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15/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48987.12 Last weeks low: $45231.94 Midpoint: $41476.76 Following such a historical week with the approval of the BTC ETF's on Wednesday 10th of January. BITCOIN reached a local high of 49K, since then price has fallen towards 41.5K (15% drop). Price action this week is hard to predict as the ETF narrative has been driving BTC and crypto for quite a while now, with this even over and price falling after the news broke we are now at a crossroads where being bullish here could easily be punished, the halving is months away and the majority of smart money have made nearly 3x gains in one year predominantly due to the ETF narrative and the selling pressure is now high as investors have made substantial gains. On the other hand we have BlackRock who just acquired $10m (11,500 BTC) and other funds looking to do the same, FOMO in these situations can play a huge part as retail investors simply won't want to take the risk and see prices fall lower before buying as they're scared prices will just leave them behind soon. ETF funds obviously want to buy cheap and they are the market makers which would indicate a want for lower prices. A 30% drop is common place in a bull market, BTC would therefore go from 49k to 34K which is nearly in line with the 33K FVG which seems the logical target to me. I think if we see that level it would be towards the end of the week/ next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
🔥 Ethereum ETF Hype At The PERFECT Moment: Time To Shine!Now that BTC's spot ETF is officially live, investment banks like Blackrock have already started talking about a potential ETH ETF. Interestingly enough, this happened at the perfect moment, TA-wise. Right as the ETH/BTC valuation has hit a major support, bullish ETH news comes in, which naturally has lead to a big bounce in the ETH/BTC price (ETH is outperforming BTC). What a coincidence... With ETH getting it's time in the sun, we might actually confirm the bullish channel on the ETH/BTC pair and continue the bullish trend all the way towards the top resistance. With ETH's ETF to be announced, this value will likely continue to go up. Do you think ETH will outperform BTC over the next few months/years?
Long
by FieryTrading
7
Time is everythingA lot of people see a Bitcoin pullback, a drop or a red candle as a negative thing. Clearly this is lack of experience, lack of understanding and only ever seeing re-assurance of the one bias they can comprehend. Many people believe my posts to be negative or anti Bitcoin - you could not be more wrong, as a very early holder, I simply don't care - up down or sideways. It's been kind to me and I will say it was more luck than judgement. Right place, right time. But as a professional trader, money manager and tech investor - I have seen my fair share of market trends, hype, realism and shocks in the market to know. Time is all it takes. You can go back over SPX for example and If you buy and hold the trend has only been up. Obvious its one of indices designed to go up. This does not make it a "get rich quick scheme" For me the problem lies in the cult esq mentality and the desire to get rich quick. When you have, or manage a larger fund - time is always less of an issue, when a Limited partner of a fund told me the company hold period was 15-20 years on average, it took a while to let that sink in. 1% of a lot of money is a lot of money, 1% of a $10,000 pushes you to want more - hence jumping on the up only bandwagon. You need to remember; Last year I posted two options for Bitcoin; I said my preferred route put us in early stage accumulation. The second option went back even further than that, it's the Evil move I said I would hope Composite Man would not be as cruel. Unfortunately with the move from 32k to 48k region, it's clear now the second play has in-fact been the one playing out. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- So here's some rational logic - the medicine most DO NOT WANT to swallow. People seem to throw the same argument - ETF & Halving - They have very little else to contribute. So let's look at what an ETF is and does. An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) itself doesn't inherently stabilize an asset. However, the structure and mechanics of an ETF can have certain features that may contribute to perceived stability or liquidity in the underlying assets it represents. Here's how: Diversification: ETFs often hold a diversified portfolio of assets. By pooling together various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities, they spread risk. This diversification can help mitigate the impact of poor performance in a single asset on the overall value of the ETF. Arbitrage Mechanism: ETFs have a unique creation and redemption mechanism. Authorized Participants (usually large financial institutions) can create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, usually known as creation units. This process involves exchanging a basket of assets for ETF shares or vice versa. This helps to keep the market price of the ETF close to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its underlying assets, promoting stability. Liquidity: ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, providing investors with liquidity. The ability to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day at market prices contributes to the perception of stability. The underlying assets might not be as easily tradable, but the ETF itself can be bought or sold like a stock. Market Makers: In the secondary market, market makers play a crucial role in providing liquidity. They continuously quote buy and sell prices for the ETF shares, helping to ensure that there is a smooth and efficient market. This can reduce the impact of large buy or sell orders on the