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Blackswan

BTC LIGHTS OUT, SUB 30KThis idea leans a bit more on speculation, but it is something that's crossed my mind recently. Given the IMF practicing for cyber-attacks specifically aimed at the global financial system, it gives worry of a covid like crash that'll break support at 30k. Not to mention how close the current price action is now resembling the price action of back in March 2020. Take a look at the trend line on the chart image below: It is the single most important trend line to hold in order to ensure that the bull run continues . The same goes for the PoC, sitting around 46k. If we break it along w/ the white trendline, it's a wrap. BBWP indicator has confirmed the end of consolidation moving into volatility... that I believe will head to sub 30k levels. Key lines of support and resistance are identical to the previous idea linked below. The likelihood of this entire idea playing out to be invalidated would be if we break above the prev high near 52K. Rip Grichka Bogdanoff, may your phone calls ring beyond the grave .
Short
by linebands
Another monumental momentNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock downs. With that out of the way, lets get into the FEEVR Analysis! As mentioned above you should look at the historical data provided on this bonds chart. Today and over the weekend we saw the 30yr-20yr invert. This is bad for a number of reasons but mostly having to do with debt and inflation. as stated previously, the inversion marks the start of what can only be assumed as a flee from 'safe haven assets'. This is bad because bonds as a percent, tightening, has historically preluded some of the biggest economic and market wide black swans. Looking at the bond market it is repeating this trend and only seems to be starting which would make me assume through an educated guess that we are about 1 1/2 to 2yrs out from another major black swan, market altering event. Please, please, please be careful. We can time this and there is sure to be lots of money made during this time, just DONT be the last one to the exit. I am currently working on a analysis on the Comms sector of the S&P. That will be out tomorrow. Ic alle dit, telecommunications is rocking and internet is failing. I have identified manipulation in this sector on RRG and now I am just trying to nail it down on the charts here for you all to see. Happy monday everyone!
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
BTCUSDT CHART IDEA 1BTC is going through the ABC corrective phase and I think we have almost completed the C Wave. This will be invalidated if it breaks the previous swing and makes a LL on the Daily TF. It broke out of the BULL PENANNT, long term target is $88,000. Currently holding the 55 EMA on the daily which is strong support and normally bullish for continuation. Black Swan event like the Poland border crossing is a warning to crypto and the stock market. Money is flowing back into the dollar and the interest rates are starting to rise. The charts have just reversed a huge bearish trend which means everyone will get REKT, be cautious. Buy Zones are set. Targets are to be met. Stop loss 1%. Not Financial Advice.
Long
by Fakeoutking82
What If? There Is A Possibility We are set up almost exactly like the flash crash we had in March of 2020. If we retested the previous cycles all time high of 20k we could still still consider the move the C wave of wave 4. It kind of would make sense for the big players. There isnt enough volume or confidence in the overall market, and we wont continue this sideways chop forever. We need a deep correction to end the 4th wave. Buying demand would also be huge at the 20k level and we would likely bounce hard from there. Even though this may be far fetched, I think it has a real chance of playing out. Let me know what you guys think. Thank you for viewing my post. If you like ideas like this then please follow me for more!
by Nutty_Trader
8
Evergrande to cause black swan event? Eerily Similar ChartEvergrande is a major Chinese real estate developer, who through leveraged properties and issuing US denominated junk bonds, built up a real estate empire making it the second biggest in the country. Due to the pandemic many of their tourist properties suffered a hit. They've now managed to rack up $300 billion in debt. They've just announced that they wont be able to make their interest payment by September 20th. Their debt is very simlar to that of Lehman Brothers which was the largest case of bankruptcy in history. Their bond trading was suspended today due to a the second downgrade in many days. If Evergrande isn't bailed out by the chinese gov't then this could get messy. It is estimated that Evergrande owns 2% of all property in China. They will be forced to liquidate their properties and thus will drive the price of homes down quickly in china. There most definitely would be a ripple effect that would impact the global market, especially since 15% of all global debt is owed to china. As far as bitcoin the cirumstances are eerily similar. 50% drop from high - rebound of 60-70% - golden cross - Not saying this will happen but I certainly wouldn't rule it out of play. Let me know what you guys think. Thank you for viewing my post!
