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Bitcointrend

Waiting for a BTC Break From the Current DowntrendPatience pays in trading. Sure one can come in really anytime and start trading on the low time frames, but how do you know you are trading in the right direction? This is where zooming out to longer time frames can give you a better outlook on what the market is actually doing. If you only focus on short term time frames for scalps, you can easily miss the bigger picture and you may actually be fighting against a bigger trend. This is why I always check daily and the 1-4 hour time frames before I go jumping into the 1-5 minute time frames... Yes, I am back trading the 1 minute candle for scalp trades, haha. Because of this, I am seeing that the current downtrend in Bitcoin could be coming to an end, but I want to be sure before I go and start putting in buy orders. We are seeing a BUY signal from the Logical Trading Indicator PRO, but I want to wait until the price actually breaks above the long period moving average. What may be even better is to wait until the basis line (20 WMA) breaks the long period moving average. That is a clear change in trend. Waiting for the bigger trend to turn bullish is a better move, in my opinion, than just jumping in and stabbing away at long trades. For now, since the downtrend is still in play, I am currently looking for shorting opportunities until that bigger trend changes to the other direction. We may very possibly see the 50K-52K level again as there are order blocks stacked up in that area where there are buy orders ready to soak up some cheap Bitcoin. What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Bitcoin? Would love to know your thoughts in the comments!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thelogicaldude
Friday Market Update - $IBIT, $BTC, $DXY and $SOL ForecastHere's a quick update to the video I posted last week showing a final unfilled Gap on the 4-Hour NASDAQ:IBIT likely pushing price down (We're NOT sure yet how this is correlated, other than the BIG money is playing with Options / Futures and now the NASDAQ:IBIT , which makes Bitcoin a Wall Street product now essentially. My targets on Bitcoin now are $57k and I'm thinking we may even see a 'news driven' selloff to the $50k - GETTEX:52K range into our buy blocks as shown here. "Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news" is one of my mantras, and with everyone thinking we go higher here, I'm thinking we have one more shakeout to wipe out some longs. Last week a well-known short posted that he 'gave in and the Bulls Win' showing his $2.5M loss. Think the games are over? I think not. So I'm mostly out of the market, holding some SOL and planning to DCA buy lower at levens I mention in the video. I also dicuss the DXY bounce, Total Market Cap, and why this weekly candle close is important. Apologies -- the recording stopped when I tried to update one of my alerts, and I have a Labor Day party to finish planning so no time to-record it. Have a great weekend everyone, and let's see what Tuesday brings when the big Wall Street traders get back from summer vacation and start putting wall-street money to work.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BrettFogle
Bitcoin, is the bull run continuing soon?I expect the Bitcoin price to consolidate in the 53,600 - 49,000 zone, after the price is fixed in the zone, I expect to see a price increase and a high probability of breaking the maximum. If you look at the Online LTH Realized Profit 7D metric, you can see a similar seasonality of the market that was in 2021, in addition to the online metric, I conducted a deeper study and found many arguments that confirm my expectations, there is a low probability that the price will drop below 48,900, I do not expect this level to break through.
by GarateTradeCrypto
3
Bitcoin Seasonality: GMI Total Liquidity Index CorrelationBitcoin's price action appears to correlate with seasonal trends in global market liquidity, as measured by the GMI Total Liquidity Index. This relationship offers insights into potential Bitcoin price movements throughout the year: Winter (Blue): Often coincides with tighter liquidity conditions. Bitcoin may experience consolidation or downward pressure during this period. Spring (Green): Usually marks the beginning of increasing liquidity. Bitcoin tends to show signs of accumulation and the start of upward movements. Summer (Yellow): Typically represents peak liquidity conditions. Bitcoin often experiences strong bullish trends during this season, with some of the most significant price increases. Fall (Orange/Brown): Liquidity begins to taper off. Bitcoin may continue its upward trend from summer but at a slower pace, or begin to show signs of distribution. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin's price movements might be influenced by broader market liquidity cycles. Higher liquidity periods (spring and summer) tend to correlate with stronger Bitcoin performance, while lower liquidity periods (fall and winter) often see more muted or negative price action. Disclaimer: It's crucial to note that while these patterns are observable, they aren't guaranteed to repeat. Other factors such as regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic events can significantly impact Bitcoin's price, potentially overriding seasonal liquidity trends. Traders and investors might use this seasonal liquidity perspective as one of many tools for understanding potential Bitcoin market cycles, always in conjunction with other forms of analysis for a comprehensive view.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MacroViewer101
2
Price Psychology and Game TheoryMarkets move in cycles and based on game theory . Everyone is risk averse and everyone jumps in when it appears "risk free". This is how prices would be bid up. Stocks work like auction . During Bull runs -> Highest payer - bids up the prices and the averages increase. During Bears -> it's a fire sale. BUYER has an upper hand and takes the lower prices available. It's human nature... Game theory states you buy whilst you can else you will be left behind. during "ATH" prices fly because prices are relative . Where the driver is the credit condition cycle (loose is good) and ofcourse ETFs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by citsvar
1
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle ConceptHere we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023. This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here: Enjoy!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
