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Bitcoin post-Halving: Possible ScenariosFor those of you who don't know me, I have two obsessions in life: AI and cryptocurrencies. Not necessarily in this order. With the BTC Halving, I decided to explore the possible future scenarios—and to analyze the behavior of BTC during the past halvings. Here are some observations—of course, I can be wrong: 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬: Post-halving, the price trajectory has shown notable patterns: • After the first halving in 2012, BTC price skyrocketed by approximately 9,900%, peaking about a year later. • The second halving in 2016 led to a price increase of about 2,946%, taking 17 months to reach its peak. • Following the third halving in 2020, the increase was more subdued at around 679%, with the peak occurring 17 months later. 𝐄𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐲𝐧𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬: The form of the price line across these halvings demonstrates a market that is evolving and becoming more resilient. Each post-halving period shows a gradual slowing down of volatility and price spikes, suggesting an increasing influence of institutional investors who tend to have longer investment horizons and more strategic approaches. This trend indicates a shift from speculative retail behavior to a more stabilized and mature market. 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: In the short run, there should be a correction. This might lead the price of BTC below $60,000. However, it seems that the cycle wasn't complete, and the sideways movement right before the halving was just a short "test" that resulted in a short accumulation phase. Since the cycle wasn't completed, BTC should at least reach $128,000 in the coming months; however, be aware that the real downfall might still be yet to come!
by ro_ma_
3
BTC: Pullback in UptrendTrade setup : Price remains in an Uptrend. It got rejected 2x at $72K level but as long as it stays above GETTEX:64K (prior swing low), its uptrend is intact. We would be buyers near that GETTEX:64K support area, with +15% upside potential back to ATH of $74K. Stop Loss (SL) level at $62.7K. The recent approvals of 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs are working in BTC’s favor. Wanna know which altcoins will benefit from BTC and ETH rise? Read our research report. Trend : Downtrend on Short-Term basis and Uptrend on Medium- and Long-Term basis. Momentum is Mixed as MACD Line is below MACD Signal Line (Bearish) but RSI ~ 50 (Neutral). Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is GETTEX:64K then $56K - $59K. The nearest Resistance Zone is $74K, then $79K.
Long
by altFINS
BTCUSDT 917 PIPS LONG ORDER READ DESCRIPTIONBitcoin (BTC) is currently witnessing heightened demand, particularly within the price range of $60,200 to $64,800, indicating a zone where significant institutional investors, commonly referred to as whales, are injecting substantial capital. This influx of large orders suggests a bullish sentiment among these influential investors, which in turn signals confidence in Bitcoin's potential for future growth and adoption. In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a downward trend, attributed to the filling of the CME gap area. Such price corrections are a common occurrence in cryptocurrency markets and are driven by market dynamics rather than fundamental shifts in the underlying technology or adoption of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has solidified its position as one of the most trustworthy cryptocurrencies in the market. With a market capitalization of approximately $1.29 trillion and a total supply capped at 21 million coins, Bitcoin offers scarcity and inherent value, distinguishing it from traditional fiat currencies. The cryptocurrency's robust trading volume, which has reached $50,627,120,388 in the last 24 hours, underscores its liquidity and active participation in the market. This liquidity is crucial for ensuring efficient price discovery and facilitating large transactions without causing significant price slippage. A significant event in the recent past was the purchase of 8,000 bitcoins by an anonymous group of whales. Such large-scale acquisitions by influential entities often indicate a strong bullish sentiment for Bitcoin and can serve as a positive signal for other investors in the market. Technical indicators on the weekly timeframe also suggest a strong buy sentiment for Bitcoin. These indicators, which include moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), provide insights into market trends and investor sentiment over longer timeframes. Bitcoin's resilience, scarcity, and institutional interest make it an attractive asset for investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency market. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin appears favorable, supported by increasing adoption, institutional participation, and a robust network of developers and supporters. Moreover, Bitcoin's decentralized nature, censorship resistance, and transparent ledger make it an appealing store of value and medium of exchange, especially in regions facing economic instability or currency devaluation. In recent years, Bitcoin has gained mainstream acceptance as an investable asset, with numerous institutional investors, corporations, and even governments allocating funds to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty has become increasingly recognized, particularly in the wake of unprecedented monetary stimulus measures adopted by central banks worldwide. The emergence of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class has led to the development of sophisticated financial products and services, including Bitcoin futures, options, and ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), further expanding its accessibility and liquidity. However, Bitcoin still faces challenges, including regulatory scrutiny, scalability concerns, and environmental criticisms related to its energy consumption. Efforts to address these challenges are underway, with ongoing research and development focused on improving Bitcoin's scalability, privacy, and sustainability. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin's decentralized architecture and resilient network continue to attract developers, entrepreneurs, and innovators, driving further advancements in the ecosystem. Overall, Bitcoin's value proposition as a decentralized, digital currency with a finite supply and global accessibility remains compelling, positioning it as a transformative force in the future of finance and technology.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by MOAZAM1133
BTC 90K is not for away!We have entered the second quarter where markets will make sharp movements. Determining the ranges beforehand is a master's work and not accurate. However, I think the points I have highlighted in blue have the potential to create a nice range. After the deviations here, I think the price could suddenly reach 90K. Before this 90K move, maybe we will make deviations in the red boxes and see a retest to the 0.5 point. In this case, I want to build a long position with 3% risk by adding another 1.5% to my position.
Long
by XU3Trades
BTC Channel down Broken upIf we look at 4 hour timeframe, Expanding channel up support able to hold bearish wave, and BTC already success break channel down. This is a good news for bullish, not only for BTC, but also for all alt coin. We have 74.055 previous high as target, with maximum target at fibonaci 1.414 at 82.285 If this channel up broken down, we have 59.800 as next fibonacci support to hold bearish movement. Don't forget to support this idea to get a quick notification of any updates. Happy trading, May profit be with you.
Long
by AzrulAzir
1
BTC: Pullback in UptrendTrade setup : Price is in an Uptrend. Price broke above SWB:69K -$70 resistance zone, making yet another new all-time-high (ATH) of $73,780, but failed to hold as investors chose to take some profit. There was also a bearish RSI Divergence as price made a Higher High but RSI made a Lower High, which implies less momentum strength on the most recent upswing. Now we look for the right entry opportunity in Uptrend. We wait for price to either 1) break back above $70K to signal continuation of uptrend, with +14% upside potential to $79K next, or 2) pull back near GETTEX:59K support for another swing trade entry in Uptrend with +15% upside potential back to $70K. The approvals of 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs are working in BTC’s favor. Wanna know which altcoins will benefit from BTC and ETH rise? Read our research report. Trend : Uptrend across all time horizons (Short- Medium- and Long-Term). Momentum is Bullish but inflecting. MACD Line is above MACD Signal Line and RSI is above 55 but momentum may have peaked since MACD Histogram bars are declining, which suggests that momentum is weakening. Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $56K - GETTEX:59K , then $50K. The nearest Resistance Zone is SWB:69K - $70K, then $79K.
Long
by altFINS
BTC: Pullback in UptrendTrade setup : Price is in an Uptrend. First attempt to break above SWB:69K -$70 has failed. That’s an all-time-high (ATH), which is a significant resistance area. Price got very overbought (RSI > 80) and was rejected, pulling back as low as $59K. It’s likely to pause here and consolidate around this area, before resuming its uptrend. Now we wait for price to either 1) break above $70K to signal continuation of uptrend, with upside to $79K-$80K next, or 2) pull back near $60K support for another swing trade entry in Uptrend. The approvals of 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs are working in BTC’s favor. Wanna know which altcoins will benefit from BTC and ETH rise? Read our research report. Trend : Uptrend across all time horizons (Short- Medium- and Long-Term). Momentum is Bullish but inflecting. MACD Line is above MACD Signal Line and RSI is above 55 but momentum may have peaked since MACD Histogram bars are declining, which suggests that momentum is weakening. Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $56K - GETTEX:59K , then $50K. The nearest Resistance Zone is SWB:69K - $70K, then $79K.
Long
by altFINS
I think we're going straight to 80k!Traders, The demand for BTC from these ETFs has been insane. The last I read on this about 2 weeks ago was that ETFs were demanding over 12x what miners could supply. And this is still pre-halving. Add to this the facts that only 24% of BTC remains liquid and there is continued institutional demand in other countries opening up and you can quickly understand from some simple math that Bitcoin is in the beginning stages of a massive supply shock. Even multi-year resistance levels are blown up like they are nothing. I honestly have not seen technicals rekt to the degree they are recently. Fundamentals far outweigh technicals at this point. However, we are still going to chart, observe and denote technicals where they may be of use to support current fundamentals. In this case, I wanted to demonstrate what the technicals are showing more recently. We have here an inverse H&S pattern. Our target ends up being 80k which intersects exactly with another ascending TL I have mapped here. Honestly, I think we could go straight to 80k without any sort of pullback at this point. We did not pullback at our multi-year support/resistance from 2019. If we were going to pullback, that is where we might have done it. Another point of possible pullback is 70k. We're almost there rn and there is no signs that we are going to stop. I think 80k is in the cards and we didn't even get a pullback and retest of our 48k neckline! I am absolutely amazed by this. Then again, I have never really witnessed a supply shock in real time. Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Bitcoin Update: The bull market has been startedBitcoin has initiated a robust uptrend since November 2022, with its current trading price nearing its previous all-time high at $61,000. At this critical juncture, two potential scenarios emerge: Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin could breach the $60,000 to $70,000 range, potentially driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), thus bypassing a retest. This trajectory could propel Bitcoin to surpass $100,000, with projected targets ranging between $154,000 to $173,000. Bearish Scenario: Alternatively, Bitcoin may face rejection at its current level, leading to a decline towards support levels at $41,000 and $30,000. This downturn could prompt a retest of the $60,000 level.
by farhadnmd
BTC: Approaching ResistanceTrade setup : Price is in an Uptrend. Price broke back above $45K to signal resumption of an Uptrend and is approaching our near-term target of $50K. Now we wait for price to either 1) break above $50K to signal continuation of uptrend, or 2) pull back near $45K support for a swing entry in Uptrend with upside potential back to $50K. The approvals of 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs may finally be working in BTC’s favor. Wanna know which altcoins will benefit from BTC and ETH rise? Read our research report. Trend : Uptrend across all time horizons (Short- Medium- and Long-Term). Momentum is Bullish (MACD Line is above MACD Signal Line and RSI is above 55). Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $45K (previous resistance), then $40.5K. The nearest Resistance Zone is $50K.
Long
by altFINS
BTC Drop loadingI wasn't expecting the price to rise so much, but doesn't matter. As we has seen lot of times, it's squeezing some shorts. And as always, the higher the squeeze, the deeper the drop. I don't think it will broke above previous high (but i can be wrong), but what is sure is that is going to drop soon. It's clearly a bull trap, and it can go up a bit more before dropping. 41k is my main target, and invalidation will be clean break above 49k. Most important, don't long now.
Short
by SaliJournal