market price. Now for some extra therapy, we also need to look at the realistic timeframes these large players operate at. Blackrock's most popular ETF is their SPX (S&P500) fund. with it's inception around 2001 I believe. $354BN. Now if we look at Bitcoin's market cap - we dropped from $1.3 Trillion at the 69k High down to around 300Billion at the 15k low region. So working out market cap is simple current price of Bitcoin x coins in circulation. (just over 19m). This is just highlighting the obvious; Blackrock is not going to empty the SPX fund and stick $350Billion in a newly established fund. Again time, they have enough money to not need to force or risk anything on a large scale. But what is interesting is the point above about market makers. In Wall Street terms, a market maker is a financial institution or individual that facilitates the buying and selling of financial instruments in a market. Market makers play a crucial role in ensuring liquidity and maintaining orderly trading in financial markets, including stock exchanges. Here are key aspects of what market makers do: Liquidity Providers: Market makers stand ready to buy or sell a financial instrument (such as stocks, bonds, or options) at publicly quoted prices. This activity provides liquidity to the market, allowing investors to execute trades quickly and efficiently. Bid and Ask Prices: Market makers quote bid and ask prices for a security. The bid price is the price at which they are willing to buy, and the ask price is the price at which they are willing to sell. The difference between these prices is known as the bid-ask spread. Order Execution: When an investor places a market order to buy or sell a security, the market maker ensures that the trade is executed promptly by matching it with their own inventory or finding a counterparty in the market. Risk Management: Market makers take on some level of risk by holding an inventory of securities. To manage this risk, they continuously adjust their bid and ask prices based on market conditions and changes in the supply and demand for the securities. Arbitrage Opportunities: Market makers may engage in arbitrage, exploiting price differences between related financial instruments or markets. This helps ensure that the prices of the same or similar securities are consistent across different trading venues. Maintaining Orderly Markets: Market makers contribute to the overall stability and efficiency of financial markets by preventing excessive volatility and ensuring a continuous flow of trading. It's important to note that market makers profit from the bid-ask spread and trading volumes. While they facilitate trading and provide liquidity, they also manage their own risks. Market makers can be institutions like investment banks or specialized firms with expertise in particular markets. They play a crucial role in the smooth functioning of financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities. ============================================= Market makers have been referred to another type of Composite Man. The term "Composite Man" is associated with the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis approach to understanding the stock market. The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, a stock market trader and educator from the early to mid-20th century. According to this method, the Composite Man represents a hypothetical market manipulator or a group of large market participants who have the power to influence the market. In Wyckoff's view, the Composite Man is an entity that accumulates or distributes stocks in a way that leaves footprints on the price and volume charts. The actions of the Composite Man are believed to be observable through the analysis of price and volume patterns, helping traders and investors anticipate potential future price movements. Here are the key ideas associated with the Composite Man in the Wyckoff Method: Accumulation and Distribution: The Composite Man is thought to go through phases of accumulating or distributing a particular stock or market. During accumulation, the Composite Man is buying, and during distribution, they are selling. Wyckoff Price Cycle: The Wyckoff Method outlines a price cycle that includes phases such as Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Traders using this method attempt to identify these phases on price charts to make more informed decisions. Smart Money: The Composite Man is sometimes referred to as the "smart money" because it is assumed to have more information and resources than individual retail traders. Monitoring the actions of the smart money is believed to provide insights into potential market trends. When I posted posts like this from the 65k high, it was due to these footprints being visible from space. As the price moved up from the 28k region to the current ATH. Similar thing. I am not here trying to drag it or you down, I am here trying to help see logic in the charts. As the move moved up, we had a fake ETF release, in essence thus pricing in the actual ETF. This is why for me, this scenario is the most likely in the current environment. Composite Man/Market makers are happy to use the fear and greed index, which is currently tilting heavy towards the greed side. Against retail traders who see ONLY UP as the only scenario available. The space is becoming more like a cult and it's feel more and more like the simple definition of a pyramid scheme. Again, I am not saying that's what it is - I am in at the bottom my cards are on the table. The space has become "if your friends join, they also need to invite more people, and the cycle continues. The person at the top gets money from everyone below, and the people at the bottom hope to make money by bringing in more people." The problem is, there's no real product or service being sold. The only way people make money is by