📈 Yearly Engulfing from the Bulls: A Year in Green 📈Macro bullish-engulfing yearly chart. 🟢 Unstoppable Ascent (2009-2012): A solid start, Bitcoin embarks on an upward journey, laying down the foundation for what will become a digital gold rush. 🔴 Moderation in Momentum (2012-2015): The red candles suggest a period of consolidation, a breather where the bulls and bears are at a tug-of-war, testing the resilience of the new digital asset. 🟢 Climbing Higher (2015-2018): Post-consolidation, Bitcoin shows its true potential, climbing with conviction, as if saying, "This is just the beginning." 🔴 A Pause, Not a Stop (2018): A single red candle hints at hesitation but not defeat. The journey isn't over; it's a mere pit stop for the bulls to gather strength. 🟢 Bullish Engulfment (2019-2021): Here we witness a classic bullish engulfing pattern on a macro scale, where subsequent green candles completely overshadow prior periods of doubt, solidifying Bitcoin's position in the market. 🟢 Continued Confidence (2021-2022): The trend continues, with each green candle standing tall, shoulders above previous years, showcasing a relentless bullish sentiment that seems to say, "To the moon." 🚀 Outlook: The overall trend is undeniably bullish. This 12-month chart paints a picture of a strong upward trajectory, symbolizing the growing acceptance and investment in Bitcoin. Each green candle lights the way to potentially higher valuations, as each year seems to engulf the last, showcasing the undimmed optimism in the cryptocurrency's future. 💡 Investor Insight: While past performance isn't indicative of future results, the pattern here is clear – Bitcoin has been a persistent force, gaining ground year after year. It stands as a testament to the cryptocurrency's growing influence and staying power in the financial landscape. 🚦 Traffic Light Indicator: Green for Go: The overarching bullish engulfing pattern across multiple years gives a green signal for continued upward potential. Amber for Caution: A single red candle hints at natural market corrections. Vigilance is advised as volatility is part of Bitcoin's nature. Red for Stop and Assess: Should a red candle form that rivals the stature of its preceding greens, it may signal a time to re-evaluate market conditions. Remember, while the market's enthusiasm is palpable, one must trade with caution and consider the inherent risks and volatility of cryptocurrency investments. For a more detailed analysis, or to explore specific trading strategies, feel free to reach out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Shibunacci
BTC - Expecting new all-time highs soon Proficient analysis of historical patterns is paramount; failure to glean insights from the past often leads to repeated errors. This axiom holds true not only within the realm of trading but extends to broader facets of life. The narrative unfolds with the breakdown of the descending trend line, after which an ascending triangle is formed followed by a new trend movement After exiting the ascending triangle, we move to the global khai, accumulate stops (consolidation), consolidate above and follow the trend
Long
by truepersonal
5
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective. In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry) This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
BITCOIN Outlook for Q2 2024Hello everyone, hope you guys had a great Easter Holiday. Same as in Q1, I decided to share with you What I Think is the Most likely going to happen with price in Q2 , purely based on current micro&macro economic conditions and indicators, plus what are charts presenting right now. Before I get to the business, I would like to reflect on my Q1 outlook, mostly because I believe things that were said and thought back then are still relevant today for future outlook (Q2), so I would suggest if you want to understand better, check out this first ↓↓↓ So when the year started, my Base Expectation was: " my Base Expectation is the market can still keep going higher. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decides to START cutting rates. I guess everyone knows what happened next... We indeed rallied, in matter of fact, to the new ATHs at around 74k. This is impressive to me, considering the market conditions we are at right now and what is possibly coming soon (Q2). Finally it's time to get back to the business, so let's get to the "prediction" of what Q2 most likely bring upon us. So, I have to say, I believe that today Bitcoin conditions are harder to read than back in Q1 due to several reasons. One I already mentioned and its Price reaching New ATHs, but there are several others like CPI numbers are still elevated, potential upticks in unemployed numbers, FED balance, FED meetings and the most important - first Interest Rates cutting around the corner. These conditions make the market harder to read because of the Time Window that it provides for Price to "keep run going higher" before "expectations of reverse". Meaning, that market participants still expect the market to go higher, because there was not Rate Cuts yet, BUT Price already can be elevated enough and with Cuts around the corner process of Market Selling/Reversing may start sooner (being frontrunned) before the official Cut is done. Explained in chart pic. ↓↓↓ And since my Whole Idea is Based on previous time in History when we were in similar market conditions, either times were different (highier IR, highier CPI, price at ATH), I still expect Markets to do the same thing, because I believe that human behavior and psyche related to Markets not changing, so result should be same, until we proved otherwise. So basically, My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook: " 6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!! Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found " Aswell note, that the price of asset class (BTC) went down in time with FED balance sheet and even kept going lower due to the "recession scare" even when FED balance sheet started expanding, and that the New Bull market didn't start until FED printed ridiculous amount of money. Since I believe this perception of the Market is still valid, I will follow it further until I am proved wrong by the chart itself. = Price will be higher than 74k in July after the first rate cut already occurred. Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks! Best regards, Joe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptocapitaltrading