buying other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
Founder of Onchain Capital and presenter of Cryptotrader on CNBC Ran Neu Ner notes that currently the largest USDT holders are Tether Treasury (about 30%), the largest in terms of trading volume, Binance, and an unknown address.
“Biggest holders of Tether today are treasury,Binance and Huobi. Bitfinex has a very small amount. This means that;
1.Bitfinex has lost a lot of customers.
2.Bitfinex customers have sold Tether for crypto.
3.@cz_binance is certainly in top of the situation.
Source: @TheElementGrp” - @cryptomanran
Also, a significant portion of USDT coins is concentrated on the Huobi, Poloniex and Bittrex exchanges. Bitfinex, exchange associated with Tether, goes fourth in this list.
Bitcoin Today: 25k only if it breaks above 200-day EMAPrice
The correctional movement after the provoked by Tether hike continues, the price gradually descending with low momentum and weak volumes. On Saturday morning the price bottomed at 6500 level and found enough support for upward momentum above 6600 level. Still, the pattern stays lateral, with 6500 – 6800 boundaries. For now, the situation looks like traders waiting for a breakthrough in any direction, to take the right positions.
Catalyst for the breakthrough out of correction pattern could be news from SEC. Later this week the U.S. SEC is expected to complete its review on several BTC ETF applications. While very few experts believe that the Commission will authorize a rule change to allow an ETF, any news from the regulator could move the price.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6500 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6500 - high downward risk.
Latest opinions
Vinny Lingham
Vinny Lingham, the co-founder, and CEO of Civic, a blockchain company that specializes in identity security, believes that there will be another bubble even more significant than the previous one for the cryptocurrency market. He shared his views speaking at the Chain Reaction event hosted by Blockchain Entrepreneurs Club South Africa (BECSA) in Johannesburg earlier this week, Mybroadband Magazine reports.
"Do I think we’ll have another bubble? Probably, because people just don’t learn. Once it broke through $20k, it would run to over $100k and then we have the start of a new bubble-bust cycle," Lingham said, explaining that he looks at the cryptocurrency market from a long-term perspective, while the bubble will be created by investor greed.
Lingham is a South African internet entrepreneur and a founder of Civic. His company raised over $33 million through an ICO in 2015. He spoke about the future of blockchain, the cryptocurrency market development and the issues of mass adoption.
"Even though we are about a decade into blockchain technologies, we are still in the infancy. Primarily the number one use case for cryptocurrency outside of money transfers is trading. It’s mostly a speculation game,"
Tom Lee
Tom Lee in his interview to the Youtube channel Crypto Tips. Tom Lee answers on the question about his forecasts of 25k level for BTC to Haidi aka @blockchainchick.
“People are too bearish… What happens is people get bearish because it makes sense. You know the market conditions have been terrible and we are under our 200-day moving average.”
According to Lee’s research, by the end of 2018, the break-even cost of BTC mining will rise to $8,000-$9,000. While this could be grounds for Bitcoin to rise slightly, the New York-based analyst added that Bitcoin often trades at over two times its break-even, hence the bullish $20,000+ price prediction.
Tom Lee also talks about the importance of 200-days EMA pattern
“We just published a report this week that pointed out to our clients that when Bitcoin is under its 200-day, it only goes up 50% of the time in the next six months. But when it’s above its 200-day, it is up 80% of the time , so the trend implied by the 200-day is obviously very important.”
And the psychology of Bottom pattern
“Until people are convinced that there’s a bottom, like there are a chicken and an egg, you can’t motivate people until the event happens.”
Bitcoin Today: is this a sunset for Tether?Price
Lowering demand eventually weakened support and brought the price lower, to the 6600 level, which showed a hike in volumes and, for now, holds the price. The fundamental background stays rather empty, which is the main reason for lowering demand. In view of the desaturated news background, SEC relations with BTC ETF applications stay the main lever which symbolizes relationships of cryptocurrency markets with institutional investors… Tether problems took second place, and it is still unclear how big a problem it is. It is worth saying that rapid development and adoption of new stablecoins sounds like a threat to the past monopoly of Tether, it already looks too risky to hold value in Tether.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800.
Latest news
Binance adds new stablecoins, still planning to support Tether
The most important factor for stablecoins stability is as wide as possible support. So, if cryptocurrency exchange adds new stablecoin, a potential replacement for Tether, it sounds like a concern.
CoinDesk reports:
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is considering the possibility of adding new stablecoins in addition to the three already presented on the platform.
"We hope to be able to list a few more stablecoins on our platform," chief financial officer Wei Zhou told CoinDesk Thursday.
At the same time, he noted, the new initiative does not mean the loss by the company of confidence in the most popular stablecoin Tether (USDT). Which has not yet restored parity with the US dollar and is currently trading at around $ 0.98.
"As a whole, we believe things will even out. We will continue to support USDT," Wei said.
Binance began to show interest in the stablecoins even before the latest dramatic events around Tether. So, at the end of September, the largest exchange in terms of trading volume added support for Paxos Standard (PAX). Also, in May TrueUSD (TUSD) was added to the Binance listing.
Wei also said that the Binance research team is currently analyzing almost all of the stablecoins on the market. At the same time, he said, the high probability that the next one in the listing of the exchange will be Winklevoss brothers Gemini Dollar (GUSD).
