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Blackswan

US10Y. P-Modeling Pt 1. Yields of Cajun Welcome Hyperspace Travelers. Proposition development is rendered. SPX is going to fresh multigenerational lows. The cybernetic era of advancement is upon us. The 4th industrial revolution is imminent. Things will get better. But first they must get very bad. Massive co-variate weight distribution imminent. Wealth distribution will be forced from top 1% into lower 90%. Technical Complexity is defined by linear and cyclic domains. Each domain combined created this gorgeous technical formation. Complex Technical Formation on 1 Week Macro Analysis of US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield. Harmonic Handle string sequencing. Defined Cajun Cup. Defined C-A harmonic equalization. Defined Linear Root. Defined Cyclic Root. ____________________________ Start: 1980. End: 2025. Tap: Mean Reversion at minimum. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
TVC:US10YLong
by Glitch420
6
The Big Wall Street ShortIs it even possible to predict when a Black Swan event will happen? Is it impossible to time the market in that manner? This is what I will be attempting today , trying to time a stock market crash using fibonacci time dates in Bitcoin and the Dow. I think Bitcoin is a really important tool for world events , it's been running at a constant rate for more than 10 years now ,nothing shows human emotion more than Bitcoin and because of that I have been able to find amazing fibonacci time dates that can predict future marco events in Bitcoin which happen to line up with stock market moves. The Dow Jones fibonacci time dates are much harder to find , there is 100 years of data to go through so over the years I have tried to find the gold fibonacci time sequence but have failed to find a macro sequence with any significance. I do have two Fibonacci sequences that I’m currently following that could show us major macro events in the Dow jones. The first is the one you see on the chart above is the 0.618 happens to be the candle after a weekly all time high candle in the first week of January 2022, which was a major pivot to the downside. The next date in this sequence is 1.618 at the end of February 2023 which as you can see on the chart happens to be the date the Gann Fann and the rising wedge cross. The fact is that the Dow Jones is currently in a massive rising wedge ,it is the largest rising wedge in Dow jones history , I have gone over 100 years of price action and I have yet to find one this big. If this wedge breaks we could be in for the classic 50% historical market crash , on average the Dow Jones dumps about 50% during these events that can last over a year. So far we seem to be setting up for one of those crashes , let's have a look at past crashes. 2008 This market crash was 54% and took 504 days to play out , price declined 17% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1973 This market crash was 46% and took 623 days to play out , price declined 19% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1937 This market crash was 50% and took 392 days to play out , price declines 16% in this case then bounce and we get a perfect rejection at 8/1 Gann Fann. 1929 (Great Depression ) This market crash was the largest in history and was much more volatile but the pattern was still the same. We first get the drop then the bounce and a rejection of the 8/1 Gann Fann. So as you can see when we set up for these crashes we get a drop somewhere from 16-20% before a bounce and that is exactly what is happening right now , we dropped 20% and bounced , the stage is being set for a massive crash once this rising wedge breaks. The question is now when? Well for now have the 1.618 Fib date end of February 2023 that could be the date we would start to see a pivot down for the Dow Jones and start its crash down to 18000 area, this zone is exactly 50% from all time high which lines up with every other crash it also happens to be the bottom of the covid crash. I go over the idea of a big crash coming in this TA below , where I go over a very similar fractal pattern playing out around the time of the great depression. There is no denying that this fractal pattern is eerily similar to the great depression and the Dow Jones currently hit the 3.618 Fib level so pulling back to 18-19k will also line up with 1.618. If you zoom out you could see that the Dow is currently in a massive ascending channel. Whenever we get close to the top of the channel we find a lot of resistance or decade long consolidation . So using Bitcoin Fibonacci dates and two different Dow Jone dates I have narrowed down the possible potential window of when this crash will start. Late February to Late July 2023 this move could start happening ,it could look something like this : If this did unfold, where would Bitcoin be? Bitcoin has never been through a stock market crash of 50% and we already hit capitulation right? Well yes and no ,Bitcoin has two capitulation events before going back to all time high as you can see below. Now what happens is these two capitulation events is that we create a double bottom ,so it basically retests the first capitulation lows but after discovering what could happen in the Dow jones I believe that Bitcoin could put in its first ever lower low in the second capitulation phase which would look something like this sometime end of july 2023. So come late February 2023 we get a rejection off the 8/1 Gann Fann and we break the rising wedge , prepare for the worst and also the biggest short position of your life.
TVC:DJIShort
by Sporia
14
Trading The Great Reset: Two Strategies“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain I've been noticing similarities between the Great Depression and the current market. Both were proceeded by parabolic ascents, and both had steep tops. The descent from 1929 to 1932 is shown in gray. Key support levels are marked in green. Two laddering strategies are shown with suggested percentages of investment based on initial cash available. Do I think this will play out? No. The Fed will cut rates and start a new round of QE long before the price ever gets to 800. If, however, there is a Black Swan event, the impossible could become possible. I do see 1600 as possible and 2200 as probable, given the current fundamentals. My target for the end of the year is 3000. Best of luck traders. Tips: ETH: 0x13cd45d7d282ee0ee4635645cce2e2a566d9bed8
SP:SPXShort
by Cryptogold14
2
GBPUSD. P-Modeling Pt B. Decade O' Cajun Cups of Wonder Welcome Hyperspace Travelers, This is a time-series analysis of GBP.USD on the 1 Week Timeframe. Is GBP.USD about to experience hyper-deflation? Is structure all inclusive? Is structure worthy of scrutiny? I think so.. And so should you. Proposition Development will commence when we exit the harmonic. I am pretty damn sure GBP is about to be taken out to the woodshed.. Of course as always, this is of my opinion. What do I know? Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
Short
by Glitch420
3
📌BLACK SWAN IN Financial Markets ❗❗🆘The last time that the DXY index crossed the 104 ,was after the stock market bubble burst in 2000! Usually when the dollar goes up, equity and crypto and other assets decline in value - there is an inverse relationship...realizing that the stock or crypto market is currently at levels where some are calling for a bear market must always consider unexpected scenarios (Black Swan)! Black Swan Events : The concept of black swan events was popularized by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable (Penguin, 2008). The essence of his work is the world is severely affected by events that are rare and difficult to predict. The implications for markets and investments are compelling and need to be taken seriously. Some Example for black swan that turned the financial markets upside down! -The Great Depression of 1929 A prime example of the Black Swan and one of the most devastating events in history was the Great Depression of 1929-1933. This event was so intense that most economists use it to describe the impact of financial crises on the global economy. The Great Depression in the United States began with the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, also known as Black Tuesday. This sudden collapse devalued the global stock market and severely slowed the growth of the global economy. -The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 One recent example of a black force in financial markets was the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Formerly known as the "Asian Tigers" and the "Asian Economic Miracle," the countries saw their currency and stock markets depreciate by 70 percent. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand suffered the most from the crisis, followed by Hong Kong, Laos, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Singapore, Taiwan and Japan were also relatively less affected by the crisis than other countries. -The Dot-Com crisis of 2000 One of the strongest black events that most stock traders remember happened on April 14, 2000. When the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 9 percent, ending the weekend with a 25 percent decline. The .com bubble, also known as the Internet bubble, emerged in the stock market in the late 1990s, largely due to excessive speculation in Internet-related companies. The advent of the Internet and the widespread adoption of computer technology have led to the emergence of new Internet-focused companies such as Pets.com, Webvan and Boo.com. By 1997, approximately 35 percent of all American households owned a personal computer, reflecting the popularity of the information age. -The Great Depression of 2008 One of the recent events of the Black Swan was the Great Depression of 2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis. This severe financial crisis began with the housing market bubble in the United States and quickly spread to other parts of the world. Commercial banks took out huge risks with mortgage-backed securities that plummeted in value after the US housing bubble burst. Many economists consider the 2008 financial crisis to be the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression of 1929. The Financial Services Renovation Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, allowed banks to use customer deposits to invest in financial derivatives. Mortgage-backed securities were one of those derivatives in which banks took a lot of risks by lending to owners (even unreliable owners). The TED spread (in red), an indicator of perceived risk in the general economy, increased significantly during the financial crisis, reflecting an increase in perceived credit risk. The TED spread spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year, then spiked even higher in September 2008, reaching a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008. - Flash Crash 2010 The image below is from the fall of the S&P index, which occurred in 2010 and became known as Flash Crash 2010. In this rare event, the value of the US stock market suddenly fell by $ 1,000 billion. Shares of some companies, such as P&G, fell as much as 1 cent ($ 0.01) and shares of some companies, such as Apple, rose to $ 100,000. Some organizations point the finger at supercomputers operating high-frequency (HFT) transactions and blame them. Of course, this problem took about 15 minutes, and quickly everything returned to normal. -Elimination of the Swiss franc fixed rate in 2015 Another example was the black force that hit the forex markets and affected Forex traders. This very simple example shows how sudden and unexpected events can take markets by surprise. On January 15, 2015, the Swiss central bank shocked the markets by lowering the rate of 1.20 Swiss francs against the euro. The news shook the foreign exchange markets and the Swiss franc strengthened sharply. At the same time, the Swiss national currency immediately rose 30 percent to 0.90 against the euro. -Global quarantine 2020 Unlike other examples of the Black Swan, the Corona virus epidemic, which began in China in late 2019 and spread rapidly to other parts of the world in 2020, claimed many lives. In addition to the human aspect, the disease also caused the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929, as countries entered quarantine, the global flow of goods and services declined dramatically, and in one month, 20 million people lost their jobs in The United States lost. >>Consequences for traders You might say that events like Black Strong are very rare. But you only have to catch them once to destroy all the profits you have made in the last year or even a decade. Therefore, it is important to take all precautions. But what are these measures? For example, take your profits consistently and do not put all your life capital into one trading account. - Sometimes the loss limit does not work so should hedge your positions Have you ever read the risk acknowledgment statement given to you by an exchange or broker? Most likely you will say no and just sign it. The statement said that loss orders do not protect you in all cases and do not end your trading risk.
TVC:DXYEducation
by PRO_SMART_Trader
2
Is a Black Swan going to destroy crypto?!I've been bullish on individual tokens, but after taking a step back I think I'm going very defensive on crypto and stocks. With the precarious nature of markets right now (war in Europe, decade high inflation, recovering from a once in a century pandemic), it's not going to take much to torpedo stocks and crypto. The chart lists some bearish traits, on the weekly, maybe we get a week or two of good action but there is cause for concern. Any major geo-political shock to the system (major cyber-attack, nuclear war) will crater crypto fast as lightning. Trade safe....
