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Bitcointrading

Bitcoin Following 2013-2017 Fractal UPDATE 2We can see from the chart above that PA has now fallen below the Fractal for the first time since July 2023 This is itself was expected as we can see from previous posts on this Idea PA was overbought and so HAS to cool off However, we have targets as to when PA may try and recover. initially, the circle in End of May was my expected "turn around" point Things have progressed faster and so now, we have possibilities opening up for a move higher, sooner, maybe around end of April 2925 However until the weekly MACD is on Neutral, these would be short lived - hopefully. For a sustainable move higher, PA needs to have the ability to maintain the push the Weekly MACD shown above needs till end of April before any significant move can be maintained. PA has bounced of Neutral previously. But MACD can , obviously, Drop below this point, wait till May, or later, and move then. For me, the line of the arrow higher is becoming the more realistic ideal path But the longer we wait, the Steeper the rise has to be to maintain the idea of Cycle ATH in Q4, as per cycle trends. And to conitnue to follow this Fractal. The Time WILL come were we break away from this Fractal but as I have been saying for years, we are still on it......many things point towards that continuing. But as I have mentioned in a post earlier today, These Trends may be changing. Bitcoin is Maturing All we can do is watch, react and learn HAVE A PLAN FOR ALL OUTCOMES but also understand, the idea of Bitcoin collapsing is becoming more and more unrealistic... The outlook is BULLISH noi matter what I expect to remain on the fractal path till Next cycle ATH Time will tell
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
BTCUSD: The Cycle won't peak before September!Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 47.334, MACD = 3198.500, ADX = 54.017) which, having kept the 1W MA50 intact as Support, suggest that this is the ideal level to buy again upon the continuation of the Bull Cycle. Despite the recent 2 month correction, the Cycle hasn't peaked and according to the Pre-Halving/ Post-Halving theory, that suggests that the time from the Cycle's Bottom to the Halving is almost identical to the time form the Halving to the Cycle's Top, we have until the end of September before the bull run is over. And that's because the range from the Cycle's Bottom to the 4th Halving was 75 weeks (525 days), which indicates that it will take around the same amount of time from the Halving before the Bull Cycle tops. See how amazingly consistent that has been on all of prior 3 Cycles. Consequently, the best strategy here would be to hold and start selling in September. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Bitcoin, interest rate effects, Macro events since 2021 - UPDATEThere is one very simple takeaway for me from this chart and that is simply that raises and Lowering of interest rates had Very little Effect on Bitcoin It is more the effect it had on other organisations and the sentiment that followed Bitcoin and the traders. For instance, From Jan 2023, when we saw Bitcoin begin its recovery, interest rates continued to rise.....and had NO effect on the Bitcoin recovery And I think this continues to this day. After the First push higher by Bitcoin in 2023, PA went into a Long range...in this time, interest rates began remaining at a static level. Bitcoin did not rise because of this. When BTC was ready, it made a push higher again, interest rates were static and remained so while BTC entered another long range in 2024 It could be said that BTC PA rose once Rates were reduced but PA leveled out again even while the next rates decision was to reduce. Bitcoin has its own agenda, it is NOT dependant on the USA to control its choices On Each range, the MACD on the weekly timef rames was OVERBOUGHT. And it is currently resetting having been overbought again. This s NOTHING to do with interest rates. MACRO events do have an impact though and we need to pay attention this this But over all, Bitcoin is GOOD, BULLISH and getting ready for its next push Have a Nice day now
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Bitcoin Rising to Fill most recent CME GAP - what then ?We have seen some pretty Good CME Gaps in recent months, a sign of volatility. And, as I have been saying, CME GAPS ALWAYS GET FILLLED the proof of that is right here, showing you the recent ones. So, eight now, we are filling a gap from Below The question is, what will we do than? Once the Gap is filled at around 86485 I would be a Very rich man if I knew for sure but as I have been saying in a few posts, I do not think PA is fully ready to berak out just yet BUT we may see a push higher to around 90K before it returns to the Low, maybe even to dip lower into the 73K zone. But, obviously, this may not happen. However, Next time you see a CME Gap, understand it WILL get Filled. If in a bull run Move, it will remain a gap till a later date, or, as we range as we are now, you can see howe this happens. The Dips are great buying opportunists Almost like the Fair Value Gaps ( FVG ) Stay safe
CME:BTC1!