Note that the above-mentioned “new stablebcoins” also lost parity with the US dollar. However, unlike the USDT, they all trade slightly above $ 1.
Returning to Tether, Wei emphasized the significance of this coin:
"We do believe this stablecoin, as an entity, is critical for our ecosystem right now because it offers an alternative for investors to park their assets in something they can relate to."
This week, Binance had to suspend the possibility of withdrawing USDT, the volatility of which increased abnormally against the background of the massive sales of this coin. According to Wei, the panic was caused by the “spreading false rumors” about Tether.
Bitcoin Today: waiting for any newsPrice
For the third day, the price stays in an indecisive pattern, clamped in a narrow range 6680 – 6800. The market obviously waits for some fundamental factors, that could push the price in either direction. In such a situation, the absence of fundamental support and lowering demand could eventually lower the price. Boundaries stay the same, 6600 as a support level and 6800 as resistance. The longer the price stays with the low momentum and below 6800 outlook is bearish.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6600 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6600 - high downward risk.
Latest news
Latest news on Bitfinex and Tether
The Block shed a light on Bitfinex and Tether banking situation in its recent post:
“Recently, Bitfinex briefly banked with HSBC through a private account via Global Trading Solutions and subsequently suspended all fiat deposits for nearly a week. Now, according to a source familiar with the matter, Bitfinex appears to be banking with Bank of Communications through a private account of PROSPERITY REVENUE MERCHANDISING LIMITED. The Hong Kong-based bank, which is partially owned by HSBC Holdings, has been using Citibank as the intermediary bank for U.S. dollar wire transfers to Bitfinex.”
So, Bitfinex reportedly has entered into a partnership agreement with Hong Kong Bank of Communications, partly owned by HSBC Holdings, a financial conglomerate. Payments will be made through a private account of Prosperity Revenue Merchandising Limited.
It should be noted that Citibank acts as a correspondent bank when transferring funds from Bank of Communications to the USA. Wells Fargo also performed the same role for Bitfinex partners in Taiwan before it stopped processing iFinex Inc. services. and Tether Ltd. in April 2017.
Nevertheless, it is not known for certain whether HSBC or Citibank is aware of cooperation with Bitfinex.
At the same time, Tether Ltd., The Block refers to private sources, has entered into an agreement with the Bahamian Deltec Bank. Sources also added that operators of some OTC platforms also expressed a desire to open accounts with this bank for direct cooperation with the issuer USDT.
It is noteworthy that for some time Bitfinex banking service was allegedly carried out by the American division of HSBC Bank N.A., and the payments went through accounts of Global Trading Solutions, LLC.
Recall, on October 16, the exchange introduced a new mechanism for making fiat deposits.
Earlier, an abnormal fall in the USDT price to $ 0.92 was recorded. Some analysts have suggested that major players have attempted to withdraw from the asset. However, now the course has returned to the mark of $ 0.97.
Tether Ltd. has reacted on the fall in price and panic in a usual manner, publicly confirming that all tokens are fully secured with one-to-one fiat US dollars.
Bitcoin Today: no growth in 2018Price
Lowering volatility shrinks the price inside a narrow channel 6700 – 6800. For current lowering momentum, the 6800 (coinciding with 100-days EMA now) looks too stiff, so lowering price range could be an indicator of soon step down. 6600 – 6700 zone holds as a support for now, which soon could be tested; breakthrough below this level will change lateral outlook towards bearish and aim the price downwards to the 5750 - 6250 support zone. Upward impulse above 6800 – 7000 resistive zone could bring more positiveness to the market but seems unlikely regarding the fundamental field.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6600 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6600 - high downward risk.
Opinions
Pantera Capital CIO expects 10x growth
The co-chief investment officer of Pantera Capital, Joey Krug made this prediction during an interview with Bloomberg, forecasting that the next upswing could bring the cryptocurrency market cap to more than $2 trillion.
“If you look at that next bull run, I think the crypto space overall could hit 10x from here.”
Krug said that he believes the market is currently waiting on concrete adoption to catalyze a bull run. For this to happen cryptocurrency structure will need to achieve increased scalability, as the current state of cryptocurrency blockchain development similar to the internet dial-up era.
“If you look at the internet, it’s easy to say, ‘Well, you just create an app, get some users, and then you solve the scalability problems.’ But these are all markets, and so if you don’t have scalability, you don’t have market makers, and so you don’t have liquidity.”
In the meantime, Joey Krug notices that he believes the cryptocurrency market has hit a bottom, but it will remain range-bound until the next catalyst arrives.
Mike Novogratz Explains postpones bitcoin bull run on 2019
In a recent Bloomberg Television interview, famed bitcoin supporter Mike Novogratz explains why he thinks Q1 & Q2 of 2019 will be extremely positive for bitcoin. Novogratz, founder, and CEO of Galaxy Digital has previously declared the bottom of the cryptocurrency market and continues to be bullish on bitcoin.
Mike’s appearance on Bloomberg was regarded to Fidelity Investments, one of the world’s largest financial service providers will be launching a cryptocurrency custody service. Fidelity, manager of more than $7.2 trillion in customer funds, becomes the largest financial provider to officially announce a cryptocurrency custody solution - a development Novogratz sees as very bullish.
