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Coinbase - The Moonboy GuillotineFrankly speaking, Coinbase is a stock you actually want to keep a careful eye on, because as the US/International regimes fully integrate digital currency, Coinbase is quite likely to be a key organ of the network. But for now, this thing is worth $14 billion still and at a time that the crypto market is doing really poorly, Binance and Tether are ticking timebombs waiting to go full Mt. Gox, and banks are about to establish real crypto exchanges. The current breed of digital currencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are things that have been corrupted by Chinese Communist Party entities. All the way from the mining cartels to the communities to the Ethereum foundation, there are links to mainland China every step of the way. And this is something you should really be worried about when the new International Rules Based Order policy is about "de-risking" from China. And moreover, China has a lot of problems from the pandemic, the coming possibility that Xi Jinping will coup d'etat the CCP in the middle of the US night one day soon, and the looming persecution of Falun Gong since 1999 by the Jiang Zemin faction. The timing is a little off to go long, but since you're being told it's time for $100,000, if you believe it, then I suppose you've consented to losing your money. Right now I have calls on Bitcoin for $33,000 to $35,000: Bitcoin - Balance Amidst FUD And Ethereum for a $2,130~ double top: Ethereum - Prepare For The $2,150 Double Top In my opinion, with the chart set up and pattern, the Coinbase market maker is not going to create higher prices. The target is below the December low. Numbers like $15 or $18 are what the low will look like ultimately. And so right now if you're long on this I recommend you sell on a breakout of this April-July trendline around $69. If you don't sell your shares now I really do believe these prices won't be seen again for at least 2 years. I do not believe price will break $72 because the market maker is actually short. For now, the trade gives a scalp opportunity to go from $61 to $69 as well. The target is the very bottom. And then a new new bottom of the new bottom. Afterwards, perhaps Coinbase will rise again.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by LordWrymouth
10
Bitcoin Cash - Don't Long The TopThe current generation of digital currencies are something I really implore you to lose all faith in. At this point in history, they are old, and have been corrupted by various factors using the "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish" technique. In the short term future, the existing cryptos will be significantly marked down as a result of Central Bank Digital Currencies, and probably something like a "One World" or "New World Order" CBDC being issued as part of the coming social credit system. Social credit is a despicable importation of the Chinese Communist Party's Zero-COVID scheme, and nothing you should look forward to. No, they aren't going to make your bags of retail memecoins part of the system. JP Morgan forked Ethereum for themselves and SWIFT is already testing on it, lol. George Carlin once said, "It’s a big party and you are not invited!" Moreover, so much of the crypto community is the criminal underworld, and a lot of it is directly linked to the CCP. Many of the miners are linked to the CCP, everything is linked to the CCP, and in the worst way. This will be a big problem for people in the near term future, especially with the geopolitical risks of Xi Jinping against the International Rules Based Order and the Jiang Zemin faction. The IRBO is dirty with Jiang and Jiang is responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against the 100,000,000 practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation. But at present, Bitcoin Cash is both a dumpster coin and not a dumpster coin. Although it was supposed to be the thing that preserved the original Satoshi whitepaper, it too was corrupted in the 3E paradigm and has, unfortunately, always been little more than something for SHA256 miners to algorithmically cycle to depending on difficulty vs coin cost. This means as long as Bitcoin mining exists that Bitcoin Cash will have a healthy market. But it also means there's a lot of incentive to dump it, and dump it again, since dumping it can break miners and rebalance the equation. Fortunately, the technicals on BCH for a rally are actually solid for the monthly, weekly, and daily candles, which are all that matters. Monthly Weekly Daily When a lot of people look at the Daily and 4H charts, they're going to see a "bull flag," a continuation pattern, and feel that for sure the "next leg up" is for certain $500. These meme patterns don't exist. Nobody with hundreds of millions of dollars at risk is buying or selling anything based on trendlines and bat patterns. Give your head a shake and wake up. In my view, what BCH will do is this: First, it will break the $268 low. Think like sub $250. Second, it will rally to $350 Third, that's the end of the fun for longs The best scenario bulls will have ahead of themselves afterwards is a retrace to $130-$150. But in reality, if the markets-at-large, and especially crypto, are as unhealthy as they appear, then that low at $86 is not going to hold. So, top longers, can you hold a bag to a raid to $25 that only takes a few months and scares you to death? Speculating in digital currency is very dangerous. The only people making the market are not your friend. There are few friends in crypto. It's mostly just a bunch of useful idiots doing Marxist things and yammering about "The Plan" as if they've enlightened to reality.
BINANCE:BCHUSD.PShort
by LordWrymouth
2
BTC UpdateSo it did get a bounce after all, lol. Indicators appear to be working, MI and RSI did not hit overbought yet, but BTC has rolled over at this level before so it might not hit the upper channel line. My guess is it gets a weekend pump on low volume then sells off again next week because PCE numbers were higher than expected. No rate cuts in the foreseen futures, we may see 2 more hike this year, Not inclined to short it over the weekend because weekend BITO premium burn is horrendous, especially a 3 day weekend.
B
by hungry_hippo
BITO: Risk on rideBITO 390m: Breakout from structure held since June 2022 and move over value area high. Auction has now moved over key MAs. Aggressive movements & high vol in the crypto sector has produced risk on sentiment and a two day upside of +30%; diverging from recent equity sentiment. Continued price action and breadth in this space could see BITO continue its current move to price rediscovery of May 2022 levels into the 18.14, 22.48 vPOCs; contingent of exhaustion absence//Will monitor how derivatives position post market favored CPI reports this am and into EOM OpEX, compression of volatility, and Fed speak// RVOL 3.56, IV: 87.40%, Fast Beta: 0.77, Notable that ATR: 0.67// Bias: Acute long// Price at time of publish: 15.95
AMEX:BITOLong
by GroundNinja
Quick Bitcoin "Spot ETF" Comparison ($BTC.X $MSTR $GBTC $BITO)Still as expected. NASDAQ:MSTR is a bit of a leveraged play... $BITO (so far) is still working out as the most pure spot play... and $GBTC yeah... there's Grayscale always in the news with the 40-50% sale. LOL Can you stomach the potential risk/reward of GBTC? Are we still using it as an informal technical indicator for coin movement? In my opinion, BITO is probably the smart choice for tax advantaged IRAs etc. Otherwise, just buy and hodl the actual coins in your cold wallet. Will revisit down the road. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by gr-
BTC OscillatorFreakin' hilarious, BTC has been the best indicator of market top and bottom this week. Flipped puts yesterday at support and bought GM calls, flipped my calls on open and bought BITO puts at the resistance. I have no idea if it breaks support or cycles back up next week, but holding those BITO puts for kicks and giggles. I plan to flip my puts Tuesday if it doesn;t break support over the weekend, at this point I figure the worst that can happen is that I lose today's profits. I don't see BTC breaking through resistance over the weekend though I suppose anything is possible.
CME:BTC1!
by hungry_hippo
Rolling (Margin): BITO Sept 12C/17P to Oct 11C/16P... for a .63 credit. Comments: Rolling out with 28 days to go, but adjusting strikes slightly to delta neutral, since there wasn't a ton of difference in credit between rolling out "as is" versus delta balancing. Total credits collected of 5.01 on a 5 wide inverted. The setup is currently marking at 6.46 relative to my cost basis of 5.01, so it's underwater by 1.45 ($145). Moreover, the max the setup can make is 5.01 minus the width of the inversion (5.00) (i.e., $1), so I'm just looking to cut that loss a smidge before calling it a day if I can, with price ideally staying between the short option strikes throughout the life of the setup. Resulting delta/theta of -8.42/2.18.
AMEX:BITO
by NaughtyPines
2
Trading Idea: BITO September 16th 2 x 19/25 Call RatioI'm not quite ready to pull the trigger on this setup, as I'm waiting for support at around 22 to present itself (at which time the strikes of this setup would naturally have to be adjusted lower). However, I wanted to price it out here just to look at buying power effect. To set up this trade, I'd be buying 2 x the 75 delta calls (for 150 long delta) and selling the 50 delta call, resulting in a setup that is around net delta 100 long and with a break even at or around where the underlying is currently trading. Current Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 10.13 ($1013) Max Profit: Theoretically Infinite Break Even: 24.07 vs. 24.02 spot (as of Friday close) Delta/Theta: -.67/97.30 Doing things this way allows me to basically take the equivalent of a one lot position in BITO for far less than I would if I bought the stock outright and for less than half the cost (and risk).
AMEX:BITOLong
by NaughtyPines
1
The Week Ahead: XBI, ARKF, ARKG, BITO, ARKK, KWEB, IWM/RUTEarnings: TSLA (63/69). Announces on Wednesday after market close, so if you're looking to play the volatility contraction, look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session or, if implied volatility afterglow persists, early Thursday after it has made its move. If NFLX earnings is any indication of whether TSLA will "behave," you may want to consider waiting until after the announcement to avoid a repeat of "the Netflix experience." As it is, the January 28th options are pricing in something bigly: +/- $82 or so, so 862 on the put side, 1026. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Rank >70%/30-Day >35%, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: Cathie Woods' funds continue to have a really bad hair day/week/month ... . XBI (100/48) ARKF (97/59) ARKG (87/66) BITO (82/85) ARKK (82/62) KWEB (74/58) EWZ (51/40) Pictured here is a bullish assumption BITO March 18th 17 short put, paying .60 at the mid price on buying power of 16.40. The broker is still requiring it to be cash-secured, so the ROC %-age is not all that sexy: 3.7% at max (25.0% annualized) as a function of buying power effect. Because of that, I would consider slapping on a cheap put to bring in the buying power effect, but the best you can currently do is to buy the 13, making it into a four-wide paying .38, and that amount isn't particularly compelling, particularly if you're going to be taking profit at 50% max. The ROC %-age is way better (9.5% at max), but I'd rather look at a setup where the long leg costs something like .05-.10, so I may stick a pin in that trade; lower strikes may populate at some point. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: QQQ (77/33) IWM (77/35) SPY (73/28) DIA (72/26) EFA (65/23) In the retirement account, I'll basically continue to ladder out short put as long as IVR/IV remains elevated. This is the exact environment in which I like to make additions on the put side: weakness plus increased implied volatility. Naturally, one begets the other. I'll also be keeping an eye on net portfolio delta to see if additional short delta hedge is required to keep me from getting overly directional which can make things more uncomfortable in a protracted down turn. I point this out because what people primarily see in my feed is "short put, short put, short put" and not the short delta hedges put on that are just kind of running in the background. There is individual trade delta, but also portfolio-wide delta.
AMEX:BITO
by NaughtyPines