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btc 7-18 update ~good morning my peoples o/ first off, i'd just like to say, if you caught that long - you da man. secondly, i moved 100% to cash about 2 hours ago. thirdly, my upside target was hit from last nights post: check it out if you haven't: (if you watched my video update yesterday, you knew about this short squeeze, and you knew exactly how high it was going to go). ----- let's talk about the data. as of me writing this, there was a massive long position opened near the absolute top of this move, you know how it goes. fomoers fomo, then get liquidated -> creating a downward spiral. - open interest is sky rocketing into this push up (bearish). - got these 8H dots showing up, signaling significant bearish divergence behind the scenes; here was the last few times this signal has appeared. you can be the judge of this picture: - daily hidden bearish divergence, which is quite prevalent as of now. it can get over exaggerated, as price pushes into the extremes. invalidation of the hidden bear sits at 32k - that is also the level of my bearish invalidation. - we are approaching the daily ichimoku cloud, which has posed as significant resistance in the past. - most of the shorts have been liquidated, but there are a few stragglers remaining. - risk is to the downside for mm, but they could prolong this bull trap awhile longer to get as much liquidity as possible on the way down. ----- overall, my bias has shifted as of this moment - i do wholeheartedly believe we will see new lows. the move down will be far more aggressive than the last one, and it's going to come unexpectedly - like a category 5 hurricane. july 28~30th is the only window you need to know about that is when the market theoretically will pivot, and can take everything from everyone who does not know. ----- ps. this move can easily get over-extended to around 25~26k - that would be the absolute extreme. ----- shared on 7-11 (same upside target for now)
by notoriousbids
8
btc 7-17 (alternative path)good afternoon, this is the alternative path. as of this morning, btc has entered into another quartervois - creating a second potential trajectory. --- if this general area up here is held as support, it could be categorized as a flat. if the flat maintains structure, we could see a short squeeze, as there was quite a bit of shorts opened over night. could squeeze all the way up to 23k before pivoting down into the anticipated x-wave. --- primary scenario:
by notoriousbids
1
btc 7-17 update ~good morning, if you watched my last few videos, you'll know where my minds at. 👇 👇 👇 --- i continue to see an increase in price into the end of this month, to be more precise, into july 30th. we will likely see a fairly large dip into august. depending on how it comes down will be the most important. --- market is currently at a significant crossroad, and what comes next will be highly reliant on how we pullback into august. --- --- --- check out my two primary projections into the next few months via: bull- bear-
by notoriousbids
5
btc 7-16 update pt.2good afternoon o/ previous idea was invalidated; going to try this one more time. --- as of this moment, the local structure does look like a clean 5 waves up. i'm going to be looking for 3 waves down after this fifth wave is completed. likely going to back-test 20k before it attempts to expand higher into the weeks ahead. --- ps. it's possible the fifth wave sees an extension, in which case it can go higher before we get my pull back. shorts are risky, pullbacks are for buying. --- have a great weekend 💸
by notoriousbids
2
btc 7-16 update ~good morning, little overnight bounce; came a few pips earlier than what i had expected. this bounce has risen the downside target where btc will likely find a bottom. 20k range is now the 🔑 going into tomorrow, if it holds - upward expansion is to be expected. can wick deeper into my green box to grab liquidity. --- upside target raised slightly higher as well. --- ps. it's still unknown weather the current move is corrective, or it's the beginning of a much larger move to the upside. will have a better idea before this month is over
by notoriousbids
6
btc 7-14 update ~good afternoon o/ ---- i get this vibe, that btc wants to raid the lows. it might not, but if it did it would be a prime long setup for what is to come. ----- last night i shared two scenarios, i currently favor the bull. love it or hate it, but this is my current opinion about the market. ----- if we do get this deep raid, it would be the perfect bear trap. we'd also likely see a significant short squeeze out of this range. (20%+ in a single day if all goes as planned) ✌
by notoriousbids
6
"the bull-ish case".i'll be 100% honest with you, both of these cases are bullish. once this correction is completed, btc will go into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions into the years ahead. the real challenge, is figuring out the path it takes to complete the current primary corrective wave. --- this case implies that bitcoin has completed a simple zig-zag (labeled as wave w) which would mean that we're in a phase of accumulation right now, getting ready for a move up into the x wave. --- the next 2 weeks in the market will give us a very conclusive picture as to what comes next. by the end of this month i'll be able to eliminate one of these scenarios, and play the one which is remaining. patience is 🔑. --- the upside target for this x wave sits anywhere between 34~42k, but it would most likely take awhile to get there - in a very corrective \ choppy manner. the final push down would go to about 6k into late 2023 (which would be my primary target for this particular scenario).
by notoriousbids
5
"the bear-ish case".good morning my peoples. i've analyzed this count in twenty different ways, and i've narrowed it down to two. i wanted to share the two trajectories which currently hold the highest probability in my honest professional opinion. (view next post for case #2). ---- the first case is called "the miner + hashrate capitulation event". in the recent years, each major low has been greeted with miner + hash-rate capitulation, as displayed down below: we are currently entering an area in the market which is putting significant pressure on the bitcoin miners. if the price goes any lower than 17.6k, a lot of miners will be forced to shut down their operations, and potentially begin to liquidate some of their assets to continue being able to pay for their operations. if i'm not mistaken, it roughly costs 17.6k to mine one btc, so if btc goes below this number - miners would technically be losing money per btc mined (in electricity costs, etc). most of the cycle lows have challenged the miners, and just about every time, we have seen them capitulate which caused an accelerated move to the downside. ---- is this time different? nope. if anything, this time there's more miners than ever before in history, so if btc so chooses to go down this path (which i think is inevitable, it's more a matter of when, rather than if) - then i think we're going to see one hell of a capitulation event. ---- the target for this particular scenario = 10k. though, corrections come in three waves - so this would only be the first wave. i've shared my primary macro outlook in a recent video, this is the count for it:
by notoriousbids
1
majority is always what?majority is always wrong m8, remember that. --- good morning my peoples, i talked to you about the bull, the bear, and the ugly. today i wanna talk to you about how i'm playing this current move, and my reasoning behind it. --- i'm bullish into the next 2 weeks; specifically until july 30th. i don't care about cpi data, nor the us dolla, or what the media says - don't come here talking about any of that lol. my strategy, is to inverse the majority - and if you're coming here talking about anything related to what i have mentioned above - then you are the one i am inversing 😈 --- bitcorn upside target = 25k.
Long
by notoriousbids
4
"that wasn't love, that was just hope".as you all know, the cpi report is coming out in 2 days. if that data fails to beat the current market expectations, i do wholeheartedly believe the markets will see an accelerated move to the downside. it will be lead by long liquidations, miner capitulation, and extreme panic. IF this happens, my target sits in a window between 12\13k. it doesn't have to happen right now, so this is not me saying that it will, but if it did, be ready for it. 👇 ps. 24k is still on the table if the cpi data beats expectations :]. cash is 👑
by notoriousbids
1
btc 7-10 update pt.2good evening, been thinking a bit more about this local count, and i've come up with one more potential trajectory. --- if we see a weak three wave bounce from my original downside target (view my last post for more context) 👇 then we'll likely see a slightly deeper retracement to 19.3k. --- both scenarios lead to the same upside target of roughly 24k. just need to focus on how it moves up after bouncing in the days ahead. --- will throw an update when either of these outcomes are confirmed.
by notoriousbids
1
btc 7-10 update ~good afternoon my peoples, in my last few posts, i talked about the possibility of seeing 23~24k before seeing a big pivot downwards. here's how i think we can potentially get there. --- as of this moment, shorts are out-weighing the longs. 1h hidden bullish divergence is present 1\3h stochastics have entered into oversold. btc has come down in what looks to be 3 waves: demand wicks are present, and there is an 11k long block acting as support. --- cpi data in 3 days is a total wild card. if that data beats expectations, we will see a significant short squeeze in the days ahead. the full moon will too support a significant rally - potentially higher than my current expectations. if that data fails to beat expectations, then i don't think we will see the local highs taken out, and btc along with the rest of the market will move straight down to the targets i have been discussing recently. --- ps. i am still looking for lower prices after this push up 👇
by notoriousbids
1
"hope".each dip in a bear market tends to get larger over time. reason being: >humans buy in thinking a bottom is created. >bots drive the price goes lower. >humans panic sell. ---- eventually, the larger players begin to sell off their balance sheets. -btc miners capitulate below 17.6k, as it is not profitable for them to mine btc anymore. -hash-rate declines at a very rapid pace. -massive long positions begin getting liquidated. -margin calls are created. -media headlines say "bitcoin is done forever". -retail loses all hope. 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛, 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑. ---- for now, while majority of the market remains hopeful - i will remain to be bearish. once a majority of the market loses all hope, i will flip 100% bullish. no offense to anyone, it's just part of my strategy. ---- downside target = $12,400. ✌
by notoriousbids
14
btc 7-9 update ~good evening folks --- our indicator is crossing bearish up here, indicating downside pressure in the days ahead. it's possible we see one more scam pump to about 23k before the downtrend begins. --- my downside target is between 12~13k for the time being, but there is significant support between 14~15k, so it may stop there. --- ps. that downside target will be a big one; btc could move back up to 40~50k after poking it followed by another soul crushing capitulation phase. 💰
by notoriousbids
3
full moon ritualsconsider this post completely theoretical, and don't use it as financial advice lol. --- just about every full moon over the last few years has marked a local bottom for bitcoin. as we near july 13th, all of my indicators are pointing to a long liquidation event. it's very possible that we don't get it this time around, but if we did i reckon it would look something along these lines: >raid the 17.6k lows for liquidity. >a grind up which doesn't take out the local high into the end of july. >drop to 13~14k into august before a very sharp reversal. 💰
by notoriousbids
5