“We’ve been saying for a long time that one of the things that will get institutional investors involved in crypto is custody solutions...And they’re coming out with a world class custody solution aimed at institutions...that’s just another check.”
Nonetheless, Novogratz emphasizes that price might take a while to catch up to the news. Fidelity’s custody product won’t be running until Q1 2019, and even then, investors will want to see Fidelity build a track record first so investment mass will grow gradually.
Appealing to the CBOE & CME Bitcoin Futures (launched in December 2017) gaining popularity among investors slower than expected Mike Novogratz emphasizes:
“Everything takes longer than you hope it does. The whole crypto ecosystem is still like a fourth grader…this stuff takes longer.”
He admits that his firm is long on bitcoin, but they’re watching the $6,800 and $10,000 levels before being sure that more upward movement is coming: “You gotta take out $6800 first...I don’t see us breaking $10k by the end of the year.”
Bitcoin Today: How much it will harm, if Tether is dead?Price
Monday spike did not manage to fix the price positions above 6800, still, the price shows positive behavior above 6600 level. For now, the crowd is still digesting the new Tether situation, whether it is was a fud panic around USDT to twitch bitcoin price or Tether really have problems this time. From the technical view, comeback below 100-days EMA and 7000 cancels possible bullish movements, sending the price in a lateral channel, at least until the situation with Tether will be clarified. 6600 is an important support level, breakthrough below this level will indicate that bears gaining power and could send the price to the 6000 support. From above 6800 and 7000 level will serve as a resistance in case of upward impulses.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6600 - 6800. In case of crossing the 6600 - high downward risk.
Latest news
Comments on the Tether fall
Coindesk published a Tether team statement regarding the incident, attributed to chief compliance officer Leonardo Real:
"Tether is the leading provider of tokenized fiat currencies and is listed on many exchanges worldwide. We would like to reiterate that although markets have shown temporary fluctuations in price, all USDT in circulation are sufficiently backed by U.S. dollars (USD) and that assets have always exceeded liabilities. In June 2018, a report from Freeh Sporkin & Sullivan, LLP (FSS), based on a random date balance inspection and a full review of relevant documentation of bank accounts, confirmed that all Tethers in circulation as of that date were indeed fully backed by USD reserves."
The talk is about the fall of USDTUSD price, which has fallen to an 18-month low Monday, despite a general rise in the wider cryptomarket. Furthermore, this drop is advocated as the main reason for the bitcoin spike above 7000 on Monday.
Interestingly, other recently introduced stablecoins like Gemini Dollar (GUSD) and TrueUSD (TUSD – Bittrex stablecoin) are up 1.85 percent and 4.96 percent, respectively.
Such events lead to the conclusion that regardless of Tether real situation, traders change the main crypto-dollar for other assets. Which is an extremly dangerous sign for Tetjer future.
Bitcoin Today: Tether falls and kick BTC upwards Price
After lateral weekends in a narrow range bitcoin shooked markets on Monday, spiking close to the 7800 mark on Bitfinex during an hour. Now the price already has returned a halfway down and, at the moment, trading around the 100-days EMA and 6800 level. Opinions agree that the main reasons for the spike are troubles with Tether and people trying to drop-off the USDT, changing it on main cryptocurrencies BTC, ETH and alternative stablecoins. So, the main hit was from the exchanges, which operates with USDT; Bitfinex was hit the worst as Bitfinex is reportedly operating Tether LLC. All other work was made by trading bots. The situation looks fragile because Tether stays the main entry point for the cryptomarkets, despite the recent fashion to release stable coins by other exchanges, USDT stays the main cryptocurrency dollar for now. And problems with USDT will definitely affect bitcoin price in a bad way. Hence, we recommend staying away from bullish decisions during the nearest days. From the technical point of view, a hold on above 6800 would give a bullish polish to the new pattern, nonetheless, we do not see possibilities for a big bullish run right now.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6600 - 7000. High downward risk.
Latest news
Citations of the main opinions regarding the recent spike
“The price of Bitcoin has surged from $6,300 to $7,500 on Bitfinex, a major cryptocurrency exchange that reportedly operates Tether LLC, a firm that oversees the development of stablecoin Tether (USDT).
Bitcoin is being traded with a significant premium on exchanges that have integrated USDT such as OKEx and Huobi, because traders have initiated the biggest sell-off of USDT to date.” – CCN
“The only reason Bitcoin is rising on USD exchanges is because of bots programmed to follow Bitfinex. Eventually these bots will be shut off.” - @Bitfinexed
“Market analysts believe the massive Tether (USDT) selloff has sparked a "run on the bank" - and this might be the reason why the BTC price has surged so rapidly as the market’s nervousness about Tether has sparked a panic, with traders buying BTC, altcoins and other stablecoin alternatives for USDT.” – Cryptoglobe
“Tether is closely tied to BitFinex, a global crypto exchange which lately has dropped Noble Bank as its banking partner. The amount of US dollars required to back the Tether’s USDT token supply were reportedly deposited in the same bank, which caused the stablecoin temporary hassles. Later, reports started to surface that Tether had no money to back its total supply, with many of them calling the stablecoin project a scam. They also found a strong connection between the chiefs of BitFinex, Tether and Noble Bank, especially at the time when the Noble bank became a strong point of concern for the Puerto Rican regulators. Reportedly, the authorities issued a warning to the firm, the details of which couldn’t make to the press.” - CCN
Bitcoin Today: SEC and ICOsPrice
Today the market is trading sideways after the recent fall. Level 6250.0, the upper bound of the main resistive zone, has managed to stop the falling. Nonetheless, the price has not yet won back even a half of the fall, so that the market bias stays bearish with high probability if further fall. Main levels for today are 6250.0 from below, a breakthrough of which will lead the price to the year low at 5750, and 6450 from above as the half of the fall.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6000 - 6450. High downward risk.
Latest news
SEC hunting for ICOs, is it a good thing?
Recently Yahoo Finance published an article about the last doings of SEC in a field of ICOs.
Over the past few months, the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has significantly strengthened its efforts to account companies, which at one time attracted funding through initial offers of coins (ICO).
As you know, in early 2018, the SEC launched a large-scale investigation into the ICO sphere, sending a number of companies an invitation to “talk”. A few months later, the department not only returned to studying the issue but also sent similar notifications to many other startups. The main claims of the SEC come down to the fact that these companies were not able to properly ensure that only accredited investors participate in the ICO.
Later it turned out that several dozens of companies, not giving these circumstances to wide publicity, agreed to return the funds to investors and pay a fine. At the same time, other startups claim to be in limbo, not understanding how they can still meet the requirements of the SEC and how others solve these issues.
The names of the interlocutors, some of whom are employees of companies under investigation, and some of them are lawyers, are not disclosed, since all of them are limited by the SEC in disclosing information and for this reason spoke on the rights of anonymity.
ICO, as an alternative to venture capital investments, has reached the peak of its popularity in 2017, but most companies have not yet launched work products.
The exact figures on how much the ICO has been conducted in recent years, however, differ. Thus, ICO Alert tracked more than 5,000 such campaigns, but only 3,400 are displayed as “legitimate”. On the other hand, CoinDesk has counted only 800 ICO projects over the past two years.
In September, Elementus published a study, according to which for all the time, projects through ICO raised $ 28.4 billion. However, recently the lack of regulatory clarity has noticeably cooled the ardor of market participants.
The main problem for any company is now the question of whether tokens are issued as securities. If the answer is yes, then the following question arises: has such a company registered its offer with the SEC or does its ICO fall under the exception?
As for the Commission itself, its position boils down to the fact that almost all ICOs qualify as offers of securities, and it does not matter how startups position them - be it the concept of SAFT, or any other mechanism.
Recall that by the end of this year, the European Organization of Securities and Markets (ESMA) intends to determine its position on the regulation of the ICO sphere.
Bitcoin Today: on the verge of collapse?Price
Almost 6% fall breached the Bullish Trend Line and brought BTCUSD price to the main support zone 5750 – 6250, the last barrier before renewing yearly lows. The clear reasons for the fall are currently unknown, many blame such dropdowns on the trading robots. It is also known, that there were two negative publications, that could have had an impact on the price: International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a negative report, basically stating that blockchain boom facilitating the “rapid growth” of cryptocurrency assets could create “new vulnerabilities in the international financial system”; Juniper Research published “The Future of Cryptocurrency” report, which states that the market is at the brink of disaster. For now, the downward risk is high. The bulls will probably buy the 6000 level, but it is unclear if they will manage to move the price high enough to stop the falling. We recommend staying out of the market today and watch if the price will manage to go flat above 6250.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6000 - 6450. High downward risk.
Latest news
IMF: cryptocurrency growth makes the world economy vulnerable
Cryptocurrencies can create “new vulnerabilities” in the global financial system. This is stated in the October report of the World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Violations of cybersecurity and cyber-attacks on critical points of the financial infrastructure represent an additional source of risk because they can disrupt the functioning of the cross-border payment system and the flow of goods and services.
The report also notes that digital assets will become a threat to the economy if their distribution continues at a rapid pace.
Also, the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde said that the rapid evolution of the financial system requires more vigilance on the part of regulators.
Note that in May, IMF expressed a completely different point of view. At the time the International Monetary Fund was stating that cryptocurrencies do not constitute a threat to global economic stability.
Juniper Research: cryptocurrency industry on the verge of collapse
Juniper Research has published a study “The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023” which states that the digital asset market is on the verge of a disaster. Some abstracts from the research were quoted by Bloomberg.
The authors of the material indicate that the average daily transaction volume of the first cryptocurrency decreased from 360 thousand at the end of 2017 to 230 thousand in September 2018. At the same time, the total dollar amount of the value transferred in the Bitcoin blockchain for this period decreased from $ 3.7 billion to $ 670 million.
At the same time, analysts note that in the first quarter, funds worth more than $ 1.4 trillion were transferred through cryptocurrency transactions. At the same time last year, this value was less than $ 1.7 trillion. However, in the second quarter of this year, this figure fell by 75%, and the market capitalization reached marks below $ 355 billion. At present, the total value of digital assets represented in the market is $ 216 billion.
“Based on the activity observed during the first half of the third quarter, Juniper predicts a 47% reduction in the volume of transactions for the end of this period,” the researchers note.
