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Bitcointrades

Bitcoin Update 14/08/21: Short-term Swing OpportunityBitcoin Update 14/08/21: Update: Currently 4% Gain from this Short-term Swing Opportunity, stops just below $43,812, TP @ $51,068 at the 61.80% Fibs, additional TP at the 78.60% @ $57,125 (19% Gain from current price level). Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) The Bitcoin Bulls are Back! After setting a new ATH @ $64,841 in April, Bitcoin experienced its the first major sell (some may say manipulated) off in this Bull Run Cycle (-50% from the top). We have been closely watching the BTC chart for a strong trend reversal signal. From the ATH @ $64,841, Bitcoin formed a triple bottom in the $28-30k region, the last bottom experienced on the 21st July is confirmed as our bottom here. The Swing Call Script gave further confirmation of the strong trend reversal as a Buy signal was triggered on the 4H Chart on the 22 July and further on the 6th August showing strong signs of bullish momentum back into the market. From here we expect BTC to retest the current ATH @ $64k which is a 40% Gain from the current price @ $45k. Further to this, we can expect some heavy resistance between the 61.80% - 78.60% fibonacci level. A clear break past the 78.60% fibonacci level see BTC setting a new ATH at the 127.20% fibonacci level. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) BTC finally testing the 200 SMA and is showing strong signs of bullish momentum as we see the BTC Bulls coming back into the market 🚀. After 4 failed attempts of trying to break above the key resistance @ $38,595 BTC has finally broken above this key price level. Since the crash BTC found its Bottom tanking down -51% on the 19th May to $28,787 from $57,777 and had previous retraced from the ATH price @ $64,841 to $46,814 (-27%). BTC has been in a whale accumulation zone for the past 27 days from 19th May to 15th June. Our Swing Call Script triggered a strong buy signal for #BTC LONG when the 13 EMA crossed up above the 50 SMA on the 10th June; BTC has since increased over 10% in just over 5 days. From the current price level we have longs positioned and the current TP 1 is at the 127.20% Fibonacci level @ $74,647 (85% gain from current price level) and TP 2 at the 161.80% Fibonacci level @ $87,122 (116% from current price level). Note the price targets are for long term swings, we may be in this accumulation phase a little longer. Happy Trading :). See previous analysis below. Bitcoin Update 02/04/21 Next Target @ $66,953 13% Gain New ATH in April I've loved charting BTC last Month, analysis has been quite spot on just waiting on our new ATH now @$66,953 13% Gain from current price level. #Bitcoin has found key support around $58k price level. It looks like the Bitcoin Bulls are back in the market. Worst case scenario from here in the short-term could see the price test the 50SMA, and breaking below this level would see another test of the 200SMA before the anticipated move to the upside and our target of $66.953 at the 127.20% Fibonacci level. See previous analysis below. Happy trading :) Update 29/03/21 Bitcoin next Target @ $66,953 21% Gain Nice bounce from the whale accumulation zone at the 78.60% Fibonacci Level. Looks like the BTC Bulls are back in the market. See previous analysis below. BTC Monthly Outlook Update (23/03/2021) Approaching Whale Accumulation Zone at the 78.60% Fibonacci level @ $52,371. Interesting next few days from here as a bounce from the 200 SMA at the whale accumulation zone could finally see us break through the key resistance at the current ATH level from 14/03/21 @ $61,690. April is set to be a very interesting and pivotal month for the cryptocurrency space. See previous analysis and monthly outlook below. Happy Trading :) #whaleaccumulationzone Update 21/03/21: Yesterday the Bulls failed to push the price higher and we had a small retracement down from $59.5k to $55.6 where we found some support of the current price level (-7%). From here the worst case scenario would find us in a key whale accumulation zone @ 78.60% Fibonacci level $52,371. However this scenario is unlikely to play out and as expected from the previous outlook before, we expect the Bulls to come back in the market, pushing as further to higher highs as we have been consolidating around this key price range between $54.5K to the current ATH @ $61.8k. If we fail to break past the previous ATH , the bearish scenario may see a test of the 200 SMA around the 78.60% Fibonacci level, otherwise the Bullish scenario