by Nutty_Trader
5
🔍🔍1929-2029: Fibonacci, Macro Economic Cycles & Black Swans🔍100 Years of near Perfect Fibonacci Alignments!! In this analysis, I looked at 2 Trend Based Fibonacci Time Extensions Layered over an Inverse Fibonacci Retracement starting in 1929 and ending in 2027 Observations: 1. There is a 100% chance a break of a Time FIB & Inverse Retracement FIB together result in a recession, and that the Inverse Retracement FIB acts as a resistance flipped support for the next period of growth - See (Fig 1.1 Recession) & (Fig 1.2 Recession) 2. There is a 82% chance that a Time FIB will precisely match a market correction - See 14/17 Time FIBs 3. This raises to 94% chance if you include the 2 delayed ones - See (Fig 3.1 Time FIB A: 1.0) & (Fig 3.2 Time FIB B: 1.0) 3. At a minimum, there is a 76% chance any correction will align to a Time FIB - See 16/21 corrections 4. September 2027 is a key alignment of; a. Time FIB B: 3.0 b. Inverse Retracement FIB 4.236 - See (Fig 4.1) Conclusion: Significant chance 2027 will see a major correction, followed by recession through 2029 into 2030s Note : the Trend-based Time FIB Extensions are based off the following points; Point 1: Last ATH succeeded by significant Lower Low - Time FIB A: 1880 / Time FIB B: 1929 Point 2: Breakout point of Last ATH to next ATH - Time FIB A: 1899 / Time FIB B: 1954 Point 3: Next ATH succeeded by significant Lower Low - Time FIB A: 1929 / Time FIB B: 1969 What are your thoughts? yemala
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
5
🚨🚨🚨 SPX Black Swan Event 2022: Hidden MACD Indicator 🚨🚨🚨Technical Analysis comparing MACD histogram and structure of historical black swan events with today: 2018 - 2022. Each historical Black Swan Event share 3 simple indicators, that are in play today; 1. Incremental pullbacks of increasing % that ultimately lead to the crash 2. MACD histogram micro contractions and macro expansion that ultimately lead to the crash 3. A Trend Line of Lower Lowers followed by Higher Highs on Recovery that ultimately lead to the crash Historical Black Swan Events; 1965 - 1975: Build Up to 73/74 Crash 1986 - 1988: Black Monday Crash 1998 - 2009: Dotcom Bubble/Subprime Crash Today; 2018 - 2022: Black Swan Event / Crash? Hidden MACD Indicator & Analysis As you will observe, in each of the major black swan events / crashes since the Great Depression, all three of the indicators play out. Most significantly is the clear contraction and expansion of the MACD that is only visible on daily or weekly timeframes depending on the crash and how it played out: 1965 to 1975 saw the build up to the 1973 Crash and thus the MACD on a weekly timeframe over 10 years expresses the contractions and expansion. Likewise, the Dotcom bubble to subprime crashes also last around 10 years and can be observed only on the weekly timeframe. Comparatively on a daily timeframe over the course of 2 years, Black Monday crash displays the MACD contractions and expansion Meanwhile today in 2021 we can observe over the last 3/4 years a similar expression of the contractions and expansion. Conclusion: History tends to repeat itself and three major historical indicators of crashes are playing out today. We know the FED can just keep printing $$$, but regardless, the house of cards will collapse again, as it has done time and time again. Will 2022 be the next black swan event? Share your thoughts and interpretations!!
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
14
Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 DealSpeculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to come. That deal is to expire 2022, and will likely be assessed soon. Check out the behavior of SKEW/VVIX/PCR right before the Trade Deal... Does somebody know something? Even if it is renewed, it is bullish long term but very likely a big flush for insiders to BTD. If China withdraws, it's recession - returning to a situation similar to 2018 with a tariff tit-for-tat except with current supply chain issues, pandemic, massive debt levels, and slowing global economy. One part of the deal entails China refraining from competitive devaluation of their currency. However, US is devaluing their currency through inflation (speculated). That is bullish for US equities, but CNYUSD is now at the top of a range: Should the deal expire, and China devalues their currency, the US will need to respond with more debt. Can the world handle more debt? Phase 1 Deal: www.reuters.com Full text found here: web.archive.org GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
Macro - Global Inflation Expectations Rolling OverSpeculation for Macro: These are the underlying conditions: - Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value? - Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over results) misses expectations vs. the underlying conditions, what can you really do? - AMZN missing expectations is a hint. Bonds and currencies lie less than stocks. Stocks are the last to get the message. AMZN - This is a pattern prevalent globally right now. Look how it resolved in HSI, and now AMZN: - Druckenmiller says that funds position for 18 months in advance. The sell-off in tech and lack of interest is a huge tell. In decelerating markets, sector losers will be sold off heavily. - If you cant stimulate earnings & job growth by dumping money into stock buybacks, then you have failed. You will have price inflation ONLY, but it is not creating GDP growth nor lasting means to do so. Only raising DEBT, and then when you take away QE/negative rates you are left with nothing but high prices, and a big asset bubble. Now, we are to assume that investors will keep bidding up assets that are expected to depreciate in