getting others to join. Eventually, it becomes harder for everyone to find new people, and those at the bottom end up losing money because there aren't enough new members to support the structure. This kind of scheme is not fair or sustainable and can cause a lot of people to lose their money. Especially when the big boys get involved with very little regulation covering the people at the bottom. Just remember everyone was saying "anti banks, anti institutional yet celebrating the ETF's like a win" the issue here is it's likely to stabilise the asset, slowing the phases and cycles down to a more mellow growth curve over the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it's great for the industry, but we can expect more manipulation prior to regulation, post regulation the percentage gains will narrow. Keep all of this in mind and remember it's what the majority wanted. Stay safe! have fun and see you on the next post. Hate comments always welcome - just please back them up with some logic and show you have more than 3 brain cells. 😉 Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
5 Investors Betting Big on Pinduoduo (PDD) StockNASDAQ:PDD is soaring higher after a blowout third-quarter earnings report. Let’s take a look at Pinduoduo’s largest shareholders: 1. Sequoia Capital: 48.23 million shares. Sequoia acquired 45.04 million shares during Q3. 2. Baillie Gifford: 35.66 million shares. Baillie acquired 4.5 million shares during Q3. 3. BlackRock: 27.87 million shares. BlackRock acquired 3.73 million shares during Q3. 4. Vanguard: 24.10 million shares. Vanguard acquired 6.63 million shares during Q3. 5. FMR: 17.63 million shares. FMR acquired 4.33 million shares during Q3.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by tradingconmike
Chainlink #LINK Bullback scenario's, mini head & shoulders20-30% pullbacks are normal occurrences and healthy, to allow for profit taking , and also leverage traders to give back money to the market. UP ONLY is a sign that the bullmarket is ending! If everyone is winning and everyone is in profit... who is going to buy your coins? So we can see the mini H&S with log and linear targets giving about a 30% pullback form the recent local high Doesn't have to go all the way there of course and may actually reverse before the full target is met at around the $13 level ...
BINANCE:LINKUSDLong
by BallaJi
1
The Complex RealitiesMany people seem to think this is Bullish. Forgetting the fact (obviously) that it's still 50% from it's $69,000 High. Classic case of retail only seeing what retail want to see and are blinded by every other opinion, including backed by sound logic. When I said all that time ago - let's go long. There was method to the madness, I had already been personally long several years. I explained why as a money manager it was now a thing of interest. Fast foreword a little - the re-accumulation phase. This was the most interesting call of all for me. You see, what I knew would be happening here was the bigger players had been entering and would use techniques to both enter and exit on their own terms. This was simply stunning to watch play out in front of your own eyes. As we rallied away from the re-accumulation zone - retail got greedy and majority of social media was calling for 100k. Instead we had a very distinct pattern start. I tried to warn people, but 100k had their eyes glazed over! All you need to ask yourself, is who's selling. No I don't mean then. I mean now. Here's the hint. As we rallied from that 28k, it was pig ugly, you couldn't mask that move up with digital lipstick. I explained why it would be capped. It needed to go down 3-4 and it would go up 4-5 but it already had it's name marked just above the old All Time High. So we get up to a new high - yet again, calls for 100k came long and loud, 250k, a million dollars. Then it was apparent, people just threw numbers out in the air, rainbow stock to flow models and the reality was, they had less than half a clue! Plan A, B, C and D was all "long only" again not listening to rational or logic. As we dropped down "As I said we would" the next obvious move was the re-distribution. I explained how this would play out. No surprise, it did! We hit $15,000 a long way from the $135,000 worse case your local influencers were shouting for. We now start a long-term accumulation. People with the memory of a fish, think that this move up will clear their red bags. Need I remind you we are still 50% of the ATH. What can we see out on the monthly? Look again Maybe the monthly is too much to wait for? Here's the weekly view. The angle, the volume, the overbought nature... None of these scream - Bullish intent. Retail pumps the price by a couple of thousand dollars and it's again cries for the moon. The Blackrock approval of it's ETF pumped the price artificially and Institutional players are taking advantage. The accumulation phase, is happening, but it is not done - yet. Before you jump into the comments with "Long Only" - back it up with logic, let's create the great debate. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
35
Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) Spurring The ETF AdoptionIt’s been reported that BlackRock has engaged in preliminary discussions with Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading, and Hudson River Trading, with regards to their potential involvement as market makers for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Amid the crypto crackdown, a BTC ETF, if approved, would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the crypto action – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths. Some of the world's largest market-making firms are in the mix to potentially provide liquidity for BlackRock's eagerly awaited bitcoin ETF if regulators approve the product, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Trading giants Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading and Hudson River Trading have held talks with BlackRock about a market-making role, according to a BlackRock slide deck reviewed by the person familiar with the matter. Assuming the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves some or all of the dozen or so applications for bitcoin ETFs (including the one from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager), that would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the action in crypto – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths. Being a market-maker for ETFs, which trade on exchanges just like stocks, requires a level of sophistication and automation that only a relatively few companies can achieve. Market makers are vital to ETFs. They are responsible for creating and redeeming new shares of an ETF, a role designed to keep its price tethered to the price implied by the value of the ETF's holdings. One of the best examples of why such a create-and-redeem structure is important actually comes from crypto. Grayscale Investments offers a product called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) whose price has over the past few years wandered dramatically far away from the billions of dollars worth of bitcoin (BTC) that it owns. Price Momentum BLK is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
Mastering the Bitcoin Boom: Diverse Investment PathsIn this idea, we will explore different ways to amplify gains in a Bitcoin Bul. We will look at potential advanced tactics to capture further returns. My assumption is that Bitcoin is already in a bull market; however, the concepts I will talk about here will be valuable regardless of when the bull market begins. Bitcoin will most likely outperform most crypto assets due to the regulatory uncertainty and the potential upcoming ETF, so we don't think it's worth holding most altcoins out there. Yet there are some exciting ways to bet on Bitcoin indirectly to try to capture further upside, including altcoins. To do that, we will first look at specific key parameters that can serve as clues as to what we should be looking for in the assets we want to bet on: A) The beneficiaries of ordinals and the usage of the Bitcoin BlockChain, B) Coins/Tokens with a lot of BTC on their Balance sheet, C) Companies with BTC on their Balance sheet, D) Platforms that give access to BTC trading, E) Companies waiting for their BTC to be returned. F) Those that will benefit from an ETF. 1) Bitcoin miners. If the Bitcoin blockchain sees high usage, fees will go up, and miners will profit massively. As BTC rallies, more and more people will want to use Ordinals and Inscriptions and look for new ways to use Bitcoin. Miners also have BTC on their balance sheets, so their value will appreciate even further. WGMI is an attractive ETF that someone could buy as a bet on Bitcoin Miners, which looks pretty bullish after a massive collapse in 2022. Most alt-layer 1 protocols are dead and aren't coming back. Currently, there aren't many Bitcoin Layer 2 protocols. The only ones are Stacks and Rootstock (STX and RIF), both looking decent vs BTC. b) Tezos, Lisk, and Eos have a ton of BTC on their balance sheet. Based on my calculations, their market caps are smaller than the value of the BTC they hold. If their teams decide to return some of that BTC to holders, the prices of those projects will skyrocket. All these projects that are in development for 5+ years but haven't gained any reactions. They are looking quite bearish, yet the lower their ratios vs BTC go, the more attractive they are as a speculative buy, as they could easily double or triple in value. c) Microstrategy's Market Cap is worth the same as all the BTC on its balance sheet. It's currently at a 500m loss from the purchases and has a ton of debt; however, if BTC rallies and Microstategy finds ways to build on Bitcoin, its stock price has no ceiling. It's like a leveraged Bitcoin play with no risk of being liquidated. d) Coinbase has seen its competition rekt. Bittrex gone. Binance US is out. Gemini is suffering and can't truly compete with Coinbase. Coinbase plans to expand abroad and even launch its Ethereum Layer 2 protocol. Most FUD around regulations has already been priced in, and any positive news will disproportionately affect the price. As the exchange will be used as the custody solution for Blackrock's ETF, it will directly benefit from the ETF, despite potentially fewer people trading Bitcoin on it. ARKK holds most of the stock's supply and is unlikely to sell soon. e) LEO - This is Bitfinex's exchange token. If and when the US gov will return to Bitfinex the BTC it got from the Bitfinex hack back in 2016, that BTC will be used to buy back LEO tokens. When the FBI caught the hackers in 2022, LEOBTC jumped 85% on the assumption that the coins would be given back. I believe that, eventually, these coins will be returned and that LEOBTC will trade near or even above its ATHs. From here, that means a 100% gain or more. f) GBTC - As mentioned several times in my previous ideas, I believe an ETF will be approved, or something else will occur that will close the current GBTC discount. GBTC is a Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35-40% discount to NAV. That means that if that GBTC starts trading to its actual NAV, it will go up 70-80% from here relative to Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
Solidifying 31.7k as prolonged support could trigger an invh&sWe can see that awhile back we formed a very subtle and tiny left shoulder to this potential pattern that most people may tend to overlook, and the rejection from our most recent high on bitcoin helped solidify a potential neckline for this currently speculative inverse head and shoulder pattern which then gave us the ability to make a measured move guesstimate for its breakout target, and it is quite staggering. From what I’m seeing here, if we were to maintain solidified support above this neckline for a prolonged period of time then it should trigger this pattern and give us the opportunity to reach a breakout target somewhere between 64k and 65k! This of course is the target we are giving when viewing this on the log scale shown here….when you switch it to linear the target you get is around 48k which I think currently is a much more practical target to shoot for than the 65k log chart target,however we may see both come to fruition before Q3 of next year. I anticipate the 48k target before Q2 of next year. I arbitrarily placed the dotted measured move breakout line at November 11th but there’s a chance it could breakup even sooner than that possibly the 29th of October even…also a chance the neckline could maintain resistance all the way well into december or perhaps even as long as ja unwary or February of next year. We must remember that there have been plenty of times in the past, especially during the sideways phase of the market where price can break above the neckline and then ultimately go back under it 2, 3, even 4 times before finally confirming the breakout of the pattern. Must remain patient and vigilant. As Larry Fink stated, many blackrock clients now view crypto as a flight to quality and the way the world is going, we may see people implement those flight plans sooner rather than later. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Black rocks Bitcoin ETF SagaFact: The US Securities and Exchange Commission Will Not Appeal the Grayscale (GBTC) ETF Ruling A Bitcoin Trust is a financial vehicle where investors pool their funds to buy and hold Bitcoin. Bitcoin Trusts operate like a traditional investment and are traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) stock exchange. Bitcoin Trusts indirectly own Bitcoin through the trust’s holdings. Conversely, a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and is traded on stock exchanges, just like a stock. ETF investors buy shares of the fund, which in turn owns Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are more optimal because they directly own Bitcoin, and offer investors more liquidity and flexibility than Bitcoin Trusts. Grayscale runs the world’s largest Bitcoin Trust. However, Grayscale has been working to clear the “red tape” of switching from a Bitcoin Trust to an ETF for the past two years. Because the SEC did not act before the Friday deadline, the SEC will not appeal an August court loss over Grayscale’s ETF conversion application. In a statement to CoinDesk, a Grayscale spokeswoman said: “The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.” Fiction: The SEC Approved Blackrock’s (BLK) Bitcoin ETF Early Monday morning, CoinTelegraph, one of crypto’s most followed news sites, tweeted news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved Blackrock’s Ishares spot Bitcoin ETF. As a result, Bitcoin spiked to two-month highs and neared the psychologically important $30,000 level before reversing. However, there was one major problem – the tweet was a hoax. A few hours after sending Bitcoin soaring, CoinTelegraph retracted its tweet and said it was investigating why false news was spread. Meanwhile, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, confirmed that the headline was false and said the Bitcoin application is still under review by the SEC.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
BLK BlackRock Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BLK here: or ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BLK BlackRock prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 640usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-10-13, for a premium of approximately $10.80. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:BLKShort
by TopgOptions
1
BITCOIN SPOT ETF RUMOURS!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has spiked up by an enormous 2,090 PIPS (7.50%) in the last hourly candle, on the rumour that a Bitcoin Spot ETF application has been approved by the SEC. BlackRock has come out to deny it, calling it 'fake news'. Just like that market crashed back down & wiped out its 7.50% gain. In the process trapping a lot of new buyers, taking out sellers & liquidating them both in the process. Ask yourself, who gains at times like this? The average, everyday person? No. It's the governments & institutions who release these rumours, in order to screw the everyday investor who doesn't know how to professionally operate in the markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BA_Investments
8K BTC MACRO Correction Potential 5050Every day the BTC chart begins to tell a story that only gets clearer by the day. When rich men have goods to sell they advertise and when assets have been distributed into primarily the hands of the public the public runs out of money and begins to sell. Given what I see on these charts I find it no coincidence that the richest institutions are magically bullish on crypto at high time frame resistance looking to load up for ETF’s. They are business men with goods to sell and the best for a reason. Time and price are currently balanced at only the 50% retrace level of our last bull run. If BTC rotates to the down side it will be balanced again at the outside edge of the red circle which also is a perfect correlation with a trend time cycle and typical oscillations of the Fibonacci number ratios people like to trade so frequently. For the first time BTC finds it’s self with monthly divergence on both rsi’s and money flow. Also for the first time has a macro double top followed by its first engulfing candle on a yearly chart. Finally has diminishing returns at exactly 15 degrees of time vs price and on its last one before going flat. Until it's invalidated by braking our current level and holds it what is on this chart will be the main operating principle at which I trade by moving forward from today until we break the high and it is invalidated or we reach out final low. IF we don’t brake above and retest I will be targeting 8k BTC and covering for a massive rally at 50% of the way down. Entry will be brake of trend. Institutions are after your stacks and have more than enough money to short everybody and their brother out of the market and are advertising that you should buy..... THEY HAVE GOODS TO SELL Currently NEUTRAL but heavily favoring this model the more time that passes without braking this level. Trade Well. Invalidation is brake above and retest current level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Degen-Dynasty