is still in play. Note that from this current trend from 28th January we have only tested the 200 SMA once and a bounce from this level may signal a much stronger bullish move towards our price target $77,335 @ the 161.80% Fibonacci extension and further $107,340 @ the 261.80% Fibonacci level. So far great performance this month from £BTC as March is usually quite a bearish month looking back at the past. April looks ready for us to really fly, testing the 161.80% Fibonacci extension , but note this may not be a straight forward push but all the fundamentals are pointing towards the $70K as our next significant area of interest for the Bulls, currently a 16% gain from the current price level would see BTC reach $66,953 127.20% Fib extension. See previous analysis from 1st March 2021 below. Happy Trading :) $BTC #HODL *Update 20/03/21 #BTC Monthly Outlook Update from 1st March 2021; 13 EMA crossing up 50 SMA showing strong bullish sentiment as we are about to enter the last week of the month, expect the bulls to come back and to push the price higher. Currently the 127.20% Fibonacci Target ($66,953) has not been tested yet, but we expect some big movement in price over the next few days and further going into the last week of the month (Yes, it has been March Madness), 13% Gain from the current price level @ $59,390 to $66,953 127.20% Fib extension. Our next target after this is $77,335 @ the 161.80% Fibonacci extension . From our analysis at the beginning of the month It looks like scenario 2 has been in play, see below previous analysis from 2nd March 2021. In addition to previous price analysis, the Cryptocurrency 'Super Cycle' is in play as we are just at the brink of global adoption. 2017/18 was the hype era, we cannot continue to set targets based on the price movements during the cycle mainly fuelled by hyper and euphoria, it is now 4 years later and real development has been happening behind the scenes, a lot of people cannot quite comprehend the growth and the different cycle that we are now in as Moore's Law of exponential growth can only give us a hint at the growth that is about to be experienced over the next 4 year cycle. An increased influx of capital injection into this now trillion dollar market will only continue, as Defi takes its hold on current Global financial infrastructure, and yes history repeats itself, We call this the 'Roaring 20s' just like before at the end of WW1, the pandemic has only accelerated the current adoption rate of blockchain technology. As some are already aware, the best time to grow a million dollar portfolio was from 2009 to 2019 just after the housing market crash. The second best time in our lifetime is Now! from 2021 to 2029 after the pandemic market crash. We are still very much Bullish for BTC to reach our EOY Target of $356,000, See below key fundamentals which support our bullish sentiment. *(March 02, 2021 Update) BTC is currently consolidating at 61.80 Fibonacci Level. BTC outlook for the month ahead is still very much bullish . Although the sellers have been in control of the market since soaring to a new ATH on 21/02/21, BTC took a sharp retracement as expected at these new level of resistance as well as a new ATHof$58,792 on the Gemini Exchange. As from historic highs we see a lot of profit taking occurring after 3 weeks of setting new constant highs from the previous low of the last push wave which saw BTC setting a high of $42K and then sharply retracing down to $28,787 where we found the previous resistance and also the beginning of the last phase which saw one of the greatest run of Bitcoin in history, reaching the current ATH of $58,792. With the current push phase now over we find ourselves asking how low can we go from here and when do we expect to break past a new ATH . This outlook is based on 2 possible scenarios which could both play out. We have seen the 50% Fibonacci retracement level respected on the last 2 Push phases which both set new ATHs, the first being $42K and latter, the recent high of $58K. As we have seen a strong retracement over the past 7 days back down to the 50% Fibonacci, it may be time for the BTC Bulls to regain control of the market as the current fundamentals point to the 50%-38.2% Fibonacci level of key resistance as well as a point of accumulation for the BTC whales, more importantly the $39,000 mark when looking left at the previous key resistance before the parabolic move to the $58k ATH . With this in mind, from the current levels we could see the price of BTC sink further before the much expected move