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Post Bitcoin Halving Drop ???Hi friends hope you are well. Today I want to discuss that is it necessary for the Bitcoin to drop pre or post halving? In order to understand this principle we need to see the previous Bitcoin halvenings then we will move to the current having. If we watch the Bitcoin halving 2012 then we can observe that before halvening the price action dropped more than 25% and this bearish move was ended before the halving. On the other hand if we watch the Bitcoin halving 2016 then the price action started dropping down before the event and this bearish move was continued even after the halving event. During this drop BTC lost more than 40% of its value. Now if we move to the current halving event then it can be seen that before halving we have witnessed a very strong bearish move that leaded the BTC more than 65% down in the March 2020. Most of the traders say that this drop was due to the world pandemic issue. Therefore it is possible that this down move doesn't have any connection with pre or post halving drop. If we accept this then we can expect that the drop has been started since 8th of May when the price action reached at $10000 and started dropping down. The exponential moving averages: Moreover if we see the movement of price action with the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 and 21. Then it can be seen that in 2012 the EMA 10 crossed down the EMA 21 before the Bitcoin halving. And after the halvening we can observe only a weak downtrend and during this weak trend the EMA 10 went very close to the EMA 21 but did not form a bear cross. After that both EMAs started moving up and then Bitcoin achieved more than 10000% profit within next one year. On the other hand in 2016 we can see that the EMA 10 formed the bear cross with EMA 21 after the Bitcoin halving then again the exponential moving average 10 crossed up EMA 21 and Bitcoin achieved more than 3000% bit gains within next one and a half year. Now let's move to the Bitcoin halving 2020 then it can be clearly seen that at this time EMA 10 is moving down and likely to form a bear cross with EMA 21 very soon. Even though the new candlestick has been opened below the EMA 21 but we cannot consider that the price action has broken down this EMA unless this candlestick will be completely opened and closed below exponential moving average 21. And we should wait for the death cross between two these two EMAs then we can expect a further very strong downward move before any long term bullish movement after Bitcoin halving. The price action may follow the relative strength index trend: In my previous post we have discussed that if the RSI is in downtrend but the price action is moving sideways or upward then finally the price action embrace the signal of relative strength index and it also moves down. At this time we can see that the RSI is in down trend even and this trend can be seen even on the daily chart, therefore the price action can start a downward move at anytime. However if the RSI will change its trend then the price action might not move down. Up channel: As we have already seen in my previous post that the Bitcoin has formed an up channel on the daily chart. And after hitting the resistance at $10,000 the price action drop down at the support of this channel. This time the price action is moving with the support, therefore there can be chances that the priceline will move up again from here to hit the resistance of the channel. But if the support of the channel will be broken down then the leading cryptocurrency can start a strong bearish rally. Bullish pennant: On the other hand on the same daily chart the price action of Bitcoin has formed a bullish pennant. At this time the price action is at the support of this pennant. And after hitting the resistance at this time BTC is at the support of this pennant and the green bullish candlesticks are appeared showing the tendency of the priceline to move up. The support of this pennant is also very critical if it will be broken down in the price action can start a strong bearish move as we have discussed in case of breaking down the channel support as well. The formation of bullish BAT: Now I would like to drive your attentions towards a very important move and that is the formation of bullish BAT pattern on the daily chart. At this time priceline of BTC is forming the last leg of this is BAT. And for the completion of this final leg we need the retracement between 0.786 to 0.886 Fibonacci sequence that starts from $8500 and ends up to $8300. If the price action will complete this is BAT that then there will be strong chanes that the price action can start a very strong bullish move from the potential reversal zone of this bullish BAT pattern. However the potential reversal zone of this pattern should be considered as stop loss. Because if the price action will break down this level then it can move more down for the formation of bullish Crab pattern. Conclusion: It is confirmed that post halving the Bitcoin starts very strong and long term bullish rally, however this is also a fact that pre or post halving period the Bitcoin also completes a bearish move as well. Therefore in case of breaking down the supports the Bitcoin can move further down, however if the supports will be saved then the Bitcoin can start long-term bullish move from here. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by moon333
1
Looking For Clean Break Above 9200 Before Reentering LongsI exited my long from 9K~ at roughly 9.12K. I had an opportunity to exit higher, but there seemed to be a chance of further upside if we broke 9.2K. Unfortunately, we were rejected at resistance and now we are ranging a bit lower. I'm looking for a clean break of 9200 to reenter my longs. This is a strong point of resistance on low time-frames. If we get a clean break, it would be reasonable to go long there, anything below is just more chop and will likely get you stopped out if you aren't going for HTF positions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by C19Trading
2
Will Bitcoin crash more???Hi friends hope you are doing good. In my previous post I have shared with you that the price of BTC has formed a bearish BAT on a short time 4 hour chart, therefore a drop was expected and we can see that the price action was not able to move up from the potential reversal zone of this BAT pattern. And first price action dropped on 15th of May and now we have witnessed the recent drop upto $8800 as per bitstamp exchange. This drop is up to 0.618 Fibonacci golden ratio therefore there can be possibility that the price action I will try to move up from here. RSI was giving bearish indication: In my previous article we were watching the movement of the price action and the RSI on 1 hour chart. But this is now reflected upto 4 hour chart. And we can clearly see that the price action was moving sideways on the other hand the relative strength index was in downtrend. As we have already discussed that if the price action is moving sideways or upward but the RSI is in downtrend then it is if bearish signal and we can expect a drop. Because in most of the cases the price action follow the trend of RSI. Is it a double top? After hitting the $10,000 the price action dropped down and recently it reached again very close to the $10K and now moving down. Most of the traders are considering it as double top move that can lead to a very big drop. But if we watch closely then it can be clearly seen that after reaching at $10,000 the price action did not drop even upto 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, therefore this drop was not sufficient to be called as a double top that can produce drastic downward move. Bull flag or bull trap? On the daily chart the price action of BTC is forming a 3rd bull flag. At this time the price action is moving sideways and being consolidated between the current expected bull flag. Now if the price action will be moved up from here then it can from another bull flag or otherwise if it will be dropped down then it can be able trap that can lead to a downtrend. Will Bitcoin follow the same pattern with combination of these indicators? In my previous post we have observed that since October 2019 the price action of the leading cryptocurrency is following a specific move with the combination of different indicators: the MACD ,vervoort heikin Ashi long-term candlestick oscillator and the Stochastic. And we have witnessed that when the vervoort heikin Ashi long-term candlestick oscillator turns green then first the MACD gives the sell and then buy and the sell signal again then Stochastic gives bear cross and the price action starts a bearish rally. This time when the vervoort was turned green then MACD gave sell, buy and selll signal. Therefore if the price action of BTC will follow the same pattern then we can expect another drop that can lead the Stochastic to enter in the over sold zone. The channels and moving averages: We can see that price action has again formed another channel like it had formed back from December 2019 to February 2020. At this time the priceline has reached at the support of the channel as we were expecting there are chances that the price action will take another bounce from here to reach the resistance level. We can also see that the 50 simple moving average has formed a golden cross with 200 simple moving average. This golden cross between the 200 and 50 SMAs is considered as a strong buying signal among the traders community. Therefore there are chances that now the traders will jump in and lead the price action up to the resistance. EMAs can give us idea whether the priceline will breakdown the support or not: If we take a look at the previous channel then we can also find such golden cross between the 200 and 50 SMAs. But at that time these moving averages could not provide strong support then how we can predict that this time the Bitcoin will not break down these two simple moving averages. For that we need to watch the movement of the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 and 21 on the same daily chart. And it can be clearly seen that before the priceline broke down the simple moving average 200 and 50, it broke down the exponential moving averages on 27th of February. That was a clear indication that the price action has turned