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by GunMoney
5
BTC NEXT MOVEI think we will see where BTC is going within the next 20 hours (my guess is in the next 8hours but who knows...). I have my technical targets shown on this chart. I'm currently sidelined looking to get a decent short entry. Volume on HTF doesn't justify this breakout to be sustainable (imo). Lot's of bearish divergences on RSI even on the daily. Break my violet line (45704.22$) and close above and I'll be sidelined + not looking to short. However, with all these potential black swans I won't long at the moment. If this happens to be a so called bull flag, which I heavily doubt, I could see us touching the upper zone of my resistance box which would mean (51579.45$), a very long way to go, but you never know with BTC. Note that there is a CME gap in the 42k area as well. My system tells me 42.5k area before another bigger move (this would also line up with the EMA50 on the 4H which could act as support). I have much more to say, but let's keep it "short"! Note that this is NOT Financial Advice, I'm just sharing my view and looking to have discussions in the comments! Still learning everyday!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by One4One
Bitcoin's Black Swan event brewing?Hello traders, I have recently been pretty busy with my private group and moving to a new home so I wanted to put an idea that I'd been eying for a few months now. As you can see in the chart here there has been a multi year trend line starting back in 2013 which has acted as support for 9 whole years with multiple touch points highlighted in green along this trend. The Few times that we have broken down from that support has only been due to Black Swan events (A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.). These Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight like ones listed on the chart. The first notable of these events is the Bitfinex Flash Crash that happened in August of 2015, followed quickly after by another Bitfinex debauchery in which was just summed up recently due to the arrest of the notorious couple who hacked the exchange for 3.6 billion dollars of Bitcoin at todays prices. The next time this support trend was broken was during the Covid 19 drop and market scare in March of 2020 which unless, you were living under a rock for the past few years, I'm sure this one had some effect in your life in other ways than giving you a fire sale or melting your heart looking at your crypto investment bag during the drop. Now at current date I have been anticipating another Black Swan event, with all of the Geopolitical turmoil we are all watching unfold everyday that passes it seems almost evident. I wont bore you with my opinions or set out that I am keen to what is going to happen as I am not a political consult of any kind and simply just letting you know my opinion that before we continue the massive rush up that I am also anticipating, I believe we may very well likely see another one of these events. It is very important as a trader to have a solid plan for both bearish and bullish price action. If you treat trading as a business you will grow as a trader and your results will most likely follow. My Plan for this event if this does in fact play. First, I have been eyeing area's in which bitcoin may fall to. Here are a few Key area's to watch for, the first one is $29k to$30k as this is the next major area of support that bitcoin has below $35k.The second area is between $24k and $25k as in this area on CME:BTC1! is a Gap which do not have to be filled but, most likely do end up getting filled eventually (The gap is the difference between the trading price of a CME bitcoin futures contract when the market closes on Friday and opens on Sunday. The gap occurs because there are no trades between the closing period on Friday and the opening on Sunday. The gap can also occur during holidays when the CME is closed.) The last area I am eying is between $19k and $20k as this is a major support area for Bitcoin ranging all the way back to 2017 in the previous run. I currently have limit buy orders in these areas and on a few lower supports on some alt coins that I think will do well the rest of the year. So basically averaging in on the way down if we do in fact have another event like this. On the flip side, it is quite possible that no such event occurs and we continue on with this run shooting up through the shorts that have been stacking up above current price action at $40k. With the probability of Russia being removed from the global Swift Payment system and most likely turning to cryptocurrencies to do commerce moving forward we could see a large influx of crypto users from both Ukraine and Russia over this conflict that has been unfolding. Not to detour too fat from BTC but, this is one of the predominant reasons that I am so bullish on XRP and other such coins that could take the place of the current medium of trade used within these regions. Regardless, I am very interested in hearing your opinions in the comments below. I am from Michigan in the United States, near Detroit Motor City, In a world full of conflict between others, lets share something positive amongst each other and connect as likeminded individuals which this platform allows us to do. Until next time, Have a GREEN week! Savvy
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Savvythe1
8
Black Swan Event? Weekly Pattern Is Still Bearish.Even with the melt your face off rally from the last two days, the weekly pattern on the S&P is still bearish. The current price is below both the 100 and 200 DMAs. Until the market forms a higher low and higher high, I have to consider that the last two days are just noise caused by changes to the rate hike forecast and high negative gamma. The candlestick pattern eerily looks like it's setting up for a plunge with short bodies and long wicks in a descending pattern. IMO, there hasn't been a higher probability of a Black Swan event in recent memory. Possible Black Swan Events 1. The Fed pulls a “Volcker Moment” and hikes rates earlier and more than expected. 2. China invades Taiwan. 3. NATO becomes directly involved in military conflict with Russia. 4. A new COVID strain emerges that is as transmissible as Omicron and as deadly as Delta. Existing immunity doesn't provide protection. On the chart, wave 3 represents an extended wave at 2.618 x the length of wave 1. If wave 3 is extended, wave 5 should be the same length as wave 1. What do you all think is going to happen next week? Let me know in the comments.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Cryptogold14
10