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Bitcoin Spike on DailyOne of my primary technical analysis trading tools is that of False Breakouts or as I identify them; Spikes . I have found that when prices moves quickly in one direction only to return in the opposite direction within the same or following candle this indicates a potential reversal with a high probability. The corollary to this concept is that if price does then break that "spike" bar the trend can be confirmed. The Spike I have been watching the price action of Bitcoin exceptionally close over the last few weeks as the 2023 bullish trend approached and has stubbornly held a major Resistance. On the first US market open trading day of 2024 Bitcoin made a push to break the recent consolidation. However, the following day Bitcoin price reacted with a nearly -10% drop. Such a daily move is not uncommon in Bitcoin but where and when it happened is significant. I operate under the logical thesis that if something is bullish... it should GO. There should be no such major rejections if the trend is strong. To have such a sudden rejection qualifies as a "Spike" and I created an indicator that identifies these for me to filter out the noise. That is exactly what happened at this point and place in Bitcoin price action. This spike bolsters my conviction that the 2023 bull trend of Bitcoin has reached its zenith. The Levels If this spike proves to be a bearish reversal then the supports I identify based on past price inflation and 50% Retracements are: 35,400 30,700 If price surpasses the high of this week significantly the next level of Resistance is the March 2022 high of 48,200: Expressing the Trade Contrary to popular memes there exists already Bitcoin based ETFs. Rather than deal with the theta decay aspect of options the symbol AMEX:BITI is the SHORT Bitcoin ETF. The price action is distorted but it also exhibited the Daily Spike price action. This instrument is the one I will use to express bearish trades on Bitcoin going forward. I talk about my Spikes as a trading concept often during my Weekly Livestreams here on Tradingview. You may also follow my last few years of Bitcoin price action analysis in the links below to see how we got here. Trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
6
Bitcoin - Take Advantage of the Exit Pump, While You Still CanThe pattern on Bitcoin is really similar to Ethereum, which I outline in a recent call: Ethereum - A Sucker's Rally Before The Bitter Winter The difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum is ETH has more than 50% upside available to hit its similarly-placed goalposts, while BTC is just another ~30%. Fundamentally, the problem for crypto bulls is that the 2021 bull run formed a Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) on CME Futures. The inner meaning of a BARR is that its the eternal top, and once the lows are taken, the trend is over. This is especially crucial to understand when a BARR manifests on regulated futures, because these futures are uniquely cash settled and do not require anyone to post spot as collateral to short, there are ETFs linked to CME price, miners are hedging their on-chain wallets with this product, and the day-to-day survival of crypto relies on the SEC/FBI/DOJ delaying the annihilation of iFinex/Bitfinex/Tether. Once the trend is over, getting a rip to sell into is really a blessing, because what comes after is some gapping and then the landslide doom pattern that delisted coins and garbage penny stocks follow for a long time afterwards. We're at the prelude to crypto entering the no-bounce territory, because they need to be eliminated for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). Governments need to issue their own coins on centralized blockchains in order to install worldwide the Chinese Communist Party's Zero-COVID social credit system, because they just love the CCP's things so much it amounts to a fetish. And the problem for humanity is that these digital currencies do very little that is positive, while consuming an unbelievable amount of physical technical resources to make the chips and even more resources to produce the power that's needed to win the mining lottery. SHA256 mining is a total joke because more miners being added to the network don't increase transactional throughput at all, or really even "security." It's just a life-or-death requirement for miners to keep up with the difficulty boosts to win the block reward lottery to keep putting these things online. And in China, where everything is corrupt because of Xi Jinping's CCP, flooding villages and cities to manipulate the supply of hydro to sell to mining outlets has been a common practice of the regime's officials for years. Even the Mekong has been impacted gravely by the rogue CCP's gluttony for electricity to fuel the crypto mining operations run and cut by the regime's cronies. Much of digital currency has been co-opted by the CCP via its United Front Work Department operations, and much is done through the Triad mafia itself. Just about everything in crypto and everyone who's anyone in crypto operate on Wechat, the CCP's erstwhile implementation of surveillance and social credit. This is important because the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners looms like The Reaper over Xi and the Party. Disaster and plague can take the regime down literally any day. At the same time, Xi can save himself by overthrowing the Party in a coup, Gorbachev style, literally any day. So the risks are huge. But right now, if you want to play this table at the international casino, then the trade is long, not short, with a target over the May of '22 pivots at $48,000 and an expectation that $50,000 will either not be touched, or will be wicked through to sweep stops that both close shorts and open longs. You have a clear breakout on Monthly and Weekly bars, with no retrace on lower bars, and this is why short = dead, until price reaches its upside target. Frankly, a brief interlude back to $34,000 would be quite the gift to go long on and mitigate underwater shorts with. You cannot short $48,000 unless a reversal pattern appears, because the trend is strong for the first time in more than a year. Digital currencies are something for you to have absolutely no faith in. You need to stay away from everything related to this. A huge amount of killing, human trafficking, and corruption operates via that community and its various blockchains, and the sins are both boundless and eternal. The sins are so huge that mankind's justice system, even in the future, will not be able to settle the blocks that update the real ledger in this Cosmos.
Long
by LordWrymouth
1
Ethereum - A Sucker's Rally Before The Bitter WinterWhoever is shorting crypto right now probably has a death wish. And this isn't because there's going to be some new paradigm replacement of the USD or because institutions finally see the value of digital currency BECAUSE BLACKROCK ETF. It's because Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other chains are going to zero, because they're in the way of the advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies, which are needed to underpin the worldwide roll out of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system. You shouldn't have faith in digital currency. There's nothing decentralized about them. It's not a free market. They're not saving you from anything. The people who like them like them because they're getting Monero payments on the sly for being part of Palestine (Hamas)/Antifa/BLM events, which they can use to buy all sorts of horrific stuff on the Dark Web. These "assets" are heavily concentrated in the hands of players either squatting in Shanghai (Babylon) with the CCP, or with entities who have stained their hands earning "the Mark" for "the Plan." The problem for the CCP and Xi Jinping is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners looms over their head like a guillotine about to drop. And so everything related to these digital currency things and people are things you want to practice social distancing from, wash your hands of, and inoculate yourself against by formally filing a statement of withdrawal on the Tuidang website. Whoever doesn't have the guts, can't see it, or doesn't want to is gone with the wind. So, here's the trade. The Eth rally is obviously real, and it's obviously an exit pump at the same time. This means the target is painfully higher. Not to raid a monthly bar and then turn around and dump. This means that shorts are trapped, more shorts are trapped. A problem is that market psychology is not what you think it is. People love to buy when stuff is expensive and they love to sell when stuff is cheap. Because emotion is what drives everything, and it's why every U.S. election is lynch pinned around the words "fear" and "hate." Price going up means a lot of big on-chain wallets get sold off at very high prices. Not only because shorts are force liquidated/force covered, but because people come piling in to buy with the number $5,000 in their eyes. Eth monthly shows us that the dump was too deep and took too long to rally to be some sort of a prelude to a new high. But because this rally shows no signs of retracing anywhere on futures or BTC, we can only assume that the target is the most obvious and painful target, which is the $3,600 pivot level set in 2022. The problem for proponents of $4,000 is that despite these rallies and this supposedly bullish news about ETFs, there's no contango in futures at the moment. And so this means that the CME Futures pattern will constrain the exchange spot prices, which we see in the charts This means $3,600-$3,800 is the likely top. And what's going to kill the rally? It's really simple. A raid by the FBI/DOJ/SEC on Tether/iFinex/Bitfinex will do it and end it all forever. What happened with online poker in the late 2000s when this happened to Full Tilt and Pokerstars? One day everyone woke up to find their websites, where all their money was held, had been shut down with a takedown notice. Everyone lost their money and it took many years for it to be paid back by the companies that bought FTP/Stars, the industry never recovered, and now you never even so much as hear about poker. And that's what is going to happen to crypto. In the future, it will be gone. And so will the 9th Communist International's CBDCs.
BINANCE:ETHUSD.PLong
by LordWrymouth
17
Coinbase - The Moonboy GuillotineFrankly speaking, Coinbase is a stock you actually want to keep a careful eye on, because as the US/International regimes fully integrate digital currency, Coinbase is quite likely to be a key organ of the network. But for now, this thing is worth $14 billion still and at a time that the crypto market is doing really poorly, Binance and Tether are ticking timebombs waiting to go full Mt. Gox, and banks are about to establish real crypto exchanges. The current breed of digital currencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are things that have been corrupted by Chinese Communist Party entities. All the way from the mining cartels to the communities to the Ethereum foundation, there are links to mainland China every step of the way. And this is something you should really be worried about when the new International Rules Based Order policy is about "de-risking" from China. And moreover, China has a lot of problems from the pandemic, the coming possibility that Xi Jinping will coup d'etat the CCP in the middle of the US night one day soon, and the looming persecution of Falun Gong since 1999 by the Jiang Zemin faction. The timing is a little off to go long, but since you're being told it's time for $100,000, if you believe it, then I suppose you've consented to losing your money. Right now I have calls on Bitcoin for $33,000 to $35,000: Bitcoin - Balance Amidst FUD And Ethereum for a $2,130~ double top: Ethereum - Prepare For The $2,150 Double Top In my opinion, with the chart set up and pattern, the Coinbase market maker is not going to create higher prices. The target is below the December low. Numbers like $15 or $18 are what the low will look like ultimately. And so right now if you're long on this I recommend you sell on a breakout of this April-July trendline around $69. If you don't sell your shares now I really do believe these prices won't be seen again for at least 2 years. I do not believe price will break $72 because the market maker is actually short. For now, the trade gives a scalp opportunity to go from $61 to $69 as well. The target is the very bottom. And then a new new bottom of the new bottom. Afterwards, perhaps Coinbase will rise again.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by LordWrymouth
10
The SPX500 vs. Bitcoin - a warning. Monthly bull divergences, most likely this hits .40 in a few years or maybe less time. So, what does this chart mean? If the uptrend continues... 1. If SPX rallies, then Bitcoin will rally less (less likely scenario) 2. If SPX falls, BTC will likely fall more (more likely scenario) In other words, according to this chart, calls for the bottom in bitcoin are extremely premature. It doesn't mean it won't have fantastic rallies - it will. But overall, the projection for price is lower on BTC for quite some time to come.
FX:SPX500Short
by the_sunship
3.5 years to recover 2008 recessionIt took about 3.5 years, from the last top in late 2007, to cross all relevant moving averages in early 2011, for us to confirm all the market bottoms were in. During that time, more than half of the market was lost in its last bottom compared to its last top. Expect same or worse in this 2022 recession, as more things will pop in this everything bubble. The current Triple EMA (TEMA) has only dipped about the same as during the pandemic, so we have only just begun the slow drop. Take care & keep looking for sectors, equities & ETNs that perform well in recessions, including the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) Short ETF : BITI
AMEX:SPYShort
by roelds
Step right up Bitcoin Bears! Long Term Chart! Pattern?If you are new to charts here's one for you. Just look at this long term chart which provides a better guidance on the long term trend. What's the trend? And with the fundamentals that we can't even chart the money supply world wide, well, we can't measure it by itself but BITI is the closest chart to world money supply and the value of FIAT currencies.. Maybe? You research for yourselves. Just the charts? NOT a good season to be a Bitcoin Bear. You have been warned. At best, this is a bull relief play but go short the legacy banks and auto makers. All backed by monopoly money. LOL
TSX:BITIShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
4