BTC overbought ?if someone tell you BTC is overbought. show him that monthly chart.. and this target is very conservative.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Special made for Babitos Koksalitos !
BLX
path to 100kgm,
as we continue to consolidate and fear begins to rise, it becomes blatantly clear to me as to what is truly going on.
we're clearly in a fourth wave.
fourth waves are notorious for creating fear, uncertainty, and doubt. they make you question weather the trend is truly over, they bore you with sideways price action which makes you hand over your hard earned coin to the one who is re-accumulating, in preparation for the next mark-up phase.
the person who is accumulating will buy everything you have to sell, 1:1. not a penny more.
whenever you run out of coin to sell, the accumulator will begin the mark-up phase, and you will likely begin to fomo back into the market after awhile, which will cause an aggressive \ parabolic push up.
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this is a time for accumulation,
not for capitulation.
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w5 target = 100k
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🌙
bitcoin hits 749k into 2025.gm,
in previous cycles, the duration from cycle low to cycle high has typically been roughly 1,000–1,100 days. currently, we are 742 days in, which suggests we still have about a year until the "expected top." this projected top also aligns with the global liquidity index in q4 of 2025.
the way i interpret this current structure is straightforward:
from the november 2022 low to the march 2024 high, the price action visually resembles five waves up. this is followed by a clean three-wave correction into august of 2024.
from the low in august of 2024, bitcoin appears to have formed a clean five-wave impulse to the upside and is now approaching a top. in theory, once this top is established, we should expect a three-wave corrective move to backtest the previous support. this support corresponds to the 2021/2024 highs and the previous accumulation zone.
hypothetically, backtesting the prior supply zone would likely liquidate many late long positions, providing a full sentiment reset. this reset could allow bitcoin to rebound with significant force, potentially reaching unprecedented levels.
my estimated upside target for q4 2025 is approximately $749,000.
✌️
ps. in my last bullish trade, i pulled at 9,000% trade on btc... and 42 alt trades, some of which ran as high as 22,000%.
view last bull post here:
BITCOIN BLX 1 Month Now, the Monthly chart is nothing to F with!
Take a look at the RSI with it at the bottom by the blue line, every time it was down there the next move up was a Bull run.
The Stochastic RSi is already curling up with the mouth opening about to gasp some air as it heads to the up side. Can we see continuation? KKEP AN EYE ON THIS!
A lot point to a Run to the upside is near, don't sleep on this.
CPI numbers tomorrow morning will cause Volatility, be ready. 8:30 am ET/ 5:30AM PT <---
Good Luck Out There!
$btc Weekly Analysis Historically, price between these green lower level consolidation is a low risk buy for long term hodlers. But as you can clearly see, bitcoin is heading for lower and lower volatility until one day the trend breaks.
If you scroll right you can see the bull band and bear band come to a point.... what will happen then God only knows. If lower band breaks and we retouch the previous resistance at 7k, obviously my statement is void because my trend lines are broke.
Also the whole c0vid-crash is so weird to me, was it a red herring, does the support price achieved (around) 3/18/20 still hold value even though it could be a 'red herring'? I say absolutely it matters and we should incorporate that support price in our charting and calculations.
DISCLAIMER======= ' [ ]
My Log regression is not calculated with anything but the curve tool, please take it with a grain of salt, if i have any algebra friends with knowledge of logarithmic regression please feel free to reach out as your input would be greatly appreciated.
Bitcoin has hit its bottomIt is very likely Bitcoin has already reached its lowest it will reach for this cycle. It is smart to start buying in these levels to take advantage of the consistent cyclical nature of Bitcoin.
Will Bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line again ? The point of this chart is not to look at future peaks, although we will touch upon it. The point is to take a dive into the indicator called the BTC log regression {Rainbow Dark} that is based on the Fibonacci sequence and the possible transition to the lower band from the top band.
Bitcoins entire history has been on the upper band of this log and in the recent crash of this year it has broken below. It did break this upper band support once before it the covid crash of 2020 marked with the orange circle. Price action broke through but as we can see it quickly recovered and held as support into the eventual bull run. This sequence of events seems to have left us a couple of clues, being the first time there was a substantial breach of the bottom and the bull run not hitting the top. I think yes, it could telling us that Bitcoin is now transitioning {reset} to the lower part of the band and it's most likely could be the new trending range. To confirm this theory we need two touches, one on top and one on the bottom.