by Orriginal
A possible scenario for Bitcoin over next 2 monthsI do think this has a Strong possibility of happening MARCH will close as a RED Candle and the statisical expectation is that April will close GREEN and yet there are many reasons why Bitcoin Cannot rise a lot in April to make that Green SO, We may see March drop down to the 74K area to end the month This Gives PA the ability to Rise, hit that trend line and still Close the month GREEN and then take off in May. Why May ? Because that descending trend line perfectly matches the Weekly MACD decent and the date is when MACD reaches Neutral. Begining of May. This is also why PA will likely be rejected from the Trend line before MAY Should PA remain where it is now, it doesn't give a lot of room for April to close Green. This really is just an Idea so we just need to see if it happens. I do have a SPOt buy order sitting at 74779 just in case lol
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
$9.4M Bitcoin Short Squeeze and its Market ImplicationsThe volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market is a well-established fact, but the sheer scale of some trades can still send ripples across the entire ecosystem. Recently, a Bitcoin whale executed a masterful maneuver, closing a $516 million short position with a staggering 40x leverage, pocketing a cool $9.4 million profit in just eight days. This event, occurring shortly after a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, highlights the intricate interplay between macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment, and the strategic actions of large players. The whale's decision to close the short position immediately following the CPI release is particularly noteworthy. The lower-than-expected inflation figure signaled a potential easing of monetary inflation concerns, a development that is generally viewed favorably by Bitcoin investors. This optimistic signal likely triggered a shift in market sentiment, prompting the whale to capitalize on the impending price surge. The use of 40x leverage amplified both the potential gains and the risks associated with the trade. While it allowed the whale to generate a substantial profit in a short period, it also exposed them to significant losses if the market had moved against their position. This high-risk, high-reward strategy is characteristic of whale activity, where large players leverage their capital and market insights to execute impactful trades. The timing of the trade also underscores the importance of macroeconomic indicators in shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory. The CPI reading, a key measure of inflation, directly influences monetary policy decisions by central banks. Lower inflation can lead to a more dovish stance, potentially resulting in lower interest rates and increased liquidity, both of which are conducive to asset price appreciation, including Bitcoin. Interestingly, Tuesday has emerged as Bitcoin's most volatile day in 2025.2 This heightened volatility can be attributed to the release of key economic data, including the CPI, as well as the influence of global economic trends. Market participants anticipate increased activity on Tuesdays, making it a crucial day for traders and investors to monitor market developments. Despite the recent correction, Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains a subject of intense debate. While some analysts believe the bull run is over, citing on-chain metrics and expecting up to 12 months of bearish or sideways price action, others maintain a more optimistic perspective, predicting a potential rally to over $200,000. The recent whale trade, coupled with the resumption of Bitcoin accumulation after three months of distribution, suggests that underlying demand for Bitcoin remains strong.3 This accumulation, particularly by long-term holders, can act as a stabilizing force, mitigating the impact of short-term price fluctuations.4 The "Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: BTC Eyes Breakout, But Sellers Still In Control" sentiment accurately reflects the current market dynamics. While the potential for a breakout remains, the presence of significant selling pressure cannot be ignored. The interplay between bullish and bearish forces will continue to shape Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months. The notion that the "Bitcoin bull cycle is over" is supported by some on-chain data, which can reveal information about investor behavior and market trends. However, interpreting on-chain metrics requires a nuanced understanding of the underlying data and its limitations. While these metrics can provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Bitcoin's resilience in the face of market corrections is a testament to its growing adoption and acceptance as a mainstream asset. Despite the current correction, the cryptocurrency's ability to outperform global assets post-Trump election further reinforces its potential as a long-term investment. The whale's $9.4 million profit is a reminder of the potential for substantial gains in the cryptocurrency market. However, it also highlights the inherent risks associated with high-leverage trading. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before engaging in such strategies. In conclusion, the Bitcoin whale's strategic short squeeze and the subsequent market reactions underscore the complex interplay of factors influencing Bitcoin's price. Macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment, and the actions of large players all contribute to the cryptocurrency's volatile nature.5 While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the resumption of Bitcoin accumulation and the potential for a breakout suggest that the market is far from stagnant. Investors should remain vigilant, closely monitoring market developments and adapting their strategies accordingly. The story of the whale's successful trade is a potent reminder of the fortunes that can be made, and lost, in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTCUSD: This isn't the Top by any meansBitcoin remains slightly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.137, MACD = -3097.700, ADX = 33.471) as even though it appears its trading on a macro bottom, just over the 1W MA50 (1W RSI = 45.068), it hasn't broken out yet. The market undoubtedly took a psychological hit with February's drop but despite the voices calling for a new bear market, we are here to show you why this Cycle hasn't topped yet and is still far from doing so. This metric measures BTC's temporary stops/ tops during a Bull Cycle. It is a Halving-to-Halving method, starting on the most recent Halving and ending on the next one. Stop 1 is where the starting Halving takes place and the market pulls back. Stop 2 is the next pullback on the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. The 0.382 Fib prices Stop 3 and basically the Cycle Top. This has been happening on both previous Cycles exactly as described and on the 2012-14 Cycle it just had to be adjusted a little before the 1st Halving due to the Cycle being much shorter since it was the earliest. Nevertheless, it fits the Stop points perfectly. Note also that distance from the Halving (Stop 1) to Stop 3 has always been 76/78 weeks. This suggests the we can have a new Cycle Top by October 20th 2025 the latest. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Bitcoin Index-3 Strength index. Tells us what ? Bull Or Bear ?This post will include the same chart as a Month, Weekly, Daily and 4 hour The 3 indicators are RSI - RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price TSI - The True Strength Index indicator is a momentum oscillator designed to detect, confirm or visualize the strength of a trend. - the True Strength Index (TSI) does show trend direction. ADX - the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows the strength of a market trend, NOT its direction. The base line is 25 - Above is strong trned, below is weaker trend ADX is Yellow - DI + is orange ( positive price index) - DI - is Red ( Negative price index MONTHLY The main chart is the monthly chart - the vertical lines Mark Years Note how ATH's are all Above the Rising upper trend line. From the Left, 2013 ATH - Note how RSI and TSI both peaked BEFORE ATH, as did the DI+ on the ADX indicator. The ADX itself turned down Later 2017 ATH saw a similar pattern 2021 was slightly different. RSI and TSI peaked on the March ATH but the true cycle ATH was in Q4 ( Nov) , as are most BTC Cycle ATH - Note the sudden drops in both ( probably due to deleveraged) The DI+ on the ADX did the same but note how the ADX itself peaked in NOV - The ADX seemingly being more accurate on showing us Cycle Top by Trend. Currently, The RSI has not entered Fully OVERBOUGHT as in previous cycles. Has Fallen below Overbought entry line in recent weeks. Maybe leveling out TSI ( orange) is falling since Jan, showing a bearish trend - Falling towards its own average.. PA has been falling in this time. ADX has also slowed and flatten out, showing a weakening of trend. NOTE - ADX does not show