In addition, Juniper Research analysts stated that cryptocurrencies did not prove to be an alternative to the global financial system in the context of the growing trade confrontation between China and the US, as well as Brexit-related problems.
Bitcoin Today: latest on SEC vs ETFsPrice
Morning sell-off brought BTCUSD price back to the Bullish Trend Line. The last couple weeks movement, with its narrowing peaks, assembles in the wedge formation, which speaks of decreasing volatility and uncertainty. For now, due to the lack of fundamental support, the main focus stays on holding of the current levels. 6550 and Bullish Trend Line should stay strong to remain the lateral movement scenario, lowering below 6450 will increase the likelihood of the sell-off to 6000.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6700.
Latest news
Latest news on SEC and ETFs
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seemingly preparing to reconsider its decisions on Bitcoin ETFs. The Commission continues to offer to public and interested parties to publish comments on the pros and cons of ETFs, which may ultimately affect the final verdict.
SEC has called October 26, 2018, as the deadline for receiving comments from the public on regulatory rules that may be changed at the request of several companies.
Earlier SEC rejected nine applications for Bitcoin-ETF from three investment companies: GraniteShares, ProShare, and Direxion. Now the agency is ready to review them again and is waiting for "statements in support of or against the actions of the unit in accordance with the delegated authority."
There are experts, who are optimistic about the reasons for which the SEC could now endorse Bitcoin-ETF. For example, representatives from Trefis, the development team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Wall Street analysts, expresses an opinion that "despite the fact that at the beginning of this year, SEC rejected several offers on Bitcoin-ETF, it somewhat softened its position towards the industry, and also invited investors to discuss the pros and cons of these tools”.
There are other factors that encourage SEC to approve the applications, for example, the increasing demand for this financial instrument, as well as the decrease in bitcoin volatility. Currently, the volatility index of the main cryptocurrency for the last 30 days was 1.71%, and for 60 days - 2.43%.
It should be noted that one of the main reasons for which the agency had previously rejected applications were high volatility and the likelihood of market price manipulation. As a financial expert at FXEmpire, Bob Mason, noted, "low volatility indicates that price manipulation may have decreased."
The joint application of SolidX and VanEck, for which the commission has already received more than 1,400 comments, is also considered to have high chances of acceptance.
Bitcoin Today: Europe will regulate ICOsPrice
Monday passed in an upward manner and brought the tag to the 6730 height, at the end of the day the price settled at the 6660 level. The overall point of view did not change as correction zone extends to the 6800 level and this movement was in the correction bounds. After 6800 level BTCUSD will meet the resistive zone 6800-7000, which also contains 100-days EMA, only after trespassing of this zone any bullish developments should be considered. From below, 6600 level now turned supportive.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6600 - 6800.
Latest news
In Europe, ICOs will be regulated till the end of the year
The 2018 Year has become a year of the ICO crashes. As the 2017 year brought huge investments almost to any ICO on the wave of bitcoin popularity, 2018 year got hit by the inability of the major part of ICO project to derive promised results. The fall of confidence in the such projects also had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin and the main ICO currency Ethereum. For now, it is obvious, that further existence of ICO market will need a much stronger regulation.
European Security commission promise to come out with the regulatory rules for the ICO projects till the end of the year.
European regulators are trying to figure out whether ICO should be regulated as a sale of securities and how to take into account the specifics of each particular case, reports Reuters.
The Chairman of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), Steven Maijoor, in his speech in front of the Economic Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, said that some ICOs are very similar to financial instruments that are placed within a certain regulatory framework. However, the regulator has yet to determine how to regulate those ICOs to which such rules of law are not applicable.
“The subsequent question is what do we do with those ICOs that are outside the regulatory world. We will assess that as a board. We expect to report by the end of the year.” - Maijoor told the European Parliament’s economic affairs committee.
Recently it was reported that next year ESMA intends to allocate significant funds for monitoring cryptocurrency and Fintech innovations. In addition, the organization is ready to hire additional staff to accomplish the same goals.
Bitcoin Today: USA against PetroPrice
BTCUSD saves low volatility for several days, the Friday and weekends have passed in the narrow diapason 6550 – 6660, excluding two minor spikes. It worth noticing, that despite low volatility bitcoin have been making higher lows along Bullish Trend Line during September. If Bitcoin will manage to keep the higher-lows tendency, the Bullish Trend Line will eventually lead the price to the 100-days EMA and 7000 level (the most important level for now). Otherwise, if the price will fail to hold above 6500, then we will see testing of the Trend Line and 6450 level after. The most probable diapason for today is 6450 – 6660.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6660.
Latest news
US sanctions against Venezuelan Petro
A group of US senators is promoting new sanctions against Venezuela. The sanctions propose to extend a March order to prohibit US residents to provide software to Venezuela government, which will help to launch a Petro.
Senators Bob Menendez, Marco Rubio, Bill Nelson, John Cornyn, Dick Durbin, David Perdue, Ben Cardin, Ted Cruz, Tim Kaine, Michael Bennet, and Patrick Leahy believe that launch of Petro crypto-currency by Venezuela government will help the country to avoid already existing US economic sanctions against the country.