In my opinion the only questions that remains is which line will be touched first and what will be the path. I do believe the top of this lower band could be the top of Bitcoins next bull run and the bottom of could be the bear market, of course only time will tell. I do not believe we ever go to top of the band ever again and could possible be the new resistance point for future bull market tops.
Just purely on looking at this lower band and assuming that we have a new bull market that tops in March of 2025, price point is showing a possible of just over 200k top.
My speculation is bitcoin moves towards the top first and then touch the lower part of the band later next year at relatively the same price point as now which would mark a double bottom that ultimately sparks the new bull run. There is only one thing for sure, Bitcoin will surprise everyone.
Keys to look at is the stochastic RSI. this will show which way momentum is going.
This is not financial advice and should not be taken as such. it's an observation.
Thanks for looking and leave comments below.
BITCOIN - Price Action Update... Looking For An Entry Point...In this video, I analyze Bitcoin’s price pattern since 2022 and aim to develop a perspective that could help us trade it higher.
Using a process of elimination, I identify what appears to be the precise wave count, allowing me to project a potential target for the current movement.
This approach is beneficial because markets rarely move in a straight line; if there’s an opportunity for two significant trades, being aware of that possibility can help us avoid premature moves.
If I observe the smaller wave structures aligning with this analysis, I’ll share a long trade idea, complete with a 15-minute chart and a follow-up video explaining my thought process through the AriasWave methodology.
As a reminder, while AriasWave differs from Elliott Wave, it still incorporates the concept of alternation from Elliott Wave theory.
BITCOIN - The Next Target: Minimum $118K...After months away from analyzing the Bitcoin chart, I revisited it and identified a straightforward count, clearing away previous complexities to better estimate Bitcoin’s next target.
Based on this count, we’re now in Wave v of Wave 5, marking the final movement in this 5-Wave sequence that began in 2008.
In this video, I’ll also cover the key levels to watch if you’re looking to trade this move higher.
Stop Level: $58,971
Target 1: $118,000
Target 2: $174,000
This is just an idea and is not investment advice. Always trade with caution.
What if bonds are kinda important?Lets draw few parallel lines. Looks like cross of green supports shows start of the party and crossing red resistances means music isn't playing anymore. Could be coincidence. Looks like green support is coming. If we pierce it could be bullish. Unfortunately this time is different because of inversion. We will see.
A Journey Through Halving Events, Fear & Greed DynamicsMastering Bitcoin’s Market Cycles: A Journey Through Halving Events, Fear & Greed Dynamics, and FOMO Surges
Hello everyone,
Over the years, I’ve dedicated countless hours to studying Bitcoin’s price movements across multiple timeframes, focusing on the interplay between supply and demand, greed and fear, and the ever-pivotal halving cycles. From my earliest analysis in April 2019, where I laid out the foundational trendlines and the importance of the halving setup, to the more recent explorations of Bitcoin’s FOMO Cycles, I’ve sought to decode the complex mechanisms driving this revolutionary asset.
The Foundation: April 2019 Analysis
In April 2019, I introduced a chart that I considered to be the ultimate guide for understanding Bitcoin’s long-term trendlines, grounded in historical price action, key resistance levels, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a measure of market sentiment. This chart underscored the importance of major resistance levels at $6,000, $8,500, and $10,000 USD—critical zones that needed to be "eaten" before the next halving to validate the bullish thesis.
You can view the original chart below this description and also in the comment section.
. This chart successfully predicted the major price movements leading up to the 2020 halving, proving the strength of using historical resistance levels and market sentiment to forecast Bitcoin’s behavior.
At the time, I emphasized that approximately 80% of all Bitcoin had already been mined, with a significant portion of that supply likely lost forever. This supply scarcity, combined with the halving cycle reducing the inflow of new coins, set the stage for future price appreciation. My analysis hinged on the idea that supply and demand dynamics, coupled with investor psychology, drive cyclical market behavior—an idea that continues to hold true today.
Revisiting the Halving Cycles: The Key to Predicting Future Moves
Fast forward to July 2022, and I revisited the concept of Bitcoin’s halving cycles with an updated analysis that sought to replicate the forecasting success of the past. This time, I focused on how the halving cycle—where block rewards for mining are cut in half every four years—plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price formation. Each halving event historically leads to a significant supply shock, which, combined with increasing demand, often triggers major bull markets.