us Trend direction...So, in recent months, we have seen a DROP in PA. Weakening of this trend could be pointing towards a reversal ? Also look at the orange DI+ line in ADX....It is getting Lower on each ATH, harder to move higher as Price increase makes BTC harder to move THE WEEKLY begins to show us more info This starts to get interesting here Note that in 2021, It was as we saw in the monthly Except the ADX fell after the March ATH and did not rise again untill half way through 2021 when the Bear Kicked in Fully. The ADX here is showing the strength of that Bear Market as Luna, FTX and 3 arrows collapsed. The RSI and TSI remained flat Till Jan 2023, when we saw PA beginning to recover. Notice I said RECOVER. I said it at the time and I say it again..Jan 2023 till September was recovery from avery deep Bear market. This is backed up by the fact that the ADX remained Flat untill Late August 2023. Showed No TREND Then we saw ADX rise, TSI rise off Neutral and RSI begin to head towards Overbought. All 3 then Dipped in Mid 2024, Rose again to End of 2024 and since then, we have seen the RSI and TSI drop below their averages, head to Neutral ADX continied to rise as DI+ Dropped, showing us this was a Bearish Trend after all. However, since beginning of March, the ADX has been showing a weakening of this trend. Still Bearish as the rise in DI - shows, but it is getting weaker. DAILY begins to show us what could be heading for a new trend, maybe BTC PA dropped since Feb as did the RSI and TSI, though they have recently stopped doing that and have tried to bounce but still remain below Neutral. The reason for this is shown in the ADX that has continued to rise untill March, Keeping that Bearish trend Active and strong. This is confirmed by the DI - ( red ) being above the DI + Even though this trend has weakened, DI + remains flat showing that a change in trend does not appear to be happening to quickly. Note how the ADX has turned and is beginning to rise higher as the TSI and RSI flatten out Hpwever. DI - also remain flat. Change could be near. It is not happening yet but...... The 4 hour chart is full of Noise but given whet we just seen, it may be relevant to see it It is Volatile but we can see on BTC PA how PA slowed its drop from March and has ranged with a reducing high Low. We can see how the RSI and TSI rose, dipped and Rose to their current positions near Neutral. We can see on the ADX, in the centre , was the Last Bearish push, BTC PA Dropped sharply but the trend weakened quickly. the Bears are getting tired. We see the attempt by the BULLS around the 11 march to push PA higher. This failed..but showed us the bulls are still here. The Fact that the ADX is below the DI lines is a sign that a Trend no longer exists or is very weak The previous Bearish Trend is possibly exhausted. We have signs that Price recovery is possible from here though I think we will wait a bit longer before we see it. My conclusion is that we maybe seeing the beginning of a change , a reversal, but it may take a little while before we see the Fruits fully. Possibly up to 5 - 6 weeks or more. The shorter term data shows we could make a push to top of range ( or near) but that could get rejected.. We need more strength for the long term But I suggest you read this, look at these charts and make up your own mind. Because they are hard to read in many ways, Trends can spring up any time, in any direction. We can only look at them and think.. I wish you well
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
BTCUSD: TSI shows that this is the LAST BEST BUYBitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.997, MACD = 3171.400, ADX = 55.280) as it found support on the 1W MA50 last 3 weeks and is trying to capitalize on this with a bullish reaction. The rebound is closer than ever and in our opinion based on the True Strength Index (TSI), this may be the last best buy opportunity of this Cycle before it tops. The 1W TSI is now on its long term Buy Zone, last time it was there was on the August 5th 2024 bottom. The TSI basically marks bottoms and tops on the last 3 Cycles in particular. More specifically, it makes 5 tops in total, every time it approaches 1.00, it is a signal to sell and wait for it to approach -1.00. We are now as mentioned the closest we've been to -1.00 in 7 months and we came here from Top 4. The Cycle technically has one more Top (5) to give so practically the current levels are the last best buy opportunity of the Cycle. From top-to-bottom, the 2014-2017 Cycle lasted 1470 days, the next one (2018-2021) 1430 days, so if there is a declining rate of 40 days on each passing Cycle, we can start expecting a new Cycle Top by September 2025. The price can be at least 130k be then. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
10
Bitcoin BEARISH chart - Some reasons to remain AlertAs I have said many times, I always look to Both sides. Bullish and Bearish. This way, I manage to always know what I am going to do should a Market Direction change. I got caught out once before..NEVER AGAIN So, While so many, including Me, look towards Further gains in 2025, there are some indications that A TOP has already been reached. There is NO guarantee that another will come in. The First Clue to a change towards BEARISH is in the main chart. PA got rejected off the very same Trend line that rejected PA in 2017 and 2021, on all occasions, pushing PA into a Bearish Drop. That alone should make you Think hard. Next, we have the NUPL chart ( NET UNREALISED~ED PROFIT LOSS ) The Arrow points towards the line, that once crossed has shown us that the high possible Profits available begin to Tempt traders to lock in profit..to SELL. Once above this line, the next line has NEVER been crossed. ALL profit taking occurs in this Zone. You Will also notice how in 2021, when we had 2 tops, the NUPL reached High, Twice and then fell as traders Took the profits. We have just had 2 tops and have just dropped out of the profit taking Range. We may return, we may not. We have to wait but all the while, understanding the more profit taken now, people who buy at current price ranges will have to wait Longer to claim this same level of profit, assuming that the price Rises from here....Or they are in Loss... The SOPR ( Spent Outpuit Profit Ratio ) , shows us that these profits have been taken The thing to see here is the level of Selling, or taking of profit. The SOPR line is down near Neutral, This shows the Selling has Stopped. if we look back at the previous chart, we see that the level of profit is dropping. Less reason to sell....and while PA Drops as it is, there is even more possible LOSS incurred. The people who bought the Top are now getting worried. Also notice the "labels" Top ( Bearish signals) and Bottom ( Bullish signals) We had a Bearish warning around 6 weeks before current Top. The Bullish signal on the bottom line Stopped about 4 weeks ago and you will notice how the "line" has dropped below the neutral line, indicating people accepting Losses, just to get out.... Again, this does not mean we will continue Lower but it is a Loud Warning Bell Fot the Level pf profit to return, we need one of Two things, or Both, to happen 1) Price to Drop so we can Buy Low and wait for PA to rise again and so make profit 2) Buy now. ( Buy the Dip ) and Wait and Hope the Market goes to the prices some people say will happen ( Some are Stupid for this cycle BTW ) The MVRV chart helps us see where that Market is heading. MVRV = Market Value to Realized Value. It is an indicator used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued I am not going to get to techie here but that yellow line is called Z Score and we are in ATH territory when it is above the green MVRV, as can be seen in the chart We are currently Dropping FAST and Z Score is very slightly BELOW the MVRV line. This happened in Summer 2024 and we recovered as you can see. This Means Bitcoin is becoming Less Overvalued but a Long way from Undervalued What I see here more than anything is how the recent High was up on that line where the 2021 ATH was rejected from. It was the same level of Value that made people say, "OK, This is great, I am out" and Sell. Again, understand, the higher the BTC price goes, the heavier it is to move. We may not manage to get a Bitcoin Way up where that 1st 2021 ATH was. Hugely over Valued. THIS is what I am watching more than anything So, are we in a Bear Market ? NO - But it would be easy to fall into a Mini Bear here, or longer one, if the market does not recover by mid June Latest Why ? Because, as ever, for me, The weekly MACD is the -- THE thing to watch If that MACD drops below neutral when it arrives at Neutral, That is a Big red Flag.... But , in an ideal world, we should be able to understand the possibility of that happening BEFORE it does. The charts above help with that - How mush profit is available, is it being Taken, what potential for more March as a monthly candle, is very likely to close RED, as mentioned in other posts, It is APRIL that will really decide where we go next. It needs to be GREEN, even if only marginally. My decision point is if the MVRV continues to Fall past that 236 fib line.....and stays below Then the MACD and SOPR If Capitulation begins - I BUY MORE - at the Bottom ( possibly around 65K - But I do not expect hat this year...... Bear Markets are not all bad.................... Have AI sold any Bitcoin Yet ? NO - thankfully, I still hold enough profit on my earlier buys to cover the smaller losses I may make while I begin to buy again now, which I am doing, in small quanties...Just incase we move higher soon..Because, as I said before, I look to both sides....and I am more Bullish than Bearish right now.....But open to change. I hope you all understand this logic
