btcThis review was done in Time Monthly and it is only my personal opinion, and it is not the basis for decision
At first glance, according to the past information, and the type of movement of candles, if we are to consider a similar behavior for Bitcoin, a 55% correction and a 77% correction can be considered. But when this movement is done , that the area of 42 to 49 thousand should be broken
Bitcointrading
BTC short term viewBTC / USDT
After the massive drop of market in 13th april
The market turned to be range market with slightly bearish in short term
However in med - long term i still see it very bullish specially after the halving event that occurred 4 days ago
In the coming days/ weeks we can see BTC is testing 60k zone multiple times with some fakouts here and there
However if BTC able to close weekly above recent ATH we will see market turn strong bullish again
Until that we still in this range …
In this range try to avoid overtrading / fomo / panic selling
Long term trades are fine
Short term trades with strict risk management and stoploss are fine too
Best of wishes
BTCUSD: Bearish on the 1D timeframe but bullish divergence on 4HBitcoin is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.469, MACD = -911.900, ADX = 24.282) but on the 4H timeframe it has posted a bullish divergence on the RSI via a HL trendline, which was present on the last two Lows. Those were not bullish divergencies though as the price was also on HL, which makes today's formation even more bullish. The pattern is a Channel Down so we are now aiming at a new LH on the short term. This was priced previously on the 0.9 Fibonacci level, so our TP = 71,000.
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BTCUSD: 1D MA50 broken after 2 months. Selling isn't over.Bitcoin may be neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.271, MACD = 810.300, ADX = 25.259) but it just broke under the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 2 months (February 6th last contact). In the meantime, it crossed under the HL trendline of the Ascending Triangle, so we have a full-scale technical bearish breakout. The RSI pattern looks very much like the January 12th 1D MA50 bearish breakout.
If Bitcoin closes the 1D candle under it, we will wait for the bottom to be formed on the S1 level, always above the 1D MA100 (which supported on the January 23rd low) and buy (should be a around a week after the Halving) targeting a little over the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 100,000). That was where the March 14th top was priced.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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BTC Big triangleAfter BTC reach bearish target at por previous analysis, BTC go down a little more to to perform a big triangle pattern.
if this triangle support able to hold bearish, next bullish target at triangle resistance at 70.763
But if this pattern broken down,.. I will make a new analysis.
Good luck
Bitcoin could be closer to the new top then we thinkIf the fear in these market intensify. The new top for 2024 could be behind us. I sure hope I'm wrong and it keeps going up so I make money, But, we are running out of gas, the halving could be a sell the news event. Never forget the most important rule, Always keep some change in case of emergency, to buy the dip. And never be all in forever past the past top.
INDEX:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Counter WickoffEverything is in Graph. if you don't know about Wickoff Strategy, i invite you to DYOR it.
- i will try to explain you how to counter Whales/institutionals as small retails investors
- of course this method can be adjusted with your portofolio, i just made it very simple to make peoples understand how to invest wisely.
- This Chart is based on the Money you don't need for living!
- if you use this method correctly and adapt it to your portofolio, you will always restart a new cycle with more money.
- if you look at the chart closely, you will understand that i didn't use higher points to take profits and keep always 10,000$ in Market, so this chart is based on human mistakes and not much greed.
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- in this method we starts with 10,000$ invest as exemple.
- Take profits 2 Times, keep base investment in market ( because we don't know the real potential Top ).
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- The Second Phase is waiting for the Dip and buying back
- Re-inject Money 3 Times in the Dip and Wait for market recovery phase ( because we don't know the real potential Bottom )
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- if the bottom was a mistake and BTC fall down more.
- just invest slowly what you don't need for living and be patient, BTC is fundamentally poised to go up.
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- This method can be done with 10$ - 100$ - 1000$, no matter money because everything is based % invest and Time.
- Remember that your management is the most important, if you don't manage your money correctly, Tears will come.
"You have to believe that you are the one who creates your success and also that you are the one who creates your mediocrity".
Happy Tr4Ding !
BITCOIN Outlook for Q2 2024Hello everyone,
hope you guys had a great Easter Holiday.
Same as in Q1, I decided to share with you What I Think is the Most likely going to happen with price in Q2 , purely based on current micro¯o economic conditions and indicators, plus what are charts presenting right now.
Before I get to the business, I would like to reflect on my Q1 outlook, mostly because I believe things that were said and thought back then are still relevant today for future outlook (Q2), so I would suggest if you want to understand better, check out this first ↓↓↓
So when the year started, my Base Expectation was: " my Base Expectation is the market can still keep going higher. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decides to START cutting rates.
I guess everyone knows what happened next... We indeed rallied, in matter of fact, to the new ATHs at around 74k. This is impressive to me, considering the market conditions we are at right now and what is possibly coming soon (Q2).
Finally it's time to get back to the business, so let's get to the "prediction" of what Q2 most likely bring upon us.
So, I have to say, I believe that today Bitcoin conditions are harder to read than back in Q1 due to several reasons. One I already mentioned and its Price reaching New ATHs, but there are several others like CPI numbers are still elevated, potential upticks in unemployed numbers, FED balance, FED meetings and the most important - first Interest Rates cutting around the corner.
These conditions make the market harder to read because of the Time Window that it provides for Price to "keep run going higher" before "expectations of reverse". Meaning, that market participants still expect the market to go higher, because there was not Rate Cuts yet, BUT Price already can be elevated enough and with Cuts around the corner process of Market Selling/Reversing may start sooner (being frontrunned) before the official Cut is done. Explained in chart pic. ↓↓↓
And since my Whole Idea is Based on previous time in History when we were in similar market conditions, either times were different (highier IR, highier CPI, price at ATH), I still expect Markets to do the same thing, because I believe that human behavior and psyche related to Markets not changing, so result should be same, until we proved otherwise.
So basically, My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
" 6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found "
Aswell note, that the price of asset class (BTC) went down in time with FED balance sheet and even kept going lower due to the "recession scare" even when FED balance sheet started expanding, and that the New Bull market didn't start until FED printed ridiculous amount of money.
Since I believe this perception of the Market is still valid, I will follow it further until I am proved wrong by the chart itself.
= Price will be higher than 74k in July after the first rate cut already occurred.
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
Best regards,
Joe
BTCUSD Gaussian Channel says we're only getting started.Bitcoin is 238 days into green Gaussian Channel territory and highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 81.515, MACD = 8672.400, ADX = 68.211). What would be bad news to buy for any other asset, is actually great for Bitcoin as historically it has seen its biggest gains while deeply overbought. As far as the Gaussian is concerned, every time it has been 238 days past the red zone, the price only rose from there, and as a matter of fact parabolically. This means that we haven't seen the strongest part of this Bull Cycle. In our opinion and based on the HH trendline, $250,000 should be a minimum target for this Cycle.
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It's a Bird? It's a Plane? Nah, it's a Bat.This daily chart has me packing up my things and getting ready to run for the hills!
If we do break down from here and start to form some sort of Bat harmonic formation then I will be asking the age old question, "How low can we go?"
See my previous post below, which I think may end up reinforcing this on the weekly chart.
Could I be wrong? Of course, I mean, I'm a werewolf...I spend most of my time chasing my own tail!
Bark at me!
Owhooooo!
Bitcoin Prediction''Here you can see Elliott wave counting on Bitcoin price...
It can be true it the wave count of primary correction of 4th wave be correct and it Bitcoin be in the 5th wave of primary degree...
If the wave count be wrong, I should say that Bitcoin is in the end of B correction or the first of C wave of primary degree and maybe we see Bitcoin falling down....
Let see what will happen...
📈Bitcoin is going to rebound? / Trading setups (Updates soon)📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Hello dear traders.
In the 2-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is trying to stabilize above the 2-hour and 4-hour middle Bollinger lines.
The $69,500 level is an important resistance in front of Bitcoin, if Bitcoin fails to pass this resistance, a head-and-shoulders pattern scenario is likely.
Otherwise, above the $69,000 level, the Bitcoin scenario will change. (This analysis will be updated later)
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BTC Channel down Broken upIf we look at 4 hour timeframe, Expanding channel up support able to hold bearish wave,
and BTC already success break channel down. This is a good news for bullish, not only for BTC, but also for all alt coin.
We have 74.055 previous high as target, with maximum target at fibonaci 1.414 at 82.285
If this channel up broken down, we have 59.800 as next fibonacci support to hold bearish movement.
Don't forget to support this idea to get a quick notification of any updates.
Happy trading, May profit be with you.
BTCUSD: A healthy correction. $250000 isn't at all unrealistic.Bitcoin remains overbought on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 81.582, MACD = 8133.500, ADX = 73.810) despite the recent pullback. On a Cycle basis, this has been nothing but a healthy correction, typical of Bitcoin when it crosses over its ATH. Being overbought on the 1W RSI has been a very bullish attribute during the parabolic rallies of the Bull Cycles and there is no reason to expect anything different this time around.
Last time BTC rose from the prior ATH to the new by +256%. A repeat of that gives as 250,000 target. Ahead of the upcoming Halving in April where the supply is again cut in half, such a target doesn't seem unrealistic now, if the ETF demand stays unchanged. It rose almost +90% since the ETF approval, why shouldn't it accelerate by double if BTC's supply is cut in half?
Stay focused and stay bullish.
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BTC Fractal - What's next for Bitcoin after NEW ATH?📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
BTC had recently formed a new ATH, and we're a few weeks away from the BTC halving.
What I see is the potential for two scenarios playing out, both based on fractals ( bullish and bearish ). Both fractals will have certain conditions, and I will point them out in detail so we will know what to look for.
From a diagonal trendline analysis, 61K is a potential touch point. If we lose this support , the bearish fractal becomes more likely.
The potential bearish fractal:
The other scenario that is a possibility, is a correction followed by a longer period of range/sideways trading before an even higher new ATH, as we saw right after the ATH in 2013:
This scenario is more likely when we stay ABOVE the 60k support zone. From a larger timeframe, that fractal played out like this:
From a macro perspective / multi-month / multi year, I believe BTC has even higher highs in store:
NOTE : Because there are so many large institutions in the game this time, I don't expect the correction to be as big as per previous cycles.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT