Bitcointrading
Bitcoin: They see me rollin’… down 😎The virtual coins are rolling untypically smoothly these days. Neither bulls nor bears seem to be too interested in catching them. However, we expect some new movement soon. The price could go up into the lower half of the magenta colored area between $55296 and $65870. Somewhere in there, it should change its mind and fall down below the support line at $41634. At this point, further downward movement is very likely.
Then again, Bitcoin could also decide to break through the magenta-zone, aiming for the support line at $68958. Once it has hit this mark, there is a 20% chance that it might rise further still.
The simple BTC trading ideaGM, everyone.
Unfortunately, BTC is starting to look ugly. Bulls are failing to reverse the trend (clearly bearish since 69k). They begin to look tired, and to my eyes, the failure to gain momentum on the bounce yesterday and keep the price above the 46800 is the proof. Nevertheless, we do not panic.
Right now, as I explained well in the last week, I am looking at the two major levels, 52k and 45450.
I won't sugar coat you the pill, and if we close below the 45450, we will likely see 40 k.
Despite this bearishness, if bulls can fight back significantly and bring volume in, BTC will likely complete an Adam and Eve bullish pattern, which is again played only on the breakout or retest. I talked about this pattern in a previous post.
So now keep an eye on the critical level 45450 and short a close below that level. If the price temporarily closes below the level and re-enter the price range above 45450, you should exit the trade immediately, risk management.
Now, if you ask me, I am long since 45700 with a stop loss at 45000. Why? I am playing support and resistance, buying on support (45450) and selling on-resistance (52k). If any of these levels are violated, I will automatically switch strategy and follow the trend...becoming Perma bear or Perma bull will only damage your pockets...a trader has to be able to change quickly to adapt to the market. This is excellent news for retail traders that play with relatively small capital as the orders are easy to be filled. Imagine an institution that has billion. How hard it must be for them to play it right.
So eyes open and be ready for anything.
Is it an inverted cup and handle?It seems like an inverted cup and handle to me. If it breaks the one-month support, it can go to the targeted area.
Please, do not trade based on my idea. It’s just a perspective. But please share your thoughts in the comments.
Happy trading
BTC trditional approachHello Everyone,
Yesterday I posted the Elliott Wave analysis, and Today I decided to give you a more traditional view. They complement each other, and they should be used together. Elliott Wave has far better long-term and short-term forecasting power, and the traditional is excellent to confirm The Elliott Wave prediction or debunk it. So they should always be used together.
I tried to label each of the visual indicators in the chart to help you understand.
BTC is trading in a rectangle pattern short term, and this gives a specific target both ways up or down in case of a breakout. The targets are 58500 in case of upwards breakout and 39500 in case of downwards breakout.
Either way, you should be able to profit from this move (up/down) in the futures market.
There are a few different resistances that are pressing BTC downwards. However, strong supports hold BTC with the 52 Week VWMA and different VWAP. Nevertheless, if we look at the 52 weeks simple MA (48100), BTC has now closed below, so you should all be on alert mode. BTC must reclaim the 52 week SMA as many traders pay attention to it.
Another indicator that I believe is important to track right now is the Stoch RSI
. Although many doubt its use, many retail traders trade using only the Stoch RSI, which gives the indicators strong validity. BTC has reset on the daily frame; however, it is starting to turn bullish, but the price is struggling to follow. This will be bearish if the Stoch RSI reaches overbought conditions and BTC won't move and reclaim the 48k level strongly.
Nevertheless, I am bullish right now. I expect BTC to retest 45500 in the first part of the week to finally bounce and head to 52k.
As I have shown in my previous charts, I doubt a capitulation event at this point, and I am expecting BTC to reach 58k in the next few weeks.
Why?
- Bullish engulfing on the weekly timeframe and a bullish cross of the Stoch RSI
- Oversold
- Elliott wave most probable scenario, in my view, is an ascending triangle (Bounce from this level)
- Confluence of Long-term strong supports
- Confluence of different resistances turned support (retest)
- Break and retest of the diagonal trendline resistance weakening bearish momentum
- Higher High and Higher Low structure NOT invalidate yet signalling an uptrend
In conclusion, I am still expecting a bounce from here starting from the middle of this week. However, I would like to stress that the macro conditions are very confusional right now (I never trade on the news, and I do not pay attention to them usually) with the dollar strengthening due to the anticipated interest rates and announced by Powell. 2022 should have a deflationary bias, making it very hard for risky assets to start a raging bull run. However, history also shows that no market condition is equal, and what happens in one deflationary market do not repeat in the next one. This can be appreciated from different historical charts in which DJI commodities have rallied and plunged during similar conditions during different periods, so no market condition is equal. That is why I stick to Technical Analysis and avoid listening to the news. FA and TA need to be looked at together but remember price action will always be king whether FA supports it or not, so follow the price and not the word of mouths.