The Emergence of FOMO Cycles: Understanding Sentiment-Driven Surges
Building on these concepts, I introduced the idea of FOMO Cycles—phases within Bitcoin’s broader halving cycle characterized by explosive, fear-driven price surges. These FOMO Cycles represent the moments when Bitcoin transitions from periods of consolidation or decline into rapid growth, driven by a market-wide fear of missing out on the next big rally.
Here’s how these cycles typically unfold:
Pre-Halving Accumulation: In the months leading up to a halving, smart money begins accumulating Bitcoin, anticipating the reduced supply. This phase often goes unnoticed by the broader market but sets the groundwork for the upcoming FOMO Cycle.
Halving and Media Hype: As the halving approaches, media coverage intensifies, drawing more retail investors into the market. This increased attention marks the beginning of the FOMO Cycle, as more investors rush to buy Bitcoin before prices skyrocket.
Post-Halving Surge: Following the halving, the reduced supply, combined with increasing demand, often leads to an exponential price increase. This is the peak of the FOMO Cycle, where prices can reach new all-time highs in a relatively short period.
Correction and Consolidation: After the initial surge, the market typically experiences a correction as early investors take profits. Understanding this phase is crucial for managing risk and locking in gains before the market corrects.
Tools and Strategies for Navigating Bitcoin’s Cycles
To help you make the most of these market cycles, I’ve refined several key tools and strategies:
Fear & Greed Index: This indicator provides a real-time measure of market sentiment, helping to identify when fear or greed is dominating the market. Extreme fear often signals a buying opportunity, while extreme greed can indicate that a correction is near.
On-Chain Analysis: By analyzing on-chain metrics such as active addresses, transaction volume, and miner outflows, you can gain insights into the behavior of different market participants and anticipate potential shifts in market dynamics.
RSI Divergence: Watching for divergences between price action and the RSI can help identify moments when the market is overbought or oversold.
Historical Context and Future Implications
By looking back at the April 2019 analysis and comparing it with more recent developments, we can see how these cycles repeat over time, driven by the same underlying forces of supply and demand, amplified by investor psychology. As we approach the next halving in April 2024, understanding these patterns could provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s future price movements.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, mastering these cycles is essential for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile market. By combining technical analysis with a deep understanding of market psychology, you can position yourself to capitalize on the next big move while managing your risk effectively.
Final Thoughts and Historical Successes
Looking back at the historical context and the successes of my previous predictions, it’s clear that understanding Bitcoin’s market cycles—especially in the context of halving events and FOMO surges—can provide valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors. By combining these technical insights with an awareness of macroeconomic factors, you can position yourself to capitalize on the next big move in the market.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, mastering these cycles is essential for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile market. And as always, while this analysis is a powerful tool, remember to stay informed, stay patient, and enjoy the journey.
Disclaimer: This analysis is an attempt to predict future price movements based on historical data and technical indicators. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Chachain
a favorable election.the chart structure has changed slightly, for the better in my eyes.
the chart now favors the bull case—a bull case which will take a lot of lives before beginning.
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what i'm portraying here is a massive, weekly bullish 1-2 setup—similar to the one we experienced between 2018 and 2022. the dip for "the covid crash" was wave 2. i'm anticipating we see a similar situation here before the next great bull run begins. "the crash" will likely be triggered by the "fed pivot," which takes place on september 18th.
if all goes well, we should bottom out into the election—maybe slightly beyond it, into the winter time. tough to gauge exactly how long a drop like that will take, but it's easy to say that it'll be caused by a massive liquidation.
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while i am anticipating a sweep of the all-time high first, there is a chance we do not get it.
while i am anticipating a raid of 28k, it is possible we go lower .
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stay safe, fellas,
things are only getting started.
🌙
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ps. i posted this last night, but it did not go through for whatever reason.
BLX is halving a restart?I put all the price history into this frame. This cycle does not look out of ordinary so far. Of course assuming this time will be the same is silly nevertheless it is fun to watch how each past cycle was developing day by day from halving point.
BLX Global Final View - BTC - $1 000 000 ?According to Wave Theory:
In the impulses of a wave of the same degree, channelization is observed
2 wave is most often a zigzag
2 wave is most often a deep correction
3 wave equals 1.618*1 wave.
The 3rd wave is the most powerful
4 wave is most often flat according to the rules of alternation
5 wave is mostly equal to 1 wave
BUT
Bitcoin is a commodity market
And in commodity markets, the 5th wave is most often extended.
At what price will YOU exit?
Update: I wasn't bearish enough on $BTC, $48-$52k coming soonTurns out after analyzing the chart again, I wasn't bearish enough on BTC. In my last idea , I thought we would move down to $57k, while I still think that's likely, I wasn't bearish enough because I think the risk is actually to GETTEX:48K -52k (which I don't think anyone is expecting, especially here).
Everyone calling for $72k to break which creates a short squeeze higher, but I don't think anyone is expecting a fall below the May low...
If you look at price action, it's very similar to the top that formed around May of 2021. The week that sent price from $60k back to $33k. Then we went on to form one more high in November for the final top.
While I don't think the exact same thing will happen, I do think something similar is going to happen. I think we'll see price move down to the GETTEX:48K -52k support which still hasn't been retested. After that, the possibility opens up to go to the upper resistance levels.
I think the move is likely to happen in the next two weeks - four weeks. Tighten stops if you're long and watch price action closely, because if the move happens, it's not going to give you a chance to get out.
Alts will get slaughtered.
BTC CorrectionWill CRYPTOCAP:BTC undergo a sharp correction after the distribution in the summer of 2019?
BTCUSD - Assessing the Current Structure...This is a preliminary assessment of the overall structure, building on the previous analysis, which I still consider the most likely scenario. While I acknowledge the potential for further upside, I cannot ignore the strength of the overall trend.
From a logical standpoint, it seems we have at least a few more months of sideways movement in Bitcoin.
The trend remains weak, which is unsurprising to me and explains my recent lack of updates. I only post when there is notable progress in the structure.
I still have much work to do before I can form stronger views across the board, but I will do so in due time.
Fibonacci MaximalistJoin me and become a Fibonacci Maximalist. Thanks be to Leonardo Bonacci and the Italians. All my sells are at 360-400k. All glory to God.
Updated version of the related idea below:
The monthly on btcusd.The price confirms that it has reversed the bear market of 2022. We already knew this thanks to the analyzes of the lower time frames. With the engulfing bear not yet confirmed, the price draws a new price structure above the previous ath on a monthly timeframe, I know this is something we have already seen, but now we have the full picture and it is not something to be underestimated after we have seen on What resistance levels there was the first significant profit taking. Btc could catch its breath a bit before starting to run again, because with this confirmation which sees the sequence of highs and lows rising and the number of monthly sessions greater than the previous bear, it is only a matter of time, the price will take the direction of the rise and it will do so forcefully, when we cannot know, we have the long-term trend on our side, this would be enough even if we cannot predict the future.
BITCOIN - My Thoughts On This Price Action Plus More...When I take my time to compose my posts, it typically indicates that I'm engaged in background analysis. Through experience, I've come to understand that when one's mind is solely focused on trading, important factors can be overlooked. Instead, I've adopted a habit of conducting thorough analysis. Currently, I've identified a potential long-term count for Bitcoin that suggests we may be at a peak.
In presenting this perspective, I offer various clues to support this notion. However, the most significant indicator is the prevailing pattern at the market highs, which indicates a probable downward movement in price. Ultimately, the decision to act on this analysis hinges on one's trading strategy and risk management approach. While certainty is elusive in trading, the observable price action at the highs provides compelling evidence to consider a short position.
After reviewing the accompanying video and examining the evidence presented, I invite you to share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.
The monthly on btcusd.The March Candle closes with approximately +16%, creating a price structure above the previous historical high drawn in 2021. A very strong signal regarding the long term, this favors the bulls in trying to snatch convenient prices until the short period will allow it by correcting on the most important supports. The last price structure that could act as support is in the 58k USD area, although between 63k and 61k USD there is another interesting area. What is striking is the fact that only in the January candle there was a correction, so looking at the fractal you notice similarities more with the bullish movement of 2016/17 than with the previous one 2020/21. Perhaps a new paradigm given that the main players in this market have changed.
