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BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *BULL TRAP WATCH. Bitcoin is at a critical resistance and is currently testing a one year descending trendline. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Energy, Gold, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX, Agriculture, EURUSD and CNYUSD are up. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned today leaving the Conservative Party looking for its third Prime Minister in as many years . Chatter from Federal Reserve staff continues to point to a 75bps rate hike with a strong possibility of 100bps, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (not a current FOMC member) said today that he expects FFR to be well above 4% by year end (it's currently at 3%-3.25%) . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently testing $19417 support for the fifty-third consecutive session as it retests the descending trendline from November 2021 for the first time since March 2022; this is a critical juncture that will influence whether BTC will retest $15k or breakout to $24k. Volume is on track to be both Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20k, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43.76 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~35. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 25 as it's still technically testing 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a fourth consecutive session but continues to trend sideways at -175 for what is now nine consecutive sessions; it's technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 12 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins trending up as Price continues to fall this would be mildly bearish, and if it falls as Price continues to go down this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $19417 resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance ; it's important to be wary of a potential Bull Trap in this environment. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$15.5k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% BTC, 75% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . As the world awaits Putin's next move on Ukraine and the West, the White House sent another $725m to Ukraine and Elon Musk reinstated free Starlink services to Ukraine today. Additionally, the White House's newly imposed sanctions on Chinese chipmakers is starting to be felt as many Chinese American workers are fleeing back to the USA and both supply + demand for Chinese chips is starting to see weakness. Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19.* Price is currently trending down slightly at ~19130 as it continues to test $19417 support for what is now thirty one consecutive sessions; it's approaching the descending trendline from November 2021 which will likely coincide with the 50 MA at ~$19800 as resistance. Volume was Low (moderate) and favored sellers for a second consecutive session in today's session; Price continues to trade in the POC. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20280, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 45 after bouncing off of 42.41 support for the fourth time in the past month. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is currently trending down at 10 as it approaches max bottom. MACD remains bearish for the second consecutive session and is continuing to trend sideways at -232.42 minor support for the sixth consecutive session. ADX is currently trending sideways at 15.5 as Price does the same at ~$19417, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and breakout above the 50 MA + the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$19800 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19800.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% BTC, 52% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are largely flat with some altcoins seeing buying pressure as we get halfway through the weekend. Someone has used a car bomb to explode the only supply line from Crimea to Russia and many presume it to be the Ukrainians , which reignites a whole new round of fears regarding the potential usage of chemical or nuclear warfare by Russia on Ukraine. Of course in this scenario, it would almost certainly result in NATO intervention and may finally be the event that gets the media to use the term World War 3. Because war is historically bullish for DXY, if rate hikes continue into 2023 and war escalates, you can almost assuredly bet that DXY will hit $120 like it did in the early 80's and 2000-02. And if DXY keeps going higher, "Risk-On" assets like Growth Stocks and Cryptos will likely keep going lower. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $19417 support for the second consecutive session as it gets closer to retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. Volume is Low (low) and currently on track to favor sellers for a fourth consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.3k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 46.5 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from January 2021 as support at 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support with no signs of trough formation, the next support after that is at 29.70. MACD remains bullish and continues to trend sideways for the third consecutive session at -70, it's still technically testing -232.42 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$20k as resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely continue to trend sideways until it reaches the descending trendline where it will either break out of the almost one year long descending trend or be rejected and fall to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at $15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two more consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral bullish. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *Cryptos, Equities, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all down while Equity Futures, Commodities, DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are all up. OPEC+ and the USA continue their ongoing battle as OPEC+ defied USA requests to not cut output . Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA as resistance at ~$20100 after bouncing off of $19417 support. Volume is High (moderate) and on track to break a two day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18627, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 54 after forming a peak just below 57.34 resistance, the next support is the descending trendline from January 2021 at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 96 as it approaches a test of max top with signs of a soft peak formation beginning to show. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at ~-100 as it continues to technically test -232.42 minor resistance with signs of a soft peak formation beginning to show. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 18 as Price attempts to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to break out above the 50 MA at ~$20100 then it will likely retest the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$22200 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially falling lower to retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are slightly down halfway through the weekend but mainly flat as investors prepare for another big week of economic data with the consensus estimate for the September Unemployment Rate staying the same at 3.7%. The escalation of the Russian attack of Ukraine will likely inflict more pain on global supply chains in the coming months. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.* Price is currently trending down at ~$19317 as it continues trading sideways just below $19417 resistance for the sixth consecutive session, the next support is the uptrend line form March 2017 at ~$15k. Volume is Low and on track to favor sellers for second consecutive session if it can close today in the red, Price has also been trading in the largest supply/demand zone (~$20k) for the 34th consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20185, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 45 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support with signs of a soft trough formation beginning to show; it's also still technically testing the descending trendline from January 2021 at ~43 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bearish at 92 in today's session and is currently trending down at 88, the next support is at 78. MACD remains bullish and continues to form a soft trough as it trends up slightly at -335, the next resistance (minor) is at -232 and support (minor) at -869. ADX is currently trending down at 21 as Price is trading sideways as it tries to edge higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to break above $19417 resistance and close above it for two consecutive sessions, it will likely retest the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$21k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash. *Technically, BTC and many other Cryptos look relatively good right now compared to Equities which have continued to get sold off in favor of DXY and US Treasuries; some may view this is as a decoupling moment, others as a market lag, and me as a technical correction ("everything is bearish, so it's bullish"). Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the need for crypto regulation , and also mentioned that it would take years of additional research for a 'Fedcoin', at a French central bank event today. September US Consumer Confidence rose to 108 compared to 103.6 in August . In the same optimistic light, US New Home Sales went up 28.8% from 532k in July to 685k in August . The 14th GDPNow Q3 GDP estimate remained the same as on 09/20 at 0.3% . Key Upcoming Dates: Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30; S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.* Price is currently retesting $19417 support for what is now 26 out of the past 30 sessions after briefly touching $20.4k. Volume is currently High (high) and on track to favor sellers for what would be four out of the past five sessions if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20474, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 43 after getting rejected by the descending trendline from January 2021 at ~44, the next support is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 55.55 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently on the verge of crossing over bullish at -453, if it can stay above -453 this would be a bullish crossover; the next resistance (minor) is at -232.42. ADX is currently trending down at 25 as Price attempts to get back above $19417 support, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to close above $19417 support for two consecutive sessions, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$21k as resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$22k. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *Cryptos and Equities started the day off in the green but are now selling off, interestingly Futures, Gold, DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are down while Energy and certain Precious Metals are up on the day. The Merge is scheduled to launch on Ethereum's Mainnet at around 1am EST tomorrow morning if all goes well . Risk-On markets are awaiting the decision by the Fed of whether to raise FFR 75bps or higher next week after a higher than expected CPI report yesterday. Key Upcoming Dates: The Merge (Ethereum) at ~1am EST 09/15; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; 12th GDPNow US Q3 US GDP estimate 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending down at ~$19800 after breaking below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~$21.3k) as it quickly approaches a retest of $19417 support. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $19548, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 44 and is testing the descending trendline from January 2021 at 44.5 as support, the next support is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bearish for the second consecutive session and is currently trending down at 63, the next support is at 55.55. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak as it tests -232 minor resistance; if it crosses below -417 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending down at 22 as Price is continuing to see downward pressure, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able bounce here then it will have to clear $20k psychological resistance before it can retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21.3k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely formally retest $19417 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $20k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% BTC, 30% Cash. *Cryptos are attempting to continue their rally into the weekend (surprisingly led by LUNA2) as we approach the week of the long anticipated Merge on Ethereum's mainnet. As economic data continues to improve and demand is beginning to get more in line with supply, markets appear to be ok with the Fed's commitment to getting FFR to 4% and having it there or above for the first half of 2023. Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at ~6pm EST 09/14; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending up at ~$21.5k as it attempts to reclaim the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at $21k; the next resistance is the 50 MA at ~$22k. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for four consecutive sessions if it closes today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.6k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 56 as it approaches a retest of 57.34 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 96 as it approaches a test of max top; even though it's approaching max top, it's still technically testing 78 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -420, the next resistance (minor) is at -232.42. ADX is currently trending down at 24 as Price continues to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to break above the 50 MA at ~$22k as resistance , the next likely target is a retest of $24180 resistance which would coincide with the descending trendline from November 2021 (as resistance). However, if Price is rejected by the 50 MA then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as support before potentially retesting $19417 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $21214.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *It's only 10:30pm in California right now so there's still a place in the world where I haven't missed a TA on 09/08/22. Today was just another day in 2022: Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that 75bps are still on the table for 09/21 , SEC Chair Gary Gensler said that most cryptocurrencies are securities but that Bitcoin (and likely Ether) should be regulated by the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission, mortgage rates are at the highest since 2008 (5.95%) and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying that the fall in gasoline brought headline inflation down in July and may do so again in August + that the US economy now is stronger than it was before the pandemic. Markets seemed to rally off of Yellen's comments, which brings the notion CPI may look good heading into midterms. Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13 ; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14 ; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending up at ~$20400 after bouncing off of $19417 support as it aims to test the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as resistance. Volume has shrunken for three consecutive sessions now and buyers for two, it is currently on track to both shrink and favor buyers again; if Volume shrinks again and Price continues rallying, this would be mildly bearish, but if Volume breaks out here along with Price this would be bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.6k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 48.5 after breaking above 42.41 resistance and the descending trendline from January 2021 at 45 (as resistance); the next resistance is at 57.34. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 78 resistance. MACD is currently crossing over bullish at -689, if it can hold then it will likely test the next resistance is at 313. ADX is currently trending down at 26 as Price is rallying higher, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher, it will likely test the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as resistance before potentially testing the 50 MA at ~$22k as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely retest $19417 support . Mental Stop Loss: (once close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% BTC, 48% Cash. *Cryptos are seeing some selling pressure as US Stock markets are closed for Labor Day to start the week. Equity Futures, DXY, Oil and US Treasuries are up while Gold and Cryptos are down or flat. Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07 ; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently continuing to trend sideways at ~$19700 as it hovers above $19417 support for the ninth consecutive session. Volume is Moderate (low) and is on track to favor sellers in today's session if it closes today in the red, this would make three of the past four sessions seller dominant. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20758, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after forming a soft peak at 38, the next support is at 26 and the next resistance at 42. Stochastic remains bullish and is continuing to trend sideways at 65 for a second session as it hovers above 56 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up slightly at -747 as it looks to complete a trough formation; if it cross above -700 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX continues to trend sideways at ~23 for the fourth consecutive session as Price continues to consolidate. If Price is able to break out of this consolidation to the upside then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18 at ~$21200 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
4
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash. *In the August Employment Situation, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 315,000 and Unemployment finally bucked the 7 month trend of declining or staying flat by increasing .2% from 3.5% in July to 3.7% in August. Cryptos and Equities rallied off the news early in the session and are currently in the red. After almost 6 months of Federal Reserve intervention via hawkish monetary policy... the Unemployment Rate finally goes up a bit, this slightly strengthens the credibility of the Fed in proving that their demand side interventions are starting to be effective (even if it's slight). That said, FFR futures traders are still largely betting on a 75bps rate increase on 09/21. Cryptos still have a bit of bullishness leading up to Ethereum's 'The Merge' on 09/15, but it's quickly withering. CPI on 08/13 should help provide more guidance regarding what the FOMC will do on 09/21. Key Upcoming Dates: 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently continuing to trend sideways at $20k psychological support for the seventh consecutive session. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor sellers in today's session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $21.4k, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after forming a soft peak at 38; the next support is the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at ~30 while the next resistance is at 42. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 59 with no signs of peak formation as it tests 55.55 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently continuing to form a trough at -747 as it hovers above -869 minor support; if it can break above -659 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 24 as Price trends sideways, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support ; if Price loses $19417 support then it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $21k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily Cautiously Bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *Cryptos continue to see a sell off into the weekend following Jerome Powell's remarks yesterday at Jackson Hole. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester praised Powell's speech and commented that FFR will likely have to remain above 4% for 2023 . Now the question becomes, at what point have markets fully priced in a 4%+ FFR in 2023? The DXY will surely be driven higher as it is currently at $108.83 and approaches $112 minor resistance, and history suggests that Risk-On assets are hit hardest when the dollar attracts liquidity. Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.* Price is currently continuing to break down out of the uptrend line from 06/18/22 and risks losing $20k psychological support if it breaks below by 8pm EST tomorrow. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor sellers in two consecutive sessions if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $23445, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 31 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 30. Stochastic remains bearish for a second consecutive session and is trending down at 9. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -630, the next support (minor) is at -869. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and defend $20k psychological support, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here then it will likely formally retest $19417 support before potentially falling lower to retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at $15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $21k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% BTC, 53% Cash. * The 7th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 1.4% this morning compared to 1.6% on 08/17/22. Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Soy, Silver, Copper, and Platinum), Futures, Treasuries and DXY are all up while the Euro is flat and VIX is trending down. Markets have been volatile this week leading up to tomorrow's penultimate Q2 GDP estimate, July PCE on Thursday (if lower than June or surprises to the downside this would be a sign of inflation cooling down) and Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. As of now the consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but some are expecting a dovish pivot if July PCE inflation is down substantially on Thursday. Key Upcoming Dates: 2nd US Q2 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25 ; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on 08/26).* Price is currently trending up at $21.7k as it attempts to bounce off of the largest supply/demand zone of the year ($20k psychological resistance) to retest the 50 MA at $22.4k; it is also simultaneously forming a Bear Flag starting from 08/19/22. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in two consecutive sessions if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$24180 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing 42.41 as resistance for the first time since 07/13/22. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 25, the next resistance is at 29.70 and support at max bottom; if it breaks below 22 then it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at -364, it's still technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 19.62 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$22.4k as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$21k as support before potentially retesting $19417 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $20720.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *This bearish week was marked by degrading economic data from China, Germany and the USA, stoking global recession fears once again. China is currently seeing a weaker consumer (due to still ongoing effects of the Covid lockdowns), heat waves affecting factories, a weakening property sector (in need of infrastructural support) and slower export growth as a result of the massive global supply chain restructuring currently taking place. Germany is still reeling from sanctions and interruptions regarding the Nord Stream Pipeline as they prepare for a energy shortage this winter while the Rhine River is reportedly seeing a drought that has affected their ability to load barges to full capacity, adding to the economic growth woes they are likely to face for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, the USA remains committed to tightening further and raising central bank interest rates beyond neutral as the US Housing and Credit market begins to show signs of weakness; this has led to a drop in the forecast for Q3 GDP. Though bearish at the moment, the uptrend in Bitcoin remains supported as long as it stays above $20k psychological support (also the uptrend line from 06/18/22). Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST 08/23; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA as support at ~$22k after being rejected by $24181 minor resistance for the third time since 07/20/22. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor sellers for six consecutive days if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $25.2k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI has broken below 3 supports in one fall and is currently trending down at 36 with no signs of trough formation as it still technically tests 42.41 support. Stochastic is currently testing max bottom and is beginning to form a soft trough. MACD is on day two of being bearish and is currently testing 313 support. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 20 as Price falls, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce off of the 50 MA at ~$22k as support then the next likely target is a retest of $24181 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at ~$20k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) the 50 MA (~$22k).