by Orriginal
Bitcoin 50 SMA time snaps and Low to ATH since 2014 - UPDATEIn a similar vein to the chart posted earlier today about the patterns between the 50 and 100 SMA, this post is using the 50 SMA ( RED) and the time spent above and below PA. Alongside this, we have the day counts for PA LOW to PA ATH since 2014 After 2013 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 399 days below PA After 2017 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 329 days below PA After 2021 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 420 days below PA - This is an impressive stat as it includes the Deep Bear that we experienced after the Luna, 3 Arrows & FTX crashes, includes the raising of interest rates and the utter presecution by Banks and SEX in the USa. The fact that the drop below PA was only extended by 35 days ( average) Max shows a strength in Bitcoin sentiment. It could NOT be broken In 2015, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 938 days In 2019, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 1001 days In 2023, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, we have been above for 756 days of an expected average projection of 966 days This projects that PA will Drop Below the 50 SMA in about October 2015, After the ATH as previously. This points towards an ATH in Q4 - this has some confluence with the previous post though open to suggestion. Next is the simple PA LOW to ATH and Back to LOW day counts 2013 ATH to Cycle Low was 665 days then 847 days to Cycle ATH 2017 ATH to Cycle Low was 350 days then 1064 days to Cycle ATH 2021 ATH to Cycle Low was 378 days then, using the average of the two previous day Count from Low to ATH, gives us 952 days to Cycle ATH This puts an ATH in JUNE 2025 ! I do not think this is realistic in anyway however, Anything is possible currently. I do however think that June is about when PA could seriously begin to make Moves higher, with intent to reach a Cycle ATH. The reason being, the weekly MACD will have reached Neutral by then ( if not in mid May ) So while this chart offers some confluence to other ideas, it also offers another ATH date that is way earlier than any previous cycle ATH - While I feel this is unlikely to happen, we Must keep open minds.. the adoption of BTC by main stream now may well accelerate the PA cycle. We shall wait and find out. Be prepared for ALL occasions....including the arrival of an early Bear. - THAT will be in another post, at some point soon Stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
BTCUSD: Phase 4 of Bull Cycle just started.Bitcoin is about to turn neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.562, MACD = -3343.000, ADX = 34.423) as it is making a big 1W comeback on this week's candle following a nearly perfect touch of the 1W MA50. Every test of the 1W MA50, as well as every test of the S1 1W RSI level, has been a straight buy opportunity inside the Bull Cycle's Channel Up since the very begining of the November 2022 bottom. As first the price action was concentrated on the lower half of the Channel Up (green zone) but since February 2024 it has been primarily on the upper half (blue zone) as the rallies got more aggressive, with the only exceptions being the 1W MA50 tests such as the current one (green Arcs). Every bottom rebound has increased by at least +98.76%, so that gives us a peak estimate of TP = 150,000. An temprary high around 120k and pullback to 100-90k is a possible scenario based on all previous rallies/ Phases. Phase 4, which should technicall be the final of the Bull Cycle, has just started. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
BTCUSD: Last 1W MA50 rebound to the top of the CycleBitcoin remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.004, MACD = -3484.800, ADX = 36.461) but today we see the first recovery attempt. The technical reasoning behind it is that the market is testing its 1W MA50 and in due time it will price the new HL of the Bull Cycle and form the bottom that will hold for the rest of the year until the cycle's very top. This is no different than the last two Cycles, the 1W RSI is even rebounding on its S1 level. Based on that pattern we are looking at a potential Cycle peak between 150k - 200k. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Crypto summit disappoints, Bitcoin teeters on support Bitcoin surged on March 3 after Donald Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve, only to erase gains following erratic tariff announcements the following days. Friday’s White House crypto summit, expected to be a turning point, fell flat. Trump met with top crypto executives, promising to ease Biden-era regulations, but offered only vague commitments. Instead of rallying, the market has declined further. A silver lining for Bitcoin came with Friday’s weak jobs report, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve intervention. Historically, Bitcoin benefits when interest rates fall. Although this is yet to be reflected in the price. Technically, BTC/USD is testing the first support on the pitchfork indicator, with the money flow index suggesting no buying pressure at the moment. A drop below Monday’s low of $81,620 could invalidate any bullish outlook.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
march rally coming for bitcoin BTCUSD BTC!Bitcoin's price action is also influenced by broader financial cycles and patterns that are more subtle. Here's a look at those: General Financial Cycles: Market Sentiment Cycles: Like all financial markets, Bitcoin experiences cycles of fear and greed. These psychological waves drive price fluctuations, with periods of euphoria leading to overbought conditions and subsequent corrections. These cycles are often amplified in the cryptocurrency market due to its 24/7 nature and the prevalence of social media. Economic Cycles: Bitcoin's performance can be influenced by macroeconomic trends, such as inflation, interest rates, and global economic growth. In times of economic uncertainty, some investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional assets. Conversely, during periods of strong economic growth, capital may flow into more traditional investments. Adoption Cycles: Bitcoin's adoption by individuals and institutions follows a pattern of gradual growth, punctuated by periods of rapid acceleration. As adoption increases, liquidity improves, and the market becomes more mature, which can influence price volatility and long-term trends. "Secret" or Less Obvious Bitcoin Cycles: On-Chain Data Cycles: Analysis of Bitcoin's blockchain data reveals patterns in investor behavior, such as accumulation and distribution phases. Metrics like: Hodl waves: which track the age of bitcoin held in wallets. Entity adjusted dormancy: which shows when older coins are being moved. These can give indications of underlying cycle activity. Liquidity Cycles: The flow of liquidity into and out of the Bitcoin market can create its own cycles. Periods of high liquidity can fuel price increases, while periods of low liquidity can exacerbate price declines. The availability of stablecoins, and the actions of large market makers, effect these cycles. Technological Adoption Cycles: The development and adoption of layer 2 solutions, and other technological improvements to the bitcoin network, can create their own cyclical impacts on the bitcoin price. These cycles are less predictable, but can have profound long term effects. It's important to understand that these cycles are interconnected and can overlap, making it challenging to isolate their individual effects. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market is still relatively young, and its cycles may evolve over time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
BTC Bullish Continuation (Another Top OR New Prominent High?)BTC price seems to exhibit signs of overall bullish continuation as the price action may form a credible Higher Low on key Fibonacci and Support levels. There might be a possibility that BTC may break it's All Time High Price of 109588. It might be worth observing price the action further if 109588 breaks. A potential break may be indicative of another top OR new prominent high (if the range considerably breaks). Trade Plan : Entry @ 97389.73 Stop Loss @ 87000 TP 1 @ 107779.46 (Before All Time High) TP 1.5 - 2 @ 112975 - 118169.19 (After All Time High) Ride Further with Caution if TP1 hits and move Stop Loss to Break Even if TP1 hits as well.
Long
by LevelsBySBT
BTCUSD: Bottom formed. Road to $150k started.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.811, MACD = -265.000, ADX = 36.155) as it recovered some losses from last week. The most important outcome is that both last week and so far the current one, the 1W candle entered the long term Support Zone comprised of the 1W MA25/MA50 and rebounded over it. This is the Zone that has produced all HL bottoms of the 2 year Channel Up. As the 1W RSI is also about to enter its multiyear Buy Zone, we expect the bottom to be formed within 4-6 weeks max and then start the standard +97.97% rally it printed on all three prior bullish waves. The trade is long, TP = 150,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
BTCUSD: Historic comparison shows hyper rally about to begin.Bitcoin turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.581, MACD = 979.600, ADX = 19.348) as it recovered last week's selloff and rebounded on its 1D MA200. Technically the pattern since 2024 is identical to 2020 as you can see on the chart above. The moment Bitcoin crossed again above its 1D MA50, a new hyper rally started. This suggests that a final target inside the 160,000 - 200,000 Zone is quite possible to take place. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Bitcoin Halving to ATH data -2 year UPDATE-conflicting results I havw Noticed in recent days, people "Boosting" A chart I posted in Dec 2022, called "BITCOIN Halving cycles and Pump %" So I thought I would update it and see where we are now. In it, i said 2024 would be a Good year. Well, we got that in many ways and not surprisingly but we have seen some things that point towards this being a VERY different cycle and I will explain some of them here So, as the title suggests, Lets Look at the Halving to ATH - For a start, I need to explain the issue we have with 2021 - 2 major ATH and a divided community about which one was the REAL ATH and so on. There are plenty of reasons to accept the NOV 2021 ATH as the real one, mostly because it was the highest price ! It was also a similar day count from previous Halving to ATH and so I am working with that. The Current Bitcoin ATH was 280 days after Halving. A Lot Less than any previous day count from Halving to ATH.. We are however, still under the 365 count we had in 2012 Halving to ATH - So...for me, the possibility that we have NOT seen Cycle ATH still exists for many reasons.. And yet, at the same time, I am Very aware that this Cycle has seen accelerated adoption because of ETF's etc,,,,,,so, please Keep an open mind. Using the day Count system and the Nov 2021 day count, we could expect this Cycle ATH around Oct 2025 - probably safer to say Q4 But how High ? The % rise from ATH to ATH is an interesting topic here. 2012 to 2017 ATH saw a 1144.6% Rise in PA 2017 to 2021 ATH ( Nov ) saw a 326,3% rise in PA - This is 3.5 X SMALLER than the previous Rise. Using that 3.5 Smaller calculation, that gives us an % rise of 92.4% and an ATH of around 121K for this cycle. Kind of contradicts expectations and this alone could point towards that fact we may have already be near reacheing cycle Top ! (I have posted a Far more detailed chart about this and will be updating it soon) BUT, the Crunch comes when we look at the Halving to ATH, as mentioned in the title I wrote in Dec 2022 2012 Halving 10K% rise after 2016 Halving 3,5K% rise after 2020 Halving 700 % rise after Projected PA in 2024 /5 would also be 700% BUT, Bitcoin is far more public now and the Halving Pumps will be talked about aLot. Could the Next halving actually be pumped a Lot earlier than previous dates We got earlier Pumps due to ETF expectations, as can be seen by how far of the Curve PA rose in 2024 - This has completely changed how strong PA was at Halving and how Much further it could rise. In facr, if you look back over previous Halvings, PA has been FLAT by comparison. And so, Since the Bitcoin Halving in March 2024, to the current ATH, we have only seen a 62.8% Rise If PA Had been on the Curve in the chart at the halving date, we would have seen a 397.8% eise to the current ATH This Highlights a Massive change in how PA is rising But, at the same time, We would still most likely be in the Range we are now in. And Lastly, I want to show you this I mentioned in Dec 2022 how Bitcoin PA could expect a 700% Rise in Price from Halving to cycle ATH I was WRONG From Where PA was at Halving to the Expected ATH mark on Rising trend line, it will be 651% rise and around 500K So, in conclusion, despite a massive change in how PA approached Halving and how Shallow the rise in PA has been compared to previous cycles after Halving, we are Still in a VERY Good place. However, if you Look at just the ATH to ATH dats calculation, we may already he near TOP.... Take you pick - For Me, I am holding out for Q4 but I have safe guards in place should it turn out we have peaked early. But do remember, this is a Projection..No guarantees......But we can hope Stay safe and Love your Neighbour
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN UPDATE TODAYHere's the latest update on Bitcoin: Current Price The current price of Bitcoin is around $83,780.61, with a daily high of $93,721.37 and a daily low of $82,464.84 . Market Trends Bitcoin's price surged 10% after President Trump's Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement, with some analysts predicting a potential breakout past $100,000 ². However, others warn that the rally may be temporary due to regulatory hurdles. Key Levels - Resistance: $90,000 - $100,000 - Support: $80,000 - $83,000 News President Trump's executive order established a Crypto Strategic Reserve, which will initially include Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) . This move is seen as a positive development for the cryptocurrency market.
by GrowCryptoUpdate