BITCOIN FALSE DOUBLE TOP CONFIRTMATION?!Bitcoin make double top in timeframe 45 and some other tf. and its not yet confirm if the price will going down because there is a false break from 2 bar ahead.
There is 2 strategy will i show by my analyst.
1. the price only make little correction and continue to go down if the price hit support line or lowest price from false break candle.
2. the price will bouncing in the area between support and resistance
yeah, that is my forecast and strategy where the price go and there's many unexpected event like the price will going high/down immediately because of sentiment or other correlation thing.
share your analyst/suggestion down below so we can discuss more about this crypto 😍.
Bitcointrend
Bitcoin - will the new ATH? (Be carreful) BTC/USDTHello dear friends, I will not write much, because now there is no sense to describe what is already visible on the chart. I just want to warn you about the possibility - a double top.
But since our previous plan is working out, while we are working on the situation.
My yesterday's scenario of a fall did not work, as I expected, yes, of course we took 950 points/$ of profit, but I misjudged the situation then.
P.S We could have made more.
All description in comments.
Bitcoin - 3 months open trade: profit - 12385p/$ - loss 13950p/$Hello dear friends.
Today I, together with other participants who trade with me on private trading ideas, summed up the total for 3 months.
Every trading day, every position, and the loss recorded in my e-diary. (For everyone who wants to see this - write to me in messages) I will send you all the information from this.
Second, today in a private trading idea, we opened a long position from 32000. And Ilon MASK helped us with this. It NOT ONLY launches rockets in space well, but also launches a Bitcoin rocket.
But We work within the day, and yes, yesterday for 9 open trade deals, we got a small minus.
I very well analyzed the situation with bitcoin yesterday, but I was afraid that you would not lose - but we went to breakeven, as the previous long overcame the loss.
Today I decided to suspend open trading, because during all this time, you could be convinced that we earn more than we lose.
Every position, every my entrance, analysis of the situation - All this happened before your eyes.
Today is the last day of open trading, because other traders who trade with me in private ideas have made a riot on the ship. (after all, I began to provide more information in the public domain)
Therefore, if you want to follow me further, write to me in private messages. I will give you all the information there.
Watch the levels, trade wisely, now I have nothing to add, since all my previous analyzes (except for shorts) are worked out in the right way.
All targets are reached one by one, and I think the time of great Volatility has come - be careful.
Bitcoin - Big profit in long positions - achieved. BTC/USDT Let's do an open trade marathon ???
Write in the comments if you want to see the marathon of open deals that I will conduct.
Exact entry, target and stop loss?
Hello dear friends
I want to congratulate each of you who made the decision to follow me again.
We have reached 3 targets, which were our priority.
I would like to inform you, right away that the traders who trade with me in private ideas and I tried to open a short position.
It was dangerous - and yes, it did not justify itself , since after the price returned to our level, a candlestick was formed - Hammer at 1h TF (which indicates the continuation of the trend)
Having made a reverse position with an increased lot, we again collect a profitable fruit, and the expectation of a breakdown of 40,000 as well as reaching our goal of 40,900 - let's take a look.
Bitcoin analysis using Trend Buy and Sell (TBS) IndicatorTBS indicator signaled buy at price of $9,153 the week of 8 Jun 2020 after getting into the bull phase by crossing over 50 weekly ma and holding 21 weekly ma. On the week of 16 Nov 2020 Bitcoin signaled sell at the price of $17,724. That is 93% profit trade without cherry picking the bottoms and tops. Based on the indicator I am expecting a pull back in next 2 to 4 weeks into the buy band and then continue higher.
A brief description of TB is given below.
TBS identifies trend based on price cross-over/cross-under to a moving average. Confirmed Up-trend is displayed in green and Down-trend in red backgrounds. Before a trend is confirmed price cross-over is displayed in blue and cross-under in orange backgrounds. Once an uptrend is confirmed, TBS suggest buys based on touch downs to a Support moving average by a green arrow under the candle . A sell is suggested by TBS by a red arrow on top of the candle when the price reaches a certain percentage above support moving average. Motivation and Tolerance levels are provided to fine tune buying and selling signals.