value? No they will just sell, and money managers see what is coming just from AMZN + GDP missing expectations. - When you only have price inflation, but the population not accumulating capital, it will lead to consumers being priced out of discretionaries and demand will decrease. You will revert society back to demanding bare necessities, rather than creating innovation. - You can keep pouring in money through QE, but rates cant go more negative... CBs will just eventually hold all of their own negative yielding debt and keep printing money when nobody is actually giving you money for the debt? How does it create GDP growth when the money they print is depreciating in value vs. existing debt which needs to eventually be financed? - Debt is the deflationary force that money printing is fighting against. They need the economy such that it can eat away the debt without them pouring money into it, but if companies fail to produce increasing revenue while debt is increasing, they have failed. - Then for the next crisis, your are left with no options except to lie down and take it. - Institutional money will begin to sell off as they realize what is happening and data factors begin to confirm this trend. Global Liquidity Providers with a red flag: Softbank: Evergrande: Bitcoin/Blackrock - US equities have yet to factor in the selloff in Bitcoin (Bitcoin is the US liquidity provider/Shadow Bank IMO): - What is the Trigger to actually sell the US equities though? How to action this global shift? Its very tricky obviously, but I am looking at the leaders (FAANG) which have upheld the bull run up till now as hard supports vs. the weakening market breadth. That's why AMZN is an important cue for me. - Asia is the key. As we know, China is attempting to pop their asset bubble, and it is creating a deflationary wave which has reached HK and now Japan. It will spillover to EU and US without question. - You can see the COVID and other fears being set up to be blamed as a 'catalyst' to blame, rather than CB's blatant failure to navigate the crisis. - Of course, stocks aren't the economy... but when smart money realizes that revenue will decline, and no value will be created for them, of course they will sell. i.e. Its going to translate to revenue, innovation, dividends and stock buybacks. I expect a correction at the very least in the near future in US equities, and a big one in the mid-long term. All I can do is short the setups and prepare for the big one. But where will investors put their money then? - Dollars, housing and bonds from the looks of it. Anything to escape the tail risk in equities. Even the junkiest of yields are below inflation as investors seek yield. - It is a bit sinister, because the Fed is buying bonds and MBS's, and eventually it will be returned in theory. So they retain the ability to strike down the havens. When new instruments which are riskier and riskier are created so that investors can obtain yield and institutions can sell their risk to them, it piles on more risk into the system, such that the threshold for a tail event is lowered. That is probably where the liquidity eventually flows to. Just because there is an immense amount of money in the system doesn't mean investors won't sell that risk. When everyone is risk-on, wouldn't it create more yield to just flush risk assets first and then buy the dip? The great Black Swan here is that inflation is indeed transitory. It would mean that even QE Infinity and negative rates cannot stimulate the economy. How it Unfolds: - While M Money Stock has increased, it has done little to reduce debt vs. money, nor increased GDP (growth YoY). - The Credit Cycle is the beginning of liquidity flows. The global credit impulse is negative, meaning new inflationary credit is not created, and eventually, debt will be called instead. Inflation will be destroyed. Debt is at an all time high. - For debt to be serviced, those institutions which have sold debt must now pull liquidity from assets in order to service the debt. While the assets have appreciated in monetary value, they have depreciated vs. debt, meaning that they will need to return more M Money than they borrowed. This means that at the end of it, there will be a money SHORTAGE! GLHF - DPT
Editors' picks
TVC:US30YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
35
SPX - Doom & GloomThis is what the chart is presently showing for an End Of Year collapse in the stock market. Down 20.8%. This may or may not happen depending on many variables, but it cannot be ignored as this is what's currently being planned in the event of a major Black Swan Event. EOY price is ~3480. Foreknowledge of events is important to keep track of. Who's buying theses EOY contract expiration's at this price? Who's forcing the Lockdown's and the vaccine mandates? I'll let you take it from here. Connect the dots. Whatever happens, it won't be organic.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by cldx
2
Nasdaq and Nasdaq Transportation Diverging - is this it? I have been watching and reading a bit recently around how the transport sector leads the markets and can see a few reasons why. In the top chart you can see divergence just before the Covid-19 black swan and now we have a very heavy divergence in play similar to what led the market before the 2007 crash, it could be seen as the start perhaps. Theres a lot of dumb money around thats pumped us this far and I don't know how it will stop but things have seemed toppy, I will remain neutral and in cash while this plays out a bit more as DXY looks to be strengthening which is also a signal that the market may correct.
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by smiley1910