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Blowofftop

Bitcoin: The anatomy of a blow off topIntroduction I have seen quite a few blow off tops while I have been in crypto and of course bitcoin's is the most famous. One of the most annoying things about charting is when you have to redraw your lines over and over based off the price action. Typically triangles get bigger and bigger or wedges get bigger and bigger and and blow off tops are typified by rising wedges that break down into an even larger wising wedge, and that wedge breaks up and we have our blow off top. Charting The bold black trend line is our wedge resistance and it is damn near straight up. The 2017-18 structure has a purple solid line for the smaller wedge support and the blue line shows the larger wedge support. The bollinger band is set for the weekly timeframe and only shows the midline and top because of how the bottom can distort the chart. The right chart formation our current structure. The blue and purple trendlines are dashed because they are still preliminary. The buy box is a previous ATH that help set up the black trendline that defines the wedge resistance. Trades implied in this post (without giving advice on any) Short until we get to the buy box with stops based on the rising wedge resistance. Very risky because we could still move higher into the current rising wedge. Buy in the buy box and have stops based on a very small wick. Permits for a tight stop for people that want to use a lot of margin. Zooming in On our last cycle we still consolidated on top of the black trend line of the large rising wedge. From there we had a large squirt up and then formed another very tight rising wedge for the topping structure which lead into a descending triangle. In other words, there was about a month where people could have traded out of their bitcoin trades into stable coins or alts that were moving upward. This cycle appears to be moving much faster. You may not get a whole month to cycle out if you are so inclined. Also shown is the fib channels with green anchors to show where the points of contact are. I have found the fib channel to be very useful, especially in charts like BTC where there are double bottoms with have higher lows on the zero line. Due to volatility of blow off tops I can't guarantee any particular level if BTC breaks out of its rising wedge and then forms a topping pattern between any two fib levels that will be a major sign for me to cut bait on bitcoin. I do have a current forecast of reaching the 2 and ultimately bottoming out on a return to just above the 1 level. Just for Funsies for the Never Sellers out there Here is a chart that shows the 3 level extension for the never sellers out there who will just be accumulating through everything a little every paycheck and maybe buying more on big red moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
6
Sell in may and go away...Imagine if... - SP500 peaks right below 4500 - Head And Shoulders price target at 1.0 Fib Extension from march 2020 lows - New money will be told the old saying "Sell in may and go away", and will not fear that a bearmarket is slowly starting - New money will buy in all summer, providing liquidity for larger players to exit - New Lower High will be made Late Summer/Early Fall 2021 - Lower Low will be made, new money still in denial - Will keep buying stocks after a bounce made after first lower low - Another Lower high is made - Multi-year bear market begins - Stock will become "boring" again
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Veuvee
Bitcoin Blowoff top on Cinco De Mayo.. compare this to NASDAQI have analyzed the entire history of bitcoin price and I can say with certainty we are experiencing a 2x faster cycle than the one we had in 2017. This will end with a blowoff top in May followed by a 2-3 month bear market. I've analyzed 100 years of NASDAQ and DJIA charts, and compared them to every tiny mini cycle bitcoin has had, as well as the long term Bitcoin chart as seen here. I can also speculate that the Bitcoin chart from 2009 - 2021 is about 60% of the way through a bigger cycle that should end with a blowoff top in approximately 2030. If you have doubts feel free to discuss, but this is a very big deal.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by RickSmash
7
NASDAQ Will Have a Blowoff Top by AugustI have studied the hell out of this, and I can say for certain we are about to experience a wild bull run and then a blowoff top. This is the final stage of a 12.5 year cycle. This exact cycle took place from 1974 - 2000. The Nasdaq from 1974-2021 looks identical to Bitcoin from 2015-2021. In 2015 the charts obviously did not look the same at all. Bitcoin has mirrored 48 years of the NASDAQ immaculately, except it did it in 6-7 years. Bitcoin is now only slightly behind the NASDAQ and on pace to catch up within two months. This may be the most significant long term chart comparison in history and nobody is talking about it. Both are set to have a blowoff top by the summer, It's undeniable.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by RickSmash
3
$BTC and #ALT coins idea: Identifying the end of the bull marketI've been getting questions from a few friends and people about when the "top" will be in and what my plans are to try and be part of the "smart money" that sells the top and buys the bottom. Now first let me be clear, if anyone knew when the top and bottom were going to be? They'd be the richest person in the history of time... but that's the point; No one knows when the top or bottom will happen, so we have to go off of what we know! One great way to look for the changing winds in the market cycles is to look at history and see some patterns that might have shown themselves. In these two charts, we're looking at the weekly $BTC price action, and the historical XLM cap. The point is so that we can see when the TRUE #altSeason actually happened, and to notice something interesting about it. In the weeks of Dec 18th, and 25th, 2017, and Jan 1st 2018 bitcoin had reached its all time high of $19,891.99, and subsequently corrected in the following week to $10,400.00, and then pumped back to $17178. During that three week period XLM's market cap increased from 2.5 billion to 17.5 billion dollars. IN 3 WEEKS!!!! THAT my friends was the first real #Altseason! and one of the greatest opportunities ever to sell the top. However, a TON of people didn't pay attention, and in their euphoric state thought to themselves "this will keep going up forever!!! Everyone is going to get rich!!!" The point I'm trying to make here, is that history doesn't always repeat itself... but it often rhymes. I personally am committed to NOT holding a bunch of bags of prospective alt coins, and I will be looking for this blow off top, and the following couple weeks as real opportunities to cash out of my bags and sell into the euphoria. I'll be holding on to most of my $LINK for staking, as I don't care what price it goes to in the next 5 years. I'm hyper bullish on the need for decentralized oracle networks and Chainlink is the solo mover in that market and they've also built a fantastic network to boot. I think their partnerships alone speak the truth of that. I will also be holding ALL of my $BTC. I'm never selling that, as I would like to avoid the tax consequences of that, as well as avoiding getting stuck holding a hyper inflating USD. Plan ahead, do your research and don't be consumed by greed, and you'll make it fam. We're all gonna make it :).
CRYPTOCAP:XLM
by its_maxbro
11
Did we just repeat the June and September tops in $NDX $QQQ ???We have all seen the madness of the markets and crowds this week, WSB heroes are killing off hedgies with no remorse. The last time we saw similar price action to today in tech stocks was June, and more recently September. These instances followed a well defined sequence. ✅ A large selloff in 30Y and 10Y bonds, followed by a bottom and recovery ✅ Massive FAANMG blocks hitting the top signaling that the "froth" is being created so that big funds can exit at the top ✅ A capitulation zone where after trending steadily up a parabolic price finisher creates a top ✅ A topping candlestick pattern, such as a Hanging man ✅ A seasonality profile top heading into an FOMC statement Let's go over these criteria!
TVC:NDQ
by mortdiggiddy
5
RENA SOLA - Signs showing a Blow Off is forming Timeframe Viewing behaviour from 1 year time frame perspective Trading from 1 month perspective The potential for downside Oscillator shows peaking Price is highly extended above trailing edge The potential for continuation : Volume Flow still shows good strength VIXY showing low risk environment Summary : Risks now outweigh Rewards Note: Reason for trades from two brokerages: Checking performance of Selfwealth brokerage against Interactive brokers
NYSE:SOL
by georgerai
1
How to Spot Blow-off Tops - ES1!Here are 3 blow-off tops and 1 failed attempt which all occurred in the last 7 months. Successful completions are marked in solid black. The failed attempt is shown in dotted black. On all 4 attempts, the price accelerated upwards to different degrees. Each target can be roughly measured based on the price move. Notice how the failed blow-off begins closer to a price bottom than the successful ones did. Volume was either steadily increasing or declining during successful blow-offs, compared to the unsuccessful attempt when volume was not clearly trending. ROC (momentum) was increasing with all 4 attempts. The blow-offs were successful when momentum was at 0 or positive at the start of each blow-off. Disclaimer: This is my opinion. This is not advice. Trading involves risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ValkyrieBlue
FIVN: Either to break to new ATH, or get pulled back to 200 maThe weekly looks bearish unless it can breakout... the daily confirms H&S, plus has already touched down on 50ma -- that 90ma is weakkk support, so if it falls (through cloud), then it will drop sharply back to 200ma, and then likely build up tons of support here and continue back up. I say this because this market is clearly irrationally bullish, and this company is apparently a leader in its industry. Personally, I feel the entire market should still be down since initial pandemic drop. That pullback was NOT just b/c of COVID-19 -- market was due for MAJOR correction for months leading up to that... honestly, maybe the good part of last year, but MM's and irrational bulls pumped AAPL and TSLA to the moon before dumping. Once market initially crashed, to squeeze options contracts and hedge losses, it was artificially propped and then pumped back up to "breaking point" of bullish territory, and now likely dragging out next inevitable drop for same reasons. Be careful with long positions -- either blow off top rally to come to squeeze out shorts, or just falling right away... get your popcorn and puts ready, and add in increments for optimal gains. *NOT ACTUAL TRADING ADVICE*
NASDAQ:FIVNShort
by ogdabber
NASDAQ | Parabolic Curve | V-Shape Recovery | Blow-Off Top Todays Chart – Nasdaq 100 Index – Trading in blue-sky territory respecting the parabolic curve. Points to consider: - V-shape recovery - Respecting parabolic formation - Bullish trend- consecutive higher lows - Fibonacci extension target approaching (4.236) - RSI above 50 - RSI bearish divergence - Multi confluence support (200 EMA + .618 Fibonacci retracement + structural support) Conjuring a V-shaped recovery, NDX is looking to put in a blow-off top as the finale to what has been quite the euphoric bull run. Despite the 30% market crash, NDX continues its higher low projection, respecting the parabolic formation as it approaches the 4.236 Fibonacci extension target. The RSI is above 50, showing strength in the market immediate market, however, there is a technical bearish divergence indicating weakness in the forthcoming months. Historically, NDX has retraced to the 200 EMA during bear markets which is indicative of a reversal to the 200 EMA being eventual. Furthermore, the .618 Fibonacci retracement (pulled from the 4.236 extension) is in confluence with structural support, thus a retrace to the support zone is probable. Overall, in my opinion, Nasdaq needs to put in reversal price action (lower highs, lower lows) to validate a short trade to the technical target below.
TVC:NDQShort
by Kudiiee
Watching for possible blow-off top, then shorting into JulyAs my followers know, I've been mostly sitting in cash and silver waiting for sanity to return to this market. Y'all bought stocks, and all I bought was popcorn, and it turns out the joke's on me. Here's how big the gap between price and fundamentals has gotten. On June 1, GDPNow reduced its Q2 GDP forecast to -52.8%. This is down over 10% in the last week. As stocks approach all-time highs, the US Congressional Budget Office forecasted a couple days ago that GDP over the next ten years will be about $7.9 trillion lower than previously forecast, and it may take 10 years for employment to return to pre-pandemic levels. In corporate earnings, FactSet notes that the consensus estimate for 2020 SPX earnings per share has declined by 28.0% while $SPX price has decreased by only 6.2% since December 31. We are finally seeing a slowdown in downward estimate revisions, but it remains to be seen whether estimates have actually reached a bottom. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 21.5 is at its highest level since January 2002, even as the risks are rising. We've added over $4 trillion in global corporate debt this year, even as credit rating agencies downgrade existing debt at an unprecedented pace. S&P Global has downgraded 247 issues in the last month and now has 1,287 on its potential downgrade list, surpassing the previous record of 1,028 from April 2009. So what's driving the indexes upward? Three things: unprecedented speculation from zero-commission retail traders, Fed liquidity, and the hope of more stimulus from Congress. I definitely expect the disconnect between price and fundamentals to go away eventually, but the question is when it will happen and what the catalyst will be. The combination of nationwide riots and technical resistance might cause at least a short-term pullback. We're now approaching some important resistance levels in both SPY and Nasdaq. SPY is approaching its top from March, and QQQ is approaching all-time highs. Generally I would expect a technical pullback from these levels and possibly the beginning of a big correction, and it seems like a lot of other traders are thinking along the same lines. We're currently seeing the largest futures net short position in SPY since 9/2015. However, I've decided not to play this particular resistance level, because IMO the massive short interest creates the possibility of shorts getting crushed in a short squeeze. We've also entered a clearance area on the volume profile, which means there's not much resistance until we hit about 322. The 9/2015 high in short interest led to an 8% gain the following month. Only in the four months after that did SPY finally sell off 14%. It also seems possible that we'll get another Congressional stimulus package in the next month, including either another round of stimulus checks, or an infrastructure bill, or both. Personally I am looking for the correction to start in late June or early July. In the last decade or two, June has been the last month of the bull market season, followed by seasonal weakness in July-September. June tends to be an especially strong month for tech stocks, and we're likely to see that pattern repeat this year. Waiting till July gives stimulus optimism and economic reopening optimism the opportunity to play themselves out, perhaps climaxing in a blow-off top as shorts get squeezed up to 322 ahead of the correction. Any parabolic move in SPY would be the signal to start shorting this market as we head into seasonal weakness in the summer.
AMEX:SPY
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
11