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% BTC, 25% Cash . *July US Housing Starts are down -9.5% from June (compared to -2.5% consensus estimates); July US Building Permits are down -1.3% from June but are up 1.1% from June of 2021. The big miss on Housing Starts is reflective of recessionary fears and rising interest rates hindering people from wanting to commit to a mortgage right now. The 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is 1.8% , down from 2.5% in the 4th estimate on 08/10. Major cryptos continue to lag behind Equities while altcoins are seeing a majority of the gains recently, which begs the question of wen BTC? Treasuries, Equities and Crypto are up and DXY, Gold, Commodities (aside from Nat Gas) are flat or down. Key dates this week: US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17 ; FOMC Minutes 2pm EST 08/17 .* Price is currently testing $24180 minor support after briefly testing the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle from 07/18/22 at $23.5k as support, the Ascending Triangle formation is still valid. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor sellers if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22.8k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 06/18 at 54; and though it appears far at the moment, it's still technically testing the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 + 57.34 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 62 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at 55.55; it's also still technically testing 78 support but is on the verge of losing it if the D% line falls below 78 (it is currently at 78.5). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 490, if it crosses below 470 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending sideways at 22 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to break (and close) above $24180 resistance , the next likely target is a retest of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $27k-$28k as resistance . However, if Price breaks below the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle from 07/18 at $23.5k as support then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$22.2k as support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at $20k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $23.5k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily TA neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 65% BTC, 35% Cash. *SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH. Cryptos had a relatively flat weekend as the DXY continues to see downward pressure leading into a likely volatile week for all markets. Key dates this week: Google and Microsoft earnings 07/26; Meta earnings 07/27; FOMC statement on whether or not to raise more than 75bps at 2:00pm (EST) 07/27 ; First Q2 GDP estimate at 830am (EST) 07/28 ( current GDPNow estimate is -1.6% ); Amazon and Apple earnings 07/28; PCE inflation report released at 830am (EST) 07/29 . If tech earnings and/or revenue misses and forward guidance is dismal, it will likely add bearish pressure to the major indexes. The first official Q2 GDP estimate will likely come in negative but if it comes in lower than the final Q1 estimate (-1.6%) then it may bring more risk-on traders back to markets, however if it comes in higher than -1.6% it will likely send short-term jitters through markets. As for the rate hike announcement on 07/27, 75bps is already priced in to markets. FFR futures are pointing to a 2.36% FFR by September (the effective FFR is currently 1.58%) which means very few traders are betting on a 100bps rate hike, this is largely due to shrinking PCE inflation (the Fed's favored measure of inflation) over the past 4 months (it is currently at November 2021 levels). However, though slim, there is still a possibility for a 100bps hike with resilient retail sales and a higher CPI increase in June than in May.* Price is currently testing the 200 MA as support at ~$22.5k for the fifth consecutive session. Volume is currently Low and on track to break a four session streak of sellers dominance if it can close today's session in the green; additionally, Volume has shrunken for the past six session which is indicative of a potential breakout/breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $20.3k, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 55 after bouncing at 54, just below the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at 57 resistance. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 78 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 313 resistance. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 21 as Price continues to trade sideways at the 200 MA, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX is able to bounce as Price pushes higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to bounce here off the 200 MA (~$22.5k) it would help to confirm that is has established support and will likely push price to formally retest $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down below the 200 MA then it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $21.6k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
Bitcoin trading channel June/July predictionthis is a similar scenario to trias, which was provided in my previous post. I am not sure how long we will be in this channel but it does give us any idea when a breakout is expected and an idea of the grand scheme mid term for bitcoin. for trias i think we will ride higher in the channel until it crashes right after bitcoin finds its bottom. I dought this is the bottom for bitcoin, maybe 18-16k quickly but I dought anymore than that.
by joshwashington
2
CountOnCrypto - Bitcoin Forecast 14/05/2021Bitcoin has retraced, I see a clear bullish divergence on the 10h timeframe which signals a possible reversal either tomorrow or over the following week. The sell volume is currently low, we have attempted to break the resistance but failed. I'm expecting us to make a higher low here and then re-test the resistance (white horizontal line). That horizontal line was a level from the inverse head and shoulders in one of my previous analysis linked below. A simple stoploss will protect us from extensive loss incase we break to the downside, the market is volatile and weekends are often unforgiving. Make sure you do your own research and don't risk any money on the market that you're not willing to lose!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by CountOnCrypto
7
BTC/USDThis is a short trade I entered last night. I do anticipate it to hit my TP. There are many factors I am taking into play for this but one of them is the Bitcoin dominance has been on a downtrend for a long time now, and it's almost dropped below 50% dominance for the first time in over 3 years. With Altcoins becoming more and more popular, this is resulting in bitcoin demand slowly weakening. PLUS on the technical side of things, it has respected my zone rather well and isn't showing any TRUE signs of continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FreaKaneOut
1