The bill, first introduced to Congress on the 24th of September and titled the ‘‘Venezuela Humanitarian Relief, Reconstruction, and Rule of Law Act of 2018,” extends upon an executive order signed by President Donald Trump during March that placed sanctions against Venezuela for seeking to bypass existing economic sanctions via the Petro. Further, it prohibits U.S. residents from “providing software” to the Venezuelan government in its move to launch the Petro.
The bill states: “All transactions related to, provision of financing for, and other dealings in, by a United States person or within the United States, any digital currency, digital coin, or digital token, that was issued by, for, or on behalf of the Government of Venezuela on or after January 9, 2018, are prohibited as of the effective date of this order.”
The official public sale of the Petro is scheduled to commence on the 5th of November.
Bitcoin Today: deep correction, no growth till 2019Price
Market stays in indecisive pattern while forecasters take turns abandoning their predictions of new heights till the end of the year. From a narrower point of view, yesterday the price pushed off from the Bullish Trend Line, the lower bound of the Rising Wedge formation. It is assumed that the Rising Wedge formation underlies a bearish bias so those who identified this pattern will wait for the downwards rally. For now, price holds on the 6600 level, at the middle of indecisive channel 6000 – 7000. Recall, that to consider any bullish developments we need to see the price above 7000. From the downside we have Bullish Trend Line, a breakthrough of which will send a price downwards, as Rising Wedge formation suggests.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800.
Latest news
Mike Novogratz refuses his prediction on Bitcoin reaching $40000
Investor Mike Novogratz, who previously predicted Bitcoin at $40,000 before the end of the year, radically revised his forecast during his speech at the Economist Finance Disrupted event.
"I don't think it breaks $9,000 this year,"
Novogratz, whose cryptocurrency-focused merchant bank Galaxy Digital went public on a Canadian stock exchange in August, called a bottom for bitcoin prices in September.
The former trader Goldman Sachs also noted that significant pressure on the price is exerted by industry participants who seek short-term profits, as well as cryptocurrency companies that need to cover running costs.
Note that in September, Mike Novogratz said that Bitcoin is ready for explosive growth, the driver of which will be the growing demand from institutional investors. It is worth saying, that regarding the current situation with SEC denying and postponing bitcoin ETF applications, it is no wonder that many have doubts about the end of the year dynamics.
Bitcoin fall and further deflation of the entire market for 30%+Bitcoin is clearly attempting to break through and make new highs and continuosly failing to do it .
Starting from January 13.th, we have obvious downward tendendcy (after making all time high), continualy had lower and lower rebounces like 20.000/11.700/10.000/8500/7400/6800.
With all that said, Bitcoin as failing to breach 6750 in 4 attempts (while making "interconsolidation" on 6.4 inbetween, so obviously showing signs of serious weekness once again, therefore, as failing to make higher high (or at least lowe high in current situation), Bitcoin will go toward 6550 level (while continuosly rebouncing over it) and "alegedly" trying to push through 6620 and as failing to do so, it will make previous low 6400, trying to breach 6550 and as failing again sinking towards 6380 and most likely deeper while altcoins keeps on deflating. My recomendation to everyone, like everyone is leaving into USD ONLY while downtrend doesnt reach at least 6280 then 6123, so then after situation unfolds, we can make further conclusion because of accuracy.
Do not rush with buys. Stay in USD, try to make swing opportunities 6464-6550, then 6380-6456, 6280 6365 and so on. But most simple way is just staying in US dollar while Bitcoin retest and makes NEW LOWS.
Be very careful if trading under these levels. I will provide aditional information regarding the dropping levels, but this time, Bitcoin is most likely (almost certanly) goes to previous lows (6100) and falls futher in the manner 5400-5750. Therefore, your altcoins will be worth 40% less at least (becase Bitcoin deflates over dollar) for 20% and your altcoins additionaly deflates over Bitcoin for addititional value (therefore) USD output could be very low.
Dont let yourself sink with your assest.
Cashout on time (if you didn't do it so far) do it, and leave it falling.
Don't listen to market makers and influencers.
Those who brags most, does least.
Good luck to everyone and don't rebuy prematurely.
Bitcoin Today: more futuresPrice
The current market pattern looks like a flag correction of the fall at the beginning of September. Fluctuations in a lateral manner not reaching the upper resistance at 7000 and lower boundary at 5750 shows that the market is in indecisive mode, waiting for new drivers. One of the main latest drivers, the CFTC ETF situation, was postponed until the next year, so, in the current state, we do not observe any factors that could add positivity to the picture and prolonged correctional movement at current levels looks like the best outcome at this point. Large-scale bullish movements on BTCUSD are possible only if the price will manage to break above 7000 level. From the below, the price is supported with 2018 low at 5750.
Today forecast
Today most probable trading diapason: 6450 - 6800.
Latest news
TD Ameritrade and ErisX will launch deliverable futures for BTC, BCH, LTC, and ETH
One of the biggest American brokers recently Ameritrade reported in its press release about cooperation with ErisX, regulated derivatives stock exchange, which will allow the exchange to launch Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin deliverable futures.
Representatives of TD Ameritrade note that the company's customers already have access CBOE bitcoin futures. Thanks to a strategic partnership with ErisX, which is also a clearing organization, broker customers will be able to trade futures for Ethereum, Litecoin, and other popular digital currencies.
