Bitstampbtcusd
$BTC #Bitcoin - Head and Shoulders wishful thinking - EXPLAINED!Hello Lads and Ladies,
Everyone is looking at the possible Head and Shoulders formation playing out and I have to admit that I was one of the first people to call this formation but as soon as I started seeing this TA almost EVERYWHERE, I got very sceptical and started looking for reasons against my own TA.
First of all, this is the ugliest and weirdest HnS formation I have ever seen. We have clear breakouts from this formation, with these breakouts a double bottom at our new support, the tips of the shoulder do not match and also the bounces and volume lack completely. In my opinion this HnS is simply wishful thinking.
The very first thing that should have happened is a clear rejection from the neckline and a very steep drop.
If you watched the price and the drops, we basically had small 100-250$ drops followed by a sidewards movement. This is not how this formation should play out. We should see nice and steady drops with very small stops but not take two days to decide what to do and then start climbing down.**Again, this is exactly what I mean with KNOW YOUR CHART - you might see candles and base your TA on it but only from that you don't know what happened "inside" this candle so assumptions only based on single candles is not very reliable (See also the last green candle that touched the 6800$ as we talked about it, this was only in the last 15 min of the day but it is displayed as if the whole day was just going up..)**
This is already weird but still alright as long as we are going down. So the next step would have been to fall down to 6150-6050 (like the left shoulder) and then have a bounce above the candle which touched the "bottom". Again.. we saw a 250$ bounce which took almost more than 24h and during that time we have crossed 6150 multiple times and even touched 6100 yesterday. Now with all sanity, is this what should happen in a HnS formation? Is this how you bounce? Is this HnS formation still valid? ABSOLUTELY NOT.
What people expect here to happen is a beautiful bounce, a trend reversal, a movement to 7k and maybe the end of he bear market, unfortunately in my opinion everyone betting on this scenario will get slapped in the face harder than expected. I can tell you why.
For this very beautiful scenario to happen we REALLY need to find a strong bottom. First of all, since when is $6100 a bottom..? We have set a new bottom at $5800 and first we need to confirm that this is the bottom we are looking for. To confirm this, we need too come down to it again. As I see it, this MIGHT be our bottom but I consider to it a higher chance to be "the bottom before the bottom" (M.Slogget) and the longer it takes us to get to it and we keep climbing down stairs, the deeper we will go.
The reason for this is very simple and can be explained with something everyone knows here - the market bloodbath. To find a bottom we have to crash REALLY hard, we have to see these double digit negative numbers again to be really at a bottom and then not just for one day but 2-4 days straight red digits, so we are REALLY REALLY at the bottom, all indicators are down and everything is set to go up because there is nowhere else to go.
I HOPED, that we will see that whenever we touch the neckline and everything will start crashing at that point. Instead what we saw was more comparable to an easy walk down the stairs with a complete lack of any volume and momentum. The awaited $1000 bounce was only 250$ high and took two days - this is ridiculous.
Bitcoin IHS or are we headed definitively lower? (1H & 3D)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has finally been making some movement that we can look at, and it's nothing that we haven't been talking about as a possibility for a while now. Specifically, overnight we saw Bitcoin retrace 50% from its recent run up. Now things are becoming more interesting. The potential IHS in development that I have been referring to recently is becoming more likely.
The 1H chart is showing strong oversold conditions that mirror the previous lows below $6000. As such, it doesn't appear to be likely to fall much further without first targeting the 50% retracement of this recent downward movement at around $6572. This would put price right under the pivot. In order to do so, we need to see price bounce off its current support at S1.
In regard to the daily pivot, just because we have breached it does not mean we have to continue lower. I discussed this possibility in yesterday's live streams, especially if this is Wave 2 in the making. What we need to see is price movement upward, whether it's from this current position or a bit lower as price tests the previous 2 month long resistance line as support. If this has been Wave 1 and we are currently completing Wave 2, then we should expect price to reach R1 on the 3D for Wave 3, which is the 1.618 extension at $7510, and potentially R2 around the 2.618 extension at $8594, R3 around the 3.618 extension of $9678, or R4 around the 4.236 extension at $10,348 for Wave 5 depending on the amount of FOMO.
Be sure to check out the 6H and 1D charts linked below.
Bitcoin IHS or are we headed definitively lower? (1D & 6H)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has finally been making some movement that we can look at, and it's nothing that we haven't been talking about as a possibility for a while now. Specifically, overnight we saw Bitcoin retrace 50% from its recent run up. Now things are becoming more interesting. The potential IHS in development that I have been referring to recently is becoming more likely.
The 1D chart shows the bigger picture. We can see the potential IHS playing out. However, as I have continued to mention anytime we discuss a potential IHS, we absolutely must see an expansion of volume as price completes the right shoulder and breaches the neckline. This is a requirement for this pattern. We have expansion into the shoulder's potential apex so far. Is this current price point the bottom of this movement? It appears that it may be when looking at lower time frames. We see that price made its low right into the top of the blue box before bouncing back up. I continue to watch for the blue box to hold as support. Furthermore, I am watching the daily candle. The daily pivot remains important, so we want to see price moving back up toward it. As we have discussed previously, a successful IHS should see price targeting the $7900 area.
The 6H chart shows us that the candles wicked into the blue box but the body on the previous candle closed above it and the current candle is sitting above it as well. While there are still 4 hours left in this candle, it is possible we may see tweezer bottoms being supported by the Kijun line near the bottom of the cloud thereby suggesting a reversal back up. Looking at it another way, the S1 is supporting price at this time. As always, a reversal off of support is significant. RSI appears to be adhering to its ascending support line, but that doesn't guarantee that it will not breach it. Remember, there is the potential for an IHS, but price and volume must follow through in order to see it materialize. Price falling below $6100 increases the odds significantly that we will retest the recent lows and likely head lower toward $5250.
Be sure to check out the 1H and 3D charts linked below.
$BTC #Bitcoin Head and Shoulders seems like a very likely optionThis is just a short idea that I have seen directly after todays push.
For me there is very strong resistance @6800 and that might hold, we might see BTC hanging there for a few days and then going back down, regaining some deep RSI points and starting a new rally from there on.
As it is right now, I don't believe that Bitcoin will get REKT wishing 1 day. It will have its little bounces all along because now many people are buying dips again and there are man signs for a new bull run very soon.
Nevertheless, I am saying very soon because we had a lot of very green days in the last time now and people are getting a little too excited and forget to take profits.
I am going to do a more detailed Bitcoin analysis this week, stay tuned!!
Like and Follow me and you will find this page interesting because I am a TA expert and day trader that does daily updates and new posts about the hottest and most discussed coins.
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Cheers, Tomas
Bitcoin's retracement as potential cause for bullishness (1)Good Tuesday morning, traders. Price is doing what I mentioned that it needed to do last night -- retracing. Buyside needs the time to recollect itself before another push upward. Failure to do so results in a failed push and lack of energy for the buyside to negate the effects of the sellside which could see price falling further downward. Retracement is an important step in bullish momentum.
As we discussed last night, price breached the 2 month old resistance this weekend and then followed it up with an inside bar on July 1st and confirmation via the bullish engulfing candle on July 2nd. This is a technical sign that price is primed to continue upward. Furthermore, we can see that daily price action has created a descending broadening wedge with four alternating touches of resistance and support which gives us reason to believe a breach of the upper resistance is in the works. The retracement should give buyside the energy to follow through with this breach and continue upward. This is all in addition to the weekly which shows tweezer bottoms (an indication that price reversal is occurring).
The 1h chart shows us that a possible bearish pennant is being formed. The low of that pennant found support at the previous swing high of June 29th. A breach of the lower support of that pennant could see a potential ABCD pattern printing. This would find price dropping to the short dotted horizontal line and ultimately finding support along the ascending dotted line. That would give price a retracement of around 38.2% on this latest push up as well as place the retracement bottom within Wave 4 of the previous 5 wave movement. To be fair, I don't like price only retracing to that level. I would much rather see a retracement toward $6350-$6470. This would give buyside the best chance of significant upside progress. In addition, price would have the opportunity to retest the prior 2 month long resistance as support.
As shown in the 6 hour chart, Wave 4 is within the horizontal orange channel so the aforementioned lower levels of retracement that I would like to see would be possible. This means that if the previous movement up is a legitimate 5 wave set (larger Wave 1), then this current price action is the correction (larger Wave 2) leading to the next 5 wave set (larger Wave 3). Price finding a bottom for this retracement in the orange box would be more evidence of this being the likely case. In such a case, we would then expect the next wave up to target the 1.618 extension at around $7238. RSI is running a bit hot on most time frames, but if this the beginning of the reversal then that is expected and we should see price continuing upward anyway as the bullish momentum takes over and pushes price harder.
Bitcoin's retracement as potential cause for bullishness (2)Good Tuesday morning, traders. Price is doing what I mentioned that it needed to do last night -- retracing. Buyside needs the time to recollect itself before another push upward. Failure to do so results in a failed push and lack of energy for the buyside to negate the effects of the sellside which could see price falling further downward. Retracement is an important step in bullish momentum.
As we discussed last night, price breached the 2 month old resistance this weekend and then followed it up with an inside bar on July 1st and confirmation via the bullish engulfing candle on July 2nd. This is a technical sign that price is primed to continue upward. Furthermore, we can see that daily price action has created a descending broadening wedge with four alternating touches of resistance and support which gives us reason to believe a breach of the upper resistance is in the works. The retracement should give buyside the energy to follow through with this breach and continue upward. This is all in addition to the weekly which shows tweezer bottoms (an indication that price reversal is occurring).
The 1h chart shows us that a possible bearish pennant is being formed. The low of that pennant found support at the previous swing high of June 29th. A breach of the lower support of that pennant could see a potential ABCD pattern printing. This would find price dropping to the short dotted horizontal line and ultimately finding support along the ascending dotted line. That would give price a retracement of around 38.2% on this latest push up as well as place the retracement bottom within Wave 4 of the previous 5 wave movement. To be fair, I don't like price only retracing to that level. I would much rather see a retracement toward $6350-$6470. This would give buyside the best chance of significant upside progress. In addition, price would have the opportunity to retest the prior 2 month long resistance as support.
As shown in the 6 hour chart, Wave 4 is within the horizontal orange channel so the aforementioned lower levels of retracement that I would like to see would be possible. This means that if the previous movement up is a legitimate 5 wave set (larger Wave 1), then this current price action is the correction (larger Wave 2) leading to the next 5 wave set (larger Wave 3). Price finding a bottom for this retracement in the orange box would be more evidence of this being the likely case. In such a case, we would then expect the next wave up to target the 1.618 extension at around $7238. RSI is running a bit hot on most time frames, but if this the beginning of the reversal then that is expected and we should see price continuing upward anyway as the bullish momentum takes over and pushes price harder.
$BTC #Bitcoin - Is Satoshi communicating to us???Hello Lads and Ladies,
This is just a joke to make your day even better and kill all toxic thoughts from the last days!!
The question is though, what is Bitcoin trying to say us?? Or is here even Satoshi trying to communicate to us?!?! Tell me what you think abut that and what might happen next!!
Nevertheless, I see it coming down a little and turning the blue lines into support, from where we could easily get a little rest and start something great again!!! If the blue lines (around 6250) don't hold, I think we will go down even more.
If the resistance at 6800 breaks and we can turn it into support, it looks very nice and we will be heading towards 7800.
Like and Follow me and you will find this page interesting because I am a TA expert and day trader that does daily updates and new posts about the hottest and most discussed coins.
Fell free to request TA for ANY coin you are interested in!!!
Cheers, Tomas
$BTC #BITCOIN - BIG MOVE - why did I expect that?Hello Lads and Ladies,
today we are looking at BTCUSD and there was a reason why I did not do TA on it until now. I was waiting for it to make its classical move up with the 4h candle.
This $500 tall green candle was a move that we see quite often with BTCUSD. I personally expected a even taller candle up to the region of $6800 but that one might still have a chance.
Right now we are sitting right in between two very strong uptrend support lines, which are playing their game now as resistance. The relieving part about this is that we actually broke both of them and are locating ourselves in the middle right now.
Furthermore, we have touched and shortly broken this resistance a few days ago and we came back, even with making a very new low at $5800. The thing about supports and resistances it, the more you touch them the higher is the possibility to break it the next time.
I am trying to keep this short. So what might happen next?
As the next movement I see BTCUSD forming a wedge by keeping this resistance at $6250 with a possible low at $5950. As I believe more in the bullish situation, we would have to break this wedge going up and with that breaking the yellow downtrend resistance. The best scenario of doing so would be with a second big green candle up to $6800. By doing so we would reduce the chances significantly of seeing $5200.
As much everyone would love seeing this bullish scenario happening, there is a second bearish possibility. Again after forming a wedge, failing to break through resistance and falling down to to the next level of support at $5650 or concerning that movements downtrend to break through important supports, even $5200.
To get this straight out of the way. We need to turn that $6800 resistance into support to be in a RATHER safe region and reversing the trend. To do so, we would have to see push towards $7200 or at least $7000, this might happen very fast and within a few hours as we have seen BTCUSD pumping 1.5k within one hour before. ANYHOW, until this does not happen, we are NOT safe at all and could fall down ANYTIME, please keep this in mind.
BTCUSD Downtrend still intact Looking at the log scale of BTCUSD daily we can see the price still under the major downtrend line.
At the moment the price is fighting the 61.80% level of the major Bullish structure.
To me to consider BTC bullish again we have to see prices out of the MA50 and the downtrend line after breaking out the Fib 61.80%
Anyway MACD, and RSI over 50 , supports bullish movement. i think we can see prices around 8620$ and 9000$ in the next days.
If price won't break the Fib level at 8167$ the next support is at 6610$.
btcusd ideaidea for next movement of price btc usd. again it's risky but i'll try. i think we can dive a little bit deeper. i signed this on chart (be ready for this movement).
[BTC] Little peak of Wall Street's sell-off scheduleWS will sell til March 2nd-8th.
Have your seatbelts on for the drop.
BULL TRAPS incoming on the way as well.
*Do your own research. Do not blindly follow this though.
Bull trend line scince 16-7 will it hold ?Let's see what's gonna happen
1- RSI approaching 30 zone which is possible reversal zone
2- This trend line is strong one holding since 16-7
3-10000 is basically a psychological value (almost 50% retracement from previous high )
Head And Shoulder completion on XRPUSD Ripple This pattern shows up on both XRPUSD and XRPEUR 11.80% the completion with good reaction at the $1.62 shows that profit taking has nearly all but ended and new money is slowing again entering the market.
Price should begin to retest $2.50 and a bullish brakeout above that.
Potential H&S formingI don't really rely much on chart pattern, as most of the time they just don't work in Bitcoin, especially pattern like ascending/descending triangle, but it's worth paying attention.
Support/Resistance
Currently we're seeing $7344 as a temporary support, and middle bollinger band as next support. $7500 is still acting as a resistance, we see lot of profits taking on this level.
We go straight to the moon or?We have a $500 pullback after hitting $7500 yesterday, this may be the psychological level people taking profits, right now in this 15m chart we're seeing that the short-term downward trend line is broken, but what we need now is a solid bull volume confirmation, otherwise it doesn't mean it's over yet.
It could also go sideways as SegWit2X fork is not far from now, about 11 days and 17 hours when writing this.
SegWit2X Countdown: coinsalad.com
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Bitcoin consolidation after a new all-time high at $7354After a nearly $2000 bull run from the last low, we're seemed to reach the bull volume climax, and now in an equilibrium pattern. A few hundreds pullback from the last all-time high is a consolidation, which you can see it clearly on the daily and 4-hour time frame, everything still looks healthy. We are definitely still in a bullish trend, but I will not enter any position until there's a signal of a stronger trend.
Support/Resistance
At the moment we have $6971 as support, which is in line with 0.5 fibs, there are 3 attempts that failed to close below this level. $7082 is acting as resistance, 3 attempts failed to close above as well.
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Bitcoin now retesting 5720 support at BitstampI wouldn't go short now without a clear direction where the price is going, 5720 is a strong support, and below that there's multiple support there. We're still in an upward trend in a longer time frame, so I'd say it's still a healthy consolidation.
Ready for next All-Time-High?We're now retesting the resistance 5721 at Bitstamp, which rejected multiple times previously. If we close above this resistance, we can watch the volume of next candle as a reference, if it's confirmed we can anticipate a new high.
BTC / USD Market Cycles + 14 Day TrendAll Fibs were drawn on 1D candles. Both pitch fans were drawn on 4HR candles and are used for the forecast line. Potential new cycle beginning on the white trending support line?
