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Bitstampbtcusd

How I Analyze the Market in 20 minutes.Because every time someone asks me what I think a coin will do requires more than a simple answer to properly explain my idea and my thinking. This video took 20 minutes and I think I spoke quite fast to get enough information in here. My streams can be seen to get a better understanding. I try to stream every weekday morning at 9:30 and every 1:30 (4HR change on stock market) Check the related ideas below for "The right Schiff Pitchfork" if you want to take the Schiff pitchfork I use. It is a short 3 minute video where I set it up and shows the places, values and all that. The S Pitchfork one from last year has the values that I used for this year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TrendLINEBoys
2
POC is $34K - Does That Mean the Bottom Is In?POC shows $34,xxx when evaluating PA since before 2021. To me that implies that POC is the line in the sand. We bounced strongly off that POC. If that POC is in fact where support must turn into resistance to further the bears' momentum, then an extraordinary amount of selling must occur there. It was also a key level for barely-late leveraged longs. It seems more likely to me that this is the bottom before a new ATH than bears having enough selling pressure to flip the market to the downside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mister_desmodue
BTC Wants to Complete 1-year Wedge Before Breakout to new ATHsThe breakout from the descending tightening wedge that formed over the past 2 weeks seems to have failed, despite printing an uncanny similarity to previous breakouts. - 1 last touch on wedge at $39k area would be the third touch and thus completing a standard ascending tightening wedge printing since about October 2020. I suspect it will break to the upside for new ATHs - Many bearish fibs correlating with $39k. For the sake of sharing a clean chart I drew only one. 12/18 swing high to 12/27. The 1.272 extension correlates with $39k. - Weekly Ichimoku wants $39k - EMA 70 wants $39k (my favorite EMA for BTC) - $39k correlates with upper boundary of the next volume cluster (VPVR)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by mister_desmodue
9
BTC needs to retrace in early Jan - then keep the move goingHere is a view of BTC where a new zone has been created short term potential swap zone at 21,000 where price can fall back just as fast as it can rise. The chart shows us: Maxed out weekly, monthly tops, creating a new all time high for the coin. with a strong bullish movement, a potential correctional movement can take place in the run up to the holiday season. Keep track of the US impact for the stimulus bill and further pumping of data on unemployment. - the stimulus package has now been agreed for $900bn and the vaccines are now rolling out. The US market is looking to continue growth upon the federal spending and position itself with forecasted growth into 2021. Zones to watch for long additions. $22,000 - 23,750 $30k target - nearly there, however 29k is the -0.786 extension target. We now have an imbalance to fill back to $22.5 to 24k Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
Maximum pain with an expanding ending diagonalBitcoin: Hidden Bullish divergence on the 12H RSI, confluent with trendline support of a potential expanding diagonal triangle to complete wave 1 of a larger 5th/C at around $13k. Expecting a SFP rejection from $13k and a short-term correction to follow with major support at $11.1k and confluence of major support between $10.2-10.3k where there is a strong weekly level and a 4H order block which I suspect will be tested. Should only be a wick to these levels with $10.5k holding on a higher TF close. 12H Hidden bullish divergence:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Piggy_Profit
1
Bitcoin - August 19, 2020 (Bullish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hi everyone, ... back with another update. It has been a while, but I decided to decrease the frequency of my posts and only post when we have significant new data points to update our analysis. First of all: I am still bullish, despite the recent dump (~7%). In my last post, - I mentioned an ascending triangle. ** The triangle that I drew at that time got invalidated. ** But... On the (1D) chart below (top), I have drawn a new (wider) ascending triangle, with a top line at the 12,100 resistance. On Monday, BTC tried to break that resistance for the 3rd time, but again got rejected. However, note (a) that the 3 consecutive rejections (red rectangles) have set 3 consecutive higher lows (blue rectangels) and (2) that the previous 2 rejections were short-lived and followed by a continuation of the price increase. I expect the same for this rejection. Hence, in my opinion, this may be a buy the dip-opportunity. ** Note that the latest rejection bottomed out at the confluence of the .236 Fib and the 1D SMA (red curve) (+/- 11,650). BTC is currently resting on top of the 11,850 level. The 11,650 - 11,850 price band will probably be(come) a new primary support level. ** If we zoom in on the 4H chart (bottom), we notice that (1) we are printing a red 9 on the TDS, (2) the last 3 lows are consecutively higher, (3) the low of the current (4h) candle corresponds to the (4H) 50-period SMA (green curve) and (4) the volume is decreasing. Hence, BTC seems to be consolidating and preparing itself for the next move. We may still be up for a final push down, but I do believe that we will bottom near 11,650. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (unchanged): BULLISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GeertVD
Bitcoin - August 10, 2020 (Bullish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hi everyone, ... back with another update. >>> SEE COMMENT BELOW, FOR THE FULL TEXT <<< So... Yes, I am still bullish. We have definitively witnessed some interesting action in the last couple hours (and also during the last couple of days). Let's have a look at the 4H chart. All through yesterday, BTC was wrestling with the support of the ascending triangle (that I mentioned in my previous post). In the past 24 hours, - the price came down all the way to the 50-period (4H) SMA (green curve); - quickly spiked to the 12,100 level; - got rejected at the 12,100 level; - dropped back to the .618 Fib; and, finally - bounced back, to find support at the to the21-period (4H) SMA/EMA (red and blue curve). When I up, the prices was just over 12,000 and I decided to close my long position (based on gut feeling). => I wrote an update to my previous post, but somehow, the text doesn't show (except for "Quick update!", which is kinda worthless...) => I re-entered a long position, in the 11,600 - 11,700 area. There's a few thoughts I want to share with you guys: - Despite the volatility of the last 24 hours, the ascending triangle is till valid (in my opinion). - Mark that (in the course of the last week) BTC has (in this order) tested the .236, .382, .5 and .618 Fib levels (the 4 blue rectangles). - BTC is currently resting on the 21-period (4H) SMA and EMA (~11,730), with the .786 (11,770) nearby. If BTC van manage a few candle closes above these levels, this may become a solid primary support zone. => The area of confluence of the 50-period (4H) SMA (11,540) and the .618 Fib (11,511) would then be a secondary support zone. - So far, we got rejected twice at the 12,100 level. However, the uptrend that started after the first rejection is still intact. This observation, together with the "fact" that BTC's price typically breaks a (strong) level of resistance at or after the 3 (re-)test, makes me believe that a break of the 12,100 level is possible in the short/medium term. Therefore, I remain bullish! ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (unchanged): BULLISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GeertVD
1
Bitcoin - August 9, 2020 (Bullish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hi everyone, ... back with another (quick) update. As predicted in my previous post, BTC bounced off the .5 Fib (11,330). So, what now? In my opinion, we are forming an ascending triangle (AT), with resistance at the .786 Fib (11,770). We are currently riding the support of the triangle, so watch out for that. A break down (with convincing volume) would invalidate the AT. Until that happens, I will remain bullish. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (unchanged): BULLISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GeertVD
3
Bitcoin - August 7, 2020 (Bullish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hi everyone, ... back with another update. I have been quite busy with work the last days, so this is gonna be a quickie. In my previous post, I mentioned that my bias would flip from bearish to bullish if we had a 4H candle close above 10,400. That happened and as soon as I spotted it, I entered a long position. Unfortunately, I got stopped out, because of a few flash crashes with a long wick. Today we have seen mostly bearish action, but I am not (too) concerned yet. We have, essentially, in this order, witnessed - the break down from the small (black) rising wedge (on 1H time frame); - the breakdown from the bigger (cyan) rising wedge; - an attempt to break (to the downside) through the (lower) 11,500 area (the .618 Fib level). The latter level is currently acting as support. In my opinion, - some downwards action is good, because it allows the RSI e.a. to cool off; - the 11,400 - 11,500 ** should provide ample support; ** is a good area to buy (with a stop-loss around 11,330, i.e. the .50 Fib). I will remain bullish, until the 11,300 level is taken out with significant volume. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (revised up): BULLISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GeertVD
1
Bitcoin - August 5, 2020 (Bearish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, ... back with another update. The take-aways of today's post are: - Yesterday was a non-event in terms of the BTC price (O: 11,236 <> C: 11,192). - I remain bearish ** despite the (2.7%) recovery from yesterday's low ( 11,000 <= mark that figure...); and ** because BTC is still struggling with the .50 Fib level (11,330). Let's take a look at the 4H chart. - Since the August 2 dump, we have been range bound between the .382 Fib (10,920) and the .50 Fib (11,330) (disregarding the local high (11,480) of August 4). - We are currently seeing a (minor) price rally , following yesterday's 11,000 low. However: ** volume has been declining consistently; ** we haven't (convincingly) broken the .50 Fib (11,330) resistance; ** we haven't set a (local) higher high (=> for that, we need to break above 11,480). - On the plus side: we are currently above the 21-period (4H) SMA (red curve), the 21-period (4H) EMA (blue curve) and the 50-period (4H) SMA (green curve). ** Hence, the 11,230 - 11,270 zone will likely act as a first line of support. If we take a look at the (4H) RSI chart, we see that - the RSI (pink curve) has bounced off the .45 level and is currently on it's way up; - there is no (hidden) divergence; and - the Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly . This suggests that a (short term) burst is on the horizon. => Given the positive signals on the RSI, I would expect a break to the upside . However, unless that break (1) occurs with substantial volume and (2) takes out the previous local high (11,480), I will not change my bearish stance. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (Unchanged): BEARISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GeertVD
Bitcoin - August 4, 2020 (Bearish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, ... back with another update. => If you haven't done so, please check the update on yesterday's analysis (I wrote just b4 going to bed). Okay, let's get right into it! First of all, in comparison to yesterday's chart, on today's chart I have - added the Fibonacci retracement, from the top (12,100) to the bottom (10,559.59) of the August 2 dump; - re-drawn the bear-flag, using the latest candle closes. Let's have a closer look at the above chart (4H). We have - the 11,200 key level (dashed red line); Note how it acted as resistance (before August 1) and now (seemingly) acts support. - the bear flag (2 black arrows); Note that right now, the bottom of the flag lines up with the 11,200 (support) level. The current 4H candle bounced off that level. - the 21-period (4H) SMA (red curve); This MA (a) acted as support during the dump: we flash-crashed through it, but we ultimately closed right on top of it; (b) acted as resistance, as of the next 4H candle. Yesterday, at 6pm UTC+2 we BTC attempted an upside break through the 21-period (4H) SMA, but failed. - the .50 Fibonacci retracement level (+/- 11,330); Note that (a) the .50 Fib (perfectly) lined up with the 21-period (4H) SMA, during and right after the dump; (b) seems to be acting as resistance on the current 4H candle; which is hence squeezed between 11,200 (support) and 11,330 (resistance). => These would be the immediate levels to watch! ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (Unchanged): BEARISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GeertVD
Bitcoin - August 3, 2020 (Bearish)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, ... back with another update. First of all: apparently it's a violation of the rules to mention social media applications in a post, so yesterday's post got flagged and deleted by TradingView. This post is just going to be a quick update. If we zoom in to the hourly time frame, it's clear that we are forming a bear flag (the 2 black arrows). At the moment, we have our 3rd lower high (+/- 11,250). The last 3 hourly candles are all "gravestone dojis" (a bearish pattern that suggests a reversal followed by a downtrend in the price action). This is consistent with the bear flag-pattern and it adds to the likelihood that we will see a continuation of the downwards action. Note, as well, that we are at a green 8 on the TDS (hourly time frame). Hence, the signs are there for a (short term) drop. The key levels to watch are - To the upside: 11,400. A (convincing) break through 11,400 could revive the bull run. (First target: 11,650.) - to the downside: 11,000. A (convincing) break through 11,000 could result in another dump. (first target: 10,600.) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (Unchanged): BEARISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GeertVD
1
Bitcoin - July 26, 2020 (Neutral)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, ... back with another update. So: - BTC broke out of the (short-term) ascending triangle (shorter fuchsia and blue arrows). - BTC broke through the 9,800 resistance (bottom fuchsia arrow). - BTC got (another) strong rejection at the 10,200 level (top fuchsia arrow). Note that I don't consider 10,000 to be a significant level, but rather 10,200. Given - the strong rejection from the 10,200 level; - the fact that we will most likely print a green 9 on the TD Sequential (unless tomorrow's close is below 9,617); and - the (daily) RSI sitting around 75 (with the shorter term RSIs being significantly higher), now would be a good time to take some profits (if you entered a long around 9,600) and/or set a stop-loss to lock-in your profits. 9,800 would be the common-sense level for your stop-loss. On the hourly time frame, we are approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle (lime green). Symmetrical triangles are usually continuation patters (hence, in this case, we would expect them to break to the upside). As you can see, BTC is indeed trying to break the triangle to the upside. Let's see how it plays out. For the time being, I assume the action has passed. Hence I remain NEUTRAL (with a slight bearish bias). ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (unchanged): NEUTRAL (leaning bearish) ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GeertVD
Bitcoin - July 25, 2020 (Neutral)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, ... back with another update. There's not a lot to report. * We are hitting resistance at 9,600 (magenta arrow). * TD Sequential and Stochastic RSI are signalling an upcoming trend change (see below). Unless we drop significantly, today's close will print a green 7 on the TD Sequential . => A green 9 would be a strong indication of an incoming trend change. Furthermore, notice that we have a cross on the stochastic RSI ; with the (daily) RSI sitting around 65. It's also worth having a look at the hourly chart . We are very close to the apex of an ascending triangle (magenta and blue arrows). Statistically seen, these have a 63% (empirical) probability of breaking to the upside (with significant volume). However, the breakout generally occurs at 62% of the way from the start (in our case, the big green candle of July 23 @ 00:00h UTC+2) to the apex. We are clearly way past this point. Moreover, volume is trending down and hugging the 21h SMA (red curve) and EMA (blue curve). Hence, at this point, it's a coin flip. However, I would keep a close eye on it: it should be a matter of hours. * If we break (up) 9,600 with substantial volume, that would be a sign to go long. * If we break (down) the ascending (blue) line and the 21h SMA and EMA, that would be a sign to go short. But, until that moment, I remain NEUTRAL. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (unchanged): NEUTRAL ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GeertVD
5
Bitcoin - July 24, 2020 (Neutral)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, Apologies for the delay (work), but, here I am... ... back with another update. As it turns out, I was right and wrong at the same time! Previously, I mentioned that the red 9 on the TD sequential was a signal of a trend-change. I was right on that one. However, I also mentioned that I didn't think BTC could/would break through the confluence of resistance, formed by the 21D SMA, 21D EMA and the 9,250 level. Clearly, I was wrong about that. It caught me by surprise. In the period from July 21 to July 23 BTC printed 3 green days, gaining 6%, from a low of 9,150 to a high of 9,700. The question is: what now? I would suggest to wait and see : as could be expected, after consecutive green days, we are currently consolidating . Some interesting observations: 1. BTC managed to break the 9,500 level (bottom horizontal blue arrow), but did not manage to break the 9,800 level top horizontal blue arrow). 2. Today's low corresponds with the multi-year down-trend (fuchsia) and the 9,500 level. Hence, we may see this turn into new primary support . (Though we need a few more days, to see if we can confirm this.) 3. BTC broke the 21D SMA (red curve), the 21D EMA (blue cruve) and the 50D SMA (green curve). Hence, the 50D SMA (+/- 9,350) could become a new secondary level of support . 4. During the "break-out", volume wasn't exceptionally high . In fact, if you look at the flashy green arrow (at the bottom of the chart), you will notice that the volume of the first 2 days of the break-out was rather low. This suggests that the source of the break-out is illiquidity, rather than significant demand. 5. RSI, VFI and DI are starting to roll over . My conclusion is: I missed out on this break-out, however, in my opinion it shows signs of weakness and seems to have lost momentum, so I am not flipping bullish. However, with some previous resistance broken and higher levels of support (seemingly) being formed, I would be a fool to be bearish. Hence: I revise my opinion upwards to NEUTRAL. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (revised upwards): NEUTRAL ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GeertVD
Bitcoin - July 21, 2020 (Short)BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Hello everyone, Back with another update. Yesterday I promised to have a look at the 3-day chart. What I wanted to point out is that ever since June 20 the 21-period (3-daily) EMA (blue curve) acts as support . In addition, notice 1. how the following oscillators (3-daily) are all bottoming out: * RSI (magenta) * Stochastic RSI (grey/black) * MFI (cyan) 2. how the Bollinger bands on the RSI are narrowing Finally, notice on the ADX chart, how both Directional Indicators (green: measuring the buy-pressure ; red: measuring the sell-pressure) have been decreasing since May 6. Meaning: there is no real action in the market, because no-one is willing the buy and no-one is willing to sell. Consequently, liquidity is very low and it is easy to move the price up or down by a few 100 dollars. All of this (together with the red-to-green flip on the TD Sequential) led me to believe that a break to the upside was around the corner. Turns out I was right. Unfortunately, BTC outpaced my :-) Now, what does this mean? Don't let FOMO get you. I've seen many YouTubers brag on how BTC is doing exactly what they predicted and how BTW is definitely going to moon now. Well... I disagree. In my opinion: this move means nothing! Notice that BTC has bounced off the 50-daily SMA and the 21-period 3-daily SMA. The 9,400 level will be serious resistance. Furthermore, look at the volume. It's not bad, but not great either. And it's already declining. In addition, we printed a green 9 on the hourly TD Sequential. So, in my opinion, this is yet another fake out and we're more likely to revert and drop , than to keep going higher. Therefore, I revise my opinion downwards to SHORT . Not financial advise: I plan to enter a short, with a SL just below 9,400 (to beat everyone that will set their SL at 9,400). The 9,250 level an the top of the (black) descending triangle (which we broke out of) will act as support, so those are good levels to take profit. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION (revised downwards): BEARISH ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- * On July 21 we broke the resistance formed by i) the (black) descending triangle; ii) the 21-daily SMA and EMA; iii) the 9,250 level. * Volume is moderate and decreasing. * We hit resistance at the 50-daily SMA and the 21- 3daily SMA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GeertVD