bearish, therefore the simple moving averages were also broken down. But this time the price action is using the EMA 10 and 21 as support if these exponential moving averages will be broken down then we can expect that the priceline will also break down the channel resistance and the SMAs can also be broken down. Down channel on long term chart: Here I would like to recall the down channel again that has been formed on the weekly chart. At this time the price action is trying to break out the resistance of the channel that is really very strong and not broken down since June 2019. Once this resistance will be broken out then the Bitcoin can start as very long term bullish rally. If we watch the simple moving averages on this chart with the time period of 50, 25, 100 and 200 then all the moving average it has almost form the golden crosses with each other. The only final golden cross between 25 and 50 simple moving average is due. Once this bull cross will be appeared then a complete opened alligator mouth of SMAs will be formed that can lead the Bitcoin towards achievement of higher price ever in its history. And it has already happened before Dec 2017. Resistance block is not broken out sofar: Finally I would like to talk about the most strongest resistance block that the price action of Bitcoin is not able to break out since October 2019. This is a most strongest block that has been working some times as support and some times as resistance since January 2018. The BTC needs to break out this resistance bock then it can also break out the $10,000 resistance level. But in my point of view this is block is more important than the $10,000 resistance level. Conclusion: Sofar the support of the channel on the daily chart is holding the price action well. If this support will be retained then the price action can again start bullish move for the breakout. But once this support will be broken down then we can witness a further down rally up to the 200 SMA that is at $8000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by moon333
1
This Bitcoin Umbrella Chart Shows Amazing Performance Of BTCHi friends hope you're well today I'm going to show you an eye opening technical analysis and comparison between Bitcoin and S&P 500 to see which one is the best for investment. A drastic drop and recovery rally: I would like to take you to the daily chart to see the recent drastic drop in the both markets and the recovery rallies. First if we take a look at the chart of S&P 500 then it can be clearly observed that after strong a bearish move from Feb to March 2020 the price action started a bullish recovery rally. And from the lowest price of March up to the highest price of April 2020 the S&P 500 recovered 34.8%. On the other hand if we take a look at the Bitcoin chart then from the lowest price of March up to the highest of May 2020 the leading cryptocurrency has recovered 161%. Now if we switch back to the S&P 500 chart again then it can be clearly seen that after this recovery rally the price action is not able to move back to the previous level where it was in Feb 2020. The highest price of the Feb was $3393 and after this recovery rally price action has reached maximum up to $2,954. It's mean that the S&P 500 is still in 14.8% loss. On the other hand in the month of February the highest price of the Bitcoin was $10,495 and after this recovery rally the price action has reached up to $10,074. So the Bitcoin is in 4.2% Loss. But this difference is also showing that BTC has almost recovered. Is this V shape recovery is a call to “kiss of death” sell signal? The Bitcoin And the S&P 500 both have the V shape recovery rallies. And among the traders community it is considered in most of the times when the priceline recovers in V shape then it can take another drop to retest the previous low price level. And it is also called a “Kiss of death” sell signal. Now we need to understand how much these recovery rallies are firm and the price action will be dropped back or not. For this purpose we need to place the simple moving averages on the on daily chart of both markets with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200. We can see that priceline of S&P 500 has broken out the 25 and 50 simple moving averages but not able to cross up the 200 and 100 SMAs. Now the price action has bigger moving averages at the resistance and the smaller time period moving averages at the support. Therefore the pressure from the above level is more than the pressure from the downside. The strongest support that the price action has is the 50 simple moving average but the 50 SMA is already moving down. On the other hand if we take a look at the Bitcoin chart then the price action of BTC has crossed up all the simple moving averages. And at this time it has the support off all these four SMAs. The 25 simple moving average has formed the golden cross with all other simple moving averages and 50 SMA is moving up to form the golden cross with 100 and 200 SMAs. Once the 50 simple moving average will be able to form a golden cross with 200 SMA then it can produce a powerful bullish Divergence. Because the golden cross between 50 and 200 simple moving averages is considered as a strong buying signal among the traders community. And this cross can be a big call for the bulls to jump in to the market. Therefore the Bitcoin has more strong supports on the daily chart as compared to the S&P 500. The SMAs on weekly chart: Now if we switch to the long-term weekly chart and observe the same simple moving averages then we can see that after breaking down the 200 simple moving average the S&P 500 broke out the 200 SMA again and at this time it is struggling at 100 simple moving average resistance. After this moving average price action will have 50 and 25 simple moving average resistance levels to be crossed up. Moreover the 25 SMA is moving down to form a death cross with the 50 SMA that can stop the price action to cross up the 100 simple moving average resistance even the price action can drop down again. On the other side if we watch the Bitcoin weekly chart then the price action of Bitcoin has crossed up all the simple moving averages and at this time it is above 50 SMA support. And the 25 SMA is moving up to form a golden cross with 50 SMA. And this golden cross can produce a powerful bullish rally. Bitcoin 10 year umbrella chart: Now I would like to take you to my Bitcoin 10 years umbrella chart. After e a lot of research and hard work I have developed this chart. This chart has 10 candle sticks and each candlestick represents a complete one year. With each candlestick I have mentioned the below information: 1. Year of candle stick. 2. Profit percentage from opening price to highest price 3. Profit percentage from opening price to closing price The opening price shows the price of the Bitcoin when the candlestick was started in January. And the highest price represents the highest price that was achieved by the price action in that year. And the closing price shows when the candlestick was closed or ended in the month of December. In above Bitcoin umbrella chart you can easily observe the profit ratio in percentage of each year from opening to highest price and from opening price to closing price. And at the end I have also mentioned the grand total the profit ratio from opening to highest price and from opening to closing price. And you will be amazed to see that the grand total from opening to highest price of 10 years is 17915%. And the grand profit total from opening price to closing price is 7597%. It's mean that a lay-man who even didn’t know anything about the trading. And he would have bought the Bitcoin when the year was started and sold the BTC when the year was ended and he would have been repeating the same practice for 10 years then he would be at 7597% profit after 10 years. No other asset or market can produce such a huge gains like the Bitcoin did. S&P 500 10 year umbrella chart: Now let's move to the S&P 500 10 years umbrella chart. And you will find a very big difference between the profit ratio that has been generated by the S&P 500 and the Bitcoin. As the grand total from opening price to highest price of 10 years is 314.5%. And the grand total from opening price to closing price of these 10 years is 189.5%.That proves that there is no comparison between the performance of Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Even though the S&P 500 is the index that is the most out performing among all other indexes and markets. Conclusion: As the most outperforming asset the Bitcoin has proven itself not even the king of all cryptocurrencies but also the master of all assets. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
Bitcoin Again Going Parabolic To Hit Upto $300KHi friends hope you are well today we will see how the Bitcoin turns parabolic after every halving event. For this purpose I would like to take you back to the first halvening event of 2012. And on weekly long-term chart we can observe that after the halving event the price action went strong bullish and moved in parabolic way for next one year. This powerful bullish rally was up to 10,000% and that was really a big move. After achieving the highest price the BTC dropped down again and in June 2014 the Bitcoin showed a recovery rally. That was the time when the people would be thinking that it it will be recovered back to the highest price that was $1163 at that time. But the price action moved down again and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. After this retracement the price action formed a double bottom on the strongest support of 200 simple moving average and turned bullish again. Parabolic move after halving event of 2016: Now if we take a look at the halving event of 2016. Then after this event the price action againg turned parabolic bullish and produced more than 3000% gains. After achieving the highest price the leading cryptocurrency dropped down again and in the month of June 2019 the price action again showed a recovery move up to $13880. And this was the time when we were thinking that the Bitcoin has finally started recovery rally and it will be moved back up to the previous highest price level. That is the $20,000 but the price action of Bitcoin again moved down and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time we can see that the priceline has again formed a double bottom on the 200 simple moving average on this weekly chart like it was happened back in 2015. Parabolic move after halving event of 2020: Now after this double bottom formation on 200SMA the price action has gone through the 2020 halving event. Therefore we can expect another parabolic move by the priceline of BTC. If we notice the previous bullish move after the halving event of 2016 then that was 70% less profitable than the bullish move that was happened after the halving event of 2012. So if we expect the 70% less profit that was produced after the halving event of 2016 then the BTC can easily achieve $100,000 price level. However if the Bitcoin again produces 3000% profit than it can reach upto $300K. Bitcoin is parabolic since came into existence: Now if we take a look at the complete price action of Bitcoin since it has been came into existence. Then it can be clearly seen that the Bitcoin is moving parabolic. And it has never truned bearish, because we can see after achieving every highest price level the Bitcoin retraces between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. And the retracement upto 0.786 Fibonacci level can be called a correction move. Therefore we can say that after achieving every highest price in the history of Bitcoin the Bitcoin starts a correction for the next bullish move. The most important factor behind this parabolic move: On this weekly chart we can also observe that the basic reason for the parabolic bullish move of the Bitcoin is the 200 simple moving average. As this moving average is also moving in parabolic shape and not letting the price action to break down this 200SMA support. And this time again the priceline has hit at this support level and took bounce for the next bullish move and the 200 SMA is lifting up the Bitcoin price level in the parabolic way. Conclusion: After every halving event the BTC turns parabolic. If this happens again then Bitcoin can easily reach the $100K to $300K price level within next 2 to 3 years. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
Why The Bitcoin Dropping Fast Before The Bitcoin Halving 2020Halvening event of 2012: Hi friends hope you're well and welcome to the new update on Bitcoin. Today we will try to understand why the Bitcoin is dropping fast just before the halvening event. In order to understand this situation we need to move back to 2012 to watch the history of the Bitcoin halving. Then we can observe that when we had the Bitcoin halvening event in November 2012 then BTC started dropping down in August 2012 this drop was started from 18th August to 20th August 2012. And this was a steep waterfall crash after that the Bitcoin recovered but just before the having the Bitcoin dropped down again in October 2012. After that we have witnessed a strong bullish rally of more than 10000% for next one and a half year. Halvening event of 2016: Then in halvening event of 2016 we can notice that before the halving BTC started dropping down in Jun 2016. This drop was started from 19th Jun to 23rd Jun 2012. And this was another steep waterfall crash like we had before the halving of 2012. After that the Bitcoin recovered but just before the halving the BTC dropped down again from 3rd July to 2nd Aug 2016. After that we have witnessed a strong bullish rally of more than 3000% for next one and a half year. Halvening event of 2020: Now in current halvening event of 2020 we can again notice that before the halving BTC started dropping down from Feb to March 2020. This drop was from 15th Feb to 13th Mar 2020. And this was another waterfall crash like we had before the halving of 2012 and 2016. After that the leading cryptocurrency recovered back. But just before the halving the BTC has started dropping down again same as like before in 2012 and 2016. After this drop we can expect a long term bullish rally. This combination of these indicators has given final sell signals: As in my previous posts I told you that I am looking at the movement of BTC using the combination of these indicators to observe the bullish and bearish trend . 1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator. 2nd: Moving average convergence divergence (MACD). 3rd: Stochastic indicator. Ater placing these three indicators I came to know that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a specific pattern for the bearish rally. The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator is a powerful indicator that shows that the priceline is in bullish or bearish trend . When it turns green it means that Bitcoin is in bullish trend and when it turns red color then it means that Bitcoin is in bearish trend . Now after noticing closely the daily chart it can be observe that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the BTC turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be witnessed form 24th of October to 25th of November 2019. Then from 23rd of Jan up to 13th of March 2020. And if we see the current situation then the vervoort is again in green color and giving indication that we are in bullish trend , and the MACD has given a sell signal and after that we have received the buying signal and at this time the MACD has given the sell signal. Therefore