which could see BTC testing the previous High of $58k and further pushing to the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level setting a new ATH @ $66,953. Scenario 2 would see the current push towards the ATH continue but may face some resistance, and further consolidation expected around $46k-$49k as they are the key Whale Supports towards the upside, so a further retracement could be in play, possibly testing the 50% Fibonacci level, as well as the 50 SMA , with a bounce confirming an explosive move to the upside which could see BTC easily smash past the 127.20% Fib extension level setting new fresh Highs between $67,000-$78,400+ by mid to late March. Use the buy zone indicated to map out your position as a possible 52% gain is achievable from the Buy zone. Stochastics showing an extremely oversold market condition. Happy Trading :) * Key Supporting Fundamentals for BTC: Strong Interest of Institutional Players A survey of institutional investors and wealth managers who already engage with bitcoin reveals that 85 per cent plan to increase their investment in the cryptocurrency over the next two years. The survey, which was commissioned by Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), a regulated investment manager connecting traditional finance with the digital assets market, also reveals that between now and 2023, 72 per cent expect professional investors in general to invest in bitcoin for the first time or increase their exposure. Current Economic Instability The policy of the US Federal Reserve and the economic instability that has arisen as a result of the unprecedented emission of new dollars may further play a role in the growth of Bitcoin price...10% of the $380 billion stimulus money could be going directly into cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin . Digital Gold Crypto currencies certainly look as if they’re here to stay. It makes a lot of sense to have them in an increasingly digitised world. While bitcoin has a strong tendency to polarise opinion, it has now gained acceptance among some of the world’s largest financial institutions and payments companies. MasterCard, for instance, has said it will begin supporting crypto currencies on its network later this year. PayPal already allows eligible users to buy, sell and hold bitcoin in the US and expects to roll out its service in other territories soon. The Case For Global Adoption and New Reserve Currency Cryptocurrencies promise to help solve problems that are particularly acute in emerging markets (EM). Their governments are often centralized but relatively unreliable, which destabilizes currencies, opens the door to profiteering middlemen, and erodes public trust. Blockchain, the technology behind Bitcoin’s decentralized network, promises to cut out the grasping hands of governments and middlemen, and speed up transactions with more transparency and lower fees. It is offering what many EM customers are desperate for. The Development and Extensions of Blockchain Technology Due to the nature of blockchain technology’s ability to benefit all parties involved in different business operations. Since it was introduced in 2009 through the application of Bitcoin , blockchain technology continues to attract not just the financial institutions of the world, but also other fields and industries in insurance , law, entertainment and the Internet of Things ( IOT ) applications. Several scholars and advocates have also strongly suggested the use of the technology in voting systems globally, medical records and vehicle registrations by the state to further increase efficiency, simultaneously eradicating fraud in many areas. This technology does not only aim to improve conventional business operations but can also empower the greater society out of poverty as 1.7 billion adults in the world remain unbanked. The widespread adoption of a cryptocurrency like bitcoin running on the blockchain would mean that anyone with access to the internet can send and receive value from point A to B without the need of a third party. Although many Banks were very hesitant and in fact spread fear in the markets due to cryptocurrencies being linked to nefarious activities on the dark web. A recent study by Goldman Sachs suggested that the adoption of blockchain technology in facilitating seamless cross border transactions without the worry of fraudulent transactions could save up to $6 billion a year; as the new models currently being developed by the bank would mean inefficient payment and accounting networks would be eradicated.
