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ZERO HOUR - Decision Time For the Whole MonthTaking a Look at the overall market capitalization for crypto - It looks like there's a couple of interesting things happening. First a Bullish ABCD , this is good. Second is an upward wedge which we are currently retesting the bottom of - also good though our overall position in the wedge could be more ideal. The wedge we're in ends in the next 2 days - meaning we're likely to see a big move from the market one way or the other soon. There are two potential scenarios the way I see it - Either breakout now or break down to give us further capitulation, a third bear trap, and then more upside coming into August. I know... it'll go up or it'll go down seems like a cop out don't it? But let's be real everything is pretty knifes edge right now. Despite BTC becoming accepted as currency official in a fairly obscure country in the grand scheme on things - we've yet to see any bullish buying return. On chain metrics are showing a lot of accumulation at this level so I believe that even if we do see a break down we will not break this range overall - but it will be a frustrating month for most to be sure. BEST COURSE OF ACTION? Take what you can get right now but don't get too stuck in until we get a confirmed direction. Alts haven't been showing as much capitulation as BTC over the past few days with DEFI and NFT sectors largely blowing up - pointing to a shifting in the overall intelligence of the market into stuff that they can actually use for stuff versus stuff that they just saw on the news.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by cryptosince1963
4
BTC:Those Who Do Not Learn From History Are Doomed To Repeat It.Let's take a proverbial breathe for a second and look at the big picture in this time of turmoil. proportional to the 2017 bullrun, we're sitting in the same growth and retracement areas representative of the first wave of the bullrun. in 2017 we saw 1k% gains after this point over the course of 154 days, followed by further alt growth in the weeks following BTC topping out before the market corrected back down massively. Do you think history will repeat itself? Remember: there are few constants in the world of finance - the limited number of BTC possible is one of them. Is Plan B correct? I must admit, the similarities in the charts are peculiar.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptosince1963
2
Monday Market Update - Back Up From Here? Well Maybe After...Crypto is on the rebound! And the sun is shining through the clouds. But lets take a look and just see what we're looking at before we get too excited. Historically, May and June are pretty poor months for BTC - keep that in mind for this analysis. First off looks like our bullish bat on BTC seems to be holding solid, this would imply some upside is in the cards short term from here. Supported by RSI and TD9 both in reversal areas. we see BTC.D had a nice breakout as the market collapsed and people rushed out of alts but not as bad as would be expected on a real end of the world crash. Looks more like a very sudden, intense correction - "just a correction" - right guys?!?! Market caps both total and total2 are looking in good position. Total stopped where it should for us to get more growth from the market, and total 2 is shaping up into a nice inverse A/E implying an increasing buy pressure on alts through the consolidation of BTC after the dump. Overall it's looking like short term up is definitely in the cards, obviously, but I would look to the 45k to 50k area to see where we're really going. If we get a big re-short on BTC here then expect a push below 30k quicker than you probably think it will right when people get comfortable with the bull-run being back on. What does this mean for alts? Well recovery across the board short term and more charts that want to break out starting their new price discovery on their way to the moon. If we get a re-short on BTC I anticipate the alts will get hit hard, but I'm expecting a lot of them to hold their bottom support of their retracement levels if they have started their breakout. It's very important in these markets to wait for confirmed movement to avoid dead cat bounces - If something breaks out wait for the retracement and buy in then for maximum safety. Take care and be safe!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by cryptosince1963
4
Where is Crypto Going❓ Let's Take a Look👀After a weekend typified by extreme amounts of FUD, looks like the lights have started to shine through the clouds and have illuminated that crypto does indeed still exist. But for how long? Are we going back to 10k? Will everyone lose their life savings - AGAIN. Let's look. But first, let's discuss the whole dump thing to get some context. It seems at this point it was at least somewhat a market manipulation event, with a lot of the initial cascade of BTC sold all at once to start it being collected over the weeks prior in small amounts. Would not surprise me if this was meant to coincide with the china ban (yeah again, and it still works! crazy!) in order to really get the gears going. Anyway a bunch of retailers panicked, not helped by the lot of folks online shouting it's the start of the bear season we're all gonna be poor from every mountain top. Honestly - if you were one of these people going around to your chat rooms spreading FUD you have nobody to blame for the market crash but yourself as you were a part of the problem. Now, surprise, everyone is pro crypto and FOMO'ing back into the market. Really can't make this shit up. Enough about this madness let's look at some weekly candles to ease our mind. BITCOIN BTC is holding on to a fairly firm EMA 50 weekly support, but of course we want to be above our 21 so if we can't rectify that situation ASAP we're looking at a short term bull trap or accumulation for quite a bit. I believe my earlier prediction on this ultimately being quite bullish for alts still stands despite the retrace being sharper than expected - still within the boundaries. find that below: RSI is in a great place for more growth, though TD9 is showing we could see more consolidation at this level or downside before the big reversal. BITCOIN DOMINANCE I use this chart as my road map for bullruns, as it works really really well. I suspect we're not done the bullrun as BTC.D still has a lot of cycle left to complete it seems. We saw a Dead Cat Bounce I suspect back up to the channel we previously broke down out of, retracements are expected ultimately and the stopping point is crucial - here we can see that the retracement stopped right where we should see it stop for continued movement down. Remember, BTC.D dropping gives us alt season, we want this bastard to drop. I suspect the floor around the 30-40% range, which gives us a good amount of market cap still to flood into the alts especially if money comes back into the market en masse. When this completes it's movement downward I suspect we will be done with the bullrun for real. TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION We stopped in our liquidity area from January, which is quite interesting from a technical perspective. Retracements are expected to stop in the liquidity area if you're expecting it to continue the movement afterwards, it seems that because the climb was so big, the retracement was likewise quite dramatic, but given the current stopping level I believe there's a good chance of continued a big bounce up from here. TOTAL 2 - MARKET CAP EXCL. BTC (ALT CAP) This is where things get interesting to me. While the market capitalization itself retrace to january levels, we see clearly by this and BTC.D that the alts has the same general movement of retracement, but to a much higher level than we saw in January. This further adds to my speculation that the bull run is not over, especially for the alt coins. OVERALL THOUGHTS If you bought this dip I think you're probably going to make a killing, at least in the short to mid term. If stock to flow is to be believe we could see BTC hit 100k or 200k+ if you're using STFX. After this point we could see up to an 80% retracement in the overall market, bringing us back down to the 20k level for a brief spell before normalizing. The takeaway if we have more money to make here before we have to really worry, and those who hodl'd through the blood and bought the dip should see their testicular fortitude payoff soon. That said, make sure we're taking profit on this wave - Once we're done this leg it could be a while before we get another chance, though this leg could conceivably last in to early next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by cryptosince1963
4
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades. In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap. When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue. We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know. We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader. When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term. In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting. The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic. OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety. So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$
Education
by cryptosince1963
1
ETC 🎯 Don't Spend It All At Once Now! 🚀As anticipated, ETC is going absolutely supernova. I expect this same movement to be completely by much of the market in the coming weeks. Assuming crypto doesn't blip out of existence or something. Anticipating a retrace at this point around fib 2.72 though there's clearly some serious buy pressure. If we do get a retrace at 2.72 I would try to pick some up on the dip if you don't have a bag already as it seems we've only got more gas in the tank from here.
Long
by cryptosince1963
BTC 💎 A Bullish Argument For a 40k Retracement. ALTS GO 🚀🚀?!Looking at the current daily chart it looks like we could conceivably overwrite the previous bullish butterfly and get out a lovely bullish shark instead. This would need us to retrace to 40k, but the good news is if we retrace to 40k, our next likely stop is 72k. What does this mean for Alt Coins? Well we're in an interesting spot. If we check out BTC Dominance below we can see that it appears to be in a complete and utter free fall. The next "support" (take this term with a grain of salt as it's essentially an index chart) is 20% lower from the current dominance level. This is an insane amount of money considering the current market caps of most alt coins. And most interesting, if we go back to our total 2 chart, which is market cap minus BTC... Well it looks like we've already broken out of the downtrend: The last time this happened the market cap increase by 91% from the bottom point. Again an insane amount of money for alts. Combine these factors with the amounts of breakouts currently happening on alt charts and we have all the potential for a BTC rejection propelling alts into the stratosphere. If so, I'll meet you on the moon 🤘
Long
by cryptosince1963
5
BTC💎 Looking Like some More upside in the cards, After this...Looking at the BTC 2H chart, getting a pretty good sense that we're looking at a bullish setup here. If we stop here we have a bullish Cypher ready to go, but I doubt we stop here for I have a feeling we're gonna see a bit more down first. Increase H/S is about ready to give us the right shoulder at 51k. This is in confluence with an oversold RSI approaching the premium reversal area and an interesting looking Deep Bullish Shark harmonic if we get to this level: All of these signs are pointing towards a pretty slick reversal BTC in the near future, either right around here or a little lower. Don't panic, The bulls are still running the show.💸
by cryptosince1963
NULS- If You Aint Got it, Get It❗️ Before You Regret It💎NULS saw a massive breakout on BTC charts followed by a textbook retracement right back to our liquidity area. This is prime real-estate for picking up a potential long and there's PLENTY of up room left on this chart. These corrections on the market ARE NOT a bad thing. I know it seems like the sky is falling, but for growth to continue we must stay away from a parabolic top, and these small hops down are what prevents everything from crashing down. And lets be honest - It's not every day the market gives you a second chance to buy in at this level... DO NOT SQUANDER IT!
Long
by cryptosince1963
1
Is This the Bottom for Crypto? BULLS ARE STILL IN CONTROL!🚀Looking at the Total Market cap and BTCUSDT here. There's a lot of confluence showing that next week may be a very bullish reversal for all markets. TD9 is flashing buy on both BTC and the Total Market Cap. Retracement levels quite interest on both charts with EMA 100 and 50 being our supports respectively. This may indicate more bullishness for the overall market than for btc. Likewise we can see the total2 marketcap excluding btc, has bounced off the bottom of it's down channel and now has retraced off it's 300 EMA. Additionally, BTC Dominance, though it tried to reverse on the correction, showed very little actual movement. However it did allow the TD9 to reset completely! Allowing us a full downtrend from here still if we wanted. This implies a heavy bullish bias towards alts! Which is great for us - as if this seeming support level fails it's like a straight bomb down to the bottom. Overall, The confluence of these signs of the various chart throughout the market points to this week being extremely bullish, which is deserved after the past week and a half of Bearish downtrend.
Long
by cryptosince1963
4
BTC - Does the climb stop here? 2 scenarios one more likely.BTC is looking like an upward channel after a volume confirmed breakdown from the upward wedge it was in before. Good consolidation at this level for a while despite the volatility, the the bottom support proving to be strong. That said uptrend from December has been broken with the November and then base uptrend to contend with. If we crush through this it's curtains for a while and likely a bullish downturn for the market as whole. This would require a big fundamental shift which doesn't seem likely. WHICH IS USUALLY WHEN IT HAPPENS DUN DUN DUUUUUUN But seriously, Fundamentals haven't shifted away from bullish since the early days of the climb, with more bullish news being released today of BTC backed loans by Signature bank in New York. Overall it looks like we've got more long term growth though the market as a whole is in a precarious position until we get confirmation of movement in one way or another. Confirmation would consist at this point of BTC breaking it's channel in one direction or the other.
by cryptosince1963
2
GVT - Retrace Almost Complete/ Rocket Fueled?🚀🚀GVT Broke out as expected and may be in an optimal hopping on point from the retrace. And what a textbook retrace it is, right to top level resistance, now turned support. I expect this to move very quickly soon, MACD is still showing an uptrend despite the retrace and RSI is somewhat irrelevant here because of the length of the downtrend but has given us a little breathing room. TD9 also just finished a 9 up before the retrace, leaving us with fresh canvas for a liftoff to occur.
GLong
by cryptosince1963
AST - So Much More To Give Us!🚀🚀It turns out AST is going on an absolute tear - who would have seen that coming! Oh wait - Sorry had to fluff myself up a little there right? So looking like the gators mouth is wide open here, essentially a reverse consolidation wedge if you think about it that way - the price swings will get wilder and more volatile with time. Luckily the aligator is pointing upwards here and it looks like there's no much down room left on this chart at this point. I expect AST to hit $1+ USD which would put us around here for long term targets. BUT fact is AST is a great project and something of a sleeper that deserves more attention than it has historically gotten.
ALong
by cryptosince1963
1
💸QKC - More Gains Incoming, More Targets Mapped!💸easy 145% on the last QKCBTC movement Looking like we can shape up for another 100% plus leg up here. Very bullish looking chart, breakout into a very bullish retrace. We'll have to see if we bullflag here or breakout: volume has declined significantly and we could realistically consolidate for a while at this level from a purely TA perspecitve. That said the alts are flying, QKC is in a great place fundamentally and appears to just be getting better with time as fine wine and good crypto projects tend to do. Next targets are mapped for a bit as I won't be updating this idea for a while likely.
Long
by cryptosince1963
2