we can expect that this time the bitcoin again follow the same pattern that it is following since October 2019. And it will start a bearish rally. This time I have also placed the relative strength index (RSI) oscillator. Then we can also observe that whenever we receive the final sell signal by the MACD and the BTC starts bearish rally then the RSI also visits the oversold zone. Therefore we can expect that if the Bitcoin will start a proper bearish move then the RSI will also again visit the oversold zone. Now up to what extent the Bitcoin can drop: Now the question is that if the Bitcoin start a bearish move then up to what extent the BTC will be dropped. For that first of all we need to watch out for an up channel formation that the Bitcoin has formed on the daily chart. This up channel is same as like the previous up channel formation that was formed from December 2019 up Feb 2020. And after breaking down the support of previous channel the price action turned very strong bearish and easily broke down the simple moving averages supports with the time period of 50, 100 and 200. And now it has a again started another up channel from March up till now. Here we can observe after a very strong attempt to break out the resistance of the channel finally the price action is likely to be filled in breaking out and now it is dropping down to hit the support of the channel. Here we have the 100 and 200 simple moving averages supports at the same level where we have the support of the channel and these supports are at $8,000. Then we have the 50 simple moving average support just below the support of the channel. And the 50 simple moving average is moving up to form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages. If the 50 SMA will continue this upward move to form the golden then the priceline will not break down the support of this channel, however if the 50 simple moving average will not continue its upward move and it will start moving down then the price action will easily break down the 100 in 200 SMAs and the support of the channel. The Bitcoin has failed in re-testing the resistance block as support: We have already seen that on the daily chart the priceline was trying to breakout the resistance block from $9,000 to $9500 level. This is the most strongest support and resistance block that the Bitcoin could not breakout since after the drop off Dec 2017. Once in the month of February 2020 we have witnessed that a Bitcoin broke out this resistance block. After breaking out this resistance block the Priceline tried to retest previous resistance as support but this re-test was unsuccessful and the priceline dropped all the way down up to $4000. Now again the priceline Now I again the priceline of leading cryptocurrency has repeated the same move. The Bitcoin broke out the resistance of this block from 8th to 9th May 2020 and after breaking out the BTC tried to retest the previous resistance as support but again it has failed to retest this resistance block as support and dropped down. The Bitcoin is likely to be failed in breaking out the resistance of channel on long term chart: Now I would like to divert your attentions toward the down channel that has been formed on the long-term weekly chart. And we can see here that the priceline was also trying to break out the resistance of this down channel. But so far it is not successful in breaking out the resistance. If the Bitcoin will break down the support of the channel that has been formed on the daily chart then it may retest the 100 simple moving average support that we have within the down channel on this weekly chart. And this 100 SMA support is at this time at $7,100. If the price action will breakdown the 100 simple moving every support then it may retest the 200 SMA support and that is at $5700 at this time. And in case of breaking down the 200 simple moving average the Bitcoin may re-test the support of this down channel and that is at $4,800. However I'm not expecting as that much powerful downward move. In worst situation I'm expecting that the Bitcoin will take a bullish bounce from the 200 simple moving average support as we have already discussed in my previous articles that this is the strongest support ever in the history of Bitcoin that has been never broken down since it is appeared. However the further downward move depends in breaking down the support of an up channel on daily chart. Conclusion: All the chart patterns and the indicators are giving bearish signals, therefore the priceline of Bitcoin may turn bearish on short-term. But on long-term after the halving event we can expect a very strong bullish rally for at least 2 years. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
5
This Is Why The Bitcoin Is Going To Hit $300K After HalveningHi friends hope you are well. Today I'll show you the most significant move by the Bitcoin that can lead it to hit 300K. But before that I would like to show you some developments on the small time charts because these moves are interconnected with the biggest move that I'm expecting in the next one or two years. The bull flags on daily chart: As in my last article we have observed that the leading cryptocurrency is aggressively forming a different bull flag on the daily char. And in previous post we were expecting the 3rd bull flag. At that time the candlesticks were being consolidated to form the next bull flag. And now we can see that the priceline has moved up and now it is confirmed that the third bull flag has been formed. Now after reaching the $10,000 level the price action may consolidate at this level to form the next bull flag or it will move a little bit more up and then consolidate. The Bitcoin may re-test the resistance block as support: We have already seen that on the daily chart the priceline was trying to breakout the resistance block from $9,000 to $9500 level. This is the most strongest support and resistance block that the Bitcoin could breakout since after the drop off Dec 2017. Once in the month of February 2020 we have witnessed that a Bitcoin broke out this resistance block. After breaking out this resistance block the Priceline tried to retest previous resistance as support but this re-test was unsuccessful and the priceline dropped down all the way up to $4000. Now again the priceline is breaking out this resistance level. The current candlestick is opened above this block. And once the complete candlestick will be opened and closed above this bock like the priceline did this in the month of February then the first step of the breakout will be confirmed. But the final confirmation for breakout will be received when price action of BTC will retest this previous resistance as support and after a successful retest priceline will be moved up from here. Bitcoin is likely to be failed in breaking out the up channel resistance: On the daily chart the priceline has formed an up channel. That was started from 13th of March 2020. And this time the price action of BTC is trying to hit hard to break out the resistance of this channel. At this time we have the 3rd candlestick that is hitting at the resistance to have a breakout. Before this we had candlestick of 30th April that was reached up to $9,485 at the resistance of the channel for the breakout. Then the price action reached at $10,000 level on 7th and 8th May 2020. And now there was a strong hope that the priceline will break out the resistance. But again the price action is likely to be consolidated at this level. Now there are two possibilities that the priceline may form a bull flag at this level and move up to break out the resistance or move down again to re-test the support of this channel that is almost at $8,500. This combination of indicators can give us best signal for bearish move: As in my previous post I told you that I am using the combination of three indicators to watch the bullish and bearish trend of BTC on daily chart. 1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator. 2nd: MACD custom indicator multiple time frame , this is the same MACD indicators that we use normally but this indicator shows the buying and sell signals with crosses. 3rd: Stochastic indicator. Ater placing these three indicators I came to know that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a certain pattern for the correction rally or bearish move.The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator is a powerful indicator that shows whether the priceline is in bullish or bearish trend . When it turns green it means that we are in bullish trend and when it turns in red color then it means that we are in bearish trend . Now after observing closer the daily chart it can be seen that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives the sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the leading cryptocurrency turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be witnessed form 24th of October to 25th of November 2019. Then from 23rd of Jan up to 13th of March 2020. And if we see the current situation then the vervoort is again in green color and giving indication that we are in bullish trend , and the MACD has given a sell signal and after that we have received the buying signal and at this time the MACD has turned weak bullish so its mean that it is turning bearish. Once it will give a complete sell signal with stochastic bear cross then we can expect that the BTC will again repeat the same move and start a bearish rally. The down channel on long term: On the long term weekly chart the Bitcoin has formed a down channel and at this time the price action of BTC is trying to breakout the resistance of this channel. Once the bearish move will be started then the Bitcoin can retest the 100 simple moving average support at $7100, or the 200 simple moving average support is at $5700. But in my opinion if the price action will be dropped from here then first it will retest the support of an up channel that has been formed on the daily chart and that support is around at $8500 once that support will be broken down then we can expect the further downward move upto 100 SMA and then 200 simple moving average on the weekly chart. The most significant signal is going to be appeared soon that can lead the BTC price to 300K: Now I want to show you the most significant signal that is going to be appeared after the Bitcoin halving that can lead the BTC price upto $30000. For better understanding we need to see the history of this signal so let's move back to the first Bitcoin halving event in 2012. The Bitcoin halvening 2012: For this purpose I have used long term weekly chart and placed the four simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100, and 200. In 2012 the 100 and 200 simple moving averages were not available therefore we will find this signal using only 25 and 50 SMAs, then we can see that just before the Bitcoin halving the 25 simple moving average form the golden cross with 50 simple moving average then after the Bitcoin halving we had the strong supports these two SMAs. Further in July 2013 the 100 simple moving average was also appeared below the 25 and 50 simple moving averages. Here we had a complete a opened alligator mouth formed by these three simple moving averages. And all these SMAs lifted the price action up very aggressively and the Bitcoin started more than 10000% bullish rally and produced ROI (return on investment) with 1 : 10K ratio within one year. The Bitcoin halvening 2016: Now let's move forward to the next halvening event in the year of 2016. Then we can see that just before the halvening the simple moving averages formed an opened alligator’s mouth for forming goden crosses with each other, as we can see that the 200 smple moving average was below all other simple moving averages then 100 moving average was above 200 moving average, then the 50 SMA was above the 100 SMA and the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 was above all four SMAs. And after halvening all these simple moving averages lifted the Bitcoin up very aggressively and the price line of BTC produced more than 3000% return on investment ratio within one and a half year. The Bitcoin halvening 2020: Now when almost three days are left in the 2020 halvening event then we can observe that almost an opened alligator mouth by these four simple moving averages is formed. Only the golden cross between 25 and 50 moving averages is due. Once the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 will cross up the 50 simple moving average then we will have the order of these moving averages like 25 simple moving average above all then we will have the 50 SMA below the 25 after that we will have the 100 simple moving average below 50 and the 200 SMA will be below all other SMAs. Then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed and after completion of this alligator mouth we can expect a really very powerful bullish rally that can be continued for next two years. If we compare the ROI ratio that was produced in the after 2016 halvening then it is 70% less than the ROI ratio that was produced after the halvening of 2012. As we have seen that in 2012 the return on investment ratio was more than 10000%. Now in order have an estimate the next ROI ratio we can expect 70% less ROI than the ROI after halvening of 2016. And in my point of view that will be very conservative approach. And in this way the next return on investment ratio would be e 1000%. Its mean that Bitcoin can easily hit $100,000. But it is also possible that the Bitcoin will produce up to 3000% rally as it has already produced after the previous halvening of 2016. And it this time it will be difficult for the moving averages to form a complete opened alligator mouth before the halving event. Because one candlestick is representing one week and there are only approximately 3 days are left in the next halving event. However it doesn't matter whether this alligator mouth will be oepened before the halvening or after. Whenever it will be formed it will produce a very powerful gleefully that can be continued for atleast next two years. Conclusion: On the daily time period chart if the price line of BTC will not break out the up channel and we will receive strong bearish signal by the MACD indicator then there are strong chances that the price action may start a correction rally, however on the long term the Bitcoin will be remain bullish and after having event it can turn more strong bullish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
4
Taking a long here after a great retracement.For B's Learning. Using some of the most basic features, right now was a good spot for a low Risk Vs Reward position. There is a long standing support close by since the March low, I will increase my position if it drops to the .78 Fib before support line is higher. I will follow just under the support line with my stop loss, currently a 2.75 Risk to reward. easy pickings. Will double position size If .78 Fib is touched pre-support line. Dont trade risky set ups, be patient. be calm, learn the market, know your limits. use basic indicators with a bit of knowledge of overall market sentiment. this is a simple process. trade Fib levels, trade major support lines. potentially can ride this trade for a few days into the halving if all goes well. Stop loss will be set tight, but in a normal market i would take profit at given levels. BTC is looking a bit unpredictable atm, so always be waiting for the Market Movers to hunt your stop loss before any significant moves. If you can wait for a bit shake always do so.
Long
by cazzaxx