Bitcoin Perpetual Swaps v Spot basis suggest overlev longs Bottom indicator showing some important Perpetual Swaps contracts vs Coinbase price basis
baseline = spot price
basis positive = swaps trading at premium (generally strong over-leveraged LONG exposure ), push longs paying funding to shorts
basis negative = swaps trading at discount (generally strong over-leveraged SHORT exposure ), push short paying funding to longs
We can observe ongoing existence of what is likely to be over leveraged longs.
The swaps been trading significantly at premium.
Trading at premium mean that swaps funding rates rise substantially and consistently putting pressure on longs since longs pay shorts.
Market-markers are on the receiving side of that funding to offset the risk of being against the trend while providing liquidity to a market that may for the moment may be losing some steam on the demand side waiting for a pullback
Price been trading consistently above the trendline which remain intact but the swap-spot basis suggest a strong pull may occur in the future. Staying full long (specially if entry is very recent) in what looks like a very possible local top, even if we wick towards 20.1k, is very risky.
Bitmex
BTC ABOVE THE ERA OF BELIEF -$30,000 IMMINENT🚀 WE JUST CROSSED BELIEF ERA - Expect the media to wake up soon 🚀
💭As it turns out when we compare the market cycle to our present day chart, we find out we have passed the:
😱The Panic Phase
😡The Anger Phase
🤮The Capitulation Era
😔The Depression Era
😅 And now we find the market between the era of restored hope and high optimism only this time we on a larger scale and at a higher stands.
📆 2020 doesnt look so different from 2017 but this time its only a pity that before the mass FOMO will begin bitcoin might already have surpassed its previous ATH of $20,000/BTC
🌙 And if 2020 remains anything like 2017 then we may likely see $30,000/BTC between Dec 2020 - Feb 2021.
The moon perhaps might only be our starting point.
✊🏽HODL ₿ITCOIN ✊🏽
🟡 BITCOIN : BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN IN WEEKLY TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #Bitcoin/U.S. Dollar
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Strategy: Bearish Gartley Harmonic pattern With Take Profits on volume profile accumulation. Potential Max R/R is 6.91%
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Bitcoin dump to 6666.66 by 6/6 next year BTC|drop in Elliot WaveLast upward price movements since Corona Crash reminded me of Elliot waves so I started to count them and try to be more realistic as my last idea was a bit too exaggerated, so if time and target are right will take us at $6666.66 next year so I assume day and month will be again something diabolic :)
Basically chart is showing counts of Elliot Wave impulse since March 2020 up to today and possible correction path/target/time in the next months, now 6666.66 is a psychological target and Volume Profile showing support at that range, also ABC correction validates impulse Elliot Wave and target is above wave 1.
Still very possible to make a faster correction by January/February as my last idea still in the 6K range but I don`t see it anymore.
Don`t get back to me with 50K or above targets as they are pure fiction, above 17.18K we can talk about 20-25K but that`s it maximum I can see for BTC and not going to happen any time soon, Hopium reached high levels, barely that you can find an bearish idea and almost none with target under 10K.
What goes up most come down is not science and is being played in all symbols for hundred years, BTC is not an exception.
Happy days
Short plan BTCI'm going to short btc because of the following reasons:
- there is a lot of euphoria.
- a lot of stoplosses to hunt.
- lots of liquidations (if this move comes true)
And a main reason is:
The $12.000 resistance that's broken, is never tested in this rally to the upside. So i expect we'll see AT LEAST this level. From there, price might go lower. But that depends on the momentum.
JPMORGAN PRISING BITCOIN IS NEVER A GOOD SIGNMany good news in the media this last week, specially coming from big player like JPMORGAN about bitcoin, this is starting to look like a place where they might distribute, to reacumulate again in the 12k area, liquidate some big longs in the way, refuell their pockets, and draw new ATH in 2021. Nothing comfirmed jet, just suspicious. still bullish (very) in the weekly and monthly chart, we are at the start at the new bull cicle, 95% chances I would say.
BE ALERT WITH 16K AREA - BREAKDOWN TREND! BTC breakdown trend.15.9 16K area are the expecting start down trend.
Learn from history, ALL what increase huge, should get a recovery.
Have good time, expecting that we will breakdown back to 14K area or lower
Whale effect?
whale effect shows since long term strong effect for bitcoin, but know that there are high % traders than only trade btc for profit, when its time for recovery they will leave.
What are the expecting target?
Expecting 14K target or lower.
Have good time all.
Kyber network stuck in a range KNCKyber network on both the BTC and USDT chart has had some serious sell off over the past few months and has been stuck in a nice range for a few weeks on the USDT chart.
Im expecting to see a descent pause on the KNC/BTC chart and a short term recovery to reclaim some previous liquidity zones.
If we see that reversal or recovery on the sat chart and BTC holds its current position and consolidates for a week or so i expect to see the KNC/USDT chart have some huge upside for a while.
Looking to enter long on low leverage from the demand block at the bottom of the range but its a critical point ill be watching closely.
If it breaks this bottom im out as the trades invalidated.
Looking to manage the trade at the supply block at the top of the range and then again at the smaller resistance level around 1.186 heading into that previous consolidation.
still a good 7:1 trade catching the bottom of this range so worth a shot for my style of trading.
LTCZ20 possible shortI have been staying off bitmex a little lately since all the drama around Arthur but slowly edging back into it now after a short stint on binance futures.
Watching LTC closely here for a short term short play.
We have retraced past the 618 and sitting on a significant EQ right now and the MACD looks to have some descent momentum to continue selling further.
Im watching this EQ break for a short position back down to previous low or just above, i may not get to greedy as it could be short lived if BTC gets stuck in the range for any longer.
I will update when the trades active
Bitcoin : Can be it be that simple?Once again Bitcoin showing the bears who is BOSS, Sometimes, simple works best.
There is a obvious Bull Flag / Bull Pennant pattern.
In extremely fast faced bull markets sometimes these patterns can form on a slanted angle and still breakout upwards.
Other important things to note ALTHOUGH we are under the orderblock resistance on Bitmex chart on Huobi we are well above it.
We need to hold the crucial support levels 13630 for the short term upside, 13280 for general uptrend.
The targets are the above resistance areas.