Somewhat bearish towards BTC mid 2021The Price of Bitcoin has just been in an insane bull-ride for the last roughly 160 days. I belive it is possible that the end is during 2021.
When I say the end, I dont necessarily mean a drop to zero, but a recession.
Abstract
If our financial system is to take an historical hard punch to the guts, then yes this is 100% plausible. If not I do not believe Bitcoin is going to have a new Huge Bull run in 2021.
The reason for my belives are as follows:
1.Interest rate
Interest Rates are close to zero in alot of countries. This insinuates that the economy needs support. But to get back to normal, interest rates must increase.
I believe businesses, households and the economy in general is now very sensetive to an increase. Therefore increasing it too much to fast, will give us some what drastic results.
Increasing the interest rates makes money a little more scars, so prices will/ Should decrease, also including stocks and financial markets.
Intrestrate > 0, -> Affordance < 0, Market Prices < 0. Inflation < 0 And therefore BTC < 0.
2. A decrease in money supply.
Our financial system has been on "life-support" since march 2020. I dont know if states, and coutries has taken too much water over their head, or if they even know what they have caused. If we are going to have a well functioning sosiaty agian, then a decreesing moneysupply would have to be in orther. I dont know at what paste it will happen, but I belive that it is quite delicate and sencetive. Therefor a change in this will also affect the market.
A combination with a decrease in money supply, and the interest rate I believe can cause a drastic shock. The reason for this is that money becomes more scars. (Less money).
Since though lower interest rates and an increase in money supply should help the economy, in that way the households should ree-use the money in the normal basket of goods, I do not think this is the case.. I think what we have seen so far is:
a) Loans increasing
b) The stock market increasing
c) Consumer goods increasing
d) Real estate increasing
But if it is done, with extreme caution, I believe a calm recession is in order. But I believe it's going to be difficult due to international relations in finance and economy
3. Elliot Wave theory
"The 160-days trend" has definitely just ended according to the Elliot Wave theory. That is not to say it will engage in a new trend, but this one, I now consider over. The theory reflects and quite simply states that the pure and natural market psychology often have a tendency to move in waves of 5. It is intuitively connected to how we react in different situations, though we can not draw a conclusion that Bitcoin is not going to move higher because of this. It simply tells us that what i wil call huge "160-day trend" is over, and wil now engage in a "Random-Walk", or new trend.
4. What goes up must come down.
Newton's third law of motion states; "what goes up must come down." To an extent this applies to the stock market as well.
Theoretically the price could move to infinity, Though I do not believe this is likely, either prectical or empirical. Also seen historicaly I think newtos third law applies. When ever something pumped up, it's almost always bound to fall down. Maybe it is an natural error in our system not yet fixed, and therefore I dont see why it should be any different this time. The rather sad truth behind newton's third law is that the higher up you throw the harder impact it's going to have on its way down.
5. Gold effect
Often in bad financial times, we run to gold, real estate, and other physical objects that serves as a store of value. Bitcoin could give or have the same effect. One could then argue that it has to be with trust, since Bitcoin is not backed by anything physical, but again so is the dollar. (Not backed by anything). So if interest rates increese, and money supply stops. Or if money supply increases. its going to affect the economy bad eighter way.
Since though our goverment we dearly trust, gives us the currency we are obliged to belive has value, now could prove to fail us, how would we react? The answer to this could very well be Bitcoin. Therefore it's quite difficult to say. Some might call me naive, but I do not think this will be the case.