2022 will be interesting, and many will reason the market with the different markets conditions and bla bla the reality is that if you follow the price, you win. Reasoning comes later when action has already happened, often as an excuse.
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Bitcoin intraday analysis, see price action at these levelsThis is a Bitcoin intraday analysis,
Let's wait to see price action at these levels.
BTCUSD could test these supply zones after it was tested lower zone last Saturday.
If you find the article useful or interesting,
Let's comment below !
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🔰 Attention about this Bitcoin analysis
This is my personal idea and analysis only.
Let's see it as an example or a reference.
You also need your own analysis as well and manage risks.
BTC Elliott Wave current countingHello Everyone,
Today I decided to present you my most probable Elliott Wave counting.
Although Elliott Wave can be a potent tool that can make you profitable if used wisely, sometimes there could be a margin of interpretation from the trader, resulting in painful mistakes.
When analysing a chart using Elliott Wave, there are instances where the counting is crystal clear, so there is very little subjectivity to it and others where the counting is foggy and doubtful.
The best way to use the Elliott wave is to have 2-3 possible counting, with one being the preferred one and the second and 3rd on the pipeline if the preferred one fail.
Nevertheless, a trader must constantly update his wave counting to account for "unexpected" market turns.
Here I present you my two most possible scenarios, with the third one laid out in the following description.
In the short term, sometimes it can be easy to catch market turns and trade with the trend especially using candlesticks and basic horizontal resistance and support zones. However, when trying to forecast precisely the market for the next year, things can get a bit more complicated.
Now to contextualise BTC: As I explained for the whole of 2021, BTC has completed the primary 3rd wave, and we are now either still in the 4th wave (correction) or in the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. In my opinion, there is no doubt BTC will be soon starting its way up to 100k, with my final target at 185 - 190k. Now consider this, let's look at the possible scenarios here presented:
SCENARIO 1:
In this scenario, I have kept my original idea that back in May, BTC concluded a violent zigzag correction setting the end of wave 4 and starting wave 5 back in July. This one was my preferred wave counting, and it is still valid to a certain degree. However, things got complicated with the last correction. BTC failed to hold above the previous main high, entering the price area of intermediate wave 1. One of the main rules of Elliott wave is "wave 4 never enter the price area of wave 1 unless in a diagonal triangle". I do not think this one was wave 4 of primary wave 5. I believe (considering this scenario) that we are in wave 2 of intermediate wave 3 of primary wave 5. To make it simple, BTC is in the correction before the most aggressive impulse wave (wave 3), which will bring BTC to 104k in the short term (1-2 months). As you can appreciate from the chart, I believe the wave count fits this idea well with this retracement. This scenario considers the last wave up an extended wave 1 with wave 2 retracing to the 0.786 of wave 1. This is very much possible. However, what makes me sceptical is this retracement entering the price of the previous intermediate wave 1 (July till September impulse wave).
Considering this scenario, BTC is now bottoming out and will start a very aggressive wave 3 soon, with the final target at 130k (perfectly fitting the main primary cycle idea).
Although this was my preferred scenario, I consider now this a possible scenario placing this idea as the second most likely wave count.
SCENARIO 2:
This is my preferred count right now. As previously explained in other ideas and videos, the recent retracement was far more aggressive than expected. This has pushed the previous scenario explained back due to the price entering the price area of the previous impulsive wave. This has caused me to think that BTC is probably forming an ascending triangle. This is a very common correction pattern in wave 4 as it takes longer than a simple correction (Flat, ZigZag) and creates a solid base (accumulation) for the next strong impulse wave (Wave 5).
As it can be appreciated from the chart, triangles are formed by 5 waves which each subdivide into 3 waves (3-3-3-3-3). This fits the current price action well, especially with the recent two impulse wave being almost identical in price movement, which is typical of ZigZags correction (characteristic of a triangle).
Each wave often retraces 0.618 of the previous one. However, this differs depending on the type of triangle. In an ascending triangle, the counter-trend waves retrace 0.618; however, the waves in the trend direction extends, forming new higher highs.
Considering this scenario, BTC should start the 4th ZigZag correction bringing a new ATH. After this, there will be one last retracement 0.618 of the previous ZigZag concluding primary wave 4 and beginning a strong wave 5, which will possibly push BTC behind my 185k target.
Lastly, SCENARIO 3:
This is the less probable scenario, and as explained in other videos, it considers that BTC may be in a big expanded flat, which will push prices down to 21k. This is the less likely scenario; hence I didn't include it in the visual part of the idea.
In conclusion, the next BTC move will tell us which of the 2 main scenarios is correct.
A decisive break out of the ATH with a successful retest would validate the first scenario. Instead, a fakeout at the ATH will validate the second scenario (currently the most probable).
I hope you have been able to follow my idea.