ErisX regulated exchange plans to launch spot trading in digital assets in the first half of 2019. The ability to trade crypto futures Ameritrade of the underlying asset will be available at the end of next year.
Also, recall that in the spring TD Ameritrade placed its own logo in the form of an ASCII-flag in the Bitcoin blockchain.
Bitcoin Today: Bots manipulating the pricePrice
Bitcoin did not manage to hold the 6600 height, broke the trend line and returned to the 6450 level. The fall denies the possibility of soon recovery to the 7000 level and establishes a current support level at 6450. Return above 6500 will signal that local fall tendency is over and open 6600 and 6800 resistance level, a movement below will open 6350 and 6250 levels for testing. For now, the market picture tends more to bearish state.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6300 - 6600 zone.
Latest news
Bitcoin Price Manipulation Report
Recently Wall Street Journal released an in-depth article on how the price of Bitcoin is manipulated by automated trading systems (Bots Are Manipulating Price of Bitcoin in ‘Wild West of Crypto’). The article caused a loud resonance and allegedly partly responsible for the recent fall.
The main point of article mirrored in the citation:
“In crypto, the critical difference is the lack of oversight. While established markets like the New York Stock Exchange monitor for illegal trading and punish rule-breakers, crypto exchanges vary widely in their surveillance efforts. Most crypto exchanges are regulated lightly, if at all. The result is that crypto bots can be used to execute abusive strategies on an industrial scale.” - WSJ
Bitcoin market manipulations were the main concern lately for the Office of New York attorney general and even for SEC, named the main reason for ETF denials. The main concern is that manipulation goes against the stated purpose of Bitcoin as a replacement of fiat currencies.
To solve this situation, a team of the largest crypto companies has formed a consortium to act as a regulator. However, since it won’t have any legal backing, the organization will likely have no power to enforce.
Another negative headline was that MGT Capital Investments was sued over a pump and dump scheme. This is the firm founded by John McCaffe, one of the most influential cryptocurrency proponents in the world. John founded the eponymous cybersecurity firm. This investigation followed the SEC investigation into the former MGT securities CEO.
Bitcoin Today: Tether in trouble?Price
The movement proceeds inside the established boundaries, narrowing diapason between the Bullish Trend Line and 6660 resistance. The market does not expect any significant events, so, volatility stays low and lateral movement will probably remain. And, as usual, unplanned news are likely to be negative, hence, BTC position looks vulnerable right now. According to the latest news, Tether is facing new trust issue, one should keep an eye on how they will handle the situation, especially in a view of increasing popularity of making own stable coins among exchanges.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6400 - 6800 zone. Possible downward impulses.
Latest news
One of the Tether servicing banks are under the threat of closure
The Puerto Rico bank, Noble Bank, presumably servicing the accounts of Tether Ltd and Bitfinex, is facing with a lack of financing due to stagnation in the cryptocurrency market. This is reported by Modern Consensus with reference to its own sources.
In the hope of stabilizing the situation and getting financial support, representatives of Noble Bank contacted one of the major "holders" of Tether, but yet there was no response.
As Modern Consensus writes, if within a few days the bank's management does not find a way out of the situation, Noble Bank threatens to close.
Tether Ltd. may also face other problems. It was reported that recently some owner of USDT was unable to find a buyer for some a huge amount "tens of millions of tokens".
Let's note that last year the American bank Wells Fargo without any explanations has suspended service of Tether accounts.
Previously well-known trader and analyst Ton Weis already was predicting the disappearance of USDT stablecoin and his opinion is not exclusive. Nonetheless, Tether still stays one of the main entry points in the crypto world and till this point its team managed to handle well all similar accusations.
Bitcoin Today: September in a bearish candlePrice
Despite that the last week turned out to be bullish, bitcoin did not manage to close September above 7000, which leaves the monthly candle in a bearish state. Worth noting, that the last-week rally could be a manipulation in an attempt to close the monthly candle in a bullish state, which could be a good be a bullish signal for big players. Nonetheless, that did not happen, hence we could face even stronger resistance at 6800 – 7000 level and overall strong selling power. Closest boundaries for today are 6660 from above and Bearish Trend Line from below, break of each will add impulse in the corresponding direction.
Today forecast
Pivot Points 6450 and 6800; Trading channel 6500 – 6660. Breakthrough below 6450 – bearish sign.
Latest news
ShapeShift named the main part of the criminal money "laundry"
The Wall Street Journal published an article, in which it gives to the popular digital wallet/exchange service ShapeShift the biggest part in the laundering scheme for the almost $90 mln. of fraud money.
Until recently, the main feature of ShapeShift was the possibility of exchanging crypto-currency without the need to register and provide any personal data. This opportunity will be closed on October 1 with the official launch of a new membership program, which provides for mandatory registration of users.
Nevertheless, according to the publication, while this loophole was open, it was used in full. One example is the case of hackers behind the infamous Wannacry extortion virus. It is assumed that millions of dollars in bitcoins, which were received from the victims of the virus, were converted to ShapeShift in the anonymous cryptocurrency Monero, after their tracks are lost.
For its investigation, WSJ used special programs that tracked the movement of funds from more than 500 crypto-currency wallets, which are supposed to be associated with investment fraud, hackers, and extortionists. The identities of many alleged criminals are still not disclosed. Some of them were arrested, and some of the funds - less than $ 2 million - were apparently seized by the police.
The publication also contacted the fact that many companies were providing fake addresses on the ShapeShift platform. As the company's director for legal issues Veronika McGregor said, they were all studied and blocked.
She also noted that the new rules of ShapeShift, which come into force on October 1, are the company's desire to protect itself from risks, and the consequence of any actions on the part of regulators or law enforcement agencies.
In addition, Veronica McGregor commented on statements that Erik Voorhees has repeatedly done in the past, speaking of his commitment to the privacy of users. According to her, it is necessary to separate Voorhees` personal views from the company's policy.
“Just because it’s the personal philosophy of the CEO doesn’t mean that’s how the business is going to be run,” she said. “He’s not pro-money-laundering.”
However, as one of the main components of the report, WSJ compared the $2.7 billion per day banks have laundered over the past decade and $9 million allegedly laundered through ShapeShift. That is a discrepancy of $1.97 trillion, meaning that banks have laundered $1.97 trillion more in the space of 24 months than the crypto exchange.
Bitcoin Today: No 10x run until the breakthrough of 7000Price
BTCUSD managed to find a support at the 6450 level yesterday and took-off breaking above 6600 on the way. Now bitcoin is testing 6800 level, which was the turning point for the last bullish movement, overcoming this level will lead the main currency to the highly resistive area 6800 – 7000, which also contains the 100-days EMA. Breakthrough of this area will require higher volumes and momentum, otherwise, we will expect to see a rebound or at least a stumble inside this zone. For now, as the price bounced-off the 6800 level the main goal for the bullish view is to stay above 6600. While news sources filled with positive forecasts and promises of 10x growth, opening long positions still looks risky, as none of the main resistance levels has been passed (100-day EMA and 7000 level). Today important boundaries: 6600 as a support and 6800 as a resistance, break below 6600 will return the pair into a correctional pattern.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6400 - 6800 zone.
Latest news
Zebpay, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in India, shuts down
Launch in 2015, Zebpay quickly became one of India’s most-downloaded bitcoin wallet and exchange apps. Zebpay got about a million downloads on Android platform during 2017.
On its website, Zebpay indicates it has 3 million users using its iOS and Android apps, with support for 20 cryptocurrencies and 22 trading pairs.
From the Zebpay announcement:
“The curb on bank accounts has crippled our, and our customer’s, ability to transact business meaningfully. At this point, we are unable to find a reasonable way to conduct the cryptocurrency exchange business.”
Rumored to be in talks to raise an additional $4 million in funding at one stage, Zebpay is now stopping all exchange services at 16:00 local time on Friday. The move is a direct consequence of a crippling policy introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s central bank, to force all regulated financial institutions – including banks – from offering services to the domestic cryptocurrency industry.
“We are stopping our exchange. At 4 PM today, we will cancel unexecuted orders & credit your coins to your Zebpay wallet. No new orders will be accepted. The Zebpay wallet will work even after the exchange stops.” - @ Zebpay
Bitcoin Today: different opinionsPrice
Correctional movement proceeds, yesterday growth did not manage to reach 6600 resistance, turned around on the 6550 mark and fell to the 6450. The volatility decreases, which talks about uncertainty in the market. Near-term boundaries are 6550 and 6450 levels, without any significant events today the price will probably proceed inside this channel. 6600 – 7000 zone is a major resistance, so to consider any long-term bullish developments we need to break above the 7000 point. From the downside: a fall below 6350 will cancel the latest turnaround pattern and send the price to test the main support zone 5750 – 6250.
Today forecast
Trading in the 6350 - 6600 zone. Breakthrough below 6350 – bearish sign.
Two opinions
Mike Novogratz (Digital Galaxy founder)
Novogratz thinks that bitcoin already found a bottom and now the cryptocurrency is poised for major growth.
"You're seeing now institutions moving in," the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital told CNN international correspondent Paula Newton on CNNMoney's "Markets Now" on Wednesday.
Novogratz pointed out that exchanges and big companies are starting to take the cryptocurrency more seriously.
"Starbucks and Microsoft'll allow you to use bitcoin," he said. "As you see more adoption of just people being comfortable with it, it feels like it's going to go up."
Novogratz thinks the cryptocurrency hit bottom earlier this month. He predicts bitcoin will rally 30% by the end of the year. And in the first quarter of next year, "you'll really start seeing it move."
Jani Ziedins (retired trader and writer of the Cracked.Market blog)
As digital currency owners tout the resilience of bitcoin’s support at $6,000, the analyst believes the tenuous psychological level could soon disintegrate, noting the evidence isn’t in the support, but the weakness of every subsequent rally.
“While we held $6k support firmly for nearly six months, every bounce has been getting lower,”
Market technicians tend to view assets as remaining in bearish, or neutral, trend if prices fail to post higher highs.
“First, we bounced to $17k. Then it was $12k. $10k came next. After that $8.5k. Earlier this month it was $7.5k and this weekend we stalled $6.8k. At this point, it is only a matter of time before we tumble under $6k support,” he said.
Bitcoin is down 53% year-to-date and 67% from its all-time high achieved last December.