11
Bitcoin made complexAs someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
BLACKROCK, Decisive Formation Looking For Further Confirmation!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about BLK ( BLACKROCK ) 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formation building, what we can expect the next times, what can happen after confirmation and how to handle the situation sufficiently. The stock has recovered from the major corona-lows seen this year with some decent but weak up-moves and now trading above the prior established all-time-high-condition where it is building some decisive price-action important for further conclusions, in this case, I detected some important signals which can determine further outcomes of this stock. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the stock is forming a huge rising-wedge-formation with the upper and lower boundary marked in blue which it touched already several times to form a coherent wave count with the final wave E already established and now showing more declines in the short-term firstly which can spring up into the middle and then longer timeframe perspectives. What is also matching here is the declining momentum you can watch marked in red normally indicating a reversal into the other direction, overall the stock is showing up some solid signals to come up with increased bearish selling pressure the next time. When the stock moves on to confirm below the lower boundary which is a likely scenario, there is some local support in this area in which the stock can bounce to confirm the lower boundary rightly as it is seen in my chart marked with the confirmational. When the stock confirms the lower boundary and moves on downward below the 60-EMA in black it will continue till there is support found which can reverse the perspective and stabilize the situation which is the 200-EMA support marked in green where the stock can bounce to form a reversal. The wedge can be traded either aggressively with immediate entry or conservative with entry after confirmation. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, support for more market insight and all the best my friends. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
NYSE:BLK
by VincePrince
1
Correlation in the marketMarket correlation in the financial space that plays a crucial role in investment strategies, risk management, and portfolio diversification. It refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of different financial instruments move in relation to each other. Investors and traders use correlation analysis to make informed decisions about asset allocation and to manage risk effectively. Understanding Correlation Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1 Positive Correlation equals two financial instruments have a positive correlation, it means they tend to move in the same direction. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to increase as well. A positive correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak positive relationship. Negative Correlation Conversely, is when two financial instruments have a negative correlation, it means they move in opposite directions. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to decrease. A negative correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak negative relationship. No Correlation : When the correlation between two financial instruments is zero, there is no discernible relationship between their movements. Changes in one instrument's price or return have no bearing on the other. Importance of Market Correlation Market correlation is essential for several reasons: Diversification: Investors use correlation analysis to build diversified portfolios. By combining assets with low or negative correlations, they can reduce the overall risk of their portfolio. When one asset performs poorly, another may perform well, helping to mitigate losses. Risk Management: Understanding how different instruments correlate can help investors assess the risk associated with their investments. If a portfolio is heavily concentrated in assets with high positive correlations, it may be more vulnerable to market volatility. Trading Strategies: Traders use correlation analysis to develop trading strategies. For example, pairs trading involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets with the expectation that the spread between them will narrow or widen. Asset Allocation: Asset managers consider market correlations when deciding how to allocate resources across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). A well-balanced allocation can enhance long-term returns while managing risk. Correlation Among Different Instruments Market correlation extends to various financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. Here are a few examples: Stocks: Correlation among individual stocks can vary widely. Stocks within the same industry or sector often have a positive correlation due to common market influences. However, stocks from different sectors may have lower correlations or even negative correlations. Bonds: Correlations among bonds depend on factors such as interest rates, credit quality, and maturity. For instance, long-term government bonds tend to have a negative correlation with equities, making them attractive for diversification. Commodities: The correlation among commodities can be influenced by factors like supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. For instance, gold is often negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Currencies: Currency pairs exhibit different correlation patterns. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY often have negative correlations because the U.S. dollar is on the opposite side of these pairs. OK, so what does correlation look like in real terms? Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? This is correlation. I recently wrote an article here on TradingView around the "whole Economy" DXY is a great indicator for many instruments including Gold, SPX and of course Bitcoin. In that article I explained how I rise in DXY would trigger the drop in Gold, we went from 1985 to 1915. Interesting facts. Canadian dollar has the highest correlation with crude oil due to the significant proportion of Canada's GDP reliant on oil. While historically AUD has a strong relationship with gold. So........ Where does market correlation and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF fit in? First, let's use Blackrocks own definition of an ETF. (available directly from their site) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read countless posts on social media recently claiming Blackrock approval would bring $15 Trillion into Bitcoin, read the above note from their own website "Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. So let's assume they own the whole market and all $3 Trillion went directly into the Blackrock ETF. We have to remember the market cap at $69,000 was a little over $3 Trillion. This is far short of $1million a coin price predictions based purely off an ETF approval. Now to my point. ETF market correlation refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of ETFs correspond to the movements of their underlying assets or benchmarks. This correlation can have significant implications for investors. ETFs are often used for portfolio diversification. Understanding the correlation between ETFs and their underlying assets helps investors assess the effectiveness of their diversification strategy. Low-correlation ETFs can provide better risk reduction benefits when added to a portfolio. Hmmmm... Correlation can change based on market conditions. During periods of economic stress or heightened volatility, correlations between assets may increase as investors seek refuge in more defensive assets, potentially leading to correlations converging. The composition of an ETF's underlying assets or securities matters. For instance, a sector-specific ETF may have a high correlation with the performance of stocks within that sector. Bitcoin does not have the "stock" backing, so this will be done via the OTC Bitcoin price. Which then brings us to the ability to use inverse or leveraged ETFs to hedge against market downturns or amplify returns during bullish trends. In Blackrock's case, it is more likely a tactical Allocation aimed to adjust portfolio allocations and enter the crypto space. Remember, this happened. It's not a negative, these guys will accumulate for the long run and not expect things like $250,000 Bitcoin by Christmas. Valkyrie's ETF. Just remember, the professionals make money for a living. It's not as correlated as you might have thought in the sense of "Blackrock in, retail traders get rich". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Bitcoin ETF Launch: New Bull Run? 🚀📈 The Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Launch: A Long-Term Bull Run? 🚀📈 Hello, crypto enthusiasts! Today, let's explore the exciting prospect of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) launch and how it could potentially set the stage for a long-term bull run, drawing parallels with the impact of gold ETFs in 2004. 📊 ETFs: ETFs are investment funds that track the performance of a specific asset or group of assets. A Bitcoin ETF would enable investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements without holding the cryptocurrency directly. 📈 Historical Precedent: To understand the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF, we can look back at the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. They provided an accessible way for investors to buy into gold, significantly boosting gold's price and leading to a prolonged bull market. 🚀 Potential Scenarios: If a Bitcoin ETF were to launch, several scenarios could unfold. It could attract a wave of institutional and retail investors looking to diversify their portfolios, potentially driving up demand and prices. 🌟 Long-Term Bull Run: Similar to gold, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF might pave the way for a long-term bull run. Increased mainstream adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset could be on the horizon. 🔮 The Future Awaits: It's essential to remember that markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and nothing is guaranteed. While a Bitcoin ETF launch could be a catalyst, thorough research and risk management remain crucial. In conclusion, the potential launch of a Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention, and its impact could be akin to the transformative effect of gold ETFs. If history is any indication, we might be on the cusp of an exciting era for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Stay informed, stay prepared, and remember – the crypto landscape is ever-evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities! 🌐🚀
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlexWhale
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus