Bitcoin vs Nasdaq for this cycleSo many people say bitcoin is like high beta nasdaq, but that is not the case if you plot the historical chart.
Bitcoin just goes up against everything on the long term.
Now if we compare to previous cycles, and apply the fibonacci retracements, we can see the previous cycle top was BTC = 1.618 times de Nasdaq 100 index.
Assuming the same fibo retracement, the top for this cycle would take us around 7 times nasdaq 100, which would be around 140k USD at current prices. Now depending on what nasdaq does, and assuming it goes up to previous highs, we would be talking about 150k USD.
Now, I think this is a pretty conservative estimate given that we are in a global debt crisis, and that bitcoin will position itself as a neutral risk-off asset for investors who do not want to take other risks due to tariffs, deflation, debt refinancing etc.
I think a better estimate is around 10-12 times nasdaq, which could take us to 250-300k USD top, which matches the estimate when comparting btc to gold (see my previous idea).