Which of these scenarios is your pick? (Comment below either, scenario 1, scenario 2 or scenario 3)
Have a great profitable new year.
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BTC Bitcoin: Short-Term UpdateHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1H linear scale chart for Bitcoin (BTC).
The chart is self-explanatory. The Bitcoin price is moving up the short-term rising broadening wedge pattern (generally bearish) and may be met with the Ichimoku Cloud (red - bearish). The Volume came in earlier today but seems to have dropped. The RSI is moving upwards in a rising channel. The Fibonacci Retracement shows the price hovering in the 0.786 area and having trouble closing a candle body above it for now. Overall the price may have the potential to move higher with the RSI moving higher to the overbought area before a retracement.
In the ideas noted below are a few mid-term and long-term Bitcoin charts. Please review.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Bitcoin could re-test 41.5k, whenWe will have a P&F double bottom breakout when price was closed below.
Let's see BTCUSD's Point and Figure chart above!
If you find the article useful and interesting,
Let's see another precision Gold and Bitcoin trading ideas below
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🔰 Attention about this Bitcoin analysis
This is my personal idea and analysis only.
Let's see it as an example or a reference.
You also need your own analysis as well and manage risks.
Long Bitcoin buy 12/30/2021Trade Idea 12/30/2021
Bitcoin / US dollar
Buy - @ 47245.01
1st TP - 54102 = +6857
2nd TP-54238 = +6992.99
BITCOIN GOOD SIGN ?Bitcoin trying to break EMA 50, Resistance Area and Fibonacci Area 0.618. If success it will be good sign to confirm Bitcoin still on the track.
Now, Bitcoin above EMA 20, only the beginning. Just wait and see.
note: only take position after confirmation and do your own research before trading.
Bitcoin trading idea today, BTC price action analysisDo you have a Bitcoin trading idea today?
Here's a BTC price action and supply demand analysis.
BTCUSD 15m trade analysis
Price is approaching the upper supply zone in a form of compression
There may be a trap as on above Bitcoin's chart.
We also mark the spot where price reacts first, which is below the actual supply zone.
FTB is First time back.
We'll see price action and wait for confirmation in low time frame before enter our positions.
If you find the article useful and interesting,
Let's see another precision Gold, GBPJPY and Bitcoin trading ideas below
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🔰 Attention about this Bitcoin analysis
This is my personal idea and analysis only.
Let's see it as an example or a reference.
You also need your own analysis as well and manage risks.
BTC Bitcoin: Two Scenarios Coming Up Hello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for the Bitcoin (BTC).
The chart is self-explanatory. The price has two potentials from the Support and Resistance Trend Line which is in confluence with the VPVR (Volume Profile). Volume overall is low and Ichimoku Cloud shows a red cloud upcoming (resistance). Lastly, zooming out, you can see a Double Top Pattern, which is a bearish pattern. The $39K-$41K area is a very important area to keep an eye on.
Shown in the chart: Trend line, Ichimoku Cloud, Support and Resistance Line, Volume, Volume Profile, Rising Wedge Pattern, Double Top Pattern.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
BTC trendingHello Everyone,
I hope you all enjoyed the time with your families.
I apologise for being absent. I took some holidays during Christmas to spend time with my family.
Now looking at BTC...There have been few excellent opportunities to capitulate in the past days, with BTC trading in a range with 46000 and 52000 as the main boundaries of the rectangle pattern.
How do I trade the rectangle?
Depending on the momentum oscillator, I either buy on support and sell at resistance OR (safest option) wait for a break out from the resistance or support and ride the impulse wave.
I explained in the previous posts that from an Elliott Wave theory point of few there are different possible counting...either we are forming a rising triangle (my view), or this retracement was wave 1 of wave C, which will complete the expanded flat bringing us likely down to 21k (less plausible hypothesis).
Now without speculating on the medium-long term, if we look at different indicators, we can appreciate that the scale leans towards a possible retest of 57-58 k in the medium-short term.
BTC is oversold in basically all the timeframe up to the weekly frame with the stoch RSI of 4h, 12h and weekly flipping bullish.
As you can appreciate, the different Moving averages and VWAP are providing a cluster of support and resistance in this area, with the VWAP from the low (June) and the 52 Week VWMA providing strong support and the VWAP from the Low (July) and the 200 Day MA providing resistance. Considering the oscillator, we can speculate that there are higher probabilities of a break out above the 52k level regaining a bullish momentum to retest the 52k. This is clearly defining the current trading range.
If we pay attention to the weekly chart, I expect a run to 66k starting soon. However, I am waiting for the price to confirm before committing.