Example: Default settings for BTC Weekly charts are Trend Moving Average = 50, Support Moving Average = 21, Motivation Buy = 10, Tolerance Buy = 5, Motivation Sell = 50 and Tolerance Sell = 90. That means in uptrend identified by green background every time the closing price touches 10% higher than 21 week moving average value TBS suggests buy, so a trader can choose to buy 80% of intended position at this level. If the price continues to drop down and touches 5% below 21 week moving average, a trader may choose to buy another 20% at this level. In the likely scenarios of price hike from here a trader may choose to sell 80% at the Motivation Sell level 50% higher than 21 week moving average. If the price reaches Tolerance Sell level at 90% higher than 21 week moving average a trader may choose to sell remaining 20% of the position.
Note 1: TBS suggest Buys and sells but the execution of buy and sell is up to trader's discretion for example using Stop Buy order or Limit Buy order etc.
Note 2: TBS is designed to be a medium to long term indicator for example weekly and monthly timescales. Traders might find it useful on shorter term time-frames but its not designed for short term time frame in mind.
Note 3: Most of the parameters in TBS indicator are configurable as Trend Moving Average and Support Moving Average vary significantly across assets. Default parameters are set for Bitcoin Weekly time frame. Traders should play around with parameters to find best fit for Trend Moving Average and Support Moving Average for the asset of interest. For example TBS is very relevant and useful for Gold Weekly time frame with Trend Moving Average = 100, Support Moving Average = 30, Motivation Buy = 1, Tolerance Buy = 0, Motivation Sell = 11 and Tolerance Sell = 20.
Warning Indicator To Avoid Over TradingOne sensible way to avoid over trading on a low time-frame is to look at Heiken Ashi. If you can not observe clean and tidy trends with your preferred risk/reward ratio including take profit targets and stop loss positions, why trade? Look for trading zone breakout opportunities and be patient, remain calm, don't over trade.
LTCBTC Monthly falling wedge LTCBTC is in a possible monthly falling wedge, we need to look at the wedge support to see if it will hold another push down. Looking forward to migrating my BTC hold positions back to Litecoin. We have one last support at 0.0052 than no more support on the monthly timeframe, if we lose, litecoin will be in trouble.
SHORT-CORRECTIVE WAVES COMPLEX I trace the trends movements with Elliott Waves. I think that this is not a trend reversal but it is a Corrective waves (Into a complex Bear Pennant). The pole flag it is rappresented from the last intensive moviment of the recent downtrend. I think that the price will go down around 6,2-6,7k USD.
This analysis is a continuation of the previous ones
Bitcoin is in Wave CHi Guys,
I was in doubt till February 2020 when bitcoin was trading above $7300 and touched $10500 for the 3d time, after when BTC dropped below $7300 I was sure that it will touch near $5500 (200 Weekly Moving Average) and next it went down from that level as well and touched 3850 and on some exchanges it touched $3770 as well.
Now based on my analysis and market scenario I can say the drop from $19667 to $3156 was wave A of correction and that Wave B from $3156 to $13970 we have seen a very fast recovery from $3156 to $13970 (Usually Wave B shows this kind of Fast Recovery).
And Now BTC is in Wave C where Bitcoin is ready to make a fresh low in next couple of months. As per my research Wave C usually Comes near to BTC halving you can see chart (1st halving - 2012, 2nd Halving 2016, 3rd Halving May 2020). Wave C always make a fresh low (it can go down by $1-$2 from its previous low $3156 , but it will make a fresh low).
At present I am waiting for the right levels somewhere around $7935 to take a short position in BTC and will hold it below previous low $3156.
As per my expectation recently Monthly 100 Moving Average is also started which is near $2750 in coming months we can we it around $2900 - $3000 level, market may test that level and try to consolidate near that.
I HOPE BITCOIN WILL GO TO MOON SOON
Regards,
Crypto Money Mantra
Bitcoin: It's not gonna make it, is it?This quick idea is intended to illustrate what is happening to Bitcoin and how final it is.
Let's take a look at the development of the Bitcoin / Gold ratio over the last five years.
The thick black line was always the last support.
On March 12, 2020, it was broken down massively and very aggressively and became the new long-term resistance.
Thereafter, on 20th March, the price still tried to overcome the new resistance and was rejected.
From now on it will go down for a very long time and very deeply.
A "hodl" strategy makes no sense at all under these circumstances, unless you are willing to wait many years and want to risk losing everything in the end.
With regard to Bitcoin's long-term prospects, it is particularly important to monitor the further course of the thick black line.
If, as it looks at the moment, it bends and starts to go down, then the Bitcoin dream is over.
The line will bend if the price of Bitcoin remains permanently below it and cannot break out beyond it.
