Ibit bullish supply zoneI think here ibit its very bullish from here but also its too much risky anyway this with Hong Kong etf maybe can force the market price to go up
Blackrock
Hedera Foundation Token $HBAR Token Surged 96% Hedera's CRYPTOCAP:HBAR token has experienced a whirlwind of activity, soaring by 96% within 24 hours on the heels of a misinterpreted announcement regarding BlackRock's involvement. While excitement surged over the tokenization of a BlackRock money market fund on the Hedera blockchain, clarifications soon tempered the frenzy, leading to an 18% drop in CRYPTOCAP:HBAR 's price.
Misconceptions and Reality:
The catalyst for CRYPTOCAP:HBAR 's meteoric rise stemmed from a misinterpreted announcement by the HBAR Foundation X, suggesting a partnership between BlackRock, Archax, and Ownera in tokenizing a BlackRock fund. However, subsequent clarifications revealed that BlackRock was merely aware of the move on-chain, with Archax taking the initiative to tokenize BlackRock's ICS US Treasury Fund. The discrepancy between perception and reality underscores the importance of clear communication in the crypto space to mitigate misinformation and prevent market overreactions.
Community Reaction and Clarifications:
Crypto influencers and industry observers initially seized upon the announcement, believing BlackRock's direct involvement in the tokenization project. However, voices of skepticism, including Cardano Ghost Fund DAO founder Chris O'Connor, highlighted the need for accurate interpretation and cautioned against premature conclusions. Clarifications from Archax co-founder Graham Rodford shed light on the nature of the collaboration, emphasizing that all parties involved were aware of the tokenization initiative, but BlackRock's role was limited to awareness rather than active participation.
Market Volatility and Long-term Prospects:
HBAR's rollercoaster ride, marked by a surge followed by a correction, underscores the inherent volatility of the crypto market and the susceptibility to speculative fervor. Despite the setback, HBAR's price remains elevated, reflecting sustained interest in the token and optimism surrounding its potential. The recent approval of significant funds for Hedera network development further underscores the platform's commitment to growth and innovation, laying the groundwork for future advancements and ecosystem expansion.
Technical Outlook
CRYPTOCAP:HBAR token is still poised for a reversal trend despite dipping by 18%. The crypto asset is trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 60.70 giving room for further surge or price consolidation.
Hbar just hit the breakout target of the teal channelAfter the bullish news connecting hedara hashgraph with blackrock hbar saw a massive bullish impulse today reaching the full breakout target of this teal channel and then some. If it does an inverse Bart move here expect it to go considerably higher but for now the initial target has been hit so pullbacks, corrections, or consolidations are always possible before the enxt leg up. *not financial advice*
BlackRock & Jio Financial To Launch Wealth Management in IndiaMumbai-based Jio Financial Services (JFS) and US asset management firm BlackRock ( NYSE:BLK ) have announced their intention to establish wealth management and brokerage services in India. As per the filing made with the National Stock Exchange of India, the joint venture will be equally divided between the two firms, thereby resulting in the inception of two separate companies. The proposed structure is similar to the previous agreement announced in July 2020, which resulted in a suite of asset management services for the Indian investment community. The investment of $300 million in this current joint venture will leverage JFS's digital infrastructure capabilities, local market knowledge, and robust execution capabilities.
JFS, formerly a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, presently offers retail and business banking services, including a digital banking app, loans, insurance options, and merchant-focused payment solutions. The new venture, subject to regulatory approval, will expand the partnership's offerings to include regional wealth management and brokerage services. While the exact nature of the proposed services remains unclear, this initiative is expected to provide a significant boost to India's fast-emerging retail investor market, particularly given BlackRock's current standing as the world's largest asset manager.
ONDO Finance and BlackRock: Pioneering Stability in DeFiUnpacking the Surge in ONDO's Value: Insights into the BlackRock and USDY Dynamics
🚀 Strategic Alliance with BlackRock
ONDO Finance's collaboration with BlackRock through the USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund to back its OUSG token is a landmark in the convergence of traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi). This partnership not only enhances ONDO's credibility but also its stability, by integrating real-world financial mechanisms into the blockchain.
Why is This Partnership Significant?
Real-World Assets (RWA) : The core of this collaboration involves tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs), which brings a tangible and stable asset base into the DeFi ecosystem. This integration is critical as it provides a stable collateral base for ONDO’s tokens, particularly the USDY - a yield-bearing stablecoin alternative.
Institutional Trust and Security : BlackRock's reputation and regulatory experience lend substantial trust and an added layer of security to ONDO’s offerings, making them attractive to more conservative institutional investors.
🌐 Impact on Market Value
The BlackRock partnership has been instrumental in driving up the price of ONDO tokens, with the market reacting positively to the increased security and potential for higher liquidity offered by backed stablecoin alternatives like USDY. Here’s how it adds value:
Enhanced Liquidity and Stability : By backing tokens with US treasuries and other traditional assets, the partnership mitigates typical cryptocurrency risks such as volatility and liquidity crunches.
Market Expansion : The use of RWAs opens up cryptocurrency investments to a segment of investors who prefer assets that have a real-world linkage, thus broadening the market base.
📊 Rationale Behind the Rising Prices
Incorporating BlackRock’s liquidity fund not only stabilizes ONDO's financial products but also enhances their appeal:
Trust in RWAs : Investors are more inclined to trust and invest in products that are backed by real-world assets, which promise steadier returns and lower volatility compared to traditional cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory Advantage : Collaboration with an established financial entity like BlackRock may ease regulatory pressures commonly faced in the DeFi space, making ONDO’s offerings more palatable to global investors.
Forward Outlook
This strategic move is set to redefine the boundaries between traditional finance and DeFi. The inclusion of USDY and its backing through RWAs provides a replicable model for future financial products in the cryptocurrency world that could attract further institutional involvement.
Stay tuned for more updates as ONDO leverages this innovative approach to enhance the stability, trustworthiness, and functionality of its ecosystem. This partnership with BlackRock not only bolsters ONDO's market position but also sets a precedent for the integration of real-world assets in blockchain technologies.
This pivotal development is not merely a boost for ONDO but signals a potential shift for broader financial markets towards integrating more seamlessly with the burgeoning DeFi sector.
ONDO 4H After a big flash crash during Friday seeing BTC once again test the 4H 200EMA support, the altcoin market took a much bigger hit that we've seen for some time.
In these times it's always good to see how projects react to these market conditions. A strong reaction at key areas after a big pullback can show that there are big players willing to add to or make new positions further increasing the validity of that support level and giving the project a platform to continue moving up. The best case we've seen of this is ONDO, as the chart shows a perfect pullback into the FIB levels which align with a bullish OB provide a great support area, a strong reaction has put price back to where it originally was before dropping with a textbook V-shaped recovery which is rarely found across the crypto market right now.
ONDO is a big player in the RWA sector, a lending protocol supporting tokenized securities as collateral. With open collaboration with massive entities such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley and Larry Fink personally saying he believes in a Tokenised future. I think it's easy to see why the recovery has been so strong, perhaps even BlackRock themselves buying up the dip?
I think the future of ONDO is bright, now a TOP 100 coin and big time backers targeting range high will be dependent on BTC but with the halving coming soon I believe it will behave. Next Target is $1, the FIB EXTENSION levels often give good price targets but one step at a time.
ZILLOW, WILLOW WHEREOW THE PRICE GO? imma be honest, I'm running out of creative titles, so you get what you get.
Trends labeled
Price targets labeled.
really neat setup on zillow here.
These buy zones are marked at some major support, we have a short term trend leading to a top, and may have already hit. We have a long term support trend going in the bearish price direction.
All of the above can help determine potential price movements.
With RSI being overextended, the market as a whole, there is potential for quick downside right past support trend, into the zones of major price support, which will then create even stronger support, which will allow the price to keep climbing back up.
I'm hesitant to predict anything before seeing where it heads into earnings (13th labeled)
BUT..
IDK, something like this maybe?
Essentially, I don't know how it will look, or how steep it goes, but it's good to be prepared for some potential scenarios. This chart can cover quite a few of them if you're patient and wait for the right trade.
Overall, I would suggest being careful, and should the price go up before going down, it might be a better option to look for a short entry and ride the price down than jumping into a long position, especially with how this chart looks.
Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Bear Market: A Technical Outlook 📊"DISCLAIMER!! This is a 'worst-case' scenario/theory which is still bullish. Bitcoin also has a "monthly bearish-divergence on monthly, which would be the first time this has printed on the Bitcoin: INDEX chart. Also there are other variables such as black-swans/wars, CME-GAP, Declining volume on this whole 'rally' up. Also the first time Bitcoin has made a new all-time-high before a halving.(Blackrock-manipulation(prolonging bear-market-rally) ""
"My current theoretical analysis suggests Bitcoin is testing a breakout from the cyclical triangle pattern observed in the last market cycle. If confirmed, this could signal the end of the bear market. There are speculations that BlackRock may have engaged in strategic market activities, potentially inflating Bitcoin's value to create a bullish sentiment during a bear market rally. This orchestrated optimism is believed to have sustained the price levels."
Revisiting Triangular Patterns: A Classic Continuation? 🔺✨
Bitcoin's recent price actions suggest a retest of the structural integrity within a macro triangular pattern. Despite the bearish sentiments, the chart displays a potential 'higher low,' indicating an underlying strength. This scenario, if supported by volume and market participation, could signal the tapering off of the bear market.
Black Swan Events and Market Dynamics 🦢🔄
The term 'Black swans' references unforeseen events with substantial market impact. The chart alludes to such events as pivotal in Bitcoin's trajectory, though it's critical to recognize that market manipulation allegations like those suggested against Black Rock require substantial evidence and are beyond technical analysis purview.
Bullish Sentiments and Market Manipulation Claims 📈⚖️
While the narrative of market manipulation can influence short-term price movements, long-term trends in Bitcoin have shown resilience to such factors. The claim that bullish sentiments have artificially sustained prices is challenging to substantiate without concrete data.
Higher-Low: The Bullish Bastion ⬆️🛡️
The chart points to a 'higher-low' formation, a classic bullish signal. This pattern reflects buyers stepping in at higher price levels than previous lows, suggesting an upward momentum.
Bear Market Exit: A Technically Supported Theory? 🐻🔚
The conclusion that Bitcoin is testing the last cycle's triangle apex could be indicative of a bear market conclusion. However, this would need validation through other indicators like moving averages, RSI, and MACD, beyond the scope of the current visual data.
Takeaway: Analyzing the Apex 🎯📝
Bitcoin's endurance of a macro 'higher-low' amidst a bearish cycle suggests optimism. However, reliance on a single pattern or market rumors for prediction is precarious. A holistic technical analysis, incorporating diverse indicators and market sentiment, provides a more robust framework for future price movement speculation.
Conclusion: Informed Caution Is Key 🔍🔑
While the theory presents an optimistic case for Bitcoin, prudent investors should seek confirmation through a broad technical lens, mindful of market volatility and the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies.
📈 Please note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Always conduct thorough research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BLK BlackRock Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on BLK:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BLK BlackRock prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 760usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-10,
for a premium of approximately $11.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BlackRock Hits Record $10.5 Trillion in Assets Under ManagementIn a financial feat that has stunned market analysts, BlackRock ( NYSE:BLK ) has shattered records, boasting a staggering $10.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM) in the first quarter. This milestone, coupled with a remarkable 36% surge in profit, underscores BlackRock's dominance in the global investment landscape.
The surge in AUM, propelled by a robust rebound in global equity markets, reflects investor confidence in BlackRock's prowess in navigating volatile market conditions. As expectations of rate cuts by major central banks gained traction, investors flocked to BlackRock ( NYSE:BLK ), driving a remarkable 15% increase in AUM compared to the previous year.
While the investment advisory and administration fees soared nearly 8.8% to $3.63 billion, total net inflows experienced a dip to $57 billion from $110 billion a year earlier. This softness in inflows is attributed to cautious investor behavior, with many waiting on the sidelines for interest rate cuts before reentering riskier assets.
Analysts foresee a resurgence in asset management industry flows post-interest rate cuts, anticipating a migration of cash reserves from the sidelines into riskier assets. BlackRock's total revenue surged 11% to $4.73 billion in the quarter, fueled by higher performance fees, technology revenue, and the impact of surging markets on average AUM.
BlackRock's robust performance extends beyond traditional investment management. Its technology revenue witnessed a remarkable 10.9% jump to $377 million, indicative of sustained demand for its Aladdin investment management platform. This platform has become indispensable for retail and institutional clients globally, including sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and large corporations.
The company's stellar financial performance is further underscored by its impressive net income of $1.57 billion, or $10.48 per share, in the first quarter, compared to $1.16 billion, or $7.64 per share, a year earlier.
While BlackRock's shares have experienced a slight dip of about 3.2% this year, underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index, its commanding position in the asset management industry remains unchallenged. As markets continue to evolve, BlackRock's unwavering commitment to innovation and excellence positions it for continued success in navigating the complexities of the global financial landscape.
SHOR WELLS FARGO IDEA BACK TO 48 TP KEY FACTORSThe stock price of Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) can be influenced by several key factors:
Interest Rates: Wells Fargo is a big beneficiary of rising interest rates. When the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark overnight lending rate, it positively impacts banks. Wells Fargo’s margins widen as yields on interest-earning assets (such as loans) reprice higher with the federal funds rate, while the yields on interest-bearing liabilities (like deposits) remain relatively stable. The recent hawkish stance by the Fed, with expectations of multiple rate hikes, further supports Wells Fargo’s profitability.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts’ revisions to earnings estimates play a crucial role. When earnings estimates for a company go up, its stock’s fair value tends to increase as well. Wells Fargo’s expected earnings per share for the current quarter and fiscal year are important indicators. Although the consensus estimates have changed slightly, they still impact investor sentiment.
Efficiency Initiatives: Wells Fargo is conducting a multi-year efficiency initiative to cut annual expenses and streamline operations. If successful, this could positively affect the bank’s profitability and stock price.
Asset Cap Removal: The asset cap imposed on Wells Fargo since 2018 (due to the phony-accounts scandal) restricts the bank from growing its balance sheet. Investors hope that the removal of this cap will enhance the stock’s valuation and overall performance.
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9
Last weeks low: $64863.9
Midpoint: $60752.0
Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first.
So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price.
I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion.
The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. .
This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally.
25 Days to The Halving
This weeks focus:
- BTC S/R Flip
- ETH RWA's
Market Update - March 28, 2024
LSE announces launch of new crypto ETNs as BTC ETFs reverse outflow trend: The London Stock Exchange announced this week that they plan to launch BTC and ETH ETNs by the end of May, signaling further ongoing interest in crypto-related products. Coupled with a reversal in BTC ETF outflows, these developments have helped to renew market optimism and push the price of BTC back above the $70K level, a +15% rise from the low of $61K only one week ago.
BlackRock steps further into digital assets with launch of BUIDL: The BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, called BUIDL, will allow qualified investors to earn U.S. dollar yields paid out through blockchain technology, with the fund holding its assets in cash, U.S. Treasury bills, and repurchase agreements. Following BlackRock’s announcement, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) sector received increased attention, leading to outperformance this week.
DOJ charges, CFTC enforcement action, lead to 15% outflows at Kucoin: KuCoin, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, saw a 15% drop in the exchange's assets following news that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) had charged KuCoin and two of its founders with violating U.S. Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws. Also this week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also announced it filed a civil enforcement action against Kucoin.
Merger news emerges among three of the biggest AI-related tokens in the space: On Wednesday, Bloomberg M&A announced that three of the biggest AI-related tokens in the space, SingularityNet, Fetch.ai, and Ocean Protocol, are in talks to merge their tokens into one single AltSignals (ASI) token in a bid to improve their efforts at developing a decentralized AI platform. Following the merger, the fully diluted value (FDV) would be ~$7.5B.
🇪🇺Topic of the Week: What is MiCA?
👉 Read more here
LTC, the Sleeping Giant now break out!! its ready to takeoff!!Technical Analysis: #LTC (Monthly Update)
#Litecoin now breakout the 238 days accumulation zone, This is just the beginning of new uptrend.
#Litecoin is ready to take off and looks too bullish, it will ready to test its previous high and make new ATH at year-end or earlier.
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🔥 Bitcoin Near All-Time High: What Does History Tell?In this analysis I want to take a look at Bitcoin's historical behaviour at the moment that it made new all-time highs (ATH's), and make a prediction based on those findings.
As seen on the bottom two charts, Bitcoin has ALWAYS reversed substantially from the previous ATH's area of resistance (note: the area around the ATH functions as resistance, not the exact value).
2017: ~33% correction.
2020: ~17% correction.
This time it remains to be seen how much we will reverse. Seeing that corrections (and pumps) become less extreme with time, it's likely that it will be less than 17%.
In my view, the most likely scenario would be a reversal towards the first yellow area of support (1), which would be around 11% decline from 69k. The worst-case temporary reversal would be a fall towards the second area of support (2), around 25% decline.
In the long-term I'm still bullish. However, we have to acknowledge that historical price action is against the bulls. On the other hand, this might be the last time we can buy BTC for these price for the next 1-2 years.
You're not buying Bitcoin because it's too expensive. Boomers...are buying IBIT at 39
thinking it can hit 100
welcome to unit bias
something to think about
Just a thought that popped into my head..
Coinbase Denies Retail Buy-In at 59-60k!Traders,
I've been seeing a ton of traders who wanted to buy BTC at 59-60k but their transaction "failed". There is a reason why I am now calling BTC, Blackrock Trading Coin and why I have been extra cynical and skeptical about Blackrock's crypto trading exchange, Coinbase, as well as their entry into the crypto space via ETF. But I won't get into conjecture or conspiracy here. Just watch. You'll witness more shenanigans just like this the higher price goes.
Anyways, we can use Coinbase's buying rejection at 59-60k as further proof that this was the bottom of our liquidation flush. Notice how on my chart the wick down touched exactly that top ascending purple trend line. Once hit, we quickly bounced back above my multi-year ascending support/resistance (now support) trend line from 2019. As long as we stay above this line, I am completely comfortable and confident that our upward journey will continue.
Remember, there is no escaping the math here. ETFs are simply demanding far more than miners can produce. Only 24% of BTC remains liquid. And there is burgeoning institutional demand for BTC ETFs in a growing number of countries. All this before halving. There is no way to get around these fundamental facts. Fundamentals supersede technical analysis in this case. And this is coming from someone who touts technical analysis most of the time.
Fundamentals are priority but we can see that technicals are supporting fundamentals. Look also at that RSI. Finally, it gets a break and is able to drop back below overbought territory. Altcoin RSI readings look even better.
I suspect when all the dust settles and price closes out this candle we may even be back above that 64.8k support. But if we're not and we settle anywhere above my multi-year line of support, I remain bullishly biased and expect us to hit our inverse H&S target of 79k soon.
Best,
Stewdamus
Bitcoin Bulls Are Not Quitting HereTraders,
As you might know, I went short on BTC at 60,500. That was when price lived just under our Multi-Year Support/Resistance TL from 2019. Obviously, I was betting that we would NOT break straight through. I was wrong and as I told my followers in our private chat, I never mind trading a bit of humility for some profit. Bulls have clearly demonstrated that they are in complete and total control. When the charts show me proof that I was wrong and new developments are in the making, I will quickly bow to the data. I know from experience that if I don't, I may lose valuable lost opportunities to profit more in the future if I don't.
More evidence of bull control comes in the way of the following technical developments:
Confirmation of a break above our TL
Bull Flag formed above our TL
New BLUE ascending TL spotted from 2022
Target of my Inverse H&S meets BLUE TL Exactly!
As you may be aware, I have now exited my BTC short and pending further price action on Monday I may begin to re-enter BTC LONG.
Until that time, I will be scouting for laggard altcoins that may still have time to pop further in attempts to play catch up.
Apologies to TradingView people but I don't always have time to post all of my trades here.
Stew
DEVVE Awaiting breakout to double digitsDevve, a layer 1 blockchain with 8m tps focused on ESG just launched and currently sits at a 15M market cap. It has has a French license and perfectly fits the institutional cycle we're in. Check their official website for more info.
Breakout is near with testnet launch in March. Already above downwards sloping resistance. A break of $1.50 would lead us towards ATH, which after retest would lead us towards $10. Current supply is only 20M coins.
If you read this during Feb/March 2024, you're early.
Financial Titans Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThese are the largest financial institutions in the world. BlackRock, BlackStone, State Street Corporation, American Express Company. CME Group, NY Bank of Mellon Corporation, and Vangaurd. This is not a Bank Sector Idea. This is a Financial Conglomerate type of idea rather than individual banks. Because these companies realistically OWN the banks.
BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard are the main three who own most of the stocks and therefore many percentages of tons companies.
-The "Dot Com" means they were formed from the Dot Com Bubble.
-The Collapse of the Bretton Woods System was in 1973. This is where we switched from a gold standard to the dollar standard.
-Black Monday of 1987 was a global market crash which was blamed on Computer Algorithms... HINT HINT: What you are looking at. "algorithms don't describe it well enough.
Bearish Rsi divergenceBearish Rsi divergence onweekly chart price weakness in btc Grayscale & Blackrock etf profit booking started Go short Downside fall chance possible ealthy correction btc soon in next 2-4 weeks price consoildate in 40-43k book your profits on long positions as soon as possible
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money.
The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below.
I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different.
So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m.
The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897.
Let's call it a little over 820 Billion.
At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion.
Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029.
This is only one aspect of the story.
Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent"
Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now.
Here's the actual chart.
What does this mean?
Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH.
Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH.
So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too.
Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's.
I've posted several times about the current COT landscape.
Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise.
Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity.
So why is this different?
I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move.
The second option was bearish.
Well, I guess the second move played out.
The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching.
Look at the momentum
People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again.
This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings.
All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic.
I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards.
They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold.
When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset.
This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin.
Hence it fits into the greater fool theory.
If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200.
You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do.
The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k.
These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch?
So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k.
Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET...
Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post.
Stay safe!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITCOIN SELL TO $12,000📉In the Crypto Fund we hold a bearish bias on the Crypto market overall for our investors, including on BTC. On this retracement back up, we’ve capitalised on several buy positions & cashed in profit💰 Now time for the move back down!
⭕️Wave 4 Complete, Wave 5 Pending.
⭕️3 Sub-Waves (A,B,C) Complete.
⭕️Bullish Momentum Slowing Down.
⭕️BTC ETF Negative For Growth.