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by CryptocurrencyMagnet
1
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/02/22Hi guys! I will be sharing the trades that I take in real time, follow to see how my trades work out! If you like this post, please support me by clicking the like and follow buttons. Also feel free to share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below! And don’t forget to check out my daily analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins! Market Overview Price Action: Bitcoin is breaking out hard and has established a new alltimehigh @ $58.4K! It is now testing the 200MAs and likely going to give us a long signal upon close of the latest 15 minute candle. Patterns: N/A Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for me are the ATH @ $56.4K. Once price reaches one of these areas, I will monitor for entry confirmations. If the entry confirmations are aligned, I will take a trade and share the my trade in real time. Trade Setups Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading: Aside from the potential long at current levels, which will be confirmed in a few minutes when this latest 15Min candle closes, I'm also looking for the following setups. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation 1. Price Action: Price breaks above and falls back down to $58.4K and bounce back up. 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bullish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD bottoming Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout 1. Price Action: Price breaks above and then falls below the high @ $58.4, forming a bull trap 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: A breakout candlestick followed by a breakdown candlestick, above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, MACD topping out My Recent Trades 2021/ 02/012:I had a losing trade. I entered into a long @ $47,810, SL @ $46,647, and trade hit stop loss. 2021/ 02/04: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $$36,819.0, SL @ $$36,528.0, price reached a high of $37,783.8, giving a risk reward ratio of 3.3:1. 2021/ 01 /31: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $33654 SL @ $33292, price reached a high of $34220, giving a risk reward ratio of 1.6:1. About Me I started trading in 2008, first got introduced to bitcoin in 2009, and have been actively trading cryptocurrencies since 2016. I have worked on Wall Street trading bonds, stocks, and options. I have taken hundreds of live trades, each recorded with over 50 data points, all meticulously analyzed, using data analysis and modeling to optimize win probability and risk reward. Why Follow Me Daily analysis on the latest market movements and price zones for high probability trade setups. Sharing of live trades that I take. A great place to help each other, learn from each other, and grow together. Trading education including a comprehensive cryptocurrency trading eBook, personal advice, and other educational materials Constantly testing and adding new trading strategies and refining battle-tested ones. DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a financial advisor and this post is NOT financial/investment/trading advice. I will not be responsible for any actions you take based on the analysis and comments that I provide. I am simply sharing what I am doing, and is not meant to be investment or trading advice. What you choose to do with the information that I provide is your own sole responsibility! The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and you WILL lose all your money if you are inexperienced! DO NOT risk any money that you cannot afford to lose and always be cautious and manage your risk! Please support me by liking and following, and sharing your ideas and analysis in the comments! Thanks!
by cryptotraderog
7
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/27Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin is stuck consolidating at the 200MAs, bouncing within a tight range around the 200MAs Patterns: No patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the 200MAs @ $32.2K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace back up to test the 200MAs and then continue moving down. 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $32.2K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bearish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD topping out TRADESS RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/27: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $32236 SL @ $32658, price reached a low of $31350, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. 2021/01/26: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $31643 SL @ $31171, price reached a high of $32450, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1.7, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1.7BTC. 2021/01/20: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $34940 SL @ $35560, price reached a low of $28850, giving us a risk reward ratio of 10:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 10BTC. Why Follow Me Daily analysis on the latest market movements and price zones for high probability trade setups. Live trade signals so that you can take the same trades that I am taking. A great place to help each other, learn from each other, and grow together. Trading education in the form of personal advice and educational materials Constantly testing and adding new trading strategies and refining battle-tested ones. About Me I started trading in 2008, first got introduced to bitcoin in 2009, and have been actively trading cryptocurrencies since 2016. I have worked on Wall Street trading bonds, stocks, and options. I have worked at top consulting firms advising Fortune 500 companies and worked on $10Billion+ deals. I have founded and advised blockchain projects and companies, including in the areas of defi, nft, data ownership, and personal identity. I have taken hundreds of live trades, each recorded with over 50 data points, all meticulously analyzed, using data analysis and modeling to optimize win probability and risk reward. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following, and sharing your ideas and analysis below! Thanks!
by cryptotraderog
5
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/26Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin is stuck consolidating at the 200MAs, even as ETH has broken out to the upside. Waiting to see if BTC follows ETH or continues to languish. Chart Patterns: No patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the 61.8Fib @ $31150. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace down to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving up. 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 61.8Fib @ $31150 and bounce back up. 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bullish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD bottoming TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/20: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $34940 SL @ $35560, price reached a low of $28850, giving us a risk reward ratio of 10:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 10BTC. 2021/01/19: We had a winning trade! We had a signal from a strategy in the testing stage. We entered short @ $36760 SL @ $37150, price reached a low of $36K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. Why Follow Me Daily analysis on the latest market movements and price zones for high probability trade setups. Live trade signals so that you can take the same trades that I am taking. A great place to help each other, learn from each other, and grow together. Trading education in the form of personal advice and educational materials Constantly testing and adding new trading strategies and refining battle-tested ones. About Me I started trading in 2008, first got introduced to bitcoin in 2009, and have been actively trading cryptocurrencies since 2016. I have worked on Wall Street trading bonds, stocks, and options. I have worked at top consulting firms advising Fortune 500 companies and worked on $10Billion+ deals. I have founded and advised blockchain projects and companies, including in the areas of defi, nft, data ownership, and personal identity. I have taken hundreds of live trades, each recorded with over 50 data points, all meticulously analyzed, using data analysis and modeling to optimize win probability and risk reward. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following, and sharing your ideas and analysis below! Thanks!
by cryptotraderog
33
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/22Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin had a flash crash of almost 20%, falling below $30K and setting a low of $28850. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the 200MAs @ $32.8-33.4K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/20: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $34940 SL @ $35560, price reached a low of $28850, giving us a risk reward ratio of 10:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 10BTC. 2021/01/19: We had a winning trade! We had a signal from a strategy in the testing stage. We entered short @ $36760 SL @ $37150, price reached a low of $36K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace back up to test the 200MAs and then continue moving down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $32.8-33.4K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out STRATEGY TYPES My strategies fall into three categories: 1. Official strategies are those that have proven to be profitable over a large number of trades 2. Testing strategies are those that have proven to be profitable but the sample size is relatively small 3. Formulating strategies are strategies that are still in development ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
6
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/20Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin traded in an upwards sloping channel up to $37.8K and then broke down from the channel and currently trending lower after breaking the 200MAs to the downside. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the primary 61.8 Fib @ $35.4. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/19: We had a winning trade! We had a signal from a strategy in the testing stage. We entered short @ $36760 SL @ $37150, price reached a low of $36K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. 2021/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace down to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 61.8Fib @ $35.4 and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out STRATEGY TYPES My strategies fall into three categories: 1. Official strategies are those that have proven to be profitable over a large number of trades 2. Testing strategies are those that have proven to be profitable but the sample size is relatively small 3. Formulating strategies are strategies that are still in development ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
10
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/19Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin established a new low at $33850 and has since traded in an upwards channel, moving slowly back up. Chart Patterns: We are trading in a narrow upwards sloping channel. Need to pay attention when we test / break the channel top /bottom. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the primary 61.8 Fib @ $37.7K and the lows @ $33.8K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. 2021/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries. 2021/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks below the then rapidly climbs above $33.8K, forming a bear trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick followed by a reclaiming candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.7K and bounce back down. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out STRATEGY TYPES My strategies fall into three categories: 1. Official strategies are those that have proven to be profitable over a large number of trades 2. Testing strategies are those that have proven to be profitable but the sample size is relatively small 3. Formulating strategies are strategies that are still in development ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
4
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/18Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin bounced off of the lows @ $34.4K to a high of $36.8K. Overall market volatility is getting restricted, indicating a potential large break coming up. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the primary 61.8 Fib @ $37.7K and the lows @ $33.8K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. 2021/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries. 2021/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #2: False Breakdown To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks below the then rapidly climbs above $33.8K, forming a bear trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick  followed by a reclaiming candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.7K and bounce back down. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out STRATEGY TYPES My strategies fall into three categories: 1. Official strategies are those that have proven to be profitable over a large number of trades 2. Testing strategies are those that have proven to be profitable but the sample size is relatively small 3. Formulating strategies are strategies that are still in development ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
4
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/16Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin rallied to a high of $40.1K before having a flash crash to $34.4K, and is now trading near the lows. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the primary 61.8 Fib @ $34.1K and the secondary 61.8Fib @ $37.9K . Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2021/01/15: We had a winning trade! This was a trade using a strategy in testing. We entered long @ $38470 SL @ $37770, price reached a high of $38780, giving us a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 0.5BTC. This is our smallest win so far, but a win is a win, and this is the first step on our road back to profitable trades. 2021/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries. 2021/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together! TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace down to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 61.8Fib @ $34.1K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.9 and bounce back down. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out
by cryptotraderog
9
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/14Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin bounced from a low of $30.4K to a high of $38.2K, a rally of >23%, and is now testing the 61.8 Fib. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the current level @ $37.5K, the highs of $42K, and the 200MAs @ $35.0-35.5K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /11: We had two losing trades! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries. 2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $35.0-35.5K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above and then falls below the high of $42K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick  followed by a breakdown candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
4
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/11Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! Also check out my daily post on Ethereum! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: BTC crashed from a high of $42K to a low of $35K, a 17% correction. and has since started to stabilize. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
 Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the lows @ $35.1K and the 200MAs & 61.8 Fib @ $39.2-39.6K Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
 TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had two winning trades. "e entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. We then entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is our biggest win so far in 2021!
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks below the low of $35.1K and then rapidly climbs above $35.1K, forming a bear trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick  followed by a reclaiming candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace back up to test the 200MAs and then continue moving down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $39.2-39.6K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
4
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/10Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: BTC made a new multi-year high @ $42K and has been consolidating since between the 200MAs and the ATH. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
 Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $42K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
 TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had two winning trades. "e entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. We then entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is our biggest win so far in 2021!
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #2: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to create a new high, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above $42K, falls back down to $42K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume signal candle 4. MACD: MACD bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $42K and then rapidly falls below $42K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick  followed by a breakdown candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
11
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/09Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: BTC made a new multi-year high @ $42K and has been consolidating since. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
 Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $42K and the 200MAs @ $39-39.3K Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
 TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC. 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had two winning trades. "e entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. We then entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is our biggest win so far in 2021!
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $39-39.3K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Long Trade Setup #2: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to create a new high, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above $42K, falls back down to $42K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume signal candle 4. MACD: MACD bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $42K and then rapidly falls below $42K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick  followed by a breakdown candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
14
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/08Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: BTC made a new multi-year high @ $40.4K and then had a violent correction, a selloff of 9%+ from peak to bottom. Chart Patterns: No patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the high @ $40.4K and the 200MAs projected @ $$36.8K-37.2K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had another winning trade! We entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is one of our biggest wins so far!
 2020/ 01 /01: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, we could've also entered a short on ETH, entered short @ $735, SL $743, price reached a low of $714, giving a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC.
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to create a new high, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above $40.4K, falls back down to $40.4K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume signal candle 4. MACD: MACD bottoming out Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $36.8K-$37.2K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $40.4K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $40.4K and then rapidly falls below $40.4K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick  followed by a breakdown candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks! Please share your ideas and analysis below so we can all learn together!
by cryptotraderog
10
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/07Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me! MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin established a new ATH @ $37.3K, and is now retracing slightly. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
 Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $37.3K, the S&R flip @ $35.8K, and the 200MAs @ $34.1-34.5K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
 TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/01/06: We entered short @ $34.7K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$35.3K, and price reached a low of $33.4K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had 2 winning trades! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. We then entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is one of our biggest wins so far!
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (S&R Flip) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the S&R flip and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the S&R flip @ $35.8K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $34.1-34.5K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown 3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $37.3K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $37.3K and then rapidly falls below $37.3K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick  followed by a breakdown candlestick 3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakout candle and breakdown candle 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks!
by cryptotraderog
1
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/06LIVE TRADES WILL BE CALLED IN THE LATEST DAILY POST. FOLLOW ME TO TRADE LIVE WITH ME. MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin established a new ATH @ $34.8K, then had a flash crash down to $28.1K. After a rapid bounce from $28.1K, price retraced to the 61.8 Fib retracement where it gave confirmation of a second leg up, and we are now nearing the ATH again in that second leg. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
 Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $34.8K and the 200MAs @ $32.2-32.5K (in this specific case, if we were to test the 200MAs, I would prefer price to slowly come to it so that the 200MAs have time to become upwards sloping). Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
 TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
 2020/ 01 /01: We had another winning trade! We entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is one of our biggest wins so far!
