SLIGHT RELIEF TO CHFJPYCHFJPY has now come back to a key support level and technically this market looks to be oversold which could lead to some short term upside. Looking at the lower timeframes we can see a nice trendline resistance that if broken could lead to some short term upside with targets of the daily lows.
Blueberrymarkets
GBPNZD SHORTS IN PLAYWe are also looking NZD longs this week and into the following weeks if price acts appropriately so looking to our cross pairs for potential opportunities and especially looking at the weaker currencies. This led us to look at GBPNZD after it came into key weekly resistance. The GBP is under increasing pressure as BREXIT negotiation continue without any positive news for the UK so far although news of how the German manufacturing will be affected when the UK leaves the EU could go in favour of the UK with the EU likely to take this into consideration. However this is only speculation and we can see that the market has gapped lower this week and should see further downside. Ideally we would like to see the gap close before looking for shorts as we can see a minor resistance up at 2.0235. We would likely see sellers re-enter the market here with targets at the daily 50% fib retracement and support of 2.0000.
AUDUSD UPSIDE TO COME?Looking across our major currency pairs the Australian Dollar sticks out as our COT analysis shows a significant increase in commercial and non-commercial long contracts over the week. The only element the COT analysis can't give us is timing. So this is where our technical analysis comes into play. The daily chart currently shows a down trending market however this has been the case for AUDUSD for the whole year and we should expect some upside to come especially around the end of the year where AUD usually sees a boost seasonally. Looking for a bullish pattern here before looking for long trades either with a break above the trendline resistance or a bullish pattern potentially a double bottom pattern forming confirming our ideas to go long.
GBPUSD SHORT TERM DOWNSIDE TO COMEAs we know this weekend Theresa May has been speaking with the EU discussing Brexit matters in detail and Fridays close finished very bearish for the GBP. We expect this downside to continue at least down to the short term trendline where the market then needs to make a decision.
NZDJPY LONG OPPORTUNITYNZDJPY has found support at the key weekly level of 72.40. If you take a look at the weekly chart you can see the long term trendline resistance above.
Looking at the 4hr timeframe we can see the market has bounced and could be setting up for as an inverse head and shoulders pattern which could
show upside to come. Wait for the market to create a new higher low and form the right shoulder around the minor support of 72.80 before looking for the long.
EURAUD AT KEY RESISTANCEEURAUD has seen a spike back into the key resistance zone of 1.6300 and looks to be struggling to break through the level.
Commitment of trader reports are highlighting that commerical long contracts on the AUD are building which could lead to a boost for the
commodity based currency. Combing this with the correlation of the USDCNY being at key resistance we could see a boost to the AUD.
With this market being at a resistance point it makes sense to look at this market for potential opportunities into next week.
Currently on the daily chart we can see the rejection at the resistance zone and could assume once we had the bearish close that price
could be forming a double top pattern with the neckline sitting at the key support of 1.6000. If we start to see lower lows and lower highs
form on the 4hr chart we can look for trading opportunities down to key support.
WTI...WHAT'S NEXTWe have seen the key resistance zone of $75.00 hold with price falling down to $71.00 into the supporting daily trendline. Looking at the weekly timeframe currently if it finishes as a bearish lower low lower close candle we could expect the market to continue lower on this timeframe.
How would we look to get involved with this?
Well the market is sitting at an area of support so we should expect the market to hold here. We could from here expect the market to re-test the $75.00 level where we can look for a double top pattern to come into play.
Or
We could look for a break and close below the supporting trendline. This would be a good indication that the market wants to test lower prices.
GOLD TO BREAK HIGHER?With the trade tensions between the US and China growing we have seen the price of Gold range as the correlation between CNYUSD and GOLD still remains close. In the last 24 hours of trading we have seen a slight shift in sentiment across the markets including a 4% drop in the NASDAQ yet Gold remained fairly quiet. However now we are approaching the key level of 1215.00 which the market has struggled to get above during the trade tension crisis. There is an opportunity however if the market can break and close above the key resistance we could look for short term longs in line with the market conditions.
AUDJPY TREND CONTINUATIONAUDJPY 4hr chart continues it's downtrend making lower lows and lower highs. We are now seeing the market pullback into minor resistance at 79.80 previous structure lows. We can also see looking left that it has been used as support and resistance numerous amounts of time in the past adding to our trade idea. We also can see a 50% fib retracement lining up with the area as well as the 127.2 fib extension at our key weekly support. Looking for the trade from the resistance with stops above the highs and targets of the weekly support.
USDNOK DOWNSIDE TO RESUMEUSDNOK recently saw downside after coming into a key weekly trendline resistance combined with the Norges Bank (the central bank) talking about the potential to hike interest rates in 2019 as their economy continues to grow. Looking to the USDNOK pair technically we can see the market created new lows after rejecting the weekly trendline resistance. Using our Fibonacci from swing high to swing low we can see the 38.2 Fib lines up with our key horizontal resistance making it a great place to look for continuation short.