If we apply some volume analysis, it is clear that BTC has been ranging for the last year (Accumulation) between 29k and 70k. The volume presents different interesting characteristics, with volume reaching a climax at the bottom in May and drying throughout June - July, which is a significant reversal sign as sellers have been dissipated. The bounce started with some volume but quickly drying suggesting this to be a wave B (phoney) due to the lack of volume strength backing the price action. Similarly, the volume has not increased violently on wave C down which suggests that this is not the start of a multi-year Bear market but only a wave part of a correction.
Considering this, I expect another 2 waves in the medium term, carrying us to February. One wave to retest the 69k and another wave down correcting this bounce which will sign the end of the correction and the start of the last bull run before the bear market.
Lastly, looking at BTC, there is a possible price pattern formation on this support.
Either double bottom or Adam and eve, depending on the steepness of this bounce, either wave this should unfold in a significant bounce to 57k.
To conclude, always remember that each of us has strategies and Bias. The most important part of a trade is the Stop Loss. This protects your capital from unexpected moves and your mistakes. No trader is always right, so cover your asses with a stop loss, better be safe than sorry.
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Bitcoin update. Still in no-trade zone. Waiting for the bottom.This is a quick Bitcoin update video. In summary, I explain why I'm waiting before initiating any trade and what I'm waiting for. I'm waiting for a clear bottom either through touching one of my support lines or by making a huge candle with a big wick below it. Where the wick will end up, no one knows. Some people estimate 44k. Some estimate 40k. Some estimate 29k. Eitherway, it will liquidate many leveraged longs and allow Bitcoin to soar freely afterwards.
BTC Bitcoin: Inside The Rising Wedge Hello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ), a cryptocurrency.
The chart is self-explanatory. The overall pattern is a Rising Wedge, but the price may still have potential to get back to the top of the pattern before it has a major drop.
Additionally Shown: Ichimoku Clouds, RSI (relative strength index), Support and Resistance Trendline, and Volume
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
As the year is coming to an end and holidays are almost here. I want to wish my friends Happy Holidays and ready for an exciting 2022! What are your thoughts for the coming year?
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Bitcoin Quick Update No-tradeQuick update on Bitcoin. Stop loss is hit. Recent support is broken. We are in a no-trade zone until we touch $44700 or we see bullish reversal.
Is Bitcoin Getting Ready To Hit 75 Or Rekt To 28K? Bitcoin is currently trading at $50,806.56 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of $28,256,215,743 USD. (22-12-2021)
50, 51 & 52 ZONE Is extremely critical - will either take us down if failed to break 51 up or shoot to NorthPole if break 51,52 - we could see 75k before or by 31st December 2021
Guys, either way... you are in for a threat if you trade smart.
Bitcoin going strong! OOO NOT!Greetings from Amsterdam,
Here a fresh update from the markets..
Zoom out and see the bigger picture.. Well that is quite simple; TRADING RANGE... Never forget the cycle of price in price action is;
TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE --> TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE.. Repeat over and over..
What do i see from a price action standpoint?? Strong bearish candles.. TREND CANDLES.. the 2 ii pattern that is forming now (at the moment of writing) I interpret as a bearish flag and simply a pause in trend.
With a tight bearish trend channel as it is now? what is the probability of a bullish reversal? Understand that 75% (!) of trend reversals fail!!!
The pattern that is now forming, the bearish channel, is the result of a HIGHER HIGH MAJOR TREND REVERSAL + an attempt to breakout of a trading range.. Well 80% of breakout attempts out of a trading range FAIL!
Personally I see the probability of another swing down more common/likely than a bullish reversal..
Never forget it is all about PROBABILITIES..
BUT if you would like to take a HIGH PROBABILITY trade this would be one..
What is high probability trade ?? --> more worse risk reward ratio because your stopp loss is above the high of the major move.. but the chances of winning the trade is bigger..
Feel free to like and share and comment..
BTC Bitcoin: 1D Chart UpdateHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for Bitcoin (BTCUSD), a cryptocurrency.
The chart is self-explanatory. Bitcoin has the potential to move up with the RSI about to cross a key area. Stochastic RSI is oversold however it has the potential to stay in that region as shown in the prior periods. VPVR (Volume Profile) shows a key area of resistance in the same area of the Fibonacci Golden Pocket range (0.618-0.65). If price begins to move lower, keep an eye on the Danger Zone Support Line.
Shown: Ichimoku Clouds, RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastic RSI (Stoch RSI), Fibonacci Extension, Volume Profile (VPVR), Support and Resistance Trendline, and Volume.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Bitcoin after January.Bitcoin looks like will rallie up after January, taking the charts as they are, not taking news into consideration...
The 100k as I see it, will not be in the next months!!
Take a good look at the charts?? Events...legs, always meet price before, why should it change??Cuz "To the moon"?
Trading its what it is, not what you want it to be. Kinda Like Life.......
Merry Christmas And A Happy New Year!Merry Christmas And A Happy New Year To My Tradingview Community! Let's make 2022 a fantastic year!
From your friend,
CryptoPickk
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
