Bitcorn
Naked Bitcoin through AprilStrictly price action indicators.
Bitcoin is in the midst of a full on bull cycle.
Don't short BTC.
Expect a more than likely touch of the 21 EMA, and a possible touch of the 50 EMA.
Don't expect anything below $42k unless you are expecting a big correction. I don't think it needs one here.
The most bullish outlook has Bitcoin retesting that upper trend line at the 2.618 extension by early march, which would be a doubling in price in just around 3 weeks which is hard for even myself to imagine.
I am looking for almost 100k by end of April.
$600k BitcoinDon't look at me,
talk to the chart, bro.
The chart says what the chart says.
I used fibonacci extensions to create this unquestionable chart.
BTC Acending Triangle, Still Bullish For Now, Re-Target $41000BTC just nailed my last target down around $37.6k ! Please give that chart a like if you can. Now if we hold here and continue to bring the bulls back we will ride the trendline of the triangle back up into the red area. In the upper part of the triangle things could get wild and shook up. This is typically a bearish pattern but I am not predicting what will happen in there just yet. I have an upper target around $40-41k. As always, this is pure speculation of probabilities and not financial advice.
DXY tells all. The DXY appears to be picking up some steam indicating BITCOIN could be looking at a move to the downside in the near future.
You might be thinking, “wait”.. How is the dollar pumping after the FED increased the MONEY SUPPLY by over 30% in the last 12 months?”.
I asked the same questions, did a little digging -and the reasons I found are pretty interesting and incredibly bullish for bitcoin.
REASON #1: HIGHER TREASURY YIELDS
This week's US dollar move coincided with a 20 basis point move in 10-year yields higher to 1.115%. That boosts yield differentials in the US dollar's favor on many fronts. I think some of the move this week was on bond hedges and I'm curious to see how the dollar performs when yields stabilize, but the rates market is a spot to watch very closely.
The US FED RESERVE
The dollar will go wherever the Fed does, and the Fed will follow inflation. Already the talk from the central bank is changing. Less than a month ago they were contemplating more QE or lengthening the average maturity of purchases. This week, Clarida and Evans were talking about timelines for tapering bond purchases.
They've been strident in forecasting no rate rate hikes into 2024 but that always comes with a caveat about inflation. They have been talking tough about allowing inflation to run hot and looking through temporary climbs but when they're seeing 3% year-over-year inflation, will they hit the panic button? Their track record for consistency isn't inspiring.
TECHNICALS:
I prefer the Bloomberg Dollar Index to the DXY because it's trade-weighted. As you can see here, it's challenging the 2018 low after a one-way 14% move since the March high.
That's a big move.
I don't think this is a base to build a multi-year dollar bull market but at the very least there's a case for a bounce. If the DXY is your bag, the chart isn't significantly different, with the latest bounce coming from within 1% of the 2018 low.
Another spot to watch is USD/JPY. There's a downtrend from the March highs that's being challenged. If it breaks, it would be a stronger indication of a retracement phase.
DOLLAR POSITIONING
The consensus has a habit of being wrong. Bank of America's December institutional investor survey highlighted that selling the dollar was the second most-crowded trade. The CFTC FX data also shows a US$30-billion bet in the futures market against the dollar with euro and yen longs particularly crowded.
CORN 4hr PlanThe BEARS are hanging around looking for snacks.
Don't become a snack.
I have buy orders inside the RISING WEDGE pattern, with a planned escape if the bounce doesn't clear the 21 DEMA -and would also confirm the potential for further SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE.
BULLISH CASE:
This could end up becoming a "W" pattern, short term reversal -long term CONTINUATION.
FUNDING RATE (Bitmex) is trending negative, which is BULLISH.
Looking for PA to hold support above the local 81.8 FIB RT -if there is a candle body close above the 50%, that is a GREAT SIGN.
HOWEVER -there is much more BEARISH confluence right now.
A $20K BTC would be A GIFT, and a VERY WELCOME one.
BEARISH CASE:
DXY was looking very bullish heading into the weekend
TOTAL MKCP is not getting much volume, bouncing between $961BB and $1.06TT
Bearish PRICE STRUCTURE -low volume.
PA is meandering just above a crucial support, a break below will flip my bias to BEARISH (short term)
Plan not set in stone, it is only SATURDAY -but we have been getting some serious PA over the weekend when the CME has been closed.
Also, the DXY heading into the weekend was looking pretty BULLISH.
That chart and idea en route.
What are you looking at? BULLISH OR BEARISH?
JNY
What's Next Bitcorn?I think the least likely scenario is to go back up, but it's possible so I have addressed that target. I think heading down to the $25k level would make logical sense if we see continued pressure downward. The odd ball scenario is the sideways shuffle, following the volume profile into a consolidation range. Proper stop loss and risk assessment encouraged. This is not trading advice.
Bitcoin Upward MegaphoneBitcoin seems to be consolidating before the next big move. It looks like we might just be consolidating before moving up again. I think we have room to run to $30k, but we also have room for a pull back. I think we need to hold $17,800 to be safe. This is not financial advice.
BTC Neutral Formation, Waiting For Scalp Or ShakeoutBTC is forming a somewhat neutral pattern that should have potential for an 8% move to either side. A ton of these have been shakeouts lately and often we hit both targets. Considering the territory I will not try to predict at this point. Wait for a break of the formation. This is not financial advice.
BTC Potential ScenariosBitcoin is in an interesting position, seeking new highs and contemplating a retrace. I have some targets for each side of the break. I am semi-bearish and in a small short at the moment. I am aware of potential to the upside and give it a 40-45% chance before retrace. This is not trading advice.
Taking note of the possible next levelsBINANCE:BTCUSDT
It's been awhile since I've done a solid chart on BTC
I've been a longtime believer in this asset, hold some long term plus a separate active trading account.
Things are beautifully heating up. It's been a strange year for Bitcoin (but isn't it always?)
The crash in March was painful to experience in the moment, watching that Flash Crash. But it created a lucrative opportunity to buy-in at an 'on sale' price before the Halving.
Considering factors such as breaking out of a long term resistance, moving past the Halving, and institutional money not only coming in heavy, but advocating for Bitcoin as well- all help confirm
this market as Bullish for my portfolio.
I try not to look too long and hard into the Crystal Ball with Bitcoin. I love how well TA applies on Crypto charts so well, but that said I like to Keep It Simple.
While the volatility may scare some, it's always comforting knowing that if you sit tight, the bounce back will eventually reward you.
This chart just shows some simple points I'm marked based on simple long and mid term support/resistance points that were mapped out using Fib. retracement & Gann fan tools.
Thinking possible correct to areas around ~10,500, but also wouldn't be surprised to see u just run straight up towards the lower ~13000's
What does everyone feel about reaching the ATH? When will we get there, how much resistance will we run into along the way, and where do you think it'll end?
I'm a fan of the S2F model suggestions of ~70k by Fall 2021
We shall see.
Happy Trading!
Bitcoin RSI Up and Holding + Slightly Different ViewWe have some decent strength on the RSI! Dare we go long? Doesn't it look like a bull flag? Watch for a nice break and have a tight stop, the FED is printing infinite money and for now market manipulation is a big risk. If strength doesn't hold, down we go, please note the alternative path ;) This is not trading advice.