 2020/ 01 /01: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, we could've also entered a short on ETH, entered short @ $735, SL $743, price reached a low of $714, giving a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC.
 TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K with force, creating space between the price and $34.8K, falls back down to $34.8K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar , or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $32.2-32.5K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) NOTE: For the highest probability trades, price touches both the 200SMA and the 200EMA. If price only touches 1 of the 200MAs, the win probability decreases, and if price doesn't touch any of the 200MAs, the win probability is even lower. In a strongly trending market, the win probability for touching one or none of the 200MAs is higher than for a slow-moving market, but it is still higher risk. Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $34.8K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K and then rapidly falls below $34.8K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $34.8K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $34.8K) 2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two 2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks 3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green) NOTE: For false breakout/false breakdown trade setups, sometimes trading the other pair (eg. trading BTC when the setup is on ETH and vice versa) can be even more profitable if the other pair is looking weaker (for false breakout setup) or stronger (for false breakdown). Some indicators to consider are where the price is relative to the 200MAs, size of recent candles, volume , and overall price action, market structure, and chart patterns. ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please support me by liking, sharing, commenting, and following! Thanks!
by cryptotraderog
6
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY LONG&SHORT TRADE SETUPS 2021/01/04LIVE TRADES WILL BE CALLED IN THE LATEST DAILY POST. FOLLOW ME TO TRADE LIVE WITH ME. MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin established a new ATH @ $34.8K and has slowly retraced, now nearing the 200MAs. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $34.8K and the 200MAs @ $32-32.5K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP:: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/01/03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital. 2020/01/01: We had another winning trade! We entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is one of our biggest wins so far! 2020/01/01: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, we could've also entered a short on ETH, entered short @ $735, SL $743, price reached a low of $714, giving a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K with force, creating space between the price and $34.8K, falls back down to $34.8K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $32-32.2K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $34.8K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K and then rapidly falls below $34.8K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $34.8K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $34.8K) 2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two 2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks 3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green) NOTE: For false breakout/false breakdown trade setups, sometimes trading the other pair (eg. trading BTC when the setup is on ETH and vice versa) can be even more profitable if the other pair is looking weaker (for false breakout setup) or stronger (for false breakdown). Some indicators to consider are where the price is relative to the 200MAs, size of recent candles, volume , and overall price action, market structure, and chart patterns. ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Potential good trading opportunities that I’m not calling an official entry on will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT Entry: typically enter at close of entry signal candle Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. Make sure to follow the latest daily post, as trades will be called in that post. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME! DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. QUESTION: Would you like me to conduct technical analysis on alts? If yes, please let me know in the comments which alts you’d like me to cover.
by cryptotraderog
9
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY BUY&SELL TRADE SETUPS 2020/12/29Market Overview After BTC established a new ATH @ $28.4K, price has retraced and has hugged along the 200MAs. If the 200MAs hold, we can expect another leg up, but if it doesn't, we might have a pretty steep fall as we haven't established many levels of support on the rapid run-up. Make sure you have a strategy ready should we have a steep fall so that you won't be panicking and bottom-selling. The main level immediately significant on the charts that we want to focus on is the new All-Time-High of $28.4K, as if we fall below, we might be in free-fall. We will be looking for trading opportunities at the ATH, and I've laid out two potential trade setups in detail below. Trade Recap Yesterday we had a 'very high risk' trade, taking a long on a retest and continuation setup where BTC moved down to test the 200MAs and successfully bounced up. The trade was a sucess and gave us a 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio (profit of 3BTC for 1BTC risk). Long Trade Setup: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $28.4K with force, creating space between the price and $28.4K, falls back down to $28.4K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar , or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar , or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Short Trade Setup: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $28.4K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $28.4K and then rapidly falls below $28.4K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $28.4K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $28.4K) 2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two 2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks 3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green) Entry Confirmations: Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. Trade Management: I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME! DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. Please let me know how I can improve these daily posts / what you would like me to include in these daily posts, thanks.
by cryptotraderog
5