Take care & stay healthy!
BTC USDT, Probably Bearish PennantIt seems that enthusiasm due to the recent decline in historical media is rapidly coming to a halt. The most attentive has not responded to the purchase around 7k USD. I believe that this triangle can predict the new Bearish towards lower supports confirming last week's bearish trend.
A difficult time to venture forecasts, but we'll see.
For me, it's a 70% Bearish.
BITCOIN: This could be your life-changing trade?!
If you are watching the actions this week, that was very big firework on the ground.
09/23: BAKKT Launch
09/24: FSC general SEC meeting
and after this meeting 400M $ of LONGS liquidated on bullmarket(!) and BTC dropped 15% in a single day mostly in one hour....
You sould ask: WTF happend here sir? They said BAKKT is bullish...or not?
Let's see where could go the price from now:
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1/ ANALYZE THE 200DMA PRICE ACTIONS
Are on bearmarket again? Or will be soon?
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The most important indicator for BTC is the 200MA ribbon on daily:
* closing above this for more than 2 days & after a long term trend: we are now on bullmarket
* closing below this for more than 2 days & after a long term trend: we are on bearmarket
Lets see EVERY example in BTC history:
2011 Sept - 2012 Marc / BTC Daily
* small market , penny stock , short time of bearmarket
* 200MA closed below, but the bulls didn't can close above 200MA for many days
(bulltraps over time from 2012 Jan to Marc)
2012 Marc - 2014 Marc / BTC Daily
In the next 2 years BTC didn't can to close below the 200MA, only once (for 1 day) but obviously that was a beartrap
2014 Marc - 2015 Jun / BTC Daily
Closing more than 2 days below 200MA causing new bearmarket for more than 1 year.
After few hundred days trend changed and confirmed with more than 2 daily candle, doesn't matter this bulltrap near after the trend reversal.
2015 Jun- 2017 Dec / BTC Daily
This one is very interesting! After a ~1.5 years of bear trend we are closing above 200MA for more than 2 days.
After 1 month the bears trapped for another month.
After the fake breakdown we are now on confirmed bullmarket for the next 2 years.
2018 Febr - 2019 Apr / BTC Daily
After 2 years 3 candles in a row closed below 200MA you.
So you should prepare for bearmarket.
Doesn't really matter where the price goes after this .... or deadcat or whatever
We are on confirmed bear trend now.
2019 Apr - ? / BTC Daily
Closing above 200MA for 3 days after a long bearmarket confirms the trend changed to BULLISH.
Touching or closing for a few days (or perhaps for a month!) below the 200MA after a confirmed trend changing doesn't really effect the main trend for next 1-2 years.
Which is now obviously BULLISH since April 1...
CONCLUSION of the 200DMA point : if we are changing the 1-2 years main trend with more then 2 candle close on the other side of the 200MA : this will cause trend changing for long duration anyway.
If we are going below the 200DMA at the starting of a bullmarket (like now) - the price cannot stay there more then ~1 month beacause the trend already flipped before strongly.
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2/ RSI(20) must be your best friend ever
The best tool for searching entry points inside a trend
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I've wrote an another educational content about RSI(20) usage : BTCUSD How to making LOT of MONEY - Hunting Divergence
So I'm a very conservative trader, I'm not using many charting tools, because as I've experienced: most of them are showing the past instead of future.
So using MA, EMA, Boilinger B., MACD, Stochstic oscillators, SAR, and other averaged ribbons are not the best way for catching a momentum of a good entry point!
Instantly stop using these indicators if you are not veryvery successfuly with these tools in the past 1 year!
I will writing more free educational materials about my YOU-MUST-USE indicators. (these are completely free and built in on every charting software....so this is not an advertisement!)
The RSI(20) is the most important one!
In this section I will show the other usage or daily RSI on the BTC chart (not the divergence, what about I was wrote earlier).
There is a proofable correlation of BTCUSD and the daily RSI : During a confirmed bullmarket if you are open a long position ONLY WHEN the RSI(20) CLOSE on daily is below 40 : you must be maybe one of the most successfuly traders on the world.
As you see 5/5 example worked at the last bullmarket....
And that is not all!
If you've opened this only once at the first occured time inside a bulltrend and let the position run away to the moon for at least 1.5-2 years.... so this causing 20x, 30x, 40x, 50x price move!
Oh boy what a move, it isn't?
Think about it: how many times are you so stressed about the intraday price moves...and for what?! Big lose or small win inside a day trading... not very satisfied if you would like to live a normal life out there in the world!
With this strategy you can make at least the following dollar value result:
* x20 BTCUSD move like above
* with Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract trade ( for example with Bybit )
* and ONLY x2 MARGIN (which I think is very safe!)
YOU'VE MADE 40x profit ( 4 000 % ) on BTC and 80 000% (800x) on USD value !
With only ONE TRADE in 2 years...
I don't know how are you guys, but that is far enought for me.... for a whole life maybe. This is a lifechanging profit, even if you are only started with 0.2BTC ! ( for example: if you are started with 0.2BTC now 1.700$, after a cycle that means 1.360.000$ !!! )
GUESSSING where is BTCUSD now:
Yes, just started the first retrace bottom of this cycle!!!!
(This is not financial adwise, I'm just writing what I'm doing now!!!)
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3/ Other confirmation tools for this bottom
STOP-loss, Targeting and Helper indicators
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NOTE: I will writing free educational content about these indicators, but now I would like to point the confirm sings only.
3/2/ VPVR - the weighted volumes
This is a very popular indicator in the current bullmarket, this means: many people are watching this, and trading this levels as S/R.
You can see: the most occured range is $7.9k . That is the strongest support level.
3/2/ TD Sequential - the tired trend indication
The 9th daily bear sequence inside a bullmarket almost every time indicates main trend continuation.
This indicator is only good for confirm your idea, not the ultimate tool!
The pro traders who are using this are sayin: after the 13th candle after complete a 9th sequence you can prepare for trend reversal. But not necessary wait for that, effective on more TF-s. And now 4H, 6H, 12H, 1D TF are almost equal.
3/3/ FIBONACCI measure - predict retracement levels
Most classic natural price level tool for pre-calculate retrace prices.
At Aug 1st I've wrote and article about that ( BTC will show you: SIR, WHEN MOON? ) and is's still valid now.
FIB 0.616 - 0.5 range is the best retrace level inside a strong trend.
As you see: the absolute calculated bottom is $7.2k of this correction move.
3/4/ Murray's Math - the pointless insane/fear indicator
We could just guessing the exact algoryhm of this (because the original software is licence proteted) but there is a free indicator tool in tradingview called "UCS_Murrey's Math Oscillator_V2" which is almost working similar like the original indicator.
During bullmarket if the value of this indicator showing value under -0.75 : that means pointless fear on the market
Now this indicator showing us -0.95 ... very good!
(If this indicator would bottoming to -1 : there would be no lower at that price, that level would be a blindly instant LONG. We are very close but not necessary waiting for that value.)
3/5/ Classic TA with market structure
I've posted about market structure at Aug.7., and that TA and trendlines are still valid now: BTC is at top & Overbought territory
But freshing to double channeling:
Classic TA is always the best way to find out moves:
* ~41% is the most bigger correction amount during bullmarkets
* double channel structure valid since 14k and 3 months
* 200MA wicking as support
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CONCLUSION
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Q: Is the current price (~8.3k) the absolute bottom of the current correction?
A: Not sure, but we can define the absolute bottom as 7.2k
Q: It isn't too early to going long?
A: Depends on your timeframe. For me absoluteley not. Half of my cap long with x3 margin from 8.2k, and other half opening another if we will going lower (example: 7.2k)
Q: What is your target with your current trade?
A: I'm opening these positions to reaching at least 800-1000x USD based profit with only one trade. So my target is the end of the bull cycle (~2 years from now). By my calculation $200k-300k bitcoin price for there.
Q: STOP-loss level?
A: under 7k. If we reach the 7.2k, then I'm opening another long with mutch higher margin(for example x5). But always protecting your capital is the first thing need to do! If you are conservative, use only 1.5x leverage.
Q: What if I'm scared about going long now?
A: No problem, you can wait for any divergence on 1H or 4H chart. In that case this article will helping you BTCUSD How to making LOT of MONEY - Hunting Divergence
Q: What is you are wrong?
A: Nothing, I'm just a guy from the internet...this is not financial adwise! I'm just descibing my techniqes and ideas about the actual situations.
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Bitcoin, Bulls are still running, waiting for re-entryWaiting for price action to meet the blue 1/10th*233 ma on the 1hr chart before re-entry for a long. CCI looks great and we're above the 1hr 100ma. Last time we were above the 